It appears that the Democrats/Media/Left (which is all basically one thing) has decided that the best way to bring down Trump is to convince GOP officeholders in the bubble that there is political danger to supporting the GOP agenda (as defined by the votes) in general and this GOP candidate in particular.

I suspect these tactics work because:

  1. Many GOP office holders apparently don’t look outside the bubble as I mentioned yesterday and don’t understand that right now they, and not the media and the left, have power.
  2. Many other GOP office holders apparently don’t really believe what they ran on and are only interested in the power that comes from office and the potential wealth that can come from it.

That being the case there is one obvious tactic that the Trump administration should use.

Trump primaries.

The Trump administration should start examining the pool of potential pro-Trump tea party candidates in districts where GOP members are tempted to enable the Democrat attacks on the President and make it clear to said folks that the difference between an unknown underfunded candidate that has no prayer in a district and a candidate with name recognition, embraced by local GOP and tea party activists and a national fundraising base is a single tweet.

This is very practical because polls have made it abundantly clear that while the media’s all Trump doom all the time is having an effect in DC, it’s also clear that outside of the bubble it has not harmed the President’s popularity with those who elected him one single bit, and in fact is causing people to rally to his defense against what they consider unfair and unprecedented attacks.

Now there are disadvantages to this tactic, it’s a drastic step that would send shockwaves to the GOP house and might even embolden the left who might even help enable such candidates under the theory that it would be easier to beat a non-incumbent than a sitting member of congress.

However it is becoming increasingly clear that the GOP congress is populated by cowards without either the courage of their convictions or any convictions to have courage about.  That being the case if we can’t appeal to a sense of honor or courage that is lacking we must by necessity use their own cowardice to our advantage rather than allow the left to monopolize it.

In other words if they are only motivated by fear and self preservation let them be more afraid of us than them.



Malone: [stopping at a post office] Well, here we are.
Ness: What are we doing here?
Malone: Liquor raid.
Ness: [looking at the police station across the street] Here?
Malone: Mr. Ness, everybody knows where the booze is. The problem isn’t finding it, the problem is who wants to cross Capone.
[…Enters Post office and goes to a closed door in the back]

The Untouchables 1987

There are two scenes in the 1987 movie The Untouchables that perfectly illustrates the situation in Washington today

The first is when Officer Malone (Sean Connery) leads Elliot Ness (Kevin Costner) into the post office where Capone’s booze is being distributed from and makes it clear that everything comes down to if he’s willing to go through that door or not.

the key exchange comes at 5:19 in this clip:

Malone: [With his hand on the door] If you walk through this door now, you’re walking into a world of trouble. And there’s no turning back. You understand?
Ness: Yes I do. [Pumps his shotgun]
Malone: Good.

That is pretty much what challenging the deep state means. If you are willing to keep your mouth shut and go though the motions, like say a Jeb Bush might have done if elected, you might be allowed to make minor tweaks to the system as long as the system that allows the folks to feed at the trough can continue.

But the moment you decide to shake things up The deep state fights back as illustrated by this scene where Agent Wallace is murdered.

And your friends tell you to take a few days off

Chief Mike Dorset: It’s always a crime when a young guy goes down in the line Jimmy, I hate to see it happen to someone I know. Sometimes it’s better not to get involved. Jimmy take a few days off, get out of the city, you know what I mean.

That beyond everything else is what the resignation of General Mike Flynn is about as reported by the free beacon first quoting Eli Lake:

“Michael Flynn was one of the Obama administration’s fiercest critics after he was forced out of the Defense Intelligence Agency,”

And then in their own piece proper

A third source who serves as a congressional adviser and was involved in the 2015 fight over the Iran deal told the Free Beacon that the Obama administration feared that Flynn would expose the secret agreements with Iran.

“The Obama administration knew that Flynn was going to release the secret documents around the Iran deal, which would blow up their myth that it was a good deal that rolled back Iran,” the source said. “So in December the Obama NSC started going to work with their favorite reporters, selectively leaking damaging and incomplete information about Flynn.”

