Local Elections

Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.

John Adams

As we continue to see the GOP head for the hills while the left braces for what they believe is going to be a banner year it’s worth noting the significant differences between what is expected to be the great blue wave of 2018 to the big red wave that actually happened in 2010.

#1 Obamacare vs the Tax Bill

The Big red wave of 2010 took place after the passage of Obamacare, one of the most unpopular laws in the history of lawmaking by a congress. Democrats were assured by their leadership and the media that one the law was passed it would become more and more popular with the public come election day. That was not the case. Republicans (falsely it turns out) promised to repeal Obama if given the chance and the voters decided to give them that chance.

The most significant law that was passed by this congress was the tax bill of 2017. It was excoriated in the media and we were assured by the Democrats and the left that it’s unpopularity would continue to grow the opposite has been the case. Many Democrats are running on the idea of repealing this bill and raising taxes. I suspect that will not be as popular as repealing Obamacare but in fairness to the Democrats I have no doubt that they will attempt to do so if elected.

#2. The 2002 map vs the 2012 maps

In 2010 the year of the big red wave the Republicans tax ran on the same congressional maps that the Democrats had won big on it 2006 and 2008, however the wave of 2010 extended was not limited to congress but took place over the entire nation giving the GOP an unprecedented number of seats at the state level just before redistricting. This means that the supposed “big blue wave” is going to have to break on a set of maps that specifically favor republicans in the house.

#3 The 2010 Senate Landscape vs 2018 Senate Landscape.

In 2010, the year of the big red wave the split of seats up for election was unremarkable 19 republican seats were up vs 18 democrat seats (counting special elections) but the Democrats had a huge majority (59-41 counting the two “independents” who voted with dems). The end result was the Democrats still held that majority but it shrunk to 52-47. In 2018 the republican majority is only 51-49 an even split in a divided country but only 9 GOP seats are up for re-election this year vs 24 for the Democrats, many of them in states that President Trump won. Democrats to take the majority will have to win 26 races out of 33.

4. 2010 Retirements vs 2018 retirements

In 2010 the retirement ratio of republicans to democrats was 20-17. Once again 17 Democrats are retiring but 38 republicans over 15% of the caucus have decided to give this election a miss. Given that the Democrats only need 24 seats this would seem a great advantage, but given that the GOP base is unhappy with the current congress’ inability to act (in fairness the Senate is mostly to blame here) the removal of incumbents associated with a “do nothing” congress might actually work in the GOP’s favor, or to put it another way, how many seats might the Democrats saved in 2010 if 38 Democrats who voted for Obamacare decided to retire in 2010 rather than run for re-election?

5. The 2010 Economy vs the 2018 Economy

In 2010 the Democrats had overwhelming majorities in both the House and Senate and were presiding over one of the worst economies in living memory and that was before the effects of Obamacare began to take effect. The Democrats had to run blaming said bad economy not on President Obama but on President Bush and the promise of prosperity just around the corner. In 2018 the economy is growing like gangbusters, the strong stock market is way up vs election day 2016 and people surging back into the work. Members of the GOP can run on keeping the good times rolling while Democrats are running on a combination of impeachment and raising taxes, in effect killing the goose that laid the golden eggs. It remains to be seen how popular that message is going to be.

6. The 2010 expectations vs the 2018 expectations.

With a few exceptions like the bloggers on the ground absolutely nobody saw the 2010 red wave coming. The warning shot of the Scott Brown election was considered by many an outlier and the Tea Party movement that drove the 2010 election was discounted by the media which assured us that the passage of Obamacare along with what they claimed was an improving economy would spell good news for Democrats and the party believed it. It wasn’t until the week before the election, sometimes the day before, that the media realized that there was something rotten in Denmark. In 2018 the media, the pundits and even some in the GOP, despite the roaring economy, see trouble ahead. Despite the favorable economy, their money advantage and favorable maps absolutely nobody in the party is taking this election for granted and while you are seeing a few pro-forma statements about retaining the majority you aren’t seeing the overconfidence that the Democrats and media showed in 2010 and 2016 right up to the final week. The GOP sees the rocks ahead with a full six months to do something about it.

7. A Trending down Incumbent in 2010 failing expectations vs an Trending up Incumbent surpassing expectations in 2018

No president was ever elected with Higher expectations than Barack Obama, the expectations for him were so high that he won a Nobel Peace prize simply for existing. 2010, the second year of his presidency was when reality started to creep in.

In 2010 Barack Obama started with an approval rating of 51-43 (Gallup weekly). This was pretty low point for him at the time as he had held a positive approval rating for all of 2009 spending the first half of the year in the 60’s and all but two weeks in the fifties to end it. He held a positive approval rating until the week of June 21st where his rating dropped to 45-46 July. While he would have one “even” week (Sept 6th) he would keep an approval rating he averaged an approval rating was -2.2 (45-47) from that point to election day which was a stark contrast to where he started on election day 2009 (67-13). During this entire time President Obama was constantly lionized by the press.

By contrast no president came to office with lower expectations that Donald Trump. The predictions were dire for the economy and the world with people literally expecting to be put into camps and the media and the world stoking such fears. In 2018 once again reality started to creep into this narrative.

