deadelephant
RIP GOP

by baldilocks

Barring something (sort of) unforeseen, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States. That one of them will be the Leader of the Free World in January is merely the tail end of an ideological splintering that has been going on since the end of Ronald Reagan’s second term.

And today, we have the President Reagan’s Vice President and successor driving my point home.

Former President George H.W. Bush is bucking his party’s presidential nominee and plans to vote for Hillary Clinton in November, according to a member of another famous political family, the Kennedys.

Bush, 92, had intended to stay silent on the White House race between Clinton and Donald Trump, a sign in and of itself of his distaste for the GOP nominee. But his preference for the wife of his own successor, President Bill Clinton, nonetheless became known to a wider audience thanks to Kathleen Hartington Kennedy Townsend, the former Maryland lieutenant governor and daughter of the late Robert F. Kennedy.

The former president has chosen not to comment on the topic–at this point–and his spokesman tells the reporter in spokeshole-speak that it’s none of the public’s business how the elder President Bush plans to cast his vote. Bull Twinkies.

President GHW Bush would never have told Townsend—a Democrat, of course–what his plans are if he didn’t want that information in public. The man is 92-years-old and he doesn’t care anymore, as if he ever did. If the report is true, call it one more stab into the heart of the old GOP.

It’s almost dead, Jim.

Update (DTG): One more thing I’d like to add to Juliette’s piece.

All this stuff happens for a reason, this story came out at this time for three reasons

1. It was necessary to change the subject from the Terror attacks which hurt Hillary

2. It was necessary to get this out there so Lester Holt could ask Donald Trump about it before the 1st debate.

3. This is a blatant attempt to bait Donald Trump to attack President Bush allowing the MSM to feign moral outrage over his response and demand every GOP senate candidate, congressional leader and spokesman to denounce Donald Trump for attacking the 92 year old ex-president.

How obvious can you get?

Juliette Akinyi Ochieng blogs at baldilocks. (Her older blog is located here.) Her first novel, Tale of the Tigers: Love is Not a Game, was published in 2012. Her second novel will be done in 2016. Follow her on Twitter.

Please contribute to Juliette’s JOB:  Her new novel, her blog, her Internet to keep the latter going and COFFEE to keep her going!

Or hit Da Tech Guy’s Tip Jar in the name of Independent Journalism—->>>>>baldilocks

Yesterday we talked about how for the GOP their real fear is that key patronage positions leading to increased power would go to people whose primary loyalty was to Trump and not to party.

That is the reason why they are potentially willing to elect a woman who was willing to leave Americans in trouble to die rather than risk a Trump presidency.

But here on Election day, as I celebrate the end of robo calls that have been never-ending It occurs to me that if he wants, Mr. Trump has the ability to craft a far more effective revenge on the GOP than a mere 3rd party run.

Here in Massachusetts I’ve gotten robo calls for presidential candidates (I say vote Cruz) and state rep candidates (I say vote Tran) but the greatest number of calls I’ve received have been for candidates for the GOP state committee. (I say vote Frank Ardinger & ignore the Gov’s ticket)

You might recall that two years ago it was the attempt to silence activists on the committee and some deceptive arguments that sparked outrage and led to my own departure from the GOP.

You might also recall that just last week I wrote about Charlie Baker running his own slate of State Committee people who by an odd coincidence are targeting the conservative activists who were treated so poorly last time.

Now ask yourself this. What if Donald Trump decides to get involved in these races on the state level?

Picture for example if a Donald Trump, to use Massachusetts as an example, angry about how he’s treated decides next time around to run his OWN slate of GOP state committee people?

Picture Trump holding rallies in Worcester and drawing 5000, 10000 or 20000 and urging them to go to the pols and vote for a Trump slate. Picture him standing next to a candidate and giving him the Trump imprimatur.

Then picture if even a fraction of those people he draws turning up for what is normally a sleepy election with turnout so low the primary job of the police at the polling stations is to keep the elderly poll workers awake. Remember the height different between Governor Baker and Dean Tran at his rally. Well when it comes to drawing voters in an election Trump dwarfs Governor Baker in the same way.

Suddenly you don’t have a GOP state committee that looks like the establishment or like Charlie Baker, Suddenly you have a GOP state committee that looks like Donald Trump.

Now imagine that picture repeated state by state nationwide. Having nightmares yet GOP?

I can see the naysayers now: “Surely you jest, not only would that be very expensive but very time-consuming and what about the conservative activist and the Rand Paul activists etc they won’t go along with this?”

To that I say, Trump has the money, he has the voters, an he’s the type of guy who doesn’t forget slights so he’ll be highly motivated. It will keep his name in the headlines which he will love, and as for the activists, given how they’ve been treated by the party leaders I suspect they will not need a lot of persuasion to join a Trump attempt to “throw the rascals out”…oh and don’t call me Shirley.

And that’s just talking state Committees, it could get much worse for the party.

As I mentioned a bit back Ted Cruz did the establishment a big favor last time around by not endorsing in primaries involving incumbents. His treatment by the party will determine if that happens next time around.


In the last election cycle Ted Cruz did not challenge any sitting GOP incumbent, he didn’t endorse Matt Bevin when he was running against Mitch McConnell nor did aid John Cornyn’s worthy challenger Dwayne Stovall. In the current election cycle, frankly Senator Cruz is a tad busy…

…but what about next one?

Now picture Donald Trump in this scenario instead of Ted Cruz. Picture Trump holding huge rallies and bringing his turnout machine to the various states for primary opponents of GOP incumbents. Cripes he might even get Cruz to go along with him on this.

And picture the wall to wall coverage the MSM will give all these efforts, you’re talking more free media than the GOP can buy.

How fast with GOP incumbents fearful of such a scenario decide to line up behind Trump?

Now as I’ve said over and over. I’m a Ted Cruz man. I’ll be voting for him today and I URGE any person reading, particularly Trump people, to get behind Ted who is the conservative who has actually fought and paid the price to trying to do all of the things Donald Trump is now promising to get done. Along the same lineYesterday Pastor Kelly warned of the spiritual price of “win at any cost”.

But if the people don’t take my advice or the Pastor’s and go with Trump, then we must, as a republic respect their choice. I submit and suggest to the GOP establishment that trying to silence the voice of the voters, even if they choose the “wrong” candidate is not only the wrong thing to do, it’s the Dumb thing to do an it will have consequences far worse and longer lasting than they establishment fools realize.

GOP don’t say you haven’t been warned.

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Yesterday I wrote how the GOP’s establishment’s decision to go all in for Donald Trump is a pragmatic decision and in some ways quite logical because it does two things:

1. It acknowledges that the Primary System is designed to aid a front-runner and that Trump has put him self in a position to use it to his advantage better then their hand picked candidate has.

2. It allows them to attempt to Neutralize Ted Cruz who they hate more than anyone else.

In the short term this seems like a good move, it puts a billionaire on their side preserving a future $ stream and for them hopefully stops a potential president who would be less interested in providing long term wealth & position for connected friends of the establishment than actually doing the job.

Given that DC is the land of short term thinking this makes perfect sense, but the GOP is forgetting something huge.

Ted Cruz is a young man, he is going to be in the Senate for a very long time.

Furthermore any examination of the Cruz fundraising machine suggests not only does he have a national organization independent of the national GOP but one that is fundraising machine and volunteer machine that can be mobilized in practically every state.

Why does that matter?  Let’s take a trip down memory lane to Aug 27, 2013 and a piece called “Ted Cruz’s gift to the GOP establishment.

It commented on how Ted Cruz’s neutrality in races involving incumbent was considered a slap to the GOP establishment but I had a different view:

The MSM meme is:  Ted Cruz is sticking an eye in the establishment.  Ted Cruz being a maverick,  Ted Cruz  letting the whole world know he’s not going to be about helping entrenched power just because  it has an R next it its name!

The reality is he is doing exactly the opposite.

In fact one year later October 11th 2014 when Pat Roberts was in trouble….

Yesterday the Hill noted that Ted Cruz turned up in Kansas to say a few words on behalf of Pat Roberts (R-KS?) who is fighting for his political life to save a Senate seat that has belonged to the GOP since before I was born:

Tea Party favorite Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) waded into the Kansas Senate race Thursday, touting beleaguered Republican incumbent Pat Roberts as the contest’s only true conservative.

and I wrote at the time:

last year I argued that,  contrary to the conventional wisdom,  Ted Cruz was doing the GOP establishment a huge favor by staying out races which involved incumbent Republicans.  Yesterday’s appearance for Pat Roberts is the final piece in the puzzle whereby Ted Cruz, like Rand Paul before him, earns chits with the establishment GOP that he will be in a position to cash in during 2016 if he chooses to do so.

The GOP has now clearly told Ted Cruz that those chits are worth squat.

Fine.

The GOP is forgetting that every two years there is an election where the entire house is up for re-election and 1/3 of the Senate is and also regular elections for governors as well.

Now ask yourself this:

What would be the fastest way to build name recognition, to raise money for a run when the interests in the state are afraid of being on the wrong side of the sitting senator in the room?

A Ted Cruz endorsement.

In the last election cycle Ted Cruz did not challenge any sitting GOP incumbent, he didn’t endorse Matt Bevin when he was running against Mitch McConnell nor did aid John Cornyn’s worthy challenger Dwayne Stovall.  In the current election cycle, frankly Senator Cruz is a tad busy…

…but what about next one?

Ted Cruz is 45 years old.  He has the potential to be around for 10, 15 maybe even 20 election cycles.  He has a set of principles which are absolutely unshakable.  And like a congressman from Texas named Rayburn he can not be bought.

I mention Sam Rayburn because I want to tell a story to the establishment GOP about Mr. Cruz’s fellow Texan.  One day a  congressman walked over to him and lied to his face claiming that he dare not vote with Mr. Sam (as Rayburn was called) on a bill he cared about due to opinion in his district.  Rayburn answered him directly:

So don’t you come crawling across the room telling me you wish you could have voted for the bill ’cause you didn’t have the guts to.

This according to Robert Caro on page 330 of his Book Lyndon Johnson the Path to Power is what happened next:

A young state senator who had considered challenging the Congressman for his seat had dropped the idea because he didn’t have enough political clout.  Not a week after his confrontation with Rayburn, the Congressman walked into the house Dining room for lunch and saw the legislator sitting there—at Rayburn’s table.  When the legislator returned home he had all the clout he needed.

Now I won’t insult your intelligence to suggest that Ted Cruz is Sam Rayburn, he,  for example, could not & I suspect would not, do what Rayburn did,  making sure that the congressman above would not only lose election but be literally driven out of Washington.

But I will say this:  Picture being a sitting congressman or senator who every two or six years has talked the talk of conservatism but after re-election has voted with the establishment.  Picture being that member of congress in the house or senate coming home & finding Ted Cruz at a rally introducing a potential Tea Party challenger at a rally in your state?

Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) has.

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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

There was one of the rarest moments you will find in my twitter stream, a moment when I disagreed with the great Don Surber who was commenting on a Donald Trump Tweet:

Don then questioned if Ted Cruz was going to be around longterm and that’s when I showed him this interview from Oct 17th which someone still has under 1000 views on youtube.

There are two things worth noting concerning this interview it to understand them you need to see the RCP polling from that day

pols 101715

As you can see at the time of this interview It was Trump, Carson & Rubio Ted Cruz was polling at 7.6% 6th place at the bottom of the 2nd tier. Even Jeb Bush and Fiorina were ahead of him. In fact in NH he was 7th behind Kasich with 5.6% Yet…

1. At the time of the interview Cruz had just won a straw poll well publicized & promoted for months and opened to any REGISTERED NH VOTER beating not just Carson & Fiorina who were both polling double of him at the time but also Trump who despite drawing 4000 the day before just a couple of hours away, could not draw 25 registered NH voters to get him to the 2nd round.

It’s one thing to talk a ground game it’s another thing to have one.

2. In that same interview Cruz pointed out that his ground game in 24 states through March was completely paid for by automatic monthly contributions (which doesn’t of course include the normal one time contributions that were still coming in).

Since then Ted Cruz’s number have grown, his contributions have grown and I strongly suspect both his number of auto contributions and the number of states his ground game is active has also grown.

Given these facts If Cruz already had organization in place fully paid for in half the states 3 months ago when he was an afterthought, where do you think he is now as he sits 2nd nationally?

I submit and suggest his game has grown and once Iowa & NH are done a good chunk of that ground game money can be diverted to any state that hasn’t already been fully covered.

A lot of people are coming after Ted Cruz but unlike most of the Non Bush / Trump candidates with money to burn he didn’t play the short 1-2-3 state game “do good early and hope to build a ground game, he took some very good advice on building his house:

“Everyone who listens to these words of mine and acts on them will be like a wise man who built his house on rock.  The rain fell, the floods came, and the winds blew and buffeted the house. But it did not collapse; it had been set solidly on rock.  And everyone who listens to these words of mine but does not act on them will be like a fool who built his house on sand.  The rain fell, the floods came, and the winds blew and buffeted the house. And it collapsed and was completely ruined.”

Matt 7:24-27

The winds may blow from establishment pundits and the floods of attacks will buffet his campaign.  But it will not collapse, because he set it firmly on the rock of the grass roots, and on one other.

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This morning while figuring out what I want to say today I read two posts that clicked in my mind exactly how to explain the GOP establishment.

One of them was at Instapundit and linked to a piece by Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight on Donald Trump & Polls titled One less reason to be skeptical of Trump.

He listed reasons to be skeptical of Trump success and added one that was not data driven saying he expected the GOP Establishment to do all it could to stop him:

But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:

  • The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated.
  • Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better.
  • Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president.
  • An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.)

You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.

Now let’s look at Pastor George Kelly’s of my magnificent seven’s piece Is he or She a Conservative.  It’s the piece that precedes the one you’re reading now on this blog and notes the records of four candidates Rubio, Cruz, Trump and Carson. It’s Rubio & Cruz that I am thinking of here.

  • Senator Marco Rubio possesses a lifetime (ACU) score of 98%. One would venture to say that Mr. Rubio’s impeccable conservative credentials should be beyond dispute.

Alas, this is not the case.

Senator Rubio committed for many Immigration Hawks the unpardonable sin by supporting the GANG of 8’s Immigration Reform measures.  For this he has obtained the wrath of Boarder Security Conservatives.

Nevertheless, Mr. Rubio has been in the Senate for four (4) years and his voting record and public service testify that he is a True Conservative.

State Representative Marco Rubio was Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives when he mounted a race for the US Senate and ran against former Republican Governor Charlie Crist.

Mr. Rubio ran as a Tea Party Conservative; this writer is shocked and somewhat baffled over how anyone could call Marco Rubio “an establishment Republican.”

I’ve actually wondered that myself, I think what’s cost Rubio has been his attempts to spin what he did (or rather the spin of some of his supporters) instead of just saying.  Boy I tanked that didn’t I?  Pastor Kelly continues with Ted Cruz (who I’ve endorsed)

  • A look at Senator Ted Cruz of Texas’s (ACU) scores is equally impressive: Senator Cruz has a lifetime rating of 100%!  This is an astounding voting percentage (two years of Senatorial service).

Mr. Cruz is an intellectual wonder who graduated with distinction from both Princeton and Harvard Law School.

A similarity of both Senators reminds Conservatives of how far they have come since President Obama became President:  Both of these Senators are products of “The Tea Party Movement”; and both men ran against the Republican establishment.

A brief look at the two young Senators (Rubio & Cruz) is a testimony to the Intellectual and Political transformation that has affected our nation since William F. Buckley, Jr. founded “National Review” in 1955.

As the old song states, “You’ve come a Long Way Baby!”

Both Misters Rubio and Cruz are certifiably “CONSERVATIVE!

Now lets consider one other thing.  As Mr. Silver the party establishment is going all out to destroy Ted Cruz in Iowa.  At the same time the big money superpac for THE establishment candidate Jeb Bush who is floundering in both Iowa and NH and currently running 4th in his home state of Florida has been on an advertising blitz in NH going all out attacking not Donald Trump the leader, not Ted Cruz, not John Kasich who is supported by the Sununu family one traditional Bush family allies but Marco Rubio.

This tells me one of two things.

The Establishment GOP is still looking to nominate Bush and the plan is to take out both Cruz and Rubio early so that Jeb can be the only candidate standing as an alternative to Trump, the they can go all in against him.  Cruz gets the big guns attention because of his huge hard money advantage and incredible existing grass roots ground game in half the primary states already  & Rubio is left to Jeb’s moneybags on the theory that without a strong Iowa/NH showing he’ll can’t sustain his campaign long enough to make it to florida or be a threat afterwards leaving it Jeb vs Trump once again with the full might of the GOP ready to fight on Jeb’s side.

Under no circumstances can a conservative with the voting record of either Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz be allowed to be president.  Forget that both would be the first Hispanic to lead a major party ticket, forget Rubio’s gang of eight stuff.  We can’t take the chance that a tea party candidate be the head of the party particularly ones so solidly opposed to abortion.

Given the inability of anyone to land a punch on Trump (although Cruz’s latest ad is devastating) It’s possible that #1 is only Jeb plan.  After all the GOP establishment might be pragmatically thinking that they can’t stop Trump and the time to join is now while they can get something for it rather than later when it means nothing and his cooperation with their priorities will carry a higher price.

But given what I’ve seen of the GOP establishment in Washington , Massachusetts and particularly NH I think #2 is a pretty safe bet.

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As soon as they get here, we need to co-opt them.

Sen Trent Lott (R-MS) 2010 on Tea Party members

Yesterday I noted that one of the biggest benefactors of Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Donald Trump was Tina Fey.

And commented that Palin’s endorsement helped reassure Tea Party members concerning the Donald.

Palin’s pro-life credentials are impeccable, her reputation as a conservative is strong on all of the issues that matter to a lot of conservatives Palin has walked the walk.

The fact that she is willing to put that behind Trump is going to reassure a lot of people who were not quite sold.  It gives Donald Trump the thing he needed the most.

Because the Tea Party voter has been taken for a ride more than once so there is nothing that helps Donald Trump (and hurts Ted Cruz) more than an endorsement that allays those fears.

Well to paraphrase a bit of scripture, the endorsement giveth, and the endorsement taketh away:

Bob Dole, the former Kansas senator and 1996 Republican presidential nominee, has never been fond of Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. But in an interview Wednesday, Mr. Dole said that the party would suffer “cataclysmic” and “wholesale losses” if Mr. Cruz were the nominee, and that Donald J. Trump would fare better.

