Yesterday’s GOP debate proved several things.

The GOP can do substance, there were good questions and answers and while there were several tough blows they were all within the bounds of propriety.

It also proved what I’ve said that Trump can do substance.

There were solid difference between the candidates and they were highlighted very well but without the circus did people keep watching or change the channel.

I think Ted Cruz made the best point of the night in saying that Donald Trump has correctly identified the problems but his solutions are off. It’s the only way in my opinion to win over potential Trump voters.

Rubio had a good debate and it answered the question on Rubio pulling out before Florida (no chance).

Kasich did OK but oddly nobody seems to be leaning on him to pull out even though he has won two less races than Rubio. He is what he is and in normal year would be a valid consideration.

But the winner of the Debate was Donald Trump. Not because he gave good answers (he did) Not because he stayed on the offensive on Islam (He did) and not because he sold he lie on Ted Cruz being for Amnesty with a straight face

No he won because he was the leader and anything that doesn’t stop the guy in the lead helps him.

The biggest loser is whoever hosts the next debate because while this debate likely got ratings, if the next one is like this, it may not.

Closing thought, we’ve had a Debate in Ohio, we’ve had one in Texas and now in florida, will they have on in NYC so Trump can get home field advantage once?

Update: Ed Morrissey nails John Kasich:

Kasich stood out in the last debate because he didn’t take part in the personal-insult circus. In this debate, with everyone focusing on substance, Kasich didn’t stand out at all.

The reason for his campaign kinda melts doesn’t it?

At Instapundit there is a piece on the CNN Marco Rubio Kerfuffle that includes a quote from Mickey Kaus via Twitter:

Because it is twitter rather than his own blog we are deprived of deeper context but reading this one question instantly comes to mind:

Is it possible for the public’s expectations for the Rubio campaign to fall any lower?

Update: Rubio Rubes self identify:

Just when Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio needs them the most, big-dollar contributors from the party’s wealthy mainstream are having second thoughts about his future in the 2016 race.

That only now Rubio donors are having second thought suggest they weren’t doing much 1st thinking.

Can anyone explain how even if Rubio managed to somehow win florida voters in other states magically go to him?

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Yesterday we talked about and linked to the story of Twitter Hemorrhaging money but the more I think of it the more Twitter’s financial and publicity problems remind me of Marco Rubio.

Consider Twitter has a systemic problem of how to make money.  It’s business model depends on advertisers being willing to pay to get their ads before the eyeballs of tweeters.

So every single day advertisers see tweets like this:

and this

and this

And when we stories like this at Drudge

Liberals Turn Twitter, Facebook And Even College Campuses Into Unsafe Spaces For The Right

see power uses of twitter saying things like this:

I’ve gone off Twitter. Or, I should say, I’ve stopped being a Twitter user, and user is the right word.

It illustrates the issue. Twitter now has a reputation with conservatives who have an incentive to either leave it, ignore it or complain to advertisers.

We are rapidly reaching a point where even if Twitter reinstates Robert Stacy McCain, Disbands its safety council and offers profuse apologies to conservatives, the reputation that “Twitter is hostile to conservatives” will be ingrained and every potential company considering Twitter as a platform will be asking itself, “do I want to risk angering these people?

Once that rep is there it’s there, and I suspect Stacy holding court at CPAC will not help matters much.

Ironically that’s exactly the problem Marco Rubio has

Let’s start something that a lot of people forget. For all the stupidity of victory speeches after every loss the reality is Marco Rubio has a good record as a Senator.

He beat the horrible Charlie Crist. He has a 98% rating from the ACU, he’s been a vocal and eloquent defender of life and has stood side by side with Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and other strong conservatives on many issues and frankly if anyone told you the day he won in Florida that we’d be in an election where Marco Rubio was the establishment choice for president Tea Party Conservatives would be pumping their fists saying, We’ve won!

The problem for Marco is and remains the gang of 8.

For all of his good points Marco Rubio was a member of the gang of 8 pushing the amnesty bill. He was the face of the bill and as we’ve documented during the entire time it was pushed it was all about Marco.

And the voters have a very long memory on this issue:

“Over the last three months, Marco Rubio’s name and face and voice have been so attached to the comprehensive immigration bill that it has virtually killed any enthusiasm among Republicans in Iowa for a Rubio presidential candidacy,” said GOP State Central Committee member Jamie Johnson. “Most Republicans here now see Rubio as the amnesty candidate.”