Gallup ended its presidential approval polling in Jan of 2018 however Rasmussen continued daily tracking polls (no option for undecideds like gallup) and also runs an “approval index” based on those who “strongly approve” vs “strongly disapprove”

That “approval index” has not been a positive number since March 3rd 2017 and spent most of 2017 in the high teens to low 20’s. 2018 has seen a different trend President Trump reached single negative digits in feb and has remained in the low teens to high single digits chiefly from the “Strongly approve” number now being consistently in the 30’s rather than the 20’s

In terms of raw approval on election day Donald Trump had 56-44 approval rating. By March 17th he had dropped to 49-51 and with the exception of a single day (April 21st 2017) did not have a disapproval number below 50% and managed to reach as high as 62% disapproval.
In 2018 things have leveled off he has had several days where he has hit 50% approval and this month has averaged a 49-51 split.

And all of this is in the face of a press that has been pounding him from day one.

A closing thought, every point here, from the state of the economy to the maps to the polling numbers are based on either verifiable historical and/or the current numbers, or put simply the facts.

The GOP has reality on its side, can they leave their bubble long enough to see it?

Next:  The MSM’s 2018 Tet Offensive on the GOP


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Finally might I suggest my book Hail Mary the Perfect Protestant (and Catholic) Prayer makes an excellent Gift.

The Christian ideal has not been tried and found wanting. It has been found difficult; and left untried.

C.K. Chesterton

 

We’ve talked a bit lately on how Ted Cruz is the only viable alternative to Donald Trump (Marco Rubio’s Puerto Rico victory notwithstanding) as we’ve seen time and time again him demonstrating the ability to win states and actually beat Donald Trump, something that Marco has not managed to show to us beyond the chilly climes of Minnesota.

But in one sense Ted Cruz’s success in the primaries is completely counter intuitive, particularly with Donald trump in the mix, consider:

He is hated by a lot of the Washington Establishment and has directly challenged them. That means in places where the establishment rules Cruz is at a distinct disadvantage as opposed to say Marco Rubio it’s no coincidence that Marco did so well in the counties around DC. That’s where the hacks live.

He is an actual social conservative and has not been afraid to discuss that social conservatism nor showed a willingness to abandon it, that turned off big money donors early.

His primary issues, Obamacare, Amnesty and opposing Radical Islam have been completely co-oped by the Donald Trump campaign as has, to some extend his evangelical voting base.

Even with multiple victories under his belt, other than his own governor of Texas he can’t buy the endorsement of a governor, and as for his fellow senators, the closest thing he’s gotten to an endorsement is Lindsey Graham conceding that if Donald Trump is to be stopped the only choice is Cruz.  The establishment pols and the establishment money has all gotten behind Rubio

So given these facts how has Ted Cruz continued to rack up wins while Macro Rubio’s “always look on the bright side of life” philosophy only gains laughs.

Truth.

For all of the Donald’s™ cries of “liar”  Ted Cruz’s strength is his willingness to tell the truth.

First to the people who elected him.  Over and over he supported the policies that he said he would support and opposed the policies he said he would oppose.  Marco Rubio’s defining moment, by contrast, was the gang of 8 bill pushed by the establishment and the press in direct contrast to what he told voters he would do.

Second to Republicans who follow congress when he illustrated the difference between “show votes” and “real votes” letting the people see the GOP establishment not as they pretend to be, but as they are.

Third to the media as when they attempted to create their memes he not only refused to go along with them but points out truths they would like to ignore (for example George Stephanopoulos Clinton connection)

and Finally to the Primary electorate where his attacks on Donald Trump are based on actual verifiable statements and actual events with video as opposed to making crude jokes concerning anatomy, yet at the same time proclaiming that he will vote for the eventual nominee because he gave his word and further pointing out that if the party tries to steal the election at the convention it would be unjust.

Cruz’s message is the one Rush Limbaugh has been giving for decades, namely conservatism works everywhere it is tried and we should get back to trying it here.

That’s the truth, Ted Cruz owns it and that’s why I’m with him.

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Olimometer 2.52

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I briefly spoke with GOP candidate Russell Taub who is running for the House At large seat in Rhode Island at the YAF Nashua conference

Remember even in a blue state like RI half the battle is being willing to make the fight

This is the 10th of my series of Sarah Palin clips from CPAC 2014 & commentary upon them:

Day 1: The Crowd
Day 2: The Entrance
Day 3: Dr. Seuss
Day 4: Why Sarah Feels Good
Day 5: Playing Prevent
Day 6: Sinking Ships
Day 7: Flexibility Pens & Putin
Day 8: Anticipation
Day 9: Don’t blow it

Yesterday we talked about how unexpected the win in Fl-13 was, today lets remind folk about 2010.

If you are new to the story you might not remember the days before 2010 when GOP stalwarts told us our only chance was to cooperate with Barack Obama, to refuse to fight back against Barack Obama, to accept the changes that Barack Obama was offering.

The only two people who seemed to be in a fighting mood were Rush Limbaugh & Sarah Palin.

It wasn’t til the Brown win that any of this started to change and as late as January 8th 2010 (the election was the 19th) the Boston Phoenix ran this story which said (emphasis mine)

In less than two weeks, when Massachusetts voters elect Martha Coakley to the US Senate — let’s not pretend that Republican state senator Scott Brown has any chance of pulling off the monumental upset — they will trigger a massive domino effect that has the state’s political class buzzing with anticipation.

