Yesterday I wrote about Nolan Ryan greatness in reference to Chris Sale’s 300 Strikeout season. Today it hit me that Ryan is a great example of the follies of convention wisdom. The subject deserves a little more elaboration.

Of all the outs a pitcher can produce a strikeout is the most valuable, in my opinion even more than a double play. A runner can score on a double play, but without an error by the catcher a runner can’t score on a third strike nor can a runner advance on a strikeout without trying to steal a base. With no outs and runners on a strikeout makes an inning ending double play possible and with one a strikeout means that you don’t have to play your infield in, risking a hit getting through.

Nolan Ryan struck out 5714 in his career, he is the ultimate strikeout pitcher in baseball history and to understand just how good he was consider this.

While Ryan struck out 300 men five times in the AL since the DH was adopted he also struck out 300 men the year before (1972) for a total of six 300+ strikeout seasons including one at age 43 (1990). As you do ponder those numbers consider that Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver, Roger Clemens, Gaylord Perry, Don Sutton, Bert Blyleven, Chuck Finley, David Cone, Frank Tanana, Mike Mussina, CC Sabathia, Jim Bunning, Greg Maddux, Phil Niekro, Ferguson Jenkins, John Smoltz, and Cy Flipping Young, all on the top 24 all time strikeout leader list, never managed to do it once.

But believe it or not there was a time when people actually argued if Ryan was a great pitcher, let alone a Hall of Fame caliber pitcher, consider this from The Bill James Baseball abstract’s 1985 edition:

I may get kicked out of the sabermathmatics union for saying this but it seems to me we’ve got to start taking Ryan a little more seriously as a great pitcher. He has had six straight winning seasons (through 1984), which I didn’t expect either, but anyways he is now about twenty wins better than the teams he has pitched for. That doesn’t break any records but it is comparable to man of the pitchers listed here.

Remember when this was written Ryan had already been in the majors 18 years, had already won a world series, won 231 games, held the MLB record for most no hitters with five (he would throw two more) and was already the all time strikeout leader with over 3800k’s. In fact if he had retired that year he would still hold the record for no hitters and would be currently 4th all time in strikeouts (behind Randy Johnson 4875, Clemens 4672 and Steve Carlton 4136).

Yet here was one of the best minds in baseball stating in print that calling Nolan Ryan a great pitcher was a controversial opinion at at the time to many it was.

Of course while the experts argued the fans who saw him pitch got it. I watched him pitch at Fenway once. Everyone in the stands knew we were in the presence of greatness. He pitched deep into the game leaving behind a collection of dumbfounded hitters before giving the game to his bullpen who would give up the lead and then the game to the Red Sox to the delight of the fans.

It wasn’t until he became the grand old man of baseball that people would eventually come around and recognize Ryan for the all time great that he was. The writers got when he was eligible for the hall of fame in 1999 98.8% of the voters had him on their ballots tied with Tom Seaver for the highest percentage of votes all time. Only Ken Griffey Jr’s 99.3% in 2016 would beat it.

If you told Baseball expect’s in 1984 that this would be the case they’d have laughed you out of the room.

Nolan Ryan career is the best example of one of my favorite sayings. Conventional Wisdom is always right, up until the moment it isn’t.

I suspect we’ll have a lot of use for both this example and this saying over the next 7 years.

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One of the favorite tactics of the MSM when trying to create conventional wisdom is to play the old “move the goalposts” game.

The basic idea being, if you can’t change reality, change what reality means, thus a defeat becomes a “moral victory” and a victory becomes empty because it is not of the correct size or shape.

Nothing personifies this better than the way the media treats Donald Trump.

From the first day of his campaign the media treated Donald Trump unseriously and he completely punked them and they have spent the last six months making confident pronouncements that have failed to come true.

Now that my guy Ted Cruz is leading in Iowa there is a new meme out there that was flogged on CNN today.

If Donald Trump doesn’t win Iowa, his campaign is finished.

Yes you heard that right, apparently according to the MSM et/al if Donald Trump doesn’t win the Iowa Caucus it proves that all the national polling means nothing and Trump is just a paper tiger signifying nothing.

Now it’s certainly a fair question to ask about the Trump “get out the vote” operation and given that a caucus is more time consuming than a primary it’s certainly possible that the voters who Trump is drawing who don’t normally get involved might be tougher to turn out for a caucus that involves a lot of time vs a primary where you vote and leave as normal.  These are legit questions worth reporting on.

But the “Trump must win Iowa or he’s finished” meme is nonsense and can be demonstrated as such by two  simple questions.  This is the first:

“If Jeb Bush fails to win Iowa is he finished and if not, why not?”

