The White House anticipates a Democratic House will vote to impeach President Trump – but that his opponents won’t be able to muster the 67 Senate votes needed to throw him out of office.
Trump advisors in and outside the White House have begun speculating about scenarios months before voters even go to the polls for November elections that will be critical to what comes next for the Trump presidency.
If Democrats do take control of the chamber – which would fit traditional off-year patterns even as their edge in generic polls has narrowed in recent weeks – a far greater level of oversight and scrutiny is a certainty.
Impeachment also could follow, even as House leaders urge caution in speaking about it.
‘If we lose the House, it’s a given that they’ll try to get a vote to impeach,’ an outside Trump advisor told the Washington Examiner.
White House advisors expect impeachment to prevail in the House, according to the report.
Although a Democratic House could use its majority to vote to impeach Trump, essentially charging him with a high crime or misdemeanor, his fate would be determined by the Senate, where essentially a trial would occur.
House minority leader Nancy Pelosi warned fellow lawmakers against their push for impeachment now, saying it could hurt the party’s chances of taking over.
‘I don’t think we should be talking about impeachment. I’ve been very clear right from the start,’ Pelosi told reporters last month.
Ms. Pelosi demonstrates a dim vestige of cunning, but we call all figure out what will happen if the Democrats regain the House, the Senate or both.
I thought about asking the rhetorical question: which high crime and/or misdemeanor? But then I remembered what Donald Trump’s true crime is in the eyes of the Organized Left: keeping Hillary R. Clinton from becoming President of the United States.
Certain quarters will never forgive DJT for that and that alone. They will continue to look for reasons — reasonable or not — to make him pay. Sad.
Juliette Akinyi Ochieng has been blogging since 2003 as baldilocks. Her older blog is here. She published her first novel, Tale of the Tigers: Love is Not a Game in 2012.
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I turned on CNN to hear what they would have to say after the President’s speech on the Iran deal. They insisted that pulling out of the Iran deal didn’t make us more safe, that it would cause division among the allies and that it would make the world less safe. It was amazing to watch and see, particular Christiane Amanpour who never seems to see standing up to enemies of America as anything but a disaster.
Let me remind all of those people of something that I tweeted out during their coverage:
It’s worth noting that the President made it a point to answer questions concerning the Secretary of State about to land in North Korea within the hour before leaving. This reminded every single viewer on CNN and MSNBC and every other network that chooses to spin this as a disaster, that these same people were insisting that Donald Trump was going to lead us to nuclear war on the Korean peninsular.
Under Donald Trump America is leading and the narratives of our enemies, the media and the left all seem to be hardest hit and the fact that the media and the left have the same reaction as our enemies to this leadership is not a coincidence.
Update: Boy it didn’t take long for Donald Trump to prove my point did it?
The Latest: President Trump says Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is on his way back from North Korea with three American detainees, saying they "seem to be in good health." https://t.co/coiJuYxPJh
2018 has not been kind to our numbers or our traffic, tip jar and particularly subscription side.
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The completely unexpected invitation to Colin Kaepernick to join Kanye West at the White House as part of a summit on race is the worst news the left has seen yet.
Nothing is more likely to cause trouble for Democrats than this.
For the far left, currently energized to vote, particular the Bernie left, that has accepted the idea of Trump as completely unacceptable and any move to “normalize” him as illegitimate Kaepernick turning up will be seen as a betrayal. We can expect attacks on him similar to what happened with Kanye, however because the media has pushed Kaepernick forward as a hero and chunks of the black community has accepted that idea such an attack can’t help but turn off that same black community at a time when the Democrats need every single vote.
However the risks of not attacking are even higher. if by reconciliation Trump can siphon even a small amount of the Black vote away from the left their electoral prospects for the White House in 2020 become zero, particularly if those same black Democrats who have looked the other way when the fix has been in on counts in various urban location decided they’d like to make sure the vote is honest and their Trump votes count.
