I’ve written several posts on the current electoral situation in the GOP  and noticed some of the statements of the various campaigns that are completely divorced from reality when it comes to dealing with Donald Trump.

Furthermore on twitter, but not yet on the blog I’ve hit the absolutely stupidity of Mitt Romney’s attack on Donald Trump’s taxes, which echos the dishonorable attacks that Harry Reid used on him.  On that subject I think Stacy McCain’s point from 2012 that I quoted in this post applies:

What I believe is this: Whatever Harry Reid knows about Mitt Romney’s taxes, he obtained from Democrat Party sources who, in turn, got it via the leaking of this confidential information from IRS officials to individuals affiliated with the Obama campaign.

Reid is lying — mischaracterizing his sources — to conceal the fact that the Obama campaign has illegally obtained Romney’s IRS forms.

But don’t expect me to prove that accusation. I don’t think the burden should be on me. The burden should be on Harry Reid. He’s the one I’ve alleged is part of a Nixonian conspiracy at the White House. Why didn’t Harry identify his sources?

In fact the only thing more outrageous than Romney’s attack on Trump’s taxes based on zero evidence is Harry Reid attacking him for it (I’m not kidding)

But for all this nonsense there problem remains: How do you beat Donald Trump?  Right now that’s the only question on the floor and if your candidate isn’t thinking along those lines, he’s not serious and needs to drop out.

The only way to do this is to either bring in new voters for yourself but none of the candidates have the reach to the general public that Trump has so that’s not practicable, the other way is to discourage Donald Trump voters from voting, I don’t see that working either since any attack on Trump simply angers the Trump voter and produces attacks that are not easily countered given his social media reach.

That leaves only one other card. Somehow Make the case to the Donald Trump voter to vote for you instead.

While this is a longshot it is the only viable plan short of the GOP changing it’s convention rules, to stop Trump. You need to persuade these voters that not only are you with them but you’ve been with them since day 1.

On it’s face this seems ridiculous and for Marco Rubio it would be.  His embrace of the gang of 8 makes it impossible and for John Kasich his embrace of obamacare makes it doubly so.  Ben Carson might be able to try such a pitch but he can’t make a case any different than Mr. Trump can.

However  there is one candidate who actually is in a position to make this case. In fact he is in perfect position to do so.

That man is Ted Cruz.

Here’s how.

At tonight’s debate when invited to attack Donald Trump, and believe me CNN will,  Ted Cruz should say something along these lines.

“Actually rather than attack Donald Trump I’d like to thank him. He has energized thousands of new GOP voters, voters who are tired of the party ignoring them on Amnesty, ignoring them on Obamacare, ignoring them on Radical Islam and Ignoring them on Common Core. Mr. Trump has talked about these issues and they have entered the national conversation.”

“And I thank him again for it again, because for years I have been in Washington fighting tirelessly to stop Amnesty so I’m pleased to see Donald Trump adding his words to my actions, for years I have been in Washington fighting tirelessly to defund and stop Obamacare and I’m pleased to see Donald Trump add his words to support my actions, for years I’ve been in Washington fighting tirelessly to get this administration to acknowledge the danger and reality of radical Islam and I’m pleased to see Donald Trump add his voice to support my fight and for years I’ve been making the fight in Washington against Common Core and I’m simply delighted to have Donald Trump add his words to support my fight.

And to those new voters who want to make America Great again, who are angry about Obamacare, Amnesty, Common Core and worried about radical islam I say to you your fight is the one I’ve been fighting for years. Donald Trump’s words are great and I’m pleased to hear them, but if you want someone in the White House that has actually fought these fights that you care about. I ask you for your vote.”

Furthermore every single time Donald Trump brings up these issues in the debate Ted Cruz should affirm these issues that Trump raising AND point to the solid steps that he Ted Cruz has done to achieve them.

I suggest that this is the right way to go for several reasons:

1. It complements Donald Trump for raising these issues that other candidates are ducking
2. It affirms the voters who have come out for Trump noting that their concerns are valid rather than attacking them
3. It brings up Ted Cruz’s record on all of these issues, a record that is superior to all the Non-Trump candidates
4. It notes the difference between Talking about an issue, and DOING something bout an issue
5. It does all of these things without actually attacking Trump.
6. It’s an honest and straightforward case as opposed to the Romney tax BS

I don’t deny this is a going to be a tough sell, but until anyone else comes up with a better way to attract the Donald Trump voters I submit and suggest this is the best plan out there and frankly better than anything an expensive consultant is throwing out there.  And if anyone has a better plan I’d be delighted to hear it.

Good Luck.