Now for anyone who knows anything about how the primary process works that question is pretty easy to answer but the answer to that question leads to a second one.

“Given that Jeb Bush doesn’t crack the top 3 in any early state while Donald Trump leads in most of them and has more money then Bush, why does a 2nd place finish for Trump in Iowa doom him but a 2nd place or worse finish for Bush or Kasich, or Christie is nothing for them to worry about?”

These questions are so damn obvious and follow the assertion concerning Trump and Iowa so naturally that one would think the MSM & GOP would be ashamed to make them but they assume you are too stupid to think of this.

But the MSM and the GOP have no shame, they just are a group of people running out of cards & memes to play so they are tossing anything they can against the wall in the hope something sticks.

Now as a Ted Cruz guy, I’m hoping Trump doesn’t win Iowa and given the brilliant campaign Ted Cruz is running those odds are looking better and better, but neither I nor Senator Cruz is foolish enough as to think if Ted Cruz wins Iowa Trump is finished.

If your candidate is foolish enough to believe that, then they don’t belong in this race or any other.


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I wish we could sell them another hill at the same price

General Nathanael Greene referring to the Battle of Bunker Hill 1775

Yesterday morning the cry went up again bout how the GOP is trying to make deals with democrats to foil their own caucus.

Republican leaders on Wednesday also considered changes that would mollify conservatives further, like setting Homeland Security funding to expire in mid February instead of March.

But Boehner may still need the help of Democrats to get his plan across the finish line, making the White House’s current position a positive sign that he could get his package through the House.

And the media & the GOP establishment keep insisting that a Government shutdown will cause all kinds of trouble for the GOP

All of this sounds very familiar:

CNN Oct 21 2013:

GOP, Boehner take shutdown hit in new CNN poll

“The midterm election is a year away. There’s plenty of time for Republicans to work on the brand, but they’ve taken a bit of a beating here. They’ve got some work to do. They need a bit of a makeover,” King said.

The Roosevelt Institute:


Yesterday the federal government shut down for the first time in two decades due, in part, to the GOP’s growing opposition to contraception. Republicans are intent on rolling back women’s rights, and this time they are holding the federal government hostage in an attempt to advance their agenda.


And when they weren’t complaining they were laughing

Aug 27 2014 Think Progress:


Seriously? Republicans Threaten ANOTHER Government Shutdown Over Obamacare!


And all that was before the election, an election that not only increased the GOP majority in the House but gave them a much larger majority in the senate than expected, yet we are still hearing this nonsense:

This GOP strategy is ideal for a party that has developed a reputation of not governing in the recent past. In October 2013, the House of Representatives and the Senate could not agree on an appropriations continuing resolution, or a bill to fund the government. This government shutdown was largely caused by conservatives who wished to defund or delay the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, also known as “Obamacare.”

This move was largely considered to be a total disaster for the GOP. Shutting down the government severely damaged the Republican brand.


Maybe if it’s just me but if I had the type of election after standing up to Obama & the Democrats by shutting down the Government that the GOP did I’d not be all that afraid of opposing them again.



The year is almost over but I’m still hoping to make enough from my own niche market to salvage 2014 but it will take $4500.

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This is the 9th of my series of Sarah Palin clips from CPAC 2014 & commentary upon them:

Day 1: The Crowd
Day 2: The Entrance
Day 3: Dr. Seuss
Day 4: Why Sarah Feels Good
Day 5: Playing Prevent
Day 6: Sinking Ships
Day 7: Flexibility Pens & Putin
Day 8: Anticipation

Nothing is more certain that the Democrats are in trouble as illustrated by the results of election in Florida 13.

Wherever you turn you hear about how that vote is a harbinger of doom for the left both because that was a district that Alex Sink won when running for Governor and because she, unlike  incumbents in congress never cast a vote for Obamacare.

But while this conventional wisdom has become a lock in the last seven days 10 days ago this wasn’t the case.

A lot of people are forgetting that the GOP candidate was written off by the establishment and all the buzz a few days before the election was about the GOP establishment laying the groundwork of blame for the defeat they were anticipating. It was going to be due to a bad team, a bad message, his unambiguous opposition to illegal immigration all contrary to the GOP mantra, look at this segment from MSNBC the day before:

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He won anyway.

That willingness of the establishment to play the Democrats game is exactly what Sarah Palin addressed here.

To be sure there were last minute issues & factors that helped in FL-13 but If Jolly had followed the establishment advice and ran farther away from his base, would the conventional wisdom be different today?