That’s why Eric Cantor lost.

What’s really funny about this is regardless of what the MSM pretended supporting amnesty doesn’t nothing for a Latino who has an R next to their name as Gabriel Gomez demonstrated.

So let me get this straight, you have Gabriel Gomez who has a life full of achievement as a Navy Flyer, Navy Seal and businessman, who won a GOP primary with over 50% proclaiming loudly and publicly his support of the efforts of the gang of 8, and the reaction is to Question if he passes a litmus test for being Latino?

If this is how an actual Latino, a son of Colombian immigrants, a person to who English was the second language he learned what makes who supports the gang of 8 bill is treated can someone explain to me why anyone would assume Latinos will even give a hearing to the GOP if they support this bill?

And to top it off the forces of the establishment, the people who talked Rubio into joining the gang of eight in the first place are lining up to support him.

And that’s Rubio’s problem, he can make fun of Trump’s hands, he can try to spin Cruz’s amendments to the gang of eight bill, he can even make speeches about con men, the soul of the conservative movement and vow he will stay in the race all he wants.

But nothing he can do can take away the knowledge and the memory of his support for the gang of eight from GOP voters who care about it so as long as Trump is running on building the wall, Marco Rubio’s chances are practically non-existent.

That’s just the way it is and Marco Rubio can’t change it. The only question is will Twitter figure it out before they’re permanently in Rubio’s spot?

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I got a call yesterday from my old employer and much to my surprise I’ve been called by from my layoff and I’ll be back working overnights Saturday night.

That means rather than worrying about a mortgage which my job can cover I can try to pay down my debts over the next year so perhaps next year I can afford CPAC.

The goal remains the same $61 a day and I’m pleased to say we made yesterday’s goal by enough to make up for the shortfall the previous day meaning we start today with a deficit of $1285 and 21.06 days.

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Vroomfondel (?): What we demand is a total absence of solid facts, I demand that I may or may not be Vroomfondel

The Hitchhikers guide to the Galaxy

Super Tuesday is done and if there is one thing he can say for sure it’s this.

The chances of Donald Trump failing to win the GOP nomination is shrinking.

To be sure he lost Texas to my man Ted Cruz, who for good measure added Oklahoma and Alaska meaning that Cruz beat him in two states that pundits didn’t expect him to win at the start of the day.

Meanwhile Marko “wunderkind” Rubio finally got a win under his belt. Rubio managed to win Minnesota with Cruz second meaning we’ve found a state that Trump didn’t manage to come in at least second. (Of course it’s a state that the GOP hasn’t won since the Nixon Landslide of 1972 and has very little chance of winning this time but I digress).

It’s true everybody got a share of Delegates, even John Kasich who proved as NH goes so goes Vermont , but as Real Clear Politics notes (via Instapundit) Trump currently leads combined the non-trump forces in delegates. Things are looking good for him, that’s a neutral objective fact.

However if you’re not a fan of neutral objective facts, your favorite moment of the night was Jake Tapper’s interview with Marco Rubio’s which ended thus

Excuse me?

Now I share the worry that Donald Trump may not be as conservative as he claims to be and that’s why I support Ted Cruz and continue to do so.

But I’m sorry if you are going on national TV at a point when you hadn’t won any states give a victory speech and tell people that you are the guy to win it all, and then insist that you are going to stop Donald Trump, You’re the con man not he.

Cue the Hitchhikers Guide:

Perhaps Marco can catch up with Trump in 7 and a half Billion years and stay on the donor gravy train till then.

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We don’t play con games around here. I’m giving another shot at making a living by this blog and Yesterdays $14 which was $47 shy of our $61 daily goal was almost as bad a day as Marco Rubio’s

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Missy (The Master): He’s trapped at the heart of the Dalek empire. He’s a prisoner of the creatures who hate him most in the universe. Between us and him is everything the deadliest race in all of history can throw at us. We, on the other hand, have a pointy stick. How do we start?
Clara: We assume we’re going to win.

Doctor Who: The Witches’ Familiar 2015

There are few thing I enjoy more than re-watching the 2004 ALCS series starting with the 9th inning of game 4.

