There are plenty of reasons why I think Donald Trump, given the field we had,  was the wrong choice for GOP nominee, his tendency for mendacity, uncertainty on his core principles, his previous recent association with liberalism and his embrace of cultural liberalism to name a few.

There are quite a few people, including many I respect very much, who will not vote for Trump because of these and other objections and I completely respect their decision.

There are also several reasons why he is a good choice, his willingness to hit issues other duck, his ability to bypass the MSM, his ability to fight back when others will not and his intimate familiarity with the crony system used by government which will allow his to use/manipulate it to get things done.

There are a lot of people, including many I respect very much, who are completely committed to Trump for these reasons, some right from the start, and I completely respect their decision too.

 

What I don’t respect, condone, or agree with are the attempts to take the nomination from him.

Until the moment Mr. Trump secured the required committed delegates to clinch the nomination, not unbound ones that have said they will support him, but actual bound delegates as understood by the voters, I had no problem with candidates and others attempting to within the rules keep Mr. Trump from getting the nomination on the first ballot.  Those were the rules from day one and as long as we were playing within those rules that’s fine.

But the moment you try to do this after he has clinched you are overturning the will of your primary voters who turned out in record numbers in a primary season that drew more attention than any I can remember in my lifetime.

 

Do I wish my man Ted Cruz was nominated, you bet I do!  Do I think he would have beaten Hillary Clinton like a Pinata, without a question!  Do I think the left was terrified of him?  Absolutely!

But that doesn’t matter, the choice belonged to the votes and those voters, for good or ill, for right or wrong, choose to vote for Donald Trump over Ted Cruz and the other 15 choices available.

Either we respect the voters or we don’t and if you don’t then you don’t belong in the political process and you have no business asking me for my vote if you don’t respect me when I cast it.

Again if you want to stay home, stay home, if you want to go 3rd or 4th party, that’s up to you.

But you have no business taking away Mr. Trump’s hard earned victory nor the victory of all the voters who backed him.

You lost an election, grow up.


I’d like to think we do good work here If you’d like to help us keep up the pace please consider hitting DaTipJar




Olimometer 2.52

Please consider Subscribing. If less than 1/3 of 1% of our readers subscribed at $10 a month we’d have the 114.5 subscribers needed to our annual goal all year without solicitation.

Plus of course all subscribers get my weekly podcast emailed directly to you before it goes up anywhere else.


Choose a Subscription level



One of the Favorite phrases of Tip O’Neill was “I’ve always known how to count.” indicating that he had a clear idea of if a bill had the votes to pass or no or if a candidate had a path to win an election.

That keeps coming to mind as we repeatedly hear that the winner take all states spell Doom for the Trump candidacy.

Now as a Ted Cruz supporter who proudly cast his vote for him and continues to urge others to do so I have hopes that some of the closed primaries coming up in the next week Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine for example and have written on the subject but I also know that there are quite a few open primaries coming up as well.

To wit:

March 8th Mississippi poll Trump plus 24 proportional
March 15th Illinois poll Trump plus 15.5 Winner Take all
March 15th Missouri poll Trump plus 12 (old) Winner Take all
March 15th North Carolina poll Trump plus 10.3 Open
March 15th Ohio poll Trump plus 5 Winner take all
April 5th Wisconsin poll Trump plus 10 Winner take all
May 10th West Virginia poll Trump plus 20 Direct Election
June 7th Montana poll Cruz +6 (old) plus 15.5 Winner take all
June 7th New Jersey poll Trump plus 18 Winner Take all

There are also two states with open primaries that there are no polling for
April 26th Rhode Island Proportional
May 3rd Indiana poll Winner take all

Trump is leading 8 in states with a total of 431 delegates
Cruz is leading in one state with 27 delegates
two states with no polling are worth 76 Delegates

And frankly there are in the closed primaries Trump is polling pretty good too. There are six closed primary states with 385 delegates where trump is polling at LEAST +10.

Right now Trump has 319, Cruz 226 and Rubio 110 with 1237 delegates to win.

Trump needs 918 more delegates, The 14 states I’ve mentioned are worth 816 delegates. If he only manages half of those delegates in these states where he has the advantage he is down to 510 delegates.

And that’s not even counting the 25 more states that we haven’t talked with 900+ delegates.

No matter how you slice it the odds are with Donald Trump, and no matter how you slice it the only shot to stop him, is the junior senator from Texas, not the senator from Florida.

