Sir Humphrey: Well I’m sure it’s a question of us maintaining our relationship the Arabs. The power of Islam. [lowering his tone] Oil Supplies.
PM James Hacker: Humphrey I’m talking about what’s right and wrong.
Sir Humphrey: Well don’t let the foreign office hear you.
Yes Prime Minister A Victory for Democracy 1986
Don Corleone: And if by chance an honest man like yourself should make enemies, then they would become my enemies. And then they would fear you.
The Godfather 1972
One might think Donald Trump’s propensity to keep promises that he made to the voters who he considers his customers, enough of a reason for his decision to finally recognize the reality of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel when all of his predecessors failed to do so. But even ignoring that character trait of Trumps to see things as they are there are two factors that make this the most opportune time for the US to make this move.
Since the 1970’s the Arab nations have held their control over oil prices over our head as a club to restrain us from serious opposition. Their ability to increase energy prices and hurt the US economy has been a factor for presidents from Nixon to Clinton to consider. Only a massive attack like 9/11 was enough to override those considerations and act.
However the Fracking booms has changed the equation.
With the US now able to supply it’s oil need to the point that we are a net exporter combined the ability of US Frackers who have become more and more efficient, to add to production if prices start to increase suddenly trumps any attempt by Arab nations to push us around on the basis of oil, and that’s not even considering Trump’s actions to enable pipelines and drilling within the country.
Put simply the Arabs ability to mess with our energy supply is now a thing of the past and without the Obama administration trying to regulate Fracking away it’s unlike to return in our lifetimes.
Fracking takes away the ability of the Arabs to muscle us but the rise of Iran and the advancement of the Iranian nuclear program (ironically aided by the Obama administration) has suddenly given states like Saudi Arabia , Jordan and others completely dependent on the US (and Israel) to keep Iran in check.
As none of them are willing or even able to hold off Iran on their own the US and Israel can name their price for that protection.
So while Palestinians will the Jerusalem decision as a justification to commit terrorism and murder Jews (as opposed to all the other reasons they have used for such terror for years) the reality those same Arab nations, while giving lip service to these Palestinian moves will quietly refrain from any concrete or meaningful action because they know that American and Israeli power is the only thing keeping them from becoming vassal states of Iran.
And with countries from both Africa and Europe already following suit the genie is out of the bottle for good.
And that doesn’t even count the possibility that Trump might be willing to cut the purse strings that keep the corrupt Palestinian authority in power. Or his willingness to call Arab empty threats and bluffs.
Trump understand negotiating from strength and while he has that strength and leverage he’s going to use it.
That’s what a leader does.
LAYOFF UPDATE: So far we have reached 20% of my goal since yesterday’s layoff. (full story here) if you want to help us reach that goal please consider hitting DaTipJar here
You can also help out by buying my book Hail Mary the Perfect Protestant (and Catholic) Prayer and recommending it to your friends. Using scripture as it’s basis it explains why the Hail Mary is a prayer our protestant brothers should embrace rather than reject.
Every 1,000 paperback copies sold at $6.99 can replace a couple of week’s pay. And of course it would make an excellent Gift for the person of faith on your Christmas list.
Finally the math of my now former job is pretty simple. $440 a week comes to $1892 a month over the course of a year. (440 x 4.3) If you divide that by 20 that comes out to 94.6 meaning if I can get 95 new subscribers by the end of this month. I can permanently replace my warehouse job and do this full time.
So far our fundraiser has picked up no new subscribers will you be the first and break the ice?