Robert Stacy McCain reports that Dede Scozzafava has not been forgotten by democrats grateful for one of their few pleasant surprises of election evening

What Dede Scozzafava did can never be forgiven, nor should it ever be forgotten.

You might recall that once it was clear she could not win in NY-23 she endorsed the Democrat Bill Owens who managed re-election with three names on the ballot for the 2nd time.

I still say the NRCC owes us 900k. A lot to think about for the next chairman who should keep it in mind.

Talk about a meaningless gesture:

Rep. Bill Owens, a Democrat from upstate New York, may back House Republican leader John Boehner for speaker.

Talk about a reverse FishBait Miller scenario. Although it would look good symbolically the GOP needs Bill Owens as much as Dan Maeffi will need his congressional parking space after Jan 3rd.

It’s going to take more than a meaningless vote to return Bill Owns to the House

Update: I guess he figured it out

A New York Democrat has changed his mind about possibly voting for GOP leader John Boehner as the next House speaker.

Rep. Bill Owens now says he was “blowing off a little steam” when he told the Adirondack Daily Enterprise on Monday that it was “quite possible” he could vote for Boehner as speaker.

I guess he will have to win election the old fashioned way and earn it.

Still only $50 in the kitty. I’ve had the car checked and struts replaced. ($225) an I’m told I need two new tires before I even think about such a trip.

I won’t be asking the readers for this since they are things I would need no matter what, but it very much looks like anything that goes on in Pa-12 will happen without me. If you want to change that click here.

However that is less important that what IS going on in PA-12 and that seems to be trending poorly:

Mark Critz, a former aide to the late John Murtha and the Democratic nominee to replace him, has pulled out to a 6-point lead in the special election for Pennsylvania’s 12th district, according to a new Susquehanna poll. Critz leads Republican Tim Burns 44%-38% with less than a week to go.

This is a huge swing from polls last month showing Burns in the lead and over 40%. Of course there is certainly time to turn this around but the interesting this is the fact that this takes place after Critz has taken pains to distance himself from both the party and the healthcare vote. That fact in itself speaks volumes to the populartiy of the democratic congress and the power of the tea party message.

Critz is taking pains to distance himself from its agenda as the vote draws nearer. Most conspicuously, the former Murtha aide launched a television ad this weekend in which — with his voice apparently hoarse from the campaign trail — he aims to set the record straight and declares his opposition to the health care law passed and signed last month. It was a response to an ad from the National Republican Campaign Committee which said Critz “will put the liberal agenda before Pennsylvania.”

“I’m pro life and pro gun. That’s not a liberal,” Critz says in his own spot.

Critz’s camp also says he opposes a proposed cap-and-trade law, something Murtha voted for when the House first acted on it last year.

Burns should be pressing on the repeal issue, Critz is talking a good game but will he vote for repeal and if he says so how long will it take him to break that promise? It only took Bill Owens of NY-23 one day to break four of his.

PA-12 voters should consider carefully before they let themselves be hoodwinked on this, and Burns should be playing that flip flop card strongly.

…is actually a better candidate because they have the experience of losing. Failure tends to be a rough but solid teacher, but you need to have a student willing to learn from those lessons.

If Martha Coakley was the type, she could learn from her loss and come back stronger. I don’t know if she is the type but we will see.

Which brings us to Doug Hoffman.

Conservatives owe Doug Hoffman a real debt. If Dede Scozzafava had won she would not only been a vote for Obamacare, she would have been on every TV show and every network portrayed as the “Republican”. She would have been jammed down our throats as the “bipartisan” republican ideal and proof that republicans had to abandon conservatism.

If we had Scozzafava, we would not have had Scott Brown, Period! The only reason why we don’t have Scozzafava is because of Doug Hoffman. I met Doug briefly at CPAC and shook his hand thanking him. We owe him big.

All that being said he made some errors. At the debate he seemed weak on local issues, he conceded too quickly and then unconseded and then reacted poorly when the loss held up.

