I’ve already written about the insanity of the left’s outrage concerning John Kasich’s suggestion to a college girl that attending drunken college parties might be hazardous to her health and well being.
I’d like to follow up with a single question to the media providing outraged coverage of of it by all the major Democrats with Bylines mainstream media shocked that anyone might advise a young lady to avoid a physical risk that involves alcohol:

“Would you be offended by John Kasich or anyone else advising a young woman not to get into a car being driven by a person who has been drinking at a college party because of the dangers? Would that constitute ‘blaming the victim’? If not why not?”

Think about it.

Apparently, college rape epidemic not withstanding to Democrats When it comes to the War on Women Chalk is much more dangerous that a Drunken Frat guy at a party.

What else can we conclude from this story:

Republican presidential hopeful John Kasich today told a female college student concerned about “sexual violence, harassment and rape” that she should not “go to parties where there’s a lot of alcohol.”

The first-year student asked Kasich at a town hall in Watertown, New York, what he would “do in office as president to help me feel safer and more secure regarding sexual violence, harassment, and rape?”

Kasich, the governor of Ohio, spoke about empowering victims by ensuring access to confidential reporting and rape kits. “You ought to absolutely know that if something happens to you along the lines of sexual harassment or whatever,” he said.

His suggestion to avoid drunken college parties has produced this from Democrats

Democrats pounced on Kasich’s response. “Republican presidential candidates like John Kasich and Donald Trump are insulting women everyday [sic] on the campaign trail by blaming victims of sexual and domestic violence,” a spokeswoman for the Democratic National Committee, Christina Freundlich, said in a statement.

Meanwhile Chalk is still banned at DePaul and our friends on the left are down with it.

So to sum up:

For our friends on the left, writing “trump 2016” in chalk on the sidewalk creates such an unsafe environment that it must be stopped at all costs (thus making Milo’s Yiannopoulos Emory chalking a story) , BUT a presidential candidate advising a young women concerned about her safety on campus that avoiding drunken parties is a good idea is an act so outrageous that it’s worth frienzied media coveraged by ABC, the Guardian,Slate, Politico, CNN and a bunch of leftiest bloggers.

After all how can we even think about worrying about drunken parties when there are still people with chalk walking free on any campus?

If you want to know why some of us thought the culture war was worth fighting, this is it.

Closing Thought If Animal House took place in 2016 instead of 1962 right now Otter and company would be checking the facebook profiles of all the leftists outraged over Kasich to find out if any of them have daughters at or near Faber college for their party email blast…

…and Dean Wormer would plotting to confiscate their chalk.

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This is the week of opening day and right now no matter how bad a start a team might have fans across the nation have hope that when the calendar turns to September their team will be in the hunt for a playoff spot.

The reality of course is that only five teams in each league will be in the post season, 3 division winners and two wild card teams, one of which will eliminated after a single playoff game. Thus for most teams and cities disappointment will be the rule.

To put this in perspective these are the games scheduled for September 28th 2016

Mariners vs Astros 2:10 PM
D-backs vs Nationals 7:05 PM
Red Sox vs Yankees 7:05 PM
Cubs vs Pirates 7:05 PM
Orioles vs Blue Jays 7:07 PM
Indians vs Tigers 7:10 PM
Mets vs Marlins 7:10 PM
Phillies vs Braves 7:10 PM
Twins vs Royals 7:15 PM
Brewers vs Rangers 8:05 PM
Rays vs White Sox 8:10 PM
Reds vs Cardinals 8:15 PM
Athletics vs Angels 10:05 PM
Dodgers vs Padres 10:10 PM
Rockies vs Giants 10:15 PM

By the time these games are played many if not most of the teams playing will be eliminated from playoff contention. Furthermore it is very likely that several teams who are fighting for a playoff birth will find themselves playing against teams that are mathematically eliminated.

Now ask yourself his question: How would you react if the teams who were eliminated simply decided to forfeit their games rather than play them?

After all, they have no chance of winning and their opponents do? Isn’t it unfair that they are taking away potential wins from a team that actually can do something for them? Is it unfair to the fans of the teams still in contention that these cellar dwelling teams might thwart their chances to advance?

Of course such a person making that argument would be laughed out of the park. You are only entitled to a win over an opponent no matter how weak. If you want that “W” you have to finish the game with more runs. Remember even the worst team in modern history the 1962 Mets, managed to win 40 games.

And that brings us to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.

Both Donald Trump and my guy Ted Cruz have argued that John Kasich should drop out of the race for the GOP nomination on the grounds that he has no mathematical chance to get to 1237 delegates, but more importantly both Trump and Cruz have argued the Kasich is taking votes away from them.

That argument is nonsense.

It’s true that if Kasich wasn’t in the race and people had to choose between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz potential Kasich voters would likely choose one or the other. And if Kasich chooses to leave the race, I’d be quite delighted.

But those votes don’t “belong” to Donald Trump or Ted Cruz or even to John Kasich. Those votes belong to the voter who is casting them.

And if Mr. Trump or Senator Cruz wants the votes of people inclined to support Governor Kasich, they, like a team looking to earn a playoff spot has to earn them.

And that’s how it should be.
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Yesterday’s GOP debate proved several things.

The GOP can do substance, there were good questions and answers and while there were several tough blows they were all within the bounds of propriety.

It also proved what I’ve said that Trump can do substance.

There were solid difference between the candidates and they were highlighted very well but without the circus did people keep watching or change the channel.

I think Ted Cruz made the best point of the night in saying that Donald Trump has correctly identified the problems but his solutions are off. It’s the only way in my opinion to win over potential Trump voters.

Rubio had a good debate and it answered the question on Rubio pulling out before Florida (no chance).

Kasich did OK but oddly nobody seems to be leaning on him to pull out even though he has won two less races than Rubio. He is what he is and in normal year would be a valid consideration.

But the winner of the Debate was Donald Trump. Not because he gave good answers (he did) Not because he stayed on the offensive on Islam (He did) and not because he sold he lie on Ted Cruz being for Amnesty with a straight face

No he won because he was the leader and anything that doesn’t stop the guy in the lead helps him.

The biggest loser is whoever hosts the next debate because while this debate likely got ratings, if the next one is like this, it may not.

Closing thought, we’ve had a Debate in Ohio, we’ve had one in Texas and now in florida, will they have on in NYC so Trump can get home field advantage once?

Update: Ed Morrissey nails John Kasich:

Kasich stood out in the last debate because he didn’t take part in the personal-insult circus. In this debate, with everyone focusing on substance, Kasich didn’t stand out at all.

The reason for his campaign kinda melts doesn’t it?

I’ve written several posts on the current electoral situation in the GOP  and noticed some of the statements of the various campaigns that are completely divorced from reality when it comes to dealing with Donald Trump.

Furthermore on twitter, but not yet on the blog I’ve hit the absolutely stupidity of Mitt Romney’s attack on Donald Trump’s taxes, which echos the dishonorable attacks that Harry Reid used on him.  On that subject I think Stacy McCain’s point from 2012 that I quoted in this post applies:

What I believe is this: Whatever Harry Reid knows about Mitt Romney’s taxes, he obtained from Democrat Party sources who, in turn, got it via the leaking of this confidential information from IRS officials to individuals affiliated with the Obama campaign.

Reid is lying — mischaracterizing his sources — to conceal the fact that the Obama campaign has illegally obtained Romney’s IRS forms.

But don’t expect me to prove that accusation. I don’t think the burden should be on me. The burden should be on Harry Reid. He’s the one I’ve alleged is part of a Nixonian conspiracy at the White House. Why didn’t Harry identify his sources?

In fact the only thing more outrageous than Romney’s attack on Trump’s taxes based on zero evidence is Harry Reid attacking him for it (I’m not kidding)

But for all this nonsense there problem remains: How do you beat Donald Trump?  Right now that’s the only question on the floor and if your candidate isn’t thinking along those lines, he’s not serious and needs to drop out.

The only way to do this is to either bring in new voters for yourself but none of the candidates have the reach to the general public that Trump has so that’s not practicable, the other way is to discourage Donald Trump voters from voting, I don’t see that working either since any attack on Trump simply angers the Trump voter and produces attacks that are not easily countered given his social media reach.

That leaves only one other card. Somehow Make the case to the Donald Trump voter to vote for you instead.

