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Over the last 18 months we have heard a lot about the “Arab Spring” and the coming of “Democracy” to places that have not seen it.

Many around the world celebrated these changes. When you considering how horrible some of those deposed were, that’s to be expected.

The media and the left particularly where flush, especially when the pro-US Mubarak was removed. I suspect his hard-line on Hamas and the Muslim brotherhood combined with the American alliance caused him to be particularly hated by righteous leftists everywhere. For them his removal was a moment of true joy and fulfillment, and if the odd female reporter had to suffer rape assault (along with plenty of other women who you will never see on a TV) well, that was the price of freedom and still worth a huzzah.

Fast forward a bit and we are more than two weeks into a second uprising in Egypt after the newly elected Muslim Brotherhood president Morsi took dictatorial powers for himself less than 24 hours after he won praise for taking the heat off the Muslim Brotherhood for not fighting Israel brokering a cease-fire between Israel & Hamas.

There are not only no cheers this time but it seems the western media in general and the US media in particular find this revolution unimportant and those fighting it not worth the trouble to cover.

Forgetting all the moral questions in terms of supporting self-determination, kowtowing to Islamists out of fear and covering the rear ends of people like Obama & Clinton who helped these thugs in the first place, This is a crime against the news industry because in my opinion this revolt is the single most significant event so far of the 21st century possibility including 9/11.

If September 11th was the high water mark showcasing the power of Islamists to the world this 2nd revolt in Egypt could be the catalyst of their ultimate destruction.

Consider: One of the reasons why Islamists are so successful is the Mafia like old world family connection. Think about it.

Lets say you are a Muslim who got sick of the rules, the repression and the life and decided to go west. Suddenly after you’ve finally established a life away from all of that you find a Saudi funded Mosque pushing the very thing you are trying to escape in your area. What do you do? You were already a part of a small minority in the west before 9/11 and afterwards a distrusted one. If you don’t tow the line word gets back to the old country, cousins, uncles and family have trouble, maybe fatal trouble, and that’s assuming they aren’t the ones outraged at you.

On top of that you add the the hypersensitivity of the media to any critique of Muslims. The person who doesn’t want to go along with pressure from the local mosque and community knows that they are not going to get any sympathy from The media.  If the honor killings, the stoning of Americans in America and Molly Norris can’t get press, threats, intimidation and worse from radical Islamists in the community won’t, particularly when there are organizations like CAIR keeping the pressure on.

Now take that and multiply it by 1,000,000 and you have the situation in Egypt, in Gaza, in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere.

If with the protections that the laws of United States and Western Nations provide, follows of Islam feel intimidated, how must worse must it be is when you live in a nation where a person can disappear without effort, where the authorities are used to being obeyed, where the press isn’t free, where you find yourself monitored and where the religious, social and cultural norms are against you to the point where even if people don’t take part in acts against you, they either approve or understand?

This is the true reason for the stagnation in the Arab World, it’s why the entire area has been one a giant feudal enclave for decades.

None if this is possible without the fear and the belief that things will never change and unless you give in, you will be crushed.

Terrorism is a real threat in the west but totalitarian terror is something these people have lived with for their entire lives as a matter of routine.

Now picture, just for a moment, the image of the Muslim Brotherhood being stopped, successfully defied by the people of Egypt, a people who have said enough, a people so angry and fed up that the normal terror, the normal fear and the normal intimidation and somehow even blaming it on the Jews or Christians doesn’t work?

Suddenly the wall comes down, the perception of invincibility is gone and worst of all this happens in the single most important Islamic country in the world fueled by the acts of ordinary Egyptians.

If this revolution succeeds even slightly, say with the meaningless replacement of Morsi with another Muslim Brotherhood hack, that success will be an earthquake equivalent to Lech Walesa first day in the shipyard in Poland standing up and fighting.

It took a decade for Walesa’s activism to bear fruit and another decade for the freedom of Poland and the nations behind the Iron curtain to follow.  It might take ten times that in a culture that doesn’t have the same history for this to bear fruit.

But if it does it will do so for followers of Islam far beyond the borders of Egypt.  It has the potential to change the world.

The Muslim Brotherhood understand this. It’s why they’re fighting so hard and using all of their influence to keep this a non story in the west.  They don’t want to risk the protestors on the streets of Cairo and elsewhere to get the same inspiration that Soviet refusenik Natan Sharansky and other got when their stories were told in the west.

If they lose this fight it could be the beginning of the end and the Islamic world will never be the same.