Of course if Kaepernick doesn’t bother to turn up then you energize the right at the polls which is the one thing that the left doesn’t want and suddenly every Democrat running in a red state has to comment on this in a way that either depresses the left (it’s wrong that he didn’t show up) or excites the right (Kaepernick is a hero for not showing up). Plus it goes without saying that if Kaepernick doesn’t show when invited then he can kiss his slight chance of getting signed goodbye.
That Trump might accomplish what the GOP has dreamed of for decades concerning Black America is almost as astounding as the fact that some in the GOP will never forgive him for getting done what they couldn’t. I must confess I never imagined it when I voted for him.
Back in 2003, when I started blogging, conservatives who are black were very popular. They (we) are now also, because we still are so few in relative numbers.
And, for the most part, we were and are regular citizens. Even the very popular Candace Owens, Diamond and Silk, and Terrance Williams – persons with eloquence and/or humor – began as everyday persons who used technology and their gifts to make their points and express their support for Donald Trump and for conservative ideas.
And this is what makes long-time Trump supporter Kanye West different from the rest of us who refuse to toe the Democrat line. His hip-hop composed platform was already built. All he had to do is climb up and begin to speak. In his case, mere agreement with Owens began an avalanche.
West is no conservative but doesn’t refute the ideology. Refreshingly, he says that he doesn’t know enough about being a conservative to call himself one. I’ve seen that he is getting an introduction to the mighty works of one Thomas F. Sowell. I’m going to suggest this as his starting point.
Many conservative observers have predicted that West will be pushed back into line, and, indeed, the attempts have already been made. A member of the Crips – that long-time terrorizer of law-abiding black and other Southern Californians — has warned West to stay out of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Or else. (West and his wife, Kim Kardashian West, live in Calabasas, CA.)
Politico asked Waters, an outspoken critic of President Trump who advocates for his impeachment, to comment on the president’s recent “bromance with Kanye West.”:
“Kanye West is a very creative young man who has presented some of the most revolutionary material in the African-American community,” she replied. “But we also think that sometimes Kanye West talks out of turn and perhaps sometimes he needs some assistance in helping him to formulate some of his thoughts.”
She said West should think about the impact of his words and “maybe not have so much to say.”
“We don’t think that he actually means to do harm,” she added, “but we’re not sure he really understands the impact of what he’s saying, at the time that he’s saying it and how that weighs on, particularly the African American community — and for young people in general. … And I think maybe he should think twice about politics, and maybe not have so much to say.”
Waters represents the Organized Left; the Crips street and prison gang is one of its organic enforcement arms. And both are indicating something very important: Kanye West is dangerous to the Left. And, it seems that he’s just getting started.
I have been critical of – and cutting about — West and Kardashian West before and I probably will be again, but I have to thank him for having a brain in his head, for learning to use his platform wisely, and for his fearlessness. And whatever one thinks of Kardashian West, she has been doing what any good wife does: ferociously standing by her man.
Someone – Andrew Klavan, I think — once said that culture was a very important aspect of societal change. Well, the West family has certainly been a significant portion of popular culture; yes, most of it bad.
Funny thing about change, though. Sometimes it will happen in the least expected place, to the least expected person.
And, sometimes, it will make things better.
Juliette Akinyi Ochieng has been blogging since 2003 as baldilocks. Her older blog is here. She published her first novel, Tale of the Tigers: Love is Not a Game in 2012.
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Update (DTG) A very welcome Instalanche as 2018 has not been kind to our numbers on the traffic, tip jar and particularly subscription side.
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Michael Corleone:C’mon Frankie… my father did business with Hyman Roth, he respected Hyman Roth. Frank Pentangeli:Your father did business with Hyman Roth, he respected Hyman Roth… but he never *trusted* Hyman Roth!
The Godfather part 2 1974
Trust but verity
We are now seeing what happens when the US refuses to play the useful idiot for North Korea and China. War between North & South Korea may end before War between the MSM & Donald Trump
As long as the US could be counted on to pay every time China asked the North to rattle a saber the status quo was inevitable, but once the Trump administration made it clear that not only were they no longer paying but we were no longer going to be the chumps of China everything changed.
