Yesterday I wrote the following:

With Rush also mentioning the race I suspect that the question is fast becoming not if people can bring Hoffman over the top but will republicans be wise enough to get ahead of the curve to support the winner.

Followed by this:

Perhaps those who will be looking for the Grassroots support in 2012 might want to get in front while they can still take some credit?

and preceded by this:

if Palin is interested in making trouble for Romney and Paulenty she can come out for Hoffman. That will put them in the uncomfortable position of either joining her (and having them appear as followers) or supporting Dede (and making particularly Paulenty unacceptable to conservatives, Romney is already iffy) or not being willing to stand up for anything.

The party make a bad investment in NY and their stock is crashing. Apparently they’d rather lose their stake then re-invest in Doug Hoffman. What fools.

Today Jim Geraghty says this:

Is Somebody About to Make Doug Hoffman’s Day?

Don’t take this to the bank, at least not yet. But somebody who seems to be in a position to know what’s coming down the pike in New York’s special election tells me that he’s hearing Sarah Palin will publicly endorse Conservative Doug Hoffman over Republican Dede Scozzafava.

If this happens it will be a seismic shift and will change the dynamics of the race (and piss off David Frum but that’s an added bonus, I really shouldn’t say that he’s wrong lately but likely not a bad guy). It also puts the NRCC in a bad spot because they will need Palin in 2010 BADLY!

If it turns out to be true it’s a shame that there isn’t a shoe leather reporter/blogger on the scene to cover it. Oh Wait.

I guess I was wrong at first concerning holding back. Just goes to show you the difference a few days makes.

Vote Hoffman.

In order to aid he who peace is upon on the value of a balanced debate, lets link to a dissenting view by Elizabeth Payne.

Update: Speaking of reporting from the place where the news is being made:

While Scozzafava has the endorsement of Armey’s former congressional colleague Newt Gingrich and the support of the national GOP, grassroots volunteers from the Tea Party movement have bouyed the campaign of Hoffman, running on the Conservative Party line.

“The Republican candidate can’t win,” Armey declared, saying that Gingrich “made the wrong choice” in backing Scozzafava, a New York state assemblywoman whose record puts her to the left of most Democrats here in this largely rural district, where Republican Rep. John McHugh routinely won re-election with 2-to-1 margins.

In the words of Jimmie expect more exclusive reporting

News keeps breaking from the NY 23. This time it from TCOT report as recorded by Michael Patrick Leahy:

We acted very tone deaf in how we selected this nominee.”

Joseph also took a shot at Clinton County Chairman and Assemblywoman Janet Duprey, who threw the nomination to Scozzafava despite the fact that the majority of the Clinton County committee members who attended a candidate forum voted for the ideologically conservative Paul Maroun, and not for the ideologically liberal Scozzafava.

“I would be as much offended if I was a resident or committee person of that county. This process, that started in an honorable fashion has turned into a tainted runaway election.”

Joseph conceded that because of this, Scozzafava is almost certain to lose the election.

It’s looking a lot like some local GOP people decided to flex the muscles because they could. The damage this is going to do to the party nationally can’t be overestimated, but then again this might be a feature rather than a bug to these guys who are more interested in their own fiefdoms.

Meanwhile Robert Stacy takes a few minutes away from the desperate fight to contain the Flemish Menace to attempt to get the funds to head a bit closer to my neck of the woods.

Right now, I’m on deadline for a Wednesday column about the NY-23 special election. Dick Armey’s going to be campaigning for Hoffman on Thursday. So I plan to leave either late Wednesday or early Thursday to cover it in person. Your continued generosity to the Shoe Leather Fund is necessary to this effort.

Meanwhile he writes the following for the spectator:

However, Hoffman is battling against major party candidates, with the national GOP spending hundreds of thousands of dollars for Scozzafava — angering conservatives like Michelle Malkin — while the Democratic Party pours cash into the campaign coffers of its candidate, Bill Owens.

With high-profile supporters including Fred Thompson, Dick Armey, Bill Kristol and the Club for Growth, the Hoffman campaign has become what John Gizzi of Human Events calls a “national conservative crusade.”

Conservatives have had their eye on the Hoffman campaign for weeks, but now major national media are finally taking notice. “The race the nation should be watching is a special election in upstate New York,” Newsweek magazine’s David Graham wrote yesterday, saying the outcome would show “whether Democrats can hold on to voters who went for Obama in 2008.”

This is actually going to show nothing of the sort as the Democrat candidate is unlikely to break the mid 40’s if he is lucky but it will certainly be a referendum of the NRCC and on Newt who appears to think that the majority of the sales of his new book (my review here) are going to come from NRCC mass purchases than from conservative history buffs or he just wants to keep his viability for income as a party pundit (that’s what many candidacies are actually all about.) hey it’s a living.

Fred Thompson has other sources of income so he is less resistant to picking sides based on conservative beliefs.

