Let’s set aside, for a moment, whether or not you (or I) support the Graham-Cassidy Obamacare replacement bill. That’s been debated publicly and privately more tenaciously than any bill since Obamacare and in a much smaller time frame. Instead, let’s look at one argument: future elections.

There have been a lot of fallback arguments made. These are the indirect arguments not associated with the substance of the bill that people will make in an attempt to paint passage as a proper strategic move. The most common one is that the GOP needs to pass SOMETHING in order to go into the midterm elections from a position of strength with the claim that they kept their promise.

In one sense, this is true. As a whole, if the GOP cannot pass some form of Obamacare repeal, they’ll lose face… as a party. It will reflect poorly on the party in a way that sparks national discussions. RNC representatives will have to spin feverishly. Fundraising, their strong point for a long time, will be hampered.

In every other sense, it’s false to believe they’ll lose the midterm elections by not passing Graham-Cassidy. First, let’s look at the obvious example: Obamacare. When it passed in 2010, every leftwing media outlet heralded it as a show of strength for the Democratic Party and President Obama. It was. However, that show of strength did not translate into electoral wins. Later that year, the Democrats lost the House. Four years later, they lost the Senate. Two years later, they lost the White House. They were defeated by GOP candidates who incessantly hammered on the need to repeal Obamacare.

The same scenario looms for the GOP. Will the party be strengthened? Yes. Will the President? Yes. Will individual candidates in the House and Senate be strengthened? No. By passing Graham-Cassidy, the GOP will be taking the same red meat they’ve been using for seven years and handing it to their Democratic competitors. Every Democrat running for seats on Capitol Hill will use Graham-Cassidy and any shortcomings that come to light before election day as all the ammunition they need to win.

On a national stage, it would be hard for the GOP to argue their failure to repeal Obamacare. In individual elections for the House and Senate, a good GOP candidate can easily remove that albatross from their neck based upon their personal voting record. If they voted for repeal, the issue is no longer a valid attack point. In fact, PASSING Graham-Cassidy will force them to answer more questions on the defensive… just as Democrats had to do in 2010 after Obamacare passed. That didn’t work out well for them and it won’t work out for many vulnerable GOP candidates.

Passing Graham-Cassidy will help the President win reelection in 2020 and will make the GOP look good. It will harm midterm GOP candidates in 2018 just as Obamacare harmed midterm Democrats in 2010.

Who here trusts the GOP?” Not a single hand went up, but people over and over promised me that if the GOP spent like the democrats they would be back to throw them out too. No wonder the GOP is scared of the tea party.

What I asked at the Tea Party Sept 25th 2010

At CPAC 2017 I interviewed a lot of people about what they wanted to see and there were two things that were desired overall that I highlighted in my final post

The only thing that matters in the long run is this: Is Donald Trump going to deliver on these big issues (Obamacare and the Wall) that he highlighted during the campaign?

If this administration can’t answer yes, he is in danger of losing these folks and risks a primary, but if Donald Trump, in the end keeps his eyes on this prize, then these grass room activists are going to be with him when he needs them no matter what anyone in the media says.

As long as President Trump understand this fact, he’s going to do fine, and I have the distinct feeling that he does.

And so what did the GOP senate with a chance to pass the repeal of Obamacare do?

Broken Promise: GOP-Run Senate Votes Down Clean Repeal Of ObamaCare, 45/54

Allahpundit has it pegged:

The demise of the 7-year promise to repeal Obamacare is just the latest twist of the knife that Republicans have delivered to advocates of limited government. It’s a reminder that for all the shouting, the United States only really has one party: the party of big government. Democrats expand government when they’re in power, and Republicans cry foul when they’re in the opposition. But when Republicans gain power, they either expand government in their own way (as President Bush did with the Medicare prescription drug bill and No Child Left Behind federal education power grab) or merely preserve Democrats’ gains until Democrats can regain enough power to expand government some more.

It looks very much like the Tea Party was quite correct to distrust these dishonest and dishonorable leeches.

I think the time has come to start to start putting Mike Rogers’ of Granite Grok plan into effect:

The time to take over the GOP (state by state) or set up a real third party (let’s call it the conservative party, like NY state), is NOW, after a historic election that demonstrated the ineptness of the “Wizards of Smart”.

The time NOT to talk about and vote for a third part candidate, or stay home and pout about rules that work against you is DURING an historic election, when one of the evils is immeasurably worse than the guy you can’t quite warm to.

If we successfully set up a conservative party, and win some seats, we can choose to align with Republicans or even endorse their candidate as a tactical matter on a vote by vote basis.

I think the first step is to run pro-repeal candidates as primary opponents to sitting GOP senators and congressmen and if they are defeated or rejected by the GOP then the very moment that the 2018 midterms are done to start setting up those conservative parties.

Until the GOP sees consequences for this betrayal it will not change.

One irony, it will be the GOP party but not Donald Trump who will suffer for this betrayal, and deservedly so.


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Last year, I was very encouraged by much of what the GOP platform stated. Yes, I’m one of those weird people who actually read it. Apparently, most of our elected Republican officials in DC either didn’t read it or dismissed it after they won. There are key elements that are getting missed.

Before anyone says “it’s too early to judge,” let’s take a few things into consideration. “Reducing the Federal Debt” is a big one that’s highlighted on page 8 of the platform. It discusses spending restraints as “a necessary component that must be vigorously pursued.” Thus far, the only proposals coming out of Congress have been to increase the debt. They promised to reduce it and I’d even accept it if they just kept it in check but with budget talks reaching a head at the end of the month, it’s almost certain that they’re going to raise it. Why put that in the platform if you’re just going to do the opposite?

“Defending Marriage Against an Activist Judiciary” is a big part of the platform, as is defending religious liberties. So far, nothing positive in this regard has even sniffed the President’s desk and actions from the administration seem bent on keeping the new status quo in regards to both marriage and religious freedoms. Judge Gorsuch was a nice addition, but his presence on the bench will not be able to defend marriage if Congress doesn’t give him something to defend.

Then, we get to the least discussed promise in the platform. “Federalism as the Foundation of Personal Liberty” outlines states’ rights and how the 10th Amendment must be brought to prominence once again. Other than Scott Pruitt at the EPA, no other efforts have been hinted at by any Republicans in DC from Congress to the White House. In fact, there have been direct attacks on the concepts of Federalism within the administration as they discuss imposing Washington’s will on the states when it comes to crime, immigration, and trade.

One of the most popular Republican issues of the day is how to handle sanctuary cities. I’m not a supporter of these havens of illegal immigration, but there’s a proper way for the government to reward states who crack down on sanctuary cities rather than harm those who do not. Mandates from DC that do not include sufficient compensation are tyrannical and force states to comply or feel the wrath of the fed. That’s not how the founders intended it, nor is it necessary to achieve the end results. We can rid our nation of sanctuary cities through federal assistance. When DC uses mandates and punishments to push their agenda, the end result is never good even if the intentions are righteous.

Don’t get me started on their stated platform promise to balance the budget when we have a trillion dollar infrastructure project to pay for on top of everything else that’s been flying around DC for the past three months. At what point to do we stop accepting that the Republicans are slightly less liberal than the Democrats? When are we going to tell them that being better isn’t good enough?

The GOP platform is nothing more than a piece of digital paper. The Democrats are even worse. It’s no coincidence that the Federalist Party’s idea for holding politicians accountable to the platform is getting attention from both major parties. If our elected officials are unwilling to fulfill the promises they sign, why should we believe they’ll do anything they say?

There are many ways that you can make a suggestion in a story and create the meme you want to make in a persons mind.

A great little example of this took place in the coverage of the pro-forma vote for speaker in the new congress.

First lets look at the coverage via The Hill

Ryan reelected Speaker in near-unanimous GOP vote

Updated 1:50 p.m.

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) on Tuesday won reelection as Speaker of the House in a near-unanimous GOP vote that reflected a unified Republican party dead set on dismantling the past eight years of the Obama administration.

Conservative Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), a frequent thorn in leadership’s side, was the sole Republican to defect from Ryan. Massie cast his vote for Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.), who challenged Ryan for the Speaker’s gavel in 2015 but not this year.

The final vote totals were 239 votes for Paul Ryan, 189 votes for Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), two votes for Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) and one vote each for Reps. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.), John Lewis (D-Ga.) and Daniel Webster (R-Fla.).