Because nothing elicits trust from the Tea Party than the ultimate symbol of the establishment GOP, a man who is actually a Jeb Bush chair attacking Ted Cruz and pushing Donald Trump

“I question his allegiance to the party,” Mr. Dole said of Mr. Cruz. “I don’t know how often you’ve heard him say the word ‘Republican’ — not very often.” Instead, Mr. Cruz uses the word “conservative,” Mr. Dole said, before offering up a different word for Mr. Cruz: “extremist.”

Mind you this is the same guy who didn’t have an issue with the allegiance to the party of other senators as Stacy McCain once put it:

It’s not just that I remember all the recent backstabbing and sellouts by Mitch McConnell and his GOP Senate cronies, but I also remember the history of Republican Senate majorities under such paragons of conservative leadership as Bob Dole and Trent Lott. I remember how GOP leaders begged and groveled in their vain attempts to retain the “party loyalty” of such stalwarts of Republican principle as Jim Jeffords and Arlen Specter. And then I think one more time about that Mississippi primary, you see, and the way all these things keep adding up in my mind . . .

I don’t remember Dole questioning the loyalty of either Jeffords or Specter, do you.  Meanwhile Dole suggested an alternative to Ted Cruz.  Who was it?  Jeb Bush who he endorsed?  John Kasich whose backing by the NH GOP establishment seems to be finally paying off?  Marco Rubio or Chris Christie?

Nope

But Mr. Dole, 92, said he thought Mr. Trump could “probably work with Congress, because he’s, you know, he’s got the right personality and he’s kind of a deal-maker.”

The remarks by Mr. Dole reflect wider unease with Mr. Cruz among members of the Republican establishment, but few leading members of the party have been as candid and cutting.

Oddly Enough Senator Dole is making the same case that I did concerning Donald Trump vs Cruz back in October when nobody was making that argument:

If Ted Cruz is in the White House, the excuses for not defunding Obamacare, for not defunding Planned Parenthood and for defunding the Import Export bank suddenly disappear. The GOP establishment which doesn’t mind show votes against such items will find themselves facing the disagreeable prospect of these things actually happening….

…If Ted Cruz is willing to take on practically his entire caucus as the junior senator against a powerful Senate leader how much more willing will he be willing to do so with the bully pulpit & the power that comes with it in his hands?…

…Now contrast that worry with what the Establishment will had to deal with in a Trump administration. Picture a group of people appointed by a pragmatic deal maker and picture the establishment and even the left having to deal with Trump and his appointees, many of whom will be self-made and have absolutely no loyalty to the conservative electorate that said establishment loathes so much.

Then finally consider Trump himself, he prides himself as being person who is a great negotiator and dealmaker. The problem with a dealmaker is the key question: “What do you give up to make the deal?”

If you are an Establishment republican or even a democrat that question will console you.

Meanwhile Senator Dole’s interview also provides a line so comical that I suggest you put down any drink you might be holding before you read it:

“Cruz is in the Senate, so maybe he’s part of the establishment. You know, I’ve never really known what the establishment was.”

As the senator is unsure what the “GOP Establishment” means Allow me to remind the Senator.

The establishment were the people who happily took the committee chairs when conservatives showed up to give the GOP majorities in 1994, 2010 and 2014 but were damned if they were going to let the voters who gave them those chairs tell the what to do.  They were the guys who condemned the porkbustersPorkbusters movement (remember them) when they called on the GOP to control spending when they were in charge:

I’ll just say this about the so-called porkbusters. I’m getting damn tired of hearing from them. They have been nothing but trouble ever since Katrina. We in Mississippi have not asked for more than we deserve.

but became born again deficit hawks once their chairs were lost:

The establishment GOP was determined that these “porkbusters” had to be stopped…and then in 2006 they lost the congress.

Suddenly John Boehner was speaking against spending

What’s the word for that?  UNEXPECTEDLY

Like the term “NY Values” the voters know what the term “Establishment GOP” means  and Ted Cruz isn’t it, as I put it years ago:

Power is congress is based on the ability to grant favors. The reasons millions of dollars are spent on lobbyists is because the votes on the house & senate floor, the spending on the White House can make or break a business and pay rewards many times what the cost of their investment is.

It’s one thing for the Establishment to get Tea Party votes in a special election but it’s another thing if they actually manage to change the culture of Washington, suddenly the revolving door from congress to wealth closes and that they can’t abide

and a Guy like Ted Cruz who isn’t even willing to pander in Iowa on Ethanol is a threat to their entire way of life:

What’s the point of a chairmanship if you don’t have the power of the purse?

And it’s not just their fortune, there are the hangers-on, the campaign groups, the consultants, the writers a whole group of people who feed off of them. Do you think they will jump off the gravy train willingly?

That why the Establishment walks a fine line, they will campaign for tea party votes when it costs them little.  They will even give lip service to their candidates, but the moment that comfortable life is threatened they will happily join with the left and media to destroy them.

After all even a ranking member of the minority has influence enough to gain power & wealth for friends.

As AllahPundit puts it Dole & others in the GOP establishment, you know those pols that Mr. Trump has bragged about buying in the past, figure, rightly or wrongly, that with Trump they can make a deal to keep their gravy train rolling.

In fairness to Dole, what he says about Trump being more willing to play ball with the Republican Congress is almost certainly true. That’s the real reason to fear Trump as president if you’re a conservative — not that he’s going to do something nutty but that, in order to fill his ideological void, he’s going to get rolled by Beltway Republicans. Trump will be a softer touch for centrist GOPers like Dole as president, especially given his centrist inclinations, and Dole not only knows it, he prefers him because of it.

Senator Dole’s interview signals several things:

It’s a signal to the Tea Party that the establishment thinks Ted Cruz would finally end their gravy train and must be stopped at all costs.

It’s a signal that if the establishment wants to make a deal with Trump later to keep the good times rolling they had better get on board with him now when it would still mean something.

But most of all the Dole interview signals this:  Senator Dole & the GOP establishment aren’t afraid that if Ted Cruz, a young dynamic candidate who would be the first Hispanic to head a major party ticket,  is nominated the GOP would lose to Hillary Clinton and the democrats…

… they’re afraid he would win.

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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

Last week I said after this next election if nothing changes it’s time to leave the GOP and go 3rd party. This weekend Sarah Palin while agreeing on the budget deal

The GOP establishment in Congress is our abuser. We can’t hide the black eyes any more. The whole neighborhood knows. The Democrats are gloating. Obama thanked Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)58%
effusively – and why shouldn’t he? Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)9%
couldn’t have given him more.

And where was the famed House Freedom Caucus – those stalwart conservatives who spearheaded Boehner’s ouster? They were shrugging and handing us a bag of frozen peas to put on our black eye. If we’re lucky, maybe they’ll call 911 for us when the beating starts up again.

This is shameful, and it has to end. No mas!

Makes the case against leaving the GOP

that’s what the GOP establishment wants us to do!

They want us to leave the Party or just sit out elections.

Without us around, their handpicked puppets can be elected in gerrymandered districts without any pesky conservative primary challengers.

The Congressional GOP establishment doesn’t care about winning national elections. As far as they’re concerned, Hillary can have the White House – just so long as they can keep their cushy jobs on Capitol Hill.

In fact, having a Democrat in the White House is probably good for business. They don’t want to have to lead on anything

Her solution make THEM leave

So, no, it’s not time to leave the GOP. We’re going to make our abusers leave.

I like the sentiment, but I’d still like to know how it’s going to be done, because as far as I can see the only way they are going to have a change of heart is if we have them by their privates and the only way that happens if is if their jobs are in danger.

And the best way for that to happen is to put safe seats in jeopardy, I submit and suggest that the only way to do that is a conservative 3rd party that can decide to endorse a GOP candidate if they choose the conservative path or to run our own candidate and let “safe” republican seats become not so safe anymore, after all the “cushy job” depends on that safe seat still being there.

I’m a huge fan of Sarah Palin and if she has a plan to achieve this within the GOP I’d be delighted to hear it.

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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

If you want to understand the difference between the GOP & Dems here it is:

Start with Nancy Pelosi on the spending bill from the Hill:

“We’ve had to sort of calibrate how we presented this to members because … we were afraid [Republicans] might pull things out if more Republicans knew about what was in the bill,”

You will note that Pelosi was afraid of what Republicans would do if they knew what they were voting for but that fear is nothing compared to their fear of their own base because when Bernie Sanders did this:

Bernie Sanders’ campaign on Friday sued the Democratic National Committee in federal court after the party organization withheld the campaign’s access to a crucial voter database.

The internal warfare exploded after the DNC cut off Sanders from the database and said the Vermont senator’s presidential campaign exploited a software error to improperly access confidential voter information collected by Hillary Clinton’s team.

and started a hashtag campaign #stormthednc the Democrats folded in under 24 hours:

Sanders’ campaign claimed that the DNC “capitulated” as a deadline neared for a court hearing on a request for an emergency injunction that the Sanders campaign sought after suing the DNC in federal court Friday afternoon.

Sanders’ lawsuit sought the “immediate restoration” of the campaign’s access to the database, arguing that the campaign would lose roughly $600,000 a day in donations without it. The campaign said in a statement that its access to the database should be restored by Saturday morning.

“We are extremely pleased that the DNC has reversed its outrageous decision to take Sen. Sanders’ data,” Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver said in a statement. “Clearly, they were very concerned about their prospects in court. Now what we need to restore confidence in the DNC’s ability to secure data is an independent audit that encompasses the DNC’s record this entire campaign.”

 

Meanwhile less that 24 hours after Paul Ryan & Mitch McConnell stick a huge finger in the eye of their own base provoking rush to say this.

“And now the Republicans have the largest number of seats in the House they’ve had in Congress since the Civil War. And it hasn’t made any difference at all. It is as though Nancy Pelosi is still running the House and Harry Reid is still running the Senate. “Betrayed” is not even the word here. What has happened here is worse than betrayal. Betrayal is pretty bad, but it’s worse than that. … [W]e don’t even need a Republican Party if they’re gonna do this. You know, just elect Democrats, disband the Republican Party, and let the Democrats run it, because that’s what’s happening anyway.”

Mitch McConnell says this:

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Friday warned Republican voters to steer clear of nominating Tea Party candidates who can’t win in next year’s general election.

“The way you have a good election year is to nominate people who can win,” he told reporters during his final Capitol Hill press conference of 2015.

I think Glenn Reynolds put it best

AFTER WHAT HAPPENED THIS WEEK MCCONNELL NEEDS TO PERSUADE REPUBLICANS THAT IT MATTERS WHETHER GOP CANDIDATES WIN

Now here is the question. It’s a given that the GOP is the party of guns, in fact as Reynolds put it when it comes to Guns:

it’s one of the relatively few areas where the GOP hasn’t sold its constituents down the river, probably because it knows that gun-rights folks are attentive and unforgiving.

Yet the GOP is not afraid of their heavily armed base, while the Democrats are terrified of a bunch of college kids who protest against fried chicken.

What is the difference, I think it’s Christianity.

The left has a party that is rejecting christianity in droves. When you have a party that is pretty much secular there is no moral restraint on any action so the ability to predict the actions of people you offend is limited. Anything could happen.

The GOP on the other hand & the gun rights folks are still highly Christian and restrained by the commandments of Christ. They have the traditional beliefs that Americans have had for decades and because of this it takes a long time to reach the breaking point:

 

There were decades of problems with England before the colonies finally rebelled and even so only a 1/3 of the supported it.

We paid off the Barbary pirates for years before finally deciding Enough!

Impressment went on for many years before War was declared on England

Ten years passed between the Alamo and the Mexican war

The slavery issue boiled for decades before Sumter, Europe fought for 3 years before America jumped into World War I and if Japan didn’t hit Pearl Harbor FDR would have had a hard time getting the US to declare war on the Nazi’s.

Even in modern times, the 1st gulf war took months before things started. Without September 11th there are no wars in Iraq or Afghanistan and even in Iraq it was a very long build up to war and votes in congress before the bombs started falling.

 

I think the GOP knows this and that’s why it’s willing to push the base so far. I’m very glad the well armed GOP base they keep poking is heavily Christian, because the moment it becomes less restrained by the demands of following Christ is when their actions will have fatal consequences for the country and the world.

But the party needs to remember one thing, in all the examples I gave above, it took a long time for the people to reach the breaking point, but in each case they eventually did and once you push an armed population past its breaking point, the result is not pretty.

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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

During the last election cycle the GOP won historic victories not only taking the US senate but winning the Governor’s seats in states as Blue as Maryland and Massachusetts.

However in 2014 the big exception to that rule was in New Hampshire where the national GOP imported Scott Brown to run much to the delight of the GOP leadership and the disgust of the base as Granite Grok put it at the time:

Those are two important planks in the NH GOP Platform.  Another is that of “limited government” – and he voted for Dodd-Frank, the biggest intrusion of Government into business and our private lives evah (‘cepting Obamacare, natch) and we will blog about this in the future.  And if they don’t show up to vote for Brown, they also aren’t showing up to vote for the other Republicans down ticket.  But given the absolute “hugathon” for Brown that the Establishment Republicans have been drooling about for months now, I do wonder if it matters much to them about the folks just off stage instead of the one standing in the national Klieg lights.  How many time have I written concerning Republicans with the insinuations that we ought to just leave and run on our own:

We may not win, but you will surely lose

Especially here in NH where win margins in a lot of districts can be very thin indeed, the NH GOP has to struggle get to 50%+1; all I’d have to do is persuade 1.5 to 2 points to not vote.  And there are a lot of people out there that are no longer willing to vote for the lesser of two evils anymore.

Pro-Choice, Pro Gun Control, voted for Dodd-Frank: what’s the MAIN difference between Scott Brown and Jeanne Shaheen, NH GOP chair Jennifer Horn? 

I advised against this move calling the Scott Brown run:  “The Biggest Mistake the NH GOP can make

He lost by 3

Meanwhile in the Governor’s race the Establishment GOP in the state picked Walt Havenstein a candidate who actively insulted Tea Party members and refused to apologize.

He lost by five, and I suspect the reason why both Brown & Havenstein lost is best summed up by what grokster Rick Olsen wrote five months before the election:

I predict…If Havenstein is the nominee, he will not win against Hassan and the Democratic machine. …We’ve seen this trend in so-called Republican landslide years. But either way, I am voting for neither of these “kinged” choices. And I can say with certainty that I am not alone in that sentiment.

So given that sterling record you would think the NH GOP establishment party chair Jennifer Horn would have learned her lesson and stayed out of the GOP Presidential primary.

You’d think wrong:

New Hampshire GOP chairwoman Jennifer Horn seemed to have abandoned efforts to remain neutral in the 2016 GOP presidential primaries on Wednesday, taking the extraordinary step of attacking not just any GOP presidential candidate but the 2016 frontrunner for her own party’s nomination.

Because in a year when your GOP senator is running for re-election in what will be a tough race the last thing you need to do is demonize the current front runner for the party nomination.

Well at least she not attacking Trump voters, since she’ll need them for Kelly Ayotte’s Senate race.

Horn further attacked the voters who attend Trump’s rallies.

Hey it could be worse, they could be doing stupid things like trying to get Trump kicked of the ballot:

Now, along comes ol’ Fungus, so determined to damage the GOP that you’d think he was a Democrat plant, filing a complaint attempting to remove Trump from the NH ballot, due to expressed views inconsistent with the NHGOP platform. Shirley, he must be joking! Inconsistent? Like himself supporting the most liberal faux-Republicans? Like Morse and Bradley expanding Medicaid? Like Steve Duprey supporting Planned Parenthood? Like Juliana Bergeron supporting Gay Marriage? Like Shawn Jasper owned and operated by the Democrats?

I’m shocked that Scott brown & Walt Havenstein weren’t mentioned in that bit.

Meanwhile the Trump campaign shot back

Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, in a statement to the Union Leader, suggested that Cullen works for Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a Republican rival far behind Trump in the polls.

“Number one, Mr. Trump’s views do comport with the Republican Party and number two, from a constitutional stand point, there is such a thing as freedom of speech,” Lewandowski said. “To file such a document against the person who is not only the frontrunner, but leading by tremendous margins is outrageous. If anything like this would ever happen Mr. Trump’s supporters would probably riot in the streets of New Hampshire. This is yet another attempt by the failed GOP establishment to keep Mr. Trump off the ballot because they know he is the only one who can Make America Great Again.”

In response to Lewandowski’s claim, Cullen said he is not working for Kasich, and that he so far remains uncommitted. He and his wife Jenny held a house party for Kasich last weekend. He has also held events for Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham.

Mike Rogers nails it:

Methinks it is Trump who should be demanding a pledge of loyalty from the GOP! If this idiocy goes further up the food chain than Cullen, Trump will be liberated to run 3rd party, and will CRUSH the GOP’s chances – might even win without them. Sure, go ahead chumps, make his day!

I’m a Ted Cruz man I encourage all my NH friends to vote for him but I’ll tell you this, I’d enjoy watching the NH GOP Establishment collapse like the old man of the Mountain after A Trump win.

I really like Jonah Goldberg, he’s a fun writer, a sci fi geek like me and a clever fellow but I think Andrea Shea King absolutely nailed it in her open letter to him concerning Trump particularly with this list:

Here’s a list of those modern conservative “small(er) government” principles:

• Did the GOP secure the border with control of the White House and Congress? NO.
• Did the GOP balance the budget with control of the White House and Congress? NO.

• Who gave us the TSA? The GOP
• Who gave us the Patriot Act? The GOP
• Who expanded Medicare to include prescription drug coverage? The GOP
• Who created the precursor of “Common Core” in “Race To the Top”? The GOP

• Who played the race card in Mississippi to re-elect Thad Cochran? The GOP
• Who paid Democrats to vote in the Mississippi primary? The GOP
• Who refused to support Ken Cuccinnelli in Virginia? The GOP

• Who supported Charlie Crist? The GOP
• Who supported Arlen Spector? The GOP
• Who supported Bob Bennett? The GOP

• Who worked against Marco Rubio? The GOP
• Who worked against Rand Paul? The GOP
• Who worked against Ted Cruz? The GOP
• Who worked against Mike Lee? The GOP
• Who worked against Jim DeMint? The GOP
• Who worked against Ronald Reagan? The GOP

I have no problem with people questioning Trump, they SHOULD question Trump.  But the GOP that has acted like the conservatives who elected them are the enemy have no business making the “Trump is no conservative” and “Trump can’t be trusted” case.

Nevertheless, read Jonah’s piece, his concerns are valid and I have a few of my own (Trump doesn’t crack my top 5 candidates) but those questions are for tomorrow morning.

 

 

 

 

loves the world except for all the people

Men At Work – Dr Heckyll And Mr Jive 1982

Director Blue’s latest list of the top 300 conservative web sites based on Alexa ranking and DaTechGuy blog came in at 212 just ahead of the federalist society and just behind gay patriot

While a ranking of 212 isn’t bad (454021 worldwide 78,297 in the US) It’s a far cry from the days when I was in the top 100 with a ranking occasionally hitting above 100,000 worldwide (of course in those days I was averaging an Instalanche every 10 days ) but looking at list it hit me this is analogous to the effect of Donald Trump is having on the GOP primaries.

Let’s look at a screen shot of the top of the list:

top 300 8-15

If you look at this list you’ll see Pjmedia.com, where resides the blogfather at 26th with a ranking of 6455 (1370 in the US) and Matt Drudge,  the one who in a sense  started it all at #6,  with a rank of 629. (131 in the US)

While that means in the land of conservative sites those are big the whales, those rankings also mean that in the greater world there are 628 web sites that people rather go to than drudge and over 6400 that people rather go to that Instapundit.  If you go to Alexa and look at the Drudge Report in their list of the top 500 sites in the US  you’ll see what I mean.

 

drudge 8-15

 

In the US Drudge is just ahead of time.com (which I confess puts a smile on my face) but lets look at the sites ahead of it: goodraeds.com, publishers clearing house, weather underground and Sears.

My site gets a spike when I’m linked by Ace of Spades or Instapundit and if Drudge ever links me the traffic spike would be incredible but looking at that list there are over 100 sites that could provide a bigger one.

Those others sites  are more popular than Drudge not because there is something wrong with it, but because they have a greater interest to the greater population.

 

That’s what Donald Trump is to the political world.

The reality is the conservative blogosphere is a niche market in the blogging world, the blogging world is a niche market in the political world and the political world is a niche market in the information that people actually care about.

Trump’s place is beyond that niche market, so when he entered the political world the elites who normally have the clout (the media the Party leaders ) to decide who and what is acceptable suddenly find themselves swamped the thousands of people who used to ignore them.  I’s the political equivalent of Sad Puppies

The self appointed elites of the Sci fi world are horrified that despite their efforts the greater mass of fandom that was always able, but never bothered to vote for the Hugo awards might actually vote for people who they do not approve of.

Rather than arguing for the quality of the books on their slate and reaching out to these new voters to persuade the them that the books they suggest deserve their votes, the opponents of Sad puppies have demonized them as a bunch of racist, bigots, homophobes etc etc etc and have painted their votes as a bunch of ignorant followers.

That’s not going to win friends or influence people.

It’s the same problem for the media and political gatekeepers.  Donald Trump is horrifying the media, the GOP elites and those who have been the gatekeepers can’t stand the idea that a bunch of people who normally would not pay attention might actually select a nominee outside of their sphere of influence and can’t handle the idea that they might have to sell their candidates to the unwashed masses rather than making them choose between their approved candidates.

It reminds them that in the end we are a niche market, Donald Trump is beyond our niche

Final thought, there was a study quoted at Ace of Spades & Hotair that downplayed Donald Trump’s social media power noting that only 39.4% of Trump’s Twitter followers are currently eligible to vote as opposed to say Jeb Bush with 85.5%

Just remember 85.5% of Jeb Bush’s followers is 244,530, 39.4% of Trump’s followers is 1,477,500 that’s six times more.

Update: Instalanche (& traffic spike) thanks Ed While you’re here consider checking out my first foray into fiction a short story called The Eyes at amazon Kindle planned as the first of a series.

Update 2: For some reason the code for DaTipJar button became corrupted fixed.

Update 3: I don’t think I’ve ever had a piece instalanched twice by two different authors at Instapundit (Thanks Sarah) neither of them Glenn. Given the different times of day and authors it will be interesting to see how many people come from one vs the other.

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As I mentioned before I missed CPAC this year depriving people like Sharyn Bovat of Cannoli but I’m working hard to reduce my debts via a long term contract I’m working on so I can go next year.

As part of that contract I was at a location today for a few hours and on heading home was dying for a Chinese Buffet so naturally I headed for Tang Dynasty in Leominster mass which has the best such buffet in the area.

Unfortunately when I got there I discovered they for whatever reason  didn’t have their buffett.

Now normally I would have just had a lunch special but I had my heart set on a chinese buffet so I remembered a place I hadn’t been to for almost a decade named King Buffet located next to the cinema in Fitchburg.

Now I had recalled that the place had left a bad taste in my mouth but I figured they deserved another chance, so I headed down there, sat down, filled my plate and after two bites instantly remembered why I hadn’t been there since my sons where still in grade school.

While Tang lost my business for one day, my experience today guaranteed that I would be back there the first chance I get.

And THAT brings us to Mitch McConnell and the GOP Senate.

It had been nearly ten years since the GOP held the US senate and despite the dismal performance of Senate Democrats the American People in General and conservatives in particular had not chosen to give power back to the GOP.

This week was our first taste of Mitch McConnell’s senate leadership and it was an excellent reminder of why the establishment GOP has managed to lose two presidential elections to the least experienced, least qualified and most incompetent person ever to seek or hold the office of president of the United States in living memory.

There was no reason for Mitch McConnell to lose this fight.  Every three days he should have bought up the house bill, and every time the Democrats filibustered it he should have been in front of the camera reminding the American people and the media that the Democrats were more interested in scoring political points than funding DHS.

He and his lieutenants should have been on every TV show saying that if the Democrats believe giving special rights to people who break our laws is more important than defeating ISIS & defending this country and should have played that card every single day.  When pressed by the media saying Barack Obama would just veto the bill he could reply that a veto threat is just a threat until it happens and that if the president values lawbreaking more that defending the country that is up to him.

But instead he not only gave the Democrats what he wanted he allowed the media the narrative they desired.

If conservatives wanted to let Harry Reid be the majority leader they would have stayed home in Kentucky and Iowa and North Carolina etc etc etc.

I’ve learned my lesson when it comes to King Buffet if they are going to provide a sub par product I will take my custom elsewhere.

Conservatives are getting a taste of rule by the GOP establishment.  If Mitch McConnell & the GOP are going to provide an inferior product we’ll take our votes elsewhere.

Or to put it in a way the establishment understands.  If you expect conservatives to show up and give you those plum Chairmanships in congress and those plum appointed jobs that comes with a GOP president don’t give us a sub standard product.

 

Today the NYT is reporting on the runoff race in Mississippi with the headline: Cochran Asking Blacks to Rescue Him in Republican Primary

Bishop Ronnie C. Crudup stood before roughly a dozen of his colleagues at a weekly Baptist fellowship meeting last week and asked for their help in a fight that, until now, would have been unthinkable for a black pastor in Mississippi: “Let’s send Senator Thad Cochran back to Washington,” he urged.

If you if you look at the web site for new Horizon church international Bishop Crudup seems quite a man and is a pretty good get for Cochran.:

 

Ronnie C. Crudup, Sr., is the Administrative Bishop for the Fellowship of International Churches. He is also Senior Pastor of New Horizon Church International, an exciting and rapidly growing church in Jackson, Mississippi, which he founded in 1987. He is highly regarded as a compassionate pastor, prolific Bible teacher, dynamic preacher, and visionary leader who proclaims a message of consecration and empowerment to the masses and gives practical steps on how to fulfill one’s divine calling and destiny in Christ.

 

and he’s a very busy man too:

Bishop Crudup is known to be a man of great faith who is on the move for the Lord. He is a frequent speaker in schools, churches and prisons across the country. He is host of “New Horizon Presents” and “The Issues” – a television broadcast ministry and is passionately involved in international missions in Malawi, South Africa, and Zambia. Countless thousands know him by his signature statement, “To Count It All Joy.

Getting Bishop Crudup to take time out of his busy schedule to publicly support Republican Thad Cochran in order to stop the tea party candidate State Senator Chris McDaniel is pretty big news and Ashley Parker & Jonathan Martin’s piece on the whole does a pretty good job covering it.

But they have managed to miss the lede in their own story.

Go and give it a read. Can you spot the story screaming to be covered? No? Well don’t feel bad I suspect the reason you missed it is due to the use, or lack thereof, of a specific an honorific adjective and it’s replacement with a different one.

Here is the key paragraph with the key word bolded.

The Cochran outreach campaign is taking many forms. The “super PAC” supporting the senator, Mississippi Conservatives, is paying African-American leaders, including Mr. Crudup, to help lift black turnout on Tuesday, said Pete Perry, a Republican strategist here who is working for the group.

Mr. Crudup? Not Bishop Crudup?

Now looking at some past NYT pieces I see “reverend” converted to “Mr” after the first iteration but not “Bishop” or “Archbishop” while some papers simply drop any title and just use the last name after the 1st iteration.

So why does that “Mr.” matter so much? Because of what that paragraph says.

One might, if one is a conservative giving to a pac called “Mississippi Conservatives” see a story in paying off black leaders in order to stop a conservative candidate.

One might if a liberal, see a story in black leaders being paid by a conservative pac to produce support for a Republican senator, after all if “conservatives” can buy black leaders and possibly the votes they influence once they can do it again (insert Harry Reid Koch speech here).

One might if interesting in clean elections in general find the whole concept that you can apparently “buy” black leaders. If you look how this is mentioned so casually as if it’s the most normal thing in the world in the piece you might find it VERY troubling.

All these things come to mind but consider what happens if you read that paragraph again with “Mr.” replaced by “Bishop”

The Cochran outreach campaign is taking many forms. The “super PAC” supporting the senator, Mississippi Conservatives, is paying African-American leaders, including Bishop Crudup, to help lift black turnout on Tuesday, said Pete Perry, a Republican strategist here who is working for the group.

Suddenly the story is obvious, The “Paper of Record” in the United States states that Pete Perry, a Republican strategist claiming his pac is paying an influential and well-respected black Bishop to increase black turnout for his candidate.

Can you see the headline: Respected Bishop takes cash payment to produce votes

Nah, who a I kidding, such a headline would not only help elect a tea party candidate in Mississippi but might draw scrutiny on just how the Black vote is obtained in elections nationwide.

And what member of the MSM wants to talk about that?

Update: I should point out that I called the MS GOP to get contact info for Pete Perry & e-mailed him asking if this story was accurate, I also called the Bishop’s church with my inquiry but was told he would not be available till monday so I sent a request by e-mail asked it be forwarded as I was going to post within 18 hours & mention this on my radio show.

I further e-mailed both times reporters asking if they had Mr. Perry’s statement on tape & the context that it was given in. All of these requests were made by 2 PM EST on Friday, 14 hours before this post went up, as of this writing 6:58 AM EST Saturday, I’ve not heard back from any of them.

Update 2: I heard back from Bishop Curdup this weekend he was able to say the Times quoted him accurately. As to Mr. Perry’s statement while he could not speak for others he would not confirm the statement of Mr. Perry concerning monies paid, but has said he (Bishop Curdup) is raising money for a pac. He referred to it as “our” PAC to fund their efforts. Post on the subject to come.

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But remember: big tent! We must all stick together! Unless it’s Richard Lugar refusing to back Richard Mourdock after being beaten in the primary; or Charlie Crist switching parties; or Karl Rove attacking Christine O’Donnell on the night of her primary upset; or the attacks on Sharon Angle, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, Steve King, and a host of other conservatives who continue to vex the “pragmatic,” “pro-business” (read: crony capitalist) GOP establishment, who has watched as outsiders — citizen legislators — have invaded their turf and upset status quo that “comity” and “collegiality” covered for.

Jeff Goldstein

GOPOne of the things that really has been a sore spot for Tea Party supporters like me has been the record of the Establishment GOP trying to sabotage any tea party candidate who manages to win a primary.

It is a tempting thing, the willingness to attack Tea Party GOP nominees guarantees you a positive stories in the MSM and a spot as the “goto republican” on CNN & MSNBC.

And if it isn’t the party dissing the Tea Party after primaries it’s ignoring the base before them:

Speaker John Boehner and other senior House Republicans are telling donors and industry groups that they aim to pass immigration legislation this year, despite the reluctance of many Republicans to tackle the divisive issue before the November elections.Many lawmakers and activists have assumed the issue was off the table in an election year. But Mr. Boehner said at a Las Vegas fundraiser last month he was “hellbent on getting this done this year,” according to two people in the room.

It’s one of the few things that threaten a 2nd Big Red Wave in 2014 and I’ve been sounding the warning about this for a long time.

The Tea Party hasn’t trusted you from day one. Tea party members volunteered for you, donated to you and worked to put the house in your hands because you were the best possible alternative but the deal from the start always was, if you mess with them, they will not stand with you.

If you wish tea party to support you in general elections when your candidates win primaries, you have to return the favor.

Almost all of the Tea Party people were not involved in politics prior to their involvement. If the GOP establishment chooses to push tea party members hard they will happily leave the political field for real life and allow you sit in the minority.

I’ve been wondering for a long time if there is anyone, ANYONE in the party willing to take the first step to take down this sign?

I’m glad to see that somebody has, and I’m pleasantly surprised to see it’s Eric Cantor.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) said Sunday he will vote for Dave Brat, the man who ended his career in Congress, but stopped short of congratulating him or mentioning his name.

Cantor, who lost to Brat despite outspending by a margin of 26 to 1, stressed the importance of keeping the Republican Party unified, a message he stressed to Tea Party conservatives in the House after the 2013 government shutdown.

Via Glenn, that story is good but what was better was Eric Cantor’s interview on ABS’s This Week.


ABC US News | ABC Celebrity News

I watched that interview and was simply delighted. Jonathan Karl spent 10 minutes plus interviewing Eric Cantor. He baited him on the Tea Party, he baited him on his opponent, and through it call he simply refused to bite. He didn’t attack the Tea Party, the Didn’t attack the conservative base, the only thing he could manage is a single line critiquing a joke by Laura Ingraham. That was it.

It had to be one of the biggest surprises and disappointments for the MSM. After the track record of incumbent establishment GOP figures the MSM must have been dying to get Cantor on to let him vent. After all he didn’t just lose his congressional seat, he was likely to be the next speaker of the House of Representatives. They must have been positive that Cantor would jump at the chance to get back at the tea party votes that caused his defeat.

He did not.

I won’t pretend I was not pleased at his defeat, I think it will be the death to amnesty this session, but I’ve got to tip my Fedora to Eric Cantor who in the midst of defeat demonstrated the class that so many in the party simply have not and has taken the first step to taking down that sign at the top of the post. Even if he doesn’t believe it, even if he’s absolutely outraged and furious, that he took this public step and did it quickly is a watershed moment.

I think his reaction to his defeat is one of the most newsworthy stories of the year and if his example that if followed will guarantee a GOP victory that will set the left on it’s heels.

That’s likely why nobody in the MSM is talking about it.

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Olimometer 2.52

This blog exists as a full-time endeavor thanks to your support. The only check I draw to pay for this coverage and all that is done is what you choose to provide.

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This should be a watershed year for the GOP. Propaganda not withstanding the costs of Obamacare continue to increase, the international failures of the administration are on full display and as each day goes by it becomes clear that the IRS scandal has the potential to incriminate not just people in the administration, but members of the congress in a vile attempt to use the tax agency to intimidate and suppress political opposition.

And then we read this:

Speaker John Boehner and other senior House Republicans are telling donors and industry groups that they aim to pass immigration legislation this year, despite the reluctance of many Republicans to tackle the divisive issue before the November elections.Many lawmakers and activists have assumed the issue was off the table in an election year. But Mr. Boehner said at a Las Vegas fundraiser last month he was “hellbent on getting this done this year,” according to two people in the room.

Well that’s absolute nonsense, the Speaker of the house advancing a policy diametrically opposed to the base of the party in a year when winning or losing is going to turn on the turnout of that base. Besides none of this was recorded. I’m sure when the office of the speaker was contacted they completely disavowed those remarks.

A spokesman for Mr. Boehner didn’t dispute the account but said no action is possible until President Barack Obama proves himself a trustworthy partner to Republicans.

Seriously?

GOPThe question apparently isn’t if Barack Obama is a trustworthy partner to the Republicans, the question seems to be instead is the GOP a trustworthy partner to its base?

What is the point of having a party and a platform and asking people to join, contribute or work for a party if it ignores the best interest of its members and only takes care of the higher ups? If GOP members wanted that, they could join a union.

I have said repeatedly that in a general election it is necessary to make the best available choice, that staying home was not an option and have tried to make that case to anyone willing to listen. It is stories like this that increasingly make this position untenable.

If the national GOP insists that the base stay home, the votes will be happy to oblige. I’m sure the candidates down ticket will understand.

Stupid party indeed.

Oh and if I was a conservative activist I’d start the paperwork for the formation of those state “Conservative parties” now so that it can be filed the day amnesty passes the House.

Update:  Added graphic and emphasized part of quote

Update 2: This might explain a lot

If you want to buck your base to pay off the fat cats you won’t find a better time then when your opponents are in retreat.

Update 3: AllahPundit seems to figure it the same way:

He’s betting that nothing the GOP does, up to and including amnesty, will enrage grassroots conservatives so much that they’re likely to stay home in protest in November because of it. Anger at ObamaCare trumps all. When the dust settles, after a week or two of talk radio calling Boehner a traitor for passing an immigration bill and vowing to go third party, everyone will swallow hard and decide that they have no choice but to vote for the GOP anyway in the name of stopping O-Care. The redder the Senate turns next year, the greater the odds of repeal in 2017.

But it’s the last sentence of that paragraph that GOP voters should take to heart.

Although if they’d sell you out on immigration, I’m not sure why you’d think they won’t sell you out on that too when the time comes.

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Olimometer 2.52

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On Saturday’s DaTechGuy on DaRadio we announced the results of our GOP poison poll.

1688 people voted casting 6256 votes to answer the question: “Which GOP candidate would cause you to stay home in 2016.”