“After Trump was inaugurated some of those people stayed in and some began working from the outside, and they cooperated to keep undermining Trump,” the source said, detailing a series of leaks from within the White House in the past weeks targeting Flynn. “Last night’s resignation was their first major win, but unless the Trump people get serious about cleaning house, it won’t be the last.”

Flynn was ready to help drain the swamp but when you start draining a swap the animals who live there tend to bite.

This is what Bill Kristol is saying in this disgraceful tweet.

There is a good living for everyone involved if you just keep your head down and get along to go along. Take a few days off Donnie Boy, get yourself out of town for a bit.

Now there may be more than meets the eye here but the fate of General Flynn is a reminder that the D’Sousa Rule is fully in place as I said at the time:

Did D’Sousa really think that an administration willing to use the IRS against their political enemies who are acting legally would not use the Justice Department go after a political foe who made the single most popular film against Barack Obama in 2012 in the case of an actual violation of law?

Every member of the Trump administration should take this to heart, the left is all in against you as is the media but most important of all a good chunk of the GOP establishment and their government allies would still like you to crash and burn and will have no qualms at all about making common cause with the left to do so.

The Trump administration is fighting the good fight, but they need to watch their back because both foes and supposed friends are looking to stick a knife into it.

After all you didn’t’ think they’d just roll over and die did you?

Gen.Patton: I know I’m a prima donna. I admit it. What I can’t stand about Monty is, he won’t admit it.

Patton 1970

Brett Maverick: Jimson hadn’t been in the game 10 minutes before I when I knew why he was there. He was the real expert making his two brace men look like a pair of amateurs He was there to get his money back and he had already slipped a couple of smooth tricks might past me. But I had him spotted now and he had all the money back he was going to get.

Maverick Relic of Fort TeJon 1957

Casey Stengel: Can’t anyone play this game?

Today will be quite a day at CPAC the annual gathering of true believers in the conservative movement. and a lot of the people there are angry about two things:

The lack of Cannoli due to my absence

Donald Trump speaking on Saturday

Also today Mitt Romney is going to get up before the crowd and give a speech explaining why Donald trump is not a true conservative and why he must be stopped.

Now let me begin this post by saying without equivocation that I believe Ted Cruz is the best choice for the GOP nomination and that questioning if Donald Trump means it when he says he’s conservative is legitimate.

But the idea of Mitt Romney giving a speech about how Donald Trump being a danger to future of the country and to conservatism can have only one reaction …

Are you kidding me?

Is there a single conservative at CPAC who remembers Romney as the governor of Massachusetts? Of Romney willing to see us out on Obamacare, on Gay Marriage,  on Global Warming, on Border security?  Has anyone forgot that it was the Mitt Romney team that tried to suppress the Ron Paul people when he already had the game won?

Yet as I listen to this Mitt Romney speech I see conservative after conservative retweeting and cheering his words.

Mitt Romney says Trump is playing us for suckers.  That is certainly possible and it’s a legitimate question.

But there is absolutely no question the GOP establishment have played us all for suckers for years and worst of all, all of us in the conservative movement know this.

Yeah Trump is an ego driven candidate, yes in many ways Trump is all about himself, yes he thinks he’s smarter than everyone else, but everybody knows this.  It’s obvious he thinks this stuff, he doesn’t try to hide it.

But for God’s sake, isn’t that a perfect description of the GOP Establishment?  Isn’t that a great description of Mitt Romney?

The GOP establishment is ego driven, they are all about themselves, they think they’re smarter than everyone else, the difference is they do their best not to telegraph it.

Romney warning conservatives that Trump is not one of is us like Lucy going to Charlie Brown saying:  “I don’t trust that girl holding the football for you to kick.”

All Mitt Romney has done today is record a commercial for Hillary Clinton to be used if Trump wins the nomination, which by this absolutely positively stupid move he has enabled and if you doubt that ask yourself why do you think the MSM which just a few years ago were attacking Mitt as a heartless soulless out of touch fool who is full of hate for the common people are practically standing to line to compliment him?

