King Henry VIII: (to prints Edward) Listen and remember. There is only one crown in England. But there are many heads it will fit. So a wise king removes those heads. That is politics.
The Prince and the Pauper 1937
Julius Caesar:Forgive the intrusion. You know I’m not in the habit of coming into your house uninvited. Gracchus:You’ve always been welcome here… Julius Caesar:as a pupil. [guards become visible] Gracchus:You’re not alone. Julius Caesar:No. Gracchus:This time you’ve come to teach.
Hillary Clinton’s family’s charities are refiling at least five annual tax returns after a Reuters review found errors in how they reported donations from governments, and said they may audit other Clinton Foundation returns in case of other errors.
The foundation and its list of donors have been under intense scrutiny in recent weeks. Republican critics say the foundation makes Clinton, who is seeking the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016, vulnerable to undue influence. Her campaign team calls these claims “absurd conspiracy theories.”
The article, in January 2013, detailed how the Russian atomic energy agency, Rosatom, had taken over a Canadian company with uranium-mining stakes stretching from Central Asia to the American West. The deal made Rosatom one of the world’s largest uranium producers and brought Mr. Putin closer to his goal of controlling much of the global uranium supply chain.
But the untold story behind that story is one that involves not just the Russian president, but also a former American president and a woman who would like to be the next one.
The reaction was less about the concept of the Clinton’s doing something corrupt (surprise surprise) as the concept of the NYT and the Washington Post bothering to report on it.
Now part of the reason involves something that I spoke about a full year ago concerning Democrats who want to be president their staffs.
These people, those who support their potential campaigns or those who would benefit from either their campaigns or some other candidate that we are not aware of at this time would have an incentive to bring things like this forward.
And unlike any GOP candidate these people have relationships with members of the MSM who will be happy to do a favor for a friend and get something like this before the general public and then use it as proof of their lack of bias vs the GOP.
But there is a second part, much more important that has been obvious to anyone watching the MSM over the last year.
I submit and suggest the media don’t believe she can win.
Take a look at the GOP field, in addition to a bench deeper than the Celtic & Yankees of old you have diversity of race, gender, opinion, geography and age, Governors, Senators and members of the private sector who are young, dynamic and not shy about touting actual accomplishments.
We keep hearing from the press not why Hillary should be president (other than the chromosome combination she was born with) but why issue X Y or Z won’t hurt her.
And unlike the black community tends to vote monolithic women do not. The Democrats have an advantage with single woman with married women the GOP has the lead.
Nor does the elderly Hillary produce the same excitement among youth that Obama did, and her lie concerning multiple devices, if taken at her world makes her look like the Grandma she is.
It will not take much effort for a GOP candidate other than Jeb Bush to excite the public (which is why the MSM keeps pushing him).
The media are liberals first and Hillary fans 2nd. They understand that the rise of streaming technology means their power and influence are on the wane as the low info voter’s choices increase. They dropped her for Obama like a rock once it became clear she was losing in 2008 and are terrified of a GOP victory in 2016 that combined with control of the congress could mean a fundamental shift of power.
The MSM will do all they can to prevent this from happening.
The moment they can get a viable candidate in they will throw Hillary under the bus so fast it will make your head swim.
But if they can’t, If worst comes to worst they’ll fight for Hillary in what will be a campaign so dirty even people as jaded as me will be surprised.
It goes without saying that the MSM would not consider hitting DaTipJar an example of noblesse oblige but if you want journalism that doesn’t come from that swarm mentality she belongs to I would ask you to hit DaTipJar and help me pay for it.
My goal is Twenty grand a year
That gets all the bills paid. If I can get to Forty Thousand I can afford to travel outside of New England and/or hire me a blogger to help me get it done.
Consider Subscribing 100 Subscribers at $20 a month will get the job done.
As everyone knows I supported first Karen Testerman and then Bob Smith for the GOP Senate in NH furthermore I argued that nominating Scott Brown might cause 2A and pro-life people to stay home.
However not only did Scott Brown win the primary but he’s run an excellent campaign overall. Combine this with a poor campaign by Shaheen, and the record of president Obama on Ebola & ISIS and viola Senator Brown has a real chance to take that seat.
In one respect win or lose Brown has already done a huge service for the GOP. When the election season began nobody was picking NH as a state the GOP could flip. Thanks to a strong well-financed campaign by Brown the left has spent an inordinate amount of 3rd party/national money resources defending New Hampshire that they could have spent in Louisiana, or Alaska, or North Dakota, or Colorado, or Arkansas, or Iowa, or North Carolina or Montana or Virginia or in the Florida Governor Race etc etc etc.
Taking money from the left is good, but winning the Senate is better and now the Tea Party and Conservatives in New Hampshire have a chance to not only spike the ball providing a final service for conservatives running nationwide.
Until election day an election is like a marketing campaign, but on election day it’s like a battle where morale is critical. As New Hampshire is one of the eastern states it will be reporting earlier than many other states.
If the Democrats media allies can project a victory in New Hampshire fairly early it will keep up the morale of liberals farther west where pols are still open who will be working as hard as they can to hold senate and house seats. It will provide a narrative that will make it easier for Democrat talking heads to keep the troops fighting till the last poll closes.
But picture if by 9 or 10 PM New Hampshire is still in doubt, or better yet imagine if the networks find themselves calling the state for Brown.
Picture the analysts on MSNBC trying to spin a Brown victory as not a fatal disaster for Democrats, picture them trying to give hope to their party faithful farther west, that a loss in NH doesn’t mean the Senate is going GOP bigtime while wearing drawn faces. Even a race that can’t be called will have a depressing effect.
Such a blow could be critical, if the left decides there simply isn’t hope how many may choose to give up? How many will go home, stop working, vote for a green or 3rd party liberal or even to not bother to vote figuring they can’t make a difference. Picture what that will mean not just in Senate & House races but up and down the ticket for the GOP.
While Senator Brown is not the ideal candidate to many conservatives aiding a victory by him on Tuesday might in NH might make the difference between winning and losing for stronger House and Senate conservatives across the nation.
So I urge you , if you are a New Hampshire Tea Party voter, a second amendment defender or even like me, a strong pro-life voter and considered staying home or even voting 3rd party reconsider, because choosing to elect Scott Brown may do more for your cause than you can possibly imagine.
The latest in our series of posts that will not surprise any person who has been paying attention.
Today’s installment comes from the PJ Tatler and concerns efforts of the powers that be in Maryland to make sure they REMAIN the powers that be:
The group, Virginia Voters Alliance, says that it compared how voters in Frederick County filled out jury duty statements compared with their voting records. The group’s investigation found that thousands of people in Frederick County who stated that they are not U.S. citizens on jury duty forms went on to cast votes in elections. Either they failed to tell the truth when they were summoned for jury duty, or they cast illegal votes. Both are crimes. The same group previously found that about 40,000 people are registered to vote in both Virginia and Maryland.
This is what we call in layman’s terms a federal offense
It is a federal crime to cast votes if you are not legally eligible to vote. Non-citizens, whether in the country legally or not, are prohibited from voting in most local and all state and federal elections. Yet the VVA investigation found that hundreds of non-citizens have been voting in Frederick County, Maryland. One in seven Maryland residents are non-U.S. citizens.
If these tactics are necessary in Maryland a state that is not only as blue as it gets, but a state that, thanks to its proximity to Washington DC benefits from the waste and largess of those trying to raid the treasury how much more so much they be elsewhere in the nation this election cycle?
There have already been minor signs that the left is not hopeful for the 2014 midterm elections but yesterday the democrats and the administration gave a giant sign that they see disaster ahead:
Businesses won’t be penalized next year if they fail to provide workers health insurance after the Obama administration decided to delay a key requirement under its signature 2010 health-care law.
The government will postpone enforcement of the so-called employer mandate until 2015, the administration said today. Under the provision, companies with 50 or more workers face a fine of as much as $3,000 per employee if they don’t offer affordable insurance.
With Barack Obama no longer on the ballot there is no incentive for black America to turn out to prevent him from being considered a one term failure (Which was apparently more important to Black America than actually having a failed president for four more years and living with the consequences).
This makes it imperative that the low information voters who still haven’t figured out what Obamacare is going to do to them, don’t see what coming, at least not during this election cycle anyway.
But you don’t want people to know you’ve delayed it. After all some democrats are still touting Obamacare and Democrats operatives still insist Obamacare will create jobs, become popular, clear your acne, get you laid and make the need for Viagra totally unnecessary. How do you delay it without the public noticing?
The answer is this you leak out the news two days before the fourth of July while congress is out-of-town, the President is in Africa, George Zimmerman is on trial, almost every single news anchor is on vacation and a vast amount of Americans are paying less attention than ever.
That tells you how afraid they are, they know the move is needed to help in 2014 but don’t dare have anyone who isn’t paying attention realize it. What does that tell me the GOP should do for election 2014?
“Ride right through them, etc etc etc”
Now during the LAST Election Cycle when I pointed out each and every move the left made that indicated demoralization (Little did I know they were demoralized as hell enough to use the IRS to stop the tea party but I digress) I didn’t bother to give Mitt Romney & the GOP advice on what to do with it because I foolishly believed that the Mitt Romney campaign was run by smart people who realized elections aren’t beanbag.
Unfortunately, little did I realize that even with the White House at state, the GOP establishment in general and the Romney Campaign in particular were only interested in playing hardball when facing their base or the tea party.
So from now on when do a: Demoralized as hell post: I’m going to tell them how to ride right through them.
Here is what needs to be done:
1. Conservative bloggers: We need to write about it. If we live in Democrat districts we need to ask our Dem Reps attending 4th of July Parades ON CAMERA what they think of this move and post it and when we write about the races in the future we need to constantly reference and reinforce it. We also need to challenge potential Democrat candidates on this question in every race that we have access to.
2. Tea parties: We need letters to the editor by members and op-eds from the local chapter presidents written to run from Sunday to Monday to make sure it is seen
3. Potential GOP congressional candidates for House and the senate need to guest themselves on local Radio & TV and talk about this, make sure if you appear during the weekend or Monday you bring this up.
4. The House leadership: You have two options one is bolder than the other but whichever choice you make PUSH IT:
PLAN A. Extremely Bold: The House could bring up a vote mandating the immediate implementation of Obamacare.
Such a bill puts the democrats on the spot, if democrats in the house are smart and vote against it en masse you can make it a practically unanimous vote and you have a talking point that MUST be repeated by every member on every show: Obamacare is so bad the democrats practically voted unanimously to not implement it.
If they are dumb enough vote for it, generate enough votes to send it to the senate, saying: “We disagree but the Democrats insist Obamacare is vital so in the spirit of co-operation we’re going to give them a chance to prove it”.
The senate is where the real action is
Harry Reid now has a choice, does he bring up the vote and have his 21 democrats running for re-election including all the swing seat democrats vote for this or does he dodge?
You want him in that spot every single day and you want every single GOP challenger in those 21 districts to be pushing this question.
The risk: Dems pass this, the train wreck comes early and the GOP gets some blame for it but it comes pre-election.
Plan B: Less bold Offer a bill to mandate that no provisions of Obamacare are implemented till all are.
The argument is simple, Obamacare has been the law of the land for 3 years and it’s coming in piecemeal. This is making it harder and harder. The bill would simply mandate that the three-year old law’s provisions are all implemented together.
Since this law is supposedly so beneficial what is the case of the democrats saying no? If they maintain it takes time to do so point out it they’ve already had 3 years and continue to PUSH it.
5. The Base: Yes you dear reader has a part in this. When bloggers post about it, Tea Party members write their letters, potential GOP candidates talk about it and a GOP congress use their tactic, TALK about it. Put it on Facebook, on twitter, make sure your friends and neighbors those low information voters see it. Amply our voice as we try to amply yours.
He took long chances but he took them because he had to. If Grant had not had superior numbers, he might have taken chances as long as Lee took. The only way to win for Lee was with long chances, and it made him brilliant.
Shelby Foote on Robert E. Lee
For a very long time in 2011 & 2012 I was saying to anyone that would listen that the Democrats were Demoralized as hell and the GOP should “ride right through them”.
Over and over I pointed to things the Democrats in general and the Obama campaign in particular were doing that indicated they were worried.
The reason WHY the democrats were doing these things was because they knew they were in trouble and were doing all they could to counter it in order to win.
Of course while the Democrats were doing what they could control there were things that they supposedly couldn’t control and one of the things were the actions of Tea Party activists as Glenn Reynolds wrote before the last election:
In 2010, the Tea Party movement delivered a huge setback to Obama and the Democrats in congressional elections. And from 2010 up to now, it’s delivered telling blows to insufficiently responsible Republican legislators in one primary election and caucus after another. (Just ask former Utah Sen. Robert Bennett, or Indiana’s Richard Lugar, or even the victorious but chastened Orrin Hatch).
But now comes the Tea Party’s biggest test. Can it swing a close presidential election against a dependency-loving incumbent, and in favor of a fiscally responsible challenger?
People forget how scared the left actually was, let me remind you of what Michael Moore was saying DURING the Democrat convention
Listen to these quotes:
The big problem is Obama’s base is ‘Yeah I think I’m going to vote for him’ but this time four years ago everybody including myself were working on phone banks.
Young people who were voting for him four years ago are not that enthused and are not working like they were four years ago.
Moore did something you don’t often see him do, give an honest assessment of a situation, acting not as a propagandist but as a realist. He said out loud what a lot of people on the left know and what the media know but are doing their best to hide.
Why does this matter because the date of the anti-tea party moves of the IRS has continued to move back:
The scrutiny began, however, in March 2010, before an uptick could have been observed, according to data contained in the audit released Tuesday from the Treasury Department’s inspector general for tax administration…
March 2010 two months after the Scott Brown victory in Massachusetts!
Anyone who thinks that timing is a coincidence is either imbecilic, insane or indoctrinated
When I commented during the election season about the Obama administration’s fear of the tea party I said:
You can’t do a damn thing about them, you can only hope to outwork them with your paid guys.
Apparently that sentence should have said was:
You can’t do a damn thing about them…unless you are a believer in the principle of “The Ends Justifies the means” and willing to use Nixon style tactics..
Lyndon Johnson famously said, if you do everything you can win, he didn’t specify “everything legal”.
I can’t say it is a fact, that Barack Obama or his campaign officially used the IRS to retard the growth and the effectiveness of the Tea Party in order to decrease their reach and effectiveness a foe on 2012, at least not yet…
…but I will say in my opinion that an Administration willing to leave Americans to die in Benghazi and frame a crummy filmmaker as responsible for it are certainly capable of it.
