Nolan Ryan and The Conventional Wisdom of Experts.

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Nolan Ryan and The Conventional Wisdom of Experts.

Yes­ter­day I wrote about Nolan Ryan great­ness in ref­er­ence to Chris Sale’s 300 Strike­out sea­son. Today it hit me that Ryan is a great exam­ple of the fol­lies of con­ven­tion wis­dom. The sub­ject deserves a lit­tle more elaboration.

Of all the outs a pitcher can pro­duce a strike­out is the most valu­able, in my opin­ion even more than a dou­ble play. A run­ner can score on a dou­ble play, but with­out an error by the catcher a run­ner can’t score on a third strike nor can a run­ner advance on a strike­out with­out try­ing to steal a base. With no outs and run­ners on a strike­out makes an inning end­ing dou­ble play pos­si­ble and with one a strike­out means that you don’t have to play your infield in, risk­ing a hit get­ting through.

Nolan Ryan struck out 5714 in his career, he is the ulti­mate strike­out pitcher in base­ball his­tory and to under­stand just how good he was con­sider this.

While Ryan struck out 300 men five times in the AL since the DH was adopted he also struck out 300 men the year before (1972) for a total of six 300+ strike­out sea­sons includ­ing one at age 43 (1990). As you do pon­der those num­bers con­sider that Bob Gib­son, Tom Seaver, Roger Clemens, Gay­lord Perry, Don Sut­ton, Bert Blyleven, Chuck Fin­ley, David Cone, Frank Tanana, Mike Mussina, CC Sabathia, Jim Bun­ning, Greg Mad­dux, Phil Niekro, Fer­gu­son Jenk­ins, John Smoltz, and Cy Flip­ping Young, all on the top 24 all time strike­out leader list, never man­aged to do it once.

But believe it or not there was a time when peo­ple actu­ally argued if Ryan was a great pitcher, let alone a Hall of Fame cal­iber pitcher, con­sider this from The Bill James Base­ball abstract’s 1985 edition:

I may get kicked out of the saber­math­mat­ics union for say­ing this but it seems to me we’ve got to start tak­ing Ryan a lit­tle more seri­ously as a great pitcher. He has had six straight win­ning sea­sons (through 1984), which I didn’t expect either, but any­ways he is now about twenty wins bet­ter than the teams he has pitched for. That doesn’t break any records but it is com­pa­ra­ble to man of the pitch­ers listed here.

Remem­ber when this was writ­ten Ryan had already been in the majors 18 years, had already won a world series, won 231 games, held the MLB record for most no hit­ters with five (he would throw two more) and was already the all time strike­out leader with over 3800k’s. In fact if he had retired that year he would still hold the record for no hit­ters and would be cur­rently 4th all time in strike­outs (behind Randy John­son 4875, Clemens 4672 and Steve Carl­ton 4136).

Yet here was one of the best minds in base­ball stat­ing in print that call­ing Nolan Ryan a great pitcher was a con­tro­ver­sial opin­ion at at the time to many it was.

Of course while the experts argued the fans who saw him pitch got it. I watched him pitch at Fen­way once. Every­one in the stands knew we were in the pres­ence of great­ness. He pitched deep into the game leav­ing behind a col­lec­tion of dumb­founded hit­ters before giv­ing the game to his bullpen who would give up the lead and then the game to the Red Sox to the delight of the fans.

It wasn’t until he became the grand old man of base­ball that peo­ple would even­tu­ally come around and rec­og­nize Ryan for the all time great that he was. The writ­ers got when he was eli­gi­ble for the hall of fame in 1999 98.8% of the vot­ers had him on their bal­lots tied with Tom Seaver for the high­est per­cent­age of votes all time. Only Ken Grif­fey Jr’s 99.3% in 2016 would beat it.

If you told Base­ball expect’s in 1984 that this would be the case they’d have laughed you out of the room.