How can any person who seriously gives themselves the title of “journalist” let this story go?

You wouldn’t like her when she’s angry:

At this point, femisogynists would have you believe that a woman is safer in a war zone, amidst religious radicals who have no regards for human rights, than on a college campus. They would have you believe that the Duke Lacrosse Players are more of a threat to women than the men who raped Lara Logan. Rather than point out the obvious: that a woman in some foreign countries is taking a much bigger risk than men are – they pretend that women don’t get raped overseas, that the West is so bad that anywhere else isn’t any worse. “******* pathetic” does not even cover the way I feel about leftist rape apologists.

The “*****” are mine of course. I approve of the sentiment as doe Miss Attila, but not the language.

Bob Belvedere was really smart to get her as a guest blogger.

As you might have heard something horrible happened to Lara Logan in Egypt.

Lara Logan was attacked and sexually assaulted last Friday in Cairo’s Tahrir Square while filming a piece for “60 Minutes.”

The CBS report has the following details:

In the crush of the mob, she was separated from her crew. She was surrounded and suffered a brutal and sustained sexual assault and beating before being saved by a group of women and an estimated 20 Egyptian soldiers. She reconnected with the CBS team, returned to her hotel and returned to the United States on the first flight the next morning. She is currently home recovering.

Ace of spades expressed outrage:

…if I am not weary of a barbaric desert nomad culture of rape and outrage while carrying around a ton of chip-on-the-shoulder arrogance-hiding-profound-insecurity about it all.

Nir Rosen of NYU and the far left former embedded reporter for the Taliban decided that this was a good time to vent his spleen against this “war monger

The initial tweet by Rosen stated, “Lara Logan had to outdo Anderson. Where was her buddy McCrystal.” From this tweet he went further, writing that he would have been amused if Anderson Cooper had also been sexually assaulted.

“Yes yes its wrong what happened to her. Of course. I don’t support that. But, it would have been funny if it happened to Anderson too,” wrote Rosen.

The two comments gave way to more. Rosen called Logan a “war monger” and expressed doubt that she was actually assaulted.

“Jesus Christ, at a moment when she is going to become a martyr and glorified we should at least remember her role as a major war monger” wrote Rosen.

“Look, she was probably groped like thousands of other women, which is still wrong, but if it was worse than [sic] I’m sorry.”

Usually when someone from the far left says something disgusting it is ignored expect by us on the right like the National Review :

But let’s just remember one thing going forward: Nir Rosen believed this was the right moment to let the world know that he “ran out of sympathy for her” and that we should “remember her role as a major war monger” and that we “have to find humor in the small things.”

Jim didn’t expect much from NYU on this but this time they acted:

From Karen J. Greenberg, Executive Director, Center on Law and Security

Nir Rosen is always provocative, but he crossed the line yesterday with his comments about Lara Logan. I am deeply distressed by what he wrote about Ms. Logan and strongly denounce his comments. They were cruel and insensitive and completely unacceptable. Mr. Rosen tells me that he misunderstood the severity of the attack on her in Cairo. He has apologized, withdrawn his remarks, and submitted his resignation as a fellow, which I have accepted. However, this in no way compensates for the harm his comments have inflicted. We are all horrified by what happened to Ms. Logan, and our thoughts are with her during this difficult time.

Why did NYU decide to act when Jim didn’t think they would? I’d like to think it is because they don’t like this kind of thing from their folks, however I suspect it is because Nir made one mistake, his choice of targets. Logan is a member not of the right or of Fox news but of the MSM, CBS to be exact.

The media will tolerate an awful lot of stuff if thrown against someone of the right, but if you go after one of their own (and until and unless she goes to Fox News she will be considered on of their own) they will object loudly. Thus NYU does the right thing and the smart thing and Nir Rosen is gone.

If you are a fan of Rosen I wouldn’t feel too sorry, it won’t be long before the media moves on and Mr. Rosen is once again teaching our youth on the evils of America.

Way to go Mr. President not only are you fumbling the ball but you actually have managed to make Mubarek a “hero” for staying.

Nothing raises the profile of an Arab leader more than poking an US president in the eye.

Of course James Clapper actually saying that the Muslim Brotherhood is “largely secular” was nonsense too but at least that was simple stupidity in testimony, saying stuff like the publicly just makes us look like dopes.

Now if the administration’s goal was to make sure Mubarek stays without making it known that it was the goal then it was brilliant but my God it’s the late 70’s all over again. It’s also interesting to note that if you check out Memeorandum not a single headline hits the White House for making dopes of themselves, but its moves like this that validate Trumps statements on the administration.

