Doing vs Talking Why Trump Is a Good Bet to beat the Polls Every Time.

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Doing vs Talking Why Trump Is a Good Bet to beat the Polls Every Time.

With the replace­ment of Renice Priebus we are see­ing all of the “Trump in dis­ar­ray” “Trump is doomed”, “Trump is a fail­ure” memes trot­ted out again com­ple­mented by another set of poor argu­ments fore­cast­ing dis­as­ter. Most of the cri­tiques are spu­ri­ous but there is at least one that has basis in fact.

Of all the cri­tiques of Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump that have come from the lips of the media there is one that is com­pletely accu­rate, his polling num­bers are less than one might desire in a pres­i­dent. In fact if you look at the Real clear pol­i­tics aver­age of polling you will find that since the day he announced his can­di­dacy to this moment Don­ald Trump has not had a sin­gle day when his favor­able rat­ing exceeded his unfa­vor­able rat­ing. In fact he has not had a sin­gle day when his aver­age favor­able rat­ing hit 45%. Not one!

And if his per­sonal rat­ings are bad his job approval rat­ings are even worse with a 14 point gap as of this writ­ing and num­bers that hit 46% one day of his pres­i­dency (Feb 4th 2017).

Given these polling fig­ures aug­mented by “expert” pun­dits ampli­fy­ing them, this spe­cial elec­tion cycle Pres­i­dent Trump’s foes, like a gam­bling man see­ing a run of cards he likes, bet mil­lions these num­bers meant the smart money was on defeat for this pres­i­dent and the party he leads.

Yet in every spe­cial elec­tion when polling num­bers are replaced by actual vot­ing num­bers we have seen the President’s party pre­vail. From Mon­tana to Geor­gia and beyond, Trump keeps win­ning in defi­ance of what these poll num­bers say.

The ques­tion is why? Is he beat­ing the odds or are the polls wrong?

It would be no shock if the polls are sus­pect. Given the con­stant drum­beat of the press against Trump it would not be unwise to ques­tion the poll results they offer.

I think how­ever there is some­thing more than that going on and it comes down to two things we have seen from Don­ald Trump.

Firstly while he and his job approval num­bers have been dis­mal the things the poli­cies he sup­ports are actu­ally pop­u­lar. For exam­ple, his tem­po­rary travel ban while exco­ri­ated by the media in a poll at Politico hit 60% mean­while Oba­macare which he opposes, while enjoy­ing its first ever surge of pop­u­lar­ity since it was passed has never once hit 50% approval.

But what I really think has been the dif­fer­ence is Trump him­self is a doer rather than a talker. All his life Pres­i­dent Trump, while famous for his show­man­ship has been a doer, a builder, a per­son who knows how to get things done. You may not like him on a per­sonal level, you may not approve of his tweets, but he’s all about doing things and it’s in the nature of things for peo­ple to go with doers.

Or to put in another way, when you need a set of breaks for your car your first cri­te­ria isn’t: Is this mechanic lik­able? , If you need a plumber to fix your toi­let you don’t worry: Does this plumber tweet the wrong things? If you need minor surgery the #1 cri­te­ria to pick your sur­geon isn’t: Is this doc­tor “woke” to the media’s cul­tur­ally approved gen­der norms?

No, what peo­ple want is a mechanic who knows how to fix breaks, a plumber who knows how to fix toi­lets and a sur­geon who knows how to repair that her­nia because if said mechanic, plumber or sur­geon can’t do those things noth­ing else matters.

This is the real secret of the suc­cess of Don­ald Trump in the White House. The polls can say what they want and the pun­dits can com­plain loudly, but as long as he gets laws passed, keeps get­ting judges approved, keeps Amer­i­can energy flow­ing and the econ­omy boom­ing, builds up the mil­i­tary and pro­tects us from ter­ror when it comes time for the Amer­i­can peo­ple to vote the smart money will be on him, Par­tic­u­larly as the Oba­macare deba­cle demon­strates DC insid­ers seem deter­mined to take credit for any fail­ures that might take place

With the replacement of Renice Priebus we are seeing all of the “Trump in disarray” “Trump is doomed”, “Trump is a failure” memes trotted out again complemented by another set of poor arguments forecasting disaster. Most of the critiques are spurious but there is at least one that has basis in fact.

Of all the critiques of President Donald Trump that have come from the lips of the media there is one that is completely accurate, his polling numbers are less than one might desire in a president.  In fact if you look at the Real clear politics average of polling you will find that since the day he announced his candidacy to this moment Donald Trump has not had a single day when his favorable rating exceeded his unfavorable rating.  In fact he has not had a single day when his average favorable rating hit 45%.  Not one!

And if his personal ratings are bad his job approval ratings are even worse with a 14 point gap as of this writing and numbers that hit 46% one day of his presidency (Feb 4th 2017).

Given these polling figures augmented by “expert” pundits amplifying them, this special election cycle President Trump’s foes, like a gambling man seeing a run of cards he likes, bet millions these numbers meant the smart money was on defeat for this president and the party he leads.

Yet in every special election when polling numbers are replaced by actual voting numbers we have seen the President’s party prevail.  From Montana to Georgia and beyond, Trump keeps winning in defiance of what these poll numbers say.

The question is why? Is he beating the odds or are the polls wrong?

It would be no shock if the polls are suspect. Given the constant drumbeat of the press against Trump it would not be unwise to question the poll results they offer.

I think however there is something more than that going on and it comes down to two things we have seen from Donald Trump.

Firstly while he and his job approval numbers have been dismal the things the policies he supports are actually popular.  For example, his temporary travel ban while excoriated by the media in a poll at Politico hit 60% meanwhile Obamacare which he opposes, while enjoying its first ever surge of popularity since it was passed has never once hit 50% approval.

But what I really think has been the difference is Trump himself is a doer rather than a talker.  All his life President Trump, while famous for his showmanship has been a doer, a builder, a person who knows how to get things done.  You may not like him on a personal level, you may not approve of his tweets, but he’s all about doing things and it’s in the nature of things for people to go with doers.

Or to put in another way, when you need a set of breaks for your car your first criteria isn’t:  Is this mechanic likable?  , If you need a plumber to fix your toilet you don’t worry:  Does this plumber tweet the wrong things?   If you need minor surgery the #1 criteria to pick your surgeon isn’t:  Is this doctor “woke” to the media’s culturally approved gender norms?

No, what people want is a mechanic who knows how to fix breaks, a plumber who knows how to fix toilets and a surgeon who knows how to repair that hernia because if said mechanic, plumber or surgeon can’t do those things nothing else matters.

This is the real secret of the success of Donald Trump in the White House.  The polls can say what they want and the pundits can complain loudly, but as long as he gets laws passed, keeps getting judges approved, keeps American energy flowing and the economy booming, builds up the military and protects us from terror when it comes time for the American people to vote the smart money will be on him, Particularly as the Obamacare debacle demonstrates DC insiders seem determined to take credit for any failures that might take place