Nolan Ryan career is the best exam­ple of one of my favorite say­ings. Con­ven­tional Wis­dom is always right, up until the moment it isn’t.

I sus­pect we’ll have a lot of use for both this exam­ple and this say­ing over the next 7 years.


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Yesterday I wrote about Nolan Ryan greatness in reference to Chris Sale’s 300 Strikeout season. Today it hit me that Ryan is a great example of the follies of convention wisdom. The subject deserves a little more elaboration.

Of all the outs a pitcher can produce a strikeout is the most valuable, in my opinion even more than a double play. A runner can score on a double play, but without an error by the catcher a runner can’t score on a third strike nor can a runner advance on a strikeout without trying to steal a base. With no outs and runners on a strikeout makes an inning ending double play possible and with one a strikeout means that you don’t have to play your infield in, risking a hit getting through.

Nolan Ryan struck out 5714 in his career, he is the ultimate strikeout pitcher in baseball history and to understand just how good he was consider this.

While Ryan struck out 300 men five times in the AL since the DH was adopted he also struck out 300 men the year before (1972) for a total of six 300+ strikeout seasons including one at age 43 (1990). As you do ponder those numbers consider that Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver, Roger Clemens, Gaylord Perry, Don Sutton, Bert Blyleven, Chuck Finley, David Cone, Frank Tanana, Mike Mussina, CC Sabathia, Jim Bunning, Greg Maddux, Phil Niekro, Ferguson Jenkins, John Smoltz, and Cy Flipping Young, all on the top 24 all time strikeout leader list, never managed to do it once.

But believe it or not there was a time when people actually argued if Ryan was a great pitcher, let alone a Hall of Fame caliber pitcher, consider this from The Bill James Baseball abstract’s 1985 edition:

I may get kicked out of the sabermathmatics union for saying this but it seems to me we’ve got to start taking Ryan a little more seriously as a great pitcher. He has had six straight winning seasons (through 1984), which I didn’t expect either, but anyways he is now about twenty wins better than the teams he has pitched for. That doesn’t break any records but it is comparable to man of the pitchers listed here.

Remember when this was written Ryan had already been in the majors 18 years, had already won a world series, won 231 games, held the MLB record for most no hitters with five (he would throw two more) and was already the all time strikeout leader with over 3800k’s. In fact if he had retired that year he would still hold the record for no hitters and would be currently 4th all time in strikeouts (behind Randy Johnson 4875, Clemens 4672 and Steve Carlton 4136).

Yet here was one of the best minds in baseball stating in print that calling Nolan Ryan a great pitcher was a controversial opinion at at the time to many it was.

Of course while the experts argued the fans who saw him pitch got it. I watched him pitch at Fenway once. Everyone in the stands knew we were in the presence of greatness. He pitched deep into the game leaving behind a collection of dumbfounded hitters before giving the game to his bullpen who would give up the lead and then the game to the Red Sox to the delight of the fans.

It wasn’t until he became the grand old man of baseball that people would eventually come around and recognize Ryan for the all time great that he was. The writers got when he was eligible for the hall of fame in 1999 98.8% of the voters had him on their ballots tied with Tom Seaver for the highest percentage of votes all time. Only Ken Griffey Jr’s 99.3% in 2016 would beat it.

If you told Baseball expect’s in 1984 that this would be the case they’d have laughed you out of the room.

Nolan Ryan career is the best example of one of my favorite sayings. Conventional Wisdom is always right, up until the moment it isn’t.

I suspect we’ll have a lot of use for both this example and this saying over the next 7 years.


If you like what you’ve seen here and want to support independent journalism please hit DaTipJar below.




Please consider subscribing, Not only does that get you my weekly podcast emailed to you before it appears either on the site or at the 405media which graciously carries it on a weekly basis but if you subscribe at any level I will send you an autographed copy of my new book from Imholt Press: Hail Mary the Perfect Protestant (and Catholic) Prayer


Choose a Subscription level