The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy
I’d like to remind you dear reader of one of the facts of life that are evergreen (as evidenced by the fact this post was started four months ago).
It doesn’t matter what the national or generic ballot polls show on 2018 (or any) midterms. What is actually going to matter is the polling in the individual swing districts that Democrats have to win in order to take the House they in fact have absolutely no chance of taking the senate, you can quote me on that.
So it doesn’t matter if the GOP is very unpopular in Nancy Pelosi’s district in San Francisco or if the entire Massachusetts delegation can’t stand the president what matters is how the various GOP/DEM candidates in swing districts think. Are they getting more money in their paycheck? Did they get a bonus due to the Tax plan? Are there new jobs and manufacturing plants opening up nearby?
These are the things that matter, more importantly they matter in the individual districts that the midterms will be won and lost in.
If you want to know what is going to happen in the fall I would suggest ignoring the national polls and start paying attention to the polls in any individual districts that aren’t considered a sure thing in 2018.
Granted it’s very possible that these polls might be garbage depending on how the questions are asked and the sample sizes and distributions so judge accordingly but let’s not give those national polls more attention than they deserve.