An optimist would say yesterday I halved the distance between where I was and the goal of a $300 paycheck for the week.
A pessimist would say I was only $4 short yesterday and I’m STILL $2 short today.
I would like to actually make this week’s goal, so if there is at least one reader who would care to kick in to get me over the top, simply hit DaTipJar below
The folks at PEW have released their last poll of the year and their headline seems to be good news for President Obama and bad news for me who has predicted his defeat:
Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign. In the Pew Research Center’s election weekend survey, Obama holds a 48% to 45% lead over Romney among likely voters.
Here is the line from the Poll
Leftistsitesarerejoicingat a 3 pt lead with seemingly no time for Romney to change it, I’m sure Nate Silver is already boosting his averages.
Alas for the left, PEW also released their internals and even worse for them I haven’t forgotten how to do basic math so lets look at this last attempt to pretend something is true that isn’t.
First the splits in Party (click to enlarge) :
Pew interviewed 2709 people, 2611 identified themselves as either Republicans Democrats or Independents by their own count 843 Republicans, 1007 democrats and 761 independents. That works out to the following:
So right off the bat we have a poll with a base advantage for Democrats of 6 pts. Even though both Gallup and Rasmussen have told us that the electorate is majority GOP this time around.
That would be enough to laugh this poll off but the mathematical legerdemain doesn’t end there.
All year we were told that this election was going to be who by he who took the independent voters. If you look at this new Pew poll who is leading among independents? Why lo and behold it is….Mitt Romney by 44% to 41% The GOP goes for Romney 91-7 & dems for Obama 94-5
But that doesn’t matter, apparently at this late date the independent vote that was so important just a few months ago doesn’t matter in election 2012 anymore.
That’s strike two but you need three strikes for an out, is there a third one? Guess what, there is!
If we look at the sample in terms of Gender did you know that the electorate in 2012 women are going to outvote men? As there are more women than men that’s not so odd, until you look at the margin… (click to enlarge)
Pew polled 1538 women vs 1171 men. That works out to the following percentages:
Women 1538 /2709 = 56.8
Men 1171 /2709 = 43.2
No wonder the women’s vote is so important! According to PEW apparently women aren’t going to just outvote men in 2012. They are going to do so in this election by 13 whole points! That is pretty interesting, particularly if you look at this chart from a pew study from just 4 years ago
In 2008 Pew reports a 4.2 point turnout advantage over men. Perish the thought, apparently according to THIS poll the 2012 gap is going to make that 2008 figure look positively miniscule…
…if you buy it that is.
OK that’s three strikes, but lets add a throw to first just in case this gets by the Catcher.
Let’s take a closer look at this sample, how representative of the electorate is it? Well one way to find out is to see how this group voted last time around (click to enlarge):
Well look at that a 13 point advantage of Obama voters vs McCain voters, but again this is registered voters, so lets remove those who didn’t vote so we can get down to those likely guys, what would the numbers be?
Obama voters 46 / 86 voters = 53.4%
Ok that seems to mean these voters President Obama took 52.9% of the vote so that’s a full half a point MORE than the president’s share of the vote in 2008
McCain voters 33 / 86 voters = 38.3%
Hmmmm John McCain drew 45.7% of the vote so this figure is a full 7.4 points BELOW John McCain’s vote total from 2008
That a 15.1 point gap in the popular vote that Barack Obama won by 7.2 points, MORE THAN DOUBLE the actual 2008 number. That’s a throw to first to end the inning and the game.
So this is what the Pew poll would have you believe:
#1 We are going to have a D+6 electorate even though all signs indicate the Democrats are not all that thrilled with president Obama but in 2010 the republicans managed historic wins in the states, and the house and big senate wins too.
#2 Even though independents favor Mitt Romney by 3 points in this poll and Republicans are voting 91-7 for Mitt according to their own number the electorate in 2012 is SO democratic that Obama is still up by 3 points
#3 The female electorate on election day is going to outnumber the male electorate by a full 13 points thus negating any advantage that Mitt Romney might have with men.
#4 A sample where the people interviewed supported Obama in 2008 by a figure double than the actual result should be trusted to show us how the electorate will vote in 2012.
There is a phrase to describe this kind of thinking, it’s known as “Willing suspension of disbelief”.
While that is dandy if you are a Doctor Who fan watching the Doctor reverse the polarity of the neutron flow, it doesn’t do a whole lot of good if you are trying to figure out how an election is going to end up in the real world.
The fact that PEW and the left is flogging a D+6 poll with a +13 point sample of women is funny, that this poll shows Romney leading among independents yet has Obama up 3 is funnier, that you are releasing a poll two days before an election that has a sample whose members supported Obama at double the rate of 2008 isn’t just funny it screams one thing:
This is the type of thing you do when you’ve got nothing else, they’ve got NOTHING and we are going to beat them so bad they are going to wonder why they were so willing to sell their credibility on a candidate as bad as this president.
Update: If you think this is trouble for the left consider the new CNN poll. As Breitbart reports:
Moreover, the polls’s crosstabs indicate that Romney is winning self-described independent voters by a giant 59%-37% margin. A 22-point lead among independents virtually guarantees victory for Romney. Yet Democrats are so heavily over-represented in the CNN poll that Romney’s 22-point lead becomes a mere 49%-49% tie.
A total of 1,010 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, telephone usage and whether respondents own or rent their homes. Registered voters were asked questions about their likelihood of voting, past voting behavior, and interest in the campaign; based on answers to those questions, 693 respondents were classified as likely voters. Respondents who reported that they had already cast an absentee ballot or voted early were automatically classified as likely voters. Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.
Media Credibility day not withstanding, if you are going to skew a poll with a D+11 sample to get a tie you might as well get a D+12 sample and give Obama a lead. If you are going to make a fool of yourself, why not?
It has Mitt & Obama Tied at 49, but only manages this feat with a +d11 sample
I haven’t dived deeply into polls much lately because frankly there has been no point, Mitt Romney has this race and baring the “Live Boy Dead girl” scenario it’s not changing. (actually considering Romany’s rep it wouldn’t take a dead girl, a live girl would shatter his clean image completely)
But with one week to go the last gasp effort to rally the MSNBC troops took place today on Morning Joe as they touted the Quinnipiac/CBS?NYT polls Saying Obama is up 5 in Ohio with a week to go.
What really got me was their claim that the Quinnipiac poll was the “most accurate” and again playing the “poll denier” card. I’ve personally found their numbers the least believable and while they were talking about the fights in other states as an alternative to Ohio for Romney I looked up the internals of this Ohio/VA/Florida poll and found this:
After talking about how reliable Quinnipiac is, for 15 minutes and while I was tweeting out the D+8 samples in all of these states D+7 in Florida, they suddenly pivoted as Mark Halperin brought up the D+8 sample and people asked how can this be the case if Mitt is up by huge margins among independents in this poll?
At this time they made the case that the split in the sample defines the electorate while I argue that the accurate of the poll is based on how the splits match the electorate.
Now Polls have limitation based on the response rate and the various methods of getting people to answer but the actual registration and demographics of a state are a reality, they may change over time but they are what they are no matter what but of a sample is used.
In the 7 AM Hour more of the same and in the 8 AM hour they repeated this nonsense. This isn’t a poll, this is a last gasp before Media Credibility day arrives and it becomes impossible to deny what already exists.
That the Morning Joe team is spending a show trying to sell the accuracy of a D+8 poll in Ohio & VA & +7 in Fla to their far left base speaks volumes, here is what it says to me:
When you are reduced to Chuck Todd arguing body language in private conversations that’s pretty bad, by contrast you have Romney people canvasing during the damn storm.
Folks, there is going to be a turnout effort in Ohio like you’ve never seen. George Cullen has been canvassing door-to-door for the past five weeks. He usually hits about 50 doors a day, but only got 25 under the storm conditions yesterday. He’s a West Point graduate who served six years in the Army, and he says, “The conservatives are very energized.”
Yeah this is a D+8 state SURE! It will be fun to watch these guys next Wednesday.
Update: Just called Robert Stacy McCain on the ground in Ohio and asked about the “Body Language” stuff from Chuck Todd: “It’s crazy” He spoke to Kevin Madden on Sunday one of the top guys in the Romney Campaign after rally. He seemed calm and laid back. He hasn’t seen any of this scary “Body Language” from the Romney folks.
They are still working hard, they have not slacked off nor would anyone expect them to but if our friends on the left want to tell themselves this, as the folks in the south say “Bless their Hearts”.
In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election. If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead. However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday. In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.
I guess that explains why we didn’t see Ed on the show today. I suspect that message wouldn’t have been all that welcome.
Update 3: Instalanche and Michael Graham who you might recall was the owner of the site “Anybody But Mitt” says what is coming:
I believe we’re on the verge of a solid Romney win for two reasons. One is the objective evidence. The other is the ugly desperation of the Obama campaign in its final days.
and he raises a very important point I never thought of:
The president, on the other hand, has peaked at 47 percent. The Battleground Poll model shows Obama losing 52 percent to 47 percent. Rasmussen daily tracking has Obama losing 49 percent to 47 percent. Pew has him tied: 47 percent to 47 percent. But more important, all the polls show Obama sliding or stuck. None show any upward movement.
Obama supporters are quick to tell you “the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.” Two things: a) that’s what candidates who are behind always say; b) this is election day.
You might think some reporter at the New York Times, which co-sponsored this poll, would think it worth his while to interview the people at Quinnipiac and ask where they’re getting these weird over-samples of Democrats. What is causing this? How is it that Republicans report greater voting enthusiasm by such large margins, and yet are underrepresented in the poll’s sample? It makes no sense.
I’d love to hear the answer.
BTW PPP poll now being touted, Iowa Sample is D+5 Wisconsin D+4
We are now a week away from election day and the MSM has been given a gift called Sandy.
Why do I call it a gift to the MSM? Because it gives them a story that overwhelms all others allowing them to put the election on the second or third tier as Romney continues his march.
I have been telling you for a while that the best way to determine what is happening is what people are saying, vs what people are doing.
Yesterday I was listening to Rush on a Minnesota radio station because all the local stations were all Sandy all the time and what did to my wondering eyes did appear but news of Bill Clinton going right there.
Now let’s be clear, There is the president, there is VP and there is Bill Clinton, these are the big guns for the Democrats and are not deployed lightly.
You are sending the single most valuable non-office asset the Democrats have to Minnesota? Not Colorado? Not Nevada, not Wisconsin, not Iowa, not Virginia but MINNESOTA?
How on earth do you justify this move with a week to go unless Obama is in trouble there and if Obama is in trouble in Minnesota then….
As for Pennsylvania we Reported Paul Ryan has done events there, which tells you plenty remember Time is the one commodity you can’t get more of and if Ryan was campaigning in PA last week that means something. Now both sides are spending money in the state but with a difference. The GOP money is a super pac outside of the campaign, the Obama money is DIRECTLY FROM THE CAMPAIGN.
If the White house is spending its limited funds in Pennsylvania then that says…
Finally Florida, the big swing state what are we hearing about Florida.
Florida WAS a swing state, it was a state everyone spend a lot of time talking about how Paul Ryan was going to drive seniors away from the party.
None of this has happened. This state is in now a Romney State
If the game is no longer being played in Florida and is now being played in Minnesota & Pennsylvania know what that says?
And if you don’t believe they are demoralized as hell, look at the faces of the MSM.
Update Stacy who is on the ground in Ohio gets it:
Yesterday, Jim Messina called the Romney super-PAC’s ad buy in Pennsylvania “desperate.” Today? Yeah, Obama’s buying ads in Pennsylvania.
Does this mean Romney is going to win Pennsylvania? No, but it does mean that it’s close enough that Team Obama couldn’t afford to let Romney air ads unopposed in Pennsylvania. And this news, coming just four days after it was reported that Team Obama is buying ads in Minnesota, is the best indication that Democrat insiders know that the president’s re-election is seriously endangered.
Guys, Romney is going to win this race and it’s not going to be close.
Romney has faced economic challenges at key points in his professional and political careers and has always seemed to grow in the job to deliver greater expectations than when he went in. President Obama, on the other hand, lacked any prior experience before entering the White House in 2008 and appears overwhelmed by the one serious economic challenge he has confronted.
The complements to Romney are strong but the brickbats swung at the President are not something you would expect to read from a Massachusetts paper that endorsed him the last time around.
President Obama continues to say America is in an economic recovery. The families broken by his recovery, whose cornerstone was Obama’s $787 billion economic stimulus package, know otherwise: Public-sector employees and union workers got “shovel-ready” projects and dollars; the private-sector got the shaft and more regulations.
In 2008, an unproven Obama promised things would turn out differently with him in charge. “Change we can believe in” is how he put it. Four years later we realize it was all made up.
All made up? Can we make it sound even worse? YES IT CAN!
Obama isn’t even trying to defend the indefensible — his failing four-year record. Instead, in partisan style he is blaming others, including Democrat and Republican predecessors, for driving America to the edge of fiscal insolvency.
When Obama looks into a mirror, he must see Jimmy Carter staring back at him.
President Obama makes a weak case for re-election. He says his policies need four more years to kick in. This from a commander-in-chief who hasn’t passed a federal budget in three years, hasn’t submitted a comprehensive energy bill in four years, and hasn’t given voters an inkling of where America might be headed through 2016. Where’s your plan, Mr. President?
Remember this is a MASSACHUSETTS Newspaper in a City with a Democrat Mayor, a majority Democrat City council, a Democrat State Rep and a Democrat State Senator represented by a Democrat Congressman.
In The Sentinel & Enterprise’s view, that’s where America has fallen off track these past four years. America trusted a “hope and change” candidate, it didn’t work, and we’re suffering the consequences. Now we’ve got a tested leader with a proven track record standing before us — Mitt Romney — and it’s his time to inspire Americans to greatness.
When Newspapers who endorsed Obama in 2008 in Massa D+26 chusetts are writing editorials like this with two weeks to go before election that means one thing:
Robert Stacy McCain and the Sept Finance Report drives the final stake through the Democrats Heart:
The Democrats ended September with cash on hand of $4.6 million, compared to the Republican National Committee’s $82.6 million.
That’s nearly an 18-to-1 cash advantage for Republicans.
And if you think that’s bad this is worse:
the DNC, they had to take out loans to pay the bills so that they owed $20.5 million at the end of September, meaning that that (subtracting cash on hand from total debt) they were $15.9 million in the red — essentially bankrupt. Wasserman-Schultz’s committee only raised $3.7 million in September; at that pace, it would take them more than four months to clear their debt, even if they didn’t spend another dime in the meantime.
