REMINDER: In 2009, Barack Obama “Joked” About Having The IRS Audit His Enemies.

Glenn Reynolds

As everyone knows I’m a tea party republican so one might think that I’d be delighted because Chris Christie is in hot water, well I am delighted but for a totally different reason.

This Morning MSNBC, and the rest of the left has gone all in on Chris Christie concerning the bridge scandal.  Memeorandum is full of stories:

 EMS responses delayed by GWB lane closures in Fort Lee

Christie’s Waterloo

I’ll have a lot to write about the meat and potatoes of this business later this later but I want to talk about the incredible opportunity this gives the GOP.

Right now the media is obsessed with this scandal, it’s everywhere and their arguments look like this:

How DARE Christie or his aides use the power of his office during an election campaign to punish a political foe.

How DARE Chris Christie or his aides use a state agency to make this happen.

How DARE Chris Christie or his aides take a cavalier attitude toward ordinary people’s lives.

If anyone thinks that Chris Christie & or his campaign didn’t know about this or didn’t support it with a wink & nod they are completely naive.

And all of these media types are just dying to have members of the GOP come on their shows to comment on this horrible GOP scandal and if the GOP is smart at all, they should jump at the chance.

And they should use every moment on the air to compare and contrast the media reaction to this Christie Scandal to the IRS scandal.

How horrible that in view of the ongoing IRS scandal where a government agency was used to go after conservatives that such a thing would happen.

They should wonder aloud if any of Chris Christie’s aides will plead the 5th under oath like the IRS people did.

They should talk about how Chris Christie should not stonewall or put up roadblocks as the Obama administration has continued to do with the IRS scandal.

And they should of course talk about the contrast between the media interest, saying perhaps Christie might use the Obama strategy on the IRS scandal, deny and stonewall in the hope that the media will ignore it over time.

They should POUND this there should be no answer that comes out of their lips that doesn’t use the words “IRS Scandal” and “Bridge Scandal” in the same sentence.  Every article written on it by any conservative source should mention it, contrast it play on the difference in media interest between the pair.

In fact if I’m Chris Christie I bring up the IRS scandal over and over again at my press conference saying stuff like:  ” I’m not going to delay or stonewall this investigation like the President & the IRS.”  and make it a point to constantly contrast the IRS scandal to this one.

Who knows if they press are in a spot where they can’t quote him without bringing up IRS they might even back off.

This is a gimme, a no brainer and the GOP needs to take full advantage of it and milk it for as much as they can.

No charge GOP, but Tip Jar hits will be cheerfully accepted.

Update:  via Glenn, James Taranto gets it:

Its sheer pettiness is what distinguishes the GWB scandal from the ObamaCare and IRS ones. The ObamaCare fraud was in the service of an ambitious ideological agenda, and as we have argued, the 2012 election was close enough that it is possible the IRS’s suppression of opposition was necessary to secure the president a second term. Christie, by contrast, is not much of an ideologue and was cruising to an easy re-election.

In the latter regard, the bridge shenanigans look more like the Watergate burglary–a gratuitous misuse of power. “Reporters will eventually demand to know . . . what Christie knew and when he knew it,” observes conservative blogger Sean Davis. “None of the defenses now available to Christie–intentional deceit or intentional ignorance–paint him in a favorable light.” That’s especially true if voters two years from now are looking for a corrective to the corruption and deception of the Obama years.

Update 2:  Can I get an AMEN for Erick Erickson & John Nolte:

 

Update 3: Christie Press conference in progress. Straight up apologies, no justifications for lying Bridget Anne Kelly fired. Would never have joked about this if he every had an inkling that anyone on the staff would be so stupid to be involved and so deceitful as to lie about it to us.

“I am responsible for what happened.”

Update 4:  Assuming he is not lying through his teeth this press conference is a textbook example of how something like this should be done.  Watching him taking questions on the issue.  The contrast to the last four years of Obama administration plus Al Gore’s “No controlling legal authority” and “It depends on what the meaning of the word “is”  is.” can’t be overstated.

Update 5:  90 minutes into press conference and MSM is getting upset

the ultimate irony?

If Christie hasn’t answer more questions on Bridgegate than Obama has on all his scandals combined it’s damn close at this point.
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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Thursday and for the 2nd week in a row we start a Thursday at 30% of our weekly pay goal.

Since however reaching Thursday means over 58% of the week has passed that means we are once again in a hole.

When you think about it the hole isn’t deep at the start of a week a mere $50 a day avg will assure us of full coffers, but with only three days to go we need at least $80 a day for the next three days to make the goal with only a dollar to spare.

So While I’d be delighted to get the full $239 out of the way if we can get $140 we’ll be back on track for the week. Even a mere $80 today would be a third of the way home with three days left.

If you can help please consider hitting DaTipJar below..

Remember if we can get those 58 1/4 subscribers @ at $20 a month the bills will be paid every week. Help make sure this blog can fight without fear all year long.




 

Everyone is talking about Chris Christie these days.

Chris Christie as candidate, Chris Christie as moderate, Chris Christie as conservative, Chris Christie as RINO, Chris Christie as Winner, Chris Christie as Governor, Chris Christie as Republican Savior  etc etc etc.

