Norman: This is largely as I predicted except the Silly Party won, this was mainly due to the number of votes cast.
Monty Python’s Flying Circus, Election Night Special 1969
Less that 24 hours after the GOP house passed it’s version of Obamacare repeal then ending their not so splende inaction a professional prognosticator forecast doom and gloom for house GOP members for doing so.
Republicans’ 217-213 passage of the American Health Care Act on Thursday guarantees Democrats will have at least one major on-the-record vote to exploit in the next elections. Although it’s the first of potentially many explosive votes, House Republicans’ willingness to spend political capital on a proposal that garnered the support of just 17 percent of the public in a March Quinnipiac poll is consistent with past scenarios that have generated a midterm wave.
Not only did dozens of Republicans in marginal districts just hitch their names to an unpopular piece of legislation, Democrats just received another valuable candidate recruitment tool. In fact, Democrats aren’t so much recruiting candidates as they are overwhelmed by a deluge of eager newcomers, including doctors and veterans in traditionally red seats who have no political record for the GOP to attack – almost a mirror image of 2010
Their conclusion (with a caviet):
In light of the vote, we are shifting our ratings in 20 districts, all reflecting enhanced opportunities for Democrats. The major caveat is that 18 months is an eternity in politics and that as always, we will continue to adjust our outlook as events unfold and the landscape develops.
Naturally the MSM jumped all over this
and Cook was not alone among the prognosticators, Nate Silver joined em:
There could easily be an overall partisan swing of 5 to 10 percentage points against Republicans, therefore. It’s not quite clear how this partisan swing would interact with the AHCA penalty — whether you’d add them together or whether that’s double-counting — but it should be enough to make a lot of Republican incumbents nervous. There are 58 Republicans who won by less than 20 points in 20162 and who voted for the AHCA.
Naturally the MSM jumped
A top nonpartisan election analyst says Thursday’s House GOP vote to repeal and replace ObamaCare hurts the reelection chances of a number of House Republicans next year.
The Cook Political Report on Friday shifted its forecast for 20 GOP-incumbent or open districts to categories less favorable for Republicans.
and Jumped hard into the “GOP DOOM” meme
The Atlantic: What the GOP’s Health-Care Gamble Means for 2018
Talking Points Memo: Hey Hey Goodbye
and of course the Washington Post: Did Republicans just wave bye-bye to their House majority?
It’s almost as if there was a single coordinated script that they all were reading from.
Now there are likely those who might get worried about these predictions and the media’s rush to support and amplify them, but before you do let me show you a blast from Cook’s past namely Nov 7th 2016:
And Nate Silver on Election day with a couple of state highlights thrown in
And then ask the question: Do they really think the American people to fall for this grift again? Or are they only expecting the pols in DC and their foolish consultants to do so?
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