On September 16, 2016, Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts signed an executive order titled Establishing an Integrated Climate Change Strategy for the Commonwealth.  One of the main purposes of that executive order was:

To further position Massachusetts to meet the state’s environmental requirements under the Global Warming Solutions Act, the Executive Order directs the Department of Environmental Protection (MassDEP) to engage stakeholders, examine emission limits from a range of sectors, and outline a timeline to promulgate regulations to ensure the Commonwealth meets statewide carbon reduction targets. In addition, the Baker-Polito Administration will work with state and regional transportation leaders, and environment and energy agencies to outline additional steps necessary to develop regional policies to reduce transportation sector emissions. The work will be concurrent with efforts to continue to lead on reform of regional electric energy markets so that power generators can all compete to meet the state mandates for clean energy. The state will also complete a comprehensive energy plan that will enable forward-looking analysis of energy demands and strategies for meeting these demands that include conservation, energy efficiency and other demand-reduction resources.

With this executive order they are trying to reduce electric rates, along with combating climate change.  Is that particular executive order going to produce the desired results?  The answer to that question is a resounding no.  Clean energy plans of this type have been tried over and over again with negative results when it comes to making electricity cheaper. This article from Wattsupwiththat.com documents what the results would be when a North Carolina community called Morehead City builds a large solar array.

A 600-MW capacity coal, gas or nuclear plant operates 90-95% of the time. Its actual output will thus be 540 to 570 megawatts – from 300 acres (or less): 1.8 to 1.9 MW per acre, reliably and affordably.

Wilkinson would theoretically generate 74 MW from twice as much land. That’s 0.12 MW per acre – or 8.1 acres per MW. However, North Carolina averages only 213 sunny days per year, and perhaps 9 hours of good, electricity-generating sun per day.

Instead of 90-95% efficiency, Wilkinson would bring only 20% efficiency. The 288,120 panels would produce electricity only about 20% of the year. That is unpredictable, unreliable, less affordable energy…As Solar Mania and Solar Sprawl spread, electricity consumers would see their rates climb: from the 9 cents per kilowatt-hour average they now pay in North Carolina and Virginia, ever closer to the 16 to 18 cents per kWh that residents pay in “green energy” states like Connecticut, New York and California.

The increase in electric rates expected in this one attempt has occurred whenever green energy plants are built.  Here is a Financial Post article that documented a particularly disastrous attempt to go green in Ontario:

Consumers watched their electricity commodity costs doubled to 11 cents a kWh this year from 5.5 cents in 2006 — plus rising transmission and distribution costs — with more to come in future years. The average unit cost of electricity service rose at an annual nominal rate of 6.4 per cent.

Why do electric rates from green energy rise dramatically?  According to the same article:

Expensive wind and solar supply needs to be backed up by expensive new gas plants that in turn operate at a fraction of optimal capacity. The new capacity came at the wrong time of day or season, forcing curtailment in which producers were paid for electricity that wasn’t needed.

This American Thinker article explains in great detail the root causes of increased electric rates associated with green energy:

Without subsidies, and in locations with good wind or sunshine, the cost of producing wind or solar electricity is about seven cents per kilowatt-hour.  By coincidence, the cost is almost equal for the two technologies.  These technologies don’t require fuel.  Most of the cost is the amortization of the capital investment.  If an installation has a useful life of 20 years, the annual, amortized cost of the electricity produced is essentially the annual payment on a 20-year mortgage to finance the project.  Seven cents per kilowatt-hour is competitive with coal or nuclear and more expensive than natural gas.  But, unlike conventional generating plants, wind or solar produces erratic electricity, that comes and goes, depending on wind and sunshine.

Wind or solar plants cannot displace conventional plants because the conventional plants have to stay in place as backup plants to supply electricity when the erratic wind or solar is not producing electricity.  Although it is often claimed that wind or solar is replacing conventional generation, it only reduces the operating duty cycle of the conventional plants.  The backup plants are usually natural gas plants, because natural gas plants are agile and able to follow the rapid ups and downs of wind or solar better than other types.

The economic benefit of wind or solar is fuel savings in the backup plants when backup plant electricity is displaced by wind or solar electricity.  The cost of fuel for a natural gas plant is about two cents per kilowatt-hour.  The difference, the seven-cent cost of generating wind or solar electricity, less the two-cent benefit for fuel saved, is a five-cent-per-kilowatt-hour subsidy for wind or solar.