That’s why Lindsey Graham is talking alliances with Ted Cruz It doesn’t matter what your opinion on Donald Trump is, it doesn’t matter if you think he’s the second coming of Reagan or Obama the Math is the Math and it has to be faced, that is if you’re interested in reality.

As I’ve written a lot lately the only way for a candidate to overtake Donald Trump is to look at things realistically and plan accordingly. So you don’t hear a lot of analysis here that’s tinted with Rose Colored glasses.

I understand that my man is behind and that he has to not only defeat Donald Trump who has proved to be a brilliant campaigner who continues to learn his lessons well but has to defeat the Establishment wing of the party that despite claiming to oppose Trump, opposes conservatism more and would rather risk a Trump victory that have a proven conservative at the top of the ticket. That’s just the way it is.

The only was to do this is to evaluate the situation and look for areas of opportunity and as I look at the calendar I do see one stat and fact that gives me and my fellow Ted Cruz fans some reason for optimism.

With the exception of his home state of Texas, the three states Ted Cruz has won are Iowa, Oklahoma and Alaska.

Do you know the two things what all those states have in common?

1. In all of those states Trump was polling ahead yet Cruz won

Iowa Poll: Trump +4.7, Result: Cruz +3.3
Alaska Poll Trump +4 Result Cruz +2.9
Oklahoma Poll: Trump 11.4 Result: Cruz +6.1

2. In all those states the primary is closed to non-republicans.

In fact did you know that with only one exception Every single state that Donald Trump has won allows people who aren’t republicans vote to decide who the party nominates.

To be sure the exception to this rule (Nevada) went for Trump in a big way
(Nevada Polls: Trump +17, Result Trump +22) but this would not seem to be a coincidence.

And it turns out that of the next 9 contests Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine (March 5th) Puerto Rico (March 6th), Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi (March 8th), all but Puerto Rico & Mississippi are closed primaries.

And furthermore with the exception of Kentucky (Trump +13) and Michigan (Trump +19.4) there is no recent polling showing what the situation is.

Now all of these states are proportional so if Ted Cruz manages to win several of these states like Kansas, Louisiana and Idaho it’s not likely that it will narrow the gap a lot but if he can secure at least three of them that will help his donors and supporters keep their nerve and with 18 more closed primaries and caucus over the next 4 months coming, that could make all the difference.

But the first step is Senator Cruz doing well in those seven closed states in the next week.

One has to play the game with the cars you have, as far as I can see, these are the best cards in Ted Cruz’s deck.

Yesterday we talked about how for the GOP their real fear is that key patronage positions leading to increased power would go to people whose primary loyalty was to Trump and not to party.

That is the reason why they are potentially willing to elect a woman who was willing to leave Americans in trouble to die rather than risk a Trump presidency.

But here on Election day, as I celebrate the end of robo calls that have been never-ending It occurs to me that if he wants, Mr. Trump has the ability to craft a far more effective revenge on the GOP than a mere 3rd party run.

Here in Massachusetts I’ve gotten robo calls for presidential candidates (I say vote Cruz) and state rep candidates (I say vote Tran) but the greatest number of calls I’ve received have been for candidates for the GOP state committee. (I say vote Frank Ardinger & ignore the Gov’s ticket)

You might recall that two years ago it was the attempt to silence activists on the committee and some deceptive arguments that sparked outrage and led to my own departure from the GOP.

You might also recall that just last week I wrote about Charlie Baker running his own slate of State Committee people who by an odd coincidence are targeting the conservative activists who were treated so poorly last time.

Now ask yourself this. What if Donald Trump decides to get involved in these races on the state level?

Picture for example if a Donald Trump, to use Massachusetts as an example, angry about how he’s treated decides next time around to run his OWN slate of GOP state committee people?

Picture Trump holding rallies in Worcester and drawing 5000, 10000 or 20000 and urging them to go to the pols and vote for a Trump slate. Picture him standing next to a candidate and giving him the Trump imprimatur.

Then picture if even a fraction of those people he draws turning up for what is normally a sleepy election with turnout so low the primary job of the police at the polling stations is to keep the elderly poll workers awake. Remember the height different between Governor Baker and Dean Tran at his rally. Well when it comes to drawing voters in an election Trump dwarfs Governor Baker in the same way.

Suddenly you don’t have a GOP state committee that looks like the establishment or like Charlie Baker, Suddenly you have a GOP state committee that looks like Donald Trump.

Now imagine that picture repeated state by state nationwide. Having nightmares yet GOP?

I can see the naysayers now: “Surely you jest, not only would that be very expensive but very time-consuming and what about the conservative activist and the Rand Paul activists etc they won’t go along with this?”