There is however one aspect of Chris Christie’s that nobody seems to be talking about at all.  Chris Christie as party leader.

Chris Christie is the highest ranking GOP official in the state of New Jersey.  As such one of his unofficial duties  is to promote the GOP brand within the state.

I would expect he would be good at it.  For all the complaints we Tea Party types have his record in the state of NJ is rather good.  He’s held back Taxes, Cut funding to Planned Parenthood and spending overall,  cut business taxes etc etc etc.  And all of this had to be done while dealing with Democrat majorities in both houses.

So naturally I expect he’s love to see more Republicans in the state house to vote with him and make this job easier.  My favorite speech of his discusses this.  While I talk about the “grandfather”  part a lot  the entire speech deserves to be noted in terms of why you need to elect Republicans.

“35 years ago we didn’t have an income tax in NJ no income tax like right here in NH, we had no income tax and Governor Brendon Byrne, a democrat said: If you just give me a small income tax, a little one, I will lower your property taxes, we had the highest property taxes in America back in 1977 so 35 years later, what have we got? We’ve STILL got the highest property taxes in America and the income tax that started at 2% under governor Byrne is now 9%”

We would expect that Gov Christie would make the same case in the state that he made on the campaign trail nationwide doing all he can to help elect more republicans in NJ. After all a swing of 8 seats in the NJ House and 4 seats in the Senate would mean at least one chamber behind him.

Since Christie is so popular and won re-election so decisively one would naturally expect he brought success for the party with him. After all , if he is the poster boy for the GOP nationally he would be the model to elect party members following his lead all over the state right?

Despite Christie’s 60 percent showing on Tuesday, Republicans didn’t make up any ground in the state Senate.

Somehow that line in the Washington Post story Chrissie’s win got no play nationally, neither did this piece from NJ.com (emphasis mine)

Democrats in the state Senate and Assembly withstood Republican Gov. Chris Christie’s decisive victory over Barbara Buono on Tuesday, retaining majorities in both houses of the Legislature and ensuring at least four more years of divided government in Trenton.

With most of the votes counted Tuesday night, Democrats said they would hold onto their 24-16 majority in the state Senate. They also appeared to hold a majority in the Assembly — currently 48 to 32 — though they lost at least one seat.

One house seat? That’s it? You mean to tell me Chris Christie, the Savior of the GOP, the model for Republicans nationwide,  success in advancing his party within his own state was barely more successful than a camel spotter in an election he won by 20 points?

Contrast this to what the Tea Party,  that the GOP establishment hates,  did for Republicans during the big read wave of 2010 down ticket

in 26 states the Republicans now hold majorities in both legislative chambers, up from 15 before the election.

The GOP took control of the New Hampshire House and Senate, the Wisconsin Assembly and Senate, the Minnesota Assembly and State Senate and, for the first time in decades if not more than a century, both legislative chambers in Maine, North Carolina, and Alabama. They also won back control of the Indiana House, the Pennsylvania House, the Ohio House, the Iowa House, the Montana House, the Colorado House, and the Michigan House of Representatives while not losing control of a single chamber they already held.

and that’s not even counting the 63 seats in the US house.

Given the lack of coattails for the GOP that Chris Christie beings vs the Tea Party I can certainly understand why the media and the left keep pushing him forward as the great GOP hope, the GOP establishment, not so much.

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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Monday and DaTipJar is at $32. With the Magnificent Seven now on board that means I’m actually BEHIND last week when I was at $2 at this time.

I submit and suggest by giving an additional platform for Seven defenders of Conservative opinion here at DaTechGuy blog I have bigger coattails than Chris Christie did in 2013.

If you agree please hit DaTipJar below.

Chris: There’s a job for six men, watching over a village, south of the border.

Bernardo: How big’s the opposition?

Chris: Thirty guns.

Bernardo: I admire your notion of fair odds, mister.

The Magnificent Seven 1960

Yesterday Protein Wisdom:

The rhetorical ground is already being set, with these two races its supposed proofs: look at how well Chris Christie did in a blue state! Look at how Cuccineli’s extremism lost us Virginia!

And PJ Media

Every GOP mainstream politician and consultant will spend the next few months completely incapable of saying little more than “Chris Christie!” They will have polls-OH!-will they have polls. Everyone will be taken as undeniable proof that Christie can beat Hillary, the zombie apocalypse, and the 1927 Yankees once time travel is a thing.

told us what the post election spin would be today and on Cue Morning Joe is going on today both about Ken Cuccinelli made told you what the MSM would say the lessons of VA & NJ are. If only Cuccinelli was not so extreme, and Chris Christie proved how the GOP can win in a blue state and is the model of 2016.

Let’s start with NJ

Chris Chrsitie won by 20+ points and a lot of credit has to be given to his policies and himself in winning that state at all, let alone by 20 points. He was and is clearly better for NJ than the democrat and the voters recognized it, but what nobody talked about until election day itself was in a state where National Democrats decided not to play:

From President Obama, who twice toured New Jersey with Christie after Hurricane Sandy and then failed to endorse Christie’s challenger

Hold on President Obama didn’t even offer a pro-forma endorsement of the Democrat Pro-abortion woman?

to the Democratic National Committee, which sent just one staffer to the state to fortify local efforts,

The DNC sent one staffer?

to major donors and high-profile party leaders such as Bill and Hillary Clinton, powerful Democrats have stayed on the sidelines in the blue state contest

(A cynical person might consider this the pro-quo for that arm the week of election day but I digress)

Well while the left and Morning Joe (which usually likes quoting the Daily Beast didn’t find that story newsworthy they DID report on the exit polls in NJ that showed Chrsitie doing well in all demographics.