The real question is will Rush or Palin risk capital on this race that in the end means very little although it will be used a a propaganda victory for the Obamacult, but if Palin is interested in making trouble for Romney and Paulenty she can come out for Hoffman. That will put them in the uncomfortable position of either joining her (and having them appear as followers) or supporting Dede (and making particularly Paulenty unacceptable to conservatives, Romney is already iffy) or not being willing to stand up for anything.

The party make a bad investment in NY and their stock is crashing. Apparently they’d rather lose their stake then re-invest in Doug Hoffman. What fools.

However it turns out it won’t be boring.

A: When it takes your the candidate that takes three tries to say this:

Update at 2:32 p.m.: Burns adds that Scozzafava would run in the Republican primary in 2010 if challenged. He declined to say whether or not Scozzafava was open to running as an independent if she lost the primary.

Can’t anybody play this game?

Bill Kristol has it exactly right:

Today, the Wall Street Journal has a story on the race with the headline Tea-Party Activists Complicate Republican Comeback Strategy. The truth is the opposite: The GOP establishment complicates the Republican and conservative comeback strategy.

The party is going to get exactly the result it deserves with this move and the biggest winner will be Obama.

Vote Hoffman!

One warning in the 2008 election I was 0 for everything! Even local elections and ballot questions. Lets hope the trend doesn’t continue.

Update: Via Michelle, Doug Hoffman addresses this directly:

On August 18 Scozzafava’s campaign called my signing of the Taxpayer Protection Pledge a “stunt”:

Matthew A. Burns, campaign spokesman for Republican candidate Dierdre K. Scozzafava, said Mr. Hoffman’s pledge was a “stunt,” and did not indicate if his candidate would sign.

On October 1 Scozzafava herself publicly promised not to sign the pledge:

Scozzafava said she won’t sign the pledge because the income tax is just one form of tax, and that more people could be impacted if, for example, you refuse to increase income taxes under any circumstances but raise other taxes or fees instead.

But after two weeks of conservatives and independents abandoning her in droves to support my campaign, she has had a foxhole conversion:

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Dede Scozzafava, a Republican running in New York’s 23rd Congressional district, recently signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge sponsored by Americans for Tax Reform (ATR).

I wouldn’t want to interrupt this show of steely principled resolve, but isn’t it slightly problematic to break a promise in the act of making another promise? Is there any lesson here except that Dede Scozzafava will say or sign whatever she thinks is mostly likely to get her elected?

I think the people are a lot smarter than the NRCC gives them credit for. I hope I’m right.

…not THE status quo which is democratic control of congress but A status quo, making sure that waves are not made with particular interests.

The thing about power is it waxes and wanes, sooner or later the Republicans will again control the house and/or senate. Sooner or later they will be Chairmen of committees that have spending and taxing power and that means sooner or later interests will shower them with money and favors to retain their particular interests.

The problem is if you get candidates who actually take conservatism seriously then that type of business as usual becomes harder and said power brokers loose face with the money men who might God forbid withhold their largess or even worse support the other guys!

This is why NY23 is significant. There are likely internal reasons why Dede Scozzafava was selected but like Newt’s endorsement is short term thinking (unless his primary concern is the gravy train). If the party discourages conservatives they will see more of this.

The republican party is happy when it comes to the tea party movement generating negative ratings for the president and challenging him so they don’t have to do it. About actually electing conservatives that will challenge Republicans to actually live up to the fiscal responsibilities that they espouse? Not so much.

I should note that you get the same dynamic from the other side. The far left is strung along for money to preserve majorities by electing democrats in “purple” districts but those same candidates balk at the radical agenda and the people who put up the money rightly cry foul. The hypocrisy is the same but one significant difference exists.

The conservative principles of the tea party protesters:

Fiscal responsibility
Support of Military victory and the Troops
Judeo-Christian values
Lower Taxes

These appeal to the great mass of the American public and are often publicly declared even by progressives.

The liberal principles of progressives:

Government Socialism
American defeat abroad and support of repression
Secular humanism ridicule of Judo-Christian values
Higher Taxes

These can NOT be declared openly without electoral defeat except in the most radical areas such as San Francisco.

You will on occasion see “progressives” espouse some or all of the conservative values while running to get elected, you will never see a conservative espouse the 2nd.

Update: Professor Darren Hutchinson seems to notice our problem in reverse. It appears both of use are being used like Leonard Hofstadter for Leslie Winkle immediate satisfaction.

A: Give them power:

Americans’ approval of the job Congress is doing has gone from 31 percent in September to 21 percent with much of the loss due to a sharp drop in the view of Congress held by Democrats, according to a Gallup poll conducted Oct. 1-4.

Talk left is unhappy:

Now some may think Max Baucus’ shenanigans in an attempt to please President Olympia Snowe will energize the Dem base for 2010. I am not one of them.

It’s all well and good in academia to theorize about all the wonderful things a leftist policy can do for you, it’s another to actually live under one.

More commentary here.