To that I say, Trump has the money, he has the voters, an he’s the type of guy who doesn’t forget slights so he’ll be highly motivated. It will keep his name in the headlines which he will love, and as for the activists, given how they’ve been treated by the party leaders I suspect they will not need a lot of persuasion to join a Trump attempt to “throw the rascals out”…oh and don’t call me Shirley.

And that’s just talking state Committees, it could get much worse for the party.

As I mentioned a bit back Ted Cruz did the establishment a big favor last time around by not endorsing in primaries involving incumbents. His treatment by the party will determine if that happens next time around.


In the last election cycle Ted Cruz did not challenge any sitting GOP incumbent, he didn’t endorse Matt Bevin when he was running against Mitch McConnell nor did aid John Cornyn’s worthy challenger Dwayne Stovall. In the current election cycle, frankly Senator Cruz is a tad busy…

…but what about next one?

Now picture Donald Trump in this scenario instead of Ted Cruz. Picture Trump holding huge rallies and bringing his turnout machine to the various states for primary opponents of GOP incumbents. Cripes he might even get Cruz to go along with him on this.

And picture the wall to wall coverage the MSM will give all these efforts, you’re talking more free media than the GOP can buy.

How fast with GOP incumbents fearful of such a scenario decide to line up behind Trump?

Now as I’ve said over and over. I’m a Ted Cruz man. I’ll be voting for him today and I URGE any person reading, particularly Trump people, to get behind Ted who is the conservative who has actually fought and paid the price to trying to do all of the things Donald Trump is now promising to get done. Along the same lineYesterday Pastor Kelly warned of the spiritual price of “win at any cost”.

But if the people don’t take my advice or the Pastor’s and go with Trump, then we must, as a republic respect their choice. I submit and suggest to the GOP establishment that trying to silence the voice of the voters, even if they choose the “wrong” candidate is not only the wrong thing to do, it’s the Dumb thing to do an it will have consequences far worse and longer lasting than they establishment fools realize.

GOP don’t say you haven’t been warned.

*******************************

It’s Election Day so by the end of the day we wipe away speculation and replace it with hard facts and numbers.

Likewise we start a new day with a new $61 goal and the hope of dropping our current deficit for the year below $1289 & 21.1 days. We’re already $2 on our way.

To those who helped us make our goal yesterday Thank you so much.

To those both able and inclined to do so today you can help us close that gap by hitting DaTipJar.




Olimometer 2.52

Please consider Subscribing. We are currently 116.3 subscribers at $10 a month to make our goal every day without further solicitation but the numbers are even more interesting:

If less than 1/3 of 1% of our February readers this month subscribed at $10 a month we’d have the 114.5 subscribers needed to our annual goal all year without solicitation.

If less than 2/3 of 1% did, I’d be completely out of debt and able to attend CPAC

If a full 1% of our February readers subscribed at $10 a month I could afford to travel across the country covering the presidential race this year in person for a full month.

Plus of course all subscribers get my weekly podcast emailed directly to you before it goes up anywhere else.


Choose a Subscription level



And it is a common saying that it is best first to catch the stag, and afterwards, when he has been caught, to skin him.

Henry De Bracton

I find myself constantly amazed at the insistence of partisans of Marco Rubio that not winning any primaries or caucuses is the path to the GOP nomination.

While it inspired a parody song out of me based on “Show Me” from the musical “My Fair Lady”  I think that Bill James in his 1985 Historical Baseball Abstract tells a story whose 100th anniversary this year illustrates the point better than my musical interlude.

In 1916 Hughie Jennings manager of the Detroit Tigers got a letter from a young man who claimed that he could strike out the Ty Cobb on three pitches anytime and anywhere.

Cobb by this time was the best hitter in Baseball.  By 1916 his twelfth season had already led the league in batting (including two seasons hitting over .400) nine times.  He lead the league in hits six times, on base percentage 5 times, stolen bases, RBI’s &runs 4  times, triples & doubles twice and Home Runs once including winning the Triple crown in 1909.

Despite this Jennings decided to risk the 1.80 train fare for the kid to come to Detroit to see what he had and when the 6′ 4″ kid turned up and was ready Cobb came to the plate.  I’ll Let Mr. James pick up the narrative from here:

Cobb hit his first pitch against the right field wall.  his second pitch went over the right field wall.  The third pitch went over the center field wall.  Cobb ws thinking they ought to keep this guy around to help him get into a groove.