Even twelve years later and with three world series in the bag. The 2004 ALCS is special. It brings a smile to the face and a tear to the eye and it all began with the greatest stolen base in Red Sox History:

and ended with Big Papi knocking it out.

Now for Red Sox fans like myself the great comeback of 2004 is particularly special because it was our first world series win. That first championship is always the greatest.

I’m sure this isn’t unique to Red Sox fans. 1969 was the first championship for the Met and the 1969 Miracle Mets as some might have forgotten came back from behind to take the East from the Chicago Cubs and then swept Atlanta to win their first pennant.

Yes that’s a young Nolan Ryan who was to win his only World Series Ring of his incredible career with those Miracle Mets.

And if you go back even further in 1951 the then NY Giants were 12 1/2 back in August and 4 1/2 games back with ten to play and managed to come back and take the Pennant.

Now All of these teams and comebacks are legendary and every baseball fan knows them. Do you know the reason why?

Because they are exceptions.

Nobody talks about the seasons when the Yankees dominated in the 90’s or the Reds in 1976 or the 1973 Oakland A’s not because they weren’t great teams but because thing happened as expected.

And that brings us to the election results tonight.

As of this writing Massachusetts, Georgia, Virginia and Alabama and Tennessee have all gone for Donald Trump and when CNN reported that GOP donors are getting together to get money together to stop him Jake Tapper just said “Why don’t they wait till after the inauguration?”

At the same time as the GOP Establishment is doing this many of my fellow conservative activists are talking about the same thing stopping Trump or suggesting that he’s in trouble to wit

Now as I’ve said over and Over I’m a Ted Cruz guy. I voted for him today and I urge all voters to vote for Ted as the best candidate to secure the border, stop Obamacare, I’m glad he’s leading in Texas and exit polls look good in Oklahoma which would be one more state than the MSM was projecting and I’d be delighted for him to come back and win the nomination.

But I understand that such a comeback would be in the same class as the 2004 Red Sox , the 1969 Mets and the 1951 Giants and have no intention of pretending otherwise and I hope the Ted Cruz campaign does the same because you can’t get to where you want to go unless you understand where you are.

Now I don’t expect the Establishment GOP to tell the truth but I’m really bothered to see my fellow conservative activists retreat to their safe spaces

Cue south Park

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Election Day continues and with 3 hours to go we are still $47 shy of our $61 daily goal.

A journey of a thousand miles starts with a single step so I see no reason why a journey to $61 can’t start with $14.

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G Reilly: How would you like it I had the maid over there bring your ass a pinata, that stuff was full of with candy and nachos and chimichangas and tacos, and burritos and a blanket with a big ass bottle of Tequila. what would you say?

Gabriel Iglesias: Thank You!

Gabriel Iglesias Racist Gift Basket

 

One of the advantages of age is memory and perspective and watching yesterday’s CNN debate returned me to the days of my youth in the pre-cable / internet age when my family would gather around the TV set together to watch All in the Family.  It brought to mind a particular episode from 1973 Called “The Games Bunkers play“.

In the episode  Uber Liberal Mike (Meathead) Stivic (Rob Reiner) invites the Lorenzos (Vincent Gardenia, Betty Garrett), Lionel Jefferson ( Mike Evans ) to join him and wife (Sally Struthers) and his mother in law Edith (Jean Stapleton) in a game called Group Therapy which is supposed to reveal things about themselves. Archie (Carroll O’Connor) passes. “I’ll tell you what I’ll do little girl I’ll give you my interpretation of a guy going down to Kelsey’s for a couple of beers.”

Alas for Mike the things he finds out about himself are that for all his bleeding heart liberalism and self professed tolerance he’s locked into his own prejudices.  At one point Lionel (whose family is the black foil for Archie Bunker) draws a card saying “Choose a member of the group now standing back to back and pushing each other them why it’s hard to be direct with them.”  Mike jokes that Lionel will have to pass since Archie isn’t there and is shocked when Lionel says:  “I choose you” and instantly notes that Mike isn’t pushing and asks if he’d push harder if he was white and the exchange escalates video here :
 

Lionel:  Yeah man just once I’d like for you to talk to me like I’m Lionel Jefferson and not a representative of the whole black race.

Mike:  Oh C’mon Lionel I don’t do that.

Lionel:  Sure man what’s the first thing you say whenever I see you, something about the “black” problem right?