While this is a longshot it is the only viable plan short of the GOP changing it’s convention rules, to stop Trump. You need to persuade these voters that not only are you with them but you’ve been with them since day 1.

On it’s face this seems ridiculous and for Marco Rubio it would be.  His embrace of the gang of 8 makes it impossible and for John Kasich his embrace of obamacare makes it doubly so.  Ben Carson might be able to try such a pitch but he can’t make a case any different than Mr. Trump can.

However  there is one candidate who actually is in a position to make this case. In fact he is in perfect position to do so.

That man is Ted Cruz.

Here’s how.

At tonight’s debate when invited to attack Donald Trump, and believe me CNN will,  Ted Cruz should say something along these lines.

“Actually rather than attack Donald Trump I’d like to thank him. He has energized thousands of new GOP voters, voters who are tired of the party ignoring them on Amnesty, ignoring them on Obamacare, ignoring them on Radical Islam and Ignoring them on Common Core. Mr. Trump has talked about these issues and they have entered the national conversation.”

“And I thank him again for it again, because for years I have been in Washington fighting tirelessly to stop Amnesty so I’m pleased to see Donald Trump adding his words to my actions, for years I have been in Washington fighting tirelessly to defund and stop Obamacare and I’m pleased to see Donald Trump add his words to support my actions, for years I’ve been in Washington fighting tirelessly to get this administration to acknowledge the danger and reality of radical Islam and I’m pleased to see Donald Trump add his voice to support my fight and for years I’ve been making the fight in Washington against Common Core and I’m simply delighted to have Donald Trump add his words to support my fight.

And to those new voters who want to make America Great again, who are angry about Obamacare, Amnesty, Common Core and worried about radical islam I say to you your fight is the one I’ve been fighting for years. Donald Trump’s words are great and I’m pleased to hear them, but if you want someone in the White House that has actually fought these fights that you care about. I ask you for your vote.”

Furthermore every single time Donald Trump brings up these issues in the debate Ted Cruz should affirm these issues that Trump raising AND point to the solid steps that he Ted Cruz has done to achieve them.

I suggest that this is the right way to go for several reasons:

1. It complements Donald Trump for raising these issues that other candidates are ducking
2. It affirms the voters who have come out for Trump noting that their concerns are valid rather than attacking them
3. It brings up Ted Cruz’s record on all of these issues, a record that is superior to all the Non-Trump candidates
4. It notes the difference between Talking about an issue, and DOING something bout an issue
5. It does all of these things without actually attacking Trump.
6. It’s an honest and straightforward case as opposed to the Romney tax BS

I don’t deny this is a going to be a tough sell, but until anyone else comes up with a better way to attract the Donald Trump voters I submit and suggest this is the best plan out there and frankly better than anything an expensive consultant is throwing out there.  And if anyone has a better plan I’d be delighted to hear it.

Good Luck.

Update: At the Weekly Standard (via Insty) they are thinking differently

In his indispensible newsletter, the Transom, Ben Domenech makes a profound observation about tonight’s debate: The best way to become the “Not Trump,” is to beat Trump. And the way to beat him isn’t to argue that he’s a meanie or detail his ideological inconsistencies. It’s to go full-alpha and nuke him from orbit.

I don’t think that will play with Trump voters myself

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Ok We’ve now had three primaries and my man Ted Cruz has won 1, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd once.  A pretty good record so far.  In baseball that would be a .333 avg.

Marco Rubio who is being celebrated by the pundits and the party as the man to watch has one 2nd place finish and one 3rd place finish and a 5th.  And for all of the glowing words of his supporters he has yet to win a race (somebody should write a song about that)

John Kasich has managed one 2nd place victory and hasn’t done better than 5th anywhere else.

And Ben Carson has not finished higher than 4th.

Yet right now all the talk on the cable news and in the media seems to be:

 How the GOP establishment is rallying around Marco Rubio 

How the party is trying to talk Kasich into puling out to enable Rubio

How the party is trying to keep Ben Carson in to counter Ted Cruz

All of this seems to ignore a simple fact:  Donald Trump

In three contests thus far Donald Trump has won two of them and came in 2nd in the other.

 

If Mr. Trump did not run and Jeb Bush had done this everyone would have declared the race over.

If Mitt Romney had done this in 2012 the pundits would have declared the GOP race over.

