by Linda Szugyi

Following state and local politics is a pretty tough thing to do when you move every couple of years.  Since we don’t have cable and I rarely turn on the local channels, Florida’s 13th District special election slipped right by.  All I managed to do was make sure it wasn’t my district.  It was an important election, though.  At least until David Jolly won.  With a GOP victory, maybe it wasn’t so important after all.

Regardless of its value as a harbinger, the special election did spark enough interest in me to look up the prospects for my own district, Florida’s 14th.  The spark was quickly doused by the lack of information about those running against Democrat incumbent Kathy Castor.

Both Politics1 and US Elections list two Republican candidates, John Mark Grey and John Coney.  While most folks listed as candidates for office in the state of Florida in 2014 already have a website linked, neither of these gentlemen do.  I know, it’s still early in the year.  The primaries aren’t held until August.  Still, it’s frustrating when even the oddballs have websites up and running.

The news about my district is even more disheartening:  No Obstacles To Kathy Castor’s Progress.  And look at this map of House races, where Castor floats safely in her little blue boat amid a red sea.  She won reelection in 2012 with 70% of the vote.  The closest race she ran was in 2010, when she got 60% of the vote.

Is my district as hopeless as it seems?  Since Kathy Castor continues to wear her support of Obamacare as a badge of honor, she should be vulnerable.  For heaven’s sake, she continues to display on her congressional website Politifact’s 2013 Lie of the Year:  If you like your health care plan, you can keep it.  (Hat tip.)

Kathy Castor

Are either of the listed Republicans serious candidates?  Will more candidates surface?

By the way, another special election will be held on June 24th, in Florida’s 19th District.  Will it get as much attention as the 13th District did?

We’ll see.  Stay tuned.

I’m one of Da Tech Guy’s Magnificent Seven guest writers.  If you like our writing, please consider subscribing to Da Tech Guy’s Blog so that he may continue to host The Magnificent Seven.  Thanks.


Olimometer 2.52

It’s Monday and with 8 days left to the month I am still over $850 shy of the Mortgage that’s due in a week.

That’s why you don’t see the weekly goal this morning, because if I make that goal I’ll still be nearly $700 shy to pay the bills this month.

We had a good start yesterday but I still need a minimum of four $25 tip jar hitters every day for the next nine days simply to come up a mere $100 short.

It is still possible to make our goal but only you help. If there was ever a time for you to kick in if you were thinking of it, it’s now.

So I’m asking you to hit DaTipJar below if you possibly can.


With 61 more $20 a month subscribers this site will be able to cover its bills for a full year.

I would ask that you do subscribe by hitting the button below. If your finances allow it, consider choosing Hat level or better. A subscription comes not only with exclusive commentary, but on a weekly basis you will have the opportunity to get direct access to me by phone to provide feedback or suggestions to make sure this site is worthy of your financial support and patronage.


Florida Palm TreesBy John Ruberry

Tuesday is primary election day in Illinois and most of the drama is on the Republican side. The winner of the GOP gubernatorial race stands a very good chance of defeating unpopular Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn.

The US Senate race until recently hasn’t been attracting much attention in the Land of Lincoln. Competing for the opportunity to face longtime incumbent Dick Durbin  are Doug Truax and Jim Oberweis.

Truax, 43, is a political newcomer who is a West Point and an Army Ranger School graduate. He runs his own healthcare consulting business. Oberweis, 67, has been serving as a state senator for a year. He enjoys terrific name recognition, his Oberweis Dairy stores can be found throughout the Chicago area.

This is the seventh time Oberweis has run for office in twelve years–and his third time running for the US Senate. “Obi” has competed for governor and twice for the US House–and after spending $10 million of his own money on these contests, he can only look at his state Senate run as a victory. Oberweis is known for his gaffes and his overall sloppy campaign style. He’s Joe Biden with a full head of hair.

Oberweis is concluding his worst campaign effort yet. Last week NBC 5 Chicago’s MaryAnn Ahern discovered that a little more than a week before the primary, Oberweis, who has been ducking debate challenges from Truax, was at his second home in southwestern Florida. When Ahern contacted Oberweis by telephone, he refused to reveal his location to her.