Pelosi loses four, Ryan one

Updated 1:44

Paul Ryan and Nancy Pelosi are both basically winners today.

Ryan is the bigger winner. While the Speaker certainly would prefer to have not had a single defection, losing just one vote is a huge victory since just last year he lost nine votes in the House Speaker election from his own party.

Before Donald Trump‘s win in the presidential election, members of Ryan’s own conference were at least talking about voting against him. That talk completely died down after the election, and only Rep. Thomas Massie cast a GOP ballot against Ryan on Tuesday.

Pelosi lost only four votes, which suggests that she retains an iron grip on her caucus — despite terrible results in last year’s election for Democrats up and down the ballot. 

Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) ran a relatively strong challenge against Pelosi in the internal Democratic caucus vote last year, but it appeared most Democrats wanted to rally around their longtime leader in Tuesday’s vote. 

Who what when where how.  Basic strait forward facts. Reporting as it should be.

Now let’s contrast that with how the Washington Post tells the same story.

Lawmakers reelected Paul D. Ryan as House speaker Tuesday, choosing the Wisconsin Republican with a fraught history with President-elect Donald Trump to serve as Trump’s chief legislative partner.

Ryan won the support of all but one Republican, winning with many fewer GOP defectors than when he first won the speakership in 2015. The vast majority of Democrats voted for Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who was reelected as party leader last year despite an abortive effort among some colleagues to oust her after November’s disappointing election results.

But the 24 hours preceding the vote showed that unity can be fleeting: His reelection came less than two hours after Republicans held an emergency meeting to reverse proposed changes that would roll back the authority of the independent Office of Congressional Ethics. Ryan opposed those changes ahead of a Monday night conference meeting, but lawmakers voted for them anyway — then agreed to reverse course Tuesday after a public firestorm.

Notice the wording. Negative. Ryan has a “fraught history” the “unity can be fleeting”, lawmakers despite Ryan’s opposition “voted for them anyway.” Those who had opposed him were “defectors”

The take away? Paul Ryan may have won but he’s not sitting well with either his members or his president, he’s weak!

Now notice how the contrast with Pelosi. the “Vast Majority” of Democrats voted for Pelosi. A positive adjective not noting that with a caucus with 47 less members she lost four times as many votes. (4-1 by vote for 2.1% defections for her vs 0.5% for Ryan) The effort to oust her were “abortive”, The problem “disappointing election results” not anything to do with her leadership.

Now if it’s in one story it’s not a big deal, but if you use this subtle wording in say 10 stories a day, (the same wording is repeated in a later story at the post) every day then you plant the idea in the mind of the reader. Ryan weak, Pelosi strong, GOP divided, Dems united.

It’s all rather subtle but that’s what selling a meme is all about.

And that’s how the MSM continues to try to play you day after day, year after year, decade after decade, which is likely why you’re here.


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While I was volunteering for WQPH at the Johnny Appleseed Festival in Leominster MA I did several interviews for the station but there were also some political people worth getting on camera which of course could not be associated with the station.

So I left the WQPH booth and went out into the festival where I saw a tea party friend working a pair of booths, one for national GOP candidate Donald Trump and one for Frank Ardinger running for state rep in the 4th Worcester District His web site is here.(Leominster) who I interviewed here. (Full disclosure he is a subscriber to the website and has been for years.)

It turns out Gwen is now the chair of the Leominster GOP committee.

Three things really jumped out at me, the first was the giant Lost in Space Robot which really got some attention, The second was the list of events which indicate quite an outreach for the GOP, but the big thing that jumped out was the fact that in the blue state of Massachusetts the Ardinger booth was right next the Donald Trump one & sharing some staff while there was no booth for Hillary Clinton that I saw and if there was one I missed it certainly wasn’t near the booth for Frank’s opponent Natalie Higgins. That it had no Hillary signs anywhere near it speaks volumes and all of it in Trump’s favor.

One more thing

You might wonder why I didn’t interview Natalie Higgins the upset winner of the Democrat primary in the 4th Worcester district particularly as her booth was right across of the WQPH booth.

Normally I would not have hesitated to do so, but as Tom is both a friend and a longtime subscriber to the blog I didn’t want to put myself in a spot where I might find myself doing an unfair interview. That wouldn’t be fair to the readers nor to candidate Higgins, although I would have really liked to ask her why I didn’t see any Hillary buttons in her group.