Sarah Palin knows that answer.

Oh for one hour of (Andrew) Jackson!

Reaction to President James Buchanan message on Secession 1860

Salim:  Okay. I want 50 percent of muchentuchen chain. Phantom & Salim Muchentuchen.
Phantom:  No.
Salim:  Twenty-five percent.
Phantom:  No.
Salim:  I want yogurt shop attached to store, like food court.
Phantom: Okay.
Salim:  I get profits from store.
Phantom:  No.
Salim:  Some profits.
Phantom:  No.
Salim:  I get free yogurt when I come to store.
Phantom:  Okay. Within reason.
Salim:  And I want some of your wives.
Phantom:  How many wives you want?
Salim:  Twenty.
Phantom:  No.
Salim: I sleep with one wife.
Phantom:  No.
Salim:  She give one pee-pee touch.
Phantom:  Okay.

You don’t Mess With the Zohan 2008

A lesson in propaganda and conventional wisdom.

13 Days ago Barack Obama was going to lead the United States into Syria.  They had Crossed his red line concerning Chemical Weapons and the full power of the United States was going to teach him the error of his ways with the British by his side

11 Days ago despite decision of the British not to fight Barack Obama was going to strike Syria and nothing was going to stop it.

8 Days ago the congress was going to vote with Barack Obama to authorize force in Syria as the leaders of the GOP Conference in the House and Harry Reid in the Senate were both going in his corner.

6  Days ago the French were behind the President’s plan to strike

4 days ago the President was non-committal on if he would strike without the congress

2 days ago the president was in a position to strike if he only had the senate voting with him

Last night the president after making the case that the US (which doesn’t do pin pricks) should strike Syria asked the congress to delay their votes on that strike in favor of a deal that allows Syria’s closest ally Russia to work out a plan that will eventually be presented to the to allow international control of his chemical weapons while Assad is resupplied with  conventional arms by that same Russia

And the media is describing this as a victory for the president?

Two weeks ago a victory the president was going to avenge hundreds of people including children with the help of allies to assert the US’ moral authority that nobody can use chemical weapons to slaughter civilians without paying for it.

Today a victory for that president is Assad the person he says is responsible for that attack is resupplied to continue to fight and win his war but Obama doesn’t have to face losing a war vote in the Democrat Senate or the GOP house.

Amazing how time can change even the simplest things

Closing thought here is that Zohan clip. Watch the reaction starting at 3:07.

Is not Salim Hamdi & Nasi dance of Joy not this president and the MSM celebrating his victory over the Putin the Phantom with an incredulous public looking on?

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I’m writing this at 3 AM as I’ve just returned from DC and will have video later in the day and will post interviews with the public that attended over the course of the next week or two.

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This week’s commentary is titled Hillary’s got what America Craves,

Here is a clip from the movie Idiocracy that this commentary is based on.

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Chancellor Durken: I will have to say: This morning, I was the leader of the universe as I know it. This afternoon, I’m only a voice in a chorus

Star Trek TNG First Contact 1991

Kay:  Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you’ll know tomorrow.

Men in Black 1997

You’ve got to love the conventional wisdom of the MSM, consider it was only seven days ago that according to our media betters:

1. Benghazi was a non story promulgated by Fox news

2. Anyone who said the IRS targeted the TeaParty was a conspiracy theorist

3. People who said Democrats wanted to confiscate guns were from the fringe of the NRA or wacko bloggers

Remember one week ago all of those things were conventional wisdom in every MSM and to suggest otherwise meant you were some kind of partisan nut to be ignored and ridiculed.

Something to think about next time you see the MSM or someone on twitter tweet that you can’t believe story X because it was on Fox, Breitbart, Rush or Drudge.


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As I start a new week and a new quest for the $300 I need to pay myself and as you decide to help me along or no, consider this: Where would all these stories be without conservative media and how much would the left pay to shut us all up?

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I remember in the waning days of the first term of the Obama administration the left through their primary organ of communication MSNBC decided that Grover Norquist was the root of all evil when it came to taxes.

The greatest success of this campaign came when Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss decided to renounce it:

Appearing on a local Georgia television station Wednesday evening, Senator Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) said that fixing America’s debt woes may require him breaking with anti-tax activist Grover Norquist‘s long-standing pledge, saying that “I care more about my country than I do about a 20-year-old pledge.”

It was a great day for the left, and the MSNBC crowd praised Chambliss and pooh poohed Norquist when he answered thus:

Norquist responded on CNN tonight, finding it odd that Chambliss would target him specifically when the Americans for Tax Reform pledge is a promise not to him, but to a politician’s constituents.