Update: At the Weekly Standard (via Insty) they are thinking differently

In his indispensible newsletter, the Transom, Ben Domenech makes a profound observation about tonight’s debate: The best way to become the “Not Trump,” is to beat Trump. And the way to beat him isn’t to argue that he’s a meanie or detail his ideological inconsistencies. It’s to go full-alpha and nuke him from orbit.

I don’t think that will play with Trump voters myself

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Ok We’ve now had three primaries and my man Ted Cruz has won 1, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd once.  A pretty good record so far.  In baseball that would be a .333 avg.

Marco Rubio who is being celebrated by the pundits and the party as the man to watch has one 2nd place finish and one 3rd place finish and a 5th.  And for all of the glowing words of his supporters he has yet to win a race (somebody should write a song about that)

John Kasich has managed one 2nd place victory and hasn’t done better than 5th anywhere else.

And Ben Carson has not finished higher than 4th.

Yet right now all the talk on the cable news and in the media seems to be:

 How the GOP establishment is rallying around Marco Rubio 

How the party is trying to talk Kasich into puling out to enable Rubio

How the party is trying to keep Ben Carson in to counter Ted Cruz

All of this seems to ignore a simple fact:  Donald Trump

In three contests thus far Donald Trump has won two of them and came in 2nd in the other.

 

If Mr. Trump did not run and Jeb Bush had done this everyone would have declared the race over.

If Mitt Romney had done this in 2012 the pundits would have declared the GOP race over.

Yet the only thing anyone seems to be talking about is which guy is going to take Trump out.

This is ridiculous.

Donald Trump is the front-runner.  He has not only won two contests out of three but more importantly after losing the first contest that he was expected to win was able to learn from it and make the necessary adjustments.

Furthermore he has been winning by increasing GOP turnout to record levels bringing in new voters anxious to hear his two primary messages:

No Amnesty

Stopping Radical Islam

These two primary messages have overshadowed gaffes and contradictions that would have doomed a less popular candidate, but Trump’s base and audience are larger than the media which would dearly love to destroy him and beyond the reach of the GOP establishment which has no influence on the people who support him.

These are the facts and no amount of wishful thinking, establishment endorsements or optimistic spin will change it.

So what IS being done to change it?

From Ben Carson?  Little or nothing.  In an open primary was unable to persuade large amounts of the black electorate to cross over to support him, and unless he has some kind of secret weapon up his sleeve his campaign has no prayer of winning anywhere let alone stopping trump.

From John Kasich?  Not much more.  He isn’t even trying in most of the upcoming states and seems to be staking his hopes on Ohio but doesn’t have the cash or the backing to get anywhere.

From Marco Rubio?  His plan seems to be to keep pretending he’s winning even when he doesn’t under the assumption that he has a divine right to the votes of candidates as they drop out which will eventually raise him over Trump but until he proves he can win somewhere anywhere, all of Rubio’s talk mean nothing.

Only my guy Ted Cruz has managed to beat Trump at least once and has continued to attack him using his Trump own words and actions to illustrate him as not a reliable conservative, however even with his strong forward thinking ground game his attacks are blunted by Trump’s ability to attract voters who are not interested in conservative principles.

But if any of them plan on beating Donald Trump they will need to do two things:

Admit that Donald Trump is currently leading:

Adapt their campaigns to deal with Mr. Trumps success.

Reality is what it is and until you admit to reality, you can’t change it.

And the Clock is ticking

 

I was laid off this week from my 3rd shift job so my plan to use said job to pay the mortgage while using the site to get out of debt in a couple of years is out the window unless we suddenly get 125 subscribers at $10 a month. When I say I could use a hand right now I’m not kidding. (We picked up the equivalent of 6 such subscribers this weekend 119 more @$10 a month to go)

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If anyone tells you that they know what’s going to happen today in NH they are full of it.

However while the actual results of the evening are totally up in the air, the MSM memes for today are completely predictable.

DONALD TRUMP:


If Donald wins this by more than 10 pts

MSM will start talking inevitably and declare that only the #2 finisher (unless it’s Ted Cruz) has a prayer to stop him and the talk will be if the establishment decides to go all in.

If Donald trump wins by less that 10 pts (my best guess)

MSM meme will be Trump is vulnerable and MSM will extol the virtues of any 2nd or 3rd place finisher not named Ted Cruz as the alternative to Trump.

If Trump loses to any person not named Ted Cruz.

Said person will be lionized and the Trump campaign declared a paper tiger, they will really cheer if it’s a Bush or Kasich.

If Trump loses to Ted Cruz

Mass Seppuku among members of the MSM and the Party will go all out to push whoever is 2nd.

TED CRUZ

See above if he wins

If Cruz finishes in 2nd or 3rd.