What is the most significant word in this story? SEPTEMBER.
You see the first debate wasn’t until Oct 3rd. September was the DNC in Charlotte. It took place the first week of the month. A convention that our media friends told us was such a success for the Obama Campaign, A Convention the media told us put Romney in a big hole, a convention that meant Romney would need a miracle of a debate performance to recover from.
Yet in the land of Realville in that awesome month for the left when the month when Republicans were going down for the third time the people who actually write the checks were so impressed by the party they left them in a state where they had about 6% of the cash the GOP did.
You can believe one of two things, either the money men all employed psychics who were under the influence of Pyroviles:
or the media was shoveling in the hopes of bucking up the left and scaring the right.
Archie: “Yes, and that’s the kinda straight thinking I’m trying to put across here.”
All in the family 1972
I woke up late today and have been trying to think of how to properly encapsulate the reaction of the far left to Joe Biden’s performance last night. In my travels this morning I found exactly what I wanted in a sign in front of a person’s house on Providence Street in Fitchburg
Ignoring for a moment the “How long have they had a chimp problem on Providence Street?” question, nothing better describes the MSNBC/P2 crowd today than this image.
The entire “demoralized as hell” meme is all about how our friends on the left have been selling the American people an alternative version of reality not in sync with actual events and yesterday’s debate provided the best example of this.
Democrats running for office have been running away from Barack Obama for a year. After the president’s debate performance the American People started joining them. To the left who had embraced the Sam Tanenhaus “death of conservatism” meme, who discounted the midterm election and who considered the victory of people like Ted Cruz and Mia Love in GOP primaries as a bug rather than a feature of the conservative movement, panic and depression set in. They needed something, ANYTHING to convince them all is not lost.
But to the MSM, to MSNBC, to Chris Matthews, Ed Schultz and to every leftist who were preparing to move to Massachusetts after election day in the hope that Question #2 will pass and they can end it all Joe Biden was a savior.
HE stopped the bleeding. He fought back. He showed the Democrat party was better than the GOP. He was a man schooling a boy. He re-energized the base!
Never mind that the election is 27 days away and they’re losing.
Never mind the need to expand the base.
Never mind that Paul Ryan at that same table succeeded at the only job he had in this debate, demonstrating that he was perfectly capable of stepping into the #1 spot if something, God forbid should happen to Mitt Romney in the next four years.
No, says the left, we aren’t hearing any of this, we don’t see it! All we saw was a mighty warrior who vanquished the evil youth who is going to kill our seniors and sell our poor for sausages. You can say all you want that this debate didn’t move voters away from Mitt but we’re not listening to you!
The activist MSNBC left can put its fingers in its ears all it wants, it can pretend this debate is a game changer rather than, at best, a draw, but the few democrats involved in the campaign still living in realville understand that all Joe Biden performance accomplished was bandaging an open wound. It might stop the bleeding but it’s not going to get the patient in any condition to win a race.
And 27 days is not a lot of time left for them so that means one thing for us on the right:
He’s going to show you the bricks. He’ll show you they got straight sides. He’ll show you how they got the right shape. He’ll show them to you in a very special way, so that they appear to have everything a brick should have. But there’s one thing he’s not gonna show you. When you look at the bricks from the right angle, they’re as thin as this playing card. His whole case is an illusion, a magic trick.
My Cousin Vinny 1992
Remain Calm, all is well
Animal House 1978
We are now more than 24 hours out of the Obama/Romney and the full impact of the Media & the Obama campaign’s brief visit to Realville is still rippling though the political community.
For months the Obama Campaign and the Media have crafted a carefully built house of cards that Barack Obama has been in the lead for months and that the GOP had no chance.
Their weapons were polls skewed even more that the shots of the villains hideout in the old Batman series and the control of the narrative that the media can shape.
But on Wednesday 65 million people+ saw Mitt Romney next to Barack Obama, unfiltered, face to face and they liked what they saw.
The excuses poured out. Oh it was the altitude, oh Jim Lehrer didn’t do his job (apparently this job is to carry the Democrat Candidate see David Gregory and the 2nd part of the Scott Brown Elizabeth Warren), Romney was using “racist dog whistles“, oh and Romney was just a big fat liar etc etc etc.
The real problem is an economy that is in horrible shape
The real problem is even with skewed polls people think the country is in the wrong direction
The real problem is each day more facts on Libya come out damaging to the administrations narrative
Mike Barnicle on Morning Joe yesterday alone noted the lack of his teleprompter. But the real problem has been the lack of a competent president
The real problem is the empty Chair that Clint Eastwood debated showed up Wednesday.
And now the Tens of millions of people who don’t follow the fight every day like you dear reader, saw the emperor with no clothes and then went back to their lives immune to the agreed counter message the left/whitehouse/msm is now coordinating.
And people are figuring it out. Three examples:
Remember AARP booing of Paul Ryan at their convention. The media pushed that story. But they didn’t do much pushing on their coordination with the Obama administration in passing Obamacare
Thanks to just-released emails from the House Energy and Commerce Committee, we now know that AARP worked through 2009-10 as an extension of a Democratic White House, toiling daily to pass a health bill that slashes $716 billion from Medicare, strips seniors of choice, and sets the stage for rationing. We know that despite AARP’s awareness that its seniors overwhelmingly opposed the bill, the “nonpartisan membership organization” chose to serve the president’s agenda.
The 71 pages of emails show an AARP management taking orders from the White House, scripting the president’s talking points, working to keep its board “in line,” and pledging fealty to “the cause.” Seniors deserve to know all this, as AARP seeks to present itself as neutral in this presidential election.
“While we respect the rights of each campaign to make its case to voters, AARP has never consented to the use of its name by any candidate or political campaign. AARP is a nonpartisan organization and we do not endorse political candidates nor coordinate with any candidate or political party.
Simple question: Even if the president had a bad day, does AARP throw Barack Obama under the bus if they see him winning?
We’ve been told that Barack Obama has a huge advantage in early voting, we’ve seen poll after poll talking about how even if Romney “turns things around” too many people have already voted.
While in 2008, 33 percent of the 1,158,301 absentee ballots went to Democrats and just 19 percent to registered Republicans, a 14-point gap, this year 29 percent are being requested by Democrats and 24 percent by Republicans, a five-point gap.
What could be worse for Obama?
University of Dayton Professor Larry Schweikart told American Majority Action President Ned Ryun that the GOP gains favor Romney. “Although it is early, we will soon be at a point where–assuming Republicans vote for Romney–the Democrats will have to overwhelmingly win all the remaining early voting just to be even on November 6. But, given Ohio’s voting history, if the numbers are even close after early voting, Obama will lose, and possibly lose big.”
A Guardian survey of six of the most crucial swing states upon which the outcome of the presidential ballot is likely to depend has found that new voter registrations recorded between January and August this year are markedly down compared with the same period in 2008. The drop is particularly pronounced in several states for the Democrats – a likely indication that Barack Obama’s re-election team has been unable to match the exceptional levels of voter excitement generated by his candidacy four years ago.
and of course Rasmussen poll which shows the GOP registration at its second highest number ever.
Question: If the president is doing so well, where are all these republicans coming from?
Finally as I’ve said before, as we get closer and closer to the finish line, time becomes the one commodity you can’t get more of, so every second is precious.
Yesterday President Obama coming off his disastrous performance in Denver had a large and successful rally at least through the eyes of a fan:
When Obama arrives, looking casual in khakis and a jacket, the clouds literally part. Good grief, does this guy have even the sun on his campaign payroll? Surveying the huge audience, he gets them eating out of his hand from the start: “I’ve been told this is good practice for Halloween on State Street!”
This is not the subdued, diplomatic Obama of the presidential debate. Offering a clue about the way he’ll spend the month before the election, the president lights into Mitt Romney with gusto. Referring to Romney’s overeager debate performance, he says, “I met this very spirited fellow who looked like Mitt Romney.” The conceit is that this “fellow” wasn’t the real Romney, having masked his views to appear more moderate.
Aside from this new material on the debate, much of what Obama says is familiar: “We can’t afford to double-down on the same trickle-down policies that got us into this mess.” “We succeed when everyone has a shot.” But he delivers his message so fiercely that you fear for Mitt Romney’s safety at the next debate.
Obama has the crowd screaming as he turns up the heat at the end of his speech. “I’m not fighting to create Democratic or Republican jobs, I’m fighting to create American jobs!”
A pretty picture, but the problem isn’t the picture it’s where the picture is being taken.
The rally was in Madison Wisconsin, a state that just last month the media reported polls showing a double digit lead for the President.
Question: If the polls are correct as reported, why is the president spending one of the few precious days left in this campaign in a supposedly safe blue state?
The answer to all of these things is simple, the Obama Campaign like the Obama presidency has been what it always has been, a con, grift, an illusion. Take off the media filter and you see things as they are.
And when you see things as they are, there is only one thing to do
1. I have a special edition of DaTechGuy on DaRadio coming up 1 p.m. EST on WCRN AM 830 listen live at wcrnradio.com
2. Saturday I will be doing my show live from the American Products Store’s American Crafts show. The Crafts event is from 9-3 I’ll be broadcasting from 10-noon 187 Main Street – that’s Route 9- in Cherry Valley
3. On Saturday Oct 20th we will have our 100th show, we are broadcasting live from Lago’s Ristorante Mill Street Worcester, we will be broadcasting 10 to noon and staying till two meeting with listeners and providing a free brunch. If you would like to go just click the ticket below and reserve a spot because seating is limited
David Freddoso who said on Twitter that if all you knew about Romney was what you saw in Obama’s TV ads, you’d get the sense that Obama’s been lying to you all this time. Romney helped himself tonight — possibly a lot.
What if they should find a leader? What shall we do then.
General Burgoyne The Devil’s Disciple 1959
Ulrich’s discovery of guts is cause for organization wide concern
Daredevil Comics Born Again 1986
As we get closer and closer to election day (or should I say the day when the votes are counted since early voting has started in some states) there has been a small tremor that lately has gotten less and less press both in Massachusetts and nationwide. That is the effect of citizen activists taking an interest in the vote.
No I’m not talking about the activists that the Democrat party funds via Government Largess via Unions etc such as Neighbor to Neighbor in Worcester and ACORN who like the machines of old are tasked with providing the vote totals the left needs by shall we say , all necessary means. I’m referring to the grass roots tea party folk whose involvement in electoral politics is cause for organization wide concern for the left.
When the large tea party groups held their rallies in Washington, while there was some surprise there was very little worry on the left or the media. After all annually the March For Life protests was (and still is) the largest protest in Washington and the MSM has successfully ignored its numbers to the point where the hundreds of thousands of people who participate might as well be invisible. The left was sure they could count on the MSM to downplay the numbers and effect of these crowd.
But something different happened when the tea party folks made it home. Something the left did not suspect.
Our friends from the left, so used to their own paid protesters and rent-a-mobs, assumed that once there was a picture for the media to see people would simply fade away until the next media opt.
Then never imagined that without the pay from a large organization that people might actually get involved.
With Scott Brown’s victor in January of 2010 came the first actual shock to the left, the idea that there might be something going on here. 10 months later the results of the house elections gave the left another huge shock. 63 seats worth of shock.
In Massachusetts the left woke up in time for the election. The hand that they had kept behind their back because it wasn’t needed was brought out. The left and the union had people all over the state, making sure the Bay State remained solidly in the “D” Column.
The left breathed a huge sigh of relief in the state figuring this was the high water mark for the right.
Then came the official loss of an electoral seat, then came the retirement of Barney Frank,
and then came people like Bonnie Johnson a tea party activist who started delivering some startling news concerning the law in Massachusetts:
Every January Massachusetts Cities and town send out a city/town census to every residence. It lists the registered voters in the dwelling and how they are registered. I’ve filled it out every year without a thought, not noticing the warnings on the form if it is not done.
I had filled out the form for years not thinking a word about not realizing its significance
If the form is not returned the people on them are marked as an “inactive” voter. By law an “inactive” voter who attempts to vote must fill out and sign a form and provide proof of both residence and identity to be able to vote.
The law had been on the books for a long time but when you never have contested elections nobody really cared about it, she visited tea party groups in the states and delivered the message:
The problem seems to be a lot of people are not aware of the law, and if you want it enforced you need people at the polls volunteering and working to ensure it IS enforced.
The results have been training session that taught people what the rules were and how to be sure they were enforced while poll watching, at the time I asked Bonnie Johnson how this works:
DaTechGuy: Now how would the poll worker know that it’s an inactive voter is there like an “I” next to it someplace?”
Bonnie Johnson: There’ a lower case “i” next to their name.
DTG: Now is the poll worker required to demand this or does an observer have to bring this up from your experience?
BJ:The Poll worker should demand this.
DTG: So if the poll worker doesn’t demand it, if you are an observer you can say “This person was inactive, you are required to do this.”
DTG: And this is by state law?
But nobody had been enforcing the law, why bother? the elections in Massachusetts were as contested as elections in Iraq during the Saddam era, but now you have people being forced to enforce the law with the following result
BJ: In Worcester 99,000 voters 46% of them became inactive when they did this.
Remember Worcester is the 2nd biggest city in New England Behind Boston and Scott Brown lost the city by just under 2000 votes out of 38,282 cast. The number of now inactive votes exceeds the total number of votes cast in the 2010 special election. In Boston Scott Brown lost the city by 38 points. Just under 60,000 votes. Imagine if you are a democrat poll and a well funded Scott Brown campaign has poll watchers in every precinct who KNOW THE RULES.
Fast forward to this year’s state primary election, held on September 6, 2012. Countercharges, of voter fraud and “voter suppression,” were levied by and against Worcester Tea Party observers on that day. Worcester Tea Party members say that they observed people being escorted into the polling precincts, again by Neighbor to Neighbor wearing their purple shirts. In addition, allegations of voters showing resident alien – green cards – as identification were witnessed. The observers tried to document this and were thrown out of the polling location, they would say illegally, for doing so.
City officials, led by Councilor Saral Rivera, stormed into the voting precinct to allege voter intimidation by the neutral observers, to the Democratic primary. Numerous hearings have been held by both the City Council and the Election Commission to determine what happened on that day. As the New York based newspaper up the street’s editorial board has said no credible evidence has been presented showing voter intimidation. So far little evidence has been found that the Election Commission has refused to call for a formal investigation.
And when the author of this piece Rob Eno of Red Mass Group tweeted out things like this
In precinct 10-3 in #worcester voters asking where they get their money for voting for a particular candidate #mapoli
oh Harassing it it? Well if those tea party folks were harassing people instead of making sure the law is obeyed I’m sure the Worcester Election commission dominated by democrats would demand an investigation to make sure voters aren’t being intimidated….