Solar arrays and wind farms keep getting built even though they greatly increase the cost of electricity.   There are two reasons for this.  The first being government mandates to fight the mythical monster known as catastrophic manmade climate change.  The second is lots of free money from the government.  There exists a 30 percent Federal Tax Credit for solar and wind farms from the Business Energy Tax Credit.  The State of Massachusetts is working on massive incentives for green energy.  These State Incentives are still in the works but here is here is a list of those that are expected.

What about the environmental costs associated with these green energy arrays?  The land for large solar arrays is stripped of all trees and bushes.  How much CO2 is absorbed by all of the vegetation that once existed there?  Isn’t combating global warming supposed to be about reducing CO2?  What about all of the animals displaced and runoff into streams and rivers from the clear cut land?  Environmentalists are strangely silent on all of this.

Photo is from the Boston Globe article -Tornado strikes in Webster and Dudley, destroying dreams among its damage – Taken by Craig F. Walker/Globe staff

On Saturday, August 4th, a tornado tore through the town of Webster Massachusetts, doing extensive damage to the town’s Main Street.  Two large buildings were damaged so bad they were torn down within hours and another two large buildings were so badly damaged they will be torn down in the very near future.  It is a miracle there were no deaths and only one minor injury.

Webster Massachusetts is my home town and the town I’m living in now.  My house, which only lies 500 yards from where the edge of the tornado made its closest pass, was raked by outflow winds that were about hurricane force.  Considering the tornado was 300 yards wide, it was a near miss.  Compared to the 45 individuals whose homes were destroyed and lost everything, I was extremely fortunate.

On August 9th, a United States congressional delegation, consisting of Senator Elizabeth Warren, Richard Neal, and Jim McGovern, held a closed door meeting with members of the town government and local emergency officials to discuss relief efforts.  After the meeting they met with the press.  The local TV stations broadcasted some of the press briefing.  In those clips the delegation did what every congressional delegation does, talk about recovery efforts and bringing in money to help rebuild.  The news broadcasts left out a large portion of what the three had to say.  I found this transcript of the full press briefing on Congressman Richard Neal’s Website.  This portion of the transcript angered me a great deal:

All three lawmakers further raised concerns about the number of tornadoes that have touched down in the state in recent years, arguing that the storms underscore the impacts of climate change.

“This is a reminder that climate change has real, tangible implications,” Warren said. “We’re watching more severe weather, we’re watching — over and over — these ‘never happened before events’ or ‘happens once every 100 years’ and now, they keep happening again and again and again. There are real costs to a changing climate.”

Warren added that such weather events are why the United States should be a leader on climate-related issues.

“This is not a time for us to turn our backs on the needs of creating a sustainable world for all of us,” she said.

It outraged me that the three of them, with Senator Warren as the chief spokesman, used the tragedy that happened in my town to push climate change.  It outraged me that our United States Senator would use this tragedy to blather on about nonsense that masquerades as scientific truth.  It took me only two Google searches and five minutes to completely discredit all of her claims.

As you can see from this National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration link, after peaking between 1990 and 2010, the number of tornadoes nationwide has decreased.   The past few years the number of tornadoes has been low.  The projected number of tornadoes for this year, based on the number through June, will be below average.

According to data from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, during June, there were 166 preliminary tornado reports. This is below the 1991-2010 average of 243 for the month. Tornadoes occurred throughout the month, with almost every day experiencing at least one tornado due to upper-level lows and fronts moving through the Great Plains and Midwest. However, there were no large-scale outbreaks and no tornado-related fatalities. For the year-to-date, there have been 596 preliminary tornado reports, below the average of 818. Depending on the final confirmation rate, the January-June tornado count could be the lowest since 2002 when there were just 468 tornadoes.

A lot has been made of the fact that three tornadoes in a short period touched down in Massachusetts.  Many newscasters have accompanied Senator Warren in speculating that this is proof of catastrophic man caused climate change.  This article in the Boston Globe, of all places, discredits these claims.

The tornado that tore through Webster and Dudley on Saturday was the third twister to hit Massachusetts within a 10-day stretch.

That may seem like an alarming statistic, but so far this year, tornado activity in the state is roughly in line with historical trends.

“This is really kind of typical actually,” said Bill Simpson, meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s bureau in Norton….On average, between two and three tornadoes hit Massachusetts annually, according to weather service records that date back to the 1950s.

Of course, the numbers fluctuate year to year.

“You can have years with none and then you can have years with six or eight tornadoes,” Simpson said.

This climate change hysteria is nothing more than an excuse to push socialism and a government takeover of more and more of our economy through overbearing regulations.  Windmills and solar installations are gigantic waste of money which require vast government subsidies.

****If you would like to help those in town who lost everything, please check out this link on the official Webster Town Website.

 

Since ancient time the peak of the summer has been referred to the dog days because of the star Sirius high in the sky and temperatures are high as well. This is a post about two separate events. First, of course, is the Lord Monckton event that we had here in Worcester at Peppercorns. Our event was well attended, our members were courteous and interested and informed on the topic, these are not my words but what Lord Monckton said to me himself.

Lord Monckton’s presentation focused on a mathematical proof that debunks the nightmare predictions of certain “scientists.” The attendees came away armed with an understanding that there is more hocus-pocus in the Global Warming Alarmist than there is at Worcester Astrology. It seems that the Global Warming Panic seems to have reached its Zenith as countries like Germany are beginning to step back from this craziness. But the contest of ideas is not over.

Afterwards we were tired to have libations at a local bar, and I was able to speak at length with Lord Monckton about the state of politics on both sides of the Atlantic. He is a very remarkable man, and we will try to work together in future as we know who the common enemy is and what their goals are and why they must be stopped. I encourage all of you to make every effort to see him if he comes to your part of the country.  I wish to thank Lord Monckton and all the members that worked to make the event a success and everyone who attended.

Second event I am reporting about is the Unite the Right Rally in Washington DC. Assorted white supremacists met in Washington and I am fairly pleased to report that only 30 choose to show up. One would think if they were a rising opinion that they would be able to bring hundreds if not f thousands to our Capital to express the passion that they feel for their delusional cause.

I am very concerned about the counter-protesters these people who try to describe themselves with the title Anti-fascist are Fascist. They are violent thugs with no respect for the rule of law or the conventions of civilized society. They are aided and excused by people in the Democrat party who should know and act better. Since they are picking on vile racists one may want to turn a blind eye to their assaults. But I don’t think that’s who we are as Americans or how is best to fix the problems racism has caused in our Republic.

Also troubling is the credentialed media’s reports; the drum beat leading up to this event. The instigation and provocation, the breathless anticipation as if the announcers are at NASCAR events cheering for crashes and hoping there would be much more mayhem and blood.

While all of these facts are troubling we should be proud that we have so many courageous men and women in law enforcement who are able to keep this event from getting out of hand. It seems we sometimes take for granted that when something of this nature, a riot is planned by hateful people that we still have a core of decent men and women who will confront and diffuse the situation and that’s something that we should never forget we’re so lucky.

Respectfully,
Matt O’Brien
President: Worcester Tea Party

On FaceBook

P.S.
The WTP is enjoying the privilege of posting here weekly because Pete knows how lucky we are to be Americans, and is a Hero of our Republic.
Please Support the work of the Worcester Tea Party.

The Worcester Tea Party is most famous for hosting Educational Events where we discuss topics of public interest. Most have been free due to the generosity of our members, but occasionally there must be a charge to cover expenses. Over the years we have heard from many famous people: Mark Fisher, Evan Falchuk, Professor Maurice Cunningham and Ed Lyons. We arranged to have Professor Charles Murray speak at Harvard University. For that event we partnered with the Greater Boston Tea Party, and the Harvard chapter of Young Americans for Liberty. I am very proud of that event as Prof Murray spoke without incident to a crowd of college students and Tea Party stalwarts.

The Worcester Tea Party, working with Camp Constitution and The Meat And Potatoes Show welcome Lord Monckton to talk to us about The Myth of Anthropogenic Climate Change. Lord Monckton is the internationally famous critic of the Global Warming/Climate Change hysteria. He will share his knowledge of the topic and his experiences as a target of the loonie lefts in his own entertaining style. This will be the hottest of topics in politics as the left use it to justify stealing more of your rights and their lust for power. It will not end with bans on plastic shopping bags and drinking straws.

This educational event takes place at Peppercorns Restaurant 455 Park Ave, Worcester, MA 01610 Thursday, Aug 9th, 2018 doors open at 7:00 PM. There is a full dinner buffet, and drinks will be available from the cash bar. Cost is $25.00 per person and seating is limited to 60 people. Cash and credit card payment will be accepted at the door.  Reserve now as seats are filling up.