Yglesias links and quotes Ayaan Hirsi Ali on what is coming in Egypt

Ex-Muslim Ayaan Hirsi Ali warns us to be very afraid of the Muslim Brotherhood coming to power in Egypt. And maybe she’s right. But it’s difficult to take her word for it. After all, she thinks that Islam in general needs to be extirpated from the planet:

He then quotes her piece, bolding certain bits:

“I’ll tell you why: because Islam is the new fascism. Just like Nazism started with Hitler’s vision, the Islamic vision is a caliphate – a society ruled by Sharia law – in which women who have sex before marriage are stoned to death, homosexuals are beaten, and apostates like me are killed. Sharia law is as inimical to liberal democracy as Nazism. Young Muslims need to be persuaded that the vision of the Prophet Mohammed is a bad one, and you aren’t going to get that in Islamic faith schools.”

Now of course bolding a piece is meant to draw your eyes to the bolded section and to avoid the unbolded sections. Yglesias having a liberal audience is trying to stress Ali “intolerance”. How dare she be intolerant of Islam. Now lets look at the same piece with different words bolded:

I’ll tell you why: because Islam is the new fascism. Just like Nazism started with Hitler’s vision, the Islamic vision is a caliphate – a society ruled by Sharia law – in which women who have sex before marriage are stoned to death, homosexuals are beaten, and apostates like me are killed. Sharia law is as inimical to liberal democracy as Nazism. Young Muslims need to be persuaded that the vision of the Prophet Mohammed is a bad one, and you aren’t going to get that in Islamic faith schools.”

Now I would think that these things about Islam and Sharia law would be significant to liberals. After all if I as a believing Roman Catholic am repressive because I oppose sex before marriage, gay marriage and believe in God, how much more would they oppose Sharia, which stones women, beats (and kills) gays and slays apostates.

But we can’t stress these facts, because it promotes “intolerance of Islam”. Maybe it’s just me but I think we shouldn’t tolerate Sharia law, stoning of women, beating of gays, and killing of apostates.

Ayaan Hirsi Ali “intolerance” of Islam is based on a standard of Islam’s actions. Yglesias critique of Ali and defense of Islam is based on a standards of her thoughts.

That to me is the perfect illustration of how liberalism works.

after all that’s what Jihad means isn’t it?

In Tehrir square in Cairo, many protesters were charging and screaming at supporters of Mubarak, calling for their death and a “jihad” against Mubarak and anyone who even seems to be supporting him. This is most likely because of the radical Islamic group “Muslim Brotherhood,” which is one of the major players striving for power in Egypt.

This comes hot on the heels of upper Muslim Brotherhood officials calling for a war against Israel and the closure of the Suez Canal:

Robert Stacy McCain notes another thing:

When the “Arab street” does the same thing in Cairo that we’ve seen them do in Jerusalem and Gaza, it’s not racist to interpret today’s violence in terms of a historic pattern of mob violence. And the fact that you, Mr. Moral Superiority, are cheering for the immediate overthrow of Hosni Mubarak doesn’t make me a thought-criminal for suggesting that maybe we don’t want to be so hasty.

For crying out loud, they were actually swooping down on Tahrir Square on horses and camels! At what point do stereotypes stop being stereotypes and instead become, y’know, facts?

…and points out what the “loyal opposition” looks like:

And, honestly, I thought Obama’s speech Tuesday night was just about right: He made it clear he was angry at Mubarak, but explicitly spoke of the “aftermath of these protests.” In other words: OK, you’ve had your protest rallies, Mubarak’s on his way out, “free and fair elections,” yadda yadda — now go back home and stop distracting us the week before Super Bowl Sunday.

Trust me: The next-to-last thing I want is for Barack Obama to be able to claim credit for a foreign-policy success. But the last thing in the world I want is for Islamic extremists to take over a country with 75 million people and modern military weapons, sitting right next door to Israel — a scenario that could lead to Armageddon.

Stacy is right, we are better off for this president to do the right thing and have it work out then to score political points. Of course as Bob Belvedere points out part of that component is actually doing the right thing:

As I have said before, Julius Obamacus Nero Caesar having abandoned his role as Leader Of The Free World has fueled the ambitions of the evil forces that seek to dominate it. That fuel will continue to power more and more violence as it feeds the hubris of those who would initiate a new Dark Age.

and Newsbusters reports that even some on MSNBC are less impressed:

It was 16 degrees warmer in my upstate New York town this morning than it was in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. If any further portent of the apocalypse is necessary, consider that on his MSNBC show this evening, Cenk Uygur compared Barack Obama to Ronald Reagan . . . and clearly came down on the side of Ronaldus Maximus.