It’s now looking very possible that we will see an actual peace treaty between North and South Korea. If such a peace can be achieved then it should be done and if it IS done then Donald Trump will go down in history and the media and left will go absolutely insane.
All that being said I would be very careful about trusting the North Koreans about anything, particularly if I was the south. Yes it would be nice if the north recognized that they and the south were the same people of the same race and the same culture, but it’s also true that they were the same people, of the same race with the same culture when they first invaded the south in an attempt to impose communist rule.
Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.
As we continue to see the GOP head for the hills while the left braces for what they believe is going to be a banner year it’s worth noting the significant differences between what is expected to be the great blue wave of 2018 to the big red wave that actually happened in 2010.
#1 Obamacare vs the Tax Bill
The Big red wave of 2010 took place after the passage of Obamacare, one of the most unpopular laws in the history of lawmaking by a congress. Democrats were assured by their leadership and the media that one the law was passed it would become more and more popular with the public come election day. That was not the case. Republicans (falsely it turns out) promised to repeal Obama if given the chance and the voters decided to give them that chance.
The most significant law that was passed by this congress was the tax bill of 2017. It was excoriated in the media and we were assured by the Democrats and the left that it’s unpopularity would continue to grow the opposite has been the case. Many Democrats are running on the idea of repealing this bill and raising taxes. I suspect that will not be as popular as repealing Obamacare but in fairness to the Democrats I have no doubt that they will attempt to do so if elected.
#2. The 2002 map vs the 2012 maps
In 2010 the year of the big red wave the Republicans tax ran on the same congressional maps that the Democrats had won big on it 2006 and 2008, however the wave of 2010 extended was not limited to congress but took place over the entire nation giving the GOP an unprecedented number of seats at the state level just before redistricting. This means that the supposed “big blue wave” is going to have to break on a set of maps that specifically favor republicans in the house.
#3 The 2010 Senate Landscape vs 2018 Senate Landscape.
In 2010, the year of the big red wave the split of seats up for election was unremarkable 19 republican seats were up vs 18 democrat seats (counting special elections) but the Democrats had a huge majority (59-41 counting the two “independents” who voted with dems). The end result was the Democrats still held that majority but it shrunk to 52-47. In 2018 the republican majority is only 51-49 an even split in a divided country but only 9 GOP seats are up for re-election this year vs 24 for the Democrats, many of them in states that President Trump won. Democrats to take the majority will have to win 26 races out of 33.
4. 2010 Retirements vs 2018 retirements
In 2010 the retirement ratio of republicans to democrats was 20-17. Once again 17 Democrats are retiring but 38 republicans over 15% of the caucus have decided to give this election a miss. Given that the Democrats only need 24 seats this would seem a great advantage, but given that the GOP base is unhappy with the current congress’ inability to act (in fairness the Senate is mostly to blame here) the removal of incumbents associated with a “do nothing” congress might actually work in the GOP’s favor, or to put it another way, how many seats might the Democrats saved in 2010 if 38 Democrats who voted for Obamacare decided to retire in 2010 rather than run for re-election?
5. The 2010 Economy vs the 2018 Economy
In 2010 the Democrats had overwhelming majorities in both the House and Senate and were presiding over one of the worst economies in living memory and that was before the effects of Obamacare began to take effect. The Democrats had to run blaming said bad economy not on President Obama but on President Bush and the promise of prosperity just around the corner. In 2018 the economy is growing like gangbusters, the strong stock market is way up vs election day 2016 and people surging back into the work. Members of the GOP can run on keeping the good times rolling while Democrats are running on a combination of impeachment and raising taxes, in effect killing the goose that laid the golden eggs. It remains to be seen how popular that message is going to be.
6. The 2010 expectations vs the 2018 expectations.
With a few exceptions like the bloggers on the ground absolutely nobody saw the 2010 red wave coming. The warning shot of the Scott Brown election was considered by many an outlier and the Tea Party movement that drove the 2010 election was discounted by the media which assured us that the passage of Obamacare along with what they claimed was an improving economy would spell good news for Democrats and the party believed it. It wasn’t until the week before the election, sometimes the day before, that the media realized that there was something rotten in Denmark. In 2018 the media, the pundits and even some in the GOP, despite the roaring economy, see trouble ahead. Despite the favorable economy, their money advantage and favorable maps absolutely nobody in the party is taking this election for granted and while you are seeing a few pro-forma statements about retaining the majority you aren’t seeing the overconfidence that the Democrats and media showed in 2010 and 2016 right up to the final week. The GOP sees the rocks ahead with a full six months to do something about it.
7. A Trending down Incumbent in 2010 failing expectations vs an Trending up Incumbent surpassing expectations in 2018
No president was ever elected with Higher expectations than Barack Obama, the expectations for him were so high that he won a Nobel Peace prize simply for existing. 2010, the second year of his presidency was when reality started to creep in.
In 2010 Barack Obama started with an approval rating of 51-43 (Gallup weekly). This was pretty low point for him at the time as he had held a positive approval rating for all of 2009 spending the first half of the year in the 60’s and all but two weeks in the fifties to end it. He held a positive approval rating until the week of June 21st where his rating dropped to 45-46 July. While he would have one “even” week (Sept 6th) he would keep an approval rating he averaged an approval rating was -2.2 (45-47) from that point to election day which was a stark contrast to where he started on election day 2009 (67-13). During this entire time President Obama was constantly lionized by the press.
By contrast no president came to office with lower expectations that Donald Trump. The predictions were dire for the economy and the world with people literally expecting to be put into camps and the media and the world stoking such fears. In 2018 once again reality started to creep into this narrative.
Gallup ended its presidential approval polling in Jan of 2018 however Rasmussen continued daily tracking polls (no option for undecideds like gallup) and also runs an “approval index” based on those who “strongly approve” vs “strongly disapprove”
That “approval index” has not been a positive number since March 3rd 2017 and spent most of 2017 in the high teens to low 20’s. 2018 has seen a different trend President Trump reached single negative digits in feb and has remained in the low teens to high single digits chiefly from the “Strongly approve” number now being consistently in the 30’s rather than the 20’s
In terms of raw approval on election day Donald Trump had 56-44 approval rating. By March 17th he had dropped to 49-51 and with the exception of a single day (April 21st 2017) did not have a disapproval number below 50% and managed to reach as high as 62% disapproval.
In 2018 things have leveled off he has had several days where he has hit 50% approval and this month has averaged a 49-51 split.
And all of this is in the face of a press that has been pounding him from day one.
A closing thought, every point here, from the state of the economy to the maps to the polling numbers are based on either verifiable historical and/or the current numbers, or put simply the facts.
The GOP has reality on its side, can they leave their bubble long enough to see it?
By now all of you are likely sick of my CPAC 2018 posts so you will be pleased to hear that other than a guest post (that needs integration of the graphics and the text) this post will close out my coverage of CPAC 2018.
My primary goal at CPAC was to answer some questions I had about the conservative movement and its relationship with the Trump administration after year 1. Here is what I found:
CPAC is Donald Trump’s event and will remain so as long as he is President and chooses it to be so:
The biggest difference between CPAC 2018 and CPAC 2017 was the fact that it was clearly a Donald Trump crowd that attended. Last year there were plenty of establishment types supporting different candidates and agendas and it wasn’t hard to find folks who didn’t care for Trump among the attendees. This year was very different, except in media the folks who did not support this president were few and far between or for the most part silent. This was a Trump crowd and as long as the president keeps deciding to show up it will remain primarily a Trump crowd and I suspect CPAC will act accordingly in terms of how it carries itself.