Mike:  C’mon Lionel, What do you want me to talk about the weather?

Lionel:  Sometimes yeah black people have weather too.  We get rained on and everything.

And THAT brings us to the CNN debate and Telemundo reporter María Celeste Arrarás.

For a reporter the chance to appear in a highly rated national debate is a Godsend and I’m sure Ms. Arrasas was delighted for the chance to question the candidates.  There are a vast array of issues that are critical in America.  Jobs, the war against ISIS, Obamacare, Fracking and the Climate Change debate, the Revolts going on college campus, Policing, Twitter’s attacks on conservatives, Food Prices, Housing prices, the Zika virus, the VA that  are of vast importance to the viewers of Telemundo.

However given the chance to address all of these issues Ms. Arrarás confined her questions to Immigration, Latino perceptions of the candidates and the Puerto Rico Debt crisis (which in fairness is a serious national issue that’s been largely ignored).  It’s as if CNN and Telemundo came in with preconceived impressions of what a latino journalist was supposed to be and she happily went along.

At least South Park openly calls their black character “Token”.

It’s also worth noting the debate illustrated the difference between Latino liberals and conservative, in that while Ms. Arrarás was glad to say “Thank you for the racist gift basket” a la the famous (and hilarious) Gabriel Iglesias skit, the Latino GOP candidates on stage were having none of it.  Neither Cruz

You know, I would note that a lot of folks in the media have a definition of Hispanics that you can only be hispanic if you’re liberal. That makes sense in the media, but I gotta tell you, one of the things I was most proud of when I ran for Senate here in Texas, I earned 40 percent of the hispanic vote here in Texas.  At the same time, Mitt Romney was getting clobbered with 27 percent of the hispanic vote nationwide. And, the reason is, as you know, you look at the value sin the hispanic community. The values in our community are faith, family, patriotism.

You know, we’ve got the highest rate of military enlistment among Hispanics in any demographic in this country. And, when I campaigned, and I campaigned the same here in Houston or Dallas as I did in the Rio Grande Valley, defending conservative principles, defending judeo- Christian principals, telling my father’s story.  Telling my Dad’s story of coming to America with $100 dollars in his underwear, not speaking English, washing dishes, having hopes and dreams for the American dream. And, the truth is the Obama-Clinton economy has done enormous damage to the hispanic community. It is not working in the hispanic community, and I…fighting so that everyone who is struggling in the hispanic community and beyond will have a fair and even shake at the American dream.

Nor Rubio

the second point I would make is that we have to move past this idea that somehow the hispanic community only cares about immigration.  Yes, it’s an important issue because we know and love people that have been impacted by it. But, I’m going to tell you that the most powerful sentiment in the hispanic community, as it is in every immigrant community, is the burning desire to leave your children better off than yourself and, you can only do that through free enterprise. That’s what we stand for, not socialism like Bernie Sanders, and increasingly Hillary Clinton.

If Ms. Arrarás wants to play the Token Latina from a telenovela that the Liberal MSM expects that’s up to her.  Perhaps they can get her a tight fitting low cut dress for the next debate and occasionally cut away to a ripped Latino man giving her a soulful look for effect, as she asks her questions.

But let me say from my experience this is not reflective of the latinos I know. In my last job I worked with Latinos from multiple countries and when we were all laid off together last week I can guarantee you the last thing on any of their minds was if Donald Trump or anyone else was going to build a fence at the southern border.

Update: Fausta informs me I’ve dropped an “S” from the end of our Telemundo reporter, actually spelled Arrarás, corrected.

Update 2: Powerline asks: What is Telemundo running for?

Even under the slack standards and biased practices of the left-liberal mainstream media, it should be unacceptable for journalists asking questions at a debate to stake out a substantive position and then ask the candidates whether they “get it.” The job of journalists in this context (and others) is to ask for the candidates’ position, not (in effect) to instruct them and the audience that they are clueless if they don’t agree with the position the journalist happens to take.

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Either way thanks for reading and don’t be shy about letting us know what you think. One can’t improve without critique.

I’ve written several posts on the current electoral situation in the GOP  and noticed some of the statements of the various campaigns that are completely divorced from reality when it comes to dealing with Donald Trump.

Furthermore on twitter, but not yet on the blog I’ve hit the absolutely stupