There are several ways to look at the result in CA-36.

First of all there is the station wagon full of nuns theory. The sudden death of Hahn’s mother drawing positive attention to people who had not paid attention to the race. There is just no way you can poll or do anything about that.

Second of all there is Stacy’s take:

Look, if Hahn wins by less than 10 points, that’s a huge GOP victory in this heavily Democrat-leaning district. If the margin is less than 5 points . . . Well, that’s hard to imagine. If Huey should somehow win, it will be nothing short of a miracle.

There is something to that, but like the 1984 election when a Democratic pundit said: “You spot me 50 electoral votes and I can win this thing” you don’t get congressional seats on moral victories.

However I think the best way to look at it is Massachusetts 2010.

Any student of military history knows that to win a war, you want to tie down your foes with a demonstration to keep them from reinforcing the primary theater of battle. For the investment of an Ad by Turn Right USA the democrats in the district were sent into a panic. They spent a fortune on a seat in a blue state and a district where the president won by 30 points. As long as Democrats are playing defense on their own turf,they can’t make inroads in states where the GOP ran wild in 2010 to re-take the house.

One final thought: Democrats not only spent a fortune but they used panic tactics, and unlike in Massachusetts, you had allies crossing lines, from hacking to death threats to compromising an actual American Hero. These were lines that were not crossed in the Bay state. Hahn and her allies were unmasked and yet the district voted for her anyway. Like Hal Chase at his trial by the National league it call came out, and he still won. Quote Bill James:

He was free, then. It had all been brought out into the open , and he had gotten by with it. This seems to have had a liberating effect of Chase’s activities…

Chase went on to help throw the world series in 1919. Why would we expect Hahn or any of her cronies to show any more restraint in their governance or in their tactics after they got away with it during a national election?

In a republic you get the government you deserve. The people of California in general and CA-36 in particular have made their choices and they deserve all they will get from them.

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I could not help but think of this scene when reading Stacy McCain post on the death of Janice Hahn’s 86 year old mother yesterday.

The objective political reality is that the death of Ramona Hahn kills whatever hope there was that Republican Craig Huey could win this election. The local news broadcasts in L.A. tonight will feature stirring tributes to the life of Ramona Hahn, and it will be front-page news in tomorrow’s L.A. Times.

That’s just the way it is, and it would be dishonest to pretend otherwise.

We of course offer our condolences to Ms. Hahn and her family but this of course has no relevance to Ms Hahn’s fitness for office.

In terms of political effect in a turnout election Stacy has a pretty good point on what this might do, the slightly morbid question is really two-fold:

1. Will disaffected liberals who were angry at Janice Hahn suddenly decide to vote for her because her mother is dead? Unlikely!

2. Will people who were not even aware of the election suddenly be informed because of the news reports of the elder Hahn’s death and choose to vote? THAT is the 64,000 question.

if this story broke two days ago I think Stacy would be absolutely correct, with this story breaking tonight and then running in the papers tomorrow it may in fact be too late to make a difference, either way we shall and should fight on.

…concerning Zombie’s post about the Turn Right/ Ehlinger ad.

In their get out the vote flyer story on the CA 36 race they religiously avoid topics that might depress the Hahn campaign turnout while Highlighting items that might energize democratic voters. This in itself is no surprise, this is the MSM and that they are in the tank for Democrats should be no surprise to anyone who has paid any attention over the years.

Yet among their Omissions is any reference to the Turn Right USA rap video. Just to remind you Zombie’s post yesterday referred to the ad as “backfiring” and “dunderheaded video” yet the AP doesn’t mention it at all.

One would think that given the “Hey Democrats you need to get out and vote” theme of the story they might include the video that might energize democrats, while dodging the Fox news story on the gang connections, but they do not.

Why? Because they can’t take the chance of democratic voters finding one more reason to avoid voting for Janice Hahn.

Oh and one more thing, I hit Zombie on his conclusion concerning the Turn Right USA ads, but take a good look at Zombie’s full post vs the AP story running today. Compare the two and ask yourself this question: If you were totally uninformed about the CA-36 race, which one brings you up to speed?

The answer tells you in a nutshell why the MSM is declining while alternative media is rising.

The blogger Zombie is known for his extensive and solid photo essays and for his place as one of the greatest members of the old LGF crowd before Charles Johnson went mad. PJ Media is lucky to have him, but reading his piece on the ca-36 race seems to me an attempt to re-write history after the fact.

Let’s be Blunt: From Zombie’s own numbers Craig Huey has no business winning this race. In the primary he drew only 22% of the vote. The combined republican vote on the ballot (according to Wikipedia not my favorite source) was under 41% of the vote.