An even better question is: Can anyone remember Mitt Romney being this forceful against Barack Obama?

Bottom line Mitt Romney & the GOP are gamblers running a crooked game in town warning us rubes that the newcomer is a crook, not because he might be, but because they don’t want him cutting in on their action.

And if we conservative don’t recognize this then we deserve to continue to be taken for suckers as we have been.


Today is day 1 of CPAC and for the 2nd year straight I’m in Massachusetts rather than Maryland. Hopefully now that I’ve been called back to work I can use DaTipJar to pay down my debts so next year I can afford CPAC.

Today we’ve at $22 of our $61 dollar goal, $39 to go to make our goal and maybe cut into our deficit of $1285 and 21.06 days.

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Missy (The Master): He’s trapped at the heart of the Dalek empire. He’s a prisoner of the creatures who hate him most in the universe. Between us and him is everything the deadliest race in all of history can throw at us. We, on the other hand, have a pointy stick. How do we start?
Clara: We assume we’re going to win.

Doctor Who: The Witches’ Familiar 2015

There are few thing I enjoy more than re-watching the 2004 ALCS series starting with the 9th inning of game 4.

Even twelve years later and with three world series in the bag. The 2004 ALCS is special. It brings a smile to the face and a tear to the eye and it all began with the greatest stolen base in Red Sox History:

and ended with Big Papi knocking it out.

Now for Red Sox fans like myself the great comeback of 2004 is particularly special because it was our first world series win. That first championship is always the greatest.

I’m sure this isn’t unique to Red Sox fans. 1969 was the first championship for the Met and the 1969 Miracle Mets as some might have forgotten came back from behind to take the East from the Chicago Cubs and then swept Atlanta to win their first pennant.

Yes that’s a young Nolan Ryan who was to win his only World Series Ring of his incredible career with those Miracle Mets.

And if you go back even further in 1951 the then NY Giants were 12 1/2 back in August and 4 1/2 games back with ten to play and managed to come back and take the Pennant.

Now All of these teams and comebacks are legendary and every baseball fan knows them. Do you know the reason why?

Because they are exceptions.

Nobody talks about the seasons when the Yankees dominated in the 90’s or the Reds in 1976 or the 1973 Oakland A’s not because they weren’t great teams but because thing happened as expected.

And that brings us to the election results tonight.

As of this writing Massachusetts, Georgia, Virginia and Alabama and Tennessee have all gone for Donald Trump and when CNN reported that GOP donors are getting together to get money together to stop him Jake Tapper just said “Why don’t they wait till after the inauguration?”

At the same time as the GOP Establishment is doing this many of my fellow conservative activists are talking about the same thing stopping Trump or suggesting that he’s in trouble to wit

Now as I’ve said over and Over I’m a Ted Cruz guy. I voted for him today and I urge all voters to vote for Ted as the best candidate to secure the border, stop Obamacare, I’m glad he’s leading in Texas and exit polls look good in Oklahoma which would be one more state than the MSM was projecting and I’d be delighted for him to come back and win the nomination.

But I understand that such a comeback would be in the same class as the 2004 Red Sox , the 1969 Mets and the 1951 Giants and have no intention of pretending otherwise and I hope the Ted Cruz campaign does the same because you can’t get to where you want to go unless you understand where you are.

Now I don’t expect the Establishment GOP to tell the truth but I’m really bothered to see my fellow conservative activists retreat to their safe spaces

Cue south Park


Election Day continues and with 3 hours to go we are still $47 shy of our $61 daily goal.

A journey of a thousand miles starts with a single step so I see no reason why a journey to $61 can’t start with $14.

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Leonard: Okay, fine. Live with cats. Be like my Aunt Nancy. She had dozens of them. And do you know what happened after she died? They ate her.

Sheldon:You don’t have to sell me on cats, Leonard. I’m already a fan.

The Big Bang Theory: The Zazzy Substitution 2010

There has been some fun in watching the GOP establishment in sheer Trump induced panic to the point where they supposedly think that Mitt Romney is going to ride in and play savior.  That insanity has been the bright side to my disappointment that Trump voters don’t know or remember that my man Ted Cruz has been fighting for all the big causes that Trump has been espousing.

However  there is one part about all this nonsense and panic that might not make sense to someone paying attention.  Why is the GOP so dead set against Donald Trump?  After all he is a dealmaker and it’s highly likely that he will make plenty of deals that favor the party big wigs to get the votes in congress that he wants and who says that the big money donors who finance the various candidates will not see a deal or two thrown their way?

What you have to remember is the difference between how an activist sees the GOP and how the party Establishment does.

To an activist the GOP exists as a vehicle to advance a certain set of principles that matter to them as the best thing to the country for the sake of generations to come.

To a member of the establishment the GOP exists as a vehicle to a comfortable job / office in government and/or party, a source of profitable influence in same, an even more comfortable living post government and entré to all of these things for family friends and children.

To the big money donor it’s an investment in his interests to either guarantee a favor or to ensure a hearing.

For the activist it’s what the office can do for their cause, to the establishment it’s what the office can do for you and other members of the club and for the donor that put them all there.

And that’s why the party wants to stop  Trump if they can because they envision a scene much like Tip O’Neill described on page 183 of his autobiography when he and a group of Massachusetts congressmen went to see President Johnson to pitch a friend from Boston in the General Service Administration for the head spot of that agency when it opened up in 1964.

As Tip explains things didn’t go as planned:

When we arrived at the White House, Johnson came in to the room and said, “Boys, I know what you’re here for.  You want this Kennedy man to get the GSA job, this guy who looks down his nose at me like I’m shit.  Well, you can tell him that he’s not going anywhere.  He’s damn lucky to be where he is.  Every time I see that elongated son of a bitch with his PT-109 tie pin, flaunting it in my face, I almost go through the roof.”

“Wait a minute—” somebody broke in.

“No, I will NOT wait a minute,” the president replied.  “No Kennedy man is going to get that job.  I’m giving it to a Johnson man.  Now let’s go in and have a drink.”

When people think of jobs in a president’s administration they think of secretary of state, Attorney General or chief of staff, but the reality is there are thousands of positions that carry prestige, pay well and guarantee a well paying position in the private sector later on that an administration fills not just at the start of their term but all during it.  (another argument for Glenn Reynolds revolving door surtax)

What happens if those positions go not to a party man, but to a Trump man?  What happens when the head of an agency like the GSA doesn’t owe his position to a party or to a donor but owes it to the Donald™ and it time to make a ruling that affects the party or could affect a chance in a big donor’s fortunes?  Even worse for the GOP what happens when Donald Trump remembers who treated him fairly and with respect and who did not?  There are few men in the this history of the world that can hold a candle to Lyndon Baines Johnson in terms of ego and remembering a slight but I suspect Donald Trump is one of them.

I can see that scene from the LBJ years being repeated over and over again as a President Trump remembers who granted him a favor when he needed it (Like Chris Christie) and who did not.

Cue Captain Picard:

I suspect a variant of this conversation is happening right now with a lot of Republican Establishment types being given the choice between joining the establishment “destroy trump at all costs” forces, waiting till after Florida to make up their mind or jumping on the bandwagon before Super Tuesday, although I suspect the language being used by the Trump people is not as diplomatic as the Captain Picard’s

For myself I’m a Cruz man. I urge all voters to support Ted and will keep doing so as long as he’s in this race.

But if I’m ever in a position where my choice is Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton for president, I won’t have to think twice and if nothing else the man who gets my vote will know it was given honest.


It’s Monday and this weekend was the first time since I lost my job and Stacy McCain lost his Twitter rights that we’ve had a setback in our quest for $61 to make a living back here at the blog. Saturday DaTipJar was completely and utterly silent and as of this writing (Sunday 4 PM) DaTipJar is $49 short for the day and remain with a deficit for the year at 21 days and $1335 dollars.

To those who already have kicked in thank you so much. For those who can’t afford it, don’t worry about it but I do ask you to promote the site.

