Trust but Verify
Or what king marching into battle would not first sit down and decide whether with ten thousand troops he can successfully oppose another king advancing upon him with twenty thousand troops? But if not, while he is still far away, he will send a delegation to ask for peace terms.
An awful lot of conservatives have become more and more frustrated with the GOP over the last 6 years. Those conservatives stayed home in 2008 & 2012 when the party nominated candidates who didn’t support their agenda or tried to strong arm them. Those same conservatives turned out in 2010 to give the Obama administration the only check they have on their political power. This frustration has prompted plenty of 3rd party talk, some of it from me.
It’s easy to talk about going 3rd party but people don’t understand the complicated logistics involved, the laws that have to be obeyed and what it takes to becomes viable enough in a state to be able to influence an election, both in terms of number and of course the money. Additionally the question becomes are you just going to give Democrats a bunch of easy wins and be worse off than before?
If you are going to consider this, you have to understand the risks and rewards
The best parallel to explain it that comes to mind is this situation in the 1969 movie The Undefeated starring John Wayne & Rock Hudson.
After leaving the US Army at the end of the civil war Thomas (Wayne) decides he and his remaining troops will make their fortune by gathering up wild horses to sell to the army. They spend the winter building a herd of 3000 and arrange to meet with the Government agents.
When they arrive at the way-station, a pair of representatives of Maximilian’s government turn up offering to buy the entire herd sight unseen at top dollar if they are willing to drive them to Mexico.
At this point the US government agents turn up and Wayne politely dismisses Maximilian’s representatives saying “Sorry gents our government needs them.”
The US government agents begin by saying that out of 3000 horses they might be able to find 500 they can use. Wayne is taken aback saying he doesn’t have 500 horses for sale, he has 3000, they’ll take them all or none. The government notes the war is over times are hard and the army is “not that hungry for horseflesh”
Thomas sends his pal to get the pair of Mexican agents waiting outside and asks what the army is paying which precipitates this exchange
Giles: Top dollar $25 a head
Thomas: Last month is was $35 a head
Agent 2: But this month it’s $25 a head
Consider the parallel at this point to the relationship of the establishment GOP. The Establishment GOP says to the foot soldiers this is what we can accept and this is what we can give for your hard work. Where else are you going to go, to the Democrats?
At this point Shortgrub re-enters with the two Mexican agents and when Thomas sees them interjects:
Thomas: Well these gentlemen have offered to take the entire herd sight unseen, and what’s your top price?
Petain: $35 a head of course.
So Thomas has a choice, either take the offer, pocket the $12,500 for his men the Army will pay on the 500 best horses and get what he can for the rest. Or take the higher offer, on the wager that he will
Retain enough of the herd on the long drive to Mexico to make it worth the time and effort and cost to make it worth it.
Not make an enemy of or cause trouble for himself and his men later on.
Wayne character doesn’t hesitate a second:
Thomas: You’ve just bought yourself a herd and you can tell that Maximilian fella he won’t find himself a finer herd this side of the …”
At this point Giles interrupts indignant.
Giles: Just a minute, do you mean to say you are selling horses to Maximilian as opposed to your own government?
Thomas: No I’m selling horses for $35 a head instead of $25 you figured on making $10 a head.
At this point a very short fight breaks out and Thomas & his friend leave.
Now this is a moment of high satisfaction in the movie Thomas, in a situation where he is being treated wrong bluntly rejects a crooked deal from a crooked pair and decides to go out on his own. Much like many in the Conservative moment wish to do with the GOP and not without cause.
So Thomas and his herd beings his trek south. After dodging a small cavalry troop that tries to stop them from crossing the Rio Grande Thomas orders scouts and sentries to be put out. That prompts this exchange.
Shortgrub: You ain’t expecting trouble, are you John Henry?
Col. John Henry Thomas: Trouble? Well, let’s see… We got Maximilian on one hand and Juarez on the other, and bandits in between. And on top of that, we’re Americans in Mexico taking a cavvy of horses to a very unpopular government. Why should we expect trouble?
Shortgrub: How come you didn’t tell us?
Thomas: How come you didn’t ask?
They end up fighting bandits, encountering Rock Hudson’s Confederate refugees for a pair of adventures and reaching their destination with 2500 horses waiting for the promised money. At this point Rock Hudson rides in saying his entire party of men women & children have been taken by Gen Rojas’ troops who threaten to execute them unless Thomas delivers the horses to them.
