Yesterday’s GOP debate proved several things.

The GOP can do substance, there were good questions and answers and while there were several tough blows they were all within the bounds of propriety.

It also proved what I’ve said that Trump can do substance.

There were solid difference between the candidates and they were highlighted very well but without the circus did people keep watching or change the channel.

I think Ted Cruz made the best point of the night in saying that Donald Trump has correctly identified the problems but his solutions are off. It’s the only way in my opinion to win over potential Trump voters.

Rubio had a good debate and it answered the question on Rubio pulling out before Florida (no chance).

Kasich did OK but oddly nobody seems to be leaning on him to pull out even though he has won two less races than Rubio. He is what he is and in normal year would be a valid consideration.

But the winner of the Debate was Donald Trump. Not because he gave good answers (he did) Not because he stayed on the offensive on Islam (He did) and not because he sold he lie on Ted Cruz being for Amnesty with a straight face

No he won because he was the leader and anything that doesn’t stop the guy in the lead helps him.

The biggest loser is whoever hosts the next debate because while this debate likely got ratings, if the next one is like this, it may not.

Closing thought, we’ve had a Debate in Ohio, we’ve had one in Texas and now in florida, will they have on in NYC so Trump can get home field advantage once?

Update: Ed Morrissey nails John Kasich:

Kasich stood out in the last debate because he didn’t take part in the personal-insult circus. In this debate, with everyone focusing on substance, Kasich didn’t stand out at all.

The reason for his campaign kinda melts doesn’t it?

At Instapundit there is a piece on the CNN Marco Rubio Kerfuffle that includes a quote from Mickey Kaus via Twitter:

Because it is twitter rather than his own blog we are deprived of deeper context but reading this one question instantly comes to mind:

Is it possible for the public’s expectations for the Rubio campaign to fall any lower?

Update: Rubio Rubes self identify:

Just when Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio needs them the most, big-dollar contributors from the party’s wealthy mainstream are having second thoughts about his future in the 2016 race.

That only now Rubio donors are having second thought suggest they weren’t doing much 1st thinking.

Can anyone explain how even if Rubio managed to somehow win florida voters in other states magically go to him?

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Yesterday we talked about and linked to the story of Twitter Hemorrhaging money but the more I think of it the more Twitter’s financial and publicity problems remind me of Marco Rubio.

Consider Twitter has a systemic problem of how to make money.  It’s business model depends on advertisers being willing to pay to get their ads before the eyeballs of tweeters.

So every single day advertisers see tweets like this:

and this

and this

And when we stories like this at Drudge

Liberals Turn Twitter, Facebook And Even College Campuses Into Unsafe Spaces For The Right

see power uses of twitter saying things like this:

I’ve gone off Twitter. Or, I should say, I’ve stopped being a Twitter user, and user is the right word.

It illustrates the issue. Twitter now has a reputation with conservatives who have an incentive to either leave it, ignore it or complain to advertisers.

We are rapidly reaching a point where even if Twitter reinstates Robert Stacy McCain, Disbands its safety council and offers profuse apologies to conservatives, the reputation that “Twitter is hostile to conservatives” will be ingrained and every potential company considering Twitter as a platform will be asking itself, “do I want to risk angering these people?

Once that rep is there it’s there, and I suspect Stacy holding court at CPAC will not help matters much.

Ironically that’s exactly the problem Marco Rubio has

Let’s start something that a lot of people forget. For all the stupidity of victory speeches after every loss the reality is Marco Rubio has a good record as a Senator.

He beat the horrible Charlie Crist. He has a 98% rating from the ACU, he’s been a vocal and eloquent defender of life and has stood side by side with Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and other strong conservatives on many issues and frankly if anyone told you the day he won in Florida that we’d be in an election where Marco Rubio was the establishment choice for president Tea Party Conservatives would be pumping their fists saying, We’ve won!

The problem for Marco is and remains the gang of 8.

For all of his good points Marco Rubio was a member of the gang of 8 pushing the amnesty bill. He was the face of the bill and as we’ve documented during the entire time it was pushed it was all about Marco.