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Hillary Clinton represents an existential threat to the nation. She would perpetuate the liberal dumbing down of America, attempt to load the courts with more leftists, and redefine our unalienable rights to match the progressive agenda. Under no circumstances would I endorse or even remotely consider voting for her.

That’s the preface necessary to set the stage for dissent. As I wrote previously, questioning Trump’s policies will not make you a #NeverTrump Clinton supporter. We can see Trump as a leftward lurch by the GOP or we can view him as an opportunity to take a malleable candidate and show him why fiscal conservatism is the right direction for America if we want to thrive today and be sustained into the future. I’ve held to the hope that the latter can come to pass but recent trends point to the former being the more likely scenario.

A recent poll should shock every fiscal conservative in the Republican Party. 85% of Republicans surveyed said that free trade has cost the U.S. more jobs than it has created, compared to 54% of Democrats. Let that sink in. The party of Reagan that has witnessed the tremendous benefits of a free market economy and the absolute need for free trade as a hallmark of our fiscal plan has reversed its perspective in a single election cycle. I don’t care how charismatic of a salesman someone is – this should not have been even remotely possible.

There’s a difference between believing that our current free trade agreements can be improved and believing that free trade is bad. Free trade is not bad. It has always been the driving force for our economic prosperity. Today’s communication and infrastructural advancements make this the perfect opportunity to take advantage of trade in ways that we have never been available to us.

More importantly, we are no longer the only consumers nor are we the primary producers. The global economy is expanding and the United States needs to lead it, not break away from it. The fear of globalism is a righteous fear. It’s the primary reason that we need to maintain as much control of global trade or risk losing our place as the main benefactors.

Here’s a short video from 2010 that explains it quite nicely:

The biggest argument against free trade is that it means more jobs are sent overseas. This is a fundamental misunderstanding of economics. In a thriving free market economy driven by free trade, the “loss” of jobs is an opportunity to replace low-yield employment with higher-yield employment. As companies rightfully send certain jobs, particularly manufacturing jobs, to places where they can be done more cost effectively, the nation’s economy becomes more stable. With stability comes the creation of more industries and increased domestic employment requirements within those industries. Jobs aren’t lost. They are traded. They are replaced. As a consumer-driven nation, the need for better employees rises with free trade. As a technology-driven nation, the need for higher-skilled employees rises with free trade as well.

“Fair” trade is part of an anti-growth economic system. It’s a short-term bandaid that forces companies to keep jobs and production facilities in the United States. This concept is being sold as a good thing. Unfortunately, it’s only a good thing in the beginning. As revenues dry up due to increased production expenditures, costs of goods rise for consumers. Whether through tariffs or forced domestication of production, the benefits for a few are taken from the wallets of the masses. For example, let’s say Apple was forced through tariffs or mandates to produce the iPhone in the United States. That would bring a huge number of jobs back; over a million people contribute in some way to iPhone production worldwide. It’s a win, right? The problem is that production costs would skyrocket. The already-overpriced iPhone would need to retail over $2000 to make up some of the difference. As sales volume drops, so too would jobs.

If you’re thinking that Apple makes enough money already and should bring those jobs to the United States without raising prices, you’ve already taken your first steps towards a socialist mentality.

The GOP has been more responsible over the years when it comes to fiscal planning… at least that’s what we’ve been led to believe. I contend that the GOP isn’t pushing to the left because of Trump. Instead, it has always wanted to be the moderate populist party for the sake of winning elections rather than a party that believes in the tenets of fiscal conservatism.

The shift away from free trade is reminiscent of a lesson in George Orwell’s 1984 that doesn’t get as much attention as others. In the dystopian novel, we learn of the dangers of an overreaching government and how “Big Brother” can make our lives miserable for the sake of a perceived good to the oligarchy. We all know about doublespeak. What gets less attention is the lesson of controlled perceptions. In the book, Oceania is in a constant state of war with either Eurasia or Eastasia. The question of who the enemy is at any given moment is dictated by the leaders and maintained in false perpetuity, including in the past. If Oceania is at war with Eurasia at any given moment, it has always been at war with Eurasia. If the government shifts and declares that they are at war with Eastasia, then they have always been at war with Eastasia and have never been at war with Eurasia. Attempts to say otherwise are punished.