I can’t imagine even Dick Durbin stooping that low.

Morton Grove, IL on Wednesday
Morton Grove, IL on Wednesday

Oberweis and his wife claim their Florida home as a homestead exemption, gaining a $50,000 tax credit. If they used their Sugar Grove, Illinois home for the same purpose, they’d get only a $6,000 break. Oberweis’ wife has a Florida driver’s license and is registered to vote in the Sunshine State. She won’t be voting for her husband on Tuesday.

As for the Florida trip, Obi claimed that he promised his wife that he’d spend her birthday with her. Of course the Oberweises could have done that in Illinois, which got hit with another snowstorm while they were walking among the palm trees.

Prior to the Florida trip and its fallout, the better-known Oberweis enjoyed a huge lead in the polls. But should the political gadfly win, Durbin will certainly hand him his next defeat. If Truax pulls ahead and beats Oberweis, he still faces an uphill challenge. Maybe even an up-mountain challenge. But if 2014 turns into a wave election, as the American Thinker’s Richard Baehr muses, Truax can score an upset.

Durbin, 69, is just sort of there. He has never been well-liked even in this Democratic state. For nearly his entire adult life Durbin has been a politician, or worked for a politician. Durbin, the second-ranking senator in the Democratic caucus, never votes against the party line.

Professional pols have destroyed Illinois–which has the lowest credit rating of the states and suffers from an unemployment rate much higher than the national rate. The Prairie State has the most-underfunded public pension system of the 50 states.

Illinois just might vote for real change.


Olimometer 2.52

It’s Sunday a new week and I hate to start it on a down note but we’ve now had three straight weeks without making our goal.

Without 15 $25 tip jar hits we will have no prospect of making mortgage this month.

I’m going to bluntly say I need you to hit this tip jar if you if this experiment is going to succeed.

Your call.


With 61 more $20 a month subscribers this site will be able to cover its bills for a full year.

I would ask that you do subscribe by hitting the button below.  If your finances allow it, consider choosing Hat level or better.  A subscription comes not only with exclusive commentary, but on a weekly basis you will have the opportunity to get direct access to me by phone to provide feedback or suggestions to make sure this site is worthy of your financial support and patronage.


I know that even though I’m about to die, I’d not trade places with you for all the treasure in the universe.

The Price  1981

For the last few days I’ve been thinking of how I was going to deal with the story of Robert Marucci at Robert Stacy McCain’s site. Particularly this quote:

His mother, Melyssa Lieb, said she knew her son was working in adult films, adding that he took the roles to support her financially. “I think he’s the most awesome person in the world,” she said.

How do you adequately make the point of what this means to us as a culture or a society?

Then I saw this at Glenn Reynolds site:

“That there are dramatically fewer men willing and able to safeguard family prosperity is perhaps America’s greatest — and most unrecognized — problem. . . . Women gained all 74,000 jobs added to payrolls in December, and among the world’s seven biggest economies, America is last in the share of ‘prime age’ males working — just behind Italy

and I remembered this from 2009

Researchers were conducting a study comparing the views of men in their 20s who had never been exposed to pornography with regular users.

But their project stumbled at the first hurdle when they failed to find a single man who had not been seen it.

“We started our research seeking men in their 20s who had never consumed pornography,” said Professor Simon Louis Lajeunesse. “We couldn’t find any.”

If you want to understand what this means let me spell it out to you:

1. The Natural inclination to defend one’s son not withstanding, I am appalled by the mother’s reaction here. I would be in the street and eating in a soup kitchen before I allow my 18 year old son make the mistake of prostituting himself to “support” me. And yes when you “identify as straight” and take money to have group sex with these guys

Florida_Gay_Teen_Porn_Sean_Cody_Mountain_Getaway via viral read

for the pleasure of buyers & online streamers that is “prostituting oneself”.  That’s going to make a great google search for a future potential employer.

2. We have normalized porn to the point where teenagers consider it no big deal to display oneself sexually for the entire world. That is the logical result of exposure to porn from an early age, our extremely sexualized culture, the push over the last twenty years to ignore and or encourage sexual experimentation by our youth, and the decline in parenting by the baby boom generation passed onto their children.

3. What does it say about the Obama economy when a young man considers this the most viable option to support himself and his mother?  With teen unemployment being what it is will this administration point to this as a job created or saved?

This is the logical conclusion to the cultural changes of the last 20 years.  Expect this to become a whole lot common & expect the media to start celebrating these choices very soon.

I must conclude the single best thing you can do for the future of this country is contribute to a fund for students to go to a Catholic Primary and High School and I would urge Dioceses around the country to do what it can to make such school more affordable.  If you’re not Catholic find a different religious or private school and send your kids there.

Closing thought for those who are now screaming “hate

If Marucci was a woman having sex with five guys on camera to support her mother and father would you be cheering?  Would you consider “her” a role model that you want your daughters to emulate or would people say she was exploited?

I know this question will not likely get me on a Time Warner or Comcast but what profit a man if he gets a cable deal…


On Morning Joe today (where you go to find out what the left wants to say) there were two stories that seemed unrelated but taken together could mean an awful lot.

The first was a story out of Florida, the Transformation of Charlie Crist is now complete:

Charlie Crist is running for Florida governor as a Democrat.

The worst-kept secret in politics was confirmed Friday afternoon when the Republican Party of Florida spotted Crist’s official filing with the state Division of Elections.

The former Republican governor turned Democrat plans a formal announcement at 10 a.m. Monday at St. Petersburg’s Albert Whitted Park, 480 Bayshore Drive SE, but the state GOP beat him to the punch.

Crist is a poster boy for what I described last week when talking about political parties as fraternal orders:

It’s not the Elks, the Eagles or the Lions club. All are decent clubs that do good things but there really isn’t much of a difference between one or the other,

A political party isn’t supposed to be like that. A party has a platform and a particular beliefs. In theory a person joins and supports a political party because of those common beliefs and values and votes for one party over another because he or she wants to advance those ideas or values.

If people are however in a party because it happens to be the club they joined then belief and principles becomes “flexible” because the purpose is to serve the “club” rather than the people.

Crist doesn’t care what club he belongs to as long as it brings him power and status.

Joe Scarborough is likely right on the money when he said Rick Scott will eat him alive but you never know.

Our second story is not of a governor’s race but of a Senate Race, more specifically a Senate primary in Texas:

Texas tea party activists eager to send another firebrand in the mold of Ted Cruz to the Senate have launched a movement to draft evangelical historian David Barton to run against Sen. John Cornyn.

Barton, who hosts a daily radio broadcast, has wide name recognition and respect on the religious right as a Constitutional scholar dedicated to restoring the America the Founding Fathers envisioned, though his scholarship on that point has been widely discredited in the world of academia.

Given how far left the world of Academia is today that would be a positive plus in a Texas primary

Political analysts doubt he could take down a candidate as well-funded, well-known and widely endorsed as Cornyn. But they’re not willing to count out an insurgent from the right — not after watching Cruz come from nowhere two years ago. Barton has deep political roots, having spent nearly a decade as vice chairman of the Texas Republican Party. He is a skilled orator. And he’s got the stagecraft down pat: He travels the country to deliver rousing tributes to patriotism, often in red, white and blue Western shirts.

Now Cornyn is certainly a lot stronger than David Dewhurst and has a huge power base to draw on so normally this would be not be that bad a situation but there is one piece of his past that is about to be highlighted:

May 2009

A week after saying he wasn’t taking sides in the high-profile GOP primary in the Sunshine State, Cornyn, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, endorsed Florida Gov. Charlie Crist.