The subject was Egypt. Uygur played the clip of Reagan’s immortal “tear down this wall,” and contrasted it with Obama’s wan words on the need for “orderly transition” in Egypt.

But according to Robert Springborg it’s moot.

While much of American media has termed the events unfolding in Egypt today as “clashes between pro-government and opposition groups,” this is not in fact what’s happening on the street. The so-called “pro-government” forces are actually Mubarak’s cleverly orchestrated goon squads dressed up as pro-Mubarak demonstrators to attack the protesters in Midan Tahrir, with the Army appearing to be a neutral force. The opposition, largely cognizant of the dirty game being played against it, nevertheless has had little choice but to call for protection against the regime’s thugs by the regime itself, i.e., the military. And so Mubarak begins to show us just how clever and experienced he truly is. The game is, thus, more or less over.

And lets not forget exactly what these guys are:

He said that only America can help at this point by fully backing the demonstrators against Mubarak. “Does America stand for its ideals or does it stand for its interests?” he asked. On that score, he doesn’t like Obama. But guess what? He liked George Bush!

And apparently sometime after this interview Sandmonkey was arrested.

For myself I’ve already pointed out what is important anything that gets us there is good enough for now, but only for now.

…since instead of Iranian TV this one was on CNN proper:

The Blaze caught this and, as they explain, the truth-telling starts at about the 1:30 mark, including a woman who says of Hosni Mubarak:

“All the people hate him. He’s supporting Israel! Israel is our enemy. We don’t like him … Israel and America supported him. We hate them all!”

Then, at 2:20, the guy shoves himself in front of the camera and says:

“It is revolution, yes, but who supports Hosni Mubarak? The United States of America, British government, German government, French government . . . The people in Egypt, we got to be free. . . . We got to go free Palestinians. We got to go destroy Israel. The country that controls [unintelligible] is Israel.”

Nope nothing to see here. I suspect we won’t see this repeated on CNN or MSNBC. You can count on Rush to play this today.

If you want to know why supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood want us to stop talking about them. This is why:

Mohamed Ghanem, one of the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, calls Egypt to stop pumping gas to Israel and prepare the Egyptian army for a war with it’s eastern neighbor.

Speaking with Iranian television station Al-Alam, Mohamed Ghanem blamed Israel for supporting Hosni Mubarak’s regime. Ghanem also said that the Egyptian police and army won’t be able to stop the Muslim Brotherhood movement.

But don’t worry about it, because it was said on Iranian TV as far as our media is concerned it doesn’t count.

Israel however is unlikely to ignore this and will unless they are idiots, strike preemptively.

This is the internet age, we do not have the luxury of ignorance. If we ignore it then it will be our own fault.

Update: If people don’t know it won’t be because Stacy McCain didn’t mention it.

There seem to be a lot of “interesting coincidences” going on with Egypt

Item: Today on WCRN there was an interesting caller linking the revolt in Egypt with the attacks on Coptic Churches in Egypt.

Frankly this hadn’t hit me before but it makes a lot of sense. The government came out strong against the attacks with members of the Mubarak family going so far as to be human shields during Church services.

Less than 4 weeks later they are calling for the fall of the dictator.

Item: Take a look at who is supporting revolt actively in Egypt:

The question is begged: What have Obama’s allies Ayers, Dohrn and Code Pink taught the Muslim Brotherhood and other anti-Mubarak organizations in Egypt about using protests, riots and the modern social media to coordinate their actions to undermine the Mubarak regime?

Being that they have common enemies–the United States, Israel, and governements allied with them–it is understandable that they would be allies. It must give them encouragement that President Obama has yet to disavow Jodie Evans and Code Pink, but instead continues to do business with them as Evans and Code Pink act as conduits between terrorists and Obama.

I’m sure when you read the whole piece you will dismiss as just coincidence the connections between Hamas, Code pink and Bill Ayers.

Item: It loses something in translation:

There you have it: the velvet glove with the word “Freedom”; the steel fist with the words “Make Ready” with its well-known Quranic reference. Actually, not steel fist – steel swords, crossed. The Muslim Brotherhood.

It is not “freedom” that they intend to bring to Egypt – or to anywhere else.