Even after Scott Brown won in Massachusetts shocking the entire country the MSM was in denial. As late as October 2010 we were seeing stories like this:

And posts like this from Politico

Top Democratic officials are convinced, and even some Republicans privately concede, that what’s happening is that party loyalists are coming home and other voters are beginning to assess both candidates in individual races.

“The early polls were really a gauge of people’s anger, but more recent polls are a gauge of people’s options,” Delaware Gov. and Democratic Governors Association Chairman Jack Markell told POLITICO.

What’s driving Democratic optimism is improving polling numbers — both in individual races and in generic indicators — ramped-up fundraising and their field efforts.

It wasn’t until the One Nation & Jon Stewart Rally crashed and burned that the MSM tuned their narrative the day before the election:

That’s why these remarks by Sarah Palin’s remarks are so important

Sarah reminds us that you advance by moving forward and being unafraid to fight.

In 2010 the GOP stepped back and let the Tea Party carry them over the finish line, in 2012 the decided that the Tea Party was not needed for victory and lost.

It’s 2014 and the GOP needs to decide if it wants to dance with the Tea Party that gave them the House majority. There is no reason why the GOP & the Tea Party working together should not guarantee huge GOP victories winning seats in the house and capturing the Senate.

If the GOP doesn’t realize this and decides it’s more important to defeat the Tea Party then the Democrats then will foolishly get their wish.

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Olimometer 2.52

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Jim Hacker: Nobody knows it’s not true. Press statements aren’t delivered under oath.

Yes Prime Minister A Victory for Democracy 1986

Do you remember when Wendy Davis because a hero to the left when she stood tall and strong in favor of the a woman right to knock off her 20 week old baby in the womb? I do. She gain accolades nationwide, prompting piece like this from Joan Walsh in Salon:

Let’s take a moment to remember what’s at stake here. Texas Democrats succeeded in blocking a lot of abortion restrictions until Gov. Rick Perry called a special session to push them through. SB 5 offers a revolting menu of bad policy for women: a 20-week abortion ban; new TRAP laws requiring abortion clinics to be certified as “ambulatory surgery centers,” which would close all but five of the 42 clinics open today, along with every clinic in West Texas. It would also require clinic doctors to have admitting privileges at hospitals and restrict the abortion drug RU-486. Opponents tried to block the bill’s passage in the House last Thursday with a “people’s filibuster,” but it ultimately passed.

I tuned in to Davis’ Senate filibuster after she’d been going about 10 hours Tuesday night, and I felt like I’d discovered a baseball game that was a no-hitter going into the ninth inning. On YouTube, almost 40,000 people were already watching; that ballooned to more than 150,000 after Dewhurst stopped Davis’ crusade on bogus procedural grounds. It was gripping.

Well Wendy Davis is running for Governor and with her manufactured history in tatters the Feminist Superhero has decided it’s time to play the “whatever works” card.

Davis said she could have supported a bill that contained only a 20-week ban, but the law’s restrictions on clinics and doctors have greatly curtailed access to the procedure in parts of Texas.

“It was the least objectionable,” she said. “I would have and could have voted to allow that to go through, if I felt like we had tightly defined the ability for a woman and a doctor to be making this decision together and not have the Legislature get too deep in the weeds of how we would describe when that was appropriate.”

Did I read that right, Abortion Barbie herself the woman that has all feminism aflame declared she could support a bill with a ban on abortions at 20 weeks?

I’d talk about what that declaration says about her, but more interesting is what it says about her supporters.

Last year Wendy Davis despite her filibuster that made her famous proclaimed herself “pro-life”, Last week despite her previous attempt to restrict guns Wendy Davis proclaimed herself in favor of open carry, and now Abortion Barbie herself is willing to say:  20 wk Abortion ban?   I could support that.

One would think progressives who have showered her campaign with 11.2 million last quarter would be demanding refunds.

They will not.

First of all as is the basic principle of Marxism the ends justify the means, if proclaiming herself pro-life, pro-gun and opposing abortion after 20 weeks they’ll pay for a million robocalls to the Texas electorate proclaiming it.

But more importantly as I’ve said in the past the left isn’t worried about any of these public proclamations by Wendy Davis because they know she’s lying and in the religion of liberalism as opposed to the Judeo-Christian culture Truth is an optional extra.

Update: Twitchy is having a lot of fun with this as are a few others like the Lonely Conservative and National Review but the prize goes to Allahpundit at Hotair:

At the rate we’re going, she’s going to end up filibustering a pro-choice bill before November.

Update 2: On a more serious note:

What are Texans supposed to make of Wendy Davis now?

Wendy Davis has either become thoroughly confused on what she really believes, has no core beliefs and does not really know very much, or she is just trying to confuse all of Texas with all of these absurd, near daily position changes.

I see no reason why they can’t all be true.

Update 3: Legal Insurrection says not Barbie but Gumby:

In hindsight, maybe the anaology to Barbie was inappropriate, but not for the supposed sexism reasons usually argued.

Gumby may be a more appropriate analogy, because on her personal narrative and key policy positions, Davis is infinitely flexible.

Sister Toldjah asks: Will the real Wendy Davis please stand up?