That didn’t sit well with the base and caused at least one blogger to decline an invitation to a conference call when he was informed any question on that endorsement was off limits:

Since that was the case, I declined to attend the teleconference. Going on the line with John Cornyn and not being able to talk about the Crist endorsement would be like doing a teleconference with Blago right after he appointed Burris and being unable to ask him about it.
I included these lines in my reply email to Mr. Cornyn’s staffer,

One thing he might want to think about though: If today, in May, he’s scared to take questions from his own side on this issue, how ugly is it going to get if he lets this build up for a few months?

It’s not too late for him to say it was a mistake to endorse anyone and publicly change his mind. It will save the NRSC millions in endorsements and will make that primary fight considerably less ugly.

It provoked outrage from bloggers

It smacks of a deal cut to get Crist to skip a re-election campaign to go after the Senate seat. While Crist’s popularity is an asset, Crist’s positions on issues are going to give conservatives and even moderates some angst in the party. Crist openly supported the Porkulus plan, which would have put him with Arlen Specter, Olympia Snowe, and Susan Collins as the only Republicans in Congress who did. Cornyn himself fought against Porkulus. So why is the NRSC endorsing Crist over Marco Rubio 15 months ahead of the primary?

A lot of outrage

The attempt of NRSC Chairman John Cornyn and Florida GOP Chairman Jim Greer to fix the Senate primary for their buddy, Charlie Crist, was the last straw in a long series of similar moves by the Republican establishment, which had been meddling in the primary process for years, although never so blatantly as in this Florida Senate race. When GOP insiders think they can hand-pick the Republican candidate 15 months before the primary, something has gone seriously awry in the party machinery.

It helped start the Not One Red Cent movement had democrats openly asking if they should just vote Crist

And when Cornyn was re-elected as GOP chair:

Please tell me exactly what justifies any need “to be fair” to John Cornyn? Thanks to his blundering interference in Florida, Charlie Crist walked off with more than $10 million in GOP donations.Why should Cornyn and the NRSC get a free pass while on their failures, while over at the RNC, political director Gentry Collins resigned and presented a specific indictment of the organization?

That was the last straw.

Now imagine 4 years later a GOP primary in Texas featuring John Cornyn against a strong Tea Party favorite with national name recognition at the same time that Charlie Crist is running for governor of Florida as a Democrat after switching parties and endorsing Barack Obama in 2012.

The ads write themselves.

I’ll give the last word to John Hawkins who Nailed it in 2009.

Mark my words, this is likely to get much nastier over time.

If I was Cornyn I’d be afraid:

Update:  And the bad news just keeps coming:

How on Earth does an allegedly seasoned GOP political operator like a Josh Holmes think it wise to run to the Times with what amounts to a jack-booted attempt to stifle both free market capitalism and political dissent? Those are supposed to be core values for the GOP. Yet, here we see a DC GOP establishment on display at its worst—saying, in effect, “If you engage in a form of commerce we don’t like, we will try to destroy you! If you attempt to exercise your First Amendment right to free speech to say something with which we disagree, we will try to destroy you!”

I think Dan Riehl  would rather be writing about the Obama administration trying to gimmick Twitter to silence dissent but instead we have this:

I’m ashamed to think that a party to which I am connected is even thinking in such terms within its inner circles.

THAT is the message Holmes sent to the base here. And whether the Beltway GOP likes it or not, it’s the only one an increasingly restive base is going to take away from all this. And that’s only the beginning of why this is so bad for Mitch McConnell, now likely facing an emboldened and even more empowered primary challenger back home in Kentucky.

This is as stupid as it gets.

I’ve always fallen within the camp that says that reforming the GOP from within, returning it to its anti-establishment roots, has the highest probability of success. There are plenty of other fringe parties afoot in the U.S.; adding a Tea Party to those ranks will succeed in widening the fringe, while simultaneously making the Democrat’s mopping-up operations easier.  And that position’s irrefutable, as we watch the elected Tea Party reformers like Cruz, Paul, Lee in the Senate do two things (1) inspire the base, and (2) receive fatwahs from the elite.

It’s really simple, does the GOP want conservative new media writing stories like this or would they rather have us hitting democrats?