But just wait for the CIA, the State Department, the Administration, the mainstream media, and so many others to tell you the Muslim Brotherhood is all about little Aisha and freedom, and if you question them, you’re an Islamophobe (Shariah definition of “Islamophobe”: Blasphemer or Insulter of Islam, punishable by death in an Islamic state).

The Language barrier has apparently been a positive thing for the Muslim Brotherhood and they are very keen to preserve it.

And as Yid with Lid reports we all know who is behind this don’t we:

In a column published today on Media Matters political correction site, MJ Rosenberg claimed that the current Egyptian crisis was the fault of AIPAC and the “Israel Lobby.” For those of you who have lived on a different planet till today, “Israel Lobby” is a polite way of saying “Jews.” It is based on the old anti-Semitic canard that it is the Jews who control the United States government.

It doesn’t matter how you slice it the Anti-Semites will always manage to blame the Jews for everything.

Egyptians, like all people deserve the right to have leaders who govern by the consent of the governed. We need to keep our eyes wide open to make sure that this actually becomes the fact, rather than being governed by an Iranian or Islamic state.

Turned on CNN this morning just before 7 a.m. and a woman was being interviewed on CNN concerning the revolt in Egypt. I didn’t catch the name since I had literally just walked down the stairs and turned on my PC.) There was a very telling moment, at the end of the interview where the CNN folks asked about the Muslim brotherhood. The response was VERY defensive.

“The Muslim brotherhood is not taking part as a movement” She stressed that the brotherhood was talking part only as “individuals” and called on media not to stress them.

I found that very interesting considering this story:

The leader of Jordan’s powerful Muslim Brotherhood warned Saturday that unrest in Egypt will spread across the Mideast and Arabs will topple leaders allied with the United States.

Hammam Saeed’s comments were made at a protest outside the Egyptian Embassy in Amman, inspired by massive rallies in neighboring Egypt demanding the downfall of the country’s longtime president, Hosni Mubarak.

SISU is going long on this theme.

linking our own tweet (above) a layman’s take on the ongoing Middle East turmoil based upon keeping our virtual ear to the ground in the last period of time:

This is what’s really happening. Muslim Brotherhood poised to co-opt restless populations thoughout Middle East.

“Yes, you are right,” McCotter direct-messaged back. We’re inclined to take the Michigan Congressman’s well-considered assessments seriously.

As I type FOX is on with Lisa Daftari is not ignoring the dangers of an 1979 style revolution when good intentions become co-opted by a more powerful organized group. (forget 1979 think of 1918 in Russia and the blood that followed for nearly a century)

John Bolton continues:

This is a protest that may have been percolated by the Muslim Brotherhood. We all know President Mubarak of Egypt is a dictator, but to compare this protest to the Green Revolution may be foolish.

And lets not forget what polls said in 2007:

In a rigorously conducted face-to-face University of Maryland/ WorldPublicOpinion.org interview survey of 1000 Egyptian Muslims conducted between December 9, 2006 and February 15, 2007, 67% of those interviewed-more than 2/3, hardly a “fringe minority”-desired this outcome (i.e., “To unify all Islamic countries into a single Islamic state or Caliphate”). The internal validity of these data about the present longing for a Caliphate is strongly suggested by a concordant result: 74% of this Muslim sample approved the proposition “To require a strict [emphasis added] application of Shari’a law in every Islamic country.”

That is scary. Almost as scary as the concept that Robert Stacy McCain is linking…Robert Fisk?

Cairo now changes from joy to sullen anger within minutes. Yesterday morning, I walked across the Nile river bridge to watch the ruins of Mubarak’s 15-storey party headquarters burn. In front stood a vast poster advertising the benefits of the party – pictures of successful graduates, doctors and full employment, the promises which Mubarak’s party had failed to deliver in 30 years – outlined by the golden fires curling from the blackened windows of the party headquarters. Thousands of Egyptians stood on the river bridge and on the motorway flyovers to take pictures of the fiercely burning building – and of the middle-aged looters still stealing chairs and desks from inside.

Yet the moment a Danish television team arrived to film exactly the same scenes, they were berated by scores of people who said that they had no right to film the fires, insisting that Egyptians were proud people who would never steal or commit arson. This was to become a theme during the day: that reporters had no right to report anything about this “liberation” that might reflect badly upon it. Yet they were still remarkably friendly and – despite Obama’s pusillanimous statements on Friday night – there was not the slightest manifestation of hostility against the United States. “All we want – all – is Mubarak’s departure and new elections and our freedom and honour,” a 30-year-old psychiatrist told me. Behind her, crowds of young men were clearing up broken crash barriers and road intersection fences from the street – an ironic reflection on the well-known Cairo adage that Egyptians will never, ever clean their roads.

