A Simple Proof of the Insanity of Global Warming Hysteria

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A Simple Proof of the Insanity of Global Warming Hysteria

There are many rea­sons why one should not fall for the insan­ity of cli­mate change panic, the unwill­ing­ness of those who claim it’s a cri­sis to act like it’s a cri­sis, the mas­sive amounts of money spent to mas­sage a par­tic­u­lar answer and the sim­ple ques­tion of who has ben­e­fited from the vast amounts of cash gen­er­ated by grants and sub­si­dies for those who are most deeply invested in this nonsense.

But for my money the best rea­son is illus­trated by these para­graphs from this story on Trop­i­cal storm Irma (empha­sis mine).

As of late Thurs­day morn­ing, Irma was a cat­e­gory 2 storm pack­ing sus­tained winds of 100 mph and was located more than 3,000 miles away from Florida. The storm is headed west toward the Lee­ward Islands.

U.S. and Euro­pean com­puter mod­els show Irma head­ing in dif­fer­ent directions.

“The Amer­i­can mod­els take it to the Car­oli­nas by next Sun­day (Sept. 10). The Euro­pean mod­els have it going to Cuba and pos­si­bly threat­en­ing South Florida,” News 6 mete­o­rol­o­gist Troy Bridges said. “It’s just too early to tell.”

Now con­sider these words for a second.

At this moment our under­stand­ing of Hur­ri­canes is more advanced that at any time in human his­tory and our knowl­edge con­tin­ues to grow. Con­sider this bit from the Earth Sci­ences page of Carl­ton Col­lege about study­ing Hur­ri­canes:

Why Study Hurricanes?

Hur­ri­canes are life-​threatening, building-​flattening, property-​flooding storms. They are com­plex nat­ural phe­nom­ena that involve mul­ti­ple inter­act­ing processes, offer­ing real-​world rea­sons to under­stand con­cepts such as air pres­sure and heat trans­fer. When a hur­ri­cane is occur­ring, the human con­nec­tion to our planet is real and imme­di­ate: land, water, air, and life are all whirled about by these intense storms.

Like sci­en­tists, you’ll study hur­ri­canes in satel­lite imagery and visu­al­iza­tions, and do some hands-​on exper­i­ments. You’ll also explore over 150 years of storm data to find out when and where these storms occur. If you’re study­ing hur­ri­canes dur­ing hur­ri­cane sea­son, you’ll be able to mon­i­tor the posi­tion and sta­tus of storms in real time.

So when it comes to Hur­ri­canes we have exact data that can be gleamed in real time of every aspect of a storm as it hap­pens to add to the var­i­ous com­puter mod­els. Addi­tion­ally we have live data dat­ing back to the mid 19th cen­tury that has been stud­ied by experts in the field for a cen­tury and a half to tell us how hur­ri­canes have acted in the past includ­ing infor­ma­tion made by first hand obser­va­tion by the most advanced instru­ments avail­able at the time.

Fur­ther­more the com­put­ers now being used are leaps and bounds over machines of just a decade or two ago and unlike the mid 19th cen­tury we many venues all over the world that are a source of train­ing in this infor­ma­tion and an even larger pool of poten­tial mete­o­rol­o­gists avail­able to allow those tasked with mak­ing these pre­dic­tions to choose the very best.

Yet even with all of this, two weather ser­vices each with all the advan­tages listed, have 850 mile gap between where they think this storm will go over the next 72 hours.

Now as a per­son famil­iar with both math­e­mat­ics and com­puter sci­ence, this vari­a­tion is not odd, in fact it’s com­pletely under­stand­able. After all a com­puter model is based on the best pos­si­ble guesses from the avail­able data and hur­ri­canes are “com­plex nat­ural phe­nom­ena that involve mul­ti­ple inter­act­ing processes” so there is noth­ing at all odd about there being a 850 mile vari­a­tion as to where it will it. As we get closer to Sun­day and we have true data to input the vari­a­tion in the mod­els will cor­re­spond­ingly decrease.

Now apply this to cli­mate change mod­els telling us we face dis­as­ter in 100 years.

You aren’t deal­ing with a sin­gle “com­plex nat­ural phe­nom­ena that involve mul­ti­ple inter­act­ing processes” you are deal­ing with EVERY com­plex nat­ural phe­nom­ena that involve mul­ti­ple inter­act­ing processes that exists on the earth. Every sin­gle addi­tional item you add increases the vari­a­tion of the data mod­els. Fur­ther­more you are also deal­ing with vari­a­tions in the sun, vari­a­tions in the orbits of the earth, its moon and more.

And that’s just the vari­a­tions in nat­ural phe­nom­ena, imag­ine the vari­a­tion in indus­trial out­put on the entire planet for a period of 50 or 100 years.

