The Blue Wave Is Real

by Steve Eggleston | April 6th, 2018

Readability

The Blue Wave Is Real

Dusty: Jo! Bill! It’s com­ing! It’s headed right for us!
Bill: It’s already here.

Twister (1996)

It actu­ally started in the ear­li­est of spe­cial Con­gres­sional elec­tions in 2017, though as the Repub­li­can Party can­di­dates won their expected seats any­way, the drop-​off from Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump’s vote per­cent­age was barely noticed, if it was noticed at all. Even when the Vir­ginia and New Jer­sey Repub­li­can Par­ties were effec­tively wiped out, that was dis­missed as expected. The defeat of Roy Moore in the Alabama US Sen­ate spe­cial elec­tion, as his­toric and unex­pected as it was, was writ­ten off as a “one-​off” loss because of an extremely poor can­di­date, even though he ran as “Trump before Trump”. The unex­pected Demo­c­rat win in Wisconsin’s 10th Sen­ate Dis­trict ear­lier this year caused Gov­er­nor Scott Walker to declare it an alarm bell, but as it was only one of 33 dis­tricts, and suf­fi­ciently close to Minnesota’s Twin Cities for some to say that it was sim­ply Min­nesota spillover, few heeded it.

That led us to Tues­day. For the first time in 23 years, the lib­eral can­di­date won an elec­tion for an open seat on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court, and it wasn’t even close. Mil­wau­kee County Judge Rebecca Dal­let defeated Sauk County Judge Michael Screnock 56%-44% for the seat that Jus­tice Michael Gabel­man will be retir­ing from at the end of July.

One can­not blame Trump, cer­tainly not directly, for this dis­as­ter. Even though Dal­let did run a sin­gle anti-​Trump ad, it was her open­ing ad dur­ing the three-​way pri­mary, and, at least in my cor­ner of the state and in my lim­ited expo­sure to the air­waves, that was the only time he was brought up.

Some of my fel­low pun­dits want to blame Screnock for run­ning a bad cam­paign. Not only was this his first run for office (he was appointed judge a cou­ple years back), but as is typ­i­cal in Supreme Court races, he didn’t have much money. Fur­ther, for most of the cam­paign, the right-​of-​center groups that would serve as his proxy remained silent. One of these groups, Wis­con­sin Man­u­fac­tur­ers and Com­merce, the group that is typ­i­cally the most-​active on the right, did finally cut a sin­gle ad, but by that time, Dal­let and her allied groups, both in-​state and out-​of-​state, had flooded the airwaves.

Typ­i­cally, JoAnne Klop­pen­burg notwith­stand­ing, any overtly-​political shots are taken by the allied groups and not the can­di­dates them­selves. Indeed, other than the afore­men­tioned anti-​Trump ad, Dal­let posi­tioned her­self as the “mod­er­ate” between two “extrem­ists”, with Madi­son lawyer Tim Burns very much openly cam­paign­ing as a hyper-​partisan Demo­c­rat who would use the bench to destroy Walker and the GOP.

A “funny” thing hap­pened after the pri­mary, where Screnock, with 46% and Dal­let, with 36%, moved on to the gen­eral elec­tion. Dal­let assumed the Burns posi­tion, going so far as to travel to San Fran­cisco and tell her donors there that she wanted to bring San Fran­cisco val­ues back to Wisconsin.

After 7 years in the Wis­con­sin wilder­ness, the Democ­rats finally got their first scalp, and it was done in a big way. The liberal/​Democrat can­di­date got 80% of the Dane County vote, which cast the most votes of any county even though Mil­wau­kee County is far larger and just as Democrat-​controlled (though not as lib­eral in non-​partisan elec­tions), in a “com­pet­i­tive” statewide elec­tion for the first time since 1982. That is sur­pris­ing given that it con­tains the People’s Repub­lic of Madi­son. J. Miles Cole­man of Deci­sion Desk HQ ran the num­bers by Con­gres­sional dis­trict and found that Dal­let took 4 of them, includ­ing the 8th (held by a Repub­li­can), and nearly took the 7th (also held by a Repub­li­can). Despite the race being nar­rowed to 2 peo­ple, Screnock got a full per­cent­age point less of the vote than he did in the primary.

This all came after 7 years of reforms (though most of those hap­pened years ago), the win­ning of the bid­ding war for Fox­conn and the intro­duc­tion of a new man­u­fac­tur­ing sec­tor to the US, and record-​low unem­ploy­ment with one of the high­est labor force par­tic­i­pa­tion rates in the coun­try. It also came despite what had been an effec­tive cam­paign strat­egy, though under­funded this time.

