Report from Louisiana: On Nonsense Polls and the Governor’s Race

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Report from Louisiana: On Nonsense Polls and the Governor's Race

By: Pat Austin

SHREVE­PORT – It has been a fairly quiet cam­paign sea­son in
Louisiana with regard to the Octo­ber guber­na­to­r­ial elec­tion, but pun­dits expect
that to change in the next week or so.
Word is that the cam­paigns of all three can­di­dates will kick into high
gear after July 4.

Securely out in front for re-​election is Gov­er­nor John Bel
Edwards, who is
polling
in the mid to high 40 per­cent range on most every poll. He is
fol­lowed by his Repub­li­can chal­lengers, Ralph Abra­ham and Eddie Rispone, both
of whom have fairly low name recog­ni­tion through­out the state. Abra­ham is
cur­rently a US Rep­re­sen­ta­tive so that alone gets him a lit­tle bit more
pub­lic­ity and slightly more recognition.

If Edwards doesn’t win the Octo­ber pri­mary out­right, he will
likely be chal­lenged by Ralph Abra­ham in the Novem­ber gen­eral election.

It is, of course, the polls which have so far pro­vided the
enter­tain­ment for this race since the can­di­dates have been rel­a­tively quiet. In
a recent poll pub­lished
in The Advo­cate
, poll­ster Verne Kennedy not only had Don­ald Trump in deep
trou­ble with Louisiana vot­ers (despite pop­u­lar opin­ion oth­er­wise), he also had
Edwards polling much higher than any other sur­vey with 58%.

Louisiana radio per­son­al­ity Moon Grif­fon was apoplec­tic over
Kennedy’s poll, as reported by The
Hayride:

To say the least, Moon Griffon’s reac­tion on Fri­day when Bridges’ piece came out was spir­ited. IF he’d shouted “Bull­shit!” for 19 min­utes straight he’d have got­ten the same point across.

Griffon’s point, that for Bridges to write up a poll which doesn’t pub­lish its voter sam­ple, when it was taken or any of the crosstabs and most of all who paid for it, which has such bizarre results com­pared to every other sur­vey done on Trump’s elec­toral strength in Louisiana and the governor’s race, com­pletely stinks is spot on.

Grif­fon has a low tol­er­ance for nonsense.

Mean­while, Edwards has been qui­etly cov­er­ing his bases, nail­ing
down the teacher vote, for exam­ple, by sign­ing off on a $1,000 per year pay raise
for Louisiana edu­ca­tors. It’s not much, but it may affirm his merit for some educators.

And in truth, Edwards will be hard to beat. He’s a Demo­c­rat
but he’s also pro-​Second Amend­ment and staunchly pro-​life, recently
sign­ing a strong anti-​abortion bill
.

But, as I often say and as we all know, in Louisiana pol­i­tics there is never a dull moment and so as the cam­paigns heat up in com­ing weeks, it will cer­tainly be enter­tain­ing to watch.

Pat Austin blogs at And So it Goes in Shreve­port and is the author of Cane River Bohemia. Fol­low her on Insta­gram @patbecker25 and Twit­ter @paustin110.

By:  Pat Austin

SHREVEPORT – It has been a fairly quiet campaign season in Louisiana with regard to the October gubernatorial election, but pundits expect that to change in the next week or so.  Word is that the campaigns of all three candidates will kick into high gear after July 4.

Securely out in front for re-election is Governor John Bel Edwards, who is polling in the mid to high 40 percent range on most every poll. He is followed by his Republican challengers, Ralph Abraham and Eddie Rispone, both of whom have fairly low name recognition throughout the state. Abraham is currently a US Representative so that alone gets him a little bit more publicity and slightly more recognition.

If Edwards doesn’t win the October primary outright, he will likely be challenged by Ralph Abraham in the November general election.

It is, of course, the polls which have so far provided the entertainment for this race since the candidates have been relatively quiet. In a recent poll published in The Advocate, pollster Verne Kennedy not only had Donald Trump in deep trouble with Louisiana voters (despite popular opinion otherwise), he also had Edwards polling much higher than any other survey with 58%.

Louisiana radio personality Moon Griffon was apoplectic over Kennedy’s poll, as reported by The Hayride:

To say the least, Moon Griffon’s reaction on Friday when Bridges’ piece came out was spirited. IF he’d shouted “Bullshit!” for 19 minutes straight he’d have gotten the same point across.

Griffon’s point, that for Bridges to write up a poll which doesn’t publish its voter sample, when it was taken or any of the crosstabs and most of all who paid for it, which has such bizarre results compared to every other survey done on Trump’s electoral strength in Louisiana and the governor’s race, completely stinks is spot on.

Griffon has a low tolerance for nonsense.

Meanwhile, Edwards has been quietly covering his bases, nailing down the teacher vote, for example, by signing off on a $1,000 per year pay raise for Louisiana educators. It’s not much, but it may affirm his merit for some educators.

And in truth, Edwards will be hard to beat. He’s a Democrat but he’s also pro-Second Amendment and staunchly pro-life, recently signing a strong anti-abortion bill.

But, as I often say and as we all know, in Louisiana politics there is never a dull moment and so as the campaigns heat up in coming weeks, it will certainly be entertaining to watch.

Pat Austin blogs at And So it Goes in Shreveport and is the author of Cane River Bohemia. Follow her on Instagram @patbecker25 and Twitter @paustin110.