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Olimometer 2.52

Wednesday is here and DaTipJar continues its perfect display of inertia.

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Olimometer 2.52

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I remember the first Scott Brown campaign.

The crowds were incredible, the excitement was contagious, people in Massachusetts really believed it was a sign that the direction that had led us to ruin for decades might actually be ending.

And the Grass Roots that had been silent for years, the people who were sick of political correctness, of government intrusion, of high taxes and who say Mr. Brown as the best and last chance to stop Obamacare disaster that they (unlike the MSM) clearly saw before them, in its tracks emerged from the shadows and worked, oh HOW they worked. The number of man hours, the phone calls, the stand out were incredible.

They gave the one item that is more valuable than money for a campaign, The one thing you can never make more of…TIME!

After the victory he was hailed at CPAC he was celebrated, local bars were naming drinks after him and fear gripped the left in Massachusetts to the point where millions were spent to defend seats in congress in 2010 simply to hold the line and while they managed to do this, it cost them in many close races nationwide and lead to the GOP house majority that remains to this day.

Brown was a pragmatic senator on many issues and the media cheered him on celebrating him and suggesting that his only chance for re-election was to move left, unfortunately Brown agreed, time and time again he sided with Democrats and ran from the Tea Party that worked so hard to elect him.

When the Democrats choose the extreme ultra left candidate Elizabeth “You didn’t build that” Warren as their candidate national Democrats were orgasmic, gone was their complements of Scott Brown & the fawning media coverage. Instead they elevated Warren and dumped millions into sending Senator Brown home.

Alas with the left solidly against him, Brown still veered left and like Mitt Romney he kept his distance from the Tea Party and the base even as he needed ever single vote to keep his seat.

It didn’t save Mitt & it didn’t save Brown.

2014 is just a few days away and with Obamacare crashing and burning the best chance they have to save the senate for Barack Obama is to exacerbate the conflicts between the Tea Party & the Establishment GOP.

And lo and behold suddenly MSNBC and Morning Joe are all abuzz about Senator Brown selling his house in Massachusetts and moving to NH to run for the Senate Seat currently occupied by Jeanne Shaheen.

Already the backlash over Brown’s positions has begun, The Nashua protests will just be the beginning and the media will do their best to fan the flames in order to rip the partnership that made the GOP a majority party in congress asunder and rest assured it will only get worse as time goes on.

Maybe Senator Brown thinks he’s the best chance to beat Senator Shaheen, after all the contrast between the 60th vote for & the 41st vote against Obamacare is an appealing political juxtaposition but that will be small comfort if it rips the GOP apart in the one state in New England where they still have an organization that can complete on the state and national level.

In a piece at Fox Senator Brown wrote this:

Democrats would love for nothing more than for us to spend precious time and resources fighting amongst ourselves on unrelated issues. Indeed, this remains their best hope for avoiding a total wipeout at the ballot box next year.

If we aren’t able to come together and stand united around our core principles, the future of both our country and our political party is bleak.

That’s true, but I can’t think of anything that is more likely to cause that to happen in New Hampshire than Senator Brown running in the state for Senate.  The left did their best to use Senator Brown once before against the party and his own interests and it ended in defeat and division in the Massachusetts GOP just as it had a chance to begin their climb out of an impossible hole.  If he is truly concerned with party unity, if he wants to be sure the GOP has a united message so they win local races in the state as well as that vulnerable senate seat, the best thing he can do is stay out of the primary and endorse whoever wins to the hilt.

It will be quite Ironic if three years after Scott Brown was the spark that torched their citadel in 2010 he becomes the Molotov Cocktail to burn down the GOP chances to win the Senate and keep a hold in NH.

Update: The subject of the grass roots and marketing came up on this week’s show a key except:

Whose going to man the offices, who’s going to bang on the doors, make phone calls do those things and volunteer in waves, and when that first wave of volunteer gets tired you got to have a 2nd wave & a third wave and the first wave is rejuvenated and those people do tend to be on the ah not on the extremes but the more dedicated people, then perhaps from a republican point of view more conservative.

Paid consultants are all about their pay, it’s the volunteers that are willing to work without pay that make the difference and they come from the base.

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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Monday the 6th day of Christmas, After a slow Sunday the only movement toward a full paycheck this week was a pair of Subscriptions payments which have us $22 of the way toward our $340 goal

Given this December (a month that blogs normally go to die in off years) has been not only our best month this year and still has an outside chance of becoming our best month EVAH in terms of traffic I certainly have no business complaining about one slow Sunday.

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Lee: ´´Have no fear´´? My very words. 10,000 times a day.

Villager: Senor, don´t punish yourself.

Villager: A man who has fought so many times…You must have great courage.

Lee: Until the day you lose your nerve. You feel it. And then you wait, for the bullet in the gun that is faster than yours.

The Magnificent Seven 1960

Last night  Glenn Reyonlds linked twice to pieces  / tweets on democrat fear concerning Obamacare:

they’re worried that they’ll be the next victims of anger over Obamacare. In DC perception is often more important than reality, and can have a greater effect on the decisions politicians make. If Democrats are so twitchy about Obamacare right now that they’re seeing signs of its unpopularity everywhere, the voices on the left now cautiously calling for delays or amendments to the law might become much louder.