To reserve your seat, or you have any questions about this event, or any questions about the Worcester Tea Party in general, please contact me by email at: matt@worcesterteaparty.com

Respectfully,
Matt O’Brien
President: Worcester Tea Party

On FaceBook

P.S.
The WTP is enjoying the privilege of posting here weekly because Pete is committed to education, and is a Hero of our Republic.
Please Support the work of the Worcester Tea Party.

Kanapou (Hawaii) in 2012. Cite.

by baldilocks

28 And God blessed them, and God said unto them, Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it: and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth.

— Genesis 1:28 (KJV)

Thinking about skipping the fish course after reading this. Forever.

Environmentalists expressed concern in October 2016 after a team of researchers from The Ocean Cleanup Foundation surveyed the vortex of trash piling up between California and Hawaii, spotting chunks of plastic glued together measuring more than a yard.

“[It’s a] ticking time bomb because the big stuff will crumble down to micro-plastics over the next few decades if we don’t act,” Boyan Slat, founder of Ocean Cleanup, a nonprofit that helps remove pollution from the world’s oceans, told Newser at the time.

The size of the trash pile has nearly doubled in size since then, containing at least 79,000 tons of plastic — “a figure four to sixteen times higher than previously reported,” Scientific Reports said.

Researchers gathered 1.2 million samples during a multi-vessel expedition in October 2017, exactly one year after their previous test.

They used large nets to scoop the debris and took several aerial images to examine the extent of the GPGP.

Large items such as bottles, ropes, plastic bags and buoys were the most common objects spotted in the pile. Fishing nets had an overwhelming presence, accounting for nearly half of the weight of debris picked up by research vessels.

Los Angeles and other municipalities may have had a point when they decided to “ban” plastic grocery bags. They’re not actually banned; one just has to pay for them, now. Reusable bags are now ubiquitous, if the doorknobs in my apartment are an indication, but I do use plastic bags as liners for my trash can. I’m rethinking this.

But what about bottled water? I do recycle every empty container, but what happens to them after that?

And though most Americans are consistent recyclers – optimistically speaking – what about citizens of other countries, the one to the south of us, for example?

For years, we have been inundated with propaganda about the alleged calamity of Global Warming/Climate Change – whatever it’s been called this decade – as if individuals or governments possessed the ability to do something about the weather.

Then, come to find out that an ocean containing a continent-sized trash heap is a true problem that human beings can fix, or, at least, try not to make worse. I’m not usually a collectivist, but this is a problem that all of humanity owns.

I look forward to our betters making a global issue out of this. For once, I would listen.

Juliette Akinyi Ochieng has been blogging since 2003 as baldilocks. Her older blog is here.  She published her first novel, Tale of the Tigers: Love is Not a Game in 2012.

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Needles, California last week

By John Ruberry

While I’m watching snow fall outdoors at Marathon Pundit world headquarters in Morton Grove, Illinois, the rest of my family is vacationing in southern California.

When they drove into California at Needles, just as the Joads did in The Grapes of Wrath, they were also greeted by more desert, as well as this 76 sign, which informs motorists that regular gasoline is selling for $3.79-a-gallon, more than a dollar above the national average.

Taxes are of course the reason and late last year the Tarnished State increased its gas taxes by 12 cents-a-gallon, to pay for road improvements.

California’s problems are vast. When the cost-of-living is figured in California suffers from the nation’s highest poverty rate. Modern day Joads are better off staying in Oklahoma. California’s roads are in bad shape because of onerous financial obligations in other parts of the budget. CalPERs, California’s public worker pension plan, is a sinkhole, so much so that Governor Jerry Brown is suggesting that pension benefits might be lowered–even for state workers currently paying into the program.

Another budget-buster is California’s high-speed rail project. Eight years ago voters approved the $40 billion project because government would pay for construction, which would make it “free.” Cost estimates for it have already climbed to $64 billion. If completed, and right now that might be stretch at best, it will run between San Francisco and Los Angeles. The relatively inexpensive segment where construction has begun, between Madera and Bakersfield, is already beset by delays, so much so that Victor Davis Hanson is musing that what little has been built could end up as nothing more than a modern Stonehenge. While the project is receiving federal funds, an increase of cash from Washington DC is not going to happen during the Trump presidency. So don’t count on a bailout, Californians.