Yet the only thing anyone seems to be talking about is which guy is going to take Trump out.

This is ridiculous.

Donald Trump is the front-runner.  He has not only won two contests out of three but more importantly after losing the first contest that he was expected to win was able to learn from it and make the necessary adjustments.

Furthermore he has been winning by increasing GOP turnout to record levels bringing in new voters anxious to hear his two primary messages:

No Amnesty

Stopping Radical Islam

These two primary messages have overshadowed gaffes and contradictions that would have doomed a less popular candidate, but Trump’s base and audience are larger than the media which would dearly love to destroy him and beyond the reach of the GOP establishment which has no influence on the people who support him.

These are the facts and no amount of wishful thinking, establishment endorsements or optimistic spin will change it.

So what IS being done to change it?

From Ben Carson?  Little or nothing.  In an open primary was unable to persuade large amounts of the black electorate to cross over to support him, and unless he has some kind of secret weapon up his sleeve his campaign has no prayer of winning anywhere let alone stopping trump.

From John Kasich?  Not much more.  He isn’t even trying in most of the upcoming states and seems to be staking his hopes on Ohio but doesn’t have the cash or the backing to get anywhere.

From Marco Rubio?  His plan seems to be to keep pretending he’s winning even when he doesn’t under the assumption that he has a divine right to the votes of candidates as they drop out which will eventually raise him over Trump but until he proves he can win somewhere anywhere, all of Rubio’s talk mean nothing.

Only my guy Ted Cruz has managed to beat Trump at least once and has continued to attack him using his Trump own words and actions to illustrate him as not a reliable conservative, however even with his strong forward thinking ground game his attacks are blunted by Trump’s ability to attract voters who are not interested in conservative principles.

But if any of them plan on beating Donald Trump they will need to do two things:

Admit that Donald Trump is currently leading:

Adapt their campaigns to deal with Mr. Trumps success.

Reality is what it is and until you admit to reality, you can’t change it.

And the Clock is ticking

 

I was laid off this week from my 3rd shift job so my plan to use said job to pay the mortgage while using the site to get out of debt in a couple of years is out the window unless we suddenly get 125 subscribers at $10 a month. When I say I could use a hand right now I’m not kidding. (We picked up the equivalent of 6 such subscribers this weekend 119 more @$10 a month to go)

Since we all know the rosey description of the Obama economy by the MSM is BS to those who have kicked in (particularly subscribers), thanks much.

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Yesterday I talked about the media narrative and how, no matter what the result, the narrative would already be in place.

Anyone who watched the coverage yesterday and today can recognize this.

 

Just a week ago, we were told by the talking heads that Donald Trump’s 2nd place finish by 4 pts was a crushing defeat that it brought questions about if Mr. Trump was for real.  At the same time Marco Rubio’s 3rd place finish was the sign that his time had come, the media was all Rubio all the time.  Endorsements poured in and Marco mentum was the rule of the day.

Not so Ben Carson whose 4th place was an afterthought, nor Ted Cruz whose actual victory seemed to mean nothing because NH is different kettle of fish (do people put fish in a kettle)?

 

Well now we’ve seen NH and we’ve learned some interesting things.

 While finishing 2nd place by 4 pts is a crushing defeat in Iowa in NH 2nd place by 18 points is a great victory that can propel a candidate to the upper tier of the GOP field even if said candidate didn’t manage to crack 10% in Iowa.

We learned that while 3rd place by 2 pts in Iowa is an incredible finish that gives a candidate momentum 3rd place in NH by 4 point is no big deal even in a state where you aren’t expected to do well.

We’ve further learned that while 4th place in Iowa is not even worth mentioning 4th place in NH revives a campaign and guarantees a candidate can go on even if that 4th place finish is the best said candidate has done so far.

And most odd of all we’ve seen that a first place finish by a wide margin is less newsworthy than finishing 2nd.

How can this be?  Well it’s very simple.

For the MSM Jeb Bush and John Kasich are the most liberal members of the GOP field supporting Obamacare, Common Core & Illegal Immigration and thus the easiest for Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders to defeat, therefore any meme that potentially advances their chances to get the GOP nomination is to be given the full force of the msm.