There are some significant stats that give good news to the GOP nationally which I’ll talk about tomorrow but lets note the following, Chris Christe won men by 37 pts & women by 15 pts in the poll. He won latinos by 6 pts and took 21% of the black vote in a sample that approves of Obama with 51%.

All of that speaks well of Chritie who has done a good job in NJ (The 85% approval of the job he did with Hurricane Sandy.) but of all the stats from that poll, here is one that makes all the difference in the world.

The pollsters asked who would they support in 2016 Hillary Clinton or Chris Christie.

Well that should be an easy one. You have a poll of voters who just voted for Christie overwhelmingly this has to be the most favorable polling sample possible sample for Chris Christie. If Christie is going to win NJ for the GOP in 2016 he has to win this sample:

Christie

Christie loses to Clinton by 4 points, FOUR POINTS?

Excuse me? You have a race where no democrat money was spent, where you have photos of Barack Obama with an arm around Chris Christie, and a polling sample of people who voted for him by over 20 points and thinks he did a great job and from that sample he couldn’t outpoll Hillary Clinton in New Jersey?

I’m sorry The lesson is clear: If Chris Christie can’t outpoll Hillary with those advantages what does that say about his chances of winning democrats elsewhere when the full power of Democrat party and the MSM against him are slim and none and slim left town.

This is a trap set for the GOP in 2016 if they fall for it then it’s all over.

Now lets look at VA.

After leading by double digits for weeks Terry McAulffe managed to beat Ken Cuccineli by 3 points. The Narrative is he lost because he is a tea party candidate.

It is fair to say that in VA where so many gov workers the shutdown hurt the GOP (never mind the back pay voted meaning those workers essentially got a paid vacation) but here are some stories that got very little note.

Before Obamacare, before the shutdown Robert Stacy McCain said this

If Bob McDonnell had resigned Monday, there was about a 50-50 chance Cuccinelli could somehow change the subject between now and November and pull out a narrow win over McAuliffe. Every day that McDonnell remains in office, those odds diminish.

This is fact, not opinion.

Odd that the GOP wasn’t willing to do something about this to help out their candidate for Governor.

Then there is the libertarian who had an interesting source of funding:

A major Democratic Party benefactor and Obama campaign bundler helped pay for professional petition circulators responsible for getting Virginia Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Robert C. Sarvis on the ballot — a move that could split conservative votes in a tight race.

Campaign finance records show the Libertarian Booster PAC has made the largest independent contribution to Sarvis’ campaign, helping to pay for professional petition circulators who collected signatures necessary to get Sarvis’ name on Tuesday’s statewide ballot.

Now this is a tactic that people in elections have been using for years but it’s funny that it didn’t break until the day before the election and not in any MSM venue? Even odder was that the MSM didn’t even bother to mention the 3rd party candidate much until yesterday and Today Cokie Roberts had the audacity to claim it didn’t hurt the parties equally.

Yeah that’s why the Democrats funded him. Even Joe Scarborough wasn’t buying that.

Then there is the social conservative argument, the MSM contends that Cuccinelli’s social conservatism doomed him but there was an interesting story that got no press yesterday:

Del. Scott Lingamfelter, a Republican, said he received a robo-call on Sunday evening claiming that Cuccinelli supports the Affordable Care Act and taxpayer financing for abortions.

Cuccinelli vehemently opposes Obamacare, as the law is commonly known. He was the first state attorney general to challenge the law in court. He is also strongly opposed to abortion.

The recording said the Democratic Party of Virginia (DPVA) paid for it, Lingamfelter wrote in a post on his Facebook page.

“They are shameless in their lies,” he wrote. “I guess they are trying to suppress GOP voters” in the governor’s race.

Tell me if Cuccinelli’s pro-life position was a problem for him why does the left bother to spend money? That’s a good question and I’d love a good answer.

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Finally lets look at the GOP establishment and their actions, or shall we say inaction:

Four years ago the national GOP spent 9 million dollars in VA to elect a GOP governor. This time around?

They spent 3 million.

Now the idea that Terry McAuliffe Mr. UBER fundraiser was able to outspend Cuccinelli is not a surprise but the idea that the GOP cut their spending in the state by 2/3 well that wasn’t received well:

WE COULD HAVE WON THIS RACE. FOR THE REASONS I HAVE EXPLAINED HERE AND ON THE AIR, GOP ESTABLISHMENT AND DONORS LEFT THE FIELD. NOW, NOT ONLY THE LIBERALS BUT THE RINO MOUTHPIECES CONTINUE WITH THEIR MANTRA ABOUT THE DEAD TEA PARTY AND THE RINO FUTURE. ABSOLUTELY APPALLING! (And they did not spend even $3 million, that was a phony number.)

