Report from Louisiana: Does Edwards lose based on early voting?

By:  Pat Austin

ARNAUDVILLE LA – We are traveling this week and find ourselves in Arnaudville, LA, once again; we are about an hour to the west of Baton Rouge and twenty minutes or so north of Lafayette, in Cajun country.

Early voting has ended across the state for the gubernatorial election, as well as other local races, and The Hayride blog has some interesting predictions about John Bel Edwards: he loses.  Really, it’s a very dramatic headline: The Early Voting Numbers Signal John Bel Edwards’ Defeat.  Really?!  Is that premature?

Pundit Jeff Sadow believes Edwards may be in trouble:

Democrats have averaged 39.26 percent total turnout while Republicans have averaged 43.59 percent. In terms of early voting over this span, those means respectively are 8.47 and 10.14. Thus, the ratio for Democrats, is 4.65; for Republicans, it’s 4.35. This shows in recent history that of those who vote Democrats in comparison to Republicans disproportionately don’t vote early, with early votes making up 21.5 percent of their total while for the GOP its early voters comprise 23 percent of that total.

At the same time, the early voting average higher Republican turnout of 1.67 percent is 2.6 times smaller than the average gap in total turnout that favors Republicans by 4.33 percent. With early 10/12/19 voting encompassing 13.16 percent of Democrats and 16.91 percent of Republicans, the gap more than doubled to 3.75.

Using the historical ratios, this means trouble for Democrats. That would imply a 64.68 percent turnout for Democrats and 73.56 for Republicans. Such lofty numbers won’t happen because of the trend to substitute early for election day voting, for which these ratios don’t compensate. However, comparatively these do point to a significant GOP advantage.

I’ve been most worried that a Republican split between Ralph Abraham and Eddie Rispone would give Edwards an outright win but Sadow (who is smarter than me) does not appear concerned.

And for whatever it’s worth, early voting numbers have been record-breaking across the state, which seems to indicate that it is not just local races pulling people to the polls.

The primary is next weekend, October 12, which is also LSU-Florida game day which could contribute to some of the early voting numbers, but certainly not all. 

As I’ve said often, John Bel Edwards has killed economic growth in this state, and his pathetic attempt to buy teacher votes with a $1,000 annual pay raise is a joke. By the time taxes and insurance come out each month my raise might buy lunch one day at Chick-Fil-A.

At this point, I don’t care who defeats Edwards, just as long as somebody does.

Pat Austin blogs at And So it Goes in Shreveport and is the author of Cane River Bohemia: Cammie Henry and Her Circle at Melrose Plantation (LSU Press). Follow her on Instagram @patbecker 25 and Twitter @paustin110.

The New Gender of “Traitor”

Since the Obama years when this stuff really began to blow up we have been told by our cultural and intellectual betters that it is not up to us but to individual to define their own gender and that anyone who does not go along with the whole ” Vive L’Empereur” business is a bigot.

Apparently according to our media, social and intellectual betters there is a caveat to this rule.

This new rule is applied if a person, who at one time defined themselves by a gender other than the one indicated by their birth has second thoughts, something that is apparently becoming more common: as they have discovered that hacking pieces of themselves off by professionals has not despite the approval of the right people brought them happiness.

In this eventually such people, rather than being able to self define their gender back to what it once was are now defined by a totally different gender.

Traitor:

Most concerning for Ms Evans, however, is the fact that there appears to be no support network to speak of for people who wish to “detransition”, with one biological woman who approached her saying she had “felt shunned by the LGBT community for being a traitor” when it became known that she wished to return to her birth sex.

Now some might look at this and conclude that the reason for open and tolerant people who have spent the last decade championing the right of people to define their own gender as a fearful reaction by people who are not actually secure in their own decisions and need affirmation of others, particularly society to keep themselves from collapse into a mire of depression and despair and confusion that led to said decisions in the first place.

But I’m sure all of the right people, in society, in media and particularly in the massively tolerant LGBT community will tell you that’s nonsense and that this new gender of “traitor” is simply the proper application of gender to those who are no longer enlightened enough to make such decisions on their own.