Meanwhile the Democrats on the ballot combined for a total over 55% of the vote. That is a margin of 14 points. Closer than ever before but still a huge hill to climb to win.

After the primary nobody was paying any attention to this race, the National GOP was doing nothing, nobody was writing about the race and it looked very much like Craig Huey was going to be yet another republican who was ready to “lose with dignity” with the words “former GOP congressional candidate” on his resume.

Then the Turn Right USA ad came out. Zombie has this to say about it:

The ad draws national attention but backfires and causes more damage to Huey’s campaign than it does to Hahn’s.

Say WHAT? Let’s look at Zombie’s own time line verbatim from his post:

June, 2011: Outside PAC group unaffiliated with the Huey campaign releases offensive YouTube rap video parody attacking Hahn for her support of a program to give millions of taxpayer dollars to convicted violent gang members as part of purported “gang amelioration” efforts. The ad draws national attention but backfires and causes more damage to Huey’s campaign than it does to Hahn’s.
Early July, 2011: The general campaign begins to turn nasty as Hahn, stunned by poll results that show her lead is razor-thin, releases several underhanded negative attack ads against Huey.

Now in the world where I live in, this is what is known as: “cause and effect”

Later on in the post Zombie does it again (all emphasis mine):

…Hahn’s team immediately recognized the dunderheaded video as a godsend, something that played into their hands.

From that day onward, Hahn and her surrogates have been mentioning the ad incessantly, trying to tar Huey as a racist by association— even though it was Huey himself who called the ad “racist.”

To this day, the “Give Me Your Cash, Bitch” ad remains the only aspect of this race which has drawn national attention, much to Huey’s dismay.

One last detail, though: Despite backfiring disastrously, the ad (as noted at Slate) did succeed in bringing the money-for-gangs story back to light, and ever since that time, a growing pall of scandal has been cast over Hahn’s reputation as well, as various other media outlets and blogs have followed up on the ugly story which seems to exemplify Hahn’s “no accountability” reputation.

Succeeded in bringing the money-for games story to light? It did a whole lot more than that:

  1. It caused a Hacker (who has since been caught) to attack the site of the Ad.
  2. It resulted in a death threat at Turn Right USA’s HQ and not just a simple call or e-mail, a threat delivered with Gasoline and a lighter.
  3. It resulted in the NRCC finally getting involved actually putting up a web site highlighting the charges while denouncing the ad.
  4. It resulted in the Hahn campaign blowing a 10-1 campaign cash lead to try to drown the story out.
  5. It resulted in his stories on the association of Janice Hahn with gangs to be the primary association on YouTube if you search for her.
  6. It resulted in the unbelievable scene of a lily white candidate and a bunch of lily white leftist sites playing the race card against calling two longtime black rappers for a video and song not different from any other rap music you will see.
  7. And most incredibility it has caused the Hahn campaign to be stupid enough to attempt to repress the story by a cease and desist letter to the TV network that ran it, resulting in a new story highlighting her gang links again in the week before the election.

In other words this ad succeeded in causing the Hahn campaign and the left to spend time money and give national exposure to an issue that she was vulnerable on.

If this is what Zombie calls a “backfire” I’d like to see what he things it is a direct hit. As General Nathaniel Greene said after Bunker Hill:

I wish we would sell them another hill at the same price.

The truth is, with all due respect to candidate (and I hope soon congressman) Huey the only reason he is poised for an incredible upset is the Turn Right / Ehlinger video, period! It broke the dam and made everything that followed possible.

Zombie’s piece seems to attempt to do one of the following depending on the result:

  1. In the case of a Huey longshot victory, deny any credit to Turn Right USA
  2. In the case of an unsurprising Huey defeat, blame Turn Right USA.

This attempt to marginalize Turn Right USA is eerily similar to the campaign by establishment republicans to blame Sarah Palin for the 2008 presidential defeat when her presence on the ticket is the only reason why McCain had a prayer at all.

It could be I’m being too hard on Zombie, after all everyone gets it wrong once in a while, but as a friend of Ladd Ehlinger (so perhaps I’m biased) you can object to his tactics, you can object to his style, or his tactics, but to deny their effectiveness in this race; That’s just nonsense.

Update: As the bible says, to every time there is a season as Ladd Ehlinger reminds us:

If Huey’s ridiculously expensive campaign consultants at Gilliard Blanning (A Professional Loser Corporation) want to blame me for a loss, they should do so after the election. If they want to get credit for a win, then they should also worry about that after the election.

First things first.

Update 2: Zombie kindly links back to my post and we exchange opinions in his comments.