The Election Commission is holding off, at least for the time being, on calling for a formal investigation into allegations that some observers violated the rights of voters during the Sept. 6 state primary.
But…but the harassment, the intimidation of minority voters, surely the people victimized by these scurrilous actions complained. Surely groups like Neighbor to Neighbor being community organizers devoted to protecting the rights of voters have submitted this information to the city or the state…
it was pointed out that no formal written complaints or affidavits have been filed by any poll wardens or aggrieved parties with either the Election Commission or the secretary of state’s office.
No complaints, no affidavits no sworn statements? If this is true the question is WHY?
I suspect the answer is closely related to a question I asked a few weeks ago concerning the left’s complaints over voter ID laws in Pennsylvania:
Why should producing an ID change the result of any election?
Why should the use of an item needed at any bank, to cash any paycheck or government check, to use a credit card, an item you are asked to produce at a hospital, at a supermarket or even to buy booze cause the results of an election to change? Do Democrats need these ID less that republicans?
The answer is simple. There are no affidavits because those would be declarations made under oath that would have to be defended in open court. Just like showing an ID or filling out an affidavit for a provisional ballot would be a declaration under oath that a voter is who they say they are and live where they say they live.
In a federal election that’s a federal offense.
In 1941 Lyndon Johnson ran in a special election for the US Senate, his primary opponent was the sitting Governor Pappy O’Daniel. Johnson campaigned hard (nobody worked harder at campaigning than Lyndon Johnson) and was not shy about stealing or buying votes either, but Johnson make the fatal mistake allowing some of his “owned” precincts report early giving O’Daniel the ability to know how many votes he needed to steal/buy/fix to win this election.
Robert Caro in his first volume on Lyndon Johnson “The Path to Power” told of Johnson’s reaction on page 739:
Johnson’s reaction was to try to steal it back. Telephoning George Paar, he asked the Duke of Duval to give him more votes. But Parr Refused; he later told friends he replied “Lyndon, I’ve been to the federal penitentiary, and I’m not going back for you.”
The left can bluster, they can scream and they can cry, but as long as there are tea party people watching, as long as the activists are ready and educated on the law, as long as campaigns like Scott Brown has the money to make sure that any person trying to cast an illegal ballot. (or should be call them undocumented ballots) will be challenged and subject to the full penalty of the law then those who have been unchallenged for years will think long and hard before they take that risk.
THAT is why the left is fighting so hard, THAT is why there is worry, that is why we are reduced to polls like Sunday’s Columbus Dispatch suggesting somehow Mitt Romney with 90% of the GOP vote and with 40.8 of the independent votes vs 41.7 to Obama is somehow down by 9.
And it’s also why they are not covering what the Tea Party is doing as Glenn Reyonlds reports:
the mainstream press isn’t very interested in covering this kind of thing anyway. Stories about Obama grassroots organizers in 2008 were fine. Stories about the Tea Party organizing this time around would conflict with the preferred (if somewhat contradictory) narratives that the Tea Party is (1) just a bunch of billionaire-funded astroturf; and (2) a preserve of racist “bitter clingers” who are too busy digging for Obama birth certificates to engage in hard political work.
Either way, these kinds of initiatives will make a difference. The question, again, is whether they’ll make enough of a difference.
That is the big fear, what do you do if there is a pool of activists not controlled by a major party, a group that you can’t office political goodies to in the hope they will simply go away?
You can’t do a damn thing about them, you can holy hope to outwork them with your paid guys.
That’s why I’m still very confident in saying this:
A Commonwealth Court judge said Thursday that he was considering allowing most of the state’s controversial voter identification law to remain intact for the November election and was contemplating only a very narrow injunction.
Judge Robert E. Simpson Jr. said at the end of the second and last day of a hearing on whether to halt voter ID requirements for the Nov. 6 election that he was considering an injunction that would target the portion of the law that deals with provisional ballots.
You can tell what the folks at Philly.com think of it by the title in the link…
I just received a new poll for Ma-3 (My congressional district) that says a lot about the races in Massachusetts.
This is a district that is newly formed so there are not concrete numbers available for the party splits (I am systematically calling each town in the district to get the numbers hope to have them by the end of the week). But while we don’t have the party splits we DO have the numbers from the Scott Brown election for the district in 2010:
Brown 57% 129521
Coakley 42% 95820
There are of course three races going on here the first is for president:
Tsongas is running even with Obama but Golnik is already closer than the last time he faced her. Can he he close a 7 pt gap. It should be doable, it will take hard work and turnout but it CAN be done.
Meanwhile here is are Scott Brown numbers these hold the key for all the races we have talked about.
Scott Brown – 54%
Elizabeth Warren – 42%
Undecided – 4%
At first glance this poll might be encouraging to Elizabeth Warren, she is still even with Martha Coakley and Brown would have to that 3 out of the remaining 4 pts of undecided to match the last go around. But there are several reasons to worry here if I’m Warren first comes this split in the polls
Female – 55%
Male – 45%
Yes you read that right, you have a +10 pt gap women vs Men and yet Scott Brown out polls that champion of women Liz Warren by 12 points (and remember this was taken BEFORE the law license revelations of today)
“But DaTechGuy”, you say, “didn’t you teach us not to jump until you see the splits what were the splits on this poll?”
I’m so glad you asked here are the splits in this poll:
That’s +14 for dems in a +24 state (-4 dem vs +6 GOP compared to statewide, undeclared is the same) This is a much more GOP section of the state but I’ll need till the end of the week to confirm by how much but lets note the following:
In a sample that is +14 dem & +10 women
Barack Obama only has an 8 point lead on Mitt Romney
Nikki Tsongas only has a 7 point lead on Jon Golnik
And Scott Brown leads Elizabeth Warren by 12 points! Twelve POINTS!
Brown needs a good gap here to win in Mass and for Mitt to have any chance at winning the state he has do to better but to pull these kind of numbers with a -14 disadvantage if extrapolated statewide & nationally says a lot about both Warren & Obama and none of it good.
While all of that is important lets look at this congressional race and the numbers involved.
Tsongas is +22 with a 57% Favorability Ratings. She has a famous name and is a sitting congresswoman but more importantly she is a pleasant person. Additionally only 8% of the electorate dosn’t have an opinion so that’s a real advantage.
Her Opponent Jon Golnik has a +16 Favorability Ratings, that’s nothing to sneeze at particularly in a -14 poll sample but the big difference here is 34% of those polled either haven’t heard of him or haven’t made up their minds.
This is his opening, 7 points is extremely doable and Golink has several things he can do
1. Obamacare: Remember Obamacare was the reason Scott Brown did so well last time, Nikki Tsongas has (to her credit) not run away from her vote for the Unpopular law. Golnik needs to tie her Obamacare so tightly to Nikki Tsongas that if she fell into the water she could use her vote as a flotation device.
2. Brown/Golnik Warren/Tsongas: Scott Brown was an early endorser of Jon Golnik, he needs to play up, it must be Golnik & Brown vs Tsongas & Warren. If Scott Brown so much as goes stop to go get Gas anywhere in the District Golnik needs to sanding next to him. Any Brown event in Ma-3 HAS to be a Golnik event meanwhile all over Fitchburg I see Nikki Tsongas & Elizabeth Warren signs together, great, link them by the hip.
3. Positive Positive Positive: Hitting a 66 year old widow of a beloved figure in the state isn’t going to do the trick, the instinct to go negative needs to be resisted (and no tying her to Obamacare is not negative advertising, that’s the truth)
The case to make is this: Nikki Tsongas is a nice person and an honest person, she just wrong. That’s the ad: Nikki Tsongas & Elizabeth Warren, wrong on Obamacare, wrong on Taxes and wrong for the 3rd District. Jon Golnik like Scott brown believes lower taxes, ending the Mandate of Obamacare and will fight to bring jobs back to new 3rd district.
This race is completely winnable by Jon Golnik with some hard work and some smart moves but if you are the left consider this: In Massachusetts with a +14 D sample and a +10 Women sample has an opponent in striking range.
If this is the situation in Massachusetts what must it be nationwide in states where Obama is not as popular?
They have party identification results online dating back to 2004. Here are the 2012 numbers through August
That shows a GOP advantage in registration this year but you might say: “Hey, Datechguy, you’ve been hitting polls all year, why can’t THIS poll be wrong?”
That’s a good question, we can answer it by asking another question: Does this poll of party identification correspond with the results of national elections?
Lets take a look:
2004 George Bush wins re-election
The closest the Republicans come to democrats in registration is Sept at a .6 in September. On election day Democrats had a registration advantage of 1.5. Yet not only did George Bush win re-election with that disadvantage but the GOP took 3 senate seats and 3 House seats over 2002.
2006 Midterms Revenge of the left:
In January the GOP was the closest they would be .6 off but by November the Mark Foley scandal was still big news and on election day Democrats had a spread of 6.1 points. This carried them to a net gain of 31 house seats & 5 seats.
2008 The coming of Barack Obama
The year of hope and change. The closest split was 5.6 in January & in September after the Palin Pick but by election day not only was the split 7.6 for Dems but for the first time (Feb) A party had identification over 40%. The Democrats kept that number over 40% 8 out of 12 months that year reaching a high of 41.7% the largest number in this 9 year sample for either party. With these figures it’s should be no surprise that Barack Obama win but Democrats picked up 8 seats in the Senate & 21 Seats in the house.
2010 Midterms The Rise of the Tea Party
2010 proved conclusively that timing is everything for the first time in the nine years, the GOP took an advantage in poll registration from -2.9 to plus 1.3 in one month, and that month was November.
Additionally the 37.0 figure for the GOP was the highest for the party since Dec 2004. At the very same time the 33.7 figure in December was the lowest figure for democrats EVER.
Correspondingly the GOP gained 6 Senate seats (not counting the Jan Scott Brown Race) and in the house picked up 63 seats more than democrats picked up in 2006 & 2008 combined.
These results since 2004 seem to indicate the poll is reliable. So what has it said lately, lets start with 2011 lets look at 2011
This is the year of the great fights between the GOP House & the president and it’s the most interesting year of the lot. The lead changes hands 6 times during the year as the country tries to figure out what it wants and for the first time EVER Other was in the lead, (Aug) tied with the GOP (33.5) ahead of democrats (33.0) other was ahead of the GOP 3 times in 2007.
Now lets look at that 2012 chart again:
At no time during the year do the Democrats have a registration advantage vs republicans, the gap closes in July & re-separates in August. The low point for the GOP was July for 34.9 and the high August at 37.6 For democrats the high was 34.0 in June & July the low was 32.4 in Feb
What does this mean for November? It means a lot.
The Democrats won 2 election in this period 2006 & 2008 with a 6.9 advantage in 2006 & a 7.6 advantage in 2008.
There is no example of the Democrats winning since 2004 with an advantage less that 6.9.
The GOP won two elections in this period 2004 with a -1.6 disadvantage & 2010 with a 1.3 advantage. This means the GOP has proven it can win with not only a small lead but with an actual disadvantage. Additionally with an advantage of only 1.3 they pulled off the biggest house swing in my lifetime.
Can these number change? Well the biggest 1 month swing I’ve seen is 4.2 Oct-Nov in 2010 the biggest 3 month swing was Dec 2007-Feb 2008 6.9 in favor of Democrats at the rise of Obama.
Tell me with the economy in the tank, and the new trouble in the Middle East, what is the prospect of a swing of that size to the Democrats happening again right now? Moreover even if that record registration swing repeated itself right now this would give democrats an advantage of only 2.6 points.
I’ve covered a lot of national polls on this site over the last year and all those polls ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX have one thing in common.
Not a single one of those polls had a sample with a GOP advantage.
As Rush would say: Zip, Zero Nada.
Not only have none of these polls had a GOP advantage but the closest we saw was a D+4 poll.
In every single poll showing Barack Obama ahead on this chart the sample is at least D+4 Even if the biggest swing in history takes place in the next 3 months toward the left that is 1.4 points above what the party split will be.
All of the figures I’ve cited are from a source publicly available. The Media know these figures, the left knows these figures and the Networks know these figures.
Yet they are still using polls with huge democrat samples and representing them as real.
I don’t know what that tells you but I sure know what it tells me
Update 4: I should stress that none of these figures are an argument to be complacent, to not make the calls, to not engage and to not fight for every vote out there. The registration trends are in our favor but apathy is fatal. Be cocky but not lazy.
Thanks to you all, welcome to all the new readers and check out the site, the radio show (latest episode available by clicking on my fedora above) Nice to have you here.
Update 7: BTW for those who don’t know I like Rush have been arguing all the objective data shows the Democrats are not only losing but “Demoralized as Hell” click on the words “Ride Right Through them They’re demoralized as hell” for the full series and if you are a Rush fan you will want to read this or the short version here.
I’ve been arguing for over a year that the media has been doing their best to hide the true condition of this presidential race, but as Glenn Reynolds often says what can’t go on forever won’t. Today some interesting sources of evidence have shown the jig might finally be up.
It’s has been a source of massive frustration to me that people on my own side , today four different pieces of evidence came up
If booing God and his holy city is a part of the Democratic Convention happening in this universe, I’ll take the alternative universe Bill Clinton said the GOP lives in. This is why Barack Obama stands a good chance of losing. It is the Democrats who have disconnected from America.
I’m on record repeatedly doubting Mitt Romney’s viability as a candidate, but more and more I think not only is Romney winning, but the polling is not reflecting the strength of his campaign and the media is actually sabotaging the Democrats’ chance of winning. In fact, I dare say if MItt Romney wins he will have the American media to thank for his win.
The Media, the Media that backs Barack Obama shamelessly? How can it be the media’s fault that Obama is going to lose? A clue comes from a totally unrelated ABC News story on a new book by Woodward.
The failure of Obama to connect with Boehner was vaguely reminiscent of another phone call late in the evening of Election Day 2010, after it became clear that the Republicans would take control of the House, making Boehner Speaker of the House.
Nobody in the Obama orbit could even find the soon-to-be-speaker’s phone number, Woodward reports. A Democratic Party aide finally secured it through a friend so the president could offer congratulations.
Imagine a president so out of touch that the possibility of losing the house in an election where his side lost 63 seats never hit him. And that not all:
Woodward portrays a president who remained a supreme believer in his own powers of persuasion, even as he faltered in efforts to coax congressional leaders in both parties toward compromise. Boehner told Woodward that at one point, when Boehner voiced concern about passing the deal they were working out, the president reached out and touched his forearm.
“John, I’ve got great confidence in my ability to sway the American people,” Boehner quotes the president as having told him.