Ted Cruz opposes all of those things, thus in Iowa his 1st place finish is eclipsed by Marco Rubio and his 3rd place finish is eclipsed by Jeb Bush because under no circumstances shall any scenario that advances his candidacy be advanced.

Finally while the media absolutely hates Donald Trump they fear Ted Cruz.  Therefore while they will downplay Trump’s win for now they will hold their fire under the assumption that it might come down to Trump vs Cruz and in that case they will go all in for the Donald.

Never forget that the media’s stories are already written, it’s only a question of shoehorning the facts to fit them.

 

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I remain in bed, unable to stand for more than a few minutes with my head spinning and unable to hold down even dry cereal.

The irony is that these symptoms which are considered normal in the aftermath aftermath of my illness could go on for months and continue to cost me days of work that I can’t afford to miss.

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If anyone tells you that they know what’s going to happen today in NH they are full of it.

However while the actual results of the evening are totally up in the air, the MSM memes for today are completely predictable.

DONALD TRUMP:


If Donald wins this by more than 10 pts

MSM will start talking inevitably and declare that only the #2 finisher (unless it’s Ted Cruz) has a prayer to stop him and the talk will be if the establishment decides to go all in.

If Donald trump wins by less that 10 pts (my best guess)

MSM meme will be Trump is vulnerable and MSM will extol the virtues of any 2nd or 3rd place finisher not named Ted Cruz as the alternative to Trump.

If Trump loses to any person not named Ted Cruz.

Said person will be lionized and the Trump campaign declared a paper tiger, they will really cheer if it’s a Bush or Kasich.

If Trump loses to Ted Cruz

Mass Seppuku among members of the MSM and the Party will go all out to push whoever is 2nd.

TED CRUZ

See above if he wins

If Cruz finishes in 2nd or 3rd.

Media will pretend he doesn’t exist and will push the other 2nd or 3rd place finisher , if he gets 3rd by less that 2 pts they’ll push the 4th place person as advancing too.

If Cruz finishes 4th or below , even by one vote

MSM will treat him as a one trick pony and pretend his national campaign is doomed.

 

MARCO RUBIO

If Rubio finishes 2nd or 3rd

He will  be pushed as he alternative to Donald Trump unless a governor finishes 2nd then Rubio will be hit as a guy on the decline.

If Rubio finishes 5th or below

He will be written off by the MSM

 

JEB BUSH, JOHN KASICH, CHRIS CHRISTIE (who can tell the difference anymore?)

 

If any one of them finish in 2nd -4th

Said candidate will be dubbed the “Winner” of NH Establishment primary which will be treated as more important than actually winning..  If more than 1 finishes in the top 4 both will be cheered.

If the finish is 2nd place said candidate will be treated  as if they actual won NH even if they are 20+ pts behind the winner.

Any finish by a gov below 4th and said candidate will be told it’s time to go.

Note Jeb Bush will be treated as if he finished one level ahead of whatever spot he finishes at.

BEN CARSON

Unless he finishes 4th or above he will be totally ignored except to blame Ted Cruz for said finish.

MSM will do their best to keep Carson in the race in the hope that he will hurt Ted Cruz in the south.

 

CARLY FIORINA

Unless she finishes top 4 MSM will say it’s time to go.  If she finishes top 4 with Cruz and Rubio may become de facto Establishment alternative

 

JIM GILMORE

If he finishes about any other candidate it will be treated as  a victory.  If he does not then he’ll tweet out that he’s now in the top 5-8 depending on how many candidates drop out.

MY PREDICTION:  The only candidate that drops out post NH is Chris Christie unless Kasich finishes 6th then he’ll consider it.

 

The Democrats:

BERNIE SANDERS

If Sanders wins by less that 15 points.

MSM will treat result as a great Clinton Comeback and Bill will talk about Hillary as the 2nd coming of the comeback kid.  If it’s single digits it will be considered the Clinton miracle.

If Sanders wins by 15+

Bloomberg is in, Biden is maybe in and Hillary & Bill launch an all out campaign to destroy him that will make the attacks at Ken Starr look like nothing.

 

HILLARY CLINTON

If somehow Hillary Clinton wins

It’s all over for Bernie & the FBI investigation

 

The chances of Hillary being indicted are directly related to how well she does.