Think of the com­puter mod­el­ing and track­ing of that sin­gle hur­ri­cane and apply this think­ing to the cli­mate of the earth as a whole. How accu­rate that model is going to be over 100 years, 50 years, 25 years or even ten years?

Would you be will­ing to bet even your short term eco­nomic future on it, would any­one in their right mind do so?

And as you are pon­der­ing the answer to that ques­tion con­sider the most impor­tant dis­tinc­tion between the NGO’s and Insti­tu­tions push­ing the “cli­mate change” mod­els and those advanc­ing com­pet­ing hur­ri­cane models.

Nei­ther the Amer­i­cans whose model says Irma will hit the Car­olina nor the Euro­peans who claim it’s head­ing to Cuba have any finan­cial incen­tive or social incen­tive to vary their mod­els to con­form with the other, which is why you don’t see the folks at the National Hur­ri­cane cen­ter point to their Euro­pean coun­ter­parts call­ing them “Irma Deniers” or vice versa.

Update: Insta­lanche, thanks Steve, Hi folks take a look around not only at my work but the lat­est each week from DaTechGuy’s Mag­nif­i­cent Seven Writers:

Jerry Wil­son (Thurs­day Evenings) Of Woody Wood­pecker and Nat­ural Dis­as­ters
JD Rucker (Thurs­day after­noons and Sun­day Evenings) Let­ting DACA lapse would be the President’s best move so far
Fausta Wertz (Wednes­day and Fri­day After­noons) A Call or san­ity in the Wake of Har­vey
Juli­ette Akinyi Ochineg (Baldilocks) (Tues­day and Sat­ur­day evenings): Stink­ing Facts
Chris Harper (Tues­day after­noons): A Guide to “Offen­sive” Stat­ues
Pat Austin: (Mon­day After­noons) Report from Louisiana: Hur­ri­cane Har­vey, the Cajun Navy and Bib­li­cal Floods
John (Marathon Pun­dit) Rub­bery: (Sun­day After­noons): Chicago’s rul­ing class thrives amid city’s decline
RH (NG36B) (Sat­ur­day After­noons): The Bishop’s Junk Mail
Zilla of the Resis­tance (Fri­day Evenings): #WarOn­Stat­ues: Catholic School Removes Jesus and Mary

Your sub­scrip­tions and tip jar hits pay them each month

And Don’t miss our Part Time Rid­ers either
Ellen Kolb (1st & 4th Wednes­day After­noons each month): Thoughts on a Torn Poster
Jon Fournier: (3rd Wednes­day After­noon each month) Why do the media insist on dis­tort­ing the polit­i­cal spec­trum?
Michi­gan Mick: (1st & 3rd Mon­day Evenings each month) Red Cen­tury story makes me see red
Tech Knight (2nd Wednes­day Each Month) Pres­i­dent Trump Six Months in


If you like what you’ve seen here and want to sup­port inde­pen­dent jour­nal­ism please con­sider hit­ting DaTip­Jar to help me secure a full pay­check for the week I have to take off (I’ve just been called back to my job start­ing today Update: and believe it or not just relaid off AGAIN) while Stacy McCain is here ($460) please hit DaTip­Jar below.




Please con­sider sub­scrib­ing, Not only does that get you my weekly pod­cast emailed to you before it appears either on the site or at the 405media which gra­ciously car­ries it on a weekly basis but if you sub­scribe at any level I will send you an auto­graphed copy of my new book from Imholt Press: Hail Mary the Per­fect Protes­tant (and Catholic) Prayer


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There are many reasons why one should not fall for the insanity of climate change panic, the unwillingness of those who claim it’s a crisis to act like it’s a crisis, the massive amounts of money spent to massage a particular answer and the simple question of who has benefited from the vast amounts of cash generated by grants and subsidies for those who are most deeply invested in this nonsense.

But for my money the best reason is illustrated by these paragraphs from this story on Tropical storm Irma (emphasis mine).

As of late Thursday morning, Irma was a category 2 storm packing sustained winds of 100 mph and was located more than 3,000 miles away from Florida. The storm is headed west toward the Leeward Islands.

U.S. and European computer models show Irma heading in different directions.

“The American models take it to the Carolinas by next Sunday (Sept. 10). The European models have it going to Cuba and possibly threatening South Florida,” News 6 meteorologist Troy Bridges said. “It’s just too early to tell.”

Now consider these words for a second.

At this moment our understanding of Hurricanes is more advanced that at any time in human history and our knowledge continues to grow.  Consider this bit from the Earth Sciences page of Carlton College about studying Hurricanes:

Why Study Hurricanes?

Hurricanes are life-threatening, building-flattening, property-flooding storms. They are complex natural phenomena that involve multiple interacting processes, offering real-world reasons to understand concepts such as air pressure and heat transfer. When a hurricane is occurring, the human connection to our planet is real and immediate: land, water, air, and life are all whirled about by these intense storms.