Olimometer 2.52

It’s Monday and Normally I’d be a tad worried as I’m only $2 on the way to my $305 paycheck.

But last week started the same way and ended with my 2nd best week ever.

Granted by this time next week I’ll have to cover the cost of both Chris & Vin as well but if 15 of you kicked in $20 It would be a magnificent week.

I haven’t dived deeply into polls much lately because frankly there has been no point, Mitt Romney has this race and baring the “Live Boy Dead girl” scenario it’s not changing. (actually considering Romany’s rep it wouldn’t take a dead girl, a live girl would shatter his clean image completely)

But with one week to go the last gasp effort to rally the MSNBC troops took place today on Morning Joe as they touted the Quinnipiac/CBS?NYT polls Saying Obama is up 5 in Ohio with a week to go.

What really got me was their claim that the Quinnipiac poll was the “most accurate” and again playing the “poll denier” card. I’ve personally found their numbers the least believable and while they were talking about the fights in other states as an alternative to Ohio for Romney I looked up the internals of this Ohio/VA/Florida poll and found this:

After talking about how reliable Quinnipiac is, for 15 minutes and while I was tweeting out the D+8 samples in all of these states D+7 in Florida, they suddenly pivoted as Mark Halperin brought up the D+8 sample and people asked how can this be the case if Mitt is up by huge margins among independents in this poll?

At this time they made the case that the split in the sample defines the electorate while I argue that the accurate of the poll is based on how the splits match the electorate.

Now Polls have limitation based on the response rate and the various methods of getting people to answer but the actual registration and demographics of a state are a reality, they may change over time but they are what they are no matter what but of a sample is used.

In the 7 AM Hour more of the same and in the 8 AM hour they repeated this nonsense. This isn’t a poll, this is a last gasp before Media Credibility day arrives and it becomes impossible to deny what already exists.

That the Morning Joe team is spending a show trying to sell the accuracy of a D+8 poll in Ohio & VA & +7 in Fla to their far left base speaks volumes, here is what it says to me:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

When you are reduced to Chuck Todd arguing body language in private conversations that’s pretty bad, by contrast you have Romney people canvasing during the damn storm.

Folks, there is going to be a turnout effort in Ohio like you’ve never seen. George Cullen has been canvassing door-to-door for the past five weeks. He usually hits about 50 doors a day, but only got 25 under the storm conditions yesterday. He’s a West Point graduate who served six years in the Army, and he says, “The conservatives are very energized.”

Yeah this is a D+8 state SURE! It will be fun to watch these guys next Wednesday.

Update: Just called Robert Stacy McCain on the ground in Ohio and asked about the “Body Language” stuff from Chuck Todd: “It’s crazy” He spoke to Kevin Madden on Sunday one of the top guys in the Romney Campaign after rally. He seemed calm and laid back. He hasn’t seen any of this scary “Body Language” from the Romney folks.

They are still working hard, they have not slacked off nor would anyone expect them to but if our friends on the left want to tell themselves this, as the folks in the south say “Bless their Hearts”.

Update 2: Ed Morrissey elaborates:

In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election. If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead. However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday. In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.

I guess that explains why we didn’t see Ed on the show today. I suspect that message wouldn’t have been all that welcome.

Update 3: Instalanche and Michael Graham who you might recall was the owner of the site “Anybody But Mitt” says what is coming:

I believe we’re on the verge of a solid Romney win for two reasons. One is the objective evidence. The other is the ugly desperation of the Obama campaign in its final days.

and he raises a very important point I never thought of:

The president, on the other hand, has peaked at 47 percent. The Battleground Poll model shows Obama losing 52 percent to 47 percent. Rasmussen daily tracking has Obama losing 49 percent to 47 percent. Pew has him tied: 47 percent to 47 percent. But more important, all the polls show Obama sliding or stuck. None show any upward movement.

Obama supporters are quick to tell you “the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.” Two things: a) that’s what candidates who are behind always say; b) this is election day.

Next Wednesday is going to be fun.