Media will pretend he doesn’t exist and will push the other 2nd or 3rd place finisher , if he gets 3rd by less that 2 pts they’ll push the 4th place person as advancing too.

If Cruz finishes 4th or below , even by one vote

MSM will treat him as a one trick pony and pretend his national campaign is doomed.

 

MARCO RUBIO

If Rubio finishes 2nd or 3rd

He will  be pushed as he alternative to Donald Trump unless a governor finishes 2nd then Rubio will be hit as a guy on the decline.

If Rubio finishes 5th or below

He will be written off by the MSM

 

JEB BUSH, JOHN KASICH, CHRIS CHRISTIE (who can tell the difference anymore?)

 

If any one of them finish in 2nd -4th

Said candidate will be dubbed the “Winner” of NH Establishment primary which will be treated as more important than actually winning..  If more than 1 finishes in the top 4 both will be cheered.

If the finish is 2nd place said candidate will be treated  as if they actual won NH even if they are 20+ pts behind the winner.

Any finish by a gov below 4th and said candidate will be told it’s time to go.

Note Jeb Bush will be treated as if he finished one level ahead of whatever spot he finishes at.

BEN CARSON

Unless he finishes 4th or above he will be totally ignored except to blame Ted Cruz for said finish.

MSM will do their best to keep Carson in the race in the hope that he will hurt Ted Cruz in the south.

 

CARLY FIORINA

Unless she finishes top 4 MSM will say it’s time to go.  If she finishes top 4 with Cruz and Rubio may become de facto Establishment alternative

 

JIM GILMORE

If he finishes about any other candidate it will be treated as  a victory.  If he does not then he’ll tweet out that he’s now in the top 5-8 depending on how many candidates drop out.

MY PREDICTION:  The only candidate that drops out post NH is Chris Christie unless Kasich finishes 6th then he’ll consider it.

 

The Democrats:

BERNIE SANDERS

If Sanders wins by less that 15 points.

MSM will treat result as a great Clinton Comeback and Bill will talk about Hillary as the 2nd coming of the comeback kid.  If it’s single digits it will be considered the Clinton miracle.

If Sanders wins by 15+

Bloomberg is in, Biden is maybe in and Hillary & Bill launch an all out campaign to destroy him that will make the attacks at Ken Starr look like nothing.

 

HILLARY CLINTON

If somehow Hillary Clinton wins

It’s all over for Bernie & the FBI investigation

 

The chances of Hillary being indicted are directly related to how well she does.

My best guess (Bernie by 12)

 

All of this is fun but remember this above all:

 

The actual results are secondary to the the meme the MSM wants to push, those have already been determined.  The only question is will the results allow those memes to be credible.

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Today my plan had been to take a day off of work, head to NH, visit some polling places and finish at the Ted Cruz event in Hollis.

Instead I’m in bed, unable to stand for more than a few minutes with my head spinning and unable to hold down even dry cereal.

The irony is that these symptoms which are considered normal in the aftermath aftermath of my illness could go on for months and continue to cost me days of work that I can’t afford to miss.

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There is a lot to say about Iowa’s results and I’ll be saying it a bit later but I want to note one story from the results in Iowa that is getting no press.

As you know by now Ted Cruz won Iowa with 28% of the vote Trump came in 2nd and Rubio came in 3rd with 24% Ben Carson finished 4th.

There is something about this result that jumps out at me right away.

For years we’ve been told about the xenophobic, bigoted GOP that doesn’t care for blacks and Hispanics yet with 12 candidates on the ballot, 9 whites, one black and 2 hispanic for the party Iowa republicans gave the victory to a Hispanic candidate, gave 3rd place to another hispanic candidate and 4th place to a black candidate.

Between Cruz Rubio and Carson over 60% of GOP votes went to candidates of color in the state of Iowa.

Given the MSM’s meme of the GOP as a bunch of racists I’d think that would be big news yet nobody is talking about what this says concerning the GOP and diversity and race.

I wonder why?

Update: On Morning Joe Sam Stein just touted the 1st woman to “apparently” win the Iowa caucus but had nothing to say about the 1st Hispanic to win an Iowa caucus.

Unexpectedly

Update 2: Lindsey Graham with a straight face just said on Morning Joe that Marco Rubio & Ted Cruz will hurt the GOP with hispanics if nominated because nothing turns off hispanics like nominating the 1st ever hispanic to the top of a major party ticket.

You’ll never lack a spot on MSNBC if you’re a republican willing to declare the GOP out of touch with hispanics & woman.

Update 3: Iowahawk

Update 4: John Nolte at Breitbart notices

Because the DC Media believe it is a powerful weapon that benefits Democrats, nothing will ever stop them from using it. But if this same media truly believed in science and objectivity, the results in Iowa would forever end their relentless smears against conservatives as racists. Tuesday night, one of the whitest and most conservative states in the country — Iowa — gave 60% of the Republican vote to two Hispanics and a black man.

Update 5 Made this prediction just before Jake tapper’s show: on CNN started

23 minutes he did just that in an interview with the GOP chair

Which begs the obvious question

I’d love a good answer to that.

Update 6: Days later the Washington post finally asks the question and of course downplays any suggestion of media bias.

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The good news is that while my face has not fully recovered, web traffic has. January 2016 marks the 4th straight month of recovery and the doldrums of 2014 & early 2015 seem completely behind.

The bad news is DaTipjar has not recovered to 2013 levels yet. With a $62 a day avg goal as of Jan 30th we’re reached where I hoped we’d be January 7th, just over 25%.

Given where the economy is rather than where the MSM pretends it is and that it is January both are understandable and to those who have kicked in (particularly subscribers), thanks much.

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When viewed in an inertial reference frame, an object either remains at rest or continues to move at a constant velocity, unless acted upon by an external force

Newton’s 1st law of Motion

Lyndon Johnson’s loss had been due a political fluke. He had been beaten not by his opponent’s friends but by his opponent’s foes. 

Lyndon Johnson the Path to Power

A few days ago I saw a piece concerning Iowa that crunched the numbers in Iowa that suggest Donald Trump is going to have more trouble than he thinks in Iowa.

Really, so in order to justify Trump’s lead, somehow 50,000 more caucus attendees will have to show up and vote for Trump than have ever shown up before. Trump has 12 paid staffers in Iowa, led by Tana Goetz, a 48-year-old former runner up on “The Apprentice.” Wow, what raw horsepower.

He contrasts that to Ted Cruz:

Cruz has over 1,000 precinct chairs, a 240-plus person leadership team and over 5,000 volunteers in every one of Iowa’s 99 counties (all of which Cruz has pledged to visit before the caucuses, and it looks like he’ll make it happen). They’re led by seasoned professionals such as Jake Dagel, who was field director for Turning Point USA.

It’s a devastating  analysis but it overlooks one very important thing, and that’s strategic voting

While the GOP doesn’t have the same process as the dems who can, if the supporters of a candidate can’t get enough people to go with them to advance go with another candidate, it’s going to be very apparent very early if an attendee’s candidate has a shot in their district.

When that happens then it will be time for voters to decide:  “Do I stick with my guy or do I think strategically?”

Think if you are a Jeb Bush, or a Chris Christie, or a John Kasich guy.  Your man isn’t going to win Iowa, you likely won’t even finish in the top 3.  What is your game plan to win the nomination?

If you’re Jeb Bush guy, you need to be the last non-Trump man standing.  So you have to stop Ted Cruz.

If you’re Chris Christie or John Kasich you have to finish in the top 3 in NH, you aren’t likely to stop Donald Trump there so you have to stop Ted Cruz.

You’re Carly Fiorina, Trump is a perfect foil for your campaign, Ted Cruz is not so you have to stop Ted Cruz.

and it’s not just establishment types thinking this;

You’re a Mike Huckabee or a Rick Santorum supporter, your only prayer (assuming you have one) is to cancel out the one guy who has taken the votes you won with in 2008  & 2012 so that you can win in the south so you have to stop Ted Cruz.

You are Ben Carson voter, you know your man who has the potential to attract voters in the south who might normally not vote in a GOP primary but you have to get to those primaries with a campaign still alive so you have to stop Ted Cruz.

Your Rand Paul voter, you can’t allow libertarians to be looking for another principled alternative so you have to stop Ted Cruz.

The only candidate with a disincentive to this is Marco Rubio, the NYT not withstanding he needs to keep his guys in line to keep himself viable, a fight between him and Cruz diminishes his rivals and increases him, he needs is folks to boost his numbers at all costs.

Now you might say:  “But Datechguy Iowa is a big conservative state what makes you think there are enough establishment votes to save Iowa for Trump”

My answer.  Mitt lost Iowa by only 8 votes and those Mitt guys are all in for Bush  stopping Cruz.

Bottom line, with the exception of Marco Rubio every single other candidate has an incentive to stop Ted Cruz from winning Iowa, even if it gives the win to Trump.

Trump doesn’t need 50,000 extra voters to show up at the caucus to win, he simply needs enough voters to put the other candidates voters in a spot where they have a pragmatic choice between helping Trump win or helping letting Cruz win.

That is Donald Trump’s secret weapon and don’t think for one moment he doesn’t know it.

P.S.  You’ll not that I didn’t include Jim Gilmore with all due respect for the former gov of VA why would I?