RT@seanmdav: In 2009, the RNC spent $9M to win VA by 17 points. Looks like it’ll have spent $3M in 2013 to lose by a hair. Dummies

Well that doesn’t prove the establishment wasn’t behind Cuccinelli I mean it’s not like popular GOP candidates didn’t show up for him to campaign.

 

Huh? I remember in 2012 Christie showed up to support Ovide Lamontagne in NH I covered him there.

Christie went to NH to campaign for Ovide and REFUSED to take a day during a race he was winning by 20 points to campaign for Cuccinelli?

I think that’s incredible, we are constantly told that Tea Party republicans need to hold their noses and stand by GOP moderates as I did with Mitt Romney and Gabriel Gomez. This tells me that as far as the GOP is concerned the opposite is not true.

So what is the lesson of Virgina? It’s this: To the Establishment GOP (and to Chris Christie) a victory by a Bill Clinton Democrat like Terry McAuliffe is preferable to a Tea Party candidate winning the governorship of Virginia.

In February after the GOP convention where the establishment used some interesting tactics to defeat a tea party candidate in Massachusetts I left the GOP ON camera

and wrote

If the party wants me and people like me they’ll have to earn me. When the GOP can convince me that they are serious about growing the party, when they convince me they are serious about treating the tea party et/al as valued members as opposed to a source of temp labor and occasional funds. I’ll be happy to return to the Republican Party in as public a fashion as I’ve just left it.

If the GOP is wants to be a minority party that gets their share of graft rather than a majority party that reforms the government this is the way to do it.

Update:  Via Instapundit

VIRGINIA: Did The GOP Blow It Because Of Fear of the Tea Party?

Short answer YES.  The details:

it’s hard to deny the conclusion that the Republican party decided it was better to abandon Virginia to the Democrat party than to allow the Tea Party and social conservatives to win.

Here they are:

  • The Republican National Committee spent three times as much in 2009 on the same race as they did this year.

  • The Chamber of Commerce spent one million dollars in the last Governor’s race, and not one dime on Cuccinelli.

  • While its often claimed that Tea Party candidates do poorly among independents, Cuccinelli actually won independents by 9 points, 47 percent to 38 percent.

  • “McAuliffe outraised Cuccinelli by almost $15 million,” and in the last weeks of the campaign, this left Cuccinelli with nearly no media exposure.

  • Even Politico wonders if Cuccinelli was beginning to turn the tide against the “War on Women” narrative, as he drove down McAuliffe’s lead among women from 24% in polling to 9%.

We’ll remember.

Update 2:  For some reason the left hasn’t found Ramesh Ponnuru all that quotable today:

The “party establishment” (to simplify) is putting some of the blame on the shutdown, and the anti-establishment conservatives are putting a lot of the blame on the former’s stinginess; Cuccinelli’s campaign manager is blaming both. The results in the state legislative races, and the possible victory of Mark Obenshain in the AG race, make it hard to credit any theory that the Virginia electorate is just hostile to conservatism in general, or to social conservatism in particular.  (emphasis mine)

I wonder why?

Update 3:  Jonah Goldberg NAILS it

For all the talk about how the base needs to cooperate with the establishment more, it’s worth remembering that the base almost always does its part on Election Day. Its the establishment that is less reliable in returning the favor.

Because the love our votes but love the K-Street spending more.

Update 4: Dan Riehl:

I don’t care if you want to blame the RNC, the RGA, the NRSC, the media and young dumb Republicans like a Josh Holmes, Brian Walsh and Brad Dayspring who live to run to it to get their names in print bashing their own base.

The fact is, the establishment GOP cost, not just conservatives, but its own damned party the governorship in Virginia.

Someone, or some few people need to be held to account and yes, some heads should roll. Now, all they want to talk about is ObamaCare. As far as I’m concerned, there’s a little unfinished business to address before we get there.

Update 5: Mark Levin vs Renice

Apparently Christie will have time to campaign for Lindsey Graham.

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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Wednesday and I need 13 tip jar hitters of $20 to make my $305 paycheck.

With the need to support myself and cover Chris, Vin, Harry & Bernardo next week it’s not a good sign.

But you can change that, if you think this analysis is worth your while please consider hitting DaTipJar below

Remember how during the last election the left saying there were people trying to bring back the days of Jim Crow? Apparently they were right:

After a lively debate, at 6:30 in the video, Jackson—the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor—attempts to shake hands with Northam, who will not shake it and doesn’t even look Jackson in the eye.

At first, a viewer might give Northam the benefit of the doubt that somehow he doesn’t see the extended hand. But Jackson dispels that doubt by taking his outstretched hand to tap Northam on the arm and then re-extends his hand almost into Northam’s lap. Northam still refuses to take it.

I’ll leave the: They told me if I voted for Mitt Romney… line for Glenn and just end with this:

If Virginia Lt. Gov candidate Ralph Northam was a Republican and Virginia Lt. Gov candidate E.W. Jackson was a Democrat there would be no other story on any of the Cable news networks at the top of the hour, reporters would be dogging the top of the GOP ticket to denounce Mr. Northam and civil rights leaders around the nation would be demanding he drop out of the race.

But because Mr. Northam is a Democrat and the Reverend E. W. Jackson is a Republican this will remain a non-story until there is no change of it effecting Terry McAuliffe chances to win.