“Well” said Jennings.  “What do you have to say?”

the Pitcher stared in hard at the batter’s box.  “You know, ” he said , “I don’t believe that’s Ty Cobb in there.”

Alas for the young man wishful thinking and confident talk was not enough to convince Jennings to grant the kid a roster spot.

That’s Marco Rubio all over.

Marco Rubio is a good young pol who has, except on the issue of illegal immigration, done well so far.  I do not doubt for a moment that he has an even brighter future ahead of him.

But when he boasts of his performance in the 2016 primary season, where despite many high profile endorsement he has failed to win a single race, he sounds like the young kid in this story boasting of his skill while throwing fat Pitches to Ty Cobb without getting a single one by him.

It makes him and his supporters look like fools, that’s bad, but it also means he takes us for fools as well.

That’s worse.

Your first job is to get re-elected.

Sam Rayburn

If you looked at the Mainstream media Thursday evening and Friday morning there was a single theme. The Conservative caucus in the house was doomed, they were stuck with John Boehner and that if they force an election for speaker through a motion to “vacate the chair” they will create a speaker who will destroy conservatives etc etc etc

Such was the conventional wisdom brought to you by the same people for whom the conventional wisdom at 8 AM Thursday was “Kevin McCarthy will be the next speaker of the house.”

This is exactly wrong.  The time for the GOP conservative caucus to strike is NOW, the time to make a motion to vacate the chair is NOW and the time to force the feckless GOP members to make a decision between the base and the establishment is NOW!

However everyone is ignoring a card, that the Conservatives / Tea People have, a card, a wild card, a card that they likely will never have  in play again.

They have Donald Trump.on the GOP primary ballot.

You see in a normal year, the Tea Party might manage to bring  a primary challenge to a sitting congressman and unless the congressman is very new or very weak that threat might or in just the right district it will only be an annoyance because their name recognition will be enough to carry them through against any unknown challenger.

 

But not in the year of Trump!

In the year of Trump a whole new set of voters will be going to the polls on primary, voters who are not loyal to the GOP establishment, a set of voters who look at the establishment that attacks with scorn, a set of voters who are ready to follow Trump..and people who pledge their support to him.

What happens if in such an environment a GOP establishment candidate gets a primary challenger runs as a Pro-Trump Candidate?

Suddenly:  You have an opponent that has instant credibility with that set of new voters.

Suddenly:  You have an opponent that is newsworthy to not only local media but national media.

Suddenly:  All those checks that Trump can’t take from donors for political reasons have a professed Pro-Trump destination that can accept them, checks that can be used to finance a pro-Trump rally in that district

Suddenly:  You have an opponent who would share a stage with Trump and might even get a chance to speak to a huge crowd.

and most frightening of all to a member of the GOP establishment in the house

Suddenly:   You have a credible well financed challenger ready to unseat you.

I suspect such a candidate would do anything to avoid such a situation, even support the freedom caucus candidate for speaker.
Now there are of course risks,  particularly if Trump suddenly collapses but the media and the establishment has been predicting Trump’s collapse for the last three months and it hasn’t happened yet and it’s certainly not going to happen before a GOP leadership vote.

And of course given Mr. Trump’s legendary humility there is absolutely no chance that he would want to promote congressional candidates who are specifically promoting and supporting him for president is there?

If the freedom caucus wants to move members of the GOP establishment this is the scenario that they should put in front of every member preparing to vote with Democrats to stop them.

****************************************************************************

The only pay I get for this work comes from you. My goal for 2015 is $22,000.

Given that fact and the discovery that the repairs needed for my car that failed inspection will run between $500-$1000 I would I ask you to please consider hitting DaTipJar.




Olimometer 2.52

That gets all the bills paid. Consider Subscribing 100 Subscribers at $20 a month will get the job done and then some.


Choose a Subscription level



Additionally our subscribers get our podcast emailed directly to them before it show up anywhere else.

I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

Meglos: Well, gentlemen, shall we all descend together into the earth for another thousand years or shall we resume our original arrangements?
Grugger: Well, I’m prepared to forget that little incident.
Meglos: Oh, I hope not.
Brotadac: We’ll remember.

Doctor Who Meglos 1980

God, the Father of mercies, through the death and resurrection of his Son has reconciled the world to himself and sent the Holy Spirit among us for the forgiveness of sins; through the ministry of the Church may God give you pardon and peace, and I absolve you from your sins in the name of the Father, and of the Son, + and of the Holy Spirit.