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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

The questions that have been asked so far in this debate, illustrate why the American people don’t trust the media. This is not a cage match. And if you look at the questions, Donald Trump, are you a comic book villain? Ben Carson, can you do the math? John Kasich, can you insult two people over here? Marco Rubio, why don’t you resign? Jeb Bush, why have your numbers fallen? How about talking about the substantive issues —

Ted Cruz CNBC Debate Oct 29th 2015

Last week Ted Cruz has his single biggest moment in the GOP race to this point when during the CNBC debate he called out the bias of the MSM against the GOP contrasting it with how Democrats have been treated by said media and suggested that perhaps the people asking the questions of the person seeking the GOP nomination should have voted in such a primary at least once.

During the week that followed we heard all kinds of snark suggesting that if the GOP couldn’t handle CNBC they couldn’t handle the white house, they were called whiners, complainers and attacked by press from CNN MSNBC and even Megyn Kelly of Fox news.

However on Friday we had a 24 hour period where the Media did their best to make his point for him.

Item 1.  The only way a Black Man escapes the Democrat Plantation is Death

Months ago just after he announced I covered a Ben Carson Q & A in NH and ask him about the media 180 on him since he critiqued the president at the Prayer Breakfast.

at the time Carson’s prospects were considered slim and none and slim was not in town. Well a few weeks after he finished 2nd in the 603 alliance caucus of confirmed NH voters and just a few days after a Quinnipiac poll showed that he was drawing nearly 20% of te black vote, enough to make a Democrat victory impossible in a general election. The media decided to go after him in a Big way.

Politico put out hit piece on Carson claiming he was lying about some childhood & teenage stories. Before you knew it every single media outlet was piling on as illustrated by this image via the Rush Limbaugh site:

Journalistic-Malpractice

and this statement

See? From the moment I told you about this, this is exactly what I told you The Politico’s purpose was. They want you to think that Carson never went to West Point but that he says he did. “Politico published a piece Friday claiming Carson’s campaign ‘admits fabricating’ the fact that he applied and was admitted to West Point.” So they go to the West Point spokesbabe today and she says, “No, we had no application. He didn’t apply, and he certainly didn’t attend here.”

So they clearly want ignorant, impressionable, uninformed readers to think that Ben Carson’s out there writing in his book that he went to West Point and that The Politico today has uncovered the fact that he didn’t. And do you want to know how successful this is? I’m not gonna mention any names here. In the opening segment of this program, I’m going through exactly what I just told you here, and somebody on the other side of the glass shouted to me, “It doesn’t matter, he’s toast! The truth doesn’t matter. He’s toast.”

And this might be true if Carson was a regular pol but if you think a fellow who has spent hours fighting for the lives of kids considered doomed was going to just give up they were quite mistaken. Carson called the story “an outright lie” American Elephant put it well

and lo and behold within a few hours Politico had already edited their story (without mentioning the edits) and CNN was putting out a story titled “Where Politico’s Ben Carson ‘Scoop’ Went Wrong

The rewritten article did not initially include a correction or editor’s note, although a note was later added on Friday. Politico again said it “stands by its reporting.”

Of course by the time these corrections were promulgated the low info voters who don’t follow the news or see the corrections will have the background noise of “Ben Carson Lied” added into things “everybody knows.”

Take a look at the press conference below

And remember the primary subject of these questions are concerning a dinner he attended at age 18.

Now some might say, hey this guy is running for president of the United States, this isn’t softball, he’s got to demonstrate that he can stand up and take it.

However that very evening we saw a very different press event for Democrats…

2. MSNBC invites the Hillary Clinton & Co over to play  softball

At 8 PM Friday evening MSNBC broadcast the First in the south Democrat forum featuring Martin O’Malley, BErnie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.

The Contrast was quite striking.

Unlike the combative CNBC, Fox & CNN Debates the Democrat Candidates appeared one at a time without worrying about being challenged by their opponents

Unlike the CNBC debate and the Scrum around Ben Carson earlier in the day. Rather than facing confrontational questions from political opponents like Ben Carson and the GOP CNBC debaters did the Democrat Candidates faced questions from Rachel Maddow the most liberal of hosts on MSNBC all based on affirming their worldview rather than challenging it.

And while Mr. Carson’s words at a dinner at age 18 were considered relevant neither this story which broke this morning:

A day after assuming office as secretary of state, Clinton signed a Sensitive Compartmented Information Nondisclosure Agreement that laid out criminal penalties for “any unauthorized disclosure” of classified information.

Experts have guessed that Clinton signed such an agreement, but a copy of her specific contract, obtained by the Competitive Enterprise Institute through an open records request and shared with the Washington Free Beacon, reveals for the first time the exact language of the NDA.

Nor he contradictory explanations concerning the cause of the Benghazi attack.

An email released by the House Select Committee on Benghazi Saturday suggests Hillary Clinton’s State Department was advised to tell two different stories about what sparked the 2012 Benghazi terror attack: one to the U.S., and another in Libya.

Both which took place while secretary of state in this administration were not newsworthy enough to elicit a question on the topic from Miss Maddow. Here is one of the questions

 

Now you might say that it’s the job of the press to examine the words of a top tier GOP candidate like Ben Carson and you might also say that at the Democrat Forum Rachel Maddow asked some questions of real substance, particularly the one on the tech industry & in both cases you would be right…

…HOWEVER if I was a candidate like Ted Cruz, who was roundly attacked for contrasting the way Democrats and Republicans are treated by the press and ridiculed by Megyn Kelly for suggesting that perhaps the GOP should have it’s debates moderated by people who actually vote in GOP elections the next time someone questioned either of these statements and asked why he’s spending his time talking about media coverage I’d hand them a DVD of the Media coverage of November 6th 2015 and answer:

THIS is why.

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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

Pseudolus: [to Hysterium] Calm yourself down! I’ll tell you when it’s time to panic!
Miles Gloriosus: I smell mischief here!
Pseudolus:  It’s time.

A Funny Thing Happened on the way to the Forum 1966

 

Given how far off the polls were in Kentucky it might seem odd to talk about the importance of  poll, particularly this far out from election day but as I looked at the internals of the Quinnipiac poll which tells us that Cruz, Christie Carson and Rubio all beat Hillary head to head from anywhere from 3-10 pts and found there were  numbers that you need to know when it comes to this poll.

34-32

That is the ratio of Democrats to republicans in this poll.  That’s a two point advantage for democrats.  That matters because according to gallop the spread is actually a 4 point democrat advantage.  This could mean one of two things:

 Republicans were over sampled which means the polls are slightly closer that they appear

The Gap between republicans and democrats is closing.

If it’s the first then it means that other than Ben Carson Hillary is actually within the margin or error on Rubio, Cruz and Christie which is still not a good thing but it doesn’t mean that it’s time for Democrats to panic.

If it’s the 2nd, then it’s time for the Democrats to panic

While that set of numbers might be a source of general panic for democrats there is a 2nd specific set up numbers  concerning a specific candidate that should bother them very much.

73-19

That is the split of the Black Vote if the candidates for President are Hillary Clinton for the Democrats (73) and Ben Carson for republicans (19)

Now by any normal measure winning a group by a 54% margin would make you feel pretty good, but for Democrats this is a disaster.

The days when a Democrat can win the presidency with only 73% of the black vote is long gone and as for a republican winning 19% of the black vote, you have to go back to Nixon in 1960 (32%) to see any number near that 19% and that year Nixon only won 49 of the White vote.

Now I’m a Ted Cruz guy but I’m telling you right now Democrats are terrified of Ben Carson and will do all they can to destroy him because if he is the nominee or even on the ticket you can’t guarantee the numbers in the black community that the left needs to win.

If I was the Democrats, I’d be scared, very scared.

Exit question, picture a Carson/Cruz or a Cruz/Carson ticket.  If you are a local Democrat machine, do you risk providing transportation to black and hispanic voters who might inside the booth decide to vote their race rather than their party?

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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

the 603 alliance had their caucus today at the Hopkinton State Fair grounds in Contoocook NH. The idea was to get conservatives in NH to unite behind a single candidate via a caucus.

Ted Cruz has won, Ben Carson came in 2nd Carly Fiorina 3rd. Donald Trump failed to make the first cut not managing 25 votes, Jeb bush didn’t manage a single vote.

Under the rules if the winner of the 603 alliance caucus drops out of the presidential race the people pledge to support the 2nd place finisher and so forth.

Expect updates

Update 1

I arrived at the event at 10:30 AM one hour before registration was to end. The person directing me to park commented on the number of people who had showed up and expressed worry about finding places for all of them.

Any voter who was in line at 11:30 would be checked in as long as they met the following requirements

1. They were a Registered republican voter in NH.

2. They were a registered unenrolled NH voter who pledged that they had not taken a democrat ballot

3. They had a photo ID.

Ted Cruz showed up in person to greet people before the start of the event

It was very apparent that his people were there in force and read and raring to go. Ben Carson’s people were also well represented:

603 stills 1 006

I hand counted 718 people. at my arrival and it was very clear that some candidates took this very seriously and others did not.

and the vote would come down to who bothered to show

Under the rules of the Caucus any candidate who failed to get at least 25 votes in the first round would be eliminated. From the looks of things early it seemed it would be a Cruz vs Carson race

Ted Cruz showed up in person to make his case, speakers showed up to speak for Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump and Carly fiorina. Oddly enough while Rand Paul had two events in the area his people did not show up for the caucus.