Unbiased media my …

New York Magazine is making fun of Pam Geller

Noted subway-uglifier Pamela Geller has a new target for one of her terrible ad campaigns: The “communist” Bill de Blasio, and his horrifying proposal to stop the NYPD from spying on Muslims without evidence of a crime. The new ads, set to go up in the week before the election, accuse de Blasio of essentially partnering with terrorists to turn New York into a communist hellscape.

They go heavy on the Snark, how DARE Pam Geller support scrutiny of NYC mosques!

That’s probably why they banned her in England, if only more people in NYC had the opinion of Pam that the British Government did, perhaps we would see fewer crimes like this:

Just after midnight they were walking down Commercial Road when the CCTV film shows them being followed by a group of men.

Police say there was a confrontation and an exchange of words and the suspects became threatening and aggressive. One grabbed a bottle the victim was drinking from and smashed it against his face.

The group pursued the victim as he ran across the road to escape. They chased after him and continued to beat him before walking away.

It’s a shocking thing when innocent Muslims are the victims of such violence here in America…

…oops my bad, the victim is an American Student in London beaten by “Asians” because he was …ahem….different

“As a result of this incident I am now scared to go out on my own in London. I am a visitor to the UK and was considering continuing my studies here but this incident has made me think twice.

“I feel very emotional about the whole situation. I also now face the rest of my life with the permanent scarring that will be left on my face as a result of this attack. Every time I look in the mirror from now on I will be reminded of this incident.”

Detective Constable Ben Mott, of Tower Hamlets police, said: “We believe the suspects picked a fight with the victim as he was obviously not from the local area and they took exception to the fact that he was a bit different.

Well just because this stuff is happening there it doesn’t mean violence and abuse are happening Here in the US in places like say Ohio…

According to the police report, it all started when the teacher said how impressed she was with their knowledge of the Quran.

In response, one of the students told her that, at their religious school, “if they do not learn their religious passages as they are instructed,” they are sometimes “chained to a wall by their wrists and ankles and beaten with a long stick.”

I should note neither of those stories didn’t originate from Pam Geller but were out there in other media and untouched by anyone but Pam. I’ll give her the last word:

The media had been advised of this press conference repeatedly over the last several weeks. “However,” Geller continued, “No media was present. If a Soros-funded group like Media Matters or the Center for American Progress had announced that it was holding a press conference to expose Joe Lhota, there would have been a stampede.”

An exit question for Adam Martin:

Do you think the London Beating or the Ohio School stories are newsworthy stories newsworthy?

I think that’s a great question:

Update: Obviously the title was to be NY mag not “My” mag, was typing while they were changing my cast at the Doctor’s today, a hat tip to Richard for catching it.

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Olimometer 2.52

Friday Continues and I’m still short $216 or so of a full paycheck

Are you willing to be one of them? If so please hit DaTipJar below

Last year I wrote a piece about Sarah Palin and her spending of Political Capital and earlier this year I noticed her decision to not spend that capital for Curtis Bostic in SC-1:

The essence of a smart political operator is to know when to spend said capital and when not to, when the expenditure will lead to success and when it is in vain. When such a move can lead to victory or when a defeat will be costly for the entire cause.

That she didn’t endorse in a state where she has endorsed before speaks volumes about this primary and none of it is good.

She was right Bostic lost, big!

Bottom line, Sarah Palin doesn’t spend capital without seeing a chance for a return. So this story from NJ was a real eye opener.

Palin, the former vice presidential candidate and Alaska governor, has officially become the third high-profile conservative to endorse Steve Lonegan in New Jersey’s special U.S. Senate race, praising the Republican’s commitment to smaller government and bashing his Democratic opponent, Cory Booker.

Palin’s endorsement isn’t given lightly and suggests that Lonegan cause is not as hopeless as some would like it to be. But an endorsement, even a Palin one can be considered cheap, after all Christie endorsed him too as would almost any republican. The real sign of risking political capital is if someone actually shows up to campaign. Chris Christie has the question is would Sarah Palin?

Well Palin has answered that question loudly:

Tea Party celebrity and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is on her way to New Jersey to campaign for Republican U.S. Senate candidate Steve Lonegan, his campaign said tonight.

Palin, the former Republican vice presidential candidate, will be at the New Egypt Speedway in Plumsted Township, Ocean County, for a Lonegan rally at 4 p.m. on Saturday.

Palin in person means money (for both sides) and attention, but it also means she considers this race close enough that she can make a difference, even in New Jersey.

That still makes it an uphill race in Jersey and Palin’s involvement guarantees that a Lonegan defeat will be happily blamed on her despite Booker’s huge advantage in money and name recognition in a blue state.

But Palin doesn’t play to lose and neither does Lonegan:

“Republicans need to hold firm because seven days from today when Bob Menendez escorts me down the Senate aisle for my swearing in, the message about what our party should do will be clear for all,” Lonegan maintained.

“I have come as far as I have in this campaign by ignoring the advice from all the pollsters and consultants who have told me to change what I think and change who I am,” Lonegan added. “New Jerseyans are looking for a leader who fights for working taxpayers, not a Hollywood wannabe like Cory Booker who will rubber stamp the President’s far-left wing agenda.”

