Last week I said after this next election if nothing changes it’s time to leave the GOP and go 3rd party. This weekend Sarah Palin while agreeing on the budget deal

The GOP establishment in Congress is our abuser. We can’t hide the black eyes any more. The whole neighborhood knows. The Democrats are gloating. Obama thanked Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)58%
effusively – and why shouldn’t he? Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)9%
couldn’t have given him more.

And where was the famed House Freedom Caucus – those stalwart conservatives who spearheaded Boehner’s ouster? They were shrugging and handing us a bag of frozen peas to put on our black eye. If we’re lucky, maybe they’ll call 911 for us when the beating starts up again.

This is shameful, and it has to end. No mas!

Makes the case against leaving the GOP

that’s what the GOP establishment wants us to do!

They want us to leave the Party or just sit out elections.

Without us around, their handpicked puppets can be elected in gerrymandered districts without any pesky conservative primary challengers.

The Congressional GOP establishment doesn’t care about winning national elections. As far as they’re concerned, Hillary can have the White House – just so long as they can keep their cushy jobs on Capitol Hill.

In fact, having a Democrat in the White House is probably good for business. They don’t want to have to lead on anything

Her solution make THEM leave

So, no, it’s not time to leave the GOP. We’re going to make our abusers leave.

I like the sentiment, but I’d still like to know how it’s going to be done, because as far as I can see the only way they are going to have a change of heart is if we have them by their privates and the only way that happens if is if their jobs are in danger.

And the best way for that to happen is to put safe seats in jeopardy, I submit and suggest that the only way to do that is a conservative 3rd party that can decide to endorse a GOP candidate if they choose the conservative path or to run our own candidate and let “safe” republican seats become not so safe anymore, after all the “cushy job” depends on that safe seat still being there.

I’m a huge fan of Sarah Palin and if she has a plan to achieve this within the GOP I’d be delighted to hear it.


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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

If you want to understand the difference between the GOP & Dems here it is:

Start with Nancy Pelosi on the spending bill from the Hill:

“We’ve had to sort of calibrate how we presented this to members because … we were afraid [Republicans] might pull things out if more Republicans knew about what was in the bill,”

You will note that Pelosi was afraid of what Republicans would do if they knew what they were voting for but that fear is nothing compared to their fear of their own base because when Bernie Sanders did this:

Bernie Sanders’ campaign on Friday sued the Democratic National Committee in federal court after the party organization withheld the campaign’s access to a crucial voter database.

The internal warfare exploded after the DNC cut off Sanders from the database and said the Vermont senator’s presidential campaign exploited a software error to improperly access confidential voter information collected by Hillary Clinton’s team.

and started a hashtag campaign #stormthednc the Democrats folded in under 24 hours:

Sanders’ campaign claimed that the DNC “capitulated” as a deadline neared for a court hearing on a request for an emergency injunction that the Sanders campaign sought after suing the DNC in federal court Friday afternoon.

Sanders’ lawsuit sought the “immediate restoration” of the campaign’s access to the database, arguing that the campaign would lose roughly $600,000 a day in donations without it. The campaign said in a statement that its access to the database should be restored by Saturday morning.

“We are extremely pleased that the DNC has reversed its outrageous decision to take Sen. Sanders’ data,” Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver said in a statement. “Clearly, they were very concerned about their prospects in court. Now what we need to restore confidence in the DNC’s ability to secure data is an independent audit that encompasses the DNC’s record this entire campaign.”


Meanwhile less that 24 hours after Paul Ryan & Mitch McConnell stick a huge finger in the eye of their own base provoking rush to say this.

“And now the Republicans have the largest number of seats in the House they’ve had in Congress since the Civil War. And it hasn’t made any difference at all. It is as though Nancy Pelosi is still running the House and Harry Reid is still running the Senate. “Betrayed” is not even the word here. What has happened here is worse than betrayal. Betrayal is pretty bad, but it’s worse than that. … [W]e don’t even need a Republican Party if they’re gonna do this. You know, just elect Democrats, disband the Republican Party, and let the Democrats run it, because that’s what’s happening anyway.”

Mitch McConnell says this:

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Friday warned Republican voters to steer clear of nominating Tea Party candidates who can’t win in next year’s general election.

“The way you have a good election year is to nominate people who can win,” he told reporters during his final Capitol Hill press conference of 2015.

I think Glenn Reynolds put it best


Now here is the question. It’s a given that the GOP is the party of guns, in fact as Reynolds put it when it comes to Guns:

it’s one of the relatively few areas where the GOP hasn’t sold its constituents down the river, probably because it knows that gun-rights folks are attentive and unforgiving.

Yet the GOP is not afraid of their heavily armed base, while the Democrats are terrified of a bunch of college kids who protest against fried chicken.

What is the difference, I think it’s Christianity.

The left has a party that is rejecting christianity in droves. When you have a party that is pretty much secular there is no moral restraint on any action so the ability to predict the actions of people you offend is limited. Anything could happen.

The GOP on the other hand & the gun rights folks are still highly Christian and restrained by the commandments of Christ. They have the traditional beliefs that Americans have had for decades and because of this it takes a long time to reach the breaking point:


There were decades of problems with England before the colonies finally rebelled and even so only a 1/3 of the supported it.

We paid off the Barbary pirates for years before finally deciding Enough!

Impressment went on for many years before War was declared on England

Ten years passed between the Alamo and the Mexican war

The slavery issue boiled for decades before Sumter, Europe fought for 3 years before America jumped into World War I and if Japan didn’t hit Pearl Harbor FDR would have had a hard time getting the US to declare war on the Nazi’s.

Even in modern times, the 1st gulf war took months before things started. Without September 11th there are no wars in Iraq or Afghanistan and even in Iraq it was a very long build up to war and votes in congress before the bombs started falling.


I think the GOP knows this and that’s why it’s willing to push the base so far. I’m very glad the well armed GOP base they keep poking is heavily Christian, because the moment it becomes less restrained by the demands of following Christ is when their actions will have fatal consequences for the country and the world.

But the party needs to remember one thing, in all the examples I gave above, it took a long time for the people to reach the breaking point, but in each case they eventually did and once you push an armed population past its breaking point, the result is not pretty.


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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

One of the things you might have noticed if you’ve watched any GOP candidate, not just for president but for any office is they always seem to campaign as the cowboy or the sheriff, standing strong and tall willing to protect the people from the bad guys and thieves. Reagan was often depicted as a “cowboy” thanks to his movie roles and the left often uses this as a derisive image to throw against them.

However looking at Paul Ryan’s budget deal I’ve come to the conclusion that while the GOP members of congress bring to mind westerns, they are not the characters they pretend to be at campaign time.

They’re not the Sheriff, protecting us from the bad guys, they’re not the deputies, either loyal or bumbling, they’re not the silent stranger coming to help out, they’re not even the reformed bad guy or the shamed citizen finally standing up.

No they remind me of the horses.

And not even the hero’s helpful horses like Silver for the Lone Ranger, Trigger for Roy Rogers or Cochise for John Wayne or Tornado for Zorro. No the GOP reminds me of a bunch of horses tied to a simple wooden hitching post in front of the saloon or in the livery stable.

The big donors, lobbyists, the media and to some degree the left are the owners of the stable. The GOP members of congress are watered and fed by them and occasionally rewarded. They are led to where said donors or leaders want them to go. They are tempted by the occasional carrot and threatened by the occasional stick if they dare defy either the leadership or the media, but most important of all the lobbyist who want to take the country somewhere in particular.

Now if you think of a Horse as a wild and free animal this might seem odd, but Washington is the place where horses are broken and once they are they stand at the hitching post and are generally fed and comfortable so they obey.

The only time they this changes is if there is a large enough fire, and that fire comes from the GOP voters and the occasional member like the Jeff Sessions, A Michelle Bachmann or a Ted Cruz or an outcry from the public.

You see the dirty little secret that the Horse breakers in Washington don’t want the horses to know is they are much stronger than the thin wooden hitching post they are tied to or even the stable stall they are locked in. Anyone who knows anything about horses knows this fact. A horse could break out of these constraints with little effort.

But like the smart horse trainers they are, the Washington Establishment teaches them submission. They come to believe they can’t knock down the stall or pull that simple hitching post right off the nails that hold them.

It isn’t until a fire that a horse is scared enough to break its bonds (sometimes not even then) as use the strength it has to escape and it’s the same result here. The consultants who are making their living off the candidates and the interests who pay them don’t want that kind of freedom for the horse, after all, how can you make it go where you want if it’s not broken.

That’s why the chamber of commerce lobbyists try to crush Tea Party Candidates, that’s why the media will demonize them beyond Islamic terrorists and that’s why the party leadership does what it does, after all what good is a horse to them that won’t go where it wants them to?