I don’t and never have trusted Robert Fisk but he is actually there first hand (talk about a windfall for an international reporter!) so one has to respect that and give his reports the respect that first hand reporting calls for. Yet lets take a peek at once other paragraph from this story:

Their crews, in battledress and smiling and in some cases clapping their hands, made no attempt to wipe off the graffiti that the crowds had spray-painted on their tanks. “Mubarak Out – Get Out”, and “Your regime is over, Mubarak” have now been plastered on almost every Egyptian tank on the streets of Cairo. On one of the tanks circling Freedom Square was a senior member of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Beltagi. Earlier, I had walked beside a convoy of tanks near the suburb of Garden City as crowds scrambled on to the machines to hand oranges to the crews, applauding them as Egyptian patriots. However crazed Mubarak’s choice of vice-president and his gradual appointment of a powerless new government of cronies, the streets of Cairo proved what the United States and EU leaders have simply failed to grasp. It is over.

It’s classic Fisk to hit the US on this. But before people get delirious about the future need to read this Michael Totten post from 2005 while he was there with Egyptian blogger Big Pharaoh:

“My biggest fear,” he continued, “is that if the Muslim Brotherhood rules Egypt we will get Islamism-lite, that they won’t be quite bad enough that people will revolt against them. Take bars, for example. Most Egyptians don’t drink, so they won’t mind if alcohol is illegal. The same goes for banning books. Most Egyptians don’t read. So why should they care if books are banned? Most women wear a veil or a headscarf already, so if it becomes the law hardly anyone will resist.”

“How many people here think like you do?” I asked him.

“Few,” he said. “Very few. Less than ten percent probably.”

What was the future he saw:

I asked Big Pharaoh what he thought would happen if Egypt held a legitimate free and fair election instead of this bullshit staged by Mubarak.

“The Muslim Brotherhood would win,” he said. “They would beat Mubarak and the liberals.”

I was afraid he was going to say that.

“I’ve had this theory for a while now,” I said. “It looks like some, if not most, Middle East countries are going to have to live under an Islamic state for a while and get it out of their system.”

Big Pharaoh laughed grimly.

“Sorry,” I said. “That’s just how it looks.”

He buried his head on his arms.

“Take Iranians,” I said. “They used to think Islamism was a fantastic idea. Now they hate it. Same goes in Afghanistan. Algerians don’t think too much of Islamism either after 150,000 people were killed in the civil war. I hate to say this, but it looks like Egypt will have to learn this the hard way.”

“You are right,” he said. “You are right. I went to an Egyptian chat room on the Internet and asked 15 people if they fasted during Ramadan. All of them said they fasted during at least most of it. I went to an Iranian chat room and asked the same question. 14 out of 15 said they did not fast for even one single day.”

How many will end up dying and what kind of war will ensue while the under 30’s learn this lesson?

Meanwhile Joe Scarborough notes something on Twitter.

The Luxor attack and its aftermath explains why the Muslim Brotherhood has gone to great lengths to take no credit for this uprising.

I think its more than that, I think that given the experience of the Iranian revolution and what it produced, and the reality of Islamic terror it is impossible to not understand what an Islamic state would mean.

What is the best move? I’m very torn. I’ve always maintained that people have the right to be wrong. If the people actually WANT this kind of thing what can you do? I think in the end you have to let the people learn this the hard way and deal with things as they come. The best hope is that Egyptians learn from the Iranian mistake. The Egyptian people have the right to make their own choices, and they will also reap what they sow. Part of being free is living with the consequences of your decisions.

  • There are consequences for supporting Islamic terror.
  • There are consequences for going to war with Israel.
  • There are consequences for choosing to be an enemy of the US.
  • There are consequences for supporting Iran
  • There are consequences for closing the Suez Canal

And that doesn’t even touch the consequences internally, but those internal consequences are on them.

Do we have a strong or wise enough administration in the White House to make that case without trouble?

Update: missed Michael’s link, silly me, put in now.

We haven’t had the Arthur Carter Watch for quite a while but this is the ultimate Arthur Carter Moment.

You might recall Jimmy Carter and the transformation of Iran from a stable US ally to an Islamic state that has been the source trouble worldwide for decades.

Now in Egypt we have lets face it a Dictator albeit a friendly one to the US, that has repressed free speech to a degree, and played both ends against the middle.

If there was ever a test of this president, if he is going to be Jimmy Carter or Chester Arthur it is now.

