Five Quick Democrat Primary Thoughts Under the Fedora

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Five Quick Democrat Primary Thoughts Under the Fedora

There are a lot of pols out there fluc­tu­at­ing but still show­ing Biden in the lead with the var­i­ous Dems below him. While as a rule early pols mean pretty lit­tle odds are these pols are going to be more accu­rate than any pols show­ing a match up vs POTUS because Democ­rats are less likely to destruct poll­sters than Trump voters.


At first glance Beto’s: If they say they’re girls they can play girls sports! bat­tle­cry might seem a good idea in a demo­c­rat pri­mary, par­tic­u­larly if he says it loud enough to get a bunch of other can­di­date to cry “Me Too” but in the end peo­ple for­get that the demo­c­rat party is a coali­tion of a lot of groups and while such a cry will play will before activists groups and in the media I sus­pect that in states where there is a large black, Latino or Mus­lim vote it will not play so well at the bal­lot box.


BTW don’t think for a sec­ond that we won’t hear even cra­zier stuff than this from other Demo­c­rat can­di­dates mired at 1% or less. Any of them who are actu­ally inter­ested in try­ing to win are going to have to do this type of thing to get noticed. I’d be shocked if we don’t see a bunch of such dec­la­ra­tion in the debates.


Hear­ing that Eliz­a­beth War­ren is ris­ing in the polls again doesn’t sur­prise me as much as oth­ers. I’ve seen her cam­paign in Mass and while she is as bat­shit crazy as any­one in the left she can be very engag­ing on a per­sonal level. That will help in Iowa and NH.

As for the indian thing I’ll never under­stand why War­ren didn’t just say some­thing like: This had been our fam­ily lore for as long as I remem­ber so why would I have any rea­son to doubt or hes­i­tate to use it. Nor­mal peo­ple would have got that but these are lib­er­als, they can’t help themselves.


It’s very hard to pre­dict any­thing, par­tic­u­larly the future, but lets go out on a minor limb here.

The 1st Demo­c­rat primary/​caucus is Feb 3rd. Before that date at least one or maybe two cur­rent can­di­dates will be gone. By the time that 1st cau­cus is done the Demo­c­rat field will be down to under 15, by the end of New Hamp­shire it will be below 10. On March 3rd 16 states and ter­ri­to­ries will be hold­ing pri­maries and cau­cuses includ­ing 6 states with 90 or more del­e­gates. Mass­a­chu­setts (91), Vir­ginia (99), Geor­gia (105), North Car­olina (110), Texas (228) and Cal­i­for­nia (416). When that day is done if we have more than Biden, Bernie and three oth­ers stand­ing I will be very shocked.


There are a lot of pols out there fluctuating but still showing Biden in the lead with the various Dems below him. While as a rule early pols mean pretty little odds are these pols are going to be more accurate than any pols showing a match up vs POTUS because Democrats are less likely to destruct pollsters than Trump voters.


At first glance Beto’s: If they say they’re girls they can play girls sports! battlecry might seem a good idea in a democrat primary, particularly if he says it loud enough to get a bunch of other candidate to cry “Me Too” but in the end people forget that the democrat party is a coalition of a lot of groups and while such a cry will play will before activists groups and in the media I suspect that in states where there is a large black, Latino or Muslim vote it will not play so well at the ballot box.


BTW don’t think for a second that we won’t hear even crazier stuff than this from other Democrat candidates mired at 1% or less. Any of them who are actually interested in trying to win are going to have to do this type of thing to get noticed. I’d be shocked if we don’t see a bunch of such declaration in the debates.


Hearing that Elizabeth Warren is rising in the polls again doesn’t surprise me as much as others. I’ve seen her campaign in Mass and while she is as batshit crazy as anyone in the left she can be very engaging on a personal level. That will help in Iowa and NH.

As for the indian thing I’ll never understand why Warren didn’t just say something like: This had been our family lore for as long as I remember so why would I have any reason to doubt or hesitate to use it. Normal people would have got that but these are liberals, they can’t help themselves.


It’s very hard to predict anything, particularly the future, but lets go out on a minor limb here.

The 1st Democrat primary/caucus is Feb 3rd. Before that date at least one or maybe two current candidates will be gone. By the time that 1st caucus is done the Democrat field will be down to under 15, by the end of New Hampshire it will be below 10. On March 3rd 16 states and territories will be holding primaries and caucuses including 6 states with 90 or more delegates. Massachusetts (91), Virginia (99), Georgia (105), North Carolina (110), Texas (228) and California (416). When that day is done if we have more than Biden, Bernie and three others standing I will be very shocked.