It might be hubris but Lonegan fights from the front and fortune favors the bold.

Update: Apparently via insty, Mark Levin is spending Capital too

You wouldn’t think they would spend that much capital on a long shot, unless they see something.

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Olimometer 2.52

Two days left to DaPayweek the good news there has been movement and I’m now 38% toward a full paycheck.

The bad news that means I’m still 62% away ($189) but 8 readers hitting DaTipJar for $24 and I’m there.

Be one of them, hit DaTipJar below.

.

In 1977 leader piece2the most innovative wargame ever made, Squad leader was released by Avalon Hill.

I wrote about it last year but for new readers let me bring you up to speed.

Squad leader unlike most wargames at the time dealt with soldiers on a small level most pieces representing 12 men with some pieces representing individual officers or non-cons leading them. With a set of composite boards it was possible to re-create almost every small action history leaving to a remarkable amount of expansions that would eventually become advanced Squad Leader and a phenom.

The real innovation was the morale system. If a unit lost its morale it could not move or fire until a leader moved over and successfully rallied it. It didn’t matter how many more men you had, if you were not able to rally the troops you were toast.

Politics is the same way, money is very important but if the people working on your campaign, the people who work the phone and knock on the doors believe the battle is lost, if their morale is gone, then it takes a miracle to overcome it rallied it.

Sometimes a poll can be that miracle or that dagger in the heart.

PPP knows this so when I read this:

We did a poll last weekend in Colorado Senate District 3 and found that voters intended to recall Angela Giron by a 12 point margin, 54/42. In a district that Barack Obama won by almost 20 points I figured there was no way that could be right and made a rare decision not to release the poll. It turns out we should have had more faith in our numbers because she was indeed recalled by 12 points.

concerning the results of the Colorado recall elections:

An epic national debate over gun rights in Colorado on Tuesday saw two Democratic state senators ousted for their support for stricter laws, a “ready, aim, fired” message intended to stop other politicians for pushing for firearms restrictions. Senate President John Morse and Sen. Angela Giron will be replaced in office with Republican candidates who petitioned onto the recall ballot.

I simply didn’t buy it.

There is no reason why PPP couldn’t have released the poll saying and note how these results did not reflect what they would expect they could have given details on the methodology or noted the same things they did later in the article:

We did find on the poll though that voters in the district had a favorable opinion of the NRA by a 53/33 margin. And I think when you see the final results what that indicates is they just did a good job of turning the election more broadly into do you support gun rights or are you opposed to them.

But they gave away the game in the next two sentence

If voters made their decision based on the actual pretty unobtrusive laws that Giron helped get passed, she likely would have survived. But the NRA won the messaging game and turned it into something bigger than it was- even if that wasn’t true- and Giron paid the price.

Ah you see the NRA are just a bunch of liars so naturally we aren’t going to release this poll showing their winning, particularly in such a pivotal race.

I certainly have no business complaining about misinterpreting polls from last year, but I made my case openly and took my lickings when wrong.

I’d respect PPP a lot more if they had been willing to do the same as Nate Silver himself put it:

Legal Insurrection asked the best question:

that’s a very good question, I wonder if they have a good answer?

Mandy: You sound Scottish.
Amy: I am Scottish. What’s wrong with that? Scotland’s gotta be here somewhere.
Mandy: No. They wanted their own ship.
Amy: Good for them. Nothing changes.

Doctor Who: The Beast Below 2010

Once upon a time there was a political party in Massachusetts called the GOP that regularly lost elections for National office and that party had a choice to make.

For the 2nd time in four years they had a chance to face a Democrat after a tough primary race alone on a ballot without city counselors, town clerks,  governors counselors, ballots questions ,  state reps or senators that might have voters who supported them to help increase the Democrat party vote.

The last time this happened everyone, including the party expected to lose.  But the Tea Party base was energized, they volunteered in large numbers and they helped draw volunteers and funds from members of the GOP base nationwide.  Their candidate, with nothing to lose,  embraced that base and highlighted a single key issue that polled well among both the party and independents who made up the majority of the electorate in the campaign.

With the money and manpower the teaparty base drew the polling improved and the state party and national party decided to help after all.

Not only did their candidate win but that fall the Party they had the best showing in state elections for rep they had in years.

But the GOP decided they didn’t like the Tea Party people or the base because they said they wanted a louder voice in the party and the candidate decided the people voted for him because they loved him so much and not because the Tea Party and base worked so hard, so they pushed them away in the next election.

They not only lost the national seat they had won, but lost some of their new state rep seats too.

But even though the GOP didn’t like them the tea party, the base didn’t go away because they wanted their state to be better for themselves and their children so when there was another chance to win a seat in the same way they did in 2010 they found a candidate they agreed with and supported them in straw polls all over the state.and said to the party:  “Please vote for our man and our people will come back and help beat the Democrats again.”

But the establishment decided didn’t want to support the tea party or the base’s man who agreed with them and wanted someone else.  So they thought and thought and came up with an idea.

You see the very smart people in the establishment of the national party noticed a lot of people had come to America and Massachusetts from a distant southern land called “Hispanica” and while culturally they seemed a lot like the base, they voted for the Democrats.  They decided this was because the law said the people from “Hispanica” who wanted to live in the US had to follow the same rules as people from England, Congo or even India, but they didn’t want to.  So the party decided if they made a new rule that allowed anybody who broke the law coming to America to stay all the people who came from “Hispanica” and their children who already were here would decide they would not hate the GOP any more and maybe vote for them.