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“The target audience for all this activity was 535 people in Washington,” Treglia says — 100 in the Senate, 435 in the House. “The idea was to create an impression that a mass movement was afoot — that everywhere they looked, in academic institutions, in the business community, in religious groups, in ethnic groups, everywhere, people were talking about reform.” …

Instapundit Jan 26th 2016

Dr. Peter Blood: Nuttall, me lad, there’s just one other little thing. Do you think you could find me a good stout piece of timber? About so thick and so long?
Honesty Nuttall: Yes, I think so.
Dr. Peter Blood: Then do so and lash it to your spine – it needs stiffening. Courage!

Captain Blood 1935

Yesterday I talked about my fear that the only thing standing between us and the loss of the republic is the courage of the GOP senate.

It didn’t take long for my fears to begin to be realized.

Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Chuck Grassley, who said Saturday it “only makes sense” to let the next president pick the justice, wouldn’t rule out holding hearings for Obama’s eventual pick.

“I would wait until the nominee is made before I would make any decisions,” Grassley told reporters in a conference call on Tuesday, according to Radio Iowa. “In other words, take it a step at a time.”

Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who sits on the Judiciary Committee, also sounded skeptical of simply rejecting any nominee at the outset. 

“I think we fall into the trap if we just simply say, sight unseen—we fall into the trap of being obstructionists,” Tillis said on The Tyler Cralle Show.

What’s most interesting the sudden cracks in the wall is the difference between the reality and the propaganda.

The reality is that the Senate Republicans have the absolute power to stop president Obama in his tracks.  No amount of editorializing, speech making or angst on the part of the President, Democrats and the NY & Washington Based media changes this fact.

The only thing these people can do is generate fear, and that’s the plan.

You will see editorial after editorial, story after story, advocate after advocate appearing on cable news channels, in newspaper editorials, on sunday shows, in tiny protests stage-managed for the eyes of the press,  on college campuses, on radio news at the top and bottom of the hour excoriating the GOP about how upset the public will be about them failing to confirm Barack Obama’s Supreme Court Pick and how that backlash is going to doom them.

This despite the fact that the same predictions concerning a government shutdown preceded the GOP taking of the Senate in 2014

and stuff like this (emphasis mine)

In July of last year, popular perceptions of the conservative jurist were evenly divided, with 29% seeing him favorably and 27% unfavorably. Scalia, whom one prominent legal scholar named “the most influential justice of the last quarter-century,” was nonetheless unknown to nearly a third of Americans (32%) and generated no opinion from another 12% in 2015, Scalia’s 29th year on the nation’s top court.

So let me ask the obvious question:

Assuming I’m right about the media meme that’s about to be sold to members of congress, how can said meme be accurate if 44% of the pubic doesn’t even know or care who Justice Scalia was?

and provide the answer:  IT ISN’T.

The left’s media meme and online blitzs that are coming are the equivalent of John Magruder or Nathan Bedford Forrest marching the same group of troops over and over again around a hill to make a small force seem like a mighty host, and like their modern democrat successors using the same tactic, their success in that endeavor was dependent on their foes falling for that ruse and losing their nerve.

Don’t fall for it, and if you want to be afraid of something ask yourself this:  Do you really think that the Tea Party and the NRA will forgive and forget if you give in to the Democrats on this?

I’ll give the last word to Jake Tapper

Antonin Scalia pray for us.


Given where the economy is rather than where the MSM pretends it is to those who have kicked in (particularly subscribers), thanks much.

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As I watched the Democrat Debate last week, or as I should more accurately say flipped from back and forth from the Dem debate and Hogan’s Heroes Reruns because there is only so much socialism and Rachel Maddow a person can take, I found myself fascinated by the predicament that Hillary Clinton finds herself in concerning Senator Sanders.

What’s fascinating about it is that it’s the mirror image of the problem the GOP has and it comes from similar roots.

For decades the left has spent its time rejecting traditional judeo christianity and the values that come with it. The concept of respect for God, a moral order, the value of work and self reliance and have imbued these values into the culture and educational system to the point where any person who does not have every comfort they have dreamed of is considered oppressed and every person who has succeeded is an oppressor.