If the Islamic Brotherhood ends up taking over it would be the final irony of Barack Obama the replacement of an American Ally with an Islamic state. It would be the ultimate Jimmy Carter moment. Some in government are already worrying along these lines.

Pam Geller notices one other oddity:

Interesting, too, how everyone, even Obama, is talking about Egypt’s uprising. And yet Iran experienced an even greater people’s movement and Ahmadinejad and the mullahs crushed it with a violence incomprensible to the West. And yet nobody was talking about it. Nobody. There are tens of thousands in the street of Egypt, there were millions in the streets of Iran and they were raped, tortured, publicly hanged, slaughtered because they marched for freedom.

Obama pretended it wasn’t happening. Media too.

Well after all Iran is on the other side and a revolt there affirms what GWB said for years. A revolt in Egypt doesn’t so a revolt is a good thing to the left. And by an odd coincidence there are now protests in Jordan too. What do these two countries have in common? Peace with Israel.

If you see protesters in the US supporting change in Egypt, change in Jordan, but no word about Lebanon where Iran and Hezbollah are calling the shot that will tell you everything about what is going on, it’s also noteworthy to note this via the Lonely Conservative:

Iranian leaders and their state-run media love instability in the Middle East as long as it’s not happening in Iran. They’re gleeful over the unrest in Egypt, according to CNS News.

The Tehran Times, Iran Daily and Resalat newspapers were among those that led their Thursday editions with the Egypt story, using headlines like “Spirit of Tunisia comes to Egypt,” “Egyptians demand end to Mubarak rule” and “Intensification of public protests against Mubarak regime.”

The Tehran Times describes itself as the mouthpiece of the Islamic revolution, Iran Daily is affiliated with the official state IRNA news agency, and Resalat is a conservative daily supportive of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

If Iran is backing revolution in Egypt that adds up to big trouble for the rest of us.

Of course the ideal is a democratic Egypt that is allied to the US and friendly to Israel. The odds of that are slim to impossible.

The disaster result is an Islamic state, run by the Muslim Brotherhood and ready to go to war with Israel. That is disaster and will mean more trouble than anyone can imagine.

Looking at the reaction of the protesters and their reactions, it appears that the military is a more respected than the police. Mubarek is in his 80’s he doesn’t have much more time in charge anyway, and yet you also don’t want to see a repressive government that abuses the Egyptian people. Threading the needle is to give a government that represent Egyptians without an unfriendly power.

For an experienced and strong leader with a discreet diplomatic corps and wise advisers it would be a tough spot requiring a delicate touch.

Unfortunately we have the Obama administration. I don’t envy them this problem. I would suggest a public statement opposing violence and the aspirations of the Egyptian people while privately doing working a deal to:

  1. Keep Iran and China out
  2. Keep Islamists down and out.
  3. Guarantee basic rights for Egyptians
  4. Maintain Peace with Israel
  5. Protect open access to the Suez canal

Remember its not the name of the guy or guys in charge that matters in Egypt, it’s the goals.

If there was ever a time for this president to be Arthur instead of Carter this is it. I wish the administration luck, they’ll need it.

 

Update:  Stacy makes his case for targeted batons, I’m not buying that but I do buy the update:

A former adviser to the Obama administration argues that the Muslim Brotherhood “should not be seen as inevitably our enemy” — which is what you’d expect an Obama adviser to say, I suppose — but Thomas Joscelyn isn’t buying it:

Hosni Mubarak’s regime is no friend of freedom, even though it is certainly an ally against al Qaeda.
In all likelihood, an Egypt dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood (if that is how the turmoil plays out) would be neither.

Radio reports stated that Nobel winner Mohamed El Baradei has returned to Egypt

Opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate who formerly headed the U.N. nuclear regulatory agency, has returned to Egypt in a move expected to increase political pressure on President Hosni Mubarak as a new wave of nationwide protests are called for Friday.

He has promptly been placed under house arrest:

Tens of thousands of anti-government protesters poured into the streets of Egypt Friday, stoning and confronting police who fired back with rubber bullets and tear gas in the most violent and chaotic scenes yet in the challenge to President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year rule. One protester was killed and even a Nobel Peace laureate was placed under house arrest after joining demonstrations.

Mubarek has not been informed by his good friend Joe Biden when his state dinner will be held nor has he announced the music.

Good think we have Obama and Biden and not McCain and Palin handling it right?