These were all errors but are not fatal errors. With time and experience under his belt he has been busy, not only keeping up his conservative credentials nationally but within the district. With hard work on the local issues he will be better prepared to face Bill Owens in the fall. It is necessary to have both a national and local message, a primary election will enable that.

Of course Bill Owens breaking of his campaign promises with record speed certainly won’t hurt Doug, particularly since he attacked incredibly unpopular obamacare way back when (was this only 4 months ago?)

So as the bard wrote, once more, once more unto the breech.

“I’m just an average citizen, standing up to say, ‘We’re fed up. We’re not going to take this any more,’ ” Mr. Hoffman told The Washington Times in a telephone interview Tuesday. “I don’t think anybody should expect to inherit political office … . I’m going to work very hard to earn the respect and support of all the voters in the district.”

Nice to see Stacy’s byline at the Washington Times again. The village voice may think it’s funny but I suspect they will not be laughing in November. As Stacy writes:

“I do know there are a lot of grass-roots supporters around the district who still have [Hoffman for Congress] signs in their basements, and they’re itching to get them back out.”

Well it’s time to break out mine too.

Vote Hoffman!

On election night I wrote this:

I think Hoffman’s concession is premature but that’s his decision to make not mine.

Now it looks like I might have been righter than I thought:

Now a recanvassing in the 11-county district shows that Owens’ lead has narrowed to 3,026 votes over Hoffman, 66,698 to 63,672, according to the latest unofficial results from the state Board of Elections.

In Oswego County, where Hoffman was reported to lead by only 500 votes with 93 percent of the vote counted election night, inspectors found Hoffman actually won by 1,748 votes — 12,748 to 11,000.

The new vote totals mean the race will be decided by absentee ballots, of which about 10,200 were distributed, said John Conklin, communications director for the state Board of Elections.

Under a new law in New York that extended deadlines, military and overseas ballots received by this coming Monday (and postmarked by Nov. 2) will be counted. Standard absentee ballots had to be returned this past Monday.

Conklin said the state sent a letter to the House Clerk last week explaining that no winner had been determined in the 23rd District, and therefore the state had not certified the election. But the letter noted that Owens still led by about 3,000 votes, and that the special election was not contested — two factors that legally allowed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to swear in Owens on Friday.

You mean initial reports might have been incorrect?
It would be an interesting sight if the result changes, we will shortly see. If so the media are going to have their heads spinning.

In case my conservative friends still haven’t gotten it let me say one more time. I dislike this healthcare bill and believe it should be defeated.

But lets look at something interesting:

One month ago it looked like Dede the angrysmug would be elected to congress. She would be the one republican vote for this bill. She would be lionized by the media and held up as an example of moderation and bi-partisianship. She would be interviewed on every MSM outlet and held up as an example saying that Republicans need to moderate on Abortion and Gay Marriage. For a year this would be shoved down our throats.

But by the efforts of Doug Hoffman, Sarah Palin and conservatives all over the country. Dede was dropped like a bad habit and may even lose her position in the NY Republican delegation.

Although Hoffman was not elected he was just about the only republican/conservative who wasn’t on Tuesday. The democrat who defeated him Bill Owens managed to compromise himself with the voters who elected him in under 24 hours (Hoffman 2010). The president was desperate for a victory and more importantly needed one NOW! As time passed the 2010 election would be coming closer and the vote would be more painful and costly for blue dog democrats.

Now comes Joseph Cao the man who replaced William (Refrigerator) Jefferson. His district is about as democratic as you can get and he squeaked through with 49% to win. The bill is very popular there but Cao wasn’t buying and I wrote about this in August:

You know that in a district where there hasn’t been a republican congressman since 1890 and is 64% black it might be politically necessary for a newly elected republican to support the president on some key issues. Even if Abortion is paid for in it..

But Don Surber reports that when congressman Anh Cao says he is a Catholic, unlike say a John Kerry or a Nancy Pelosi he means it:

Cho bluntly stated that he would rather lose his seat than to vote for a healthcare bill that supports abortion.

Obama needed a win and wanted at least one republican so places like Think Progress could have headlines like this:

House Passes Historic, Bipartisan Health Reform Legislation

So comes the Stupak amendment and the vote for it. ONE QUARTER of the democratic caucus votes for the pro-life amendment, Pro-Abortion democrats hold their nose and vote for the final bill anyway.

Now the media has a dilemma: There is a Republican who voted for the bill. He is the first Vietnamese congressman, he has a great story and now he has been the vote for healthcare, one would expect that he would be lionized all over the place…

…however he is a DEVOUT Catholic and only was willing to vote for the bill because the Abortion provision was included and has made it clear that re-election campaign if the Abortion language goes so will he.

What is the MSM to do? Can they lionize an anti-abortion republican? Can they praise him on the talk shows? Will Obey, Maddow, the today show, the view and all the others dare to push him and praise a believing catholic who practices what he preaches?

If they don’t then they lose their bi-partisan meme if they do then they lionize faith. I think they will ignore him, I think in the end the media is so far left that even supporting Obama and this bill is not enough for them to go against their sacrament.

God works in mysterious ways, but I don’t see this as very mysterious. Bills come and go, parties rise and fall but Sin is Sin and God is constant.

I still hope the bill will fail but I’m going to enjoy watching the media squirm over the next two days over Cao.

A: Because it took him less that 1 hour in congress to break 4 campaign promises.

No wonder Dede the angry smugly satisfied endorsed him. Moe Lane is not surprised and Katty Kay apparently knew what she was talking about.

No offense voters of Ny-23 but as always you get the government you deserve.

Vote Hoffman 2010.

I expected a lot more crowing on MSNBC but I guess the gay Marriage defeat is such a shock they can’t manage to bring themselves up to joy.

I’ve already given my two cents on the subject so lets see what a few others have said:

Robert Stacy McCain
:

If the Republican bosses think they’re going to pick another candidate in NY23 for 2010, they’d better think again. The grassroots conservatives — the Tea Party people, the pro-lifers, the Club for Growth, Fred and Jeri Thompson, Sarah Palin — who backed Doug Hoffman aren’t going to forget his courageous example.

His co-blogger Smitty:

Recall that, had nothing been done, an even more leftist candidate than Owens may have taken the one-year seat. Owens wins, but understands that, if he’s running in 2010, he can’t ignore the Hoffman voters, any more than Bill Clinton to ignore fiscal conservatives who voted Perot.

Dump Dede:

We won in NY23. This blog served it’s purpose. Dede Scozzafava was dumped. She was dumped by the demographic to which she fronted, and when no one brought her Victorian freakshow, she removed the mask and revealed herself, lest any doubters remained. We won when we forced the GOP to concede support. We won when we showed them that good political sense and sharp strategy is an instinct, not exclusive to the beltway elite. We won because we wrenched the reigns from their hands.

We the tea party have been leading since February. In order to survive, the GOP must finally cash the promise its collective mouth has been writing about “we the people” and all that jazz: it must relent and let the people lead. Asking politely is a formality: NY23 has shown that we have the power to take it when we want.

Red State:

So we have demonstrated to the GOP that it must not take conservatives for granted. The GOP spent $900,000.00 on a Republican who dropped out and endorsed the Democrat. Were we to combine Scozzafava and Hoffman’s votes, Hoffman would have won.

Secondly, and just as importantly, there has all of a sudden been a huge movement among some activists to go the third party route. We see in NY-23 that this is not possible as third parties are not viable.

Third parties lack funding and ability for a host of reasons. Conservatives are going to have to work from within the GOP. The GOP had better pay attention.

For all intents and purposes, NY-23 is a trial run for Florida. And in Florida, the conservative candidate is operating inside the GOP. If John Cornyn and the NRSC do not want to see Florida go the way of NY-23, they better stand down.