And while this fits perfectly with the philosophy of a lifetime socialist who honeymoons in the Soviet Union during the cold war and a president that believes that the United States is the primary source of evil in the universe if one has spent a lifetime with a goal of power and wealth and has said, done and chased whatever is popular enough to gain it, let’s call such a person, oh, Hillary Clinton, suddenly finds herself with a record that diametrically opposes all of the things that they have conditioned their supporters to believe.

Thus the Clintons and the DNC who invested their souls into their family rather than rejecting them when given the moral choice decades ago find themselves scrambling in an age of relative morality to paint themselves as acceptable to those they have conditioned to believe in relative ever changing standards, with the full knowledge that the it may not be enough to allow them to keep the power and the wealth it generates.

Oddly enough this is almost the mirror image of what has been going on in the GOP with conservatives.

Because as the Democrats rapidly became an unwelcome place for people of faith and those who honored the traditional Judeo Christian American culture the GOP by default began to pick up such people.

Meanwhile The GOP which once thanks to the vast wealth the Civil war created, had morphed into a party favoring business & elites while losing the favor of the masses as those who fought under the union banner & their children died, suddenly founds themselves transformed by the influx of people of faith and traditional American Culture once again a party of the masses.

The only problem was while they loved getting those votes and the power that being elected gave them, those same GOP elites didn’t love the masses that gave said votes to them.

So began the regular cycle of GOP candidates that every election year promised to govern as conservative traditional Americans but cut and ran from those positions as soon as they were over.

Now given that the choice for voters is one party or the other, the Obama years have given the GOP the default victory in off year elections but as Mark Steyn warned not acting after such a victory is a recipe for disaster for them.

Thus, with their establishment candidates faltering forced to choose between wildcard Donald Trump and 98% conservative Marco Rubio in order to stop 100% conservative Ted Cruz who has made his campaign about actually doing what the GOP keeps claiming it will.

All of this both on the Democrat side and the GOP side comes from the same source, the desire to gain power for personal advancement and disdain for the people who grant them said power.

You would think it wasn’t a question of two different parties, might one. In fact one might even call it a cartel.


The good news is that both my face and web traffic have recovered. January 2016 marks the 4th straight month of recovery and the doldrums of 2014 & early 2015 seem completely behind.

The bad news is DaTipjar has not recovered to 2013 levels yet. With a $62 a day avg goal as of Jan 30th we’re reached where I hoped we’d be January 7th, just over 25%.

Given where the economy is rather than where the MSM pretends it is and that it is January both are understandable and to those who have kicked in (particularly subscribers), thanks much.

If however you have not & are both able and inclined I’d really appreciate it if you’d help us either close January strong or start February stronger by hitting DaTipJar.

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As of this moment the only think we know for sure about Iowa is the fact that hotel room prices are about to drop like a rock.

As I will be at work with no access to a radio or the net my first knowledge of the results in Iowa will, unless I take my laptop with me as I have no smartphone, either at 7 AM or what people with smartphones tell me during breaks.

It’s my opinion that Ted Cruz will put it out, that the turnout thanks to the storm will not grow as much and his ground game will make the difference. It’s also my opinion that not enough people will choose to vote strategically (although it’s the pragmatic thing to do) to turn the Donald Trump events into victory.

It’s also my opinion that Sanders wins simply because to the young Sanders voter the caucus itself is like a Trump event & they’ll so because it’s an event, plus there is enough fear in Hillary voters to make the difference.

But even if I’m wrong and it’s Trump Cruz vs Cruz Trump what’s next? Since I’m obliged to write thing before I have any clue what has actually happened here is what I think:

If TED CRUZ wins by a lot:

An unlikely scenario, but if it happens it will make a huge difference in NH guaranteeing him top 3. This will require cause a bloodbath in NH as the big three establishment candidates plus Rubio fight for their lives. Jeb Bush may decide to back out of NH all together and decide to go all in for SC in order to retain the donor class. But it also becomes last stand for Kasich and Christie, particularly if Rubio finishes a strong 3rd.