Like scientists, you’ll study hurricanes in satellite imagery and visualizations, and do some hands-on experiments. You’ll also explore over 150 years of storm data to find out when and where these storms occur. If you’re studying hurricanes during hurricane season, you’ll be able to monitor the position and status of storms in real time.

So when it comes to Hurricanes we have exact data that can be gleamed in real time of every aspect of a storm as it happens to add to the various computer models.  Additionally we have live data dating back to the mid 19th century that has been studied by experts in the field for a century and a half to tell us how hurricanes have acted in the past including information made by first hand observation by the most advanced instruments available at the time.

Furthermore the computers now being used are leaps and bounds over machines of just a decade or two ago and unlike the mid 19th century we many venues all over the world that are a source of training in this information and an even larger pool of potential meteorologists available to allow those tasked with making these predictions to choose the very best.

Yet even with all of this, two weather services each with all the advantages listed,  have 850 mile gap between where they think this storm will go over the next 72 hours.

Now as a person familiar with both mathematics and computer science, this variation is not odd, in fact it’s completely understandable. After all a computer model is based on the best possible guesses from the available data and hurricanes are “complex natural phenomena that involve multiple interacting processes” so there is nothing at all odd about there being a 850 mile variation as to where it will it.  As we get closer to Sunday and we have true data to input the variation in the models will correspondingly decrease.

Now apply this to climate change models telling us we face disaster in 100 years.

You aren’t dealing with a single “complex natural phenomena that involve multiple interacting processes” you are dealing with EVERY complex natural phenomena that involve multiple interacting processes that exists on the earth. Every single additional item you add increases the variation of the data models. Furthermore you are also dealing with variations in the sun, variations in the orbits of the earth, its moon and more.

And that’s just the variations in natural phenomena, imagine the variation in industrial output on the entire planet for a period of 50 or 100 years.

Think of the computer modeling and tracking of that single hurricane and apply this thinking to the climate of the earth as a whole. How accurate that model is going to be over 100 years, 50 years, 25 years or even ten years?

Would you be willing to bet even your short term economic future on it, would anyone in their right mind do so?

And as you are pondering the answer to that question consider the most important distinction between the NGO’s and Institutions pushing the “climate change” models and those advancing competing hurricane models.

Neither the Americans whose model says Irma will hit the Carolina nor the Europeans who claim it’s heading to Cuba have any financial incentive or social incentive to vary their models to conform with the other, which is why you don’t see the folks at the National Hurricane center point to their European counterparts calling them “Irma Deniers” or vice versa.

Update: Instalanche, thanks Steve, Hi folks take a look around not only at my work but the latest each week from DaTechGuy’s Magnificent Seven Writers:

Jerry Wilson (Thursday Evenings) Of Woody Woodpecker and Natural Disasters
JD Rucker (Thursday afternoons and Sunday Evenings) Letting DACA lapse would be the President’s best move so far
Fausta Wertz (Wednesday and Friday Afternoons) A Call or sanity in the Wake of Harvey
Juliette Akinyi Ochineg (Baldilocks) (Tuesday and Saturday evenings): Stinking Facts
Chris Harper (Tuesday afternoons): A Guide to “Offensive” Statues
Pat Austin: (Monday Afternoons) Report from Louisiana: Hurricane Harvey, the Cajun Navy and Biblical Floods
John (Marathon Pundit) Rubbery: (Sunday Afternoons): Chicago’s ruling class thrives amid city’s decline
RH (NG36B) (Saturday Afternoons): The Bishop’s Junk Mail
Zilla of the Resistance (Friday Evenings): #WarOnStatues: Catholic School Removes Jesus and Mary

Your subscriptions and tip jar hits pay them each month

And Don’t miss our Part Time Riders either
Ellen Kolb (1st & 4th Wednesday Afternoons each month): Thoughts on a Torn Poster
Jon Fournier: (3rd Wednesday Afternoon each month) Why do the media insist on distorting the political spectrum?
Michigan Mick: (1st & 3rd Monday Evenings each month) Red Century story makes me see red
Tech Knight (2nd Wednesday Each Month) President Trump Six Months in


If you like what you’ve seen here and want to support independent journalism please consider hitting DaTipJar to help me secure a full paycheck for the week I have to take off (I’ve just been called back to my job starting today Update: and believe it or not just relaid off AGAIN) while Stacy McCain is here ($460) please hit DaTipJar below.




Please consider subscribing, Not only does that get you my weekly podcast emailed to you before it appears either on the site or at the 405media which graciously carries it on a weekly basis but if you subscribe at any level I will send you an autographed copy of my new book from Imholt Press: Hail Mary the Perfect Protestant (and Catholic) Prayer


Choose a Subscription level