Update 4: Stacy who I so rudely woke up in the first update asks an obvious question:

You might think some reporter at the New York Times, which co-sponsored this poll, would think it worth his while to interview the people at Quinnipiac and ask where they’re getting these weird over-samples of Democrats. What is causing this? How is it that Republicans report greater voting enthusiasm by such large margins, and yet are underrepresented in the poll’s sample? It makes no sense.

I’d love to hear the answer.

BTW PPP poll now being touted, Iowa Sample is D+5 Wisconsin D+4

We are now a week away from election day and the MSM has been given a gift called Sandy.

Why do I call it a gift to the MSM? Because it gives them a story that overwhelms all others allowing them to put the election on the second or third tier as Romney continues his march.

I have been telling you for a while that the best way to determine what is happening is what people are saying, vs what people are doing.

Yesterday I was listening to Rush on a Minnesota radio station because all the local stations were all Sandy all the time and what did to my wondering eyes did appear but news of Bill Clinton going right there.

Now let’s be clear, There is the president, there is VP and there is Bill Clinton, these are the big guns for the Democrats and are not deployed lightly.

You are sending the single most valuable non-office asset the Democrats have to Minnesota? Not Colorado? Not Nevada, not Wisconsin, not Iowa, not Virginia but MINNESOTA?

How on earth do you justify this move with a week to go unless Obama is in trouble there and if Obama is in trouble in Minnesota then….

As for Pennsylvania we Reported Paul Ryan has done events there, which tells you plenty remember Time is the one commodity you can’t get more of and if Ryan was campaigning in PA last week that means something. Now both sides are spending money in the state but with a difference. The GOP money is a super pac outside of the campaign, the Obama money is DIRECTLY FROM THE CAMPAIGN.

If the White house is spending its limited funds in Pennsylvania then that says…

Finally Florida, the big swing state what are we hearing about Florida.


Florida WAS a swing state, it was a state everyone spend a lot of time talking about how Paul Ryan was going to drive seniors away from the party.

None of this has happened. This state is in now a Romney State

If the game is no longer being played in Florida and is now being played in Minnesota & Pennsylvania know what that says?

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

And if you don’t believe they are demoralized as hell, look at the faces of the MSM.

Stacy who is on the ground in Ohio gets it:

Yesterday, Jim Messina called the Romney super-PAC’s ad buy in Pennsylvania “desperate.” Today? Yeah, Obama’s buying ads in Pennsylvania.

Does this mean Romney is going to win Pennsylvania? No, but it does mean that it’s close enough that Team Obama couldn’t afford to let Romney air ads unopposed in Pennsylvania. And this news, coming just four days after it was reported that Team Obama is buying ads in Minnesota, is the best indication that Democrat insiders know that the president’s re-election is seriously endangered.

Guys, Romney is going to win this race and it’s not going to be close.

…with this statement concerning their just released polls:

In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats — 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats. . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

Amazing how the samples matter once Romney’s numbers improved in Ohio, I wonder where they buy their Cheetos?

Meanwhile in VA the previous D+4 sample becomes an R+1 samples and guess what? Romney now has a +1 pt lead! Change the sample and you change the results. How about that!

“But DaTechGuy” you say, “That party identification is psychological, people call themselves more Republican because the GOP is doing better and Romney is doing better.”

Well if that’s the case then we should see change in Florida. While there seems to be universal agreement that the Debate Moved numbers for Romney Florida remains unchanged, how can that be when other Florida Polls have moved…

…what a coincidence, the D vs R sample hasn’t moved and PRESTO the Obama Romney gap doesn’t move, even when the entire universe concludes Obama is in free fall.

Funny how that works isn’t it?

Mind you Florida & VA are the same states the Suffolk decided not to poll anymore because Romney had it cold.

Why do I have a sneaking suspicion that after the next debate (or perhaps after tonight’s VP debate) the party samples will move and the numbers will improve for the Obama campaign?

If people don’t realize they are being played it’s only because they don’t want to know it.

Update: take a look at the party splits vs the poll results from CBS

It’s worth noting that there is no measure of if people “lean” amazing how the results seem to match the samples within a point or two.

