You might remember this concerning the war from some weeks ago:
This is a strategic move by Iran and a smart one…
…Unfortunately no matter what happens even a total Israeli victory the winner here is Iran. As long as the world is talking about Gaza and rocket attacks and responses they are not touching the ongoing building of Nukes by Iran. I think this is all a sucker punch to keep the heat elsewhere. If Israel is hitting Gaza and or Lebanon they are not hitting Iranian nuke sites. They are buying time with Arab rather than Persian lives.
Iran is exerting heavy pressure on Hamas not to accept the Egyptian proposal for a cease-fire with Israel, an Egyptian government official said on Sunday.
The official told The Jerusalem Post by phone that two senior Iranian officials who visited Damascus recently warned Hamas leaders against accepting the proposal.
I wonder why? The Captain has an answer:
Why do they want Hamas to keep provoking Israel? The Egyptian official speaking with the Post believes they want to distract the world from their nuclear program, but I’d bet the Iranians have Israel specifically in mind. The rest of the world won’t stop Iran from producing nuclear weapons, but Israel probably will, if given the chance. Iran wants Hamas to fight an open war with Israel to keep the IDF from attacking its nuclear sites in the near term.
What does that mean for Iranian nukes? It suggests that the Iranians are closer to actual production than people have estimated prior to now. Hamas’ sudden desire to lift the cease-fire in late December, using a November 4th incident as the supposed provokation for their rationalization, makes a lot of sense in that context. The Iranians would worry most about covert strikes as they near completion of their effort, and they need Israel tied up for months, not weeks, to keep them distracted.
I’d say he’s likely spot on. I wouldn’t want to be the leader of Israel who has to make that decision. It’s not going to be a lot of fun for the president elect either. There will be a big party in 8 days but in 9 days the party will be over and Joe Biden’s prediction will come true in a hurry.