Liberalism is expensive. And liberals love trains because, unlike cars and buses, they only go where there are tracks.

Moving up the Pacific Coast Highway into Oregon we learn that legislators are considering implementing an expensive cap-and-trade scheme that will punish large energy users, who are of course also large employers, in order to fight global warming. California has a cap-and-tax racket going already.  But there is some good news out of Oregon. Earlier this year, a new law took effect that allows drivers to fill up their own gas tanks–without an attendant. Of course some Oregonians freaked out, No, this was not an episode of Portlandia. Now only another coastal blue state, New Jersey, bans self-serve gas stations.

Blogger in Aberdeen, Washington

Heading north over the Columbia River into Washington, legislators in that blue state are debating a $10-a-ton carbon tax, one that a Democratic legislator who opposes it calls a “pretty sizable gas-tax increase.” Washington’s governor, Democrat Jay Inslee, who prefers a $20-a-ton tax, laughingly calls his plan a jobs creator.

The United States has much cheaper energy costs than Japan and most nations in Europe, which is one of the reasons, along with President Trump’s slashing of regulations–many of them involving energy–why the American economy is booming.

Does the West Coast want to be left behind as the rest of our nation enjoys prosperity? California, as it has been for decades for good and for ill, is already ahead of the curve.

John Ruberry regularly blogs at Marathon Pundit.

An additional caveat to assessments of a 2030 ‘emissions gap’ is  that most NDCs are formulated in terms of CO2-equivalent (CO2e)emissions, a composite metric of warming impact of different gases based on Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) from various IPCC reports. It is therefore impossible to assess precisely the 2030 emissions of CO2 itself that are compatible with these pledges without additional assumptions, because CO2e pledges could be attained through varying combinations of long-lived and short-lived forcer mitigation.

Emissions budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5° C Sept 18 2017

Last month I did a post on how the variance in computer model’s predictions on Hurricane paths despite decades of data and the finest computers and training available was a simple proof of the folly of relying on computer climate models dealing with “complex natural phenomena that involve multiple interacting processes” trying to predict events decades in the future.

You aren’t dealing with a single “complex natural phenomena that involve multiple interacting processes” you are dealing with EVERY complex natural phenomena that involve multiple interacting processes that exists on the earth. Every single additional item you add increases the variation of the data models. Furthermore you are also dealing with variations in the sun, variations in the orbits of the earth, its moon and more.

And that’s just the variations in natural phenomena, imagine the variation in industrial output on the entire planet for a period of 50 or 100 years.

Think of the computer modeling and tracking of that single hurricane and apply this thinking to the climate of the earth as a whole. How accurate that model is going to be over 100 years, 50 years, 25 years or even ten years?

Would you be willing to bet even your short term economic future on it, would anyone in their right mind do so?

That post got both a ton of attention and a ton of pushback by those insisting that I was comparing apples and oranges (hurricanes vs the planetary system) not realizing that my point was primarily about computer modeling and variations of data over a long period of time.

Well one month later the Independent (via insty) acquaints us with a new study that suggests global warming models “on the hot side”

the findings indicate the danger may not be as acute as was previously thought.

Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science at the University of Oxford and one of the study’s authors told The Times: “We haven’t seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models. We haven’t seen that in the observations.”

The original forecasts were based on twelve separate computer models made by universities and government institutes around the world, and were put together ten years ago, “so it’s not that surprising that it’s starting to divert a little bit from observations”, Professor Allen added.

Or in other words when you have actual data that decreases the variable involved suddenly the path to the goal of avoiding disaster seems easier.

Of course you won’t be surprised to hear that this change in data is being sold as a reason to move forward on draconian emissions control because we now have a chance to achieve temperature goals without actions that are: “incompatible with democracy” but take a look at the quote not from the news article but from the actual study that I lead this post with in which I highlight several key words in BOLD:

An additional caveat to assessments of a 2030 ‘emissions gap’ is  that most NDCs are formulated in terms of CO2-equivalent (CO2e)emissions, a composite metric of warming impact of different gases based on Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) from various IPCC reports. It is therefore impossible to assess precisely the 2030 emissions of CO2 itself that are compatible with these pledges without additional assumptions, because CO2e pledges could be attained through varying combinations of long-lived and short-lived forcer mitigation.

Or to put it in english:   We have no idea if we’re actually right because we are making assumptions from a range of potential figures from multiple reports (whose composites, metrics and assumptions are not detailed here) so we can’t actually say how much carbon we have to restrict to keep the planet down to our temperature goal without making guesses.

But we conclude you have to make giant adjustments to your economy and tax code, that coincidently favor connected interests that fund such studies

You’re going to base the economy of your state, your country your continent on THAT?

Read through that entire report, it has more weasel words than an end user agreement writ and as you do ponder this exchange from the classic Doctor Who episode the Aztecs:

Tlotoxl: A vision is with us, Autloc. When does it rain?
Autloc: This day. When the sun’s fire first touches the horizon to the west.
Tlotoxl: At that moment shall I present her to the people. A vision is with us and shall stand before them. And I, in supplication to the Rain God, shall offer human blood. The rains will come. No more talk against us that the gods were against us and brought drought to the land. The rains will come and power shall again be ours.
Autloc: I tell you the rains will come with or without sacrifice.
Tlotoxl: Does the High Priest of Knowledge only worship him who has fallen, and not him who has made us strong?
Autloc: I worship the same god as you.
Tlotoxl: Then above all, honour him. He has made us rulers of the land. For this he demands blood. And he shall have it.

and ask yourself if we are seeing the same scenario from our elite classes demanding a sacrifice to prevent a crisis that doesn’t exist in order to maintain their positions and wealth?


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by baldilocks

Consider this excerpt a preamble to a question.

There’s no question that Irma was and continues to be destructive. But there’s also no question that it was not nearly the storm it was predicted by all the experts to be.

Last week, there was talk of massive destruction across [Florida], with damage estimates ranging up to $200 billion. Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levin called it “a nuclear hurricane.” Storm tracks last week showed Irma remaining a Category 4 hurricane for a significant portion of its trek across Florida. When Irma shifted to the west as it approached, it was described as the “worst-case scenario” for the state.

However, when Irma made landfall in the U.S., it’s strength quickly diminished and the actual damages

to Florida in dollar terms will likely be 75% lower than predicted.

While those dire forecasts were being made, environmentalists and politicians were busy pinning the blame on global warming.

It was the same after Hurricane Harvey caused massive flooding in Houston. It’s the case whenever there is an adverse weather event. If there’s a drought, it’s because of “climate change.” If there’s flooding, climate change. Wild fires, climate change. Blizzards? Climate change.

So will environmentalists credit climate change for Irma’s unexpected turn for the better?

During the onslaught of Hurricane Harvey and as Irma was making its way through the Caribbean, this bit of Facebook logic was making the rounds.

So, here’s my question: if Donald Trump or some unseen actor can produce hurricanes and other types of weather phenomena at will, what’s all the climate change fuss about?

Yes, I’m joking. (Can’t be too careful these days.)

On a serious note, much of the Caribbean was devastated by Irma. Pray for them and take action, if you’re inclined to do so.

FURTHER SERIOUSNESS: The task set before Houstonians.

Juliette Akinyi Ochieng blogs at baldilocks. (Her older blog is located here.) Her first novel, Tale of the Tigers: Love is Not a Game, was published in 2012. Her second novel tentatively titled Arlen’s Harem, will be done one day soon! Follow her on Twitter and on Gab.ai.

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At that time some people who were present there told him about the Galileans whose blood Pilate had mingled with the blood of their sacrifices.  He said to them in reply, “Do you think that because these Galileans suffered in this way they were greater sinners than all other Galileans?  By no means! But I tell you, if you do not repent, you will all perish as they did!  Or those eighteen people who were killed when the tower at Siloam fell on them do you think they were more guilty than everyone else who lived in Jerusalem?  By no means! But I tell you, if you do not repent, you will all perish as they did!”

Luke 11:1-5

We interrupt our Robert Stacy McCain in Massachusetts blogging to note something concerning Hurricane Irma.

When last I brought up Irma it was to use the vast differences between the US and European computer models for Irma’s projected path three days out illustrate the absurdity of making economic policy based on computer models of climate 50 to 100  years out.

Since then several of my Magnificent Seven writers have given the subject, particularly those in Irma’s projected path, their full attention but while I’ve kept an interested eye on the path of the storm I’ve been too busy with my houseguest Robert Stacy McCain and the event we put on yesterday to write anything on the subject.