Yesterday I saw a poll out of New Hampshire, that was so unbelievable no incredible in its results that I thought it impossible that a TV station or a college would report it.

With one month remaining before the November 6 election, Barack Obama has opened up a statistically significant lead over Mitt Romney in the battleground state of New Hampshire. In the most recent Granite State Poll, 52% of likely New Hampshire voters plan to vote for Obama, 37% say they will support Romney,

There were so incredible that WMUR the TV station that commissioned the poll led their analysis thus:

The latest WMUR Granite State Poll is either wildly off or we will look back five weeks from now on Election Day and point to this date as the moment we knew Mitt Romney lost New Hampshire.

They are hedging on their own poll. My first thought was bad party splits, I was rather shocked to see an equal party metric in this poll. As this so greatly contradicts what I’ve seen on the ground I continued to look at the numbers and found these figures on the 2008 election within the sample:

215 McCain Palin Voters
309 Obama Biden Voters
14 Other
38 Did not vote 2008

That totals up to 576 people in the sample. How does that split? Here is the math

215/576 = 37.3% McCain Palin
309/576 = 53.6% Obama Biden
14/576 = 2.4% Other
38/576 = 6.5% Did not vote

Difference 53.6- 37.3= 16.3

So you have a sample with a bias of 16.3 points in terms of 2008 voters that is now +15, that would indicate a slight loss of support, but strangely enough they didn’t include a question on their votes in 2010. Just to remind you here is what happened in the state house that year:

Maybe it’s just me but I think this poll might be a tad more informative if it included how the respondents voted in 2010

It’s worth noting that a previous poll from the same group in Aug had a much different sample

McCain Palin 220/529 = 41.5
Obama Biden 259/529= 48.9%
Other 21/529 = 3.9%
Did not vote 29/529= 5.4%

Do you see the magic trick, you play with a sample and suddenly you have a trend. As I predicted after the booing God debacle:

Do not be surprised if there is a negative bounce from this convention or a poll released with a Dem +6-12 in order to hide just how bad things are.

And that’s what we’ve seen, polls so skewed that we have a convention bounce supposedly from a Clinton Speech that nobody watched because it was opposite a football game.

But even such BS can’t go on for long, particularly when people are finally catching on with the poll manipulation.

So what is the Liberal media et/al to do?

Well if it’s harder to see Romney behind everywhere put out a national poll that is close (+3 Obama with a +8 Obama 2008 sample & +6 D sample) to show our bona fides then as it’s harder to sell Romney behind everywhere in Florida suddenly usa a D+2 sample instead of the +9, in Virgina go D+5 instead of D + ungodly while in Ohio the state we’ve been saying Romney HAS to win we show Romney down 11 with a sample that is 50% dem and 39% +11.D and violá we have exactly what we need to be credible:

A more “balanced” poll showing a slight Romney trend without losing the “Mitt in Trouble” narrative.

The best part of it for the MSM? The media can by playing the sample game can generate the trend they want and will do so as long as they believe they can affect the results. The moment they decide it can’t be pulled off will be the dawn of Media Credibility day when the mission changes as it did the day before the 2010 elections:

So instead their new mission is to be perceived as actually reporting news rather than spinning it. Thus comes media credibility day, the day the press decides to act like actual reporters instead of liberal advocates, it will last long enough for them to claim that they called the election correctly…

And the moment the election is over

…then it will be back to the MSM that we all know and…well that we all know.

That will be the tell.

Update: Ann Althouse got there before me:

President James Madison: “You’ll give us victories, then, you think?”

Captain Charles Stewart: “We do, and not upon irrational premises.”