I was always a fan of political cartoons and when Ferdinand Marcos was in the process of being overthrown the White House and the president made some intemperate statements in support of Marcos and suggesting that both sides in the Philippines were at fault in the People power revolution.

I remember in particular a Pat Oliphant cartoon where the line kept coming up “Marcos is a cheap crook change the position boss”

Well Joe Biden has decided to interject himself in a rather foolish way into the Egypt mess:

Ahead of a day that could prove decisive, NewsHour host Jim Lehrer asked Biden if the time has “come for President Mubarak of Egypt to go?” Biden answered: “No. I think the time has come for President Mubarak to begin to move in the direction that – to be more responsive to some… of the needs of the people out there.”

Asked if he would characterize Mubarak as a dictator Biden responded: “Mubarak has been an ally of ours in a number of things. And he’s been very responsible on, relative to geopolitical interest in the region, the Middle East peace efforts; the actions Egypt has taken relative to normalizing relationship with – with Israel. … I would not refer to him as a dictator.”

I don’t think Pat will be drawing a cartoon hitting Biden anytime soon, meanwhile in the real world:

In Desperation Move, Egyptian Regime Shuts Down Access to Iowahawk

Also, the entire freaking Internet:

[I]n an action unprecedented in Internet history, the Egyptian government appears to have ordered service providers to shut down all international connections to the Internet.

When you have a government cutting off all internet and all phone the worm is not only turning but it is doing somersaults. This is going to tip huge and if we are on the wrong side of it we will be in trouble.

Meanwhile the Wikileaks are doing their best to help us out aren’t they by leaking communications.

Aren’t you glad we have a president Obama instead of a president McCain to deal with this issue? Aren’t you glad we have Biden speaking out on Egypt rather than Palin for the country? Maybe Pat will draw a cartoon about that.

The real question is not if the revolt will work. (I say it will) it is who will be taking it over once it is all done.

Things continue to get more and more volatile in Egypt. Egypt has had a long-term relationship with the US and has received Billions each year as a bribe to keep the peace with Israel US ally. Egypt has also been a dictatorship that Mubarek and his clan has ruled for 40 years and this rule has reflected poorly on the US.

There is no question that the Egyptian people deserve to be ruled by leaders of their own choice. There is also no question that repressive government is unjust. There have been plenty of strategic reasons to have a good relationship with Egypt (the Suez canal comes immediately to mind) no matter who rules it but the US will be making a large mistake if it backs a repressive regime vs the will of the people.

The big question remains unanswered. If Mubarek falls what replaces him? If it is another strong man then we are right back where we were waiting to see what bribe he wants to be friends and awaiting the next coup for his removal. That is actually the easy scenario.

If Egypt becomes an Islamic state than all bets are off and we can expect a new and exciting conventional war with Israel before the end of the decade.

The really interesting test is if he is removed by a popular revolt and an actual republic is created. How will a democratic Egypt act?

Will it open the border to Gaza? Will it keep the peace with Israel? With it cozy up to Iran? With it with information not controlled by the media find out the realities of Egyptian defeats at the hands of Israel and demand revenge? How will the Christians be treated? Will it be a place of sanctuary for jihadists?

It has been an axiom that democracies do not go to war with each other, but the Arab public has convinced itself that Israel is the center of all evil in the world. Arabs have been fed a steady stream of anti-Jewish propaganda and it would not it would not be a shock for a democratically elected Egypt to decide to “avenge the wrongs” they believe have been done against them and their brother Arabs. Remember the generation that was crushed by Israel in 72 is in their 60’s. Their grandchildren have been told stories of Egypt’s great victories. They do not know or understand what they would actually be getting into and likely wouldn’t believe us if we warned them.

That is the elephant in the room. Will an Egyptian democracy decide to wage a popular war against Israel and ignite the entire Middle East? Will they decide that the balance of power has changed enough for them to win? More importantly will Israel decide that Egypt is planning on doing such a thing and 1967 them to keep it from happening or even worse, will they with Iran about to go nuclear, Lebanon now under Hezbollah control and an unfriendly Egypt to the north finally decide that the Nuclear option’s time has now come?

This more than anything else is the big question. It is also why stopping Iran was so important. if Iran was neutralized and their nukes stopped then Israel would not have to fear an Egyptian attack as they could count on their traditional forces to crush them if they tried anything and an Egypt seeing a neutralized Iran would be less inclined to follow their example.

I hope and pray that this works out right in the end but I’m very afraid that our decision to play “kick the can” with Iranian nukes to avoid a small conflict may result in a larger, more deadly and more catastrophic war than we can dreamt of.