My best guess (Bernie by 12)

 

All of this is fun but remember this above all:

 

The actual results are secondary to the the meme the MSM wants to push, those have already been determined.  The only question is will the results allow those memes to be credible.

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Today my plan had been to take a day off of work, head to NH, visit some polling places and finish at the Ted Cruz event in Hollis.

Instead I’m in bed, unable to stand for more than a few minutes with my head spinning and unable to hold down even dry cereal.

The irony is that these symptoms which are considered normal in the aftermath aftermath of my illness could go on for months and continue to cost me days of work that I can’t afford to miss.

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When viewed in an inertial reference frame, an object either remains at rest or continues to move at a constant velocity, unless acted upon by an external force

Newton’s 1st law of Motion

Lyndon Johnson’s loss had been due a political fluke. He had been beaten not by his opponent’s friends but by his opponent’s foes. 

Lyndon Johnson the Path to Power

A few days ago I saw a piece concerning Iowa that crunched the numbers in Iowa that suggest Donald Trump is going to have more trouble than he thinks in Iowa.

Really, so in order to justify Trump’s lead, somehow 50,000 more caucus attendees will have to show up and vote for Trump than have ever shown up before. Trump has 12 paid staffers in Iowa, led by Tana Goetz, a 48-year-old former runner up on “The Apprentice.” Wow, what raw horsepower.

He contrasts that to Ted Cruz:

Cruz has over 1,000 precinct chairs, a 240-plus person leadership team and over 5,000 volunteers in every one of Iowa’s 99 counties (all of which Cruz has pledged to visit before the caucuses, and it looks like he’ll make it happen). They’re led by seasoned professionals such as Jake Dagel, who was field director for Turning Point USA.

It’s a devastating  analysis but it overlooks one very important thing, and that’s strategic voting

While the GOP doesn’t have the same process as the dems who can, if the supporters of a candidate can’t get enough people to go with them to advance go with another candidate, it’s going to be very apparent very early if an attendee’s candidate has a shot in their district.

When that happens then it will be time for voters to decide:  “Do I stick with my guy or do I think strategically?”

Think if you are a Jeb Bush, or a Chris Christie, or a John Kasich guy.  Your man isn’t going to win Iowa, you likely won’t even finish in the top 3.  What is your game plan to win the nomination?

If you’re Jeb Bush guy, you need to be the last non-Trump man standing.  So you have to stop Ted Cruz.

If you’re Chris Christie or John Kasich you have to finish in the top 3 in NH, you aren’t likely to stop Donald Trump there so you have to stop Ted Cruz.

You’re Carly Fiorina, Trump is a perfect foil for your campaign, Ted Cruz is not so you have to stop Ted Cruz.

and it’s not just establishment types thinking this;

You’re a Mike Huckabee or a Rick Santorum supporter, your only prayer (assuming you have one) is to cancel out the one guy who has taken the votes you won with in 2008  & 2012 so that you can win in the south so you have to stop Ted Cruz.

You are Ben Carson voter, you know your man who has the potential to attract voters in the south who might normally not vote in a GOP primary but you have to get to those primaries with a campaign still alive so you have to stop Ted Cruz.

Your Rand Paul voter, you can’t allow libertarians to be looking for another principled alternative so you have to stop Ted Cruz.

The only candidate with a disincentive to this is Marco Rubio, the NYT not withstanding he needs to keep his guys in line to keep himself viable, a fight between him and Cruz diminishes his rivals and increases him, he needs is folks to boost his numbers at all costs.

Now you might say:  “But Datechguy Iowa is a big conservative state what makes you think there are enough establishment votes to save Iowa for Trump”

My answer.  Mitt lost Iowa by only 8 votes and those Mitt guys are all in for Bush  stopping Cruz.

Bottom line, with the exception of Marco Rubio every single other candidate has an incentive to stop Ted Cruz from winning Iowa, even if it gives the win to Trump.

Trump doesn’t need 50,000 extra voters to show up at the caucus to win, he simply needs enough voters to put the other candidates voters in a spot where they have a pragmatic choice between helping Trump win or helping letting Cruz win.

That is Donald Trump’s secret weapon and don’t think for one moment he doesn’t know it.

P.S.  You’ll not that I didn’t include Jim Gilmore with all due respect for the former gov of VA why would I?