It’s one thing when someone decides that they are going to intimidate a blogger with a cease and desist order, it’s totally another for A congressional candidate in CA-36 to actually send such an order to a TV station over a story they did on her years ago:

Ms. Hahn’s attorney sent Fox 11 News a “cease and desist” order demanding that Fox 11 News not air their latest report tonight which, as any fool knows (but apparently not Ms. Hahn) is the equivalent of throwing red meat in front of a lion.

Fox 11 News led with their new report. Not only did Fox News stand by its earlier report it expounded on Ms. Hahn’s gang program for 10 minutes and 12 seconds.

Ms. Hahn reportedly refused to be interviewed for the latest report.

If you have ever wondered what Shakespeare meant by his phrase in Hamlet “Hoisted with his own petard,” now you know

Here is the new story it generated:

It was a sign of trouble when Janice Hahn was running negative when she had a 10-1 cash advantage and an unknown opponent, it was a bigger sign when someone bothered to make threats to the life of the people of TURN RIGHT USA pac. It was a sign of trouble when they wouldn’t return calls or e-mails from meconcerning either the death threats or the Hacker hitting the Hahnshomeboyz site. All of it is bad but it is really under the radar stuff that doesn’t get noticed by many.

But there is no way to keep an attempt to intimidate a local TV station under the radar. That move makes it a major news story locally just a week before the election, and a NATIONAL news story!

Why would Janice Hahn’s campaign do this? As far as I can see there are three possibilities:

1. They are so used to dealing with gangsters that intimidation is second nature to them so it never occurred to them that it might not be wise.

2. They are so stupid that they actually thought such a tactic would either work or not draw more attention to themselves

3. Their internal polling shows their situation so desperate that they had nothing to lose by trying.

Myself, I think it could be all three. An anonymous source interested in the campaign tells me their (the source’s) polling shows Hahn down 5 points in liberal Venice Beach!

But I shouldn’t get my hopes up, after all what are the odds of Craig Huey, an unknown, running against a longtime city counselor to succeed an almost iconic democratic congresswoman from a wealthy family in a state as blue as California actually winning?

I’d say they’re as long as an unknown state senator defeating a sitting Attorney General for a seat in congress held by a liberal icon for decades in one of the bluest states of the Union.

Final thought: Can someone please explain to me why the MSM in southern California are leaving this story to a blogger and radio host 3000+ miles away?

Update:
the Lonely conservative gets it.

Update 2: Dave Weigel raises an interesting point:

This redrawn seat would be easy for Democrats to win back in 2012 if they lost it temporarily over this issue that they never even thought about.

Cook report not withstanding could the Dems have decided to drop this candidate and her baggage on the theory they will win it easy next time when it actually matters?

Update 3: Instalanche, just what Hahn needs more publicity! Breitbart is getting into the act too! Fixed some spelling etc that I missed. Got to stop rushing and relying on spellchecker.

Update 4: Ace, Bob Belvedere, Stacy, Pj Tatler, it’s snowballing! Rule one, don’t be stupid in the internet age.

We’re just a few days away from the election in CA-36 and I STILL haven’t heard back from the Janice Hahn campaign concerning my inquiries. Since they can’t pick up a phone I will ask these questions publicly and they can answer in comments

1. Did anyone in the Hahn campaign or affiliated with the Hahn campaign have any contact with Hacker Jerod LyCett and if so what was the nature of said contact?

2. Did anyone in the Hahn campaign or affiliated with the Hahn campaign have any knowledge of the gasoline/lighter incident at TRUSA?

3. Is the Hahn campaign aware of any connection to the gasoline/lighter threat and any person involved in the “gang program” highlighted by the TRUSA rap video?

4. Will the Hahn campaign publicly condemn the apparent threat against the members of TRUSA and call on LA police and law enforcement to do their utmost to locate, prosecute and convict those responsible.

These frankly should be all “gimmie” questions for any campaign. I would have been pleased to ask them directly to an official spokesman for the Hahn campaign.

Meanwhile at Three Beers Later via a tweet from Stacy we find out the following:

the local GOP is racing to replace the thousands of Huey yard signs vandalized by Hahn operatives.

Remember this is a candidate that has outspent Republican Craig Huey 10-1 in a district that if it was any more democratic the Donkey would be the primary mode of transportation.

Does this appear to be the sound of a winning campaign to you?

If you are in CA-36 ask yourself this question: Do I want a person in congress so weak that they can’t stand up to questions from a national blogger? I would say “tough questions” but they’re not.

Remember, in a representative government you always get the government you deserve.

Question: How effective has Turn Right USA and their ads and videos against the Janice Hahn campaign?

From the Examiner:

Ms. Hahn has received over a million dollars in campaign contributions, almost entirely from unions and individual contributors who receive taxpayer dollars.

On the other hand, Mr. Huey’s individual contributors have donated $144,210 – Over 1/3 of which are from individual contributors whose contributions are less than the FEC’s itemization threshold.

So consider she has spent over a million dollars to win a seat where in an open primary 75% of the voters cast went for democrats.

Only $44 in the black? She should take lessons from Herman Cain. What an absolutely perfect illustration of the choice for the voters of the district!

Meanwhile Stacy McCain documents where all the money has gone.

I’ve always thought that when you are far ahead you speak about the positives for your candidate rather than the negatives of a relatively unknown opponent, this looks like a candidate who is running scared.

Speaking of running scared the Hahn campaign has not responded by e-mail or phone to my inquiries concerning either the Hacking of Turn Right USA or the death threats against them. One would think that it would be an easy thing for a woman running for congress to say something like this:

“Neither I, nor my campaign nor anyone involved in it has any connection to either the Hacking Attack on the Turn Right USA site (a federal offense) nor the death threats against members of Turn Right USA and we condemn both the hacking and the death threats without equivocation”

The fact that such a statement hasn’t come out of the Hahn campaign speaks volumes.

If Craig Huey wins the election next week then he will owe Turn Right USA a debt of gratitude for their unsolicited help.

I talked to Ladd Ehlinger just before the release of his sequel to his initial video The Bunker and again this morning.

DaTechGuy: Ladd why the Hitler motif for the follow-up video?

Ladd Ehlinger: It’s a funny genre, and a way to get the pitch seen by people who aren’t into politics but into comedy

DTG: I noticed you altered the genre slightly, you added an additional scene from the picture.

LE: Yes that scene actually comes later in the movie but it fit very well. The way Hahn reacted to the first video reminded me of Frau Gobbels in the movie.

DTG: This must have been a lot less expensive?

LE: Yes. The “Downfall” craze made things much easier.

DTG: How do you expect the Hahn campaign to react?

LE: They’ve smartened up a bit and are ignoring it. Nancy Pelosi got involved. That’s okay. I have plans.

DTG: The Colbert report play of the first video must have been very welcome?

LE: When we made the video we actually had him in mind. We were disappointed to see him drop the ball at first.

DTG: Did it add much for hits etc.?

LE: Only about 10k views. Colbert doesn’t have that many viewers as people think. His main audience is the MSM, but its good that he did it. I’m sure he got a note from Nancy. “What’s the matter with you, Stephen? Didn’t you get the memo to ignore Ladd?”

DTG: What do you think about him forming and being granted his PAC?

LE: He is coming from a different direction, I am a libertarian and that’s where I’m coming from, for Colbert it is one big collectivist parody about how evil these PACS are, that they should be even more regulated. I think the whole structure should come down and people should be able to participate in politics however they want without the FEC hanging around. Screw McCain-Feingold! But if Colbert wants tips on how to make a viral video I’d be happy to help direct one starring him.

DTG: It certainly can’t hurt when it comes down to TRUSA’s national stature with potential donors or customers?

LE: That’s very true.

DTG: In the “Bunker” video you stress the “Socialist” motif.

LE: Yes, it’s to remind people that these people are socialists, Hahn, Obama, Pelosi and Soros. This is their belief system. They want to impose their collectivist beliefs on us.

DTG: Looking back on what happened with the first video, you had a hacker attack your site, you had a death threat with gasoline and a lighter what has been the reaction from the Hahn campaign?

LE: Nothing, apparently they don’t think it’s important that their supporters are doing this kind of thing.

DTG: I’ve called their campaign twice and gotten no answers or return, I would think the “We have no involvement” would be the easiest thing for a campaign to do.

LE: You would think.

DTG: What has the initial response been to the video on Popmodel?

LE: It’s done well but we haven’t pushed it like the other one. Not yet. Pelosi has injected herself in the campaign and DNC spokesmen have been hinting to the Hahn campaign that the best way to deal with us is to ignore us. The absentee ballot figures show it worked, though.

DTG: In what way?

LE: Well there have been 30,125 absentee ballots turned in so far. We don’t know what the votes are but there is only a 628 ballot advantage between democratic ballots turned in vs Republicans.

DTG: that’s got to be panicking these people!

LE: Yes, this is Venice Beach, and keep this in mind, my initial ad went out at the same time as the absentee ballots were mailed. It’s had an effect. I don’t know if it will be enough. But they’re scared.