Somehow, the electorate is believing the manufactured reality that the Republican Party is now against free trade. If you were to question some of the 85% of Republicans who believe this, I would wager that a majority would say that the party has always been against it. Sadly, they may be inadvertently correct.

It Ain’t over until it’s over

Yogi Berra

Of all the stories about Jackie Robinson that you might hear, the one that has stuck with me the most involves a moment of defeat.  A moment where he seemingly had no recourse but to accept defeat.

It was 3:58 PM on Oct 3rd 1951 and Bobby Thompson had just hit his “shot heard round the world” the Giants fans were going wild and as he circled the bases the Dodger players had all left the field, all that is but one.

In the Book:  Rickey and Robinson author Harvey Frommer describes the scene:

Now thousands were climbing out onto the field.  “Holy hell broke loose all over,” recalls former Giant Wes Westrum.  Only Jackie Robinson of the Brooklyn defenders in the field remained at his position.  Hands on his hips, a scowl on his face,

In his own book The Man in the Crowd A fan’s notes on Four Generation of New York baseball Stanley Cohen recalls watching the game on TV with a friend who was confused by Robinson’s action.

“What’s he doing there?”  my friend wondered

“I think”, I said, “he’s making sure Thompson touches all the bases.”

He was right Frommer again:

He waited and watched to make sure that Thomson, trotting out the home run, touched every base.  “That was so characteristic of Jack,” observes Rachel Robinson.

Robinson knew that under the rules of baseball if Thompson missed a base he could be called out, he knew that it didn’t matter if the ball had cleared the fence, until that plate was touched the run hadn’t scored and the Dodgers didn’t lose and if he left the field before touching that plate the game remained tied and his Dodgers still has a chance.

And that brings us to today in Wisconsin and Donald Trump.

Mr. Trump is getting angry about the delegate counts now saying that having to get to the delegate count that everybody knew was necessary from day 1 is unfair.

It’s an amazing argument.  It’s an argument he didn’t make when he announced in June.  It’s an argument that he didn’t make in January or February.  Only now with the realities of math against him are we hearing how unfair it is.

One might say it’s analogous to a 17 man field running a marathon and the leader at the 22 mile mark saying he should get credit for finishing the race.

Now I’ll concede that the GOP establishment doesn’t like Trump. I share Donald Trump supporter’s disdain and distrust for the GOP establishment. Trump supports are probably right that they will use dirty tricks and shady deals to try to keep from the nomination.

But expecting that he earn the 1237 delegates before the convention to clinch the nomination or persuade that number to support him after he gets there isn’t one of them.

1237 is not dirty tricks.  That’s just Jackie making sure all the bases are touched before walking off the field.

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The Marco Rubio Campaign is rightly crowing over winning the Gov Nikki Haley sweepstakes in SC

Team Cruz supposedly made a “feverish bid” for her support, pitching her on the idea that her criticism of Trump in her SOTU rebuttal had damaged her populist cred and backing Cruz would be one way to restore it. Team Jeb had been courting her for ages, believing that Haley’s backing would have been a shot of credibility for his candidacy that Bush could take to his wavering donors as proof that even the party’s young stars still believe he’s in this thing. (George W. Bush made a point of complimenting Haley in his speech at Jeb’s rally this week.) I wonder what would have happened if either of them had showed some strength in recent polls of SC. If Cruz and Trump were neck and neck with Rubio a distant third, Haley might have concluded that Rubio was on his way out of the race and it was Cruz or bust. If, on the other hand, Jeb was neck and neck with Rubio for third, that might have been enough for Haley to roll the dice on him as the center-right’s best chance. As it is, despite his setback in New Hampshire, Rubio’s done well enough lately to make him the safest pick for Haley.

Now endorsements are nice they make a great photo op and conventional wisdom say they are big, but as I recall from the NFL playoffs conventional wisdom said the Patriots would defeat Denver who currently possess the Lombardy Trophy (although in fairness Tom Brady was a 2 pt conversion away after one of the most dramatic comeback TD’s in history with seconds left to proving them all right).