Norquist said Chambliss’ remarks were “confusing” because the pledge was not made on his behalf, but on the behalf of Chambliss’ own constitutents.

Norquist not withstanding the left continued to celebrate Chambliss’ After all they were in a no lose situation. If the GOP primaried him and he won that would simply strengthen the spine of those in the GOP willing to betray the voters consider revenues, if he was defeated in a primary, well I’ll let a commentator at Mediate explain:

This is wonderful! I look forward to the teabagger who primaries him and wins the nomination, a la O’Donnell/Mourdock, handing his seat over to the Democrats. Republicans don’t seem to realize how screwed they are after courting the crazies for short term political gains in 2010.

Edwin from NJ would have been less encouraged if he read Stacy McCain who said at the time:

Mark my word, the handwriting on the wall will become clear enough pretty soon and, by mid-2013 at the latest, Chambliss will announce that he will retire rather than seek re-election.

But the thoughts of a mere blogger (decades in journalism not withstanding) meant nothing to the real jounoalists like Mike Barnicle:

“Grover’s taken a big hit since the election, there’s no doubt about it,” Morning Joe’s Mike Barnicle said. “I’ve talked to a couple of United States Senators who said there’s at least 10 to 12 Republican senators who are willing to walk away from Grover Norquist on the tax pledge.”

and John Heilemann

“Sanity is contagious,”

And on Morning Joe they discussed Frank Bruni’s piece: Is Grover Over?

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As late as December you had posts at Morning Joe saying:

Sen. Saxby Chambliss, 69, isn’t afraid of anti-tax bogeyman Grover Norquist,

Chambliss was at worst going to lose a primary and give Dems a shot at an unreachable seat, and at best Chambliss wins a primary encouraging others in the GOP to spend spend spend! Yup MSNBC & the MSM has spoken anti-tax pledge was finished, the conventional wisdom had changed

…right up until the point when it had not:

Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss said Friday he will not seek a third term next year, expressing deep frustration with Washington gridlock that he doesn’t see changing in a divided government.

…deep frustration with Washington Gridlock? Funny just two months ago the Washington Gridlock wasn’t frustrating enough for him to keep him from seeking re-election.

Let this an object lesson to every member of the GOP caucus living inside the media bubble. Reports of both Grover Norquist and the Tea Party’s political demise have been greatly exaggerated…reports of Saxby Chambliss’ political demise have not.

The media will no doubt spin this as an indictment of gridlock and bemoan Sen Chambliss departure in the same way they did Olympia Snowe. As for the hoped for victory in GA I regret to inform Edwin from NJ that GA is not Maine.

John Heileman was right. Saxby Chambliss IS contagious and members of the GOP who catch this disease are likely to suffer the same political fate.

Update: The most hilarious piece on this story comes from the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s “Political Insider” piece that in 777 words on Chambliss’ decision doesn’t mention his flip flop on the Norquist at all.

Move on nothing to see here

Extremely old conventional wisdom: Herman Cain is fringe candidate

Item: Herman Cain wins Fox debate in May


Very old conventional wisdom: Herman Cain may have won one debate but can’t compete against the A list candidates.

Item: Herman Cain wins Florida Straw Poll


Old Conventional wisdom: Herman Cain does good in debates and straw polls but it’s a protest vote

Item: Cain drives the debate at Dartmouth College


Yesterday’s Conventional wisdom: Herman Cain is a good man but his plan can’t stand up under the MSM spotlight

Item: Herman Cain rolls David Gregory on Meet the Press


This morning’s conventional wisdom: Herman Cain is up in the polls now but isn’t electable

Item:  Rasmussen: Cain 43, Obama 41


Tomorrow’s Conventional wisdom who knows,  but here is where it’s heading:

Conventional wisdom Nov 7th 2012: Herman Cain may have won the White House but his choice for Ambassador to Vanutau stinks.

For reasons I don’t quite understand I found myself extremely tired yesterday and crashed at about 5 p.m. I woke up to two pieces of news spelling disaster for the Democratic Party and President Obama.

The first being NY-9. Both the Washington Post and the New York Times report that Bob Turner has won election in NY-9 the first time a republican has accomplished this feat since Woodrow Wilson was in the White House.

First the post:

With the outcome of his own reelection effort 14 difficult months away, President Obama suffered a sharp rebuke Tuesday when voters in New York elected a conservative Republican to represent a Democratic district that has not been in GOP hands since the 1920s.