The words of absolution at the end of confession

There is a new congressional Committee being formed concerning Planned Parenthood and at Red State they have an objection to a specific potential member:

House insiders have indicated to RedState that Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-NC) is angling hard to be on the committee. The reasons for Ellmers’ desire to be on the committee are obvious: Ellmers publicly betrayed the pro-life movement during the embarrassing debacle over the 20-week abortion ban – a bill which enjoyed broad, bipartisan support but which failed due to the political cowardice of Ellmers and others. Ellmers already knows that due to this and a number of other high profile votes, she is likely to face a stiff primary challenge as one of the most high profile faces of Republican Failure Theater.

This is something  that due to Rep Ellmers past friendship to this site I reluctantly wrote about here

Full disclosure, I’ve interviewed Rene Ellmers, she was on my radio show and has been a friend to this site. Furthermore I’ve given her the benefit of the doubt in the past when there were questions about some of her positions in the past.

But I’m not a republican and I’m Catholic before I’m conservative and abortion is a sine non qua at this site.

The Red State piece make the following argument against Rep Ellmers

Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-NC) 60% already had a chance to do something for the pro-life movement, on a bill that’s much more popular than defunding Planned Parenthood, and she blinked. She does not have legitimate interest in defunding Planned Parenthood or taking any actual substantive action against them. What she wants is television commercial material during her upcoming primary campaign.

However I submit and suggest that Rep. Ellmers situation is the very reason why she might be a more than acceptable choice for this committee.

Given her vulnerability and the fact we are already seeing ads like this drawing tens of thousands of hits:

It would seem to me that Rep Ellmers would have a powerful incentive to be a productive and effective member of this committee.

Red State fears that her presence would only result in phony grandstanding

In other words, allowing Ellmers to participate will to invite another Chaffetz into this hearing – someone who has no interest in using the hearings to actually do or learn anything but rather only to grandstand.

This is not an illegitimate point and if it was 1920, or 1950 or even 1990 there is every chance that this could be the case.

However this is 2015, a member of congress can’t break wind without somebody getting it on cellphone video. If Rep Ellmers attempted to play this kind of game during the hearings the attack ads would likely be on the net before she had a chance to finish yielding her time back to the chair.

If this was the first last and only chance to defend planned parenthood then I could see the point in not taking any chances.

But given the presidential election year our Democrat friends from the lowest minority house members to the White House will have every incentive to fight to the death for every one of those donation dollars that Planned Parenthood provides so while this committee will be important the final nail in the coffin for these baby killers is likely to come in the next congress not this one.

Now I also understand the argument concerning getting a scalp and the example it gives to others but also consider that I’d rather convince a sitting member to see the error of their establishment ways than have to go though the expense of attempting of trying to oust them in a primary.

And it would undercut leadership arguments to members that rather than supporting the Tea Party they have no choice but to cling to leadership for survival.

Of course given that leadership is going to decide who makes this committee if they decide my argument if valid they might just choose to exclude her for the very reasons I gave.

Either way it won’t be boring to watch.

Michael Corleone: Tom, wait a minute. I’m talking about a cop that’s mixed up in drugs. I’m talking about a – a – a dishonest cop – a crooked cop who got mixed up in the rackets and got what was coming to him. That’s a terrific story. And we have newspaper people on the payroll, don’t we, Tom? [Tom nodsAnd they might like a story like that.

Tom Hagen: They might, they just might.

Godfather III 1972

I’ve written about Donald Trump’s relationship with the media.  I’ve talked about how this controversy helps him, why the media is delighted to play it up and why Trump’s ability to do this to the GOP is the GOP establishment’s  own fault.

that the media and the left haven’t figured out yet concerning Donald Trump’s rant connecting Illegal aliens is that if he chooses to press the issue it’s going to be the MSM and the left that are going to lose the fight for two reasons.

First because of his status as a media icon.

Consider the MSM gatekeepers decide which stories become national news. It is the media that decided Trayvon Martin death was a national story that deserved national reflection. It was also the media that decided that the murder of Jessie Dirkhising a 13 year old boy who was bound, drugged, gagged and brutally sodomized by a pair of gay men was not newsworthy enough to be covered nationally.
It was the media who decided that the violent multi hour long rapes and murders of Christopher Newsom and Channon Christian by a group of five black carjackers was not worth headlines, but the death of Michael Brown after he robbed & assaulted a storeowner was worth wall to wall coverage.

But Donald Trump IS news so when the MSM decided that the murder Kathryn Steine wasn’t newsworthy he had other plans: MADE it so

La Times: Donald Trump again lambastes border security after a California woman is slain

Mediaite: Donald Trump Unleashes Tweetstorm After Woman Killed by Illegal Immigrant

NY Daily News: San Francisco murder is proof of ‘unsafe border’ with Mexico, says Donald Trump
he has the advantage of the math.