Hey when you have all the world telling you how great you are, when you have the Nobel committee giving you the peace prize and when you have the MSM drinking the same kool aid you tend to get a swelled head.
“No matter how you spin it.” Think about that. This video is 93 seconds, it was transmitted on CNN live, For a full 13 hours plus it is on the top of Memeorandum. You can watch in less time than it takes to boil an egg. Yet not only is our friend Jackie saying it didn’t happen, but she is totally comfortable saying the following to the entire world:
until you finally got to the Bill Clinton story. Jackie was unmoved.
Now I’m sure Jackie is a very nice and bright young lady, but she is caught in what Erick Erickson refers to as the Media’s Feedback loop:
The Democrats and most of the mainstream media live in a symbiotic relationship and feedback loop. When Todd Akin says something dumb, the media seizes on it and attacks Todd Akin and the GOP. For the past several weeks the media has fixated on how out of touch the GOP is, its platform is, and its Presidential candidate is.
At the same time, the media has been largely silent on the Democratic Platform except for yesterday’s ridiculousness. Even then, the media mostly failed to point out that the Obama campaign said it had approved the platform removing God and Jerusalem, while going to great lengths to point out Obama intervened to put them back in.
It’s sort of like the old Soviet Union Group-think, everybody talking and saying the same line and unable to see outside of their prism.
And this is only the latest version in the last year Three Examples:: 1. Jon Huntsman:Absolutely nobody was talking about Jon Huntsman as a viable Presidential candidate except the MSM. This MSM drove Huntsman into the race where nobody but the media showed up for his announcement. After months of coverage where the media never failed to insist he was a factor he managed a 3rd place finish in NH driven by Democrat voters crossing over and dropped out before South Carolina when he couldn’t convince people to give him another red cent.
2. The Occupods:It was painfully obvious from the start that the Occupy movement had disaster written all over it, yet the MSM and democrats embraced it assuming it would counter the tea party even though there were solid clues this was a bad idea:
Godwin’s law states that once someone compares his or her opponents in any argument to Nazis, they automatically forfeit that argument. With the American Nazi Party formally endorsing the Occupiers, the question arises: does Godwin’s law apply if you are on the same side as actual Nazis?
Not to be outdone, the Communist Party USA has also backed the Occupy Movement, which gives these protesters support from both of the 20th century’s most successful mass murdering ideologies.
I keep expecting some elder statesman of the left to play Admiral Akbar, and shout to the Democrats who are jumping on the Occupy bandwagon: “It’s a trap!” But it looks like there aren’t any adults left to do so.
3. Elizabeth Warren & the You didn’t build it speech.Running for re-election in Massachusetts for Scott Brown would not be easy, even a mediocre candidate could give him a fight, but while smaller state candidates jumped in there was no outcry for Elizabeth Warren to enter except by the National left and the MSM.
When she finally got in she gave a speech that will live in infamy
This played very poorly among the voters, particularly business owners, but it played very well with the far left National Democrat base. It was such a fundraising boon that President Obama team didn’t think twice before jumping on the “You didn’t build that” bandwagon.
And we all know how that ended
In all of these cases and others I could name, the actual situation was clearly visible to anybody willing to objectively look at evidence and ask questions. Yet the MSM safe in its cocoon never saw it and thus Jackie and people like her had no clue.
Take yesterday, if you didn’t watch Fox or read anything but the left side of the blog world you likely didn’t see this on Tuesday:
People act defensive for a REASON. Anyone who saw Dick Durbin’s reaction would have KNOWN the Democrat platform was not only a disaster in progress but the party was terrified, but this clip didn’t play on other networks, instead the party leaders spun, the left blogs spun and the Jackie’s of the world believed it. Erickson again
The Democrats actually have a very extremist position on abortion. The media that spent so long focused on the GOP’s position has barely dealt with the Democrats. Why? Because most of the mainstream media is in ideological lockstep with the Democrats on this. It’s hard to tell the Democrats they’ve gone too far astray from mainstream America when the mainstream media is over on the lefthand side to begin with.
The Democrats, in other words, overplayed their hand on the War on Women and there is no media voice they listen to saying, “Hold up, you’ve gone too far.” Most of the media is with or to the left of the Democrats on this. For a year now you and I have been hearing about the growing secularization of and atheism in America. I now see that’s no longer a coincidence, but another effort to feed the Democrats’ feedback loop in much the same way polls were being churned out in the press in 2010 showing how popular Obamacare would be despite all objective polling showing it was not.
Remember Todd Akin, the person who had supposedly handed Claire McCaskill her Senate Seat back, the man who could put Missouri into the “toss-up” column, the guy so “extreme” that the left decided to go all Abortion all the time for their convention Sandra Fluke and all.
All of this has not been happening in a vacuum, it’s happened in front of our faces, from the first candidates to decide not to run to the spectacle of the DNC chairperson ducking interviews yesterday. to small blogs saying stuff like this:
The Democrats had a voice vote yesterday on whether to put references to “God” and “Jerusalem” into their party platform. I think it would be unfair to say that the Democrats denied Him three times.
He might think it’s unfair, but even as I write this post the first GOP ad featuring this video has been released by Congressman Allen West:
For the Jackies of the world , it’s another reality, like the American Indians become the first European came to shore, they just can’t visualize it. Erickson one more time:
I really don’t think Mitt Romney is a strong candidate. And I’ve consistently believed he would lose. But now I think he’s winning and doing so largely because the Democrats have so overplayed their hand on social issues while ignoring the economy with no corrective from the media. The American people are aghast at what they are seeing and will respond accordingly at the polls.
The Democrats have made the one always fatal mistake anyone can make in politics — they’ve believed their own press.
I actually think there are quite a few in the media who actually know how things are going, who understand where this is going to end, but will do their best for as long as they can to prop things up until they finally believe it will do them no good.
Do not be surprised if there is a negative bounce from this convention or a poll released with a Dem +6-12 in order to hide just how bad things are.
Update: Robert Stacy McCain:
More politically significant was the Democrats’ official party platform, which was revised this year to omit reference to God, and to delete a previous statement supporting Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. When these revisions sparked negative headlines, party leaders moved quickly to change the platform, but they screwed that up, too. With Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa chairing the convention, a motion was made to re-instate both God and Jerusalem into the platform, but when Villaraigosa called for a voice vote to approve the motion, it was far from clear that the measure had support from the required two-thirds of delegates necessary to pass. After asking the question three times, Villaraigosa finally ruled that the “ayes” had it, producing a storm of booing from the hall. The controversy was sufficiently heated — and the embarrassment sufficiently great — that Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz canceled her scheduled TV appearances, evidently to avoid discussing the issue.
I guess Debbie should have kept cancelling interviews to avoid this on CNN
In the time it takes to watch Debbie Wassermann Schultz in her great new hairdo deny the evidence of our own eyes, a person can watch the original video 6 times.
Update 2: The west video was from a non-West site, uploaded from his own YouTube.
Update 3: Spoke to the West re-election office, this will NOT be only a web ad.
When I saw the new Three Stooges Movie my first reaction was meh!
It was OK but wasn’t all that special. When people asked me about the movie however I found my self talking about funny scenes (Do-nut Remover) and laughing. When I went back with my other son I found myself laughing and that’s when it hit me. When I went the first time I was thinking Moe, Larry & Curly from the 30’s & 40’s. the original Stooges. When I saw it without the expectations of the past I was able to enjoy the movie for what it was. (Still didn’t like the baby duel scene).
That brings us to Clint Eastwood at the RNC.
When I watched Eastwood on the stage I thought it was one of the weirdest things I had seen. While he made some great points he looked his age, and while the chair business was something right out of the sixties, Morey Amsterdam and Bob Newhart.
As Time magazine’s Mark Halperin explained on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Friday, “I think everyone has missed that Eastwood’s performance is very closely based on a Morey Amsterdam performance from dinner theater in Bayonne. Kind of night at the improv.”
Amsterdam was a stand-up comic who had his own sitcom on TV from 1948 to 1950 and also appeared on “The Dick Van Dyke Show “as Buddy Sorrell.
But the argument could be made that Eastwood was also evoking a little Bob Newhart, whose classic “Driving Instructor” routine first appeared on his “The Button-Down Mind of Bob Newhart” album in 1960.
This actually makes sense people tend to remember the comedy of their youth (you see a lot of Python here) but the real question is: Did it work?
I noted at the time Eastwood managed to accomplish several things, holding the audience & absorbing the hits from the left, but my thought is that he basically won a news cycle and that’s it.
Apparently Clint Eastwood struck a never fever nationally and the White House and the left is worried, VERY Worried.
The right rallied on Labor Day to celebrate “National Empty Chair Day,” a show of solidarity with Clint Eastwood after his rambling address to an invisible President Barack Obama at the Republican National Convention last week.
The action picked up steam on Twitter, where the hashtag #emptychairday began trending on Monday morning as users tweeted pictures of empty chairs in various poses.
“So Dirty Harry, make my day,” Saunders continued, quoting the Eastwood character. “We’re gonna kick some ass in November.”
Then he kicked the chair. Loudly.
And now we have the left trying to get Betty White to counter Eastwood at the DNC: ABC News:
They’ve taken on big banks and workers’ rights abuses, now the progressive activists at Change.org have their sights set on bringing comedienne Betty White, 90, to the Democratic National Convention.
“Clint Eastwood, the Republican’s ‘mystery guest’ at the RNC, gave a bad name to older Americans everywhere with his absurd and awkward-to-watch introduction of Governor Romney,” Peter Slutsky wrote in his petition to draft White. “Governor Romney can have Clint Eastwood and his improvisational skills because President Obama has the one and only Betty White!”
Remember this is Memeorandum TODAY 5 days later and this is still on top.
I thought the Eastwood thing was a one day blip, but I was wrong, this has turned out to be devastating to the left.
One day Stories don’t generate events that generate Politico coverage.
Ineffective speeches don’t cause Union presidents to physically beat up chairs during speeches
And if the Eastwood thing was so bad, you don’t have people scrambling to find an even older actress to take the stage to counter.
Has generated over 300,000 views on Youtube (303,883), it has generated 2,348 likes, 1,926 dislikes almost 4500 votes it is still producing reaction 5 days later.
This has absolutely terrified the left, a left already scared to death and you know what that means…
After all, who is Clint Eastwood? He is one of the top actors, directors and producers of motion pictures in the world. Most of the world — and almost certainly everyone tuning in to the RNC Thursday night — knows this. Yet most of the analyses of his RNC appearance are based on the notion that we were not witnessing acting. That mass suspension of disbelief may be the highest tribute Eastwood will ever be paid as an actor. If you think the Eastwood on stage was the only Eastwood there is, watch him promoting J. Edgar on The Daily Show last November. I have little doubt he will be equally sharp promoting Trouble With the Curve in the next few weeks.
There were a lot of speeches yesterday. Mike Eurzonie gave a great one, Marco Rubio made a better one, Clint Eastwood made an odd one and Mitt Romney is giving his as I type this.
In the morning when this post will go up, there will be an awful lot of pixels spent to say what they think about Mitt’s speech but it was not the most important words said on the air yesterday. The most important words came from of all People Michael Moore:
Listen to these quotes:
The big problem is Obama’s base is ‘Yeah I think I’m going to vote for him’ but this time four years ago everybody including myself were working on phone banks.
Young people who were voting for him four years ago are not that enthused and are not working like they were four years ago.
Moore did something you don’t often see him do, give an honest assessment of a situation, acting not as a propagandist but as a realist. He said out loud what a lot of people on the left know and what the media know but are doing their best to hide.
This post has over 10,000 comments I read through a bit over 50% during & after the Romney speech (a good speech but not a killer one) and from what I can see in comments it affirms what I’ve been saying for over a year…
There are times when I really think the left thinks it is still 1992 or 1996 or before, the internet doesn’t exist and nobody is around to dispute a word they put out, but then I sit down and think and realize it’a all about short term gratification.
Yesterday after the Code Pink people failed to properly disrupt Paul Ryan’s speech the entire MSM speaking with one “Journo-listic” voice was screaming “liarLIARLIAR!”
“…Have to prove clearly he is a liar“? Really Howard, Is that your unbiased experienced Journalistic opinion?
I’ve never forgotten that day at Darthmouth College after the debate when I was filming Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the spin room when this same Howard Fineman who is paid as an objective journalist, challenged my being there. So I might be forgiven if I tease him a bit on this.
I don’t claim to have the experience that he does in the field nor the connections of him or Joan Walsh, and I don’t pretend in the least to be unbiased. but you know one thing I apparently have over Howard Fineman and all his friends, the ability to do a Google Search.
…Since they were shut down in 2009, both the Janesville and Tennessee plants have been on standby status, meaning they were not producing vehicles, but they were not completely shut down.
That’s the Milwaukee Journal Sentinal via Twitchy, and here is Legal Insurrection quoting GM you know that company decided to buy for us, itself:
The Janesville plant was closed in 2009 after Obama took over, and as part of the takeover of GM by the government.
That’s when the decision was taken to shutter the Janesville plant for good, as GM itself announced on June 26, 2009 (emphasis added):
General Motors selected its assembly plant in Orion Township, Mich. and stamping facility in Pontiac, Mich., to build its future small car, which will add to the automaker’s growing portfolio of U.S.-built, highly fuel-efficient cars, including the Chevrolet Cruze and Volt. Today’s announcement will restore approximately 1,400 jobs in total — 1,200 at Orion Assembly and 200 at Pontiac Metal Center, Building # 14….
“This is great news for our members at UAW Local 5960, Oakland County, and the State of Michigan, and shows the world the UAW can compete in the most competitive segment of the automotive industry,” said Cal Rapson, UAW Vice President and Director, UAW-GM Department. “My heart also goes out to our UAW members in Janesville, Wisc., and Spring Hill, Tenn.
Stacy McCain, you know a real journalist, is outraged by this:
What is so profoundly offensive about the unethical and dishonest behavior of Chris Matthews, Joan Walsh and other such Democrat sockpuppets is that they won’t admit who they are and what they’re doing. They are not independent journalists, they’re partisan publicists, yet they expect to be taken seriously as reporters when they can’t even be bothered to do a Google search and find out when a factory closed.
They are a disgrace to the profession to which they claim to belong. Truth matters. Truth is precious and powerful. Liars are a dime a dozen.
Stacy Stacy Stacy, you don’t get it, their objective wasn’t to get it right, the objective was to counter Ryan for one news cycle so when people read their papers & web sites in the Morning they would see the word “lie”. If a CNN says otherwise later, it doesn’t matter as long as it’s in a difference news cycle or at least late.