Expect another update

Final update:

Here are some random images from the event

Here are the speeches from the event for the various candidates & their reps before the vote:

Ted cruz spoke in person:

However there were representatives for other candidates Marco Rubio:

Ben Carson:

But the most eloquent speech for a candidate not there came from Rep Baldarsio for Donald Trump:

Based on this speech representative Baldarsio’s candidate deserved a better fate after the first round of Voting Donald Trump was eliminated for not drawing the 25 votes necessary to advance.

But even so Trump did infinitely better than Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, George Pataki, Rick Santorum, Lindsey Graham, Jim Gilmore combined who despite a ton of time spent in the state by some and millions in superpac money belonging to others didn’t garner a single vote between them

In addition to trump Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and John Kasich all failed to get 25 votes (but at least weren’t shut out like Bush Christie & co.

Trump had not missed the first cut by much and once he was out the other candidates scrambled for his votes. When the 2nd round was done however Fiorina had not been able to catch up with Carson and was out. It was down to Cruz and Carson but while the absent Carson had made a decent showing Cruz’s crew was just too large:

When it was all over I talked to Diane Vitter of the 603 alliance:

I think several candidates made a big mistake not showing up. Rand Paul was less than a mile from the location in the very same town. Lindsey Graham has spent the last week in the state, and the fact that Kasich managed to get votes when Bush was not.

As for the candidates there, if I was Carly Fiorina I’d make a big fuss about advancing when Trump did not, and if I was Ben Carson I’d point to a 2nd place showing while being on a book tour.

And Ted Cruz, well that’s tomorrow’s lead post.

Final update, some stills:

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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

By:  Pat Austin

SHREVEPORT – The latest CNN poll reveals nothing more than that Election 2016 is still anyone’s game; well, almost anyone.  I think Kasich, Santorum, and Jindal can hang it up and start vying for positions in a future Republican administration.

Following the CNN debate Carly Fiorina’s numbers have surged and Trump has stumbled a bit.  Carson has also dropped while Rubio has advanced.

This debate was the first one I’ve watched this season.  I wanted to watch to see what I’m missing about Trump – everyone is so thrilled that he is saying things nobody else will say, they’re ready to elect him, it seems.  I remain unconvinced.

Trump does indeed say the most outrageous things.  Several times during this debate my jaw simply dropped in stunned silence that such utterings could come from a supposedly serious presidential contender.  On the subject of whether or not vaccines cause autism, a claim now debunked by science, Trump holds fast:

I am totally in favor of vaccines. But I want smaller doses over a longer period of time. Because you take a baby in — and I’ve seen it — and I’ve seen it, and I had my children taken care of over a long period of time, over a two or three year period of time.

Same exact amount, but you take this little beautiful baby, and you pump — I mean, it looks just like it’s meant for a horse, not for a child, and we’ve had so many instances, people that work for me.

Just the other day, two years old, two and a half years old, a child, a beautiful child went to have the vaccine, and came back, and a week later got a tremendous fever, got very, very sick, now is autistic.

It’s as if the child simply caught a permanent case of flu or something.  Based on nothing whatsoever, Trump concludes that this child “now is autistic” because of “the vaccine.”  Based on what?  A fever?  It’s simply an irresponsible and outrageous claim without real evidence behind it and one that strikes fear in the hearts of parents.  Shame on him.

On the subject of war with Afghanistan, I think Dr. Ben Carson really hurt himself when he indicated that the “bully pulpit” would have been his first choice rather that war after 9/11:

I said, you can do the same kind of thing. Declare that within five to 10 years we will become petroleum independent. The moderate Arab states would have been so concerned about that, they would have turned over Osama bin Laden and anybody else you wanted on a silver platter within two weeks.

There are smart ways to do things and there are muscular ways to do things. And sometimes you have to look at both of those to come up with the right solution.

This puts him straight in the camp with Ron Paul, I think, and while I think Ben Carson is a brilliant and gentle man, he cannot lead this country at this time with this philosophy.  It is naïve at best.

Peggy Noonan’s analysis of this debate was as spot on as any I’ve seen and her remarks on Carly Fiorina perfectly summarize her performance:

Ms. Fiorina has broken through again. This was the debate in which she became an acknowledged heavyweight. She is prepared, has a highly organized mind, and remains collected under the lights in a way that allows her to be what she is, knowledgeable and eloquent. She was brilliant on Planned Parenthood, direct on Mr. Trump and bankruptcy—at this point she’s using him as a foil. Her closing remarks on Lady Liberty and Lady Justice were so strong, the man sitting next to me insisted she must have known the question was coming. She can, however, be too stern. There’s nothing wrong with putting a woman on the currency; it does not erase anyone’s history.