NBC News: Donald Trump: Kathryn Steinle Death on Pier 14 Shows Need for Border Wall

The Guardian: Donald Trump links shooting death in San Francisco with border control

Time Magazine: Trump Says San Francisco Shooting Proves Him Right on Immigration

And these are just MSM sources, conservative bloggers like me are all over this story.

The MSM didn’t like covering this story, they didn’t care for Trump bypassing them, but it’s even worse than they realize because of basic statistics.

Consider the following FBI stats for 2013:

In 2013 with a population of 316 Million people you had 1.163 MILLION violent crimes every year. That works out to 367 violent crimes per 100K people, murders/non negligent manslaughters (4.5 per 100K) rapes (Which apparently has two statistical definitions for the FBI) at between 79-108k (25.2 or 34.4 per 100K) aggravated assaults at 724K (229 per 100k).

So let’s apply those rates per 100,000 to the 10-30 million illegal aliens here and give them the presumption that they commit these crimes at the same rate as the national avg. That comes, over the course of a year, to between 37,600 – 112,800 violent crimes annually including between 450 to 1350 murders, 2520 to 10,320 rapes & 22,910 to 68,730 aggravated assaults.

That means that if Donald Trump wants to he can find between 1-3 Murders 6-28 rapes and 188 aggravated assaults EVERY SINGLE DAY to give national attention to.

“But DaTechGuy”, you say, “The MSM wasn’t reporting on those stories in the first place. Where is Trump going to get these stories without the stories?”

I see what you mean, after all you’d need to hire a staff of 100 or so to monitor the local news markets in all 50 states to find these stories. Even at $10 an hour you’re talking $168,000 a week 4.3 Million bucks to do it from today till the end of the year.

And what candidate can dedicate that kind of money for such a project? You’d have to be some kind of guy with money to burn or something…oh wait.

What do you think would happen if Trump started such a project, documenting violent crimes involving illegal immigrants and every single time he spoke before a crowd brought up a new name who had murdered or raped since the previous day?

Now the media could rightly point to the statistics, they’d bring on experts to argue that given the number of people in the country this not an epidemic of crime.

Unfortunately for the media they have so conditioned the public that they “serve” that the kind of argument that would be effective doesn’t draw eyeballs. In contrast even with a public willing to hear it the picture of a young woman robbed of the rest of her life, an old retired person who will never be seen by his grandchildren or a youth cut down by gang violence will “Trump” that every time.

In other words if he chooses to Donald Trump can use the same tactics the media used to create the illusion of an epidemic of blacks killed by police to make his point over and over again until the populace in general believe that they are in danger.

And once the low info voter decides they are in danger and that the MSM deliberately has been keeping that danger from them, their entire ability to spin them becomes threatened.

And what will the MSM do then?

Update:  Powerline informs us that my willingness to attribute the same crime rate to illegal immigrants was short sighted:

Data on convictions for federal offenses are available at the U.S. Sentencing Commission’sweb site. Senate committee staff have analyzed those data, and found that “38 percent of federal convictions in FY 2013 were of illegal immigrants, and nearly 43 percent were legal or illegal immigrants.” That is more than ten times the number that would be expected if illegal immigrants were, on the average, as law-abiding as the rest of us. This is a more detailed breakdown:

Illegal immigrant convictions in FY13 represented:

* 18 percent of drug trafficking convictions
* 25 percent of kidnapping/hostage taking convictions
* 56 percent of drug possession convictions
* 15 percent of money laundering convictions
* 20 percent of national security convictions
* 7 percent of murder convictions

So illegals are overrepresented with regard to these crimes by anywhere from two to 17 times.

I suspect Trump is going to ride this for a very long time.


If you like what you see and want to help support me & my magnificent seven please consider helping us make our annual goal.

My goal for 2015 is Twenty Two grand which will give me a nominal living doing this.

Olimometer 2.52

That gets all the bills paid. (including my writers like Fausta)  If I can get to Forty Thousand I can afford to travel outside of New England and/or hire me a blogger to help me get it done.

Consider Subscribing 100 Subscribers at $20 a month will get the job done.

 

Our June Premium for tip jar hitters of $50 or more is Elizabeth The Anchoress Scalia Strange Gods: Unmasking the Idols in Everyday Life

Subscribe at $50 or more in and receive each monthly premium shipped the date of your payment.