Finishing first was John “Name the immigration Bill after Ted Kennedy” McCain appearing on appearing on 45% of the Ballots but there is no chance of him running so lets consider just the people who might run.

Chris Christie on 42.5% of the ballots (719 votes)
Jeb Bush 40.1% of the ballots (667 votes)
Donald Trump 38.5% of the ballots (651 votes)

It’s significant to note that the first two of those names are the ones most oft advanced by our friends in the media as presumptive GOP nominees and supposedly the only people who have a chance of beating Hillary Clinton, although Christie’s stock is falling.

I should point out that this is the same media that pushed both John McCain in 2008 & Mitt Romney in 2012.

Christie & Bush are, if you believe the MSM the choices of the big money donors looking for a “winning” candidate  in 2016.  That is the meme being advanced on the morning shows.

Now it is true that money is a vital ingredient to run a national campaign but the other half of the recipe is voter base.  They are the Milk & Eggs you would add to a pancake mix, leave out either one and you end up with a mess that tastes terrible.

The GOP money people and the media can push Jeb Bush and Chris Christie all they want but without the voters they can’t and won’t win.

So lets look at the other end of the spectrum, which people drew the fewest votes of the pile.

Tim Scott 12 <1%
Mike Pence 14 <1%
Bobby Jindal 17 1%
Scott Walker 19 1%
Nikki Haley 19 1%
Ted Cruz 29 1.7%
Rand Paul 30 1.7%

While I would argue the Tim Scott is not ready for the White House, consider the names on that list. 3 Sitting Governors with records of success and two sitting Senators who have made a name for themselves in the congress, one of whom (Paul) has extensive experience in a presidential campaign.

Now  if you are a person of the establishment you might say:  It doesn’t matter if the base is behind them if they can’t raise money.

That’s a fair statement to which there is a fair answer that the re-election of Barack Obama should have already taught them.

It’s much easier to add cash to candidates who have the base behind them and sell them to uninformed voters than it is to sell well financed candidates to an informed base who has already rejected them.

How the party & the donors react to that truth will tell you if their priority is to win elections or feathering their nests and feed their egos.

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Olimometer 2.52

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One of the things you hear concerning CPAC and the straw poll is that it’s not so much a test of who is most popular but who turns out their people.

For example Rand Paul’s people were all over CPAC for his speech:

I had friends who came down for the single day of his speech to hear him, attend a post speech event and vote for him in the straw poll and interviewed plenty of Paul people while I was there:

Now being able to organize people is rather important for a potential candidate but the real test of a candidate is how they do without a crush of their people.

And that brings us to the NorthEast Republican Leadership Conference.

As I’ve already said there are signs of open war between Tea Party activist and the NH GOP that predated the Scott Brown business:

 

Grok’s absence symbolizes the split between the Tea Party wing of the NH GOP & the Establishment wing of the GOP. It’s reaching the point of open war. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that a conservative 3rd party will arise in the state after the November election unless this is taken care of.

 

and Groksters themselves commented on it:

Sure, I am an NH GOP Committee member, but I as I have said many times before, I’m a holder to the three TEA Party principles first, a Conservative second, and only then a Republican when it comes to political philosophy. Frankly, given our stances and the reception to our forcefully speaking out and advocating for them, especially lately, I felt that we would not be at all welcome. In fact, we believe that the TEA Party, the Conservative grassroots, are being told “We don’t need or want you” and this happens in a variety of ways small and large, visible and behind the scenes.

Bottom line a lot of the attendees leaned to the establishment side of the GOP and unlike CPAC the place wasn’t crawling with young Republicans (although the college Republicans were represented).

Yet consider the results of the straw poll.

1. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) – 15%
2. Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) – 13%
3. Dr. Ben Carson – 11%
3. Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) – 11%
3. Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) – 11%
6. Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) – 9%
7. Fmr. Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) – 8%
8. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) – 4%
9. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) – 3%
10. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) – 3%
10. Fmr. Amb. John Bolton – 3%

John Bolton, Rick Santorum & Bobby Jindel were all there so naturally their biggest fans would be there too. The Draft Ben Carson movement was there making their pitch and that also showed in the results. Chris Christie represents the Mitt Romney/Scott Brown wing of the party which was VERY well represented and Gov Christie appearances for GOP candidates in the state didn’t hurt either.

But there was only a single young woman at the YAF table, there was no large contingent of Paulites there and Rand himself was nowhere to be seen and many Tea Party types didn’t show.

Rand Paul won anyway.

Granted he won with only 15% but that result is more than Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio & Ted Cruz combined. He won without a strong surrogate and did so with an audience that strongly represented the establishment GOP.

I think people who remember the Ron Paul and the sort of cult of personality that was built around him and project this onto his son are making a huge mistake. Rand Paul is a serious contender for the GOP nomination, a smart and savvy pol who has positions that appeal beyond the old Ron Paul base and anyone who thinks otherwise either on the left or on the right  is deluding themselves.

And any GOP candidate who thinks they can win without those Paul supporters showing up in November is not bright enough to be on the ticket.

Update: Chris Cillizza figures it out.

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Olimometer 2.52

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El Cid: Sire, all those you see here, though none dare say so, harbor the suspicion that you may have counseled your own brother’s death. Unless you can prove your innocence you will have no loyal subjects. Your kingdom will be torn by doubt. Thus I can not give you fidelity nor own you as my liege

King Alphonso: What will satisfy you of my innocence?

El Cid: Your oath upon the holy book.

King Alphonso:  You would ask a me to swear?

El Cid:  Sire I DO ask it!

El Cid 1961

On day one of CPAC I declared that the most important Day one speech of CPAC was going to be the speech by Mitch McConnell saying:

the divisions between the Tea Party and the Establishment GOP is the one thing that can turn what should be the 2nd Red wave into the biggest upset since the Yankees took the field in the bottom of the ninth in game 4 of the 2004 ACLS.

I don’t know if Mitch and company have figured out how critical this speech is, nobody is talking about it but watch that speech and reaction. It will be the most important clue concerning election 2014.

Mitch’s speech had been scheduled earlier than it took place which is how I ended up covering the George Will / Sen Tom Coburn event.  So I was ready when Senator McConnell came on stage…holding a rifle.

Stills thursday 010

It was almost a Dukakis moment but quickly presented it to Senator Coburn generating some applause.  He instantly when to his speech spending first few minutes talking about Senator Coburn’s virtues.

)

Judged solely on content it was a pretty good. He pointed out the weaknesses of the administrations policies, their attacks on the Constitution, what the GOP senate would do as opposed to Harry Reid and had an excellent line to answer the administration’s “income inequality” attacks

Never before has it been so hard, so hard for the rich to become poorer or the poor to become rich that’s what is un-american

Stills thursday 017
In any other year that would have generated huge applause and been the headline. It perfectly summarizes both the lie of the administration and the reality that their policies have created, but it like most of the applause lines from this speech was greeted with at best polite applause and at worst silence and indifference from the crowd

Stills thursday 018

If Mike Lee gave that speech the crowd would have been on its feet but because Senator McConnell no longer has the trust of the crowd it didn’t matter. They liked the words but didn’t trust the messenger. This shook and depressed me as I recorded my commentary on the subject shortly afterwards

)

McConnell needed to address the elephant/Rino in the room, he did not.

Looking it a week later it hit me what he really needed was his version of the big scene from El Cid where Charlton Heston extracts the public promise of the king.

What he should have done and still needs to do is, in front of that Tea Party Conservative vow that he would fight for conservative principles. Ann Coulter not withstanding he needs to answer these points by Erick Erickson:

I’m talking about the candidates McConnell has supported instead of the conservatives.

Would Ann have preferred Trey Grayson over Rand Paul? Grayson is now working with an anti-gun Democratic super PAC to elect Democrats. Mitch McConnell supported Trey Grayson.

Would Ann have preferred Charlie Crist over Rubio? She and I certainly did not like Rubio’s immigration plan — the one McConnell voted to get out of committee to the floor of the Senate. But would she have preferred Charlie Crist, who was and remains to the left of Rubio on the issue? Mitch McConnell supported Charlie Crist.

Would Ann have preferred Arlen Specter to Pat Toomey like Mitch McConnell did?

What about David Dewhurst over Ted Cruz?

What about Bob Bennett? Does Ann think conservatives, led by the Senate Conservatives Fund, should have left in the Senate the Republican who helped author the federal individual mandate that went into Obamacare? His replacement was Mike Lee. Would Ann really join Mitch McConnell wanting to keep Bob Bennett in the Senate over Mike Lee.

If I was Mitch McConnell I’d arrange a meeting the Erickson, or Matt Kibbe or even myself and on video make a public promise that he will support strong conservatives and if returned to the Senate as Majority Leader fight for conservative values and principles.  It’s not a question of pride, it needs to be done for the sake of the party.

Until he does he what should be the 2nd coming of the big red wave will be an election will remain in doubt.

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Olimometer 2.52

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With 61 more $20 a month subscribers this site will be able to cover its bills for a full year.

I would ask that you do subscribe by hitting the button below.  If your finances allow it, consider choosing Hat level or better.  A subscription comes not only with exclusive commentary, but on a weekly basis you will have the opportunity to get direct access to me by phone to provide feedback or suggestions to make sure this site is worthy of your financial support and patronage.


 

There is a lot of excitement around here as CPAC 2014 day one begins.

It’s a veritable 2014 candidate-a-palloza

Ted Crus starts things off and the room will be mobbed with peopl4 dying to see him.  Paul Ryan follows him.  Later in the Day Chris Christie and Bobby Jindel and Marco Rubio will be on stage and at the end of the Day Donald Trump and his impressive hair will finish off the day.

The electricity to power the pixels these speeches will generate would be enough to power a small village for a month but for my money the speech that is not to be missed today is Senator Mitch McConnell.

By every normal measurement this should be a watershed year for conservatives.  Obamacare is crashing and burning requiring delay after delay to prevent mass defections, Assad has won in Syria, the economy is still in a rut, even with the fillibuster removed the president can’t advance radical nominees,  and this Administration’s diplomacy is making Vladimir Putin look like Peter the Great.

However the divisions between the Tea Party and the Establishment GOP is the one thing that can turn what should be the 2nd Red wave into the biggest upset since the Yankees took the field in the bottom of the ninth in game 4 of the 2004 ACLS.

I don’t know if Mitch and company have figured out how critical this speech is, nobody is talking about it but watch that speech and reaction. It will be the most important clue concerning election 2014.

For the sake of the country I hope he nails it.

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Olimometer 2.52

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If there is one fact of life that you can be sure of when it comes to the media they will gladly report on republicans critiquing republicans.

Yesterday was no exception when Bobby Jindal appeared on Face the Nation yesterday Bob Schieffer immediately played the “stupid party” card.

Normally I’d just pass this off as the standard media bias but In the last few days I’m seeing some evidence of this.

The first was local, while driving in to my show I heard a Massachusetts GOP official on the radio arguing against running solid conservatives in races in the state on the theory that the party needs to be more “inclusive.”

That argument would hold water except the GOP has been following that advice for years in the state without winning elections in Massachusetts.

Playing the “who needs the base” card didn’t work for Charlie Baker, didn’t work for Gabe Gomez and worked so well for Scott Brown after 2010 that he abandoned Massachusetts to play the same game in NH.

Watching the GOP in Massachusetts at times is like watching a rerun of Ramsey’s Kitchen Nightmares where after they bringing in Gordon to help their failing business they keep insisting their customers “love their food as it is”.

If the customers loved the food Gordon Ramsey wouldn’t be there and if “let’s not stand for anything” plan was good there would be at least one GOP member in statewide or national office from the state.

Stupid!

Then there was this story at Instapundit I was shaking my head:

But when the NRSC gets out and attacks a Tea Party challenger — and that, make no mistake, is what’s going on — it poisons the well. There’s basically no trust for the GOP establishment among the base. If they stay home in 2014 like they did in 2012 because they feel betrayed by the establishment, what should be a wave election won’t be. Given the importance, in particular, of a GOP Senate in the event of a Supreme Court vacancy, doing anything to foster such a state of events is criminal incompetence.

What really upsets me about this business is this is not a new problem:

“How many of were active politically active three years ago?” A hand or two would come up, invariably those who were active were delighted to see so many new folks, those who had not been active had many reasons for holding back all these years, apathy, wasn’t worried, didn’t think I’d make a difference, had too much work…

…“Who here trusts the GOP?” Not a single hand went up, but people over and over promised me that if the GOP spent like the democrats they would be back to throw them out too. No wonder the GOP is scared of the tea party.

That article was from Sept 28 2010 two months before that tea party crowd gave the GOP the biggest win they’ve seen in off year elections in more than a half a century and two years before those same Tea Party members stayed home instead of voting for Mitt Romney who spent his time running away from them.

I have been vocal in saying that it’s our responsibility to vote for the best candidate in the general but Tea Party members have long memories:

Boyd Marcus, the chief of staff for Cantor until 2003—who later teamed with another GOP operative Ray Allen to found the firm Marcus Allen, which Cantor employed until earlier this year—joined the McAuliffe campaign after Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, with whom Marcus campaigned, did not win the GOP nominee in Virginia.

– But remember:  big tent!  We must all stick together!  Unless it’s Richard Lugar refusing to back Richard Mourdock after being beaten in the primary; or Charlie Crist switching parties; or Karl Rove attacking Christine O’Donnell on the night of her primary upset; or the attacks on Sharon Angle, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, Steve King, and a host of other conservatives who continue to vex the “pragmatic,” “pro-business” (read: crony capitalist) GOP establishment, who has watched as outsiders — citizen legislators — have invaded their turf and upset status quo that “comity” and “collegiality” covered for.

Given this history and the MSM’s desire to exacerbate these divisions it almost seems impossible the GOP does not understand how important it is to keep the base happy. With an election cycle this favorable to the party the willingness of members of this party to chase away their base says only one thing…

stupid, Stupid STUPID!

Via Glenn, an update from Andrew Klavan:

Writing belligerently purist articles, blog posts or comments is relatively easy. Winning elections is hard. Barack Obama is one of the most destructive presidents this country has ever seen, but a talented politician. If stopping him in his tracks requires stomaching some RINOs here and there, it seems a no brainer: It must be done. Ann may have put her case a little too forcefully in the debate above (she’s not exactly given to dithering!), but surely she’s right in the general principle that strategy — and victory — have to come before purity.

I’d rather put up with frustrating RINOs than continue in the minority with our country under attack from within. But let me know what you think.

I agree but is the reverse true, would GOP party leaders rather put up with Tea Party members in the majority than be in the minority without them.

If the GOP doesn’t convince Tea Party members their preference is the former then the result with be the latter.

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Olimometer 2.52

Monday has come and with five days to go I’m under $700 away from paying the mortgage. That sounds a lot nicer than “we’re still $700 away and time’s almost up.”

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The time to take over the GOP (state by state) or set up a real third party (let’s call it the conservative party, like NY state), is NOW, after a historic election that demonstrated the ineptness of the “Wizards of Smart”.

The time NOT to talk about and vote for a third part candidate, or stay home and pout about rules that work against you is DURING an historic election, when one of the evils is immeasurably worse than the guy you can’t quite warm to.

Mike Rogers Granite Grok

John Adams: Mark me, Franklin… if we give in on this issue, posterity will never forgive us.

Dr. Benjamin Franklin: That’s probably true, but we won’t hear a thing, we’ll be long gone. Besides, what would posterity think we were? Demi-gods? We’re men, no more no less, trying to get a nation started against greater odds than a more generous God would have allowed. First things first, John. Independence; America. If we don’t secure that, what difference will the rest make?

1776 (1972)

Ann Coulter appeared on Sean Hannity and delivered a stunning rebuke to the Senate Conservative’s Fund calling them “Shysters” who are getting rich off the Tea Party movement railed against primaries vs sitting GOP Senators and put notice that job #1 is winning the Senate period!

Ann is right that the reason the media leaves groups like the Senate Conservative Fund because they are going after republicans but she also forgets that if we followed her advice we would have Senator Charlie Crist in Florida today rather than Marco Rubio

That there are people who are out to make a buck off the Tea Party is undeniable. It’s also undeniable that there are plenty of people doing the same off the establishment, particularly the consultant class. Her words brought to mind Tim Imholt’s piece of yesterday concerning EBT

It’s all about the money, and staying in office. Solving this problem means some folks have to go raise money with other ideas, of which they have none. Don’t let most of them fool you; they only care about your check clearing.

I think the problem are not primary races, as an opponent of Amnesty she should know that it is only the threat of such races that restrained the house from passing such a bill, the problem is what happens afterward.

Once a primary is over the choice becomes not between the most desirable republican but the most desirable candidate republican or democrat and both the “establishment” and “tea party” wings are guilty of forgetting this.

The Establishment has been quite happy to abandon Tea Party GOP candidates when they win nominations or even attack them. Many sore loser establishment types cost the GOP in 2012 & beyond. There are Democrat governors and senators sitting today because of this, most recently in Virginia.

On the other hand there are Tea Party Types who have voted with their rear ends sitting out elections because a GOP candidate is not conservative enough. The GOP would hold a senate seat in Massachusetts today if only 60% of the Scott Brown and that’s not even bringing up Mitt Romney in 2012

That’s where Ann nails it, you have to win elections and if the choice is the 60% republican who can give you the majority or a 95% Democrat who will give the majority to Harry Reid, that’s an easy choice to make.

While I’m not sure Thomas Sowell’s Dunkirk analogy applies (after all Ted Cruz’s move forced every DEMOCRAT to vote for the debt ceiling increase) one must unite when the battle is on.

Once the primary season is over Ted Cruz is no more likely to support Grimes in KY (If McConnell wins the election) that Patton was likely to disband his army because he disagreed with Bradley on operation Market Garden, but that has to work in both directions.

I am totally in favor of challenging the “establishment” GOP in primaries when the candidates forget who they are working for and I have not been shy about pushing candidates I like such as Dwayne Stovall.  A robust primary keeps a candidate honest.

But I also recognize that once a primary is over the choice is between the Republican and the Democrat and the choice becomes pretty clear.

If you are an establishment Republican who sat things out in NV or VA I blame you for Harry Reid & Terry MacAuliffe but if you are a Tea Party guy who sat out 2012 over Mitt Romney I blame you for Barack Obama.

When the primary season is done I am going to support every single GOP candidate running for Senate and I suggest that every Tea Party & “Establishment” republicans do the same.

Because if you don’t and we still have a Democrat Senate in 2015.  If will be your fault, period!  Plenty of time to have  those fights and/or take action come late November & early December.

Ht  Piratical Politicking

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Olimometer 2.52

For the 2nd week in a row I’ve come to Saturday short of the full paycheck. We need $190 to finish the week in the black

Only 8 Tip jar hits of $25 are needed to get us there.

Last week we made it with just a few hours to spare, please consider kicking in now so I can go into today’s show with that worry behind me.

Now there is another reason to kick in on a more permanent way

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Trust but Verify

Ronald Reagan

Or what king marching into battle would not first sit down and decide whether with ten thousand troops he can successfully oppose another king advancing upon him with twenty thousand troops?  But if not, while he is still far away, he will send a delegation to ask for peace terms.

Luke 14:31-32

An awful lot of conservatives have become more and more frustrated with the GOP over the last 6 years. Those conservatives stayed home in 2008 & 2012 when the party nominated candidates who didn’t support their agenda or tried to strong arm them. Those same conservatives turned out in 2010 to give the Obama administration the only check they have on their political power.  This frustration has prompted plenty of 3rd party talk, some of it from me.

It’s easy to talk about going 3rd party but people don’t understand the complicated logistics involved, the laws that have to be obeyed and what it takes to becomes viable enough in a state to be able to influence an election, both in terms of number and of course the money. Additionally the question becomes are you just going to give Democrats a bunch of easy wins and be worse off than before?

If you are going to consider this, you have to understand the risks and rewards

The best parallel to explain it that comes to mind is this situation in the 1969 movie The Undefeated starring John Wayne & Rock Hudson.

After leaving the US Army at the end of the civil war Thomas (Wayne) decides he and his remaining troops will make their fortune by gathering up wild horses to sell to the army.  They spend the winter building a herd of 3000   and arrange to meet with the Government agents.

When they arrive at the way-station, a pair of representatives of Maximilian’s government turn up offering to buy the entire herd sight unseen at top dollar if they are willing to drive them to Mexico.

At this point the US government agents turn up and Wayne politely dismisses Maximilian’s representatives saying “Sorry gents our government needs them.”

The US government agents begin by saying that out of 3000 horses they might be able to find 500 they can use. Wayne is taken aback saying he doesn’t have 500 horses for sale, he has 3000,  they’ll take them all or none. The government notes the war is over times are hard and the army is “not that hungry for horseflesh”

Thomas sends his pal to get the pair of Mexican agents waiting outside and asks what the army is paying which precipitates this exchange

Giles: Top dollar $25 a head

Thomas: Last month is was $35 a head

Agent 2: But this month it’s $25 a head

Consider the parallel at this point to the relationship of the establishment GOP. The Establishment GOP says to the foot soldiers this is what we can accept and this is what we can give for your hard work. Where else are you going to go, to the Democrats?

At this point Shortgrub re-enters with the two Mexican agents and when Thomas sees them interjects:

Thomas: Well these gentlemen have offered to take the entire herd sight unseen, and what’s your top price?

Petain: $35 a head of course.

So Thomas has a choice, either take the offer, pocket the $12,500 for his men the Army will pay on the 500 best horses and get what he can for the rest. Or take the higher offer, on the wager that he will

Retain enough of the herd on the long drive to Mexico to make it worth the time and effort and cost to make it worth it.

Not make an enemy of or cause trouble for himself and his men later on.

Wayne character doesn’t hesitate a second:

Thomas: You’ve just bought yourself a herd and you can tell that Maximilian fella he won’t find himself a finer herd this side of the …”

At this point Giles interrupts indignant.

Giles: Just a minute, do you mean to say you are selling horses to Maximilian as opposed to your own government?

Thomas: No I’m selling horses for $35 a head instead of $25 you figured on making $10 a head.

At this point a very short fight breaks out and Thomas & his friend leave.

Now this is a moment of high satisfaction in the movie Thomas, in a situation where he is being treated wrong bluntly rejects a crooked deal from a crooked pair and decides to go out on his own. Much like many in the Conservative moment wish to do with the GOP and not without cause.

So Thomas and his herd beings his trek south.  After dodging a small cavalry troop that tries to stop them from crossing the Rio Grande Thomas orders scouts and sentries to be put out. That prompts this exchange.

Shortgrub: You ain’t expecting trouble, are you John Henry?

Col. John Henry Thomas: Trouble? Well, let’s see… We got Maximilian on one hand and Juarez on the other, and bandits in between. And on top of that, we’re Americans in Mexico taking a cavvy of horses to a very unpopular government. Why should we expect trouble?

Shortgrub: How come you didn’t tell us?

Thomas: How come you didn’t ask?

They end up fighting bandits, encountering Rock Hudson’s Confederate refugees for a pair of adventures and reaching their destination with 2500 horses waiting for the promised money. At this point Rock Hudson rides in saying his entire party of men women & children have been taken by Gen Rojas’ troops who threaten to execute them unless Thomas delivers the horses to them.

After a discussion where the men decry ending up with nothing after all their time and effort but in the end they decide to give up the horses fighting their way through French Cavalry that try to stop them until just as the first batch of men are lined up against the wall, Thomas’ herd is spotted. Thomas confronts Rojas.

Thomas: You drive a hard bargain
Rojas:War is War Mr. Thomas.
Thomas:That’s right, You win one, you lose one.

So bottom line for all their hard work Thomas and his men end up with nothing and that brings us to the 3rd party movement for conservatives.

It is painfully clear that despite the best efforts of some like Ma. GOP chair Kirsten Hughes and people like Magnificent Panel regular Mary Lotze there is a bunch of bad blood. Many in the GOP would be happy for the Tea Party & social conservatives to just go away and many in the Tea Party are happy to oblige after the fecklessness of the party and social conservatives who are forever told they should give and just shut up.

While there is a great amount of satisfaction in such a decision on both sides the problem is in the end everybody turns up empty, consider the movie.

The US government didn’t get the horses
The government agents didn’t get their cut
Maximilian didn’t get any horses
Thomas and his men not only ended up with nothing but several of them died in the fight against Maximilian French forces.

Meanwhile the only winners was Rojas who got all the horses delivered to their doorstep for no charge.

Sort of like the liberals every time we fight among ourselves.

Now think about this from the beginning if the government agents were willing to pay say $30 a head Thomas they might have been able to feather their caps although not by as much as they might have liked.

If Thomas had decided to sell the government 500 of those horses (the same amount he lost in the drive) he and his would have still had $12,500 up front and would still be able to deal with the in the future if the need arose…

…and the Mexican agents would have been just as happy to buy 2500 horses as they would have 3000.

Even if the story ended the same way, at the end the surviving members of Thomas’ crew would have still had that $12,500.  It’s a lot less than $87,500 but it’s infinitely more than zero.  14% of something is worth a lot more than 100% of nothing.

Now there are real reasons to consider going 3rd party and a person has to follow their own conscience but as Christ himself advises it would be a good idea to make sure they can have the right effect before abandoning the GOP altogether.

Likewise the GOP needs to look long and hard at the prospect of being a permanent minority and decide if feathering their nests from government is a better deal than a more responsible government that still gives them access to the power they want without taking the taxpayer for a ride.

As I’ve said before  conservatives should consider building the infrastructure for state 3rd parties (or perhaps prepare to go en masse to an existing one) while seeing how the GOP chooses to treat them in 2014 or act on issues such as Immigration.  If they treat conservatives right then we can hold off, if not things can start happening in December.

And that gives the GOP pretty much a full year to make up their mind, do they want a party big enough to win in 2014 and beyond.  Or will they take the Conservative money and effort for granted in 2014 one more time? Is the party going to be a gravy train or stand for something?

Think carefully, the future of the party and of the country are at stake and if the wrong decision is made, everyone loses.

Update:  This doesn’t inspire confidence:

But why are the politicians abandoning the economic interests of the country’s basic laborers, and the strong anti-amnesty convictions of their own constituents (in the case of most Republicans), and doing it at such an objectively inauspicious time? It’s hard to deny that cash is doing much of the swaying here. “[A]ll the money is on the side of pushing it,” one pro-amnesty Democratic Congressman boasted–money in the form not only of direct campaign contributions, as promised by Mark Zuckerberg ($50 million) and the Chamber of Commerce, but also future consulting contracts and lobbying positions for those who echo the line that Republicans just have to do this to remain viable.

Actually, I don’t think they can remain viable if they do. It’s (another) big push in the direction of a massive base-walkaway from the GOP, and quite possibly the formation of a third party.

Doesn’t anything think beyond tomorrow’s pocketbook anymore?

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What a difference a day makes

Yesterday we had missed three straight weekly goals and our prospects of making the mortgage this month were doubtful.

As of today not only have we made payroll this week, but we made up for the previous three week’s shortfall.

In fact even a bad week next week will be enough to make the monthly goal.

Olimometer 2.52

So let me thank you all.  Per the rules you won’t see me rattle DaTipJar until next week rolls along

Of those tip jar hits one was a monthly subscription. If we can get 57 subscribers @ at $20 a month the bills and the writers will be paid EVERY week all year.  Now I might be biased but you might ay that’s a pretty wise investment.




Chico: l could have told you they´d sell us out. Farmers…Farmers! No honor, no loyalty – nothin´. All they care about is their precious crops and the miserable dirt they dig in. l hate ´em. l hate ´em all.

Chris: Sure you hate them. Because you come from a village just like that one. You yourself are a farmer.

Chico: Yes. Yes, l´m one of them. But who made us the way we are? Hm? Men with guns. Men like Calvera and men like you. And now me.

The Magnificent Seven 1960

 

Yesterday I  wrote about how the fears of Obamacare have existed on the left for quite a while, but there is one other fear that the current Obamacare panic that to some degree crosses party lines and is one of the reasons why the Tea Party frustrates both the left and the right.

When you have people whose entire life is political the possibility of losing a race is the end of the world.  Where shall they go when their influence is gone?  What shall they do if they haven’t stored up sufficient chits with the movers and shakers who demand the favors from congress.

That’s why the Tea Party and their candidates confuse them so.

Invariably Tea Party members have lives.  They are nurses or businessmen or career soldiers.  They are retired people with grandchildren that they could be spending their time and efforts with.  While you will find the odd opportunist in the lot anyone who has attended or covered Tea Party events realize the basic truth that they have meaningful lives outside of the political sphere.

This extends to many tea party pols elected to congress.  Their lives had purpose before congress and the long term plan for them is to return to those lives, so electoral defeat while painful and not welcome is not the end of the world to them.

That is what bothers their opponents on K street. It’s very hard to buy or scare people who aren’t afraid of what you threaten it’s also why a longtime GOP operative could endorse Terry McAuliffe with this words

“I was looking at the candidates, and I saw Terry McAuliffe as the guy who will work with everybody to get things done,” Marcus said in a phone interview with the AP.

The AP noted too that McAuliffe’s campaign touted the endorsement in a statement from Marcus: “I’ve never before supported any Democrat, but this election Terry is the clear choice for mainstream conservatives.”

…back in August and nobody in the GOP said boo.

The Tea Party might bother K-Street but it absolutely terrifies congressional leaders of both parties and political operatives.  If there is one thing they can’t understand it’s a pol whose first thought isn’t his own advancement, let alone the concept that there is something more important than re-election.

and there is nothing a person fears more than something they don’t understand.

The worst time to send out tweets like this:

Is two days after a GOP operative helped defeat the GOP/Teaparty nominee in a governors race.  It causes me to link to posts like this:

But remember: big tent! We must all stick together! Unless it’s Richard Lugar refusing to back Richard Mourdock after being beaten in the primary; or Charlie Crist switching parties; or Karl Rove attacking Christine O’Donnell on the night of her primary upset; or the attacks on Sharon Angle, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, Steve King, and a host of other conservatives who continue to vex the “pragmatic,” “pro-business” (read: crony capitalist) GOP establishment, who has watched as outsiders — citizen legislators — have invaded their turf and upset status quo that “comity” and “collegiality” covered for.

I’ve already written that if the GOP & Tea Party work together is a winning combination but such a partnership can only be built on trust and that trust has to be earned.

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Olimometer 2.52

My very last $305 paycheck to support this site remains short.

Tomorrow begins a new week when that paycheck will have to support myself, Chris, Vin, Harry, Bernardo, Brett, Lee and Chico

I’ll explain that statement tomorrow but for today, I’ll just ask you to hit DaTipJar below.

Ok I’m not going to make a lot of friends with this post but I want to remind everyone of some basic facts. Let’s start with the Tea Party.

If you are a tea party member and you think that rest of the GOP establishment is going to go along with us as opposed to K Street just because we are right, you are living in a fairy world.

If you think that powerful interests who would like a share of the tax pie put into their hands and the consultants who make a fortune off of campaigns donations are going to sit back and let us bring spending under control without a fight you didn’t study the reaction to the Pork Busters campaign.

If we want to change the way people who are not with us vote we have to provide an incentive, either a carrot or a stick and that carrot or stick has to be bigger than the other guys.

Contrariwise the GOP establishment needs to learn this:

The Tea Party hasn’t trusted you from day one. Tea party members volunteered for you, donated to you and worked to put the house in your hands because you were the best possible alternative but the deal from the start always was, if you mess with them, they will not stand with you.

If you wish tea party to support you in general elections when your candidates win primaries, you have to return the favor.

Almost all of the Tea Party people were not involved in politics prior to their involvement. If the GOP establishment chooses to push tea party members hard they will happily leave the political field for real life and allow you sit in the minority.

United Tea Party Conservatives can not only win elections, but can also persuade people to the conservative point of view. Divided both the cause of conservatism and the cause of getting the power that comes with Committee Chairs and the White House will be beyond your reach forever

You have all been warned.

Update: And a word of advice to the Establishment GOP, your insistence that the Tea Party support you and calls for unity would carry more weight without stories like this from back in Aug:

“Longtime Republican political strategist Boyd Marcus is endorsing Democrat Terry McAuliffe for governor and will advise his campaign,” the Associated Press reported on Tuesday.

Marcus had worked for, the AP reported, the “aborted gubernatorial bid of Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling.” Bolling refused to support Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli after he won the primary to face off against McAuliffe.

Protein Wisdom nails it

But remember: big tent! We must all stick together! Unless it’s Richard Lugar refusing to back Richard Mourdock after being beaten in the primary; or Charlie Crist switching parties; or Karl Rove attacking Christine O’Donnell on the night of her primary upset; or the attacks on Sharon Angle, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, Steve King, and a host of other conservatives who continue to vex the “pragmatic,” “pro-business” (read: crony capitalist) GOP establishment, who has watched as outsiders — citizen legislators — have invaded their turf and upset status quo that “comity” and “collegiality” covered for.

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Olimometer 2.52

Remember one other thing.

If you are a Tea Party member who wishes to see independent commentary and/or a member of the GOP establishment candidate who would like some press that doesn’t automatically assume a contrary position to Republican interests you need to support places like this site.

A $305 paycheck or even a $340 weekly paycheck to cover a paycheck plus Chris, Vin, Harry, Bernardo, Brett & Co isn’t much to ask. If you can please consider hitting DaTipJar below.

Chris: There’s a job for six men, watching over a village, south of the border.

Bernardo: How big’s the opposition?

Chris: Thirty guns.

Bernardo: I admire your notion of fair odds, mister.

The Magnificent Seven 1960

Yesterday Protein Wisdom:

The rhetorical ground is already being set, with these two races its supposed proofs: look at how well Chris Christie did in a blue state! Look at how Cuccineli’s extremism lost us Virginia!

And PJ Media

Every GOP mainstream politician and consultant will spend the next few months completely incapable of saying little more than “Chris Christie!” They will have polls-OH!-will they have polls. Everyone will be taken as undeniable proof that Christie can beat Hillary, the zombie apocalypse, and the 1927 Yankees once time travel is a thing.

told us what the post election spin would be today and on Cue Morning Joe is going on today both about Ken Cuccinelli made told you what the MSM would say the lessons of VA & NJ are. If only Cuccinelli was not so extreme, and Chris Christie proved how the GOP can win in a blue state and is the model of 2016.

Let’s start with NJ

Chris Chrsitie won by 20+ points and a lot of credit has to be given to his policies and himself in winning that state at all, let alone by 20 points. He was and is clearly better for NJ than the democrat and the voters recognized it, but what nobody talked about until election day itself was in a state where National Democrats decided not to play:

From President Obama, who twice toured New Jersey with Christie after Hurricane Sandy and then failed to endorse Christie’s challenger

Hold on President Obama didn’t even offer a pro-forma endorsement of the Democrat Pro-abortion woman?

to the Democratic National Committee, which sent just one staffer to the state to fortify local efforts,

The DNC sent one staffer?

to major donors and high-profile party leaders such as Bill and Hillary Clinton, powerful Democrats have stayed on the sidelines in the blue state contest

(A cynical person might consider this the pro-quo for that arm the week of election day but I digress)

Well while the left and Morning Joe (which usually likes quoting the Daily Beast didn’t find that story newsworthy they DID report on the exit polls in NJ that showed Chrsitie doing well in all demographics.

There are some significant stats that give good news to the GOP nationally which I’ll talk about tomorrow but lets note the following, Chris Christe won men by 37 pts & women by 15 pts in the poll. He won latinos by 6 pts and took 21% of the black vote in a sample that approves of Obama with 51%.

All of that speaks well of Chritie who has done a good job in NJ (The 85% approval of the job he did with Hurricane Sandy.) but of all the stats from that poll, here is one that makes all the difference in the world.

The pollsters asked who would they support in 2016 Hillary Clinton or Chris Christie.

Well that should be an easy one. You have a poll of voters who just voted for Christie overwhelmingly this has to be the most favorable polling sample possible sample for Chris Christie. If Christie is going to win NJ for the GOP in 2016 he has to win this sample:

Christie

Christie loses to Clinton by 4 points, FOUR POINTS?

Excuse me? You have a race where no democrat money was spent, where you have photos of Barack Obama with an arm around Chris Christie, and a polling sample of people who voted for him by over 20 points and thinks he did a great job and from that sample he couldn’t outpoll Hillary Clinton in New Jersey?