And the voters have a very long memory on this issue:

“Over the last three months, Marco Rubio’s name and face and voice have been so attached to the comprehensive immigration bill that it has virtually killed any enthusiasm among Republicans in Iowa for a Rubio presidential candidacy,” said GOP State Central Committee member Jamie Johnson. “Most Republicans here now see Rubio as the amnesty candidate.”

That’s why Eric Cantor lost.

What’s really funny about this is regardless of what the MSM pretended supporting amnesty doesn’t nothing for a Latino who has an R next to their name as Gabriel Gomez demonstrated.

So let me get this straight, you have Gabriel Gomez who has a life full of achievement as a Navy Flyer, Navy Seal and businessman, who won a GOP primary with over 50% proclaiming loudly and publicly his support of the efforts of the gang of 8, and the reaction is to Question if he passes a litmus test for being Latino?

If this is how an actual Latino, a son of Colombian immigrants, a person to who English was the second language he learned what makes who supports the gang of 8 bill is treated can someone explain to me why anyone would assume Latinos will even give a hearing to the GOP if they support this bill?

And to top it off the forces of the establishment, the people who talked Rubio into joining the gang of eight in the first place are lining up to support him.

And that’s Rubio’s problem, he can make fun of Trump’s hands, he can try to spin Cruz’s amendments to the gang of eight bill, he can even make speeches about con men, the soul of the conservative movement and vow he will stay in the race all he wants.

But nothing he can do can take away the knowledge and the memory of his support for the gang of eight from GOP voters who care about it so as long as Trump is running on building the wall, Marco Rubio’s chances are practically non-existent.

That’s just the way it is and Marco Rubio can’t change it. The only question is will Twitter figure it out before they’re permanently in Rubio’s spot?

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I got a call yesterday from my old employer and much to my surprise I’ve been called by from my layoff and I’ll be back working overnights Saturday night.

That means rather than worrying about a mortgage which my job can cover I can try to pay down my debts over the next year so perhaps next year I can afford CPAC.

The goal remains the same $61 a day and I’m pleased to say we made yesterday’s goal by enough to make up for the shortfall the previous day meaning we start today with a deficit of $1285 and 21.06 days.

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Vroomfondel (?): What we demand is a total absence of solid facts, I demand that I may or may not be Vroomfondel

The Hitchhikers guide to the Galaxy

Super Tuesday is done and if there is one thing he can say for sure it’s this.

The chances of Donald Trump failing to win the GOP nomination is shrinking.

To be sure he lost Texas to my man Ted Cruz, who for good measure added Oklahoma and Alaska meaning that Cruz beat him in two states that pundits didn’t expect him to win at the start of the day.

Meanwhile Marko “wunderkind” Rubio finally got a win under his belt. Rubio managed to win Minnesota with Cruz second meaning we’ve found a state that Trump didn’t manage to come in at least second. (Of course it’s a state that the GOP hasn’t won since the Nixon Landslide of 1972 and has very little chance of winning this time but I digress).

It’s true everybody got a share of Delegates, even John Kasich who proved as NH goes so goes Vermont , but as Real Clear Politics notes (via Instapundit) Trump currently leads combined the non-trump forces in delegates. Things are looking good for him, that’s a neutral objective fact.

However if you’re not a fan of neutral objective facts, your favorite moment of the night was Jake Tapper’s interview with Marco Rubio’s which ended thus

Excuse me?

Now I share the worry that Donald Trump may not be as conservative as he claims to be and that’s why I support Ted Cruz and continue to do so.

But I’m sorry if you are going on national TV at a point when you hadn’t won any states give a victory speech and tell people that you are the guy to win it all, and then insist that you are going to stop Donald Trump, You’re the con man not he.

Cue the Hitchhikers Guide:

Perhaps Marco can catch up with Trump in 7 and a half Billion years and stay on the donor gravy train till then.

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We don’t play con games around here. I’m giving another shot at making a living by this blog and Yesterdays $14 which was $47 shy of our $61 daily goal was almost as bad a day as Marco Rubio’s

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Missy (The Master): He’s trapped at the heart of the Dalek empire. He’s a prisoner of the creatures who hate him most in the universe. Between us and him is everything the deadliest race in all of history can throw at us. We, on the other hand, have a pointy stick. How do we start?
Clara: We assume we’re going to win.

Doctor Who: The Witches’ Familiar 2015

There are few thing I enjoy more than re-watching the 2004 ALCS series starting with the 9th inning of game 4.

Even twelve years later and with three world series in the bag. The 2004 ALCS is special. It brings a smile to the face and a tear to the eye and it all began with the greatest stolen base in Red Sox History:

and ended with Big Papi knocking it out.

Now for Red Sox fans like myself the great comeback of 2004 is particularly special because it was our first world series win. That first championship is always the greatest.

I’m sure this isn’t unique to Red Sox fans. 1969 was the first championship for the Met and the 1969 Miracle Mets as some might have forgotten came back from behind to take the East from the Chicago Cubs and then swept Atlanta to win their first pennant.

Yes that’s a young Nolan Ryan who was to win his only World Series Ring of his incredible career with those Miracle Mets.

And if you go back even further in 1951 the then NY Giants were 12 1/2 back in August and 4 1/2 games back with ten to play and managed to come back and take the Pennant.

Now All of these teams and comebacks are legendary and every baseball fan knows them. Do you know the reason why?

Because they are exceptions.

Nobody talks about the seasons when the Yankees dominated in the 90’s or the Reds in 1976 or the 1973 Oakland A’s not because they weren’t great teams but because thing happened as expected.

And that brings us to the election results tonight.

As of this writing Massachusetts, Georgia, Virginia and Alabama and Tennessee have all gone for Donald Trump and when CNN reported that GOP donors are getting together to get money together to stop him Jake Tapper just said “Why don’t they wait till after the inauguration?”

At the same time as the GOP Establishment is doing this many of my fellow conservative activists are talking about the same thing stopping Trump or suggesting that he’s in trouble to wit

Now as I’ve said over and Over I’m a Ted Cruz guy. I voted for him today and I urge all voters to vote for Ted as the best candidate to secure the border, stop Obamacare, I’m glad he’s leading in Texas and exit polls look good in Oklahoma which would be one more state than the MSM was projecting and I’d be delighted for him to come back and win the nomination.

But I understand that such a comeback would be in the same class as the 2004 Red Sox , the 1969 Mets and the 1951 Giants and have no intention of pretending otherwise and I hope the Ted Cruz campaign does the same because you can’t get to where you want to go unless you understand where you are.

Now I don’t expect the Establishment GOP to tell the truth but I’m really bothered to see my fellow conservative activists retreat to their safe spaces

Cue south Park

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Election Day continues and with 3 hours to go we are still $47 shy of our $61 daily goal.

A journey of a thousand miles starts with a single step so I see no reason why a journey to $61 can’t start with $14.

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G Reilly: How would you like it I had the maid over there bring your ass a pinata, that stuff was full of with candy and nachos and chimichangas and tacos, and burritos and a blanket with a big ass bottle of Tequila. what would you say?

Gabriel Iglesias: Thank You!

Gabriel Iglesias Racist Gift Basket

 

One of the advantages of age is memory and perspective and watching yesterday’s CNN debate returned me to the days of my youth in the pre-cable / internet age when my family would gather around the TV set together to watch All in the Family.  It brought to mind a particular episode from 1973 Called “The Games Bunkers play“.

In the episode  Uber Liberal Mike (Meathead) Stivic (Rob Reiner) invites the Lorenzos (Vincent Gardenia, Betty Garrett), Lionel Jefferson ( Mike Evans ) to join him and wife (Sally Struthers) and his mother in law Edith (Jean Stapleton) in a game called Group Therapy which is supposed to reveal things about themselves. Archie (Carroll O’Connor) passes. “I’ll tell you what I’ll do little girl I’ll give you my interpretation of a guy going down to Kelsey’s for a couple of beers.”