It also means that Ted Cruz’s already formidable ground & money advantage increases greatly

As far as the Establishment goes a big Ted Cruz win means decision time. It’s all in to stop him, but to who, Trump, Rubio or Bush? If the Cruz win comes with a Trump collapse then suddenly the the old rules apply again and Bush rises from the grave as Stacy McCain fears.

If TED CRUZ wins by a little (my best guess):

Then all the conventional wisdom that the pundits have talked about continues, Trump in this case likely does well enough to ensure a NH win (unless he collapses then Rubio become the Stop Ted Establishment fan.

All the Ted Cruz wins by a lot scenario’s above apply to a lesser degree including the panic. It also gives the GOP establishment a little time to put off their decision as to what to do.

If Trump comes a close second expect him to be like the US Army after Kasserine, someone who learns a lot from an initial defeat. He will go after Cruz like there is no tomorrow.

If Donald Trump wins by a little

Then NH is his, Cruz might settle to 3rd or 4th there and it sets him up well for continued success. In one respect a close win is best for Trump as it confers the victory he needs with the lessons that a close call can teach.

Cruz will be pilloried by the MSM for losing in this case in an attempt to write him off (it will fail) and it might tempt some campaigns that should end to continue at least to NH or SC) It will also give new hope to Christie and Carson and be a boon to Rubio. If somehow Rubio finishes 2nd to Trump (very unlikely) then he will become the defacto GOP Trump alternative

If Donald Trump wins by a lot

The whole game is blown up. NH is his, Nevada is likely his and the Bush SC plan is in deep trouble. Ted Cruz holds on in the south & will need to rally there. NH becomes a fight for 2nd place but the GOP establishment might just decide that they had better hit the Trump Bandwagon NOW rather than later, unless Rubio comes 2nd & then they might decide to go that way.

It’s possible that this helps Bush the most since with Cruz disposed of he has the biggest donor network to actually compete.

This is the only Scenario where I see either Huckabee or Santorum getting to NH

Final thought: If any candidate other than Trump, Cruz or Rubio finish in the top 3 THAT becomes the subhead in the GOP no matter what the result. If it’s an establishment guy NH goes completely insane.

Note: If suggestions that Carson is thinking of dropping that have just been reported, all bets are off.


If Bernie Sanders wins by a lot:
The Trump explosion squared. DNC panic and the Biden & Bloomberg stuff goes into overdrive. Both the “stop Bernie” and the “Replace Hillary NOW!” plans go into full swing and the Clintons find themselves fighting for their political lives. At this point the black community will have to choose a side. The Clintons will tell them to name their price and pay it, but they might just see what the Replace Hillary Now and Bernie camps might offer for their support.

It’s possible that the Obama administration and the Clinton’s go into mutually assured destruction mode. That all depends on what threats get made by the Clinton’s or the Administration in an attempt to either force them to back her or pressure her to leave. MSN in full panic mode.

If Bernie Sanders wins by a little (my best guess)

The slow Clinton bleed continues and all the tough decisions that a big Bernie win would force are delayed. Again Clinton appeals to the minority community to be her firewall post NH but minor defections continue. The DNC decides to sweat it out for NH in the hopes that Hillary can recover post NH. The whispers of indictment continue but aren’t enough to go anywhere yet. It’s all wait and see.

If Hillary wins by a little.

Most of the DNC panic dissipates, suddenly Biden & Bloomberg are silent. Nothing from Justice but the infighting in the FBI over the rule of law continues but is suppressed by Obama. In many ways this is the optimum result for the left because it solves problems without forcing their hand totally. The one danger for the DNC is if there is any sign of a “dirty tricks”, then the Democrat activist revolt will make Chicago 1968 look like a Victorian Picnic.

If Hillary wins by a lot:

It’s all over, no indictments, Justice covers for her and the FBI is caught between outrage and resignation. The press goes all in to cover for her and turns all it’s attention to destroying Trump or Cruz.