Not only will less people will see it and by today everyone is talking Clint Eastwood.
Ideally of course as the Evil Blogger Lady says, they would Palinize him, but barring that disrupting the news cycle will do.
In a way it’s much like the proposed plans of the left, do just enough to win the current cycle for the voters and worry about what happens next, a budget is bad for the cycle, don’t have one, need to solidify the Hispanic base and can’t pass the dream act, order it, Gay Democrats won’t give money, reverse yourself, need to burnish your image among Christians reverse yourself on Cardinal Dolan.
The problem with instant gratification is eventually all this spinning and sliding catches up with you, as Glenn put it.
You know, the Democrats’ media base has served two functions. One, of course, has been to misinform the people who don’t pay much attention. It can still do that, though with reduced efficacy. But the other was to demoralize or intimidate the opposition. That part seems to have pretty much fallen by the wayside.
Or to put it another way, in the short term you might get away with it for a news cycle or two, but in the long term your reputation goes the way of Lindsay Lohan on a bender.
Either way what do we make of this move by the MSM and the left on Ryan? I think Robert Stacy McCain had a tweet that really summed it up well:
The fact is Barack Obama is a horrible inexperienced, arrogant pol. He had a good election team that took advantage of the perfect storm of a sudden crisis, a weak opponent and the historic nature to create a false image that the public fell for. Now after four years the con is up and the people who ran it and those in the media who fell for it are worried, and that adds up to the final tweet that says it all…
Matthews obviously doesn’t want any discussion of Obama’s record, and wants to scare Republicans away from it by toxifying those issues as raaaaaaaaaaacist. The aromas of desperation and fear are strong in this clip.
That’s the entire point they can’t run on his record, they have to cry raaaaaaaaacist which means…
Something is happening in this country — something both the Obama campaign and its media cronies know is happening but won’t acknowledge.
What’s happening is on the ground and not yet quantifiable in polling that doesn’t yet have its sea legs. But it’s out there and it’s real and before the media and President Obama are forced to acknowledge it, they’re spending every bit of their dignity and credibility and integrity to kill it.
Hysteria creeps into campaigns when the campaigns know they are losing. When George H. W. Bush saw the election slipping away in 1992, he took to referring to Bill Clinton and Al Gore as Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum. The invective went up as his poll numbers went down.
Nice Deb notes this and expects worse:
That’s the reason we can expect even more desperate, hysterical, hyper partisan mudslinging and dirty tricks from Obama and his cronies from now until election day – they can’t lose.
For a year I’ve been telling everyone who would listen to me that this election is going our way, that every single objective metric and the actions of the left back it up. Actions like this:
The other thing that they’re trying to do is that they have a coms group—and this is breaking news you need to know this—they have a coms group that is trying to shut down the EMS communications structure for the city. That’s really happening. They’re trying to shut down the communications structure for the city for law enforcement and emergency medical personnel.
But these occupod types, the intellectual children to Elizabeth Warren, they’ll do the same to the left right?
And no, they’re not going to do the same thing at the DNC, that’s the thing, is because the radicals feel like the average liberal is confused but they have dehumanized completely the conservative. And so they feel they are entitled to take our rights away when they’re not going to do that at the DNC. That’s the difference.
the left media and the entire left establishment who claims they have nothing to do with these anarchists, they will defend them and dirty the name of anybody who exposes them just as they did to me and just as they did to Andrew. They will defend their darlings and attack the character of anyone who holds them accountable and calls them out.
But despite a full year of screaming this out, writing about it here on the blog and saying it on the radio with 50,000 watts to back it up it hasn’t sunk in and the hardest people to convince has not been the left who is doing their best to pretend it isn’t happening but the right who can’t bring themselves to admit they are winning for fear that something anything might happen to blow it.
But now look. You have John Nolte from Breitbart openly saying on one of the most significant sites on the right Obama is losing. You have Erick Erickson from CNN bluntly saying these are signs of panic in his campaign and you have Nice Deb a blogger highly respected throughout the net daring to believe and say what’s been apparent for a while.
One of the only sources of hope for the left has been the right’s unwillingness to say this aloud, if John, Erick and Deb are now willing to do so it means only one thing.
It’s highly doubtful that the ego-driven “messiah” of 2008 would now want to be portrayed as the failed and struggling POTUS running for re-election who can’t even win 2012 on his own.
Besides, what smart, up and coming Democrat would risk going down to defeat with Obama in 2012, after he won with Biden in 2008, only to have a national embarrassment like Joe Biden say, I told you so? Most likely, none.
Yet, at the same time, across the greater right and among Republicans, it appears as though some have a sort of Stockholm syndrome.
The right would do well to re-assess reality around Biden. Obama isn’t “sticking” with Biden, he’s “stuck” with him, a fact that can only help to further demoralize an already nervous Democrat Party. Nationally, plenty of Democrats aren’t only hiding from Obama, their running away from him.
Jay Cost has argued that Biden’s remark was not a gaffe, but rather an attempt to rally African-American support for Obama. To be sure, Obama has a stranglehold on that vote. However, Cost shows that, in a close election, he may need to carry it to the same extent he did in 2008. This time around, such an overwhelming majority would require a fired up, angry African-American electorate. Hence, Biden’s inflammatory rhetoric.
To apologize for that rhetoric, or even to walk it back, would amount to a concession that the Republicans don’t actually have it in for African-Americans. That’s not a concession Obama is eager to make.
I concede that the president needs help with his black base but in this case I suspect any voter who would fall for this is already locked in for Obama.
There is however another more important aspect of the Biden quote, something that Democrats don’t dare say aloud but are likely already wargaming.
When facing an unpleasant reality one of the hardest things to do is to face it. People will go to great lengths to avoid doing so.
For a long time I have maintained that Democrats are demoralized as hell, it is clear that the problem for Democrats this cycle is not at the bottom of their ticket, but at the top.
When the left is defeated in the fall, when they lose the White House, and Senate and when the House remains in GOP hands the question will be asked:
They will point to money, they will point to voter ID laws but the they dare not admit aloud the real reason: Barack Obama and his policies.
The left is a hodgepodge of various groups with conflicting positions and goals. If the blame for defeat is put on the first African American president there will be those in the Black community who will not forgive and forget. To a lesser degree Gay groups do NOT want any suggestion that the president’s decision to come out for Gay Marriage might have been a fatal blow…
I’ve really wondered about this until it hit me. This is battlefield prep.
Joe Biden solves many problems, Black American’s didn’t stay home because of President Obama’s failures, or his position on Gay Marriage, it was Joe Biden’s insult. Independents didn’t go to Romney because of the president’s policies it was Joe Biden, the buffoon dragging down the ticket. The House didn’t stay Republican and the Senate didn’t turn because of Tea party efforts and a rejection of Obamacare, it was Joe Biden who provided that drag.
Now don’t get me wrong, we still need to work hard, these guys want to win. They will play some dirty tricks to try to pull this off and of course if Mitt or the GOP somehow makes a mistake of epic proportions the left will do their best to capitalize on it.
But the more sober heads in the room already see the writing on the wall and the message that “Poor old Joe blew it.” will be a lot more palatable to the true believers than anything resembling self-reflection.
However, President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden are not drawing the crowds they once could. The New York Times reported that the Obama campaign said that it is intentionally limiting crowd size at their events because of security and cost:
If you believe that, Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and Tinkerbell will show up, backing Axelrod in “Confiscated Guns ‘n’ Subsidized Roses“, and perform their 30-minute blues-rock jam, “In a Gadda da Bushdunnit” as an Obama fundraiser.
We have been told over and over again that the Obama campaign is doing well in the swing states, that Romney/Ryan has no traction. That the election is Obama’s to win or lose.
If this is true can you explain why at a small bakery in Virgina the Vice president was turned down.
“Crumb and Get It” is a mom and pop store. Literally. Chris and his wife Kelly run the place and need all the business they can get.
McMurray said the Vice President’s entourage got to the point and made its pitch.
“She said they have selected ‘Crumb and Get It” to be his stop on his way to Blacksburg and was wondering if that was ok.”
Here’s the part that might make other business owners crazy.
“This is an opportunity of a lifetime but essentially I said ‘No offense to you or the campaign but I just decline you guys coming in here. At that time she said ‘Are you sure? There’s going to be a lot of press, a lot of activity,’” McMurray said.
Why in the world would a new business owner say “no” to a photo op with the Vice President of the United States?
McMurray said it was President Obama’s recent remarks about small business and who built what.
“Very simply, ‘you didn’t build that’” McMurray said. “Speaking of small businesses and entrepreneurs all across this country and actually last night my wife was up all night. No sleep, she’s worked a full 24 hours.”
Listen any small business would LOVE to have that kind of publicity, but this guy decided that the trip of the sitting VP of the US was not worth it.
Folks, bottom line: this doesn’t happen if your side is winning.
And there are the crowds, have you seen the crowds? Robert Stacy McCain is in Ohio and sees them clearly
While we were at Skyline, our waitress explained that she had not been scheduled to work that day. She had come by the restaurant to check her schedule and the manager — swamped by the influx of patrons after the Ryan rally — asked her to help out.
“I’ve never seen so many Republicans in my life!” the waitress said of the afternoon crowd. I explained to her that it was probably due to Ryan’s endorsement of the “Five Way,” and told her this surge of business was “the start of the Romney-Ryan recovery.”
Folks, bottom line: This isn’t the sign of a pick that’s failing
and then there is the Hillary talk…
President Barack Obama has slightly more than 22 days to drop Vice Presidential Joe Biden from the 2012 Democratic presidential ticket, according to lawyers familiar with the party nominating process. That is, Democrats have until September 6 to formally nominate their presidential ticket which will then be qualified for the 50 state ballots.
This involves 2 different questions and they should be addressed independently:
I don’t believe that president Obama will drop Joe Biden or that he will “suddenly” develop a need to leave the ticket but the very fact that this is being discussed seriously shows the weakness of this campaign and the need for a “game changer”.
This is something the left and the democrats can not do without admitting failure and desperation but this whole public conversation is conducive to panic.
But let’s for the sake of argument say the party has decided they need a big roll of the dice and dropping He Biden is it. This begs the 2nd question Would Hillary Clinton take the job? The answer is NO.
Hillary Clinton can count, she knows where this election is going and a defeat on the ticket with Obama will not only stain her with the that failure but will link a Clinton campaign to Obama. She doesn’t want to base her campaign in 2016 to be linked to Obama. She wants to run as the return of the Clinton presidency.
Hillary Clinton knows the problem for the Democrats & the left is not the bottom of the ticket, it’s the top and that’s why Republicans should do this:
Today, they added a deceptively edited video [a la Andrea Mitchell] to substantiate their lie:
However, it cuts out the rest of Romney’s comments, mid-sentence. Here’s the transcript via Action 2 News:
Actually, Paul Ryan and my plan for Medicare, I think, is the same if not identical–it’s probably close to identical. Our plan is for people 55 years of age and older. There’s no change. The only change I’d mention for 55 or older is we’d restore the $817 billion President Obama took out of the Medicare trust fund.
You don’t play this game when you are winning.
Update 2: According to Ed Klein the offer to replace Biden came up two weeks ago, here was Hillary’s answer
“She felt that if she were on the ticket with Obama and he lost, she would be tarred as a loser when she tried to run in 2016,” Klein said. “On the other hand, if she was on the ticket and he won, and he continued his far left-wing socialistic policies, she’d have to defend those policies when she ran in 2016.”
Even Bill couldn’t talk her into it, proving once and for all she is smarter that he is.
But the crowd for the afternoon fundraiser at the Bridgeport Art Center totaled 1,000, an Obama campaign official said – more than the 850-person estimate the campaign offered earlier in the weekend. Tickets for the Gen44 fundraiser, targeted at younger supporters, started at $51, but many were more expensive.
And, to this reporter and several others in the White House press pool, the room seemed plenty full. There was empty space at the back of the large loft space during and immediately after the president’s remarks, but the crowd was densely packed to get close to the stage at the front of the room where Obama spoke.
The problem for Politico and the left is we all remember the crowds for Obama 4 years ago. If you are arguing over half full vs “plenty full” both of them mean something different from “Full” or “Overflowing” Thus Tom Maguire’s quip:
some say the glass is half empty but I say it’s a specimen cup.
Anne is at the Romney-Ryan rally in Waukesha. She says the crowd is so large they had to move the rally from indoors to outdoors to accommodate all the people.
We’re still trying to confirm the crowd size estimate. (Campaign says 10,000, which is similar to what Anne was told.)
Take a look at that line, you would think it was Chick-Fil-A on a Wednesday.
Stacy McCain was at Manassas and the men from Massachusetts & Wisconsin got more of the same:
How big was the crowd? Huge. Enormous. Gigantic. It was difficult to get an estimate because the audience attending the rally overflowed the pavilion (which has an official capacity of 1,000) and filled the surrounding plaza. Lines to get into the venue circled around several blocks and, when Romney and Ryan arrived, there were still hundreds waiting to get through the metal detectors. Susan Ferrechio of the Washington Examiner, who rode into town on the press bus, shot a photo of the crowd lining the streets of Manassas that prompted the paper’s editorial page editor Mark Tapscott to muse that the polls must be wrong: “How to explain such crowds if Obama is leading in Virginia, one of the key swing states?”
Clearly these two Northerners won this third battle of Bull Run.
This is the difference between a campaign that is winning and a campaign that is losing. Last time around Obama drew huge crowds and McCain didn’t match until the Palin pick. This time around with the Ryan Pick Romney is getting the overflowing crowds while the Obama media tries to argue the difference between a “half full” and “mostly full”
On Tuesday, the Left – armed with the most attractive, eloquent, young, hip and charismatic candidate I have seen with my adult eyes, a candidate shielded by a media so overtly that it can never be such a shield again, who appeared after eight years of an historically unpopular President, in the midst of two undefended wars and at the time of the worst financial crisis since the Depression and whose praises were sung by every movie, television and musical icon without pause or challenge for 20 months… who ran against the oldest nominee in the country’s history, against a campaign rent with internal disarray and determined not to attack in the one area where attack could have succeeded, and who was out-spent no less than seven-to-one in a cycle where not a single debate question was unfavorable to his opponent – that historic victory, that perfect storm of opportunity…
Yielded a result of 53%
Folks, we are going to lick these people out of their boots.
4th Doctor:Then he must be exceptional even I am occasionally wrong about some things
Doctor Who Genesis of the Daleks Pt 1 1975
It’s not personal it’s strictly Business
The Godfather 1972
By the time you read this Paul Ryan will officially be named VP for Mitt Romney today shooting down my prediction of Tim Pawlenty.