All Tip Jar hits of $10 or more will get a copy of Jeff Trapani’s excellent E-Book Victor the Monster Frankenstein.

The second in a series you can read about the Fee Booster aka the Resume Enhancer here.

So now we continue:

How to spot different types of candidates from quite a long way away

 

#2  The Stalking Horse aka The Attack Dog

Distinguishing Characteristics 

1.  An active high profile political career

2.  Positions nearly indistinguishable from a particular major candidates

3.  The Respect of the Media class

4.  An aggressive and provocative speaking style

The Stalking Horse / The Attack Dog is a common type of political animal whose natural habitat is deep in the political system.  Such a candidate is usually in a high-profile position, a congressman, a senator, a former official either from a very important state or from a long serving member of a lesser state.    The Stalking Horse / The Attack Dog has existing national profile and in different circumstance might be considered a credible upper candidate.  He has considerable clout either in his state or in his particular field and is well-known to the media, usually a person who has appeared semi regularly on the various shows.  In some cases  The Stalking Horse / The Attack Dog will be a key member or chair of a congressional or state committee but The Stalking Horse / The Attack Dog  will always be in a position to the next level either in congress or in government.  But most important of all the The Stalking Horse / The Attack Dog will either be a longtime friend or ally of a different candidate or a group supporting opposing a different one.

The primary purpose of the The Stalking Horse / The Attack Dog’s entry into a presidential race is to say the words or do the attacks that the candidate or group he is working for can not.  Is there an issue that is too dangerous for the primary candidate to advance?  The Stalking Horse / The Attack Dog brings it up.  Is there a question that the primary candidate doesn’t feel comfortable answering?  The Stalking Horse / The Attack Dog will ask it and frame it in a way that the primary candidate can safely answer.  Is there an opponent that needs to be pressed without involving either a group or a particular candidate The Stalking Horse / The Attack Dog will not only ask that question but will aggressively press the case through every debate and public appearance in the hopes of throwing said candidate off their game.

The goal of the The Stalking Horse / The Attack Dog  will is to enable the victory of his candidate or the candidate of the PAC that supports them.  Because the The Stalking Horse / The Attack Dog goal is to support a different candidate he will not be from an early primary state unless the opponent of the person or group he is working is favored to win it.

The impossible dream of the but the The Stalking Horse / The Attack Dog is a position a high cabinet position or VP on the ticket or to be put in a position to be a front-runner the next time around.

 

The Stalking Horse / The Attack Dog is may or may not have a book out but will always have a friendly superpac backing him and will always be good for an on the record quote.  Said Stalking Horse / The Attack Dog is liked by the press not only because their profile is high enough to be worth their time but their willingness to give them a juicy quote means they will make news  Because of their high profile they will draw a fair amount contributions who want to keep in his good graces, and the people backing them will make sure The Stalking Horse / The Attack Dog has sufficient staff to seem credible but oddly enough that staff will not to any state beyond Super Tuesday.

 

The Stalking Horse / The Attack Dog is in the race until the field is cleared for the person they are really working for at which time they pull out due to the “inevitably” of the candidate they are working for and will happily give their full endorsement to them in an event of some size.  Their staff oddly will find themselves coordinating with said campaign seamlessly and will have their campaign debts paid off quick.

 

Usually The Stalking Horse / The Attack Dog is a candidate acceptable to the supporters of the people they are stalking for so a vote for them is a vote for that other candidate.  If by some quirk of fate that candidate falls out of failure early or is destroyed by scandal The Stalking Horse / The Attack Dog  can become an actual serious candidate.

****************************************************************************
If you want journalism owned by you instead of the left elites I would ask you to hit DaTipJar and help me pay for it.

My goal for 2015 is Twenty Two grand

Olimometer 2.52

That gets all the bills paid. (including my writers like Fausta)  If I can get to Forty Thousand I can afford to travel outside of New England and/or hire me a blogger to help me get it done.

Consider Subscribing 100 Subscribers at $20 a month will get the job done.

 

Our May Premium for a tip jar hitters of $50 or more is Tim Imholt’s book: The Forest of Assassins

Subscribe at $50 or more in and receive each monthly premium shipped the date of your payment.

All Tip Jar hits in May of $10 or more will get a copy of Jeff Trapani’s excellent E-Book Victor the Monster Frankenstein.