If brought back memories from January 2010

Some things are worth repeating. Particularly when you see stories like this:

The White House is evaluating whether to take a breather on health care or try to push for passing legislation, but is not convinced Massachusetts voters were trying to block health insurance reform by voting last week to send Republican Scott Brown to the U.S. Senate, Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said Sunday. emphasis mine.

That’s the history people are forgetting  the left’s fear of the political consequences of Obamacare existed long before it passed.

All during the time Obamacare was debated in Congress the Democrats had an overwhelming majority in the House and in the Senate.

This means that on every single sub-committee vote,  every committee vote, every rules vote and every single procedural vote democrats could get whatever they wanted without the need for a single republican to go along.  As I reminded James Carvelle when he was spinning in Aug 2009

Unless he knows about a special election that the rest of us don’t there are still only 40 Republican votes in the senate and the house has a very large democratic majority. Republicans can’t kill any bill the democrats are willing to pass.

What Mr. Carville wants is cover for his members and the ability to share the blame. If his people really believed this was the right thing to do they would do it. They want cover for this lemon, the Republicans won’t give it so he is trying to make lemonade.

And until the election of Scott Brown to be the 41st vote their power to shape the bill was absolute.  Once he won that election the game shifted back to the house to pass the Senate Version unamended and congressmen who had voted for the base bill were already running from it:

Hey it’s always an indication that things are going well when undecided congressmen choose to skip a rally being attended by the president of the United States:

Representative John Boccieri, Democrat of Ohio, whose vote on major health care legislation could be crucial to the outcome, will not be attending President Obama’s health care rally on Monday in Strongsville, Ohio, not far from Mr. Boccieri’s own district, a spokeswoman said

Or counting on things like Bart Stupak’s phony Abortion compromise for cover.

Bart Stupak confirms the Fishbait Miller theory of Nancy Pelosi:

“The Speaker always carries a number of votes in her pocket,” he said, meaning that some members who voted ‘no’ would have voted ‘yes’ if needed.

“I had a number of members who thanked us after because they could vote no.”

But all the spin aside there was one fact that was true from day one:

The democrats KNOW both health care bills are Lemons that serve their own special interests groups over the people they claim to be helping. If they thought for one moment that these bills were good or the country and/or a political winner, they would have passed them and eagerly took the full credit.

They still know it, that’s why Ted Cruz moves which put the entire Democrat caucus on record opposing a delay in Obamacare was critical because it linked any democrat in congress who wasn’t there to vote for the law forever to it.

It’s a tribute to how horrible this law is that three years after it has passed Democrats are still in panic over its political consequences.

Final thought if the GOP had supported a Tea Party nominee instead of the one person who could provide political cover to Democrats in general or Barack Obama in particular over Obamacare in 2012 we would be discussing Harry Reid’s filibuster to prevent the repeal of the law today.

Update:  Apparently Democrat Senator Mary Landreu of Louisiana has a scheduling conflict today that Governor Jindel does not

Jindal and Mayor Landrieu are scheduled to meet Obama at the airport before an event at the Port of New Orleans. Mary Landrieu had a scheduling conflict and will not go to the port

.Jindal said he would accompany Obama on the tour if he is invited

UNEXPECTEDLY!

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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Friday and I’m facing the worst payweek I’ve seen in a while a full $259 shy of a full paycheck.

That bodes poorly considering that next week it will have to cover Chris, Vin, Harry, Bernardo, Brett & Lee.

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Mandy: You sound Scottish.
Amy: I am Scottish. What’s wrong with that? Scotland’s gotta be here somewhere.
Mandy: No. They wanted their own ship.
Amy: Good for them. Nothing changes.

Doctor Who: The Beast Below 2010

Once upon a time there was a political party in Massachusetts called the GOP that regularly lost elections for National office and that party had a choice to make.

For the 2nd time in four years they had a chance to face a Democrat after a tough primary race alone on a ballot without city counselors, town clerks,  governors counselors, ballots questions ,  state reps or senators that might have voters who supported them to help increase the Democrat party vote.

The last time this happened everyone, including the party expected to lose.  But the Tea Party base was energized, they volunteered in large numbers and they helped draw volunteers and funds from members of the GOP base nationwide.  Their candidate, with nothing to lose,  embraced that base and highlighted a single key issue that polled well among both the party and independents who made up the majority of the electorate in the campaign.

With the money and manpower the teaparty base drew the polling improved and the state party and national party decided to help after all.

Not only did their candidate win but that fall the Party they had the best showing in state elections for rep they had in years.

But the GOP decided they didn’t like the Tea Party people or the base because they said they wanted a louder voice in the party and the candidate decided the people voted for him because they loved him so much and not because the Tea Party and base worked so hard, so they pushed them away in the next election.

They not only lost the national seat they had won, but lost some of their new state rep seats too.

But even though the GOP didn’t like them the tea party, the base didn’t go away because they wanted their state to be better for themselves and their children so when there was another chance to win a seat in the same way they did in 2010 they found a candidate they agreed with and supported them in straw polls all over the state.and said to the party:  “Please vote for our man and our people will come back and help beat the Democrats again.”

But the establishment decided didn’t want to support the tea party or the base’s man who agreed with them and wanted someone else.  So they thought and thought and came up with an idea.