I was frankly surprised at the pick, primarily because in several ways Ryan is a bold choice to wit:
Ryan is absolutely hated by the Left and will help energize Obama’s base
The Ryan plan has specifics on what to do about the debt and specifics give an opponent something to attack.
Ryan is not only a creature of Washington but a creature that Symbolizes the GOP house throwing it directly in the face of the left.
At a time when Obama is playing the “war on women” card and appearing with Sandra Fluke Paul Ryan as a Catholic who actually BELIEVES in the faith and doctrines of the church is a glove in the face to Obama and in some degree to the LCWR nuns who have dogged him over the budget.
It is a direct contrast to Democrats, The Ryan Budget vs the Budget that Democrats forgot
Mitt Romney is known for a lot of things, boldness is not one of them, but there is also the pandering side of Romney and Paul Ryan as a darling of conservatives is a pick that panders to the right a bit and if there is one thing we’ve seen from Mitt Romney in the past, he will pander.
But in the end the Ryan pick doesn’t emphasis Romeny the Bold or Romney the Panderer, it actually reflects Romney the fixer/CEO.
Mitt Romney is applying for a job as CEO of a company in trouble. Paul Ryan has delivered a plan to address those troubles, a detailed methodical plan that tackles every tough choice that has to be made.
Furthermore he has defended this plan and these choices for years. Even those who disagree with him, respect him for putting himself out there. When the house tries to push back on various part of the plan Paul Ryan knows chapter and verse, he will be in an excellent position to fight for this stuff.
There is no question in my mind that Romney would have been more comfortable with Pawlenty and the Governor of Minnesota has done everything short of shoeing his wife’s horse to get the job.
However Romney the turn around specialist hired to make the tough calls, can’t look at sentiment, can’t look at loyalty. Such a person looks at a problem, figures out how best to solve it and does so coldly and methodically.
Ryan is the pick of a CEO, as for Gov Pawlenty who was so loyal…
For the left, A Romney pick of Ryan is a gauntlet in their faces. It says he doesn’t buy the polls that he is behind. It means he isn’t afraid of the flack he will get from the MSM. It means that he understands that the GOP house candidates will happily run on the Ryan plan while Democrat after Democrat runs from Obama like the plague. It’s a direct challenge: I’ve shown you my budget now show me yours.
In short Mitt Romney’s pick of Paul Ryan says one thing to every GOP candidate in the field for 2012
Your Tweets — and you know who you are — definitely made a difference. As I explained Thursday, Romney’s people pay attention to their online metrics. Every Tweet to @MittRomney with #GiveUsRyan was a signal that Ryan was the grassroots consensus.
So far, only Nice Deb has acknowledged the difference you made.
The DaTechGuy summer fundraiser trying to raise the money for a used car to keep me chasing stories.
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One of the things that I have found so frustrating over the last year, in person, on the blog and on the radio show has been the pessimism among some on the right concerning the results of the election.
I’ve pointed time and time again to the various political candidates with skin in the game who are clearly running away from a Toxic Obama, but it hasn’t mattered, some disaster is going to happen, some speech is going to be given, the Spanish Voting machines are going to be fixed or some bit of Republican stupidity is going to turn victory in defeat.
The dirty secret is this is entirely predictable. The Obama Campaign spent millions in July when nobody but pundits and folks like me were paying attention to keep donors and true believers thinking this is a tight race we can win it if only I give another $300
But with under 100 days to go the people who actually have to make decisions based on the future can see the tea leaves and are acting accordingly. No amount of spin or outrage will change that
Lieutenant: …I thought I could catch Little John if he was silly enough to believe your note
The Deputy Sheriff of Nottingham: My signature was on that letter, my word! Are you trying to dishonor me?
The Adventures of Robin Hood: Goodbye Little John 1960
The questions continue to pile up in the whole: “What the *#$&@ are the Obama campaign & allies thinking” business.
Item: Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Jerusalem
With issues already appearing with the administrations support among American Jews the administration finds itself tongue-tied over a simple question
I’m sorry in an election year when you are having trouble with your Jewish base the idea that an administration isn’t willing to say aloud “Jerusalem is the capital of Israel” might be a problem, particularly when your opponent is in Israel saying something like this:
Mitt Romney delivered a blow to the Obama campaign’s frantic efforts to defend the president’s hostile stance toward the Jewish state simply by saying: “It is a deeply moving experience to be in Jerusalem, the capital of Israel.”
Considering that Jews are already outraged over the Olympics deciding the Jewish Athletes murdered in Munich were not a big deal (it’s worth noting that Peace prize winner Obama and the smartest and best-est secretary of state evah weren’t influential enough to change minds on this matter) then again the question arises did they really want to do so. Let’s take you back four years ago:
In 2008, Obama had a big problem in the Democratic primaries. Prospective Jewish voters were being inundated with anonymous emails warning that Obama’s affiliations with Palestinian activists portended disaster for Israel. Locked in a tight contest with Hillary Clinton, the future president couldn’t afford to lose the constituency in the primary—and later in the general election, especially in the swing state of Florida.
Who came to the Rescue? Dennis Ross well-respected within the Jewish community, involved in Oslo
Ross was a powerful asset for the campaign. He went to synagogues in swing states and participated in conference calls to tell Jewish voters that he was supporting Obama over Clinton’s first lady. He continued his work with the campaign during the general election, which Obama won with between 74 and 78 percent of the Jewish vote.
Four years later I’m sure president Obama would like to deploy Ross to once again reassure Jewish voters of his support for Israel, too bad that Ross has decided he’s not going to get involved.
He put his word and his reputation on the line for Barack Obama in 2008, for some reason he isn’t willing to do it again.
I wonder why?
Item: Sure your worth even more money that we lose a year but that makes you a Wimp!
Newsweek has settled on a new line of attack on Mitt Romney:
In 1987, this magazine created a famous hubbub by labeling George H.W. Bush a “wimp” on its cover. “The Wimp Factor.” Huge stir. And not entirely fair—the guy had been an aviator in the war, the big war, the good war, and he was even shot down out over the Pacific, cockpit drenched in smoke and fumes, at an age (20) when in most states he couldn’t even legally drink a beer. In hindsight, Poppy looks like Dirty Harry Callahan compared with Romney, who spent his war (Vietnam) in—ready?—Paris. Where he learned … French.
Ok it’s not a new line of attack on a Republican for Newsweek as the magazine conveniently figures that a quarter century is just the right amount of time for a correction if one can try a new move against Romney.
The big finish is really funny:
At some point, an unexpected event more serious than the Olympics—a scandal, a smear—will put Romney under the interrogation lamp, and he’ll need to rise to the occasion. We’ll see then if he has it in him.
Only a person who paid absolutely no attention to the GOP primaries could say that sentence with a straight face, let alone the last month where the Obama smear machine tried it’s level best to rattle him.
This attack is hilarious, the MSM is making a fuss of it but Romney is laughing it off.
Why? How can it be that Mitt Romney isn’t bothered by this kind of attack? Three reasons:
First of all Mitt Romney knows voters in the US care as much about what Newsweek says as Canadian Officials care about the United Church of Canada says (not at all)
Second of all in an election all about the economy it doesn’t hurt him all that much to be lectured by a magazine that sold for the price an order of fries off the dollar menu that he is not qualified. Just to remind you:
Yeah, if I was a Romney Surrogate I’d love the chance to contrast his success to Newsweek’s failure.
But the big reason why Romney isn’t bothers is what the move signifies. It means that Obama’s allies are running out of cards viable cards to play and it’s only July. And it looks like people who risked their reputations in the past to stack the deck, like Dennis Ross are unwilling to do it again. That means only one thing
I thought these desperation tactics would have waited until later in the campaign.
I predict come October the president’s campaign will so desperate and their tactics so outrageous that it will be interesting to see just how far the media and Democrats who hope to remain electable long after Obama is gone will go to defend him.
It sure won’t be boring.
DaTechGuy Fundraiser is still in progress, although after a full month I we haven’t managed to hit the half way point I’m still not demoralized as hell. Any help is appreciated. For details click here for the progress check the thermometer to the right and to kick in hit DaTipJar”.
Today Politico, MSNBC, the Washington Post and the Moderate Voice all breathlessly report that while the negative campaign has brought down the popularity of both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, the president leads Mitt by 6 points in the latest NBC/WSJ poll.
The 2008 national exit poll sample, taken when Hopenchange fever was at its zenith, was 39D/32R/29I, or D+7. This one, after three years of Obamanomics dreck, is somehow D+11 if you include leaners and D+12(!) if you don’t. Anyone feel like taking these results seriously?
Bottom line in a poll 46% Democrat and 35% Republican, yet with an 11 point advantage the president only manages a 6 point lead.
One of the topics asked about was Obamacare, according to the internals 40% of the respondents favored it while 44% opposed it.
So in the poll the number of people who supported Obamacare was 13% below the total number of Democrats in the poll, while the number of people who opposed Obamacare was over 25% greater than the number of Republicans polled.
The obvious question is this. Considering that we are in an internet age and the internals of this poll are available why on earth would NBC/WSJ even bother to release a poll so skewed that it can be debunked in about 19 seconds?
The answer lies in the links I lead with. Each of the sites primary audience consists of leftists and none of them mention the D11 split.
This poll has nothing to do with reporting the state of the race, it has everything to do with convincing the left that president Obama is not in the trouble he is in.
For us on the right willing to actually read the internals of this poll and know what it means it says one thing:
The DaTechGuy Fundraiser lumbers on. The primary goal is $3000 with a race that might be closer than people think in Ma-3 it is going to be worth your time and money to kick in to make sure it’s covered. Any help is appreciated. For details click here for the progress check the thermometer to the right and to kick in hit DaTipJar”.
He wasn’t wasting his money. A candidate’s assessment of his chances was discreetly checked and rechecked through other sources…if a report was highly unfavorable, so was Johnson’s response: Noel P. Fox Democratic candidate in Michigan’s Ninth District, told Johnson that he was leading by 1,500 votes, but Johnson knew better (Fox in fact was to lose by 12,000); “None,” he wrote next to Fox’s name.
Robert Caro Lyndon Johnson The Path to Power 1982
The old Avalon Hill gaming company created some of the most amazing military simulation games in history from the Siege of Jerusalem to the Arab Israeli Wars, the greatest of these games was a World War 2 infantry game called Squad Leader.
The game pieces represented individual squads of 3-12 men and single pieces representing the Squad Leader after whom the game was named.
The leader piece and the morale system was the greatest innovation in war-gaming. The entire game mechanics was about keeping the morale of the troops high enough to keep fighting. If you lost your morale and couldn’t rally them, you could not win, PERIOD.
Which brings us to again to Bain and the Obama Campaign.
Yesterday I talked about how the Bain attacks were all about keeping big donors giving, but as any campaign person can tell you while money is vital to a campaign it can’t do everything.
With allies like the Unions and groups like ACORN you can produce astroturf to make a protest but all of those things require either money to pay such people or intimidation to make sure people show. I never forgot meeting a Union Steward who was checking to see which of his members showed up for a rally for Coakley in Worcester and who did not.
A campaign simply can’t survive if they have to pay for each and every individual doing the grunt work you must have Volunteers motivated to do these things. Without the volunteer foot soldiers, willing to knock on doors, willing to hold the signs, willing to do all of the small things a campaign falters.
Volunteers give the single most valuable thing a human has, the one thing he can’t create more or earn more of. The one thing he can never get back TIME.
While there are a few romantic quixotic types out there. It is almost impossible to get people to give that time if they believe there is no chance for victory. Even the true believers once they figure there is no chance, will move on to the next campaign.
And that’s the 2nd reason why the Obama campaign is going all in.
The money problem is huge and may already be insurmountable for the president’s re-election campaign, but if the foot soldiers decide this election is over at best they might end up on a local, state or congressional campaign, at worst, they’ll just go home they might even not vote.
So the Obama campaign will burn money and keep burning it as long as they can, because the moment the stop the truth of these words become clear
The Obama Campaign has unleashed ad after ad contending he was an outsourcer. The cable networks have talked and talked on the subject and the MSM has been divided between those who have said Mitt has to come clean and those who think the attacks are unfair but insist Mitt needs to answer them.
Either way, the MSM consensus is Mitt is playing prevent defense. As usual the MSM has it exactly BACKWARDS!
It isn’t the Mitt Romney team that is playing prevent defense, it is the OBAMA Campaign.
And THAT’s why the Obama campaign is spending their meager war chest and going all in on Bain in the middle of Summer.
The Democrats and their allies in the media understand that if this election becomes about the president’s record, it will be over before the first debate begins. They also understand that while people aren’t paying attention they see in passing the magazine covers, the Newspaper headlines and the various media stories as they surf the channels or see the TV screens that are now impossible to avoid as you go to the bank, the airport or the local watering hole. If those screens are full of the economy the kids will be learning how to say “President Romney” on their 2nd day back to school and the willingness of even the truest believer to open up their pocketbooks for the home stretch will be gone.
They aren’t spending their money in the middle of summer in the hopes of defining Romney to an audience that isn’t paying attention, they are spending the money NOW to keep their poll numbers from collapsing prior to the fall campaign season. This isn’t about getting ahead, it’s about treading water long enough for something ANYTHING to come along and save them.
So the Obama team has shot its wad. Its opponent has more ammo and more money now. Romney hasn’t been mortally wounded. And there isn’t money from Obama to keep up the 4-to-1 spending barrage. In fact without it, Obama might well have fallen behind in the race. So the Obama team pleads for money and turns up the volume of the attacks. (After calling Romney a criminal in July, what’s left for September and October?)
Obama is now committed to a strategy that isn’t working. He’s left to unleash his attack dogs and to pray for a miracle.
That’s why Obama’s campaign is doing what they are and why the media is baiting the Romney campaign in the hope they will bite. Even those media outlets that call out the attacks as the BS they are, are still aiding the overall strategy, keep the focus off of the President record and maintaining the bluff.
Unfortunately for the left and Obama they shall discover what each GOP contender has discovered before them while Romney lacks charisma, he has no shortage of patience and single mindeded courage when it comes to following through on a plan.
Obama’s only hope is to keep things close enough for Romney to make a fatal mistake, an Etch a Sketch moment times 20. It’s not much of a plan but it’s the best chance they have.
As for the GOP well the advice is the same it has always been:
The Obama Collapse has been evident for a long time, when it comes, it will be like the Berlin Wall coming down and people who have been doing this a lot longer than me who were talking about the unbeatable Obama re-election will be will talking about how inevitable his fall was.