Instapundit tells us that former Governor of NY George Pataki is about to announce a run for president of the united states and sarcastically teases that posts with the words:

Feel the excitement

Now the reality of course is George Pataki, like Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham and quite a few of the others have only a slightly better chance of getting the GOP nomination for president that I do.  With God all things are possible but in a country where most people can’t name their own congressman the likelihood that they will, either after a memorable media outing or debate appearance,  inspire enough volunteers or raise enough money to even get on the ballots in any states after South Carolina is about equal to chance that Lynda Carter,  after seeing me cover a presidential event with my cool fedora & long flowing Doctor Who scarf begins to obsessively stalk me.

Given that these are not ignorant people, the question arises:  Why are they wasting their time running for the GOP nomination? Well there are as many reasons as there are candidates running so in the interest of answering that question today we begin a new series:

How to spot different types of candidates from quite a long way away

In this series we will list various types of candidates, the characteristics of said candidates and how you can spot said candidates in the wild.  This guide will allow you to quickly classify candidates by type before you waste money time or energy getting all excited about them.

Before we begin let me note that some candidates will fall into multiple categories and even some very serious candidates with a legitimate chance of winning the nomination will share some of these attributes with the most common also-ran/never was.

#1  The Fee Booster aka the Resume Enhancer

Distinguishing Characteristics 

1.  A political career past it’s prime

2.  A non-existent or niche appeal

3.  Lack of name recognition among non political junkies

4.  A non threatening countenance

The Fee Booster / Resume Enhancer is a common type of political animal whose natural habitat is a medium to  large state or a state with a strong to medium media presence.  Said boosters may have once had a national profile and at a particular time might have had considerable clout in the political world & media world but as time passed and younger more dynamic candidates arose to replace them, their appeal faded until they are not even active on the talk show circuit.  Alternatively they may have been the proponents of a single issue or cause and gained some notoriety for it but said cause or notoriety has faded. In rare cases the Fee Booster / Resume Enhancer, rather than a being a grizzled veteran of the political wars might be a younger candidate whose niche appeal precludes further advancement in the world national politics.  the fee enhancer is found in the low to medium low range on the speaking circuit price scale an it usually the 3rd or 4th choice of an organization that can’t afford someone with a higher profile but wants to bring in someone whose name is not completely unknown to speak.

The primary purpose of the Fee Booster / Resume Enhancer‘s entry into a presidential race is to be able to add the words “Former Presidential Candidate” to their profile.  Their goal is raising their profile enough to bring them to the mid level speaking fee range and perhaps attract the attention of a national board or organization,  Thus the one thing they want most of all is face time.

The impossible dream of such a candidate is to reach a point where their opinion and presence is actively sought by media and groups looking to push a cause long after their campaign is done.

The Fee Booster / Resume Enhancer is normally pushing either a newly released book or a particular plan, They are rarely followed by press in quantity although they will on occasion draw if they are from a state with a high media concentration.  Because of their desire for attention almost every press inquiry will get a response, but not too quick of one to preserve the illusion that they are sought after.  Their campaign will be almost completely self funded, handled by a single big former contributor,  or be done on a shoestring (unless a larger profile candidate as a purpose for them see The Stalking Horse).  The campaign’s  physical presence will, if it has one at all,  be a single office in Iowa and/or New Hampshire unless they come from a very early state like SC, Colorado, Nevada where they may have a 2nd office.  Their staff will usually be old friends, former aides who are not important enough to be courted by another campaign, the odd intern or old fan who was simply convinced said candidate was destined for greatness back in the days when Montreal still had a Major League Baseball team or before.

The Fee Booster / Resume Enhancer invariably is out the race by the start of March at the latest and will always endorse the front-runner unless the personal animosity between them is so strong that they can’t bear to do so.  Their biggest press days will be , their announcement, their withdrawal and the day they endorse another candidate.

As a general rule a primary or caucus vote for the Fee Booster / Resume Enhancer is a vote for the front-runner.

**********************************************************

****************************************************************************
If you want journalism owned by you instead of the left elites I would ask you to hit DaTipJar and help me pay for it.

My goal for 2015 is Twenty Two grand

Olimometer 2.52

That gets all the bills paid. (including my writers like Fausta)  If I can get to Forty Thousand I can afford to travel outside of New England and/or hire me a blogger to help me get it done.

Consider Subscribing 100 Subscribers at $20 a month will get the job done.

 

Our May Premium for a tip jar hitters of $50 or more is Tim Imholt’s book: The Forest of Assassins

Subscribe at $50 or more in and receive each monthly premium shipped the date of your payment.

All Tip Jar hits in May of $10 or more will get a copy of Jeff Trapani’s excellent E-Book Victor the Monster Frankenstein.