I’m sorry The lesson is clear: If Chris Christie can’t outpoll Hillary with those advantages what does that say about his chances of winning democrats elsewhere when the full power of Democrat party and the MSM against him are slim and none and slim left town.

This is a trap set for the GOP in 2016 if they fall for it then it’s all over.

Now lets look at VA.

After leading by double digits for weeks Terry McAulffe managed to beat Ken Cuccineli by 3 points. The Narrative is he lost because he is a tea party candidate.

It is fair to say that in VA where so many gov workers the shutdown hurt the GOP (never mind the back pay voted meaning those workers essentially got a paid vacation) but here are some stories that got very little note.

Before Obamacare, before the shutdown Robert Stacy McCain said this

If Bob McDonnell had resigned Monday, there was about a 50-50 chance Cuccinelli could somehow change the subject between now and November and pull out a narrow win over McAuliffe. Every day that McDonnell remains in office, those odds diminish.

This is fact, not opinion.

Odd that the GOP wasn’t willing to do something about this to help out their candidate for Governor.

Then there is the libertarian who had an interesting source of funding:

A major Democratic Party benefactor and Obama campaign bundler helped pay for professional petition circulators responsible for getting Virginia Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Robert C. Sarvis on the ballot — a move that could split conservative votes in a tight race.

Campaign finance records show the Libertarian Booster PAC has made the largest independent contribution to Sarvis’ campaign, helping to pay for professional petition circulators who collected signatures necessary to get Sarvis’ name on Tuesday’s statewide ballot.

Now this is a tactic that people in elections have been using for years but it’s funny that it didn’t break until the day before the election and not in any MSM venue? Even odder was that the MSM didn’t even bother to mention the 3rd party candidate much until yesterday and Today Cokie Roberts had the audacity to claim it didn’t hurt the parties equally.

Yeah that’s why the Democrats funded him. Even Joe Scarborough wasn’t buying that.

Then there is the social conservative argument, the MSM contends that Cuccinelli’s social conservatism doomed him but there was an interesting story that got no press yesterday:

Del. Scott Lingamfelter, a Republican, said he received a robo-call on Sunday evening claiming that Cuccinelli supports the Affordable Care Act and taxpayer financing for abortions.

Cuccinelli vehemently opposes Obamacare, as the law is commonly known. He was the first state attorney general to challenge the law in court. He is also strongly opposed to abortion.

The recording said the Democratic Party of Virginia (DPVA) paid for it, Lingamfelter wrote in a post on his Facebook page.

“They are shameless in their lies,” he wrote. “I guess they are trying to suppress GOP voters” in the governor’s race.

Tell me if Cuccinelli’s pro-life position was a problem for him why does the left bother to spend money? That’s a good question and I’d love a good answer.

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Finally lets look at the GOP establishment and their actions, or shall we say inaction:

Four years ago the national GOP spent 9 million dollars in VA to elect a GOP governor. This time around?

They spent 3 million.

Now the idea that Terry McAuliffe Mr. UBER fundraiser was able to outspend Cuccinelli is not a surprise but the idea that the GOP cut their spending in the state by 2/3 well that wasn’t received well:

WE COULD HAVE WON THIS RACE. FOR THE REASONS I HAVE EXPLAINED HERE AND ON THE AIR, GOP ESTABLISHMENT AND DONORS LEFT THE FIELD. NOW, NOT ONLY THE LIBERALS BUT THE RINO MOUTHPIECES CONTINUE WITH THEIR MANTRA ABOUT THE DEAD TEA PARTY AND THE RINO FUTURE. ABSOLUTELY APPALLING! (And they did not spend even $3 million, that was a phony number.)

RT@seanmdav: In 2009, the RNC spent $9M to win VA by 17 points. Looks like it’ll have spent $3M in 2013 to lose by a hair. Dummies

Well that doesn’t prove the establishment wasn’t behind Cuccinelli I mean it’s not like popular GOP candidates didn’t show up for him to campaign.

 

Huh? I remember in 2012 Christie showed up to support Ovide Lamontagne in NH I covered him there.

Christie went to NH to campaign for Ovide and REFUSED to take a day during a race he was winning by 20 points to campaign for Cuccinelli?

I think that’s incredible, we are constantly told that Tea Party republicans need to hold their noses and stand by GOP moderates as I did with Mitt Romney and Gabriel Gomez. This tells me that as far as the GOP is concerned the opposite is not true.

So what is the lesson of Virgina? It’s this: To the Establishment GOP (and to Chris Christie) a victory by a Bill Clinton Democrat like Terry McAuliffe is preferable to a Tea Party candidate winning the governorship of Virginia.

In February after the GOP convention where the establishment used some interesting tactics to defeat a tea party candidate in Massachusetts I left the GOP ON camera

and wrote

If the party wants me and people like me they’ll have to earn me. When the GOP can convince me that they are serious about growing the party, when they convince me they are serious about treating the tea party et/al as valued members as opposed to a source of temp labor and occasional funds. I’ll be happy to return to the Republican Party in as public a fashion as I’ve just left it.

If the GOP is wants to be a minority party that gets their share of graft rather than a majority party that reforms the government this is the way to do it.

Update:  Via Instapundit

VIRGINIA: Did The GOP Blow It Because Of Fear of the Tea Party?

Short answer YES.  The details:

it’s hard to deny the conclusion that the Republican party decided it was better to abandon Virginia to the Democrat party than to allow the Tea Party and social conservatives to win.

Here they are:

  • The Republican National Committee spent three times as much in 2009 on the same race as they did this year.

  • The Chamber of Commerce spent one million dollars in the last Governor’s race, and not one dime on Cuccinelli.

  • While its often claimed that Tea Party candidates do poorly among independents, Cuccinelli actually won independents by 9 points, 47 percent to 38 percent.

  • “McAuliffe outraised Cuccinelli by almost $15 million,” and in the last weeks of the campaign, this left Cuccinelli with nearly no media exposure.

  • Even Politico wonders if Cuccinelli was beginning to turn the tide against the “War on Women” narrative, as he drove down McAuliffe’s lead among women from 24% in polling to 9%.

We’ll remember.

Update 2:  For some reason the left hasn’t found Ramesh Ponnuru all that quotable today:

The “party establishment” (to simplify) is putting some of the blame on the shutdown, and the anti-establishment conservatives are putting a lot of the blame on the former’s stinginess; Cuccinelli’s campaign manager is blaming both. The results in the state legislative races, and the possible victory of Mark Obenshain in the AG race, make it hard to credit any theory that the Virginia electorate is just hostile to conservatism in general, or to social conservatism in particular.  (emphasis mine)

I wonder why?

Update 3:  Jonah Goldberg NAILS it

For all the talk about how the base needs to cooperate with the establishment more, it’s worth remembering that the base almost always does its part on Election Day. Its the establishment that is less reliable in returning the favor.

Because the love our votes but love the K-Street spending more.

Update 4: Dan Riehl:

I don’t care if you want to blame the RNC, the RGA, the NRSC, the media and young dumb Republicans like a Josh Holmes, Brian Walsh and Brad Dayspring who live to run to it to get their names in print bashing their own base.

The fact is, the establishment GOP cost, not just conservatives, but its own damned party the governorship in Virginia.

Someone, or some few people need to be held to account and yes, some heads should roll. Now, all they want to talk about is ObamaCare. As far as I’m concerned, there’s a little unfinished business to address before we get there.

Update 5: Mark Levin vs Renice

Apparently Christie will have time to campaign for Lindsey Graham.

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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Wednesday and I need 13 tip jar hitters of $20 to make my $305 paycheck.

With the need to support myself and cover Chris, Vin, Harry & Bernardo next week it’s not a good sign.

But you can change that, if you think this analysis is worth your while please consider hitting DaTipJar below

Harry:  (Wounded & Dying)  Chris…

Chris:Yes, Harry?

Harry:  l´d hate to die a sucker. We didn´t come here just to keep an eye on a lotta corn and chilli peppers. There was something else all the time, wasn´t there?

Chris: Yes, Harry. You had it pegged right all along.

The Magnificent Seven 1960

At the start of the movie The Magnificent Seven Chris is recruiting guns for the poor Mexican farmers when one of his old friends turns up inquiring what the action is, Chris replies that it’s just $20 & eating money to help out some farmers plagued by bandits, but Harry the high roller isn’t about to be fooled like that no matter how much Chris insists there is nothing more that what he says Harry just won’t believe him insisting that whatever going on, he was IN>

Harry: Sure, never mind. Tell me when you can.

Chris: Harry, please don´t understand me so fast!

Harry: l said never mind. l´m in. You dirty dog!:

The idea that things could actually be what they seem and that Chris might actually be acting to protect the people simply never occurred to him.

And that brings us to the Tea Party and both the left/media and the GOP establishment.

First our friends on in the left and the media (but I repeat myself).  They  look at the tea party and simply seethe.

That’s not a surprise the overwhelming national victory for the GOP they fueled in 2010 at the time of redistricting preventing them from retaking the house in 2012 and likely beyond. But what really drives them nuts are the crowds.

The left has made a career of producing Astroturf crowds. Paid union members, paid homeless, folks who don’t know what’s on their own signs who exist only to be in front of a camera to give the illusion of the support of people spontaneously turning out.

Then comes the tea party, rally after rally, crowd after crowd all without people paid to be there and if that isn’t enough for three years the media have been waiting for Tea Party violence, tea party thuggery or even tea party members not cleaning up after themselves after a rally.

They know there’s got to be a catch, a gimmick, there just couldn’t be this many people who opposed the left in general and Obamacare on their own without being paid.  They’re sure that someone in Koch industries is promising all these people well-paying jobs, or free meals for life at Chick-Fil-A or something.

If only they could figure out what!

 

But while the Tea Party confusion might generate frustration to the left, they cause outrage to the Establishment GOP that has been fighting them for nearly a decade.

One of the things our friends on the left like to insist is that the Tea Party movement was born over the election of Barack Obama. Today on Morning Joe Chuck Todd says the tea party is out for the money Joe Scarborough asked the question: Where were the these people when he was arguing against the spending of the Bush Administration?

That narrative conveniently forgets the movement known as Porkbustersporkbusters 1

The very first post on Porkbusters went up at Instapundit on Sep 18, 2005 at 7:00 pm and it said this:

SO THE EARLIER PORK POST — in which various bloggers posted and emailed about pork in their states — looked kind of promising, and N.Z. Bear and I got together to figure out a way to take it up a notch.

How are we going to mobilize the blogosphere in support of cuts in wasteful spending to support Katrina relief? Here’s the plan.

Identify some wasteful spending in your state or (even better) Congressional District. Put up a blog post on it. Go to N.Z. Bear’s new PorkBusters page and list the pork, and add a link to your post.

Then call your Senators and Representative and ask them if they’re willing to support having that program cut or — failing that — what else they’re willing to cut in order to fund Katrina relief. (Be polite, identify yourself as a local blogger and let them know you’re going to post the response on your blog). Post the results. Then go back to NZ Bear’s page and post a link to your followup blog post.

The result should be a pretty good resource of dubious spending, and Congressional comments thereon, for review by blogs, members of the media, etc. And maybe even members of Congress looking for wasteful spending . . . .

Feel free to copy the cool logo by Stacy Tabb (or this larger version) and use it on your own posts.

Technorati tag: .

By Sept 19th 2005 Michael Barone had written about the movement calling it a worthy idea. Howard Kurtz in the Washington Post discovered it the next day. PBS had Glenn Reynolds on Marketplace the next day and before that day was through CNN was talking about it.

On Sept 22nd Townhall.com wrote this about the clash between the porkbusters & the GOP

the real debate isn’t happening in Congress as a whole – it is unfolding within the Republican Party. The debate will shape the future of the GOP. If Republicans – the one-time party of small government and fiscal restraint — cannot support spending cuts now, then they will officially signal their abandonment of fiscal conservatism, a once valued part of the Republican platform. . . .

Ironically Nancy Pelosi at the time was the only member of congress with a “committed cut” but later in the day they got an e-mail from Tom Colburn

Sen. Coburn will call for a freeze on non-defense, non-homeland security discretionary spending. Over two years, that alone would save $112 billion compared to our current spending path. Combined with any number of the different specific savings options, more than enough money can be saved to pay for our efforts along the Gulf Coast. In addition, Sen. Coburn will call on the president to veto any new spending bills that allow for increases in non-defense, non-homeland security spending.

porkbusters By Halloween 2005 Porkbusters had a much cooler logo and within a week was already hitting Karl Rove was already a target on Nov 15th the bridge to nowhere was defunded and internal Senate GOP e-mails already were lining up against the porkbusting bloggers.

By January the WSJ was hitting the GOP for supporting incumbents over ideas and by April Trent Lott had enough:

I’ll just say this about the so-called porkbusters. I’m getting damn tired of hearing from them. They have been nothing but trouble ever since Katrina. We in Mississippi have not asked for more than we deserve. We’ve been very reasonable.”The government just spent $300 million to repair the rail line that Lott and his fellow Mississippi Republican Senator Thad Cochran want to tear up and replace with a highway to serve the heavily populated coastal region.

I guess he’s hearing from people he’d rather not. You know, the ones who don’t have their checkbooks out.

The establishment GOP was determined that these “porkbusters” had to be stopped…and then in 2006 they lost the congress.

Suddenly John Boehner was speaking against spending and the late Bob Novak had this observation concerning Minority Leader Mitch McConnell:

Sen. Lamar Alexander, newly elected chairman of the Senate Republican Conference and a McConnell ally, is also an appropriator. So are Sens. Kay Bailey Hutchison, the Conference vice chairman, and the canny Robert Bennett, McConnell’s close adviser who sits at the leadership table as the minority leader’s counsel. These Senate GOP leaders opt for pork as the party reaches a fork in the road.

That fork offers choices not only for current government spending but also for the Republican future. One way pressed by conservative reformers would either block an omnibus bill or stop it by sustaining a presidential veto, insisting on a CR that would save taxpayers $30 billion a year. The other course makes a deal with an omnibus bill $8 billion to $11 billion over Bush’s guidelines, virtually forcing him to sign it by inserting troop money, further depressing the demoralized Republican voter base. That was the course McConnell clearly indicated last week.

Those names sound familiar As Glenn Reynolds put it at the time

Most likely result: McConnell will remain an effective minority leader for some time . . . .

The house’s newly found love for spending cuts were not enough of a selling point in 2008 but in 2010 lost in the wilderness the GOP in the house were suddenly delivered from the wilderness not only nationally but in state after state and the Republicans leaders once again had their chairmanships and with redistricting would keep them for a decade….

…but then there were those pesky voters.

The chairmen and their leaders once again had the power of the purse and the attention of K street, but the tea party children of the porkbusters who sent them there insisted that they really wanted spending to be cut, even corporate welfare but that’s not what K-Street wants to hear so they ran their own candidates:

With Mitch McConnell’s help, Grayson raised half a million dollars from business PACs, including Obamacare backers like Pfizer and the American Hospital Association, bailout beneficiaries like the American Bankers Association and the Managed Funds Association and Beltway bandits like Northrop Grumman. At least a dozen lobbying firms and industry trade groups funded Grayson. Republican senators-turned-lobbyists like Trent Lott backed Grayson, warning, “We don’t want a lot of Jim DeMint disciples.”

Rand Paul, meanwhile, pocketed only $25,000 in PAC money before the primary. Where did Paul get his loot?

The Club for Growth was Paul’s biggest source of funds, giving him $105,000, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. The Senate Conservatives Fund kicked in $36,685. These two groups, together with FreedomWorks, also spent big on independent expenditures for Paul.

Ted Cruz also came to Washington by defeating K Street. The Club for Growth spent more than $2.5 million helping Cruz in the Texas GOP primary, while the SCF spent about $800,000. K Street was backing Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst — he got $500,000 from business PACs (33 times Cruz’s take), and GOP lobbyists hosted a fundraiser for him at the Capitol Hill townhouse of Democratic superlobbyist Tony Podesta.

As Cruz put it, “Everyone who makes their living from continuing the government-spending gravy train is supporting Dewhurst.”

To Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and the Tea Party going to Washington or even becoming president is about saving the village from the Bandits who are pillaging it.

But the Establishment GOP will always be Harry looking for that hidden gold in the mountains and they’ll be damned if they are going to put themselves at risk of losing fat donors for the sake of the votes  nor do I expect them to come over the hill to help those Republicans fighting for them when they’re trapped in a corner.

They just don’t have that final Harry spark in them.

Update:  Fixed a sentence that was out of order

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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Tuesday and I’m still 14 $20 hits shy of my $305 paycheck.

Unlike Harry & the establishment GOP everybody knows where I stand and what I seek that’s why no establishment GOP candidate has ever run an ad here.

But unlike next week when I’ll need 17 people to fund Me, Chris, Vin & Harry 15 people (14 to go) will be more than enough for me. If you care to be one of them please hit DaTipJar below.

Sen Joseph Paine: Thirty years ago I had your ideals. I was you. I had to make the same decision you were asked to make today. And I made it. I compromised – yes! So that all those years, I could sit in that Senate and serve the people in a thousand honest ways.

Mr Smith Goes to Washington 1039

John Adams: Stop gawking? I’m plain John Adams, an ordinary citizen. The same as yourselves.

John Adams 2008

A few days ago I talked about why it was logical that the White House used the shut down to reward friends and punish enemies.

Now we are seeing the GOP establishment in fear of polls going after the Tea Party:

From county chairmen to national party luminaries, veteran Republicans across the country are accusing tea party lawmakers of staining the GOP with their refusal to bend in the budget impasse in Washington.

The Republican establishment also is signaling a willingness to strike back at the tea party in next fall’s elections.

and the Tea Party is not happy either:

Again a lot of emotions are in play, surprise should not one of them.

First as anyone who has read this blog knows, the tea party from day one didn’t trust the GOP establishment, and bluntly said so. Remember the tea party’s origin comes from the porkbusters movement that started during the Bush years over runaway spending.

The GOP was happy enough to get the votes and the chairmanships but there is a catch as Trent Lott once said:

“If we get another loud voice in there, like Mike Lee from Utah or Sharron Angle from Nevada, there will be a new nucleus” to advocate causes such as term limits, a balanced-budget amendment and “having bills point to where they are enumerated in the Constitution,” Paul said in the interview.