DTG: Have you seen any other signs of this?

LE: Well there is the Argonaut piece that they took down.

DTG: Tell me about that.

LE: The Argonaut put up a puff piece on Hahn and I had a long e-mail exchange with the author. I questioned him on it and within two hours after I posted our exchange on the TRUSA site, they took down the puff piece! It leads me to conclude that Hahn got free advertising from the Argonaut or she paid them for it.

DTG: Why do you think they took it down?

LE: Because it is a potential FCC violation. But they actual printed the story so it’s actually too late for it to be “evaporated” like Hahn’s gangster issue.

DTG: Let’s change subjects what do you think of the GOP field.

LE: I’m still thinking about Michelle Bachmann and perhaps Rick Perry but all of them are collectivists to one degree or another.

DTG: Despite this is there any person in the GOP field that would prompt you to stay home or vote for Obama?

LE: No because slow collectivism is better than hyper collectivism. I voted for McCain because he’s a collectivist in need of viagra, as opposed to Obama, who’s much more aggressive.

DTG: As an admaker Have you seen anything so far that has gone out on the air that is what you would consider a good or effective ad?

LE: No because they’re all wussies. The difference between me and all the other ad guys is I don’t care if I’m hired for the 2nd ad, I’m out to make the most effective ad I can.

DTG: Rush Limbaugh says that we (the right) make a mistake in trying to make the left and the media like us. Is he correct?

EH: He is absolutely right, we should laugh at them, ridicule them and expose them as the tyrannical slave mongers that they are.

DTG: Slave mongers?

EH: The left believes that the man exists to serve the state. When you exist to serve the state you become a slave and those who seek to run the collective are slave mongers.

DTG: Are you personally or does the PAC have something in particular you want to hit when this election is over?

LE: Yes, I’d like to do something on healthcare.

DTG: Considering what we’ve seen so far, should we expect any surprises from you as the campaign in CA36 nears its end?

LE: You should always expect surprises from me.

DTG: Since your initial video the GOP has gotten involved in this race that was considered impossible. What are the lessons from this for the GOP and for candidates?

LE: The idea is to fight, you don’t need to fight with a gold Rolex, you can fight asymmetrically and make them react.

DTG: Ladd Thanks again.

LE: Anytime!

Stephen Colbert decided in his running gag about forming his own PAC to highlight both Turn Right USA and their initial Janice Hahn video. (Note I am breaking my own rule concerning this ad because it is only a brief clip within the Colbert Report.)

His own priorities not withstanding thanks to Colbert, the play count for the ad and the hit count for Turn Right USA should soar. I’m sure the Hahn campaign will love the attention. In fact let’s take a look at what happens when you search for “Janice Hahn” on Youtube as of 7 a.m. this morning EST:

Count da hits

Count the hits, that adds up to 700,000+ including the MSNBC report which played the entire ad. That’s sure to keep people unacquainted with the charges in the ad.

And it gets worse for Hahn. If you look at the top 10 results only two of them are not directly speaking to the ad and one of those is the initial news report that the ad is based on.

Now I object to the ad because I consider it (and still do) sexist and I don’t care for the language, but idea that Stephen “I’m whiter than wonder bread” Colbert is accusing two black rappers of racism against blacks is rather interesting.

At least one of the rappers in question Uncle Head, objected on twitter.

:

Loudly:

Splack Pack btw is the name of the Rap group in the video.

So the end result of all of this is:

A whole new set of people not acquainted with the ad or the charges have been introduced to it.

The primary association for Janice Hahn on YouTube is this video.

Turn Right USA has been granted instant national credibility by one of the left’s attack organs and will likely result in an influx of contributions

And of course I’m sure the both the Hahn campaign and Turn Right USA are absolutely thrilled that Colbert has done this the day after Turn Right USA released this follow-up video:

With a 75%-25% advantage D vs R in the primary, the odds of Hahn losing her special election in CA-36 are long, but she is damaged and democrats have been forced to use resources, including money and national airtime to counter that damage. What do you think will happen if Ladd Ehlinger and/or Turn right USA is turned loose on a closer campaign?

If the left is not worried, they ought to be, and if Ehlinger wasn’t stopped by death threats like this, what will they end up doing next?

Update: Colbert was granted his PAC by the government today on two votes 6-0 & 5-1. Turn Right USA couldn’t buy this kind of publicity.

Turn Right USA has a new entry in the HahnsHomeboyz video collection from a genre that you might be familiar with

Personally I think the “Downfall” collection has been done to death but I love the reminder of that it was National Socialism not National Capitalism

We can expect to see the condemnations from the Hahn campaign any minute I’m sure