Think of all the effort, time, money, and resources that Obama has been expending trying to destroy Romney. Yet take a gander at today’s Rasmussen poll and its trendline charts…
There hasn’t been any significant change in the numbers in two months. In fact, if you take away Mitt’s big May 11th bounce, there hasn’t been a significant change in the numbers since the poll began.
The DaTechGuy Fundraiser is in progress, our goal is $3000 and while my fundraising has been less successful than Obama’s ask yourself this question: Who has been telling you about the coming Obama implosion for almost a year?
For details click here for the progress check the thermometer to the right and to kick in hit DaTipJar”.
It was easy for all of us to disappear. My house was in my Mother-in-Law’s name. My cars were registered to my wife. My social security card and driver licenses were phonies. I never voted I never paid taxes. My birth certificate and my arrest sheet that’s all you’d ever have to know I was alive.
Good Fellas 1990
One of the things you find a lot in politics is “battlefield preparation”, the attempt to create a meme and then have it become conventional wisdom. A great example of this was the “Billion Dollar Man” business with the president that bluffed a lot of people into thinking Barack Obama would be invincible.
But now that the days of panhandling at weddings are upon us and the bad economic news continues for the Obama campaign a new set of Memes are being prepared. One set is evidenced by the unified wailing and gnashing of teeth by the left over Pennsylvania’s voter ID law.
Hundreds of thousands of potential voters here were left scrambling in the wake of Pennsylvania’s voter ID law — enough to prompt speculation as to whether the law could change the outcome of the election in November.
But one thing is clear: The law is already having a dramatic effect on how the election is being waged.
While supporters argued that it was a simple measure meant to combat voter fraud, figures released this week show that the law may affect more than 750,000 Pennsylvanians who don’t currently possess identification cards issued by the state Department of Transportation.
The breathless declarations of disenfranchisement of a 3/4 of a million voters are based on the number of people who don’t have drivers licenses, however while the left rages against the machine lets look at what is actually needed in PA for ID off the State’s web site:
Acceptable IDs include:
♦ Photo IDs issued by the U.S. Federal Government or the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania:
Pennsylvania driver’s license or
♦ non-driver’s license photo ID (IDs are valid for voting purposes 12 months past expiration date)
♦ Valid U.S. passport
♦ U.S. military ID – active duty and retired military (a military or veteran’s ID must designate an expiration date or designate that the expiration date is indefinite). Military dependents’ ID must contain an expiration date
♦ Employee photo ID issued by Federal, PA, County or Municipal government ♦ Photo ID cards from an accredited Pennsylvania public or private institution of higher learning ♦ Photo ID cards issued by a Pennsylvania care facility, including long-term care facilities, assisted living residences or personal care homes
SEVEN count them SEVEN different forms of ID acceptable that are not drivers licenses, while you’re digesting that let me note in their eagerness to cry foul they leave out one other item of note:
If you do not bring your ID on Election Day, vote with a provisional ballot. Don’t leave without voting!
So if you don’t have your ID on you or if there is a glitch you can vote with a provisional ballot which can be counted if it can be verified that you are who you say you are and eligible to vote. If that is the case why is there such a fuss?
I suspect the reason is this: When November comes around, explanations are going to be required by those donors who gave and the true believers who worked. It’s going to be a lot easier to sell “voter disenfranchisement” to the liberal base than: “Our candidates and ideas stink.”
At PJ media (via Glenn) Victor Davis Hanson talks about a string of conservative defeats and sounds a warning:
None of us know what November brings. We all imagine the race will be far closer than 2008. We worry that eight years of this administration will institutionalize what we saw during the first four years. That said, every person worried about the direction of the country will have to vote, donate time or money, or offer public or private commentary. We are going to see things in September and October that we have not quite seen before in an election, as our modern Borgia pulls out all the stops to do whatever is necessary to win.
Mr. Hanson is a wise man, his books are spectacular and he’s likely a lot smarter than I am, but take a look at his list of items in his well written post:
1. The so-called Obama crash.
2. The Supreme Court.
4. The Arizona decision.
5. Fast and Furious.
6. The Obama crises.
I look at this list and what I notice is none of these conservative disasters are electoral. It sounds like the Gay Marriage crowd who keep telling us the people are for it while they lose election after election.
In fact if you read his whole piece only his first entry “The Obama Crash” is even remotely a political argument and it’s all about polling….
Review Obama’s bad news of the last 90 days: the Scott Walker victory, the Obama gaffes (the private sector is doing “fine”), the Democratic defections (whether senators and representatives bailing from the convention or smackdowns on Bain Capital from Cory Booker, Bill Clinton, etc.), the Holder mess, the circumvention of Congress by de facto amnesty, the non-ending scandals (Solyndra, Fast and Furious, GSA, Secret Service, etc.), the Putin/Merkel put-down, our new Muslim Brotherhood friend and ally running Egypt, the supposed shortfall in campaign donations, etc. Yet this weekend Obama remains up in the polls and ahead in key swing states. If these “bad” weeks have led to his rise in the polls, what might good weeks do?
There is one real problem with this argument, Polls are not elections, 10 days before Scott Brown’s election we heard this:
let’s not pretend that Republican state senator Scott Brown has any chance of pulling off the monumental upset
All the way till November in 2010 the left was still talking about how this rally or that rally was going to rally the left in a narrative that lasted right up until the Sunday of the election.
And in special elections the left has managed only managed wins in safe areas (Ca-36) and in a three-way race with a faux tea party candidate in the mix (ny-26), while the GOP has not only won when they were supposed to (nv-2) but in districts they had no business winning in. (ny-9).
And let me remind Mr. Hanson that the exit polls showed a dead even race in Wisconsin for Scott Walker just a few hours before he cruised to victory.
Yes we have to work hard, yes we can’t slack and yes I do expect these folks to be fight so dirty as to make a mud hole look like a bidet, but perception doesn’t trump reality. Cripes the president just won the biggest victory of his presidency in the supreme court and vulnerable democrats are still running away. It seems to me the words I used last September still ring true:
While the media will do their best to spin it otherwise Democrats in congress and democrats in states who will have to run on a ticket with this president will see this result and ask: “Am I willing to put my political future in Barack Obama’s hands?”
It’s not going to be close.
Update: Woke up to an Instalanche and 17 comments in the pot I’ll get to you all. In addition to suggesting hitting DaTipJar so I can stop using my wife’s car I strongly suggest clicking on the “Ride Right Through Them” link as you’ll see example after example of what I’ve been talking about for a year.
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Via Lady Liberty 1885 we see that the media has figured out that the occupods who were supposed to be so useful for democrats in 2012 have turned out to be rather less useful than expected:
We didn’t really hear about their arraignment where they were charged with 11 counts each with bail at $1.5 million each, now did we? The national media mostly blew it off and have since swept it under the carpet, but the local media added just the right amount of spin
While the media has decided that occupods are no longer useful, this video shows they still have the idiot part down pat:
Maybe it’s just me but I think it doesn’t help politically to be the allied with people who want to blow up bridges on the national or the state level ( even if you provided the intellectual foundation of their cause ) so the media is making this a non-story but I can see the GOP ads now with images of President Obama, the MSM and Former Obama Official Elizabeth (Dances with Occupiers) Warren extolling the occupy movement, with the “There is nothing wrong with blowing up a bridge” line thrown in.
She was among the first senators to endorse him over presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton in 2008, doing so just five days after Hillary’s big win in New Hampshire. That was a major vote of confidence in him coming from a key swing-state senator and prominent woman pol; Team Clinton “aggressively sought” her endorsement at the time but McCaskill stuck with Hopenchange. As recently as last October, notes National Journal, she was defiant in standing by her buddy O:
If she thought appearing with Obama would win her votes she would be there. If you don’t believe me will you believe the man in charge of electing democrats?
The man responsible for getting Democrats elected to the Congress this fall has a message for his party’s candidates: Stay away from the Democratic National Convention in September.
Listen, you can show me whatever poll you want, you can have any talking head you want pushing whatever message you want in the media but ACTION speak louder than words, and the Actions of the party says one thing to democrats.
It’s now 7:23 a.m. as I type this and I’m watching Morning Joe and I see Chuck Todd making excuses for the democrats and watching Mika go on about the exit polls supporting Obama’s strength in Wisconsin.
Donna Cahill: Who I had some clashes with during the primaries has it exactly right:
Walker won by 8%, but exit polls said 50-50. Why would anyone believe exit poll showing Obama will beat Romney in WI by 9%. #tcot
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) is on his way to victory in the state’s recall election tonight, but looking forward to the fall, the Obama campaign may have something positive to glean from the results.
While the totals have Walker ahead significantly, exit polls suggest he did it with a healthy dose of support from voters who are leaning toward President Obama in the fall.
In fact, exit polls show Walker winning 17 percent of Obama supporters — much higher than Democrat Tom Barrett’s 6 percent of Mitt Romney supporters. Overall, the electorate that turned out today is backing Obama by a significant margin: 52 percent to 43 percent.
If Obama was that popular don’t you think he might have showed up in Wisconsin to campaign against Walker, particularly to appease the Union folk?
Guys we are wandering into Kevin Bacon Territory:
And we are going to flatten them the same way.
Update 4: Instalanches all around, thanks Glenn: I disagree though, we SHOULD get cocky, we just shouldn’t get lazy.
As the room grew steadily more rowdy, I fell into conversation with Ed Hannan, a lawyer from Greendale, who was glad-handing anyone who walked by, which showed considerable pluck, since one of his arms was in a sling. “I am surprised by the margin,” he said. “I expected large amounts of voter fraud, both in Milwaukee and in Dane County. That has had me concerned. Given the level of participation today, I can tell you, I voted at 7:30 this morning, I was number 78 at 7:15 in the morning. That has never been seen before.
“It means the restoration of integrity in government,” he continued. “It means an understanding of the role of government, the limitations of the role of government, and the return of power to the taxpayers, as opposed to union organizers. That is how important this is. Going forward, what we will then see is more legislation that is going to limit the role of government and, more than that, a repeal of laws. For instance, the Minimum Mark-Up Law, a limitation on the environmental laws. We need to have sunset laws on environmental restrictions and the employment-related laws. This election was never about collective bargaining. It was about legislation that removed the state as the collection agency for union dues.”
There was no point in arguing with the man. There didn’t seem even to be any sport in pointing out that the “restoration of integrity in government” that he saw in the results was on behalf of a guy who took to the podium last night three steps ahead of a sitting grand jury. The distance between what I saw and what Ed Hannan saw was too great. I might as well have been talking to him in Finnish.
Read this entire piece and compare it to the Globe piece I quoted above it’s all their, the same dripping contempt for the voters, the same level of denial and the expectation of entitlement.
This is what the left has become, although I suspect it was what was always there but in their anger and frustration they are unable to keep up the mask.
Ok there is only a 1 pt shift, nothing seemingly to write home about. How about commitment to the respective candidates:
Over the last month Romney voters are three to seven points more committed to their candidate, while Obama voters are one to three-points less committed. It’s noteworthy that the drop in commitment is much greater for the president among those actually registered to vote, still the primary season for the GOP just ended so perhaps Romney’s better numbers are not as big a deal. How about the view of congress. That shouldn’t be affected by who is the presidential candidate:
So a GOP controlled congress is one point less popular while a Democrat controlled congress is three points less popular. Interesting. Time to look at the race itself:
Romney remains unchanged at 43 while Obama drops two points from 49-47 leaving a 4 point spread in favor of the president.
So the numbers indicate a slight move away from the democrats and the president vs last month, not really dramatic news…until you look at the May polling sample:
Top Republicans, long privately skeptical about their presidential prospects, are coming around to a surprising new view — that Mitt Romney may well win the White House this November.
Margin-of-error polling, fundraising parity last month, conservative consolidation around Romney and a still-sluggish economy has senior GOP officials increasingly bullish about a nominee many winced over during a difficult primary process.
Well it looks like, as it always does, reality has caught up with the CBS/Times poll:
According to the survey, conducted May 11-13, 46 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Romney, while 43 percent say they would opt for Mr. Obama. Romney’s slight advantage remains within the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus four percentage points
Romney is up with Women? But…but we’ve been told that Romney Rush Limbaugh and the GOP HATE women! I mean Move on just released this ad…
Where is the gender gap? There’s supposed to be an earth shattering gender gap. And for that matter where are the comments on the MoveOn ad on YouTube? Oh sorry they aren’t allowing any.
On Morning Joe today I’ve never seen so many gloomy faces who are not really having an easy time spinning this, particularly when Joe pointed out the crosstabs:
You mean this poll has more democrats than republicans, In fact 70% of the poll (75% unweighted) respondents are not republicans and not only is Ronney leading but he is leading among women?
Chuck Todd as I type right now is on Morning Joe pooh poohing the poll saying he wants to see them shake the pot again. Joe Scarborough has just said people in Chicago is telling them to discount the CBS/NYT poll.
Why is the CBS/NYT embracing reality now? Well it could be to give a sense of urgency to democrats to work harder or it could be that they have decided to embrace reality to increase credibility (good thing I wasn’t drinking when I typed that one).
What I actually think is this move is strategic. It is going to be necessary to have a narrative of the Obama campaign “roaring back” or having momentum. By embracing reality today in August or September they can release a poll with a bigger skew and viola instant Democratic momentum to report!
That plan counts on the average person not paying attention to crosstabs (they’re right) and the situation not getting so far out of hand that Obama’s defeat is a given.
On THAT one I’d be a little worried if I was them.
I’d give the Romney people advice here but they have played their cards so well they certainly don’t need my advice, but for the rest of us who are still worried the message is the same:
“Oh yeah,” Plouffe told pool reporter Amie Parnes of The Hill when asked after arriving in Richmond, Va., whether the campaign was satisfied with the crowd size earlier Saturday in Columbus.
He added that if Mitt Romney’s campaign wanted to have a debate about crowd size, “we’re happy to have that debate.”
I’m sure you are, it’s a lot better than debating the economic policies and the president’s record that led to the 14k crowd in an 18k stadium when your own campaign team said they expected an “overflow crowd.
It’s crash and burn time for the left so my advice is the same:
The Daily Caller has obtained a scrapped sketch critical of President Barack Obama that was intended for airing at the opening of last night’s “Saturday Night Live” on NBC.
In the skit, President Obama addresses Americans soon after the first anniversary of the killing of Osama bin Laden — and he makes sure to remind viewers that all credit for the raid on the terrorist leader’s compound belongs to him.
How about that, NBC parent company of MSNBC was unwilling to show a skit teasing Obama over something unfavorable and hitting Fox & Friends instead. Talk about brave comics.