Final thought. The MSM goal is to advance whatever scenario helps elect Hillary to the White House and destroys first Ted Cruz than the GOP. If you keep that in mind in the coverage of Iowa over the next 24 hours, then you will not be surprised.

(Fyi the GOP goal is to destroy Ted Cruz so in that half of the coverage they and the MSM will be working together.

At Politico, Shane Goldmatcher writes that there is a new target in tomorrow night’s debate:

Hollow or not, Donald Trump’s threat to boycott the final GOP forum before Iowa votes has complicated Ted Cruz’s game plan, forcing the Texan to prepare for two different debates — one in which he tangles directly with the front-runner and another that sets up the senator as the largest target on stage.

Given recent speeches by leading establishment GOP leaders (and an outlier poll that suggest Jeb’s all out assault on Marco Rubio might be pulling dividends in NH).

This sets up a chance for an all out assaults on Ted Cruz by the GOP to the benefit of Donald Trump which given their hatred of Cruz makes a lot of sense.

Since the party has designed its early primary structure/rues to favor an early leader in the belief that said leader would be a Jeb Bush or if you’re a really radical member of the GOP establishment John Kasich they recognize that if Donald Trump early lead is the polls is correct he’s going to be hard to stop, so the GOP has pragmatically decided they’d might as well get in line now.

Furthermore win or lose Trump has the dynamic that Mike Bloomberg had in NY. A lot of left leaning activists etc were VERY careful going up against him as mayor because they knew eventually he would be out of office and they would be coming hat in hand for money. A lot of people in the party know they will be wanting some of that Trump money later and don’t want to do anything that will cut them off from that source. (In fact we see this dynamic in the “please show up” BS coming from Fox).

And of course as I said the day after Mr. Trump announced, if you’re a GOP office holder and potential candidate do you really want to swing at a counterpuncher with a billion dollars and a long memory?

One might think that Trump’s debate move is strategic (it is). One might think it’s a long term mistake (it also is) but one can’t deny that the one thing he has done is read the GOP establishment like a book and used both the “rules” and their nature to his advantage, forcing the GOP to go along.

However the party is forgetting the price on the other side of this choice but that’s a later post.

You would think that as a Ted Cruz fan I would be touting his victory in the Metropolitan Republican Club straw poll in NYC that has amused Erick Erickson so much:

This is hilarious. The Metropolitan Republican Club has been around since 1902. It’s a pretty big deal up there, with virtually very Republican Presidential nominee since 1930 using the club’s offices as its NYC headquarters

To be sure it’s got to be a morale boost for Cruz and a slight embarrassment for Trump but a 33% for 32% win is pretty close and depending on where the Democrat race is at the time I don’t know how significant a sign this is at this time.

For my money if you want the real story of the Metropolitan Straw pol it’s this:

Jeb Bush 1% 6th place


Now I know we are living in times where people live in the now but I’m a guy who loves history and if back in May anyone told you that Jeb Bush couldn’t do better than 1% in the Metropolitan Republican Club straw pol you would have been called crazy.

A lot of this can be put down to Donald Trump. Without Trump the MSM would have been pushing Jeb Bush from day one and the also rans like Lindsey Graham whose only purpose in a race is to do the attacking that the person they are planning to endorse in the end doesn’t want to directly, thanks to the Donald a lot of that MSM strength was diverted to trying to bring him down.

I don’t doubt that Ted Cruz who has run a flawless campaign would have, in a different situation, would have adapted (after all I doubt he went in planning on Hurricane Donald hitting the establishment GOP) but the kneecapping of the GOP establishment in this cycle has been a Godsend to conservative voters all over the country.

And Jeb Bush represents that establishment.

That Bush hasn’t already pulled out and the Establishment hasn’t gone all in for either Christie or Kasich to try to stop Trump tells me two things.

1. the GOP establishment has resigned itself to Donald Trump and will attempt to co-op him

2. Rush Limbaugh is right, the GOP Establishment hates Donald Trump but fears Ted Cruz

Exit question, Is this election cycle a one off for the anti-establishment forces or is the establishment beast finally slain?


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