Alas for Mike the things he finds out about himself are that for all his bleeding heart liberalism and self professed tolerance he’s locked into his own prejudices.  At one point Lionel (whose family is the black foil for Archie Bunker) draws a card saying “Choose a member of the group now standing back to back and pushing each other them why it’s hard to be direct with them.”  Mike jokes that Lionel will have to pass since Archie isn’t there and is shocked when Lionel says:  “I choose you” and instantly notes that Mike isn’t pushing and asks if he’d push harder if he was white and the exchange escalates video here :
 

Lionel:  Yeah man just once I’d like for you to talk to me like I’m Lionel Jefferson and not a representative of the whole black race.

Mike:  Oh C’mon Lionel I don’t do that.

Lionel:  Sure man what’s the first thing you say whenever I see you, something about the “black” problem right?

Mike:  C’mon Lionel, What do you want me to talk about the weather?

Lionel:  Sometimes yeah black people have weather too.  We get rained on and everything.

And THAT brings us to the CNN debate and Telemundo reporter María Celeste Arrarás.

For a reporter the chance to appear in a highly rated national debate is a Godsend and I’m sure Ms. Arrasas was delighted for the chance to question the candidates.  There are a vast array of issues that are critical in America.  Jobs, the war against ISIS, Obamacare, Fracking and the Climate Change debate, the Revolts going on college campus, Policing, Twitter’s attacks on conservatives, Food Prices, Housing prices, the Zika virus, the VA that  are of vast importance to the viewers of Telemundo.

However given the chance to address all of these issues Ms. Arrarás confined her questions to Immigration, Latino perceptions of the candidates and the Puerto Rico Debt crisis (which in fairness is a serious national issue that’s been largely ignored).  It’s as if CNN and Telemundo came in with preconceived impressions of what a latino journalist was supposed to be and she happily went along.

At least South Park openly calls their black character “Token”.

It’s also worth noting the debate illustrated the difference between Latino liberals and conservative, in that while Ms. Arrarás was glad to say “Thank you for the racist gift basket” a la the famous (and hilarious) Gabriel Iglesias skit, the Latino GOP candidates on stage were having none of it.  Neither Cruz

You know, I would note that a lot of folks in the media have a definition of Hispanics that you can only be hispanic if you’re liberal. That makes sense in the media, but I gotta tell you, one of the things I was most proud of when I ran for Senate here in Texas, I earned 40 percent of the hispanic vote here in Texas.  At the same time, Mitt Romney was getting clobbered with 27 percent of the hispanic vote nationwide. And, the reason is, as you know, you look at the value sin the hispanic community. The values in our community are faith, family, patriotism.

You know, we’ve got the highest rate of military enlistment among Hispanics in any demographic in this country. And, when I campaigned, and I campaigned the same here in Houston or Dallas as I did in the Rio Grande Valley, defending conservative principles, defending judeo- Christian principals, telling my father’s story.  Telling my Dad’s story of coming to America with $100 dollars in his underwear, not speaking English, washing dishes, having hopes and dreams for the American dream. And, the truth is the Obama-Clinton economy has done enormous damage to the hispanic community. It is not working in the hispanic community, and I…fighting so that everyone who is struggling in the hispanic community and beyond will have a fair and even shake at the American dream.

Nor Rubio

the second point I would make is that we have to move past this idea that somehow the hispanic community only cares about immigration.  Yes, it’s an important issue because we know and love people that have been impacted by it. But, I’m going to tell you that the most powerful sentiment in the hispanic community, as it is in every immigrant community, is the burning desire to leave your children better off than yourself and, you can only do that through free enterprise. That’s what we stand for, not socialism like Bernie Sanders, and increasingly Hillary Clinton.

If Ms. Arrarás wants to play the Token Latina from a telenovela that the Liberal MSM expects that’s up to her.  Perhaps they can get her a tight fitting low cut dress for the next debate and occasionally cut away to a ripped Latino man giving her a soulful look for effect, as she asks her questions.

But let me say from my experience this is not reflective of the latinos I know. In my last job I worked with Latinos from multiple countries and when we were all laid off together last week I can guarantee you the last thing on any of their minds was if Donald Trump or anyone else was going to build a fence at the southern border.