The wave is real. The only good news, such as it is, is that despite the high turnout in Demo­c­rat strong­holds like Dane County and the unexpectedly-​low con­ser­v­a­tive vote totals in places like the Fox Val­ley, turnout was only a frac­tion of what a typ­i­cal off-​year gen­eral elec­tion is. How­ever, if things don’t change, and change in a hurry, we’re look­ing at another 2006, both at the fed­eral level and at the state levels.

Dusty: Jo! Bill! It’s coming! It’s headed right for us!
Bill: It’s already here.

Twister (1996)

It actually started in the earliest of special Congressional elections in 2017, though as the Republican Party candidates won their expected seats anyway, the drop-off from President Donald Trump’s vote percentage was barely noticed, if it was noticed at all. Even when the Virginia and New Jersey Republican Parties were effectively wiped out, that was dismissed as expected. The defeat of Roy Moore in the Alabama US Senate special election, as historic and unexpected as it was, was written off as a “one-off” loss because of an extremely poor candidate, even though he ran as “Trump before Trump”. The unexpected Democrat win in Wisconsin’s 10th Senate District earlier this year caused Governor Scott Walker to declare it an alarm bell, but as it was only one of 33 districts, and sufficiently close to Minnesota’s Twin Cities for some to say that it was simply Minnesota spillover, few heeded it.

That led us to Tuesday. For the first time in 23 years, the liberal candidate won an election for an open seat on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court, and it wasn’t even close. Milwaukee County Judge Rebecca Dallet defeated Sauk County Judge Michael Screnock 56%-44% for the seat that Justice Michael Gabelman will be retiring from at the end of July.

One cannot blame Trump, certainly not directly, for this disaster. Even though Dallet did run a single anti-Trump ad, it was her opening ad during the three-way primary, and, at least in my corner of the state and in my limited exposure to the airwaves, that was the only time he was brought up.

Some of my fellow pundits want to blame Screnock for running a bad campaign. Not only was this his first run for office (he was appointed judge a couple years back), but as is typical in Supreme Court races, he didn’t have much money. Further, for most of the campaign, the right-of-center groups that would serve as his proxy remained silent. One of these groups, Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce, the group that is typically the most-active on the right, did finally cut a single ad, but by that time, Dallet and her allied groups, both in-state and out-of-state, had flooded the airwaves.

Typically, JoAnne Kloppenburg notwithstanding, any overtly-political shots are taken by the allied groups and not the candidates themselves. Indeed, other than the aforementioned anti-Trump ad, Dallet positioned herself as the “moderate” between two “extremists”, with Madison lawyer Tim Burns very much openly campaigning as a hyper-partisan Democrat who would use the bench to destroy Walker and the GOP.

A “funny” thing happened after the primary, where Screnock, with 46% and Dallet, with 36%, moved on to the general election. Dallet assumed the Burns position, going so far as to travel to San Francisco and tell her donors there that she wanted to bring San Francisco values back to Wisconsin.

After 7 years in the Wisconsin wilderness, the Democrats finally got their first scalp, and it was done in a big way. The liberal/Democrat candidate got 80% of the Dane County vote, which cast the most votes of any county even though Milwaukee County is far larger and just as Democrat-controlled (though not as liberal in non-partisan elections), in a “competitive” statewide election for the first time since 1982. That is surprising given that it contains the People’s Republic of Madison. J. Miles Coleman of Decision Desk HQ ran the numbers by Congressional district and found that Dallet took 4 of them, including the 8th (held by a Republican), and nearly took the 7th (also held by a Republican). Despite the race being narrowed to 2 people, Screnock got a full percentage point less of the vote than he did in the primary.

This all came after 7 years of reforms (though most of those happened years ago), the winning of the bidding war for Foxconn and the introduction of a new manufacturing sector to the US, and record-low unemployment with one of the highest labor force participation rates in the country. It also came despite what had been an effective campaign strategy, though underfunded this time.

The wave is real. The only good news, such as it is, is that despite the high turnout in Democrat strongholds like Dane County and the unexpectedly-low conservative vote totals in places like the Fox Valley, turnout was only a fraction of what a typical off-year general election is. However, if things don’t change, and change in a hurry, we’re looking at another 2006, both at the federal level and at the state levels.

Comments are closed.

Buy My Book!

Buy My Book!

Hit DaTipJar and Support Conservative Journalism & Opinion




Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 4,146 other subscribers

DH Gate Dot Com, Online Shopping

Cheap ecigarette from China - DHgate

Best Grassroots Blogs

Winner - 2014 Fabulous 50 Blog Awards

Catholic CD of the Month

Know your Catholic Faith

Da Pages

Winner - 2014 Fabulous 50 Blog Awards

Donald Trump Calls on DaTechGuy Worcester MA

 
%d bloggers like this: