Will November bring us a coup?

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Will November bring us a coup?

YouGovPoll
The real ques­tion is…why don’t the num­bers add to 100%?

Turkey’s response to the recent coup attempt has been par­tic­u­larly bru­tal. Over 200 are dead and 45,000 in jail, and many will likely be exe­cuted and buried in trai­tor ceme­ter­ies. A YouGov poll indi­cated that a sur­pris­ing num­ber of peo­ple would see them­selves sup­port­ing a mil­i­tary coup in the United States, due to more trust in mil­i­tary offi­cers than gov­ern­ment offi­cials. With a large pro­fes­sional mil­i­tary and sim­i­lar gov­ern­ment setup, Turkey isn’t unlike the United States.

But a coup is unlikely. Sorry YouGov pollers.

First, our mil­i­tary doesn’t have the strong sense of per­sonal loy­alty to its admi­rals and gen­er­als. After World War Two, we sep­a­rated mil­i­tary branches and even­tu­ally split our forces into Com­bat­ant Com­mands, which meant the Pres­i­dent had mul­ti­ple four-​star gen­er­als and admi­rals report­ing to him. Frag­ment­ing the mil­i­tary means it is unlikely that any par­tic­u­lar gen­eral will have sway over a major­ity of forces.

Unified_Combatant_Commands_mapMy Turk­ish Naval Offi­cer friends don’t under­stand this setup. Frankly, nei­ther do I.

Plus, our elected offi­cials in Con­gress keep our offi­cer corps apo­lit­i­cal, first by ban­ning mil­i­tary mem­bers from run­ning for office or actively cam­paign­ing. Con­gress also owns the over­whelm­ing num­ber of nom­i­na­tions to ser­vice acad­e­mies, which ensures that the Pres­i­dent can­not build an offi­cer corps loyal only to him.

Most impor­tantly, we lack a domes­tic dis­trac­tion. Turkey can eas­ily blame prob­lems on the Kurds, which you will see more of post-​coup attempt. We don’t have a ver­sion of Kur­dis­tan in the United States (although the south­ern bor­der may feel like that at times).

No mat­ter who wins in Novem­ber, don’t expect a coup.


The views expressed in this blog post are those of the author and do not reflect the offi­cial pol­icy or posi­tion of the Depart­ment of the Navy, Depart­ment of Defense, or U.S. Gov­ern­ment.


NG36B is a mil­i­tary blog­ger. If you liked this post, and you like Star Wars, you should check out why Darth Vader is an Oper­a­tional Genius.

UPDATE DTG: amus­ing Irony via Instapun­dit:

When asked whom they would vote for dur­ing the 2016 cam­paign, 78% of ser­vice­mem­bers picked “other.” Nearly all then chose “mil­i­tary coup” from a list of options that also included Joe Biden, Ted Cruz, Jill Stein and “a mas­sive earth­quake that wipes out life in North America.”

Yeah par­ody is fun.

A note from DaT­e­chGugy: I hope you enjoyed RH/NG36B’s piece. Remem­ber we will be judg­ing the entries in Da Mag­nif­i­cent try­outs by hits both to their post and to DaTip­Jar. So if you like his work, please con­sider shar­ing this post, and if you hit DaTip­jar because of it don’t for­get to men­tion RH/NG36B’s post as the rea­son you did so. His piece from last week, in case you missed it is here.




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YouGovPoll
The real question is…why don’t the numbers add to 100%?

Turkey’s response to the recent coup attempt has been particularly brutal.  Over 200 are dead and 45,000 in jail, and many will likely be executed and buried in traitor cemeteries.  A YouGov poll indicated that a surprising number of people would see themselves supporting a military coup in the United States, due to more trust in military officers than government officials.  With a large professional military and similar government setup, Turkey isn’t unlike the United States.

But a coup is unlikely.  Sorry YouGov pollers.

First, our military doesn’t have the strong sense of personal loyalty to its admirals and generals.  After World War Two, we separated military branches and eventually split our forces into Combatant Commands, which meant the President had multiple four-star generals and admirals reporting to him.  Fragmenting the military means it is unlikely that any particular general will have sway over a majority of forces.

Unified_Combatant_Commands_mapMy Turkish Naval Officer friends don’t understand this setup. Frankly, neither do I.

Plus, our elected officials in Congress keep our officer corps apolitical, first by banning military members from running for office or actively campaigning.  Congress also owns the overwhelming number of nominations to service academies, which ensures that the President cannot build an officer corps loyal only to him.

Most importantly, we lack a domestic distraction.  Turkey can easily blame problems on the Kurds, which you will see more of post-coup attempt.  We don’t have a version of Kurdistan in the United States (although the southern border may feel like that at times).

No matter who wins in November, don’t expect a coup.


The views expressed in this blog post are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Navy, Department of Defense, or U.S. Government.


NG36B is a military blogger. If you liked this post, and you like Star Wars, you should check out why Darth Vader is an Operational Genius.

UPDATE DTG: amusing Irony via Instapundit:

When asked whom they would vote for during the 2016 campaign, 78% of servicemembers picked “other.” Nearly all then chose “military coup” from a list of options that also included Joe Biden, Ted Cruz, Jill Stein and “a massive earthquake that wipes out life in North America.”

Yeah parody is fun.

A note from DaTechGugy: I hope you enjoyed RH/NG36B’s piece. Remember we will be judging the entries in Da Magnificent tryouts by hits both to their post and to DaTipJar. So if you like his work, please consider sharing this post, and if you hit DaTipjar because of it don’t forget to mention RH/NG36B’s post as the reason you did so. His piece from last week, in case you missed it is here.




Olimometer 2.52

Please consider Subscribing. If less than 1/3 of 1% of our readers subscribed at $10 a month we’d have the 114.5 subscribers needed to our annual goal all year without solicitation.

Plus of course all subscribers get my weekly podcast emailed directly to you before it goes up anywhere else.


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