Update: Fausta informs me I’ve dropped an “S” from the end of our Telemundo reporter, actually spelled Arrarás, corrected.

Update 2: Powerline asks: What is Telemundo running for?

Even under the slack standards and biased practices of the left-liberal mainstream media, it should be unacceptable for journalists asking questions at a debate to stake out a substantive position and then ask the candidates whether they “get it.” The job of journalists in this context (and others) is to ask for the candidates’ position, not (in effect) to instruct them and the audience that they are clueless if they don’t agree with the position the journalist happens to take.

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Either way thanks for reading and don’t be shy about letting us know what you think. One can’t improve without critique.

I’ve written several posts on the current electoral situation in the GOP  and noticed some of the statements of the various campaigns that are completely divorced from reality when it comes to dealing with Donald Trump.

Furthermore on twitter, but not yet on the blog I’ve hit the absolutely stupidity of Mitt Romney’s attack on Donald Trump’s taxes, which echos the dishonorable attacks that Harry Reid used on him.  On that subject I think Stacy McCain’s point from 2012 that I quoted in this post applies:

What I believe is this: Whatever Harry Reid knows about Mitt Romney’s taxes, he obtained from Democrat Party sources who, in turn, got it via the leaking of this confidential information from IRS officials to individuals affiliated with the Obama campaign.

Reid is lying — mischaracterizing his sources — to conceal the fact that the Obama campaign has illegally obtained Romney’s IRS forms.

But don’t expect me to prove that accusation. I don’t think the burden should be on me. The burden should be on Harry Reid. He’s the one I’ve alleged is part of a Nixonian conspiracy at the White House. Why didn’t Harry identify his sources?

In fact the only thing more outrageous than Romney’s attack on Trump’s taxes based on zero evidence is Harry Reid attacking him for it (I’m not kidding)

But for all this nonsense there problem remains: How do you beat Donald Trump?  Right now that’s the only question on the floor and if your candidate isn’t thinking along those lines, he’s not serious and needs to drop out.

The only way to do this is to either bring in new voters for yourself but none of the candidates have the reach to the general public that Trump has so that’s not practicable, the other way is to discourage Donald Trump voters from voting, I don’t see that working either since any attack on Trump simply angers the Trump voter and produces attacks that are not easily countered given his social media reach.

That leaves only one other card. Somehow Make the case to the Donald Trump voter to vote for you instead.

While this is a longshot it is the only viable plan short of the GOP changing it’s convention rules, to stop Trump. You need to persuade these voters that not only are you with them but you’ve been with them since day 1.

On it’s face this seems ridiculous and for Marco Rubio it would be.  His embrace of the gang of 8 makes it impossible and for John Kasich his embrace of obamacare makes it doubly so.  Ben Carson might be able to try such a pitch but he can’t make a case any different than Mr. Trump can.

However  there is one candidate who actually is in a position to make this case. In fact he is in perfect position to do so.

That man is Ted Cruz.

Here’s how.

At tonight’s debate when invited to attack Donald Trump, and believe me CNN will,  Ted Cruz should say something along these lines.

“Actually rather than attack Donald Trump I’d like to thank him. He has energized thousands of new GOP voters, voters who are tired of the party ignoring them on Amnesty, ignoring them on Obamacare, ignoring them on Radical Islam and Ignoring them on Common Core. Mr. Trump has talked about these issues and they have entered the national conversation.”

“And I thank him again for it again, because for years I have been in Washington fighting tirelessly to stop Amnesty so I’m pleased to see Donald Trump adding his words to my actions, for years I have been in Washington fighting tirelessly to defund and stop Obamacare and I’m pleased to see Donald Trump add his words to support my actions, for years I’ve been in Washington fighting tirelessly to get this administration to acknowledge the danger and reality of radical Islam and I’m pleased to see Donald Trump add his voice to support my fight and for years I’ve been making the fight in Washington against Common Core and I’m simply delighted to have Donald Trump add his words to support my fight.