You see the very smart people in the establishment of the national party noticed a lot of people had come to America and Massachusetts from a distant southern land called “Hispanica” and while culturally they seemed a lot like the base, they voted for the Democrats.  They decided this was because the law said the people from “Hispanica” who wanted to live in the US had to follow the same rules as people from England, Congo or even India, but they didn’t want to.  So the party decided if they made a new rule that allowed anybody who broke the law coming to America to stay all the people who came from “Hispanica” and their children who already were here would decide they would not hate the GOP any more and maybe vote for them.

So they found a candidate who not only supported that new rule but whose mom & dad came from “Hispanica” so he spoke the  language of “Hispanica” so that all the people whose families came from that southern land would see him and say:

“Look this man is the very first from our home of “Hispanica” to run for senate so we will support him even though the Democrats have told us for years that the people in that party were bad and hated all people from “Hispanica” and wanted to take away the money the government gives to some people who come from there.”

So the party backed him even though the base and tea party didn’t agree with him saying they might stay home, and the national donor base didn’t give him money to hire people to help him win either because he supported laws they hated.

The party establishment didn’t worry.  They were much smarter than the base or the tea party and knew because their candidate supported the new rules that the national establishment did and was a child of “Hispanica” he would make all the people from “Hispanica” decide to vote for him.

Election day came and even through the Democrats had plenty of money and their machine was ready to roll their candidate only managed to draw 60% of they votes the very bad candidate did in 2010.

So to win the GOP only needed to draw 55% of the voters they did in 2010.  In some towns where the base was larger than others , voters said: “Even though you disagreed with us and the “Establishment” doesn’t like us we think you are better than the other guy” and voted for him.

But even though he won those towns and cities many of the base in those towns stayed home and didn’t come to vote  so he didn’t get a lot of votes extra votes.

But they still weren’t worried because their candidate supported the new rules and was a child of “Hispanica” so he would make all the people from “Hispanica” decide to vote for him.

So on election day they went to a city with many people from “Hispanica” and said: “Look our candidate is a child of Hispanica just like you! Come vote for him!”  But the people of that city said: We’ve never heard of a country called “Hispanica” Our parents come from a country called “The Dominican Republic” and they voted for the party they always did.

Then they went to another town and said “Look our candidate is from the land of Hispanica just like you” and the people of that town said: “We’ve never heard of a land called ‘Hispanica” our fathers came from a land called “Brazil” and they voted for the party they always did.

And everywhere the story was the same, the people never heard of “Hispanica”, they said their fathers had come from places like “Mexico”, “Puerto Rico”, “Peru”, “Ecuador” and all those people voted for the same party they always did.

So when all the votes were counted the GOP got less than 45% of the people who came to vote for the party just three years ago and they lost the best chance they would have to win for a very long time…

…and they blamed the Tea Party and the Base.

The Moral of our tale? There are two:

There is no land of “Hispanica”.  Instead there are 25 Latin American counties with different cultures, peoples and traditions so stop pretending people from those lands will vote for you just because you ran someone named “Gomez”.

You can’t add to your vote total if you chase away the base of voters most likely to support and finance you.

The End.

Update:  One more moral, no matter how good an idea you have for a post, if you finish it at 1:30 AM sleep on it and post it in the morning after you proofread it with a full night’s sleep under your belt.

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Olimometer 2.52

One upon a time there was a conservative who lost his job in the Tech Industry and started to write and report on politics. He worked very hard and after 5 years built a following and managed to start a radio show but like many new business’ couldn’t afford to draw a pay.

So he asked his many readers if 15 of them a week would be willing to kick in $20 so he could draw enough of a monthly pay to afford his $1210 mortgage

For four months he was able to do so but in the fifth month his draw was not as successful so by Wednesday morning he was still $138 short on a weekly paycheck and $499 short of the mortgage payment.

So he asked if 7 more readers could kick in $20 to make the paycheck to start and then perhaps he could find others willing to cover the $361 defect for the month.

I’m afraid you will have to decide how the story ends.

What is the use of being elected or re-elected unless you stand for something?

President Grover Cleveland 1887

One of the most important pieces I’ve read in the last week is Yates Walker’s piece of Christine O’Donnell. He takes on that most cherished of anti-teaparty conventional wisdom,  Christine O’Donnell victory in the GOP primary in Delaware was a disaster for conservatives  and maintains it is just the opposite.   He has much to say but lets lead with a line that every conservative activist should take to heart:

Mike Castle was a leftist’s dream. He was a big-spending, George-Soros-funded, NARAL-approved politician who never met an earmark he didn’t like. Electing him as a Republican weakened the party. In every policy debate that matters, Mike Castle and others like him side with the left. For this, they are rewarded by the media and described as moderate.

This might seem an odd time to bring this up, but it has special relevance today when you consider Chuck Hagel.

Hagel hit the Bush Administration on Iraq. He piled on the president on a regular basis and what was the result?

CBS, ABC, NBC CNN, MSNBC lionized him, he was constantly on the air, for an opinion or a sound bite. When the left (read Media) needed “balance” in their presentation, they could always count on Chuck to provide “bipartisan” opening that began with “some in the president’s own party… like so: (all emphasis mine)

Brokaw: “Iraq has divided this country deeply. Where is the war taking us? What happened to ‘stay the course?'”

George W. Bush: “I know many Americans are not satisfied with the situation in Iraq, I’m not satisfied either and that is why we’re taking new steps to help secure Baghdad.”

Brokaw: “Even longtime Republicans see this election as a vote up or down on those who thought the war was a good idea.”

Sen. Chuck Hagel: “Iraq is the issue. Iraq is the issue everywhere, in every state.”

And not just on Iraq on North Korea:

On NBC’s Today, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman lamented that it’s too late for Bush to salvage peace: “North Korea has concluded that this administration wants their, their head on a wall, basically, and therefore there’s probably nothing the United States can do now, to really reassure the North to give up their nukes, which is really their life insurance policy.” This came just a minute or so after Friedman described Kim as the “Tony Soprano of Pyongyang.”

NBC set up the Friedman interview in which reporter Andrea Mitchell explained that “experts” say this weekend’s tougher steps are insufficient. She quoted Robert Gallucci and Wendy Sherman without telling the audience that the two of them were essential cogs in Bill Clinton’s Kim-coddling regime. For “balance,” they were echoed by Sen. Chuck Hagel.

and Israel:

Mitchell spun the domestic criticism of the Bush administration as bi-partisan but the only Republican critic she could identify was Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel.

Do you see the trick here? It’s not news if Barbara Boxer or Dick Durbin hit the GOP but if you can find a party member to do it, you get to double your attack AND provide the illusion of “balance” after all this critique is from a Republican. Yates Walker again:

In reality, moderates like Mike Castle are guarantors of conservative defeat. Political debate always ends in compromise. If Castle is “moderate,” then why should anyone entertain proposals from the far right? In every debate, the question is not whether conservatives win, but how much we lose.

Chris Coons defeated Christine O’Donnell in 2010.  Since that election have you ever once seen the MSM put Chris Coons on the air? Does on MSNBC, CBS, NBC, ABC, MSNBC, Face the Nation, ABC’s This Week or Meet the Press look for his comment on the news of the day or quote him on air? No. Why? Because if blue state Democrat Chris Coons parrots the Obama/Liberal/MSM line it’s not news.

But lets pretend, just for a moment Christine O’Donnell had not run and Mike Castle won that seat. For the last two years you would have seen him on every network as the face of the GOP. He would be the “sensible” face advocating more taxes and spending, the, the “moderate” face to fund abortion, whenever the MSM needed “balance” his face would be there.

And maybe, just maybe in 2020 or so he could have been the token GOP member in a future Democrat administration.

Instead the MSM has to find “no labels” republicans to put on the air, as opposed to actual serving members. They need to fish for squishes in the house caucus because they don’t dare put a Ted Cruz next to Chuck Schumer on Meet the Press again, or give a Kelly Ayotte face time or promote a Marco Rubio unless to hit him for drinking water.

This is the gift Christine O’Donnell gave the GOP by running so hard to win the GOP primary in Delaware in 2010. It’s the gift Doug Hoffman gave the GOP when he defeated Dede Scozzafava and it’s the gift Marco Rubio gave the National GOP when he went to the Senate and sent Charlie Crist to the Democrat convention.

I don’t vote Republican because I have a love affair with the letter “R” or hope to get a member of my (former) club on the inside to provide patronage.  It’s to advance ideas i believe in for the benefit of the country and my children and some day grandchildren.

If the GOP forgets this lesson it will die and deserve to.  If the nation forgets this lesson it’s the day this republic ends.

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It’s a new week so naturally I’m looking for a new paycheck

15 People at $20 dollars each week pays the bills, on Sunday we found 1 1/4 of them. Now $25 might not seem like much but it’s $25 better than we were this time last week and last week we met our goal by Thursday.

If you think this kind of new media is worth it consider kicking in. Then you can tell your friends you have media working for you instead of against you.





For the last two weeks we have been treated to the narrative that Barack Obama is surging at the polls, Mitt Romney is in trouble and unless there is a massive change in direction it is all over.

Simply put this is a lie.

Of all the polls you have seen, there is one poll that has gotten no attention, it is a poll that has been taken monthly, it is a poll that Doug Ross spotted and promoted on his site. It is the Rasmussen Poll of party identification.

They have party identification results online dating back to 2004. Here are the 2012 numbers through August

That shows a GOP advantage in registration this year but you might say: “Hey, Datechguy, you’ve been hitting polls all year, why can’t THIS poll be wrong?”

That’s a good question, we can answer it by asking another question: Does this poll of party identification correspond with the results of national elections?

Lets take a look:

2004 George Bush wins re-election

The closest the Republicans come to democrats in registration is Sept at a .6 in September. On election day Democrats had a registration advantage of 1.5. Yet not only did George Bush win re-election with that disadvantage but the GOP took 3 senate seats and 3 House seats over 2002.

2006 Midterms Revenge of the left:

In January the GOP was the closest they would be .6 off but by November the Mark Foley scandal was still big news and on election day Democrats had a spread of 6.1 points. This carried them to a net gain of 31 house seats & 5 seats.