There has however been a development on the subject worth of interrupting of Stacy McCain in Massachusetts blogging (which will resume after this post) namely it’s shift in path:

 Hurricane Irma’s leading edges whipped palm trees and kicked up the surf as it spun toward Florida with 125 mph winds Saturday on a projected new track that could subject Tampa — not Miami — to the storm’s worst fury.

Tampa has not taken a direct hit from a major hurricane in nearly a century.

The westward swing away from Miami in the overnight forecast caught many people off guard along Florida’s Gulf coast and triggered an abrupt shift in storm preparations. A major round of evacuations was ordered in the Tampa area, and shelters there soon began filling up.

This story brings two points to mind the first scientific:

If you were looking at the various computer models I was mentioning plus a few others this change in path would be a massive surprise as the idea that Tampa might be the possible target wasn’t really on your radar.  This is why residents of Tampa Bay are now scrambling to get ready for the storm heading their way.

In my opinion this doesn’t poorly reflect on the State’s moves to evacuate people in the path, nor on those who produced the models as they were based on the best data available.  Furthermore hurricanes being “complex natural phenomena that involve multiple interacting processes” it’s always possible that there will be another shift so given the immediate danger it’s better to be safe than sorry.

However it DOES reinforce my point concerning making decades long range economic decisions over computer models forecasting 50 to 100 years out. It’s one thing to take a week long economic hit when life is in clear and visible danger, it’s quite another, to redirect hundreds of billions toward the well connected for an ephemeral threat three to five generations in the future based on computer models whose variables are astoundingly vast and the hysteria of individuals who are incredibly shallow.

But there is a second point to be made, a social one:

One of the more disgraceful things we’ve been seeing from our friends on the left has been the apparent glee that they’ve expressed at the imminent danger to those they blame for the results of the election.  Despite the left eschewing all things religious they’ve apparently bought into the idea that this is a sign of God’s wrath at trump voters ,ignoring the fact that the President got few votes from Cuba and Haiti and Puerto Rico where Irma has vented so far.

So imagine their dismay at the shift in Irma’s path given the voter data Hillsbourough County including Tampa Bay from election 2016 showing that Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump in Tampa Bay by nearly seven points!

Now to any properly catechized Christian the entire concept is offensive.  First of all Christ specifically warned about this type of misconception over and over again both in the quote from Luke above and in dealing with the man born blind (John Chapt 9), but more importantly for a Christian all of the people both those already affected by the storm and those potentially affected are souls of equal value before God and deserving our help and support during this time of need,  furthermore as a pluralistic society it is our obligation to help our fellow americans in this crisis no matter who they are.

But I am curious to hear how those who so confidently expressed their delight at the plight of trump voters handle mother nature’s apparent change of heart.  Isn’t Irma woke?  Has mother nature donned a MAGA hat?  Perhaps ANTIFA should declare her a fascist and the Southern Poverty Law Center will label her a white supremacist and put her on a watch list.  I can see the marches and hear the protest chants now:

Hey Hey, Ho Ho, Mother Nature has got to go!


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There are many reasons why one should not fall for the insanity of climate change panic, the unwillingness of those who claim it’s a crisis to act like it’s a crisis, the massive amounts of money spent to massage a particular answer and the simple question of who has benefited from the vast amounts of cash generated by grants and subsidies for those who are most deeply invested in this nonsense.

But for my money the best reason is illustrated by these paragraphs from this story on Tropical storm Irma (emphasis mine).

As of late Thursday morning, Irma was a category 2 storm packing sustained winds of 100 mph and was located more than 3,000 miles away from Florida. The storm is headed west toward the Leeward Islands.

U.S. and European computer models show Irma heading in different directions.

“The American models take it to the Carolinas by next Sunday (Sept. 10). The European models have it going to Cuba and possibly threatening South Florida,” News 6 meteorologist Troy Bridges said. “It’s just too early to tell.”

Now consider these words for a second.

At this moment our understanding of Hurricanes is more advanced that at any time in human history and our knowledge continues to grow.  Consider this bit from the Earth Sciences page of Carlton College about studying Hurricanes:

Why Study Hurricanes?

Hurricanes are life-threatening, building-flattening, property-flooding storms. They are complex natural phenomena that involve multiple interacting processes, offering real-world reasons to understand concepts such as air pressure and heat transfer. When a hurricane is occurring, the human connection to our planet is real and immediate: land, water, air, and life are all whirled about by these intense storms.

Like scientists, you’ll study hurricanes in satellite imagery and visualizations, and do some hands-on experiments. You’ll also explore over 150 years of storm data to find out when and where these storms occur. If you’re studying hurricanes during hurricane season, you’ll be able to monitor the position and status of storms in real time.

So when it comes to Hurricanes we have exact data that can be gleamed in real time of every aspect of a storm as it happens to add to the various computer models.  Additionally we have live data dating back to the mid 19th century that has been studied by experts in the field for a century and a half to tell us how hurricanes have acted in the past including information made by first hand observation by the most advanced instruments available at the time.

Furthermore the computers now being used are leaps and bounds over machines of just a decade or two ago and unlike the mid 19th century we many venues all over the world that are a source of training in this information and an even larger pool of potential meteorologists available to allow those tasked with making these predictions to choose the very best.

Yet even with all of this, two weather services each with all the advantages listed,  have 850 mile gap between where they think this storm will go over the next 72 hours.

Now as a person familiar with both mathematics and computer science, this variation is not odd, in fact it’s completely understandable. After all a computer model is based on the best possible guesses from the available data and hurricanes are “complex natural phenomena that involve multiple interacting processes” so there is nothing at all odd about there being a 850 mile variation as to where it will it.  As we get closer to Sunday and we have true data to input the variation in the models will correspondingly decrease.

Now apply this to climate change models telling us we face disaster in 100 years.

You aren’t dealing with a single “complex natural phenomena that involve multiple interacting processes” you are dealing with EVERY complex natural phenomena that involve multiple interacting processes that exists on the earth. Every single additional item you add increases the variation of the data models. Furthermore you are also dealing with variations in the sun, variations in the orbits of the earth, its moon and more.

And that’s just the variations in natural phenomena, imagine the variation in industrial output on the entire planet for a period of 50 or 100 years.

Think of the computer modeling and tracking of that single hurricane and apply this thinking to the climate of the earth as a whole. How accurate that model is going to be over 100 years, 50 years, 25 years or even ten years?

Would you be willing to bet even your short term economic future on it, would anyone in their right mind do so?

And as you are pondering the answer to that question consider the most important distinction between the NGO’s and Institutions pushing the “climate change” models and those advancing competing hurricane models.

Neither the Americans whose model says Irma will hit the Carolina nor the Europeans who claim it’s heading to Cuba have any financial incentive or social incentive to vary their models to conform with the other, which is why you don’t see the folks at the National Hurricane center point to their European counterparts calling them “Irma Deniers” or vice versa.

Update: Instalanche, thanks Steve, Hi folks take a look around not only at my work but the latest each week from DaTechGuy’s Magnificent Seven Writers:

Jerry Wilson (Thursday Evenings) Of Woody Woodpecker and Natural Disasters
JD Rucker (Thursday afternoons and Sunday Evenings) Letting DACA lapse would be the President’s best move so far
Fausta Wertz (Wednesday and Friday Afternoons) A Call or sanity in the Wake of Harvey
Juliette Akinyi Ochineg (Baldilocks) (Tuesday and Saturday evenings): Stinking Facts
Chris Harper (Tuesday afternoons): A Guide to “Offensive” Statues
Pat Austin: (Monday Afternoons) Report from Louisiana: Hurricane Harvey, the Cajun Navy and Biblical Floods
John (Marathon Pundit) Rubbery: (Sunday Afternoons): Chicago’s ruling class thrives amid city’s decline
RH (NG36B) (Saturday Afternoons): The Bishop’s Junk Mail
Zilla of the Resistance (Friday Evenings): #WarOnStatues: Catholic School Removes Jesus and Mary

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And Don’t miss our Part Time Riders either
Ellen Kolb (1st & 4th Wednesday Afternoons each month): Thoughts on a Torn Poster
Jon Fournier: (3rd Wednesday Afternoon each month) Why do the media insist on distorting the political spectrum?
Michigan Mick: (1st & 3rd Monday Evenings each month) Red Century story makes me see red
Tech Knight (2nd Wednesday Each Month) President Trump Six Months in


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Please consider subscribing, Not only does that get you my weekly podcast emailed to you before it appears either on the site or at the 405media which graciously carries it on a weekly basis but if you subscribe at any level I will send you an autographed copy of my new book from Imholt Press: Hail Mary the Perfect Protestant (and Catholic) Prayer


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