And it wasn’t lost from lack of effort

National Democrats poured more than $500,000 into a last-ditch effort to save the seat and deployed former president Bill Clinton and Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) to try to mobilize voters.

But in the end they could not overcome the power of the surfing Rabbi, at least that’s what the the democrats are claiming according to the NY Times

Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida, the chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, said the district’s large concentration of Orthodox Jews made it unusual and meant the race had few national ramifications.

“In this district, there is a large number of people who went to the polls tonight who didn’t support the president to begin with and don’t support Democrats — and it’s nothing more than that,” she said in a telephone interview.

Yup people in this district oppose democrats so much that they rejected this very same GOP candidate last year by a 20 point margin and last elected a republican when the Ford Model T was still in production. The Post doesn’t mince words:

Democrats worry that the apparent drag that the president had on Weprin could be repeated and amplified nationwide during the 2012 elections.

“Make no mistake about it, the albatross around Weprin’s neck is named Obama, and Democrats who value honesty will tell you privately that the president’s 37 percent approval rating in the district is making it difficult for Weprin to win a race that in almost any other time would be a slam-dunk,” Stuart Rothenberg, an independent analyst and editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, wrote Tuesday.

It’s interesting to note the Times mentions Weprin’s vote to redefine marriage as a factor as well. I wonder if that will be lost on democrats in the state come 2012?

Meanwhile out west in a race Democrats once thought was winnable, the party came face to face with reality:

In Nevada’s 2nd District, the GOP used an aggressive strategy to lock it up for their candidate, former state Sen. Mark Amodei, as early as possible – to the point that national Democrats, once bullish on their chances there, never played in the contest and now deny they ever intended to.

Well of course they lost, this is a REPUBLICAN district, that means nothing. It’s not like the democrats didn’t poll well in their strongholds…

Even in Clark County, the liberal-leaning area in the district’s southeast corner that borders Las Vegas, Amodei, a former state lawmaker, took Marshall by 23 points.

Marshall did slightly better in Washoe County, which includes Reno, losing by only 10 points with 88 percent of votes there counted. That figure was a rare silver lining for Obama, who lost the second district but won Washoe in 2008 and will need to compete there in 2012 if he wants to take the crucial swing state.

Coming a few days after his big jobs speech and a day after his bill was submitted to congress it will be tough for the MSNBC/Morning Joe crowd, who live by the Times and Post, to spin these results as anything other than a rebuke to the president, particularly NY-9 where the same GOP candidate lost in 2010 by 20 points.

Remember none of this would be possible without the Anthony Weinernon-story“.

However the Democrats and the cocktail party left have not given up hope. They’ve found a person to reverse their 2012 fortunes in the form of…..Elizabeth Warren?

Consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren will formally launch her U.S. Senate candidacy in Massachusetts Wednesday morning, her campaign confirmed to POLITICO Tuesday.

Warren has been testing the waters with a listening tour over the last month and will release a video shot last week to kick start her bid against freshman Republican Sen. Scott Brown.

Liberal commentators at the Politico are ecstatic as are those at Talking Points memo Balloon Juice, the Huffington Post. Perhaps they might be less orgasmic if they read the first sentence in the Washington Post story concerning her candidacy: (emphasis mine)

Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard professor and former Obama administration official who became a hero to liberals with her sharp critique of the nation’s financial institutions, will announce Wednesday that she is challenging Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts for his seat in 2012.

A former Obama administration official is running against Scott Brown and democrats are optimistic? I can’t think of anything more politically tone-deaf the day after the most significant electoral rebuke to the president since the 2010 midterms.

And make no mistake, there is nothing more likely to get Tea Party activists who were unhappy with Scott Brown more fired up than nominating a former Obama administration official to oppose him.

On August 5th, 60 days after experts at the NYT scoffed at the GOP’s chances, this blog noted that candidate Weprin refused to publicly back president Obama’s reelection. I repeat the words I wrote then:

I don’t know what it tells you but I know what it tells me:

Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell!

Guys if you are nervous about 2012 it’s only because you haven’t been paying attention.

If I’m the GOP I would ask every democratic candidate on the state or federal level on Camera the following question:

“Do you support the re-election of President Obama and if so what will you do to aid his campaign?”

The answers should be priceless.

Update: Minor edits made, after all I wrote it at 3 a.m.

Update 2: Inserted a missing link

Update 3: The Lonely Conservative and Doug Ross link, thanks, and Mayor Bloomberg shows why he is the Democrats favorite Republican:

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg dismissed the suggestion the outcome has national implications.

No wonder Rinos kept talking him up as a presidential candidate