Gotta look at the other Side Andrew Sullivan:

Well, I had begun to assume a big Hoffman victory. Not so fast. Owens has a small but real lead, with over 60 percent of the votes in. More interesting, Palin just doesn’t poll very well in a district that is almost tailor-made for her:

TCOT says that endorsement of Scozzafava what huge:

Doug Hoffman, whose success forced her to withdraw on Saturday showed that her Sunday endorsement of Owens was the decisive factor in his victory.

Owens carried her three home counties that she represents in the New York State Assembly by a decisive 53% to 42% margin. This was an 11% margin increase from the 36% to 36% tie the Siena Poll released on Monday revealed. Scozzafava’s vote dropped from 9% in the Monday poll to 6% in the actual results. Meanwhile, the 19% undecided in the three county region broke hard for Owens. 13% of the undecided went to Owens during a 48 period, while only 6% went to Hoffman.

and he seems the only person who doesn’t support Hoffman:

Owens will face his next electoral challenge in November 2010. He is certain to face a strong Republican challenger. This time around, however, the candidate will not be chosen by the eleven county chairmen meeting in a pizza restaurant. A primary will be held on September 14, 2010.

Though he captured the country’s attention with his humble nature, Hoffman ran such a poor campaign it is unlikely he would emerge as the Republican nominee in a primary, should he choose to run.

Hell hath no fury like an (Italian) woman scorned. He covered this race very well and deserves Props for it.

I’ve been looking for a lefty blog to quote that doesn’t use vulgar sexual references for the tea party crowd. No blog that uses that term in their comment on that race is going to be quoted here. Took me some time but I found on at MyDD:

In the nation’s most watched race, the New York Twenty-Third Congressional, Democrat Bill Owens defeated Conservative Doug Hoffman who was endorsed by Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, the Club for Growth, Fred Thompson, Dick Armey, Tim Pawlenty and much of the GOP leadership albeit belatedly. But in their rush to purify the Republican party, they also succeeded in driving moderates away. In the end, they not only drove Dede Scozzafava, the local GOP candidate, from the race but into the arms of Bill Owens, whom she endorsed. And no doubt, to capture a House seat that had been held by the GOP since the Civil War era is historic.

The battle for the NY-23 had been billed as one for the GOP’s soul. Tea Party conservatives see themselves as the base of the GOP when really they are just a fringe, and a lunatic fringe at that. But what matters in this case is their own perception of the situation. They are, I think, only more embolden to take on the GOP establishment who is frankly spineless, cowering in fear and out of ideas anyway. I suspect that the battle of the GOP’s soul will continue. Still whoever wins that contest wins a shell of a prize. As an aside, the Crist versus Rubio contest down in Florida for the US Senate seat now looks it will provide much fodder for the press and entertainment for us.

So should this mean republicans and Sarah Palin are a losing combination? Lets go straight to the source:

The race for New York’s 23rd District is not over, just postponed until 2010. The issues of this election have always centered on the economy – on the need for fiscal restraint, smaller government, and policies that encourage jobs. In 2010, these issues will be even more crucial to the electorate. I commend Doug Hoffman and all the other under-dog candidates who have the courage to put themselves out there and run against the odds.

To the tireless grassroots patriots who worked so hard in that race and to future citizen-candidates like Doug, please remember Reagan’s words of encouragement after his defeat in 1976:

“The cause goes on. Don’t get cynical because look at yourselves and what you were willing to do, and recognize that there are millions and millions of Americans out there that want what you want, that want it to be that way, that want it to be a shining city on a hill.”

The cause goes on.

Hmmm what happened to that guy who lost in 1976 and was written off?

My take? We lost, spinning it as not a loss just makes us look silly. All politics are local. Doug Hoffman flubbed local issue questions and that cost him, the million that the NRCC spent against him and then followed up with ads supporting him that didn’t even use his name was really lame. Scozzafava’s withdrawal so close to the end of the election made a huge difference because it didn’t give time for the passions and anger of her supporters to cool enough to go for Hoffman the guy who brought her down. If he wants the seat he needs to spend the next 6 months brushing up on those issues. It will all come down to Owens. Voting with Pelosi isn’t going to get him re-elected, but serving the people of his district is. That’s what it will call come down to.

I’ve said that I’d prefer Owens to Dede the angry avenged and I still think we dodged a huge bullet but it’s still a slice of bread instead of a feast. I’ll take the slice but I’m not so blinded that I’m going to pretend that I’m not disappointed.

Biggest Loser? Tim Pawlenty. When the media decided to ignore the Palin endorsement when they thought Hoffman was going to win so they pushed Pawlenty forward, he gains none of the the benefit of leading and taking a shot and all of the rocks from the loss.

Biggest Winner? the Watertown Daily Times:

They never expected one of their stories to be the lede on Memeorandem. They will get the hits again on the rematch, but I’d still like to see where that last 12% goes.

Exit Question: Will the NRCC and Gingrich go all Frum over this or no? If they make that same mistake then it will make 2010 very interesting.

…and that’s ok. I think Hoffman’s concession is premature but that’s his decision to make not mine. There are times you are going to win and times you don’t and if this turns out to be a time we don’t then so be it.

As I’ve already said, it was MUCH more important to have this fight and prevent what would become the media’s “bi-partisan” vote for all that is Pelosi and Obama that to have the seat for the year. I would of course have preferred to have em both but when you’ve had almost the entire loaf, you can’t quibble over the last piece.

If the party had a normal primary Hoffman would have doubtless defeated Dede the (now less) angry and I suspect would have managed to pull out the win against Owens. In 2010 with a real primary in place and with one year of Owens voting with Obama this will be a much more likely outcome. Dede will celebrate the successful vendetta with our (newfound?) friends on the left and will likely see a reward both from the MSM and the administration. After all the Owens race is the one bright spot in a dismal day for democrats.

Part of being willing to fight is to risk the chance of defeat, when that comes you take it like a man, so congratulations democrats, you have one more house seat.

Now Govern! Do it wisely because if you don’t I suspect you won’t be winning it a 2nd time in 2010.

Thanks to Doug Hoffman for his efforts in sparing us an Obama Democrat, for that if nothing else the party owes him.

Update: Maybe it’s just me, but as someone who objected to the MSM stalling on calling states that were clearly for Bush in 2000 I didn’t like that Drudge didn’t bother keeping the NY-23 stats updated because Hoffman was behind. It’s no less weaselly when it’s done for our side.

Update 2: National Review agrees with me:

If Hoffman decides to run in 2010, he will probably be running against a Bill Owens whose party has forced him to take tough votes on monstrous health-care, energy and card-check bills. This is still a Republican district. Plus, Hoffman won’t have to worry about zombie Scozzafava taking 5 percent of the vote.

The president and Pelsoi will not make it easy for him, there will be one path for re-election for him and he has already articulated it and may have been the difference in the race.

…their attempt to focus the race now on local issues is wise and important and their last hope, Doug Hoffman is a good candidate and will likely serve Ny-23 well but the primary duty of an elected representative is to well represent the interests of his district.

I have no doubt that Doug will be able to do this effectively, his willingness to get involved in this race when it would have been just as easy to step aside suggests it ,but there is a lot of grunt work involved in being a good rep. His background suggests he will be more than capable of it but he has to be sure that it takes at least an equal place next to opposition to Pelosi and the president’s disastrous positions.

If you are thinking of getting involved in a local race or even a congressional race due to your opposition to Pelosi et/al be aware that no matter how much tweaking and teasing is done about their workload the needs of constituents, both great and small are a big part of the job. From the city needing help to the Business trying to keep jobs to the individual with a government issue all of these are the tasks of a congressman or congresswoman. Be sure you are ready willing and able to do these jobs because if you don’t then all the right positions on issues won’t save you, you will lose re-election and deserve to do so.

Vote Hoffman