As I watched the Democrat Debate last week, or as I should more accurately say flipped from back and forth from the Dem debate and Hogan’s Heroes Reruns because there is only so much socialism and Rachel Maddow a person can take, I found myself fascinated by the predicament that Hillary Clinton finds herself in concerning Senator Sanders.

What’s fascinating about it is that it’s the mirror image of the problem the GOP has and it comes from similar roots.

For decades the left has spent its time rejecting traditional judeo christianity and the values that come with it. The concept of respect for God, a moral order, the value of work and self reliance and have imbued these values into the culture and educational system to the point where any person who does not have every comfort they have dreamed of is considered oppressed and every person who has succeeded is an oppressor.

And while this fits perfectly with the philosophy of a lifetime socialist who honeymoons in the Soviet Union during the cold war and a president that believes that the United States is the primary source of evil in the universe if one has spent a lifetime with a goal of power and wealth and has said, done and chased whatever is popular enough to gain it, let’s call such a person, oh, Hillary Clinton, suddenly finds herself with a record that diametrically opposes all of the things that they have conditioned their supporters to believe.

Thus the Clintons and the DNC who invested their souls into their family rather than rejecting them when given the moral choice decades ago find themselves scrambling in an age of relative morality to paint themselves as acceptable to those they have conditioned to believe in relative ever changing standards, with the full knowledge that the it may not be enough to allow them to keep the power and the wealth it generates.

Oddly enough this is almost the mirror image of what has been going on in the GOP with conservatives.

Because as the Democrats rapidly became an unwelcome place for people of faith and those who honored the traditional Judeo Christian American culture the GOP by default began to pick up such people.

Meanwhile The GOP which once thanks to the vast wealth the Civil war created, had morphed into a party favoring business & elites while losing the favor of the masses as those who fought under the union banner & their children died, suddenly founds themselves transformed by the influx of people of faith and traditional American Culture once again a party of the masses.

The only problem was while they loved getting those votes and the power that being elected gave them, those same GOP elites didn’t love the masses that gave said votes to them.

So began the regular cycle of GOP candidates that every election year promised to govern as conservative traditional Americans but cut and ran from those positions as soon as they were over.

Now given that the choice for voters is one party or the other, the Obama years have given the GOP the default victory in off year elections but as Mark Steyn warned not acting after such a victory is a recipe for disaster for them.

Thus, with their establishment candidates faltering forced to choose between wildcard Donald Trump and 98% conservative Marco Rubio in order to stop 100% conservative Ted Cruz who has made his campaign about actually doing what the GOP keeps claiming it will.

All of this both on the Democrat side and the GOP side comes from the same source, the desire to gain power for personal advancement and disdain for the people who grant them said power.

You would think it wasn’t a question of two different parties, might one. In fact one might even call it a cartel.


The good news is that both my face and web traffic have recovered. January 2016 marks the 4th straight month of recovery and the doldrums of 2014 & early 2015 seem completely behind.

The bad news is DaTipjar has not recovered to 2013 levels yet. With a $62 a day avg goal as of Jan 30th we’re reached where I hoped we’d be January 7th, just over 25%.

Given where the economy is rather than where the MSM pretends it is and that it is January both are understandable and to those who have kicked in (particularly subscribers), thanks much.

If however you have not & are both able and inclined I’d really appreciate it if you’d help us either close January strong or start February stronger by hitting DaTipJar.

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As of this moment the only think we know for sure about Iowa is the fact that hotel room prices are about to drop like a rock.

As I will be at work with no access to a radio or the net my first knowledge of the results in Iowa will, unless I take my laptop with me as I have no smartphone, either at 7 AM or what people with smartphones tell me during breaks.

It’s my opinion that Ted Cruz will put it out, that the turnout thanks to the storm will not grow as much and his ground game will make the difference. It’s also my opinion that not enough people will choose to vote strategically (although it’s the pragmatic thing to do) to turn the Donald Trump events into victory.

It’s also my opinion that Sanders wins simply because to the young Sanders voter the caucus itself is like a Trump event & they’ll so because it’s an event, plus there is enough fear in Hillary voters to make the difference.

But even if I’m wrong and it’s Trump Cruz vs Cruz Trump what’s next? Since I’m obliged to write thing before I have any clue what has actually happened here is what I think:

If TED CRUZ wins by a lot:

An unlikely scenario, but if it happens it will make a huge difference in NH guaranteeing him top 3. This will require cause a bloodbath in NH as the big three establishment candidates plus Rubio fight for their lives. Jeb Bush may decide to back out of NH all together and decide to go all in for SC in order to retain the donor class. But it also becomes last stand for Kasich and Christie, particularly if Rubio finishes a strong 3rd.