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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

OK I’ve had a few hours to sleep on it and here are my debate takeaways.

Winner:  Main Debate Rand Paul:  Despite not having much time in the early rounds won two segments.  Made strong cases for everything he believed and sold his positions well.  Accomplished everything he needed to do, the only question is do people agree with those positions.

Winner: First Debate Lindsey Graham:  Memorable lines , humor and again made the case first for a ground war against isis, the single most important issue for the future of the country and for pressing the Obama administration in the senate.

Graham will get a small bump because he’s polling so low with Paul it’s harder because he’s making cases for things that many in the base disagree with.

Five interesting points.  

My two “winners”  are both people I disagree with.

Not only were there no bad debate performances in either debate but there was an awful lot of substance in them (particularly in debate 1)

The debate was specifically designed to promote confrontation .  It did and the candidates made the most of them.  I’m sure to the ratings delight of CNN

While it was a very long night for the Candidates it was even longer for the moderators who did an excellent job.

There wasn’t a person on either stage (even the ones I disagree with) that didn’t make themselves more credible it was like a convention of British Sea Captains from the Napoleonic Wars

 

Let’s go through the candidates starting with debate 2 in sort of the order of how they did.

Marco Rubio:  2nd place  Did exactly what he had to do, got noticed, had memorable moments and made excellent cases over an over.  Gave donors a reason to stay.

Carly Fiorina:  Completely justified her promotion to the main debate stage in a situation where he needed to do so.  Strong answers, and played to the MSM expectations and brought up the Planned Parenthood videos which will play very strongly to the base.

Chris Christie:  Reminded every conservative in the country why he was so popular before and used his time wisely.

Mike Huckabee:  Every chance he got she knocked it out of the part and really did a great job on the Kim Davis question noting the accommodations for Islamic Terrorists vs a Christian Clerk.

Jeb Bush:  A slow start but showed energy and reassured the donor class that was worried with a friendly establishment audience.

Donald Trump:  Target #1 of everyone there.  Brought up two excellent points (having to be friends with everyone in business and the threat of North Korea) that had previously been ignored.  Proved he could take a punch which is an important quality in a front runner.

Ted Cruz:  Like Huckabee took good advantage of every chance he had to talk, if he had been given the chance to make his climate change response might have been able to win.

Scott Walker:  May have saved his campaign by coming back strong

Ben Carson:  Gave good answers but criticized for being low key.  But that’s how he is.

John Kasich:  The least memorable performance of the night, yet still a good one, seemed kind of a poor man’s Lindsey Graham.

Debate 1:

Rick Santorum:  A very strong performance, made the best case for a min wage hike (I disagree there) that I’ve heard so far.

Bobby Jindal:  Really strong appeal to the base, very energetic again did the job he needed to do getting noticed.

George Pataki:  Had the single best hit on Hillary in either debate noting that she was a Senator from NY the target of terror attacks and still did what she did.

Short Term:  Tactical results:

Who was helped the most last night?  Carly Fiorina, she realized right away what the pundits were looking for & gave it to them.  Lots of credibility.

Who was hurt the most last night?  Ben Carson, the media has spun this as a defeat even though he is presenting himself the same as he always was.  The media template is to give Carly the push at his expense.

Long Term Strategic results:

Who was helped the most long term?  Donald Trump:  Not only did he dominate time and prove he could take every punch thrown at him but because nobody did bad enough to be eliminated that guarantees the vote will remain divided.  The longer that’s true the bigger advantage he has.

Who was hurt the most last night?  John Kasich:  Not because he did bad, he didn’t but because Jeb Bush did better and he is the establishment Bush fallback position.

A much longer post is coming about:

The flexible 14th amendment Kim Davis  Birthright citizenship

Ironic moment of the night:  Jeb Bush hits Kim Davis for not obeying nonexistent federal law while insisting he would not hit Colorado for ignoring explicit federal drug laws.

Most significant post debate moment:  Frank Luntz group, nobody in the group said Ted Cruz won but every single person in the group was impressed by him.  Continues to play the long game.

Am I the only one who noticed….The post debate interview with Donald Trump where he talks about getting to know his opponents.  I think it was rather revealing & will affect the way he counterpunchers in the future.

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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what they’re good for.