Or to put it another way, while on Twitter Robio fans are, with reason, crowing, none of these endorsements mean a thing unless Rubio wins

National Review via politico notes what this does to the Rubio campaign

“He has the very popular sitting governor, very popular junior senator, very popular upstate congressman. He has every favorable position going for him that he could ever hope to have,” Miller said of Rubio. “If Rubio can’t win here, under these favorable circumstances, where can he win?”

This is smart spin, aimed at inflating Rubio’s expectations in the run-up to Saturday’s primary. It’s also an entirely fair observation. Rubio’s team insists they are focused on winning a long-term delegate fight against Trump and Cruz. Yet both of those candidates have already notched wins. Sooner or later, to sustain the perception of viability, Rubio will need to win somewhere. And it’s not unreasonable to ask, as Miller did: If Rubio can’t win here, with most of the state’s Republican apparatus supporting him, where can he?

Think about that a second, in every poll I’ve seen out of SC Rubio trails Trump by a ton and Cruz by a little.  Even Rubio can’t beat Trump in SC where can he beat him and if he finishes behind Cruz then it’s even worse.

Or to put it another way, after SC Trump and Cruz are likely to win place or show in every primary to this point, even with a win Marco will not be able to say that and if he finishes 2nd he barely shows himself more viable than John Kasich.

That’s inspiring as hell isn’t it?

On the bright side, even if he finishes 3rd he’s still doing better than Jeb.

Update: Cue Julie Andrews

Or Audrey Hepburn

C’mom Marco show me

Update 2:  Yes I know Marni Nixon dubbed her in the movie here is the soundtrack

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If you want to understand the difference between the GOP & Dems here it is:

Start with Nancy Pelosi on the spending bill from the Hill:

“We’ve had to sort of calibrate how we presented this to members because … we were afraid [Republicans] might pull things out if more Republicans knew about what was in the bill,”

You will note that Pelosi was afraid of what Republicans would do if they knew what they were voting for but that fear is nothing compared to their fear of their own base because when Bernie Sanders did this:

Bernie Sanders’ campaign on Friday sued the Democratic National Committee in federal court after the party organization withheld the campaign’s access to a crucial voter database.

The internal warfare exploded after the DNC cut off Sanders from the database and said the Vermont senator’s presidential campaign exploited a software error to improperly access confidential voter information collected by Hillary Clinton’s team.

and started a hashtag campaign #stormthednc the Democrats folded in under 24 hours:

Sanders’ campaign claimed that the DNC “capitulated” as a deadline neared for a court hearing on a request for an emergency injunction that the Sanders campaign sought after suing the DNC in federal court Friday afternoon.

Sanders’ lawsuit sought the “immediate restoration” of the campaign’s access to the database, arguing that the campaign would lose roughly $600,000 a day in donations without it. The campaign said in a statement that its access to the database should be restored by Saturday morning.

“We are extremely pleased that the DNC has reversed its outrageous decision to take Sen. Sanders’ data,” Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver said in a statement. “Clearly, they were very concerned about their prospects in court. Now what we need to restore confidence in the DNC’s ability to secure data is an independent audit that encompasses the DNC’s record this entire campaign.”

 

Meanwhile less that 24 hours after Paul Ryan & Mitch McConnell stick a huge finger in the eye of their own base provoking rush to say this.

“And now the Republicans have the largest number of seats in the House they’ve had in Congress since the Civil War. And it hasn’t made any difference at all. It is as though Nancy Pelosi is still running the House and Harry Reid is still running the Senate. “Betrayed” is not even the word here. What has happened here is worse than betrayal. Betrayal is pretty bad, but it’s worse than that. … [W]e don’t even need a Republican Party if they’re gonna do this. You know, just elect Democrats, disband the Republican Party, and let the Democrats run it, because that’s what’s happening anyway.”

Mitch McConnell says this:

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Friday warned Republican voters to steer clear of nominating Tea Party candidates who can’t win in next year’s general election.

“The way you have a good election year is to nominate people who can win,” he told reporters during his final Capitol Hill press conference of 2015.

I think Glenn Reynolds put it best

AFTER WHAT HAPPENED THIS WEEK MCCONNELL NEEDS TO PERSUADE REPUBLICANS THAT IT MATTERS WHETHER GOP CANDIDATES WIN

Now here is the question. It’s a given that the GOP is the party of guns, in fact as Reynolds put it when it comes to Guns:

it’s one of the relatively few areas where the GOP hasn’t sold its constituents down the river, probably because it knows that gun-rights folks are attentive and unforgiving.