And to those new voters who want to make America Great again, who are angry about Obamacare, Amnesty, Common Core and worried about radical islam I say to you your fight is the one I’ve been fighting for years. Donald Trump’s words are great and I’m pleased to hear them, but if you want someone in the White House that has actually fought these fights that you care about. I ask you for your vote.”

Furthermore every single time Donald Trump brings up these issues in the debate Ted Cruz should affirm these issues that Trump raising AND point to the solid steps that he Ted Cruz has done to achieve them.

I suggest that this is the right way to go for several reasons:

1. It complements Donald Trump for raising these issues that other candidates are ducking
2. It affirms the voters who have come out for Trump noting that their concerns are valid rather than attacking them
3. It brings up Ted Cruz’s record on all of these issues, a record that is superior to all the Non-Trump candidates
4. It notes the difference between Talking about an issue, and DOING something bout an issue
5. It does all of these things without actually attacking Trump.
6. It’s an honest and straightforward case as opposed to the Romney tax BS

I don’t deny this is a going to be a tough sell, but until anyone else comes up with a better way to attract the Donald Trump voters I submit and suggest this is the best plan out there and frankly better than anything an expensive consultant is throwing out there.  And if anyone has a better plan I’d be delighted to hear it.

Good Luck.

Update: At the Weekly Standard (via Insty) they are thinking differently

In his indispensible newsletter, the Transom, Ben Domenech makes a profound observation about tonight’s debate: The best way to become the “Not Trump,” is to beat Trump. And the way to beat him isn’t to argue that he’s a meanie or detail his ideological inconsistencies. It’s to go full-alpha and nuke him from orbit.

I don’t think that will play with Trump voters myself

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It’s 6:31 PM and we have 5 1/2 hours to make the $9 dollars we are shy of our daily goal of $61 and $1282 behind our daily goal for the year (just over 21 days short) that can keep the mortgage and the writers paid.

To those who have kicked in (particularly new subscribers of which we need 114.5 @ $10 a month guarantee our goal every day), thanks ever so much.

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Either way thanks for reading and don’t be shy about letting us know what you think. One can’t improve without critique.

Ohila: All you’re doing is giving her hope.
12th Doctor: Since when is hope a bad thing?
Ohila: Hope is a terrible thing on the scaffold.

Doctor Who: Hell Bent 2015

It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.

Richard P. Feynman. (Via Don Surber)

One of the nasty things about reality is it tends to make mincemeat out of the pleasant illusions that people who wish to deny it. It doesn’t always happen fast and it tends to involve many twists and turns but sooner or later reality like a dripping stream over a boulder wears things down.

Yesterday’s Nevada caucus is a great example of the illusion shattering power of reality as it has caused many myths about the GOP primary to bite the Dust.

Myth #1 Donald Trump has a ceiling of 34 percent or so.

On Tuesday in Nevada Donald Trump managed to pull 46% of the vote. Granted that as a hotel mogul running in a state where the hospitality industry is huge one might expect him to do well but to pull 46% in a five person race is simply astounding.

Myth #2 Donald Trump can’t win caucus states.

Donald Trump two wins prior to Nevada were both in primary states where all you have to do is show up. His only loss came in a caucus state (Iowa) where voting is a time consuming event leading to the theory that the disinterested Trump voters wouldn’t put the time in for a caucus. Nevada proves this theory completely wrong.

Myth #3  Once Candidates Drop out Trump will Lose

We keep hearing the “if enough people drop out Trump will eventually lose because all those votes are anti-Trump” Well Jeb Bush dropped out after South Carolina and Trump’s percentage of the vote increased by 14% while Marco Rubio’s increased by 2% and Ted Cruz’s decreased by 1%.

Myth #4 If only Cruz & Rubio Team up they can beat Trump

In Nevada Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio combined for 45.3% of the vote. Donald Trump won 45.9% of the vote.

Myth #5 Marco Mentum

As much as the GOP establishment would like to pretend otherwise Marco Rubio has no momentum and his strategy of declaring victory after every crushing defeat simply makes him look like a fool.