2008 The coming of Barack Obama

The year of hope and change. The closest split was 5.6 in January & in September after the Palin Pick but by election day not only was the split 7.6 for Dems but for the first time (Feb) A party had identification over 40%. The Democrats kept that number over 40% 8 out of 12 months that year reaching a high of 41.7% the largest number in this 9 year sample for either party. With these figures it’s should be no surprise that Barack Obama win but Democrats picked up 8 seats in the Senate & 21 Seats in the house.

2010 Midterms The Rise of the Tea Party

2010 proved conclusively that timing is everything for the first time in the nine years, the GOP took an advantage in poll registration from -2.9 to plus 1.3 in one month, and that month was November.

Additionally the 37.0 figure for the GOP was the highest for the party since Dec 2004. At the very same time the 33.7 figure in December was the lowest figure for democrats EVER.

Correspondingly the GOP gained 6 Senate seats (not counting the Jan Scott Brown Race) and in the house picked up 63 seats more than democrats picked up in 2006 & 2008 combined.

These results since 2004 seem to indicate the poll is reliable. So what has it said lately, lets start with 2011 lets look at 2011

This is the year of the great fights between the GOP House & the president and it’s the most interesting year of the lot. The lead changes hands 6 times during the year as the country tries to figure out what it wants and for the first time EVER Other was in the lead, (Aug) tied with the GOP (33.5) ahead of democrats (33.0) other was ahead of the GOP 3 times in 2007.

Now lets look at that 2012 chart again:

At no time during the year do the Democrats have a registration advantage vs republicans, the gap closes in July & re-separates in August. The low point for the GOP was July for 34.9 and the high August at 37.6 For democrats the high was 34.0 in June & July the low was 32.4 in Feb

What does this mean for November? It means a lot.

The Democrats won 2 election in this period 2006 & 2008 with a 6.9 advantage in 2006 & a 7.6 advantage in 2008.

There is no example of the Democrats winning since 2004 with an advantage less that 6.9.

The GOP won two elections in this period 2004 with a -1.6 disadvantage & 2010 with a 1.3 advantage. This means the GOP has proven it can win with not only a small lead but with an actual disadvantage. Additionally with an advantage of only 1.3 they pulled off the biggest house swing in my lifetime.

Can these number change? Well the biggest 1 month swing I’ve seen is 4.2 Oct-Nov in 2010 the biggest 3 month swing was Dec 2007-Feb 2008 6.9 in favor of Democrats at the rise of Obama.

Tell me with the economy in the tank, and the new trouble in the Middle East, what is the prospect of a swing of that size to the Democrats happening again right now? Moreover even if that record registration swing repeated itself right now this would give democrats an advantage of only 2.6 points.

I’ve covered a lot of national polls on this site over the last year and all those polls ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX have one thing in common.

Not a single one of those polls had a sample with a GOP advantage.

As Rush would say: Zip, Zero Nada.

Not only have none of these polls had a GOP advantage but the closest we saw was a D+4 poll.

Doug Ross via (@NumbersMuncher & @AriFleischer) has a great chart on his site that I’ll reprint here:

In every single poll showing Barack Obama ahead on this chart the sample is at least D+4 Even if the biggest swing in history takes place in the next 3 months toward the left that is 1.4 points above what the party split will be.

All of the figures I’ve cited are from a source publicly available. The Media know these figures, the left knows these figures and the Networks know these figures.

Yet they are still using polls with huge democrat samples and representing them as real.

I don’t know what that tells you but I sure know what it tells me

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

The election of Barack Obama was the biggest con ever perpetuated on the US Public, the polls the media is reporting these days is a close second.

Update: CBS belowns itself, D+13 REALLY?

Update: I stayed up late tweeting this out and had this tweet from a leftist named Mr. D who made this incredible assertion:

 

Being not only fair-minded but also sane and rational I asked for some data, the exchange was….interesting

 

Oh I’m now not only a bigot but it’s as clear as proving the sky is blue so who needs data?

 

Hey I can take a photo of the sky to prove it’s blue, if all these polls skew GOP you would think you can produce at least 1 to show it, but not this is the left I’ve said it so it MUST be true.

Talk about hide the decline.

Update 3: Great example of my point in the PPP Virgina Poll. Poll claims Obama up 50-45. Poll Sample +3 Dem

Actual registration split in Virginia? GOP +3

Update 4: I should stress that none of these figures are an argument to be complacent, to not make the calls, to not engage and to not fight for every vote out there. The registration trends are in our favor but apathy is fatal. Be cocky but not lazy.

Update 5: Instalanche Thanks Glenn & Powerline picks today, thanks guys.

Update 6: Linked by Hillbuzz, Ace, Neoneocon, Best of the Web, Before it’s news, polipundit, Evil Blogger Lady and I’m told mentioned on the air by Rush Limbaugh.

Thanks to you all, welcome to all the new readers and check out the site, the radio show (latest episode available by clicking on my fedora above) Nice to have you here.

Update 7: BTW for those who don’t know I like Rush have been arguing all the objective data shows the Democrats are not only losing but “Demoralized as Hell” click on the words “Ride Right Through them They’re demoralized as hell” for the full series and if you are a Rush fan you will want to read this or the short version here.

Update 8:  My disdain for skewed polls is not limited to polls shifted to favor candidates I oppose.

Update bottom: One more thing. The MSM will pay Politico & the Morning Joe people to put out this stuff, my stuff is only possible because of you, any help is appreciated