It also means that Ted Cruz’s already formidable ground & money advantage increases greatly

As far as the Establishment goes a big Ted Cruz win means decision time. It’s all in to stop him, but to who, Trump, Rubio or Bush? If the Cruz win comes with a Trump collapse then suddenly the the old rules apply again and Bush rises from the grave as Stacy McCain fears.

If TED CRUZ wins by a little (my best guess):

Then all the conventional wisdom that the pundits have talked about continues, Trump in this case likely does well enough to ensure a NH win (unless he collapses then Rubio become the Stop Ted Establishment fan.

All the Ted Cruz wins by a lot scenario’s above apply to a lesser degree including the panic. It also gives the GOP establishment a little time to put off their decision as to what to do.

If Trump comes a close second expect him to be like the US Army after Kasserine, someone who learns a lot from an initial defeat. He will go after Cruz like there is no tomorrow.

If Donald Trump wins by a little

Then NH is his, Cruz might settle to 3rd or 4th there and it sets him up well for continued success. In one respect a close win is best for Trump as it confers the victory he needs with the lessons that a close call can teach.

Cruz will be pilloried by the MSM for losing in this case in an attempt to write him off (it will fail) and it might tempt some campaigns that should end to continue at least to NH or SC) It will also give new hope to Christie and Carson and be a boon to Rubio. If somehow Rubio finishes 2nd to Trump (very unlikely) then he will become the defacto GOP Trump alternative

If Donald Trump wins by a lot

The whole game is blown up. NH is his, Nevada is likely his and the Bush SC plan is in deep trouble. Ted Cruz holds on in the south & will need to rally there. NH becomes a fight for 2nd place but the GOP establishment might just decide that they had better hit the Trump Bandwagon NOW rather than later, unless Rubio comes 2nd & then they might decide to go that way.

It’s possible that this helps Bush the most since with Cruz disposed of he has the biggest donor network to actually compete.

This is the only Scenario where I see either Huckabee or Santorum getting to NH

Final thought: If any candidate other than Trump, Cruz or Rubio finish in the top 3 THAT becomes the subhead in the GOP no matter what the result. If it’s an establishment guy NH goes completely insane.

Note: If suggestions that Carson is thinking of dropping that have just been reported, all bets are off.


If Bernie Sanders wins by a lot:
The Trump explosion squared. DNC panic and the Biden & Bloomberg stuff goes into overdrive. Both the “stop Bernie” and the “Replace Hillary NOW!” plans go into full swing and the Clintons find themselves fighting for their political lives. At this point the black community will have to choose a side. The Clintons will tell them to name their price and pay it, but they might just see what the Replace Hillary Now and Bernie camps might offer for their support.

It’s possible that the Obama administration and the Clinton’s go into mutually assured destruction mode. That all depends on what threats get made by the Clinton’s or the Administration in an attempt to either force them to back her or pressure her to leave. MSN in full panic mode.

If Bernie Sanders wins by a little (my best guess)

The slow Clinton bleed continues and all the tough decisions that a big Bernie win would force are delayed. Again Clinton appeals to the minority community to be her firewall post NH but minor defections continue. The DNC decides to sweat it out for NH in the hopes that Hillary can recover post NH. The whispers of indictment continue but aren’t enough to go anywhere yet. It’s all wait and see.

If Hillary wins by a little.

Most of the DNC panic dissipates, suddenly Biden & Bloomberg are silent. Nothing from Justice but the infighting in the FBI over the rule of law continues but is suppressed by Obama. In many ways this is the optimum result for the left because it solves problems without forcing their hand totally. The one danger for the DNC is if there is any sign of a “dirty tricks”, then the Democrat activist revolt will make Chicago 1968 look like a Victorian Picnic.

If Hillary wins by a lot:

It’s all over, no indictments, Justice covers for her and the FBI is caught between outrage and resignation. The press goes all in to cover for her and turns all it’s attention to destroying Trump or Cruz.

Final thought. The MSM goal is to advance whatever scenario helps elect Hillary to the White House and destroys first Ted Cruz than the GOP. If you keep that in mind in the coverage of Iowa over the next 24 hours, then you will not be surprised.

(Fyi the GOP goal is to destroy Ted Cruz so in that half of the coverage they and the MSM will be working together.