As far as I’m concerned this election is it. Either we are going to be broken by Washington or not. The Ryan budget demonstrates that the GOP will be a broken horse. There are only two ways this can be changed, either by leaving the Washington Stable (3rd party) or to get a GOP president willing to let the horses ride free (A Ted Cruz for example).

I’m sick of supporting a bunch of dumb animals, the question remains are the voters angry enough to agree?


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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

The Ryan Murray deal has now been out there for about two days and there are many different opinions on it.

Some think it’s a win for the GOP:

Though I, too, would like government to shrink, I think this is the right policy trade-off; shutdowns are making it harder and harder to talk about rational budget policy in this town. And tactically, I think this is a clear win for the Republican Party. The last thing they need right now is to take the focus off the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and revive Obama’s flagging poll numbers with an ill-timed budget battle. Their best shot at a budget they really like is, after all, to retake the Senate in 2014.

Some think it’s a disaster

I am old enough to remember when the GOP said not to worry about it caving on Obamacare funding because, by God, it would hold the line on sequestration.

Hell, that was a month ago.

Amazing how much can change in a month. Congressman Paul Ryan and Senator Patty Murray have decided to give up the last thing the GOP was fighting for — spending restraint. “Don’t worry,” Paul Ryan says with his boyish charm designed to induce sweats and heart palpitations among conservatives, “it’s only a little less restrained.”

The budget deal puts discretionary spending over $1 trillion, which is higher than the sequestration deal of 2011, which was at $967. This is, in fact, a spending increase.

It funds Obamacare.

It does not impact the national debt. It does not reform entitlements.

And it raises taxes, but with the more acceptable euphemism of “user fees”

And some who look at it pragmatically:

When I heard there was a budget deal, and that the deal didn’t amount to much, I had two thoughts. The first was, “Most conservatives probably aren’t going to like this; they’ll consider it just another case of weak Congressional Republican gruel and lack of Republican spine.” The second was, “Good. The Republicans weren’t going to win this battle anyway, and this deal will take away the Democrats’ most potent argument against them—the one that hurt them so much earlier this fall, the obstructionist argument—and allow Republicans to focus on the awfulness of Obamacare.”

The way I look at it is this: the best way to combat the Democrats is to win majorities in Congress next year, and to vote for people who are conservative enough to actually stick to their principles in the exceedingly tempting and corrupt atmosphere of Washington DC (no mean feat that, and it’s somewhat unpredictable who will stand firm and who will not). Republicans and/or conservatives can bluster all they want from a minority position, but it’s a weak position

All are valid opinions but as I see it there are three things for a conservative to judge this budget deal by:

1.  Are the military cuts due in sequestration so damaging that it’s worth making this deal to prevent them?

If you think the military can’t sustain these cuts or that they will go to the meat rather than the fat then this deal is a necessary move to stop it. 

If you think that this is simply not the case or that the military as well as the rest of the government need to live within its means then it’s a bad move.

2.  Is a short term deal, even one with tax (fee) increase worthwhile to achieve the political goals of depriving the media / democrats of an issue to use in 2014?

If you think the media would use a shutdown or even a continuing resolution continuing current funding would be used like a club to distract low information voters from Obamacare and the economy before the 2014 elections, it’s a smart move to made a deal that deprives them of it. 

If on the other hand you figure if the MSM doesn’t have an actual issue they will make one up anyway and this will cost us more votes in the base than it will win us or them in low information voters then it’s a waste of time to equivocate.

3.  Do you trust the GOP if successful in taking the senate in 2014 to actually advance meaningful budget restraint?

If you think the tactical move to make a deal will lead to a GOP congress that will make fiscal responsibility a priority and act accordingly then this is the right move, at times you have to regroup before you advance.

If however you have concluded that the GOP is more interested in getting chairmanships and the power of the purse than actually being responsible with it then it simply will not do to make this deal.

I think making a judgement on the budget deal based on these factors is smart.

Tomorrow I’ll give some advice on something concerning this bill that isn’t so smart.


Gandalf: Always remember, Frodo, the Ring is trying to get back to its master. It wants to be found.

The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring 2001

George H.W. Bush did that. He was hailed as a conciliator for a day, then savaged brutally by the same press until he lost the 1992 election.

Glenn Reynolds 2012

Shortly after their (deserved) victory lap in an election they had no business winning the media began reporting on upcoming “fiscal cliff”

The press is all full of the need for a deal to be made because of the disastrous consequences that will come on Jan 1st. They also urge the GOP to be “bi-partisan” in agreeing to such a deal.

While a large amount of the uninformed public might be nodding their heads in agreement to  anyone who pays attention and has access to any media that existed last year, this might be slightly confusing. Let’s elaborate

The Deal known as the Budget Control Act of 2011 passed the House with 269 votes out of 433 members available to vote that’s 62%. On the Democrat side 49.4% voted for and 49.4% voted against (the remaining 1.2% didn’t vote) On the Republican side 72% voted for and voted for and 27.3% voted against. On the House side it took tough negotiation and no little amount of arm twisting to win over enough conservative members of the GOP to score the 72% that voted for it, some Tea Party types like Allen West and Renne Ellmers took a lot of heat for voting for the deal while other notable Tea Party favorites like Ann Marie Buerkle of NY, Ron Paul of Texas and Michelle Bachmann of Minnesota defied the leadership of the speaker to get stronger cuts and were hit hard for it.

In the senate the vote was 74-26 With less pressure from the GOP to get everyone on board more conservative republicans were free to vote against a deal that didn’t have the cuts they wanted. The 19 Republicans who voted against read like a Who’s Who of the conservative movement in the Senate: Sessions & Shelby from Alabama, Rubio from Florida, Chambliss from Georgia, Coats of Indiana and Grassley of Iowa, from Kansas Moran & Roberts, Paul from Kentucky, Ayotte of New Hampshire, Coburn & Inhofe Of Oklahoma , Toomey of Pennsylvania, Demint & Graham of South Carolina , Hatch & Lee of Utah. As the New York Times said at the time:

It is also the reason that many conservative Republicans refused to vote for the agreement, calling it a grossly inadequate answer to a pressing problem.

“The current deal to raise the debt ceiling doesn’t stop us from going over the fiscal cliff,” Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, wrote Monday in an open letter explaining his opposition. “At best, it slows us from going over it at 80 m.p.h. to going over it at 60 m.p.h..”

But in the end, objections of Tea Party stalwarts not withstanding a bi-partisan bill gathering 88% of Democrats in the Senate and 49.4 in the house (50% of those who voted) along with 59.6% of Senate and 72% of House Republicans was sent to the president’s desk where it was signed.

President Obama said the following:

“It’s an important first step to ensuring that as a nation we live within our means, yet it also allows us to keep making key investments in things like education and research that lead to new jobs and assures that we’re not cutting too abruptly while the economy’s still fragile,” Obama said in a statement from the White House Rose Garden before signing the bill.

Harry Reid Said the following:

“There’s one winner throughout all of this and that’s the American people,”

And Tim Geithner had this to say:

“You’re going to see this basic underlying growth we’ve see in the United States improve over time because people will be more confident we can live within our means,” he said. “With more confidence we can get our arms around this long term. We will have more room to do the things we need to strengthen investment jobs now.”

So my question to the media is this: Harry Reid celebrated this agreement, Tim Geithner likes it, Nancy Pelosi voted for it and The President signed it. Yet now this deal is responsible for a fiscal cliff that is apparently a disaster for all America.

And moreover, the MSM is laying the blame for said potential “disaster” squarely at the feet of the same GOP who the very same media urged to make the in 2011.

Even more amazing this very same media is telling the very same GOP to make another deal, or ELSE face the consequences.

So to summarize:

Last year The Budget Control Act of 2011 was a bi-partisan success that Nancy Pelosi found voteworthy and Harry Reid, Tim Geithner and President Obama could rightly take credit for to media cheers

This Year that same deal is the cause of a fiscal cliff and if the GOP doesn’t do something to stop it they will be responsible for unless they give President Obama what he wants.

People might ask why a GOP that retained the house by a wide margin should have to make a deal, I think the better question is why is a deal that a mere 16th months ago was so worthy of votes and praise no longer is.

I think when the press asks GOP members to make such a deal they should remind them of bi-partisan nature of the existing law that drew their praise and ask why they are suggesting it is so horrible now?

As Glenn Reynolds linked and Dan Mitchell said: This is an IQ test for the GOP.  I hope they pass.

Update:   Let me take advantage of this Instalanche to announce the following:  Due to a family emergency “Under the Fedora” will not appear this week and posting will be light the rest of today.  My subscription video  commentary this week titled: Ralph Kiner and Sequestration will still go up this afternoon as well as the Teaser for non-subscribers.

Also due to said emergency there may be a delay of up to 24 hours before new subscribers and tip jar hitters get the passcode for the post containing the full version of the commentary.

…At least not this morning on MSNBC as the entire lineup acknowledges the tea party victory, the defeat of the progressives and the weakness of the president.

CNN reporting futures are up on the news of a deal but on MSNBC Mika and John Heilmann kept up the “terrorism” and “hostage taking” stuff.

Much funnier, the same people on the set who were calling the tea party names for forcing this deal called Harry Reid a “grown-up” for enforcing the deal first.

I still haven’t found the text of the deal yet but the misery of the MSM is a powerful incentive to support it. The PDF is here but that’s not the same as the bill itself, I want to see the language.

And Allahpundit, who usually gives me fits says this:

If he and McConnell join Reid in signing off on the deal tonight, the full weight of approving the deal will fall on Pelosi and the House Democrats tomorrow. That would leave liberals doubly screwed, not only stuck with a deal they hate but in danger of destroying the left’s relentless messaging that Republicans are the obstructionists here. For six months we’ve been told that those crazy wingnuts are willing to hit the debt ceiling and throw America into economic chaos to make their point; if Pelosi walks away 24 hours before the ceiling deadline after all three other congressional leaders have blessed the deal, that’ll blow up right in her face. I’m amazed, frankly, that Reid publicly approved the deal before she had a chance to talk to House Democrats. All that does is weaken her leverage in holding out and hand the GOP a talking point about how radical House liberals are even by the standards of Harry Reid. But maybe that was Reid’s point: By offering his approval early, he’s maximizing the odds that House Democrats will cave and that this thing really will pass.

Strangely enough on Morning Joe he says if he was a house democrat he would vote no. Somehow if the bill fails it’s the GOP’s fault for defeating it but it’s not up to Democrats to support their president and Harry Reid.

I’d have to say the tea party looked at my advice…

Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell

…and took it to heart.

Well done folks, well done indeed!

Update: I can’t believe I forgot to Mention Michael Steele, he was magnificent on MSNBC this morning and actually brought up that the spending anger among Republicans started under the Bush Administration (didn’t mention porkbusters by name) and more importantly he mentioned it before Mika and Heilmann so when it came up Joe Scarborough said Steele already addressed it.

If his performance was this good as GOP chairman he might still be the top man.

Looking at MSNBC this morning on the debt ceiling I can see that where this is and where it is going.

I slept in a bit this morning but caught the end of Morning Joe and the beginning of Chuck Todd’s show, they are opining on the dysfunction of the house of representatives because Boehner bill did not pass.

Excuse me?

The House has passed bill after bill, they passed a budget when the neither the Democratic House of the Senate under Harry Reid, they have sent these bills to the Senate but they have been a model of inaction. They passed Cut Cap and Balance which still sits on the table in the Senate today.

For the MSM it has been a heads you lose, tails you lose. If the GOP passes Boehner bill (and I thought it should pass) then the Senate would ignore it, and the story would be all about how the house can’t pass a bill that the senate could accept and intransigent GOP members.

If the GOP doesn’t pass the Boehner bill then it’s all about a dysfunctional house not passing anything in a crisis. (Somehow the 180+ democrats who wouldn’t vote for it hold no responsibility for this.)

Now lets look at the senate side. Reid has passed NOTHING, zip zero nada. There have been a lot of talk about this plan and that plan but there has been no bill, nothing brought to the floor, nothing with actual figures that people can vote on.

So what is actually going on? I’ll tell you, it’s Libya on the Potomac.
Continue reading “The Debt debate: Libya on the Potomac”

The NY Times hits on the secret of the New Republican Congress:

…some freshmen in both chambers say they worry more about changing the ways of Washington than about getting re-elected.

“Re-election is the farthest thing from my mind,” said Representative Tom Reed, a freshman Republican from upstate New York. “Like many of my colleagues in the freshman class, I came down here to get our fiscal house in order and take care of the threat to national security that we see in the federal debt. We came here not to have long careers. We came here to do something. We don’t care about re-election.”

It is not clear how genuine or widespread that sentiment is in Congress, but regardless, it has upended what President Obama said on Friday had been a “difficult but routine process” in past years.

This has not only upended the President, it has upended establishment Republicans. In the past when professional pols were elected, pols whose primary ambition was the acquisition of power, folks could count on ambition to trump principle.

This session however an inordinate amount of the new members are not career pols, their ambition is not to gain power but to solve problems. Like Cincinnatus they have come for a purpose and when that purpose is done they will return to the lives they have, and they HAVE lives to return to.

This was the dream and the ideal of the founders and a nightmare to those who want to leach off the system.

It is this that has driven the Tea party and it is this that has made them despised by both Democrats and establishment Republicans and makes them the last best hope for our country.