Former Senate majority leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.), now a D.C. lobbyist, warned that a robust bloc of rabble-rousers spells further Senate dysfunction. “We don’t need a lot of Jim DeMint disciples,” Lott said in an interview. “As soon as they get here, we need to co-opt them.”

Power is congress is based on the ability to grant favors. The reasons millions of dollars are spent on lobbyists is because the votes on the house & senate floor, the spending on the White House can make or break a business and pay rewards many times what the cost of their investment is.

It’s one thing for the Establishment to get Tea Party votes in a special election but it’s another thing if they actually manage to change the culture of Washington, suddenly the revolving door from congress to wealth closes and that they can’t abide and as a wrote months ago time is on the establishment:

When such people are elected the establishment of both parties who benefit from this system seemingly are in trouble, particularly in the house when the voters have to be faced every two hours so there is an excellent chance that they might be punished but time is always on the side of the establishment.

Sooner or later an issue will come up that the member of (Group TEA) and the voters in their district care about, a vote that they will care about, and at that time the full power of the establishment comes into play, or maybe a tough election fight will come up and money and support will be necessary, or maybe a problem will come up that needs solving or maybe a hundred other things will come up where that member of congress will want the help or support of other members.

What makes this even harder is such people are surrounded every day by people making and rationalizing every single one of those compromises they are making and reaping the rewards of wealth and increased power.

What’s the point of a chairmanship if you don’t have the power of the purse?

And it’s not just their fortune, there are the hangers-on, the campaign groups, the consultants, the writers a whole group of people who feed off of them. Do you think they will jump off the gravy train willingly?

That why the Establishment walks a fine line, they will campaign for tea party votes when it costs them little.  They will even give lip service to their candidates, but the moment that comfortable life is threatened they will happily join with the left and media to destroy them.

After all even a ranking member of the minority has influence enough to gain power & wealth for friends.

As long as the tea party understands this, they will be able to act wisely.

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Olimometer 2.52

Two days left to DaPayweek the good news there has been movement and I’m now 38% toward a full paycheck.

The bad news that means I’m still 62% away ($187) but 8 readers hitting DaTipJar for $24 and I’m there.

Be one of them, hit DaTipJar below.

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Robert the Bruce: Father?

Robert’s Father:Ah, come in. Come in.

Robert the Bruce:A rebellion has begun.

Robert’s Father:Under whom?

Robert the Bruce:A commoner… named William Wallace.

Robert’s Father:You will embrace this rebellion. Support it from our lands in the north. I will gain English favor by condemning it and ordering opposed from our lands in the south.

Braveheart 1005

I’ve had a couple of posts this week about the oddity of Democrats & MSM frustration with the GOP,  wondering why,  if the hated Republicans were was shooting themselves in the foot by opposing obamacare, they objected so?

But there is a similar contradiction within the GOP.

Two weeks ago when the Tea Party Patriots and true believers  rallied on the mall,   individual GOP members showed up but the party muscle stayed away and the media and the GOP establishment suggested attempts to get the house to pass a CR defending Obamacare were quixotic and was ill advised.

However once that proved to be not quixotic but a done deal the GOP was fundrasing off that vote

Will President Obama, Harry Reid, and Senate Democrats listen to the voters who elected them?

Join our fight.

Take action, donate $10 to our de-fund ObamaCare fight today

Reince Priebus

I’m sure the GOP has multiple e-mail lists, the above e-mail may have been sent to a list exclusively for tea party fans.

Nor do I know if Chris Wallace of Fox News is on that,  but apparently he’s on a much more interesting e-mail list that I’m not:

“This has been one of the strangest weeks I’ve ever had in Washington,” Wallace said. “As soon as we listed Ted Cruz as our featured guest this week, I got unsolicited research and questions, not from Democrats but from top Republicans, to hammer Cruz.”

I would be very interested in knowing who sent those unsolicited e-mails. Were they sent from Reince Priebus’ office? Did they come from a particular Senator’s offices? From the House? From the RNC? From the NRCC? From the NRSC?

I think these would be great questions to ask, and I think it will be very interesting to see who admits it and who denies it.

My advice to the GOP, whoever sent those e-mail come clean fast and apologize. If you didn’t send that e-mail to Chris Wallace say so NOW and denounce it now because if you don’t explicitly say you weren’t involved,  we’ll assume otherwise.

Your call.

Update:  Why are Glenn Reynold’s posts usually a link with one or two lines, because that’s all he needs:

HOW TO SPLIT THE GOP AND CREATE A THIRD PARTY BY 2014

I think the GOP would rather lose than win with the tea party.

Update 2: Sarah Palin nails it again:

I think GOP groups need to disavow those e-mails very quickly.

Update 3: Breitbart linked by HotAir reports Mitch McConnell wasted no time in screaming: “Not me!”

Jesse Benton, the campaign manager for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s re-election campaign, told Breitbart News on Sunday that “of course not,” neither McConnell, nor anyone on his Senate staff or campaign staff, shopped any opposition research on Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) to any members of the media, including Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace.

I’d get those denials in quickly.

Update 4: Hey remember when the GOP was all in favor of these kind of votes. The Washington Examiner’s Byron York does.
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Olimometer 2.52

Sunday Started Strong and we’re only $58 away from a full paycheck. Only 3 tip jar hitters of #20 will make a full paycheck this week. If you would care to be one consider hitting DaTipJar Below

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BTW if you would like to support this blog without a big or even a small Tip Jar hit one thing you can do is support our advertisers like author J Trapani who has a new book out Victor the Monster Frankenstein an incredible new take on the Frankenstein Legend.

Frankenstien

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It’s a win-win!

SUPERMAN: I knew you’d double-cross me, Luthor. A lying weasel like you couldn’t resist the chance

LUTHOR: Are you kidding? I we had them all the time. Did you see how they fell into our trap? Beautiful . . .
SUPERMAN:Too late, Luthor

Superman II 1980

Three years ago the Tea Party had this to say about the GOP before delivering them the greatest congressional victory they would ever see.

“Who here trusts the GOP?” Not a single hand went up, but people over and over promised me that if the GOP spent like the democrats they would be back to throw them out too. No wonder the GOP is scared of the tea party.

DaTechGuy What I asked at the Tea Party Sept 25 2010

There years later the GOP continues to justify the Tea Party’s  lack of  trust for them

We’re now, once again, subjected to the “anonymous sources” backstabbing game. The Capitol Hill cowards are rushing to anonymously denounce Senator Cruz to any reporter with a pad and pen.

Welcome to our world, Ted. The same people have been denouncing conservatives like me for years (right after they ask for help fundraising for themselves or endorsing the latest candidate they’ve suckered into paying their exorbitant consulting fees).

But they will still be wanting help come election time, in fact the GOP isn’t waiting that long:

House Republicans passed legislation to defund ObamaCare today.

By a vote of 230 to 189, the Republican majority in the House defeated Nancy Pelosi and Democrat opposition.

Now the fight moves to the Democrat-led Senate.

The high cost of ObamaCare – lost jobs, lost wages, less access to health care – are being felt already by the American people.

The American people do not want a government shutdown and the American people do not want ObamaCare.

Will President Obama, Harry Reid, and Senate Democrats listen to the voters who elected them?

Join our fight.

Take action, donate $10 to our defund ObamaCare fight today

Reince Priebus

Yeah, GOP staff & members denounced folks like Ted Cruz and the Base all over the MSM but we were really with you all the time.  Really we were.  Honestly!

Blast emails to thousands on a mailing list might draw in some money but others aren’t as easily fooled

a little reminder to Republican senators up for re-election in 2014: Moose season ends soon, allowing more time on one’s hands. So, we’ll be watching your votes very carefully this week.

We can get the GOP to do the right thing and even to victory.  It will take hard work and we’re going to have to drag them there kicking and screaming to it.

One might get discouraged if history didn’t teach us this is the same reception the Reagan republicans received during the 70’s  and the Teddy Roosevelt republicans got at the turn of the last century yet prevailed.

Years and times may change, but comfortable establishments never do

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Olimometer 2.52

Last week was the second worst week DaTipJar managed in the 8 months I’ve been trying to earn a living off of it.

But Sunday brings a new day and another chance to make that $305 paycheck.

I don’t have the mailing list to reach four & five figure donors, nor the staff Reince Priebus does, but what I do have is the consistent conservative message that is and will remain conservative come what may.

If you think that is worth a $305 paycheck a week please hit DaTipJar below and help me toward it.

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And remember if you own a small business, or have written a book that wants exposure you can get advertising with a national reach on the blog/radio show at prices starting at as little as $100 a month, alternatively I’m Still looking to crowdsource my radio advertising. If you want more info click this link and see how you can promote my radio show while making up to to $400 for yourself.

Mandy: You sound Scottish.
Amy: I am Scottish. What’s wrong with that? Scotland’s gotta be here somewhere.
Mandy: No. They wanted their own ship.
Amy: Good for them. Nothing changes.

Doctor Who: The Beast Below 2010

Once upon a time there was a political party in Massachusetts called the GOP that regularly lost elections for National office and that party had a choice to make.

For the 2nd time in four years they had a chance to face a Democrat after a tough primary race alone on a ballot without city counselors, town clerks,  governors counselors, ballots questions ,  state reps or senators that might have voters who supported them to help increase the Democrat party vote.

The last time this happened everyone, including the party expected to lose.  But the Tea Party base was energized, they volunteered in large numbers and they helped draw volunteers and funds from members of the GOP base nationwide.  Their candidate, with nothing to lose,  embraced that base and highlighted a single key issue that polled well among both the party and independents who made up the majority of the electorate in the campaign.

With the money and manpower the teaparty base drew the polling improved and the state party and national party decided to help after all.

Not only did their candidate win but that fall the Party they had the best showing in state elections for rep they had in years.

But the GOP decided they didn’t like the Tea Party people or the base because they said they wanted a louder voice in the party and the candidate decided the people voted for him because they loved him so much and not because the Tea Party and base worked so hard, so they pushed them away in the next election.

They not only lost the national seat they had won, but lost some of their new state rep seats too.

But even though the GOP didn’t like them the tea party, the base didn’t go away because they wanted their state to be better for themselves and their children so when there was another chance to win a seat in the same way they did in 2010 they found a candidate they agreed with and supported them in straw polls all over the state.and said to the party:  “Please vote for our man and our people will come back and help beat the Democrats again.”

But the establishment decided didn’t want to support the tea party or the base’s man who agreed with them and wanted someone else.  So they thought and thought and came up with an idea.

You see the very smart people in the establishment of the national party noticed a lot of people had come to America and Massachusetts from a distant southern land called “Hispanica” and while culturally they seemed a lot like the base, they voted for the Democrats.  They decided this was because the law said the people from “Hispanica” who wanted to live in the US had to follow the same rules as people from England, Congo or even India, but they didn’t want to.  So the party decided if they made a new rule that allowed anybody who broke the law coming to America to stay all the people who came from “Hispanica” and their children who already were here would decide they would not hate the GOP any more and maybe vote for them.

So they found a candidate who not only supported that new rule but whose mom & dad came from “Hispanica” so he spoke the  language of “Hispanica” so that all the people whose families came from that southern land would see him and say:

“Look this man is the very first from our home of “Hispanica” to run for senate so we will support him even though the Democrats have told us for years that the people in that party were bad and hated all people from “Hispanica” and wanted to take away the money the government gives to some people who come from there.”

So the party backed him even though the base and tea party didn’t agree with him saying they might stay home, and the national donor base didn’t give him money to hire people to help him win either because he supported laws they hated.

The party establishment didn’t worry.  They were much smarter than the base or the tea party and knew because their candidate supported the new rules that the national establishment did and was a child of “Hispanica” he would make all the people from “Hispanica” decide to vote for him.

Election day came and even through the Democrats had plenty of money and their machine was ready to roll their candidate only managed to draw 60% of they votes the very bad candidate did in 2010.

So to win the GOP only needed to draw 55% of the voters they did in 2010.  In some towns where the base was larger than others , voters said: “Even though you disagreed with us and the “Establishment” doesn’t like us we think you are better than the other guy” and voted for him.

But even though he won those towns and cities many of the base in those towns stayed home and didn’t come to vote  so he didn’t get a lot of votes extra votes.

But they still weren’t worried because their candidate supported the new rules and was a child of “Hispanica” so he would make all the people from “Hispanica” decide to vote for him.

So on election day they went to a city with many people from “Hispanica” and said: “Look our candidate is a child of Hispanica just like you! Come vote for him!”  But the people of that city said: We’ve never heard of a country called “Hispanica” Our parents come from a country called “The Dominican Republic” and they voted for the party they always did.

Then they went to another town and said “Look our candidate is from the land of Hispanica just like you” and the people of that town said: “We’ve never heard of a land called ‘Hispanica” our fathers came from a land called “Brazil” and they voted for the party they always did.

And everywhere the story was the same, the people never heard of “Hispanica”, they said their fathers had come from places like “Mexico”, “Puerto Rico”, “Peru”, “Ecuador” and all those people voted for the same party they always did.

So when all the votes were counted the GOP got less than 45% of the people who came to vote for the party just three years ago and they lost the best chance they would have to win for a very long time…

…and they blamed the Tea Party and the Base.

The Moral of our tale? There are two:

There is no land of “Hispanica”.  Instead there are 25 Latin American counties with different cultures, peoples and traditions so stop pretending people from those lands will vote for you just because you ran someone named “Gomez”.

You can’t add to your vote total if you chase away the base of voters most likely to support and finance you.

The End.

Update:  One more moral, no matter how good an idea you have for a post, if you finish it at 1:30 AM sleep on it and post it in the morning after you proofread it with a full night’s sleep under your belt.

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Olimometer 2.52

One upon a time there was a conservative who lost his job in the Tech Industry and started to write and report on politics. He worked very hard and after 5 years built a following and managed to start a radio show but like many new business’ couldn’t afford to draw a pay.

So he asked his many readers if 15 of them a week would be willing to kick in $20 so he could draw enough of a monthly pay to afford his $1210 mortgage

For four months he was able to do so but in the fifth month his draw was not as successful so by Wednesday morning he was still $138 short on a weekly paycheck and $499 short of the mortgage payment.

So he asked if 7 more readers could kick in $20 to make the paycheck to start and then perhaps he could find others willing to cover the $361 defect for the month.

I’m afraid you will have to decide how the story ends.

Other seed fell on rocky ground where it had little soil. It sprang up at once because the soil was not deep. And when the sun rose, it was scorched and it withered for lack of roots.

Mark 4:5-6

Today is election day and Gabriel Gomez faces an uphill battle to win what should be a well deserved victory against career pol Ed Markey.

Unlike the Scott Brown race there has been no democrat panic at the very end and not even an outlier to suggest that Gomez might make the same and no rush of national bucks to save the day (although anything is possible)

Yesterday at a Tea Party event I saw the leader who is both a tea party member and active in the local GOP committee (if only the GOP had someone like this as chairman) who I’ve seen at standouts and events for Gomez talk about her conversation with him this weekend extolling his virtues and I took off my “blogger” hat to make one final pitch to the tea party faithful assembled quoting from this piece that even if we have objections on some issues that it is vital that we get out and vote Gomez and encourage others to do so.

That such a pitch has to be made at a tea party event shows the difference between 2010 & 2013.

In 2010 nobody outside of Massachusetts gave Scott Brown a chance to win, when the GOP was giving only “pro-forma” support the Tea Party was active, working hard for Brown. It was the grass roots, the bloggers who led.

Brown campaign declared himself “Nobody’s man but your own” he ran on personality, and the closest thing he did to distancing himself from the tea party was declining to have Sarah Palin come to campaign for him. It was only when the National GOP saw that the Tea party and the grassroots were ready to drag him over the finish line did they jump in.

Brown’s victory, inspired activists nationwide and made the 2010’s Big Red Wave Possible giving the GOP the majority but also sent a wave of tea party members who voted not in deference to the GOP establishment but based on the support of the people.

While national republicans  appreciated their chairmanships they didn’t like having to bow to the people who made them possible.

In the next cycle the establishment supported non-tea party people in primaries, for congress and for president, Scott Brown distanced himself and the CPAC conservatives who once welcomed him as a hero noticed. In return while declaring they would vote for him, they would not work for him and without that grass root support both Mitt Romney and Scott Brown lost re-election (I suspect this had a lot to do with his decision not to run for this Senate seat).

Flash forward to 2013 a contested GOP primary for the seat Kerry once held. A conservative Tea Party candidate Mike Sullivan is winning straw poll after straw poll over Gomez and the dynamic Rep Dan Winslow.  The National Party supports Gomez who pitches himself as a “new kind of Republican” and gives him a huge money advantage and when election day comes Gomez has won over 50% of the vote  and the right to face Democrat Ed Markey.

And that’s where the miscalculation came in.

To the national party Gabriel Gomez was a dream candidate, Navy Seal, Vet, successful businessman and LATINO!

But to the grass roots locally and nationally didn’t care Gomez’s race, they looked at his positions. Pro Manchin/Toomey, Pro Gang of Eight, Pro Global Warming declaring himself “A New Kind of Republican” as if there is something wrong with being a member of the GOP.

I don’t blame Gomez. He has never to my knowledge attacked the tea party and has been very forthright about his positions not even bending before a conservative Fox News Sunday audience.  That’s more honorable than one who says one thing during a campaign to get money & votes and then flips. (hi Senator Rubio, how ya doin?)

Nationally the Grassroots who felt themselves burned with Scott Brown and Mitt Romney kept their pocketbooks closed. You saw no stream of activists rushing to Massachusetts to ring doorbells and sell Gabriel Gomez to the people of the state and locally one of the most prominent conservative commentators urged people to just stay home.

And that’s why on the eve of an election where every hand need to be on deck to stop a career poll like Ed Markey who votes dem 98% of the time I was obliged to make a pitch to Tea Party members to show up and vote for GOP candidate Gabriel Gomez.

That’s a really bad sign.

Perhaps I’m wrong, perhaps Latino voters who have been rather silent during this race will turn out in huge numbers without the left shuttling them to the polls or without local activist groups bringing them to vote for the first of their own ignoring those who call Gomez a LINO (Latino in name only)  For the sake of my state and my country I hope they do

If not the Miracle Max video in Ed Morrissey’s post will be quite apt.

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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Tuesday and the weekly paycheck has moved forward only 12 more readers kicking in $20 are needed to give me a full check for the first time in June.