So they found a candidate who not only supported that new rule but whose mom & dad came from “Hispanica” so he spoke the  language of “Hispanica” so that all the people whose families came from that southern land would see him and say:

“Look this man is the very first from our home of “Hispanica” to run for senate so we will support him even though the Democrats have told us for years that the people in that party were bad and hated all people from “Hispanica” and wanted to take away the money the government gives to some people who come from there.”

So the party backed him even though the base and tea party didn’t agree with him saying they might stay home, and the national donor base didn’t give him money to hire people to help him win either because he supported laws they hated.

The party establishment didn’t worry.  They were much smarter than the base or the tea party and knew because their candidate supported the new rules that the national establishment did and was a child of “Hispanica” he would make all the people from “Hispanica” decide to vote for him.

Election day came and even through the Democrats had plenty of money and their machine was ready to roll their candidate only managed to draw 60% of they votes the very bad candidate did in 2010.

So to win the GOP only needed to draw 55% of the voters they did in 2010.  In some towns where the base was larger than others , voters said: “Even though you disagreed with us and the “Establishment” doesn’t like us we think you are better than the other guy” and voted for him.

But even though he won those towns and cities many of the base in those towns stayed home and didn’t come to vote  so he didn’t get a lot of votes extra votes.

But they still weren’t worried because their candidate supported the new rules and was a child of “Hispanica” so he would make all the people from “Hispanica” decide to vote for him.

So on election day they went to a city with many people from “Hispanica” and said: “Look our candidate is a child of Hispanica just like you! Come vote for him!”  But the people of that city said: We’ve never heard of a country called “Hispanica” Our parents come from a country called “The Dominican Republic” and they voted for the party they always did.

Then they went to another town and said “Look our candidate is from the land of Hispanica just like you” and the people of that town said: “We’ve never heard of a land called ‘Hispanica” our fathers came from a land called “Brazil” and they voted for the party they always did.

And everywhere the story was the same, the people never heard of “Hispanica”, they said their fathers had come from places like “Mexico”, “Puerto Rico”, “Peru”, “Ecuador” and all those people voted for the same party they always did.

So when all the votes were counted the GOP got less than 45% of the people who came to vote for the party just three years ago and they lost the best chance they would have to win for a very long time…

…and they blamed the Tea Party and the Base.

The Moral of our tale? There are two:

There is no land of “Hispanica”.  Instead there are 25 Latin American counties with different cultures, peoples and traditions so stop pretending people from those lands will vote for you just because you ran someone named “Gomez”.

You can’t add to your vote total if you chase away the base of voters most likely to support and finance you.

The End.

Update:  One more moral, no matter how good an idea you have for a post, if you finish it at 1:30 AM sleep on it and post it in the morning after you proofread it with a full night’s sleep under your belt.

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Olimometer 2.52

One upon a time there was a conservative who lost his job in the Tech Industry and started to write and report on politics. He worked very hard and after 5 years built a following and managed to start a radio show but like many new business’ couldn’t afford to draw a pay.

So he asked his many readers if 15 of them a week would be willing to kick in $20 so he could draw enough of a monthly pay to afford his $1210 mortgage

For four months he was able to do so but in the fifth month his draw was not as successful so by Wednesday morning he was still $138 short on a weekly paycheck and $499 short of the mortgage payment.

So he asked if 7 more readers could kick in $20 to make the paycheck to start and then perhaps he could find others willing to cover the $361 defect for the month.

I’m afraid you will have to decide how the story ends.

I drove around a bit today visiting campaign location. Here is what I saw.

I also called around to contacts and I seemed to be hearing the same message over and over.

Democrats not all that enthused about Markey

Not much of a Hispanic Turnout

A very low turnout expected but in some areas not as horrible as they thought, slightly better than primaries.

Additionally I’ve been talking to democrats who have said bluntly they have gone to vote for Gomez and I’ve heard this more and more today, much more than expected not because they really like Gomez, but they figure they can give him a shot for 18 months rather than for a 36 year guy.

Put bluntly I’ve been seeing an awful lot of the Coakley type reaction from Democrats willing to either stay home or vote Gomez, but I haven’t seen the same enthusiasm for Gomez that I saw for Scott Brown.

There is also one other thing going on here.

Not a single democrat has any skin in this game, no city pol, no other statewide office no nothing. The only motivation for any person to go and vote for Ed Markey is because they either:

1. Like Ed Markey or

2. Hate Gabriel Gomez.

What does that mean?

It means he has a chance, and if enough of the tea party people like myself bit the bullet and turn out for him (and I’ve done my best to make that case over the last couple of weeks) he can win this.

The irony is if he wins it will not be so much because of the Hispanic vote coming out for Gomez, or for tea party people coming out for Gomez, it will be because the democrats and independents who bothered to turn out decided he was worth a chance for 18 months because they can always replace him.

Oddly if he loses a close one, it will almost certainly be because that small base of the party stayed home.

BTW the question becomes, Why didn’t I have this post up before?

Two things:

1 All my evidence was anecdotal.

2. I know what side I’m on and unlike some in media I’ve never pretended otherwise

I’ve been calling people and trying to convince tea party people to turn out, that there were signs that things might be turning and the last thing I wanted to do is give the Markey people a heads if they had no idea this stuff was going on.

I’d rather shut up and help facilitate a possible longshot GOP win than to alert the Democrat machine that has the money and the manpower to get last-minute people out.

If some of you are upset because of this I’ll have to deal with it.

Update: Race called for Markey with about 80% of the vote, apparently pretending south of Texas and Florida is one giant country called “Hispanica or Latinia” is no substitute to actually having a candidate the inspires the base to work for them, and wouldn’t it have been nice to have a candidate that GOP workers and cash would have been willing to come from out of state to work?

Other seed fell on rocky ground where it had little soil. It sprang up at once because the soil was not deep. And when the sun rose, it was scorched and it withered for lack of roots.

Mark 4:5-6

Today is election day and Gabriel Gomez faces an uphill battle to win what should be a well deserved victory against career pol Ed Markey.

Unlike the Scott Brown race there has been no democrat panic at the very end and not even an outlier to suggest that Gomez might make the same and no rush of national bucks to save the day (although anything is possible)

Yesterday at a Tea Party event I saw the leader who is both a tea party member and active in the local GOP committee (if only the GOP had someone like this as chairman) who I’ve seen at standouts and events for Gomez talk about her conversation with him this weekend extolling his virtues and I took off my “blogger” hat to make one final pitch to the tea party faithful assembled quoting from this piece that even if we have objections on some issues that it is vital that we get out and vote Gomez and encourage others to do so.

That such a pitch has to be made at a tea party event shows the difference between 2010 & 2013.

In 2010 nobody outside of Massachusetts gave Scott Brown a chance to win, when the GOP was giving only “pro-forma” support the Tea Party was active, working hard for Brown. It was the grass roots, the bloggers who led.

Brown campaign declared himself “Nobody’s man but your own” he ran on personality, and the closest thing he did to distancing himself from the tea party was declining to have Sarah Palin come to campaign for him. It was only when the National GOP saw that the Tea party and the grassroots were ready to drag him over the finish line did they jump in.

Brown’s victory, inspired activists nationwide and made the 2010’s Big Red Wave Possible giving the GOP the majority but also sent a wave of tea party members who voted not in deference to the GOP establishment but based on the support of the people.

While national republicans  appreciated their chairmanships they didn’t like having to bow to the people who made them possible.

In the next cycle the establishment supported non-tea party people in primaries, for congress and for president, Scott Brown distanced himself and the CPAC conservatives who once welcomed him as a hero noticed. In return while declaring they would vote for him, they would not work for him and without that grass root support both Mitt Romney and Scott Brown lost re-election (I suspect this had a lot to do with his decision not to run for this Senate seat).

Flash forward to 2013 a contested GOP primary for the seat Kerry once held. A conservative Tea Party candidate Mike Sullivan is winning straw poll after straw poll over Gomez and the dynamic Rep Dan Winslow.  The National Party supports Gomez who pitches himself as a “new kind of Republican” and gives him a huge money advantage and when election day comes Gomez has won over 50% of the vote  and the right to face Democrat Ed Markey.

And that’s where the miscalculation came in.

To the national party Gabriel Gomez was a dream candidate, Navy Seal, Vet, successful businessman and LATINO!

But to the grass roots locally and nationally didn’t care Gomez’s race, they looked at his positions. Pro Manchin/Toomey, Pro Gang of Eight, Pro Global Warming declaring himself “A New Kind of Republican” as if there is something wrong with being a member of the GOP.

I don’t blame Gomez. He has never to my knowledge attacked the tea party and has been very forthright about his positions not even bending before a conservative Fox News Sunday audience.  That’s more honorable than one who says one thing during a campaign to get money & votes and then flips. (hi Senator Rubio, how ya doin?)

Nationally the Grassroots who felt themselves burned with Scott Brown and Mitt Romney kept their pocketbooks closed. You saw no stream of activists rushing to Massachusetts to ring doorbells and sell Gabriel Gomez to the people of the state and locally one of the most prominent conservative commentators urged people to just stay home.

And that’s why on the eve of an election where every hand need to be on deck to stop a career poll like Ed Markey who votes dem 98% of the time I was obliged to make a pitch to Tea Party members to show up and vote for GOP candidate Gabriel Gomez.

That’s a really bad sign.

Perhaps I’m wrong, perhaps Latino voters who have been rather silent during this race will turn out in huge numbers without the left shuttling them to the polls or without local activist groups bringing them to vote for the first of their own ignoring those who call Gomez a LINO (Latino in name only)  For the sake of my state and my country I hope they do

If not the Miracle Max video in Ed Morrissey’s post will be quite apt.

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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Tuesday and the weekly paycheck has moved forward only 12 more readers kicking in $20 are needed to give me a full check for the first time in June.

Yeah even if I make the paycheck I’ll still be short $354 for the mortgage but one target at a time.

For now I’ll worry about finding a dozen of you willing to hit DaTipJar below and get me to that first goal. Then I’ll worry about finding 18 more.