After a discussion where the men decry ending up with nothing after all their time and effort but in the end they decide to give up the horses fighting their way through French Cavalry that try to stop them until just as the first batch of men are lined up against the wall, Thomas’ herd is spotted. Thomas confronts Rojas.
Thomas: You drive a hard bargain
Rojas:War is War Mr. Thomas.
Thomas:That’s right, You win one, you lose one.
So bottom line for all their hard work Thomas and his men end up with nothing and that brings us to the 3rd party movement for conservatives.
It is painfully clear that despite the best efforts of some like Ma. GOP chair Kirsten Hughes and people like Magnificent Panel regular Mary Lotze there is a bunch of bad blood. Many in the GOP would be happy for the Tea Party & social conservatives to just go away and many in the Tea Party are happy to oblige after the fecklessness of the party and social conservatives who are forever told they should give and just shut up.
While there is a great amount of satisfaction in such a decision on both sides the problem is in the end everybody turns up empty, consider the movie.
The US government didn’t get the horses
The government agents didn’t get their cut
Maximilian didn’t get any horses
Thomas and his men not only ended up with nothing but several of them died in the fight against Maximilian French forces.
Meanwhile the only winners was Rojas who got all the horses delivered to their doorstep for no charge.
Sort of like the liberals every time we fight among ourselves.
Now think about this from the beginning if the government agents were willing to pay say $30 a head Thomas they might have been able to feather their caps although not by as much as they might have liked.
If Thomas had decided to sell the government 500 of those horses (the same amount he lost in the drive) he and his would have still had $12,500 up front and would still be able to deal with the in the future if the need arose…
…and the Mexican agents would have been just as happy to buy 2500 horses as they would have 3000.
Even if the story ended the same way, at the end the surviving members of Thomas’ crew would have still had that $12,500. It’s a lot less than $87,500 but it’s infinitely more than zero. 14% of something is worth a lot more than 100% of nothing.
Now there are real reasons to consider going 3rd party and a person has to follow their own conscience but as Christ himself advises it would be a good idea to make sure they can have the right effect before abandoning the GOP altogether.
Likewise the GOP needs to look long and hard at the prospect of being a permanent minority and decide if feathering their nests from government is a better deal than a more responsible government that still gives them access to the power they want without taking the taxpayer for a ride.
As I’ve said before conservatives should consider building the infrastructure for state 3rd parties (or perhaps prepare to go en masse to an existing one) while seeing how the GOP chooses to treat them in 2014 or act on issues such as Immigration. If they treat conservatives right then we can hold off, if not things can start happening in December.
And that gives the GOP pretty much a full year to make up their mind, do they want a party big enough to win in 2014 and beyond. Or will they take the Conservative money and effort for granted in 2014 one more time? Is the party going to be a gravy train or stand for something?
Think carefully, the future of the party and of the country are at stake and if the wrong decision is made, everyone loses.
Update: This doesn’t inspire confidence:
But why are the politicians abandoning the economic interests of the country’s basic laborers, and the strong anti-amnesty convictions of their own constituents (in the case of most Republicans), and doing it at such an objectively inauspicious time? It’s hard to deny that cash is doing much of the swaying here. “[A]ll the money is on the side of pushing it,” one pro-amnesty Democratic Congressman boasted–money in the form not only of direct campaign contributions, as promised by Mark Zuckerberg ($50 million) and the Chamber of Commerce, but also future consulting contracts and lobbying positions for those who echo the line that Republicans just have to do this to remain viable.
Actually, I don’t think they can remain viable if they do. It’s (another) big push in the direction of a massive base-walkaway from the GOP, and quite possibly the formation of a third party.
Doesn’t anything think beyond tomorrow’s pocketbook anymore?
What a difference a day makes
Yesterday we had missed three straight weekly goals and our prospects of making the mortgage this month were doubtful.
As of today not only have we made payroll this week, but we made up for the previous three week’s shortfall.
In fact even a bad week next week will be enough to make the monthly goal.
So let me thank you all. Per the rules you won’t see me rattle DaTipJar until next week rolls along
Of those tip jar hits one was a monthly subscription. If we can get 57 subscribers @ at $20 a month the bills and the writers will be paid EVERY week all year. Now I might be biased but you might ay that’s a pretty wise investment.