Yeah even if I make the paycheck I’ll still be short $354 for the mortgage but one target at a time.

For now I’ll worry about finding a dozen of you willing to hit DaTipJar below and get me to that first goal. Then I’ll worry about finding 18 more.

Clara:  Please tell me there’s a button you can press to fix this!

11th Doctor: Oh  Yes, big friendly button

Clara:  You’re lying

11th Doctor:  Yep.

Clara:  To stop me freaking out?

11th Doctor:  Is it working?

Clara:  Not so much.

Doctor Who:  Journey to the Center of the TARDIS 2013

 

Marco Rubio may be making foolishly making the Lyndon Johnson gambit but much more dangerous is this attitude from Lindsey Graham concerning 2016: (emphasis mine)

The good news is we have a deep bench. And after eight years of President Obama’s economic policies, and quite frankly foreign policy, people are going to be looking around. But if we don’t pass immigration reform, if we don’t get it off the table in a reasonable, practical way, it doesn’t matter who you run in 2016. We’re in a demographic death spiral as a party and the only way we can get back in good graces with the Hispanic community in my view is pass comprehensive immigration reform. If you don’t do that, it really doesn’t matter who we run in my view.

A lot of Republicans apparently are nodding their heads without thinking what this actually says and what it means.

Conservatism is not a race, it’s not a tribe it’s a set of ideas.

Conservatives argue that small government is better for people than big government.

Conservatives argue that regulation kills jobs rather than creates them

Conservatives argue people can spend their money better than government can.

Conservatives argue that personal freedom and responsibility make a stronger society.

Conservatives argue that the constitution provides for freedom of religion, not freedom from religion

Conservatives argue life for the sanctity of life, born and unborn.

Conservatives argue for the basic right to defend yourself.

Conservatives argue that you and not the government are the best judge of how to raise your children

Put simply conservatism is all about personal freedom vs central control

I contend that conservatism is better for everyone.  It’s better for the rich, the poor, the middle class, better for people regardless of race, religion, or any other situation and moreover it’s an argument that’s easy to make.

But to Lindsey Graham that argument is wasted on Latinos,  there is no point in making the case, for arguing the virtues of conservatism or even pointing out the failures of the democrats and asking he basic question:  “Are you better off then you were four years or in 2016 eight years ago?” Latino’s apparently aren’t bright enough to understand that,  instead we just need to pass this bill and Latinos will just jump into the GOP fold.

In other words, Lindsey Graham thinks Latino voters are a bunch of suckers and moreover he is making this argument directly from the MSM/Liberal playbook.  He wants that big friendly button.

Life doesn’t work that way.

I’m sorry Lindsey the only suckers are the members of the GOP who believe this.  They are buying the MSM argument directly from the Liberal playbook and that argument is to shut up.

as A Time for Choosing writes:

During the primary season, Sarah was batting 1000 until Missouri, when her candidate, Sarah Steelman, who was polling the strongest against democrat Claire McCaskill, and was an almost sure winner, lost to Todd Akin after some shenanigans by democrats. Akin almost immediately lost the election by saying incredibly stupid things, allowing one of the very worst of the worst to be re-elected.

and in the general election?

That brings us to the general election. Sarah outperformed the Republican Party by a bunch. Out of the eight candidates she endorsed, six of them won:

And the Lesson:

Always listen to Sarah Palin. Chances are you’ll have better results.

That presumes of course your goal is to get the most electable conservative into congress rather than to enrich the establishment consultant class and those who want to be them.

Perhaps those who blew $400 mil plus on Rove etc should remember this.

Eyes on the prize, if your goal is to The problem is, listening to Sarah Palin doesn’t make a lot for high priced consultants

Richard Tisei seemed poised to score a win over John “Taxes? What Taxes?” Tierney in a race that would add at least one GOP seat to the Massachusetts House delegation.

There is no question that Tisei is a better choice than Tierney who frankly had no business being re-elected in 2010, but Mr. Tisei has started to show signs of catching the dreaded GOP disease Scozzafever!

Scozzafever is an illness that spreads among members of the GOP that want to be loved by the MSM. Symptoms include public disdain for the GOP caucus, allergic reactions to all things grass-roots or tea party (except fundraising dollars) and the obsessive need to go before the cameras to attack the party. The disease is most common among Gay or pro-abortion republicans but prolonged exposure to the national media in DC can cause this disease to strike the most stalwart member of the party over time.

In its most advanced stages Scozzafever (Sometimes referred to as Huntsman’s disease) causes the victim refer to his own party as Knuckleheads and to appear on cable networks as a regular guest supposedly “representing” his party in the eyes of the viewers while spending his entire appearance attacking the very caucus that he is a part of.

Once out of public office victims of Scozzafever tend to find themselves as regular contributors to MSNBC whenever it is necessary to have a “republican” on set however this symptom only manifests itself after a successful election or a presidential campaign.

When signs of Scozzafever appear Republicans need to take special care, while it is always better to have that extra seat the question becomes: Will the advantage of that single house seat be sufficient to compensate for the damage a single victim of Scozzafever can do to the party?

This is a disease that can be beaten, but one who has been hit with said symptoms has to be willing to publicly shake them off, in this case Richard Tisei has one advantage, he has first hand experience on how hitting social conservative positions can turn a winnable race into a disaster. After all that’s why it is Mr. Tisei not Lt. Gov Tisei running for national office.

The National Party backed Dede, and Charlie Crist and was burned twice, let’s hope that their support of Tisei means the 3rd times the charm.

For many weeks we have seen democrats, the media, and the Morning Joe crew go after republicans saying “What will they actually cut?”

Then republicans started naming cuts and suddenly came the line today on Morning Joe. “They are cutting the things that will hurt us in the long run.”

Even Funnier when talking about Colin Powell, who no matter how much the media wants to pretend the president is on a roll, recognizes that The One™ is not riding high and wants to again be invited to big paying republican speaking gigs, Charles Blow in casual conversation mentioned how Joe Scarborough is not really considered a republican and naming David Frum as another example. Joe insisted that he is still a member of the club and that “regular” republicans are still who they are. He pointed to John McCain’s primary win (neglecting the fact that the conservative vote was split among several candidates) and Blow answered that he had gone right Crazy and had picked “Crazy”.

Not a word, not a peep, wasn’t called on it.

Bill Bennett pegged it weeks ago. Joe you’re a nice guy and all but it is what it is. You are the most conservative host on MSNBC hand down, but that is like being the most chaste lady at the Chicken ranch.

Are you are republican? Sure, but republicans are a conservative party and you are becoming less and less conservative. The idea of crying “cut waste” just makes you sound silly.

For a list of what republicans believe click Barbara’s post here.

As I said a while back sooner or later you have to join the side you’re on.

SISU points out the following message from Washington concerning Sarah Palin:

“Seventy-nine percent of Washington elites believe Palin is a ‘negative influence in national politics’ while just 15 percent find her to be ‘a breath of fresh air,'” according to a new Politico poll that defines said elites as “those who live within the D.C. metro area, earn more than $75,000 per year, have at least a college degree and are involved in the political process or policymaking.”

Of course the beltway consider her a negative influence, she has helped lead a peasant’s revolt that threatens their ability to feed at the public though.

And when you look at the activity going on in the lame duck it speaks volumes concerning what people really think (not withstanding reminders that some conservative pundits who now worship at the altar of Ronald Reagan thought him a dunce in the past)

Let’s face it, if they didn’t think the culture of Washington was about to change they wouldn’t bother to be forcing all of the last-minute stuff that they are now. They would know that in the past republican congresses were easily co-oped and they would be able to make deals to keep their own prerogatives flowing.

Yet after a single election they are risking all. Why? I think it’s because their own internals on Sarah Palin and the tea party show she is a lot more popular than pseudo polls (and I guarantee that this poll will be a morning joe topic today to Mika’s delight, outlier or no) pretend she is and they are afraid of actual systemic change.

They are aware that before being picked as McCain’s running mate interviews not out to get her revealed her to be a bright and thoughtful woman and leader. Some people more interested in the party circuit than in actual conservatism hit her because they know her record in opposing Obama, taking substantial policy positions when others hang back, but to do so is to face rejection in Washington.

What’s worse snark not withstanding she doesn’t fear the media, in fact she considers them irrelevant.

The left will always tell you who they are afraid of, and the actions of this congress right now tell me that both the left and establishment republicans are afraid that Sarah Palin can win.

They are wise to believe so

On Morning Joe they are pushing the whole No Labels story but Ann Althouse was not impressed

Every couple of months we get something like this, don’t we? It’s the “Coffee Party” all over again — isn’t it? — an attempt by elite Democrats to create the impression of a grass-roots movement. It never works. [Remember “One Nation”?] And “No Labels” is such a silly… uh… label. It has a certain nostalgic 60s vibe: I ain’t lookin’ to… analyze you, categorize you, finalize you or advertise you…. But I came from the 60s, and I’m sick of that vibe when it’s used to advertise to me.

Well its a new moment I’m sure it is not unoriginal is it. Well Nice Deb says not so much:

NL: We are frustrated and concerned about the tone of politics.

CP: Critical policy discussions are subjected to a perpetual cacophony of misinformation designed to breed cultural resentment.

NL: We are passionate about addressing America’s challenges.

CP: We believe that by talking and learning together – we can take action to solve the problems facing our nation

NL: We are Democrats, Republicans and Independents.

CP: …we are non-partisan

NL: We believe hyper-partisanship is destroying our politics and paralyzing our ability to govern.

CP: The ugliness on television, on talk radio, and on blogs and conspiracy emails is alienating to the vast majority of Americans.

Hey it’s just a coincidence, I’m sure they aren’t stealing logos or anything from other organizations. Gateway Pundit:

The RINO-Leftist group “No Labels” completely stole their logo-design from a New York website “More Party Animals.”

Don’t worry Ben Smith has it covered:

No Labels designer Dave Warren, a Madison Avenue vet whose firm is FLY Communications, said the similarity is just a clip-art driven coincidence:

Well this is a new group and it is all about doing things the right way so I’m sure they are very public about their sources of funding…or maybe not Says Salon:

No Labels, the new centrist pro-“common sense” advocacy group that launched at a high-profile New York conference today, will not be revealing to the public who is putting up the money for the effort.

Salon asked No Labels spokesman Adam Segal if the nonprofit group, which has reportedly raised at least $1 million so far, would reveal the sources of its funding now or in the future. Segal declined to comment on the record. That $1 million has already paid for the big conference at Columbia today, a flashy website, a new logo, and a P.R. guy. The Wall Street Journal did report the names of three wealthy donors last month (more on this below), but it’s unknown how much they gave and who else is involved.

No Labels is organized as a 501(c)(4), which means that it is not legally required to release the identities of donors. You may remember that designation from the midterm elections, when similarly organized groups spent millions of anonymously donated dollars on campaign ads.

You mean the same folks who derided the hidden money in politics is hiding something? Amazing! Well politico mentions who is involved:

And its speakers—who ranged from Republican moderates like ex-Virginia Rep. Tom Davis to liberal Democrats like New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand—sang the praises of cooperation and compromise.

But the only Republicans present at Columbia University’s modern, square Alfred Lerner Hall seemed to be those who had recently lost primary races, such as South Carolina Rep. Bob Inglis and Delaware Rep. Mike Castle, or former Republicans like Florida Gov. Charlie Crist and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. No other senior elected Republican officials were in attendance,

All of these people are folks who lost and are part of the establishment, it’s as bi-partisan as I am (and I’m NOT), so what is it all about? Stacy McCain who writes for money and doesn’t pretend otherwise has the answer:

All of which is to say that this is an outright scam, and the only question you really need to ask about this kind of political hustle is: Cui bono?

Who benefits here? What’s the bottom line? Where’s the payoff, who’s paying and who’s getting paid? Before we identify the sow, let’s see which piglets are sucking the teats:

It’s something of an odd conceit, given the decentralized way powerful grass-roots movements generally come together these days. After all, MoveOn.org and the Tea Party groups sprang up organically and in a decentralized way, embraced by angry citizens circulating online petitions and holding rallies.
By contrast, No Labels was created by two Washington consultants, the Democratic fund-raiser Nancy Jacobson and the Republican image-shaper Mark McKinnon, and its slick opening event featured throngs of journalists, free boxed lunches and a song written for the occasion by the pop sensation Akon.

Ding! Ding! Ding! This scam is funded by Democratic money and scripted by the man whose name is a synonym for everything that’s wrong with the Republican Party.

So this No Labels operation is a stealth-Democrat ripoff perpetrated with the help of two-faced RINO backstabbers.

Or to put it another way, it is an attempt by consultants to stay relevant and keep making money and stay relevant because if the actual grass-roots are put in play, then their ability to suck money off of taxpayer dime is kaput!

I make my living selling myself and my radio show. When people buy from me they meet me and know exactly what they are getting. These people are selling a wisp of smoke that doesn’t really exist.

Will they be able to fool enough people to change elections? Likely not, but they might manage to keep themselves in other people’s money for a while, and that’s what it really is all about. It’s the time share media all over again.

Memeorandum thread here.

Update: Doug Powers at Michelle’s has a new logo for them. Somehow it looks familiar

The GOP’s chairman Michael Steele has been hit or miss since being in office but in the end he was the boss when the GOP managed to win a historic number of seats:

(Granted he had little to do with it but he didn’t mess it up either)

According to the latest report Steele is going to give it another go:

Controversial Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele, who last month presided over the GOP’s biggest electoral gains since 1938, will announce tonight that he is running for re-election, Fox News has learned from two RNC members.

One earlier report suggested he was not running and apparently the establishment GOP has a real winner on deck as my scheduled guest for Saturday Dan Riehl explains:

Unfortunately, the establishment-backed candidate to presumably replace current RNC Chair Michael Steele, Maria Cino, opted out of a recent grassroots-focused political event for the candidates. The FreedomWorks and conservative caucus sponsored event was reported on at Big Government on November 2nd. Chris Stirewalt pointed out her absence as well, via FoxNews.

Worse, Stirewalt’s item is primarily focused on how establishment money is driving the race behind the scenes and Cino’s Mary Matalin-hosted fund raiser tonight is only one of Cino’s links to it. Her lobbying for Obamacare on behalf of Pfizer and a $1,000 donation to Mike Castle during Delaware’s contentious GOP primary may prove to be deal breakers for members of the GOP grassroots hoping that the GOP might turn the page on the same old, same old way of doing business in Washington that brought us Obamacare and has left America with staggering debt.

Just what the GOP needs a person who ignores the Tea party grassroots and lobbied for Obamacare.

This is exactly what Scarborough was talking about today. I have a nasty feeling that the GOP establishment will attempt to play the race card to advance a candidate that simply doesn’t go for conservatism.

They won’t like the pro-abortion connection either, that’s a deal-breaker with me.

On January 20th the day after the Scott Brown Election, commenting on the arrogance of the defeated Democrats for the electorate I wrote this:

If the GOP doesn’t take advantage of this foolishness it’s only because they are not trying.

Well the Massachusetts GOP tried so hard that they didn’t even bother to run a candidate against the vulnerable Coakley. If it hadn’t been for Jim McKenna’s write-in campaign she would be sailing to re-election
Today at National Review ObiWan again used a military metaphor:

Jim: Generally, what should the Republicans be doing?

Obi-Wan: Avoid the saddest mistake that’s made in conflict – McClellan at Antietam, Mead at Gettysburg, or the Falaise Gap in WWII, or not letting Patton go for the Siegfried Line before that terrible winter and most of our casualties in Europe. Experts lack imagination and can’t seize the chance for Cannae-like victory.

Can you imagine with all the ethical vulnerabilities you have been showing about Schumer – not to mention that he’s more a symbol of this Congress than anyone and he’s got pretty unimpressive numbers – the GOP is not even mounting a campaign against him?

That the trick Attack Attack Attack

The Democrats have been under siege (ala Petersburg) defending unpopular policies that republicans have been nailing them on, first slowly then finally breaking through their flanks on both left and right. They are fleeing this president in the same way as the Confederates were fleeing Grant. This Mosque is one issue that the President has decided to stop and fight on as did the Confederates at Sayler’s Creek. Sheridan had the right answer saying: “Go Right through them, they are demoralized as hell.”

And as Stacy points out it’s not just timidness it’s not knowing where the fight actually is:

Nothing illustrates the disconnect between money and brains in the GOP than a fact highlighted by Jimmie Bise: Charlie Crist raised $4.3 million in a single three-month period of 2009.

The more I think about that, the angrier I get. Who were these more-money-than-brains people who wrote those checks for Crist? Did they just take the word of John Cornyn and Jim Greer that Crist was the man to beat in the Florida GOP Senate primary?

A fool and his money are soon parted, and there are times when the Republican Party resembles nothing so much as a scam for separating rich fools from their money.

For $4.3 million, you could have paid 86 bloggers $50,000 a year.

As I have been living off of $27k a year unemployment the number is staggering but more important is that 86 bloggers putting up 6 posts a day could literally write a post about EVERY SINGLE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE RUNNING FOR CONGRESS EVERY SINGLE DAY.

If even half of said bloggers were on the road covering campaigns you could have fresh stories that come direct from the districts boosting said candidates rather than the MSM stories attacking them coming from Washington. What kind of Stories? Well how about reports from candidate forums Georgia or Profiles of candidates in Maryland or interviews with candidates in NC and California or reports direct from Alaska.

These kind of reports, positive reports coming out on a daily basis keep the opposition demoralized, instead of being able to force us to play on their field.

and the last warning comes from Glenn Reynolds and reader:

But if the GOP establishment fights us to the end, then it will take an actual third-party to engage the public in transforming our political system. That will take much more time, and much more effort. And it will be a bloody mess (hopefully only figuratively! my biggest fear is otherwise) for years as we clean up the pieces of the train wreck they have driven us into.

Indeed. As I’ve warned before, if the GOP retakes Congress and then blows it, we’re likely to see not only a third-party Presidential challenge, but a lot of third-party challengers for Congressional seats.

It’s like Ramsey’s Kitchen Nightmares, you get one shot, don’t blow it.

Update: Yet another Instalanche! Thanks Glenn. Hi folks, since your last visit we have scared John Olver, been Scheduled Saturday for another guest appearance on WCRN from 2-4 p.m. and should have a new Examiner column up before I hit the sack. Update: My examiner article Will the voters buy the One Nation timeshare is now up