Reality Check: Murkowski & Collins have no Leverage

Readability

Reality Check: Murkowski & Collins have no Leverage

I’ve always known how to count

Tip O’Neil

For the last week we have heard the breath­less dec­la­ra­tions the Don­ald Trump will not be able to get a judge who opposes Roe v Wade because Lisa Murkowski of Alaska or Susan Collins of Maine will vote against any such nominee.

Mil­lions of pix­els have been ded­i­cated to this propo­si­tion as the media breath­lessly declare that any such judge will have a hard if not impos­si­ble path to the Supreme Court.

While I hate to dis­ap­point all of you folks on the left but Doug Mat­a­coins not with­stand­ing it is Collins and Murkowski who are in the box, not Trump.

Even when the Pres­i­dent didn’t have a supreme court nom­i­nee com­ing up or democ­rats call­ing for the pub­lic harass­ment of con­ser­v­a­tives or Demo­c­rat Social­ists pub­licly pro­claim­ing com­mu­nism, which mur­dered 100+ mil­lion in the 20th cen­tury, as a good thing the num­bers looked bad for the Democ­rats in the sen­ate due to the sheer num­ber of Democ­rats run­ning for re-​election, par­tic­u­larly from Red States.

In a bad sce­nario it was likely the GOP would pick up at only one seat, with a strong econ­omy, low unem­ploy­ment and suc­cess against ISIS and Democ­rats mak­ing fools of them­selves a pick up of 3 seats is a real possibility.

The media and twit­ter may not be talk­ing about this but you had bet­ter believe that Collins and Murkowski both know how to count real and under­stand the moment the GOP has a major­ity that doesn’t depend on their vote to get a jus­tice con­firmed they will have as much say in who Trump nom­i­nates as Chuck Schumer, namely none.

So I sus­pect that they will make loud noises and say all the right things to the media who will be putting immense pres­sure on them but in the end when the votes are counted Trump will get both his nom­i­nee and unless they can man­age a Fish­bait Miller sce­nario will likely have their vote as well.

If Trump chooses Judge Amy Coney Bar­rett, (which is who I think he will) Watch them claim as a dri­ving force for their vote for her the chance to cre­ate, for the first time in the court’s his­tory actual par­ity between the num­ber of men and women on it.

You heard it here first

I’ve always known how to count

Tip O’Neil

For the last week we have heard the breathless declarations the Donald Trump will not be able to get a judge who opposes Roe v Wade because Lisa Murkowski of Alaska or Susan Collins of Maine will vote against any such nominee.

Millions of pixels have been dedicated to this proposition as the media breathlessly declare that any such judge will have a hard if not impossible path to the Supreme Court.

While I hate to disappoint all of you folks on the left but Doug Matacoins not withstanding  it is Collins and Murkowski who are in the box, not Trump.

Even when the President didn’t have a supreme court nominee coming up or democrats calling for the public harassment of conservatives or Democrat Socialists publicly proclaiming communism, which murdered 100+ million in the 20th century, as a good thing the numbers looked bad for the Democrats in the senate due to the sheer number of Democrats running for re-election, particularly from Red States.

In a bad scenario it was likely the GOP would pick up at only one seat, with a strong economy, low unemployment and success against ISIS and Democrats making fools of themselves a pick up of 3 seats is a real possibility.

The media and twitter may not be talking about this but you had better believe that Collins and Murkowski both know how to count real and understand the moment the GOP has a majority that doesn’t depend on their vote to get a justice confirmed they will have as much say in who Trump nominates as Chuck Schumer, namely none.

So I suspect that they will make loud noises and say all the right things to the media who will be putting immense pressure on them but in the end when the votes are counted Trump will get both his nominee and unless they can manage a Fishbait Miller scenario will likely have their vote as well.

If Trump chooses Judge Amy Coney Barrett, (which is who I think he will) Watch them claim as a driving force for their vote for her the chance to create, for the first time in the court’s history actual parity between the number of men and women on it.

You heard it here first