Myth #6 The Ground game

My Candidate is and remains Ted Cruz, I believe he is he best choice due to his record and he has built an impressive ground game, but when you are dealing with states where you don’t have months to campaign and voters who might not have been paying attention until the week of the primary or caucus a ground game of activists without a comparable media game is comparable to an army attacking without air cover, it’s just not enough.

Myth #7 Conservatism is the key

Of all the myths that have been shattered this is the one toughest for me to admit. Ted Cruz’s line of attack vs Donald Trump that he doesn’t have a conservative record is completely accurate and one of the primary reasons why I can’t even consider Trump over Cruz, but while there might be enough conservatives in the country to deny a GOP nominee victory in a general election if they stay home, Trump’s success demonstrates that there are not enough hardcore conservatives to deny a GOP candidate the nomination if your candidate has enough across the board support.

Myth #8 Specifics vs Broad Outlines

I can’t tell you how many times we’ve heard pundits on TV say “Candidates need to provide specifics” and reporter decry the lack of such plans. The reality is the only people who bother with specifics are the uber geeks who make up the tiniest part of the electorate and the media who wish to use said specifics to bring a candidate down. People who are actually living their lives are looking for the broad outlines. “Build a wall” Stop Radical Islam, Destroy ISIS, Make America great”. If you sell those ideas the voters will let you worry about the details

Myth #9 You HAVE to follow FOXCNNMSNBCTWITTERDRUDGE every second of the evening the night of an election.

This one is a tad facetious but Tuesday night I decided I didn’t want to stay up to wait for the caucus results so I hit the sack letting my body continue to adjust to a normal sleep scheduled vs the 10:30-7 AM shift I had before my layoff a week ago last night. Amazingly when I woke up the next day the world was still there and all the info I wanted about the Nevada results were not only available but free of the speculation of the media trying, much like the climate change crew, that long shot eventualities are a real possibility.

Now I’m sure post Nevada we are going to get a whole new batch of myths sold to us in the hope that it causes us to either watch the various networks or vote a particular way or consider the race over. Right now if fair to say that Trump is the presumptive nominee unless one of the other candidates figure out a way to beat him. That’s not impossible but unless something changes dramatically it’s becoming increasingly improbable.

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Our Daily goal is $61 and we hope that today’s posts can draw it. However even if we do we’re still $1334 (just over 21 days) behind meeting our daily goal for the year that can keep the mortgage and the writers paid.

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And it is a common saying that it is best first to catch the stag, and afterwards, when he has been caught, to skin him.

Henry De Bracton

I find myself constantly amazed at the insistence of partisans of Marco Rubio that not winning any primaries or caucuses is the path to the GOP nomination.

While it inspired a parody song out of me based on “Show Me” from the musical “My Fair Lady”  I think that Bill James in his 1985 Historical Baseball Abstract tells a story whose 100th anniversary this year illustrates the point better than my musical interlude.

In 1916 Hughie Jennings manager of the Detroit Tigers got a letter from a young man who claimed that he could strike out the Ty Cobb on three pitches anytime and anywhere.

Cobb by this time was the best hitter in Baseball.  By 1916 his twelfth season had already led the league in batting (including two seasons hitting over .400) nine times.  He lead the league in hits six times, on base percentage 5 times, stolen bases, RBI’s &runs 4  times, triples & doubles twice and Home Runs once including winning the Triple crown in 1909.

Despite this Jennings decided to risk the 1.80 train fare for the kid to come to Detroit to see what he had and when the 6′ 4″ kid turned up and was ready Cobb came to the plate.  I’ll Let Mr. James pick up the narrative from here:

Cobb hit his first pitch against the right field wall.  his second pitch went over the right field wall.  The third pitch went over the center field wall.  Cobb ws thinking they ought to keep this guy around to help him get into a groove.

“Well” said Jennings.  “What do you have to say?”

the Pitcher stared in hard at the batter’s box.  “You know, ” he said , “I don’t believe that’s Ty Cobb in there.”