Yet the GOP is not afraid of their heavily armed base, while the Democrats are terrified of a bunch of college kids who protest against fried chicken.

What is the difference, I think it’s Christianity.

The left has a party that is rejecting christianity in droves. When you have a party that is pretty much secular there is no moral restraint on any action so the ability to predict the actions of people you offend is limited. Anything could happen.

The GOP on the other hand & the gun rights folks are still highly Christian and restrained by the commandments of Christ. They have the traditional beliefs that Americans have had for decades and because of this it takes a long time to reach the breaking point:

 

There were decades of problems with England before the colonies finally rebelled and even so only a 1/3 of the supported it.

We paid off the Barbary pirates for years before finally deciding Enough!

Impressment went on for many years before War was declared on England

Ten years passed between the Alamo and the Mexican war

The slavery issue boiled for decades before Sumter, Europe fought for 3 years before America jumped into World War I and if Japan didn’t hit Pearl Harbor FDR would have had a hard time getting the US to declare war on the Nazi’s.

Even in modern times, the 1st gulf war took months before things started. Without September 11th there are no wars in Iraq or Afghanistan and even in Iraq it was a very long build up to war and votes in congress before the bombs started falling.

 

I think the GOP knows this and that’s why it’s willing to push the base so far. I’m very glad the well armed GOP base they keep poking is heavily Christian, because the moment it becomes less restrained by the demands of following Christ is when their actions will have fatal consequences for the country and the world.

But the party needs to remember one thing, in all the examples I gave above, it took a long time for the people to reach the breaking point, but in each case they eventually did and once you push an armed population past its breaking point, the result is not pretty.

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This weekend the 603 Alliance will be holding their caucus at the fairgrounds in Contoocook NH.

I’ve covered the 603 alliance before both in NH and outside of the state, the Caucus begins at 11:30 here are the rules from the site:

• All nationally-recognized Republican Presidential Candidates will be included in the Caucus.
• Participants must be registered New Hampshire Republicans or Undeclared voters.
• Voters are required to show a government-issued, photo ID as proof.
• If voters are new to N.H. and recently registered to vote, they must bring proof of registration to check-in (this can be obtained from your Town Clerk).
• Voters are requested to continue to participate in the caucus process until its completion.
• Voter check-in stations open at 10:00 a.m. and close at 11:30. Anyone on line at 11:30 will be permitted to continue with check-in and participate in the caucus.
• Non-voters may enter the arena as observers, but will be asked to stay in a designated area. ONLY valid voters, wearing official ID bracelets issued at check-in, will be permitted in the voting sections.
• Children are welcome to attend as observers. Children under age 15 may stay with their parents or guardians in the voting area (but may not vote).
• Media and Campaign Staffers must be credentialed at the check-in station before entering the arena.
• Candidate signs are permitted in the arena. However, if a candidate has been eliminated, then those signs must be removed.
• The decision of the Marshals and the Voting Monitors is final.
• Civility and courtesy is asked of all participants. Voters must adhere to the rules stated by the Monitor. Those not complying with proper conduct will be asked to leave.
• In the case of a tie, a caucus session will be held and another vote taken.
• In the event the winner of the caucus drops out of the race before the Primary Election on February 9, the runner-up will be considered the new winner of the caucus.

Now some of you might be saying, so it’s a caucus big deal it doesn’t mean anything, the primary isn’t for months.  Au Contraire:

The idea reason for the existence of the 603 alliance and this caucus is to get conservatives to unite behind one candidate and members of the alliance have pledged to unite behind the winner.  Even if just a portion of them keep that promise it will make a difference particularly in a crowded field.

But there is a real wild card in play here.

When this idea was first proposed Donald Trump had not announced and it was generally assumed that even if he did enter the field he would be a non factor.

However now Mr. Trump not only leads the polls but he has apparently energized a whole slew of voters who might normally go to other conservative candidates.

Three months ago the conventional wisdom was this event was made for a Walker or a Cruz or even a Perry or Paul but given the lay of the land today there is a real possibility that if the trump people show up in force he could come away with this thing.

It’s certainly not going to be boring.