That being said, (and I’m sure I’m about to infuriate a lot of people) I think Carly will most likely end up in the VP slot – and she would be superb there.

As for Rubio, I think he is statesmanlike, knowledgeable, and strong, but too many people simply don’t trust him anymore. I don’t know if he can overcome that.  He will carry that Gang of Eight vote with him like an albatross, yet this is what he says today:

So I’ve seen every aspect of it, and I can tell you America doesn’t have one immigration problem, it has three.

First, despite the fact that we are the most generous country in the history of the world in allowing people to come here legally, we have people still coming illegally.

Second, we have a legal immigration system that no longer works. It primary is built on the basis of whether you have a relative living here instead of merit.

And third, we have 11 million or 12 million people, many of whom have been here for longer than a decade who are already here illegally.

And we must deal with all three of these problems. We cannot deal with all three of these problems in one massive piece of legislation. I learned that. We tried it that way.

Here’s the way forward: First, we must — we must secure our border, the physical border, with — with a wall, absolutely. But we also need to have an entry/exit tracking system. 40 percent of the people who come here illegally come legally, and then they overstay the visa. We also need a mandatory e-verify system.

After we’ve done that, step two would be to modernize our legal immigration system so you come to America on the basis of what you can contribute economically, not whether or not simply you have a relative living here.

As strong as he is on so many other issues, Rubio may never get past immigration; voters have long memories and much mistrust these days.

In the end, I think the CNN poll shows more than anything else that we still have a long way to go and we can anticipate many more changes to come.  Once the undercard starts filtering out and those votes swing hither and yon, as will the money, things will change as well.

I have a friend who swears that Trump is going to pull out of this and swing his support, and votes, to Ted Cruz.  I’m not seeing that at all, but there you go.  I do believe, at least, that Trump never really intended to be this far ahead when he got in this and is as surprised as anyone that he’s still in the lead.  But, he’s faltering now, I think. His biggest line is always a blustery roll about how successful he’s been and not much substance after that.

It’s a long way to 2016 and will certainly be an entertaining ride.

 

Pat Austin blogs at And So it Goes in Shreveport.

I carefully avoided watching the first 1.5 hours of last night’s televised candidate forum, mostly because (a) I intensely dislike The Donald – as ex-wife #1 refers to him – and expected him to turn it into The Donald Show, with him being on center stage thanks to Fox News lectern placement, and (b) life is short and nobody was paying me to watch.

Yes. You can pay me to watch. Contact me here if you’re interested.

Apparently I missed the best line of the evening,

Moderator: “Will you support Kate’s Law, establishing mandatory five year prison sentences for repeat illegal aliens?”

Ted Cruz: “Yes. I WROTE Kate’s Law.”

I did watch the last half hour or so to listen to the closing statements,  starting at about the point when Kasich was asked about theoretical gay children. That’s what I think of as an “instant eye-roll question.” The question was old when Dick Cheney was asked if he supported his daughter (who actually is gay) back in, was it 2009? 2008? Whenever.

The impressions I had from the last half hour were:

  1. First and foremost: The moderators kept paying more attention to Trump than to anyone else, making themselves enablers of The Donald Show; while especially ignoring Ted Cruz, who got their attention almost incidentally.
  2. I found Ben Carson charming, refreshing, and engaging, a little nervous, but the anti-Trump personality-wise. I like that in a guy.
  3. Why were Santorum & Huckabee there, and not Fiorina?
  4. Go.Away.Jeb! His record as governor should get him to the WH, but he hasn’t held public office since two governors ago? And, again, enough of the dynasties, please.
  5. Rubio looked good. What was it with Christie’s hair?
  6. I loved Cruz’s reply to the God question, but really, God? What did they expect, the Blues Brothers?

In short, as Andrea Dillon tweeted,

Exit questions: Apparently Trump is the only one who did not rule out running as third party. As I understand it, the Federal Election Commission allows parties to exclude candidates who refuse to rule out running against that party’s final nominee. Am I correct? Would it be counterproductive to cut off Trump now, rather than later?

And another gripe: Why call this a debate? I think of a debate as “a formal contest in which the affirmative and negative sides of a proposition are advocated by opposing speakers.” With that many candidates, it’s a forum, not an actual debate. Had it been a debate, Ted and Carly would have eaten The Donald’s lunch, and left a tip, too.

The Democrats, whose candidates you could probably find at the Denny’s early bird special, will have their first forum on October 13 on CNN. I wonder if they’ll bring back Candy Crowley for the occasion.

Fausta Rodriguez Wertz writes on U.S. and Latin American politics, news and culture at Fausta’s Blog.