Alas for the young man wishful thinking and confident talk was not enough to convince Jennings to grant the kid a roster spot.

That’s Marco Rubio all over.

Marco Rubio is a good young pol who has, except on the issue of illegal immigration, done well so far.  I do not doubt for a moment that he has an even brighter future ahead of him.

But when he boasts of his performance in the 2016 primary season, where despite many high profile endorsement he has failed to win a single race, he sounds like the young kid in this story boasting of his skill while throwing fat Pitches to Ty Cobb without getting a single one by him.

It makes him and his supporters look like fools, that’s bad, but it also means he takes us for fools as well.

That’s worse.

Ok We’ve now had three primaries and my man Ted Cruz has won 1, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd once.  A pretty good record so far.  In baseball that would be a .333 avg.

Marco Rubio who is being celebrated by the pundits and the party as the man to watch has one 2nd place finish and one 3rd place finish and a 5th.  And for all of the glowing words of his supporters he has yet to win a race (somebody should write a song about that)

John Kasich has managed one 2nd place victory and hasn’t done better than 5th anywhere else.

And Ben Carson has not finished higher than 4th.

Yet right now all the talk on the cable news and in the media seems to be:

 How the GOP establishment is rallying around Marco Rubio 

How the party is trying to talk Kasich into puling out to enable Rubio

How the party is trying to keep Ben Carson in to counter Ted Cruz

All of this seems to ignore a simple fact:  Donald Trump

In three contests thus far Donald Trump has won two of them and came in 2nd in the other.

 

If Mr. Trump did not run and Jeb Bush had done this everyone would have declared the race over.

If Mitt Romney had done this in 2012 the pundits would have declared the GOP race over.

Yet the only thing anyone seems to be talking about is which guy is going to take Trump out.

This is ridiculous.

Donald Trump is the front-runner.  He has not only won two contests out of three but more importantly after losing the first contest that he was expected to win was able to learn from it and make the necessary adjustments.

Furthermore he has been winning by increasing GOP turnout to record levels bringing in new voters anxious to hear his two primary messages:

No Amnesty

Stopping Radical Islam

These two primary messages have overshadowed gaffes and contradictions that would have doomed a less popular candidate, but Trump’s base and audience are larger than the media which would dearly love to destroy him and beyond the reach of the GOP establishment which has no influence on the people who support him.

These are the facts and no amount of wishful thinking, establishment endorsements or optimistic spin will change it.

So what IS being done to change it?

From Ben Carson?  Little or nothing.  In an open primary was unable to persuade large amounts of the black electorate to cross over to support him, and unless he has some kind of secret weapon up his sleeve his campaign has no prayer of winning anywhere let alone stopping trump.

From John Kasich?  Not much more.  He isn’t even trying in most of the upcoming states and seems to be staking his hopes on Ohio but doesn’t have the cash or the backing to get anywhere.

From Marco Rubio?  His plan seems to be to keep pretending he’s winning even when he doesn’t under the assumption that he has a divine right to the votes of candidates as they drop out which will eventually raise him over Trump but until he proves he can win somewhere anywhere, all of Rubio’s talk mean nothing.

Only my guy Ted Cruz has managed to beat Trump at least once and has continued to attack him using his Trump own words and actions to illustrate him as not a reliable conservative, however even with his strong forward thinking ground game his attacks are blunted by Trump’s ability to attract voters who are not interested in conservative principles.

But if any of them plan on beating Donald Trump they will need to do two things:

Admit that Donald Trump is currently leading:

Adapt their campaigns to deal with Mr. Trumps success.

Reality is what it is and until you admit to reality, you can’t change it.

And the Clock is ticking

 

I was laid off this week from my 3rd shift job so my plan to use said job to pay the mortgage while using the site to get out of debt in a couple of years is out the window unless we suddenly get 125 subscribers at $10 a month. When I say I could use a hand right now I’m not kidding. (We picked up the equivalent of 6 such subscribers this weekend 119 more @$10 a month to go)

Since we all know the rosey description of the Obama economy by the MSM is BS to those who have kicked in (particularly subscribers), thanks much.

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