Madison: “Which victories will give us ships; for with victories congress will supply them faster than they can be lost”

 Fletcher Pratt Preble’s Boys  William Sloane Associates 1950

I’ve had a bit of debate with Doug Mataconis of Outside the Beltway on twitter concerning the inevitability of the coming race, that was generated by this tweet:

I took exception to this and he countered declaring:

He mentioned how the air war on Newt was successful and I counted that it was because the Newt people had other conservative alternatives, yet he named his winner:

and explained why a Santorum win just wouldn’t cut it after a NH loss:

Doug is a smart guy but he is making the same mistake that the Madison administration almost made in 1812. It’s based on a rational thought, after all the US navy consisted of 16 ships the largest being six frigates (think Cruiser) vs the 600+ ship British navy that had a fleet with line of battle ships by the score, however once the fight was actually engaged and the USS Constitution, USS United States, USS Wasp all won improbable victories against a navy that not only had the reputation of invincibility but had a record that backed it up, the entire equation changed:

The results of these battles were explosive, Congress suddenly voted for 6 more frigates of the Constitution Class and four battleships of the line when the country had none before.

So it is with Santorum, if Rick Santorum manages to win Iowa that win will produce not only sufficient funds, but Tea Party backing that will give him organization not only in Florida but beyond.

It’s true it will not be enough to move New Hampshire any more than the 18 gun USS Wasp after defeating the HMS Frolic was able to avoid being taken by the 74 gun Battleship HMS Poictiers but just as the Wasp’s defeat and capture did not cause the congress to abandon the new ship building program, nor will the forgone conclusion in New Hampshire prevent Rick Santorum from taking full advantage of the Iowa result, particularly if other conservative Tea Party candidates are no longer in play.

By Florida we will know if Santorum’s performance is enough to make the difference or if Mitt Romney’s divide and conquer strategy lasted long enough to win the day.

Update: Shhh don’t tell Doug:

Rick Santorum’s poll numbers aren’t the only thing on the rise. The former senator from Pennsylvania’s fundraising figures are also skyrocketing.

A senior Santorum adviser tells CNN the campaign raised more money in the last week than they raised on-line the past six months, adding that fundraising is between 300% and 400% higher on a daily basis than it was just ten days ago.

Update: the phrase “of line of battle ships” somehow was missing from a paragraph, now re-inserted.

and the votes don’t count but WOW!

Herman Cain won the Presidency 5 Florida Straw poll with 996 votes, 37.1 percent of the total, blowing past Rick Perry and Ron Paul, both of whom had organized to win here. He more than doubled the Perry vote; more delegates chose Cain than chose Perry and Romney, combined.

Byron York may have seen it coming:

Given that, it is not at unusual at all for delegates here to say, “I love Herman Cain, but I just don’t think he can win.” And that, to committed Cain supporters, is a source of great frustration. “Because of the people who say they love him but he can’t get elected, it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy,” says a man named Jimmy from Wilbur-By-The-Sea, Florida. “If they would all just love him and support him and not say, ‘Well, can’t get elected so I’m going to pick Romney or Perry’ — if they would all just love him and get behind him, he’d be the guy.”

Could Cain actually win? It seems unlikely, but it’s an outside possibility. Cain’s fortunes depend on whether the delegates here decide to vote strategically — to support the candidate they consider the most likely to win the Republican nomination and go on to general-election victory — or to vote their principles and let practical matters work themselves out later. If the delegates go the latter route, a lot will choose Herman Cain.

Robert Stacy McCain who was on the Cain bandwagon before there was a bandwagon has been restrained and calm with only seven update, the latest must bring tears to Bill Kristol’s eyes:

Permit me humbly to suggest that this puts a decisive end to all that Chris Christie talk. I mean, how bad would it look if Republicans brought in a new candidate because they were afraid a black man might win the nomination?

Let me remind you of what we had to say about Mr. Cain after the debate:

Herman Cain: Every time Herman Cain is on that stage the GOP electorate likes him more. With his cash campaign and his consistently good performances I think he will still be there when a lot of the other on that stage are gone.

Ironically we talked about Cain on the show I went around the table, and of the people who saw the debate, everyone but me called Herman Cain the winner of the debate, and everyone liked him.

This morning on FOX I saw everyone discounting the Cain win yesterday, Exit question: If Jon Huntsman had won won would the media be discounting it?