Ted Cruz has replaced the Paul Family as the other big presence at CPAC:
When I first came to CPAC it and the straw polls in it were dominated by the Ron Paul (later Rand Paul) folks who generally came en mass to vote for their hero. With Donald Trump in office, Ron Paul now retired and any Paul for President Campaigns on hold for at least a decade there is no sign that the Paul organization is trying to get young people there. However I seemed to constantly run into Ted Cruz folks. This is not a surprise as Senator Cruz remains one of the most popular speakers at the event but also because while President Trump full fury was directed at Senator Cruz during the campaign he has with a few notable exceptions governed to the priorities of the Ted Cruz Crowd. In fact one might even say President Trump has made the Ted Cruz base his base and while I’m sure the Senator and his supporters (full disclosure like myself) would be delighted to see a president Ted Cruz, as long as he is moving our priorities forward they will stick with him.
The single biggest star for Trump are the Tax Cuts:
While I got a lot of assorted answers on what the folks liked best about Donald Trump the overwhelmingly most popular things about him was the tax bill and the economy. The strong Trump economy which is in evidence is and remains his single biggest selling point among the CPAC activists with one exception from a particular sub group…
Evangelicals and Pro-Lifers are with him all the way:
…and that the Pro-Life voters of which I am one of. Pro-life voters are uniformly ecstatic about Donald Trump and the attention his administration has given to our cause. The religious people I talked to are willing to forget Trump’s past as they would any convert who has “seen the light” so to speak. As for the failure to defund planned Parenthood and repeal Obamacare those I questioned on the subject lay the blame squarely at the feet of the GOP in general and Collins, McCain and Murkowski in particular in fact this keeps with a particular pattern…
The GOP not Trump is taking the hit for any failures:
It’s very clear that when it comes to the blame game the CPAC crowd gives Trump very little of it for the various legislative failures. The GOP get the lions share of this and I suspect this might be a real driver during the midterms in decreasing turnout for the party in an election that they need to win there is one exception to this.
The #1 complaint about Donald Trump are the Tweets (particularly in conservative media):
This is a subject where I depart from the majority of both CPAC attendees and particularly my fellows in conservative media. While I and several Trump partisans think the President’s Tweets are an invaluable tool to bypass the media to get his message out (making them react instead of him reacting to them) most of those I talked to dreaded his tweets. It was considered not only a distraction from his agenda but I got a real sense that supporters in conservative media dreaded him saying something untoward that they might be obligated to defend or discount.
The Democrats should have made a DACA Deal while they could:
I asked people about a DACA deal for the wall. While there was a significant amount of folks who disagreed the clear majority of attendees were more than willing to swap DACA for a wall. Once the president speech was given saying DACA was dead, folks concluded that they could get a wall without DACA and that opinion seemed to harden. The wall remains a sine non qua for the Trump folks and if they get it I suspect it would cover a multitude of sins and it seems to me the President would like to do something for the DACA crowd but it’s clearly the opinion of the crew that they don’t need to give an inch.
The CPAC crowd is more optimistic about the midterms that the party as a whole:
A lot has happened in the intervening two months but at the time of CPAC with the tax cuts starting to kick in the crowd there were feeling pretty good about the midterms. While the President warned about complacency it seems that warning wasn’t enough to get the optimism out of them but if the GOP wants to overcome the energized Democrats they will need more than a vague confidence of victory.
The CPAC crowd wants Trump to continue being Trump:
The final question I asked all there was this: How can President Trump help the GOP win in the midterms, the answer was almost unanimous: Keep doing what you’re doing. Trump votes like the Trump policies and as long as the economy keeps booming and jobs and wages continue to rise there will be voters who will think twice before turning to the party promising to raise their taxes.
The real question is this: Are the Trump voters energized enough to overcome both energized Democrats anxious to vote and Democrat machines that now know where they need to steal said votes? The answer alas wasn’t at CPAC, it’s in the individual districts and I think the it’s going to come down to the warning that the President gave about complacency. Fortunately for the GOP the Democrats are making it very hard to pretend that there are no consequences for defeat.
The second question is this, If the Trump votes aren’t energized enough to hold the house, who will get the blame? The media and the establishment will certainly blame Trump but who would the CPAC activist blame? The answer to that question will determine what CPAC 2019 looks like.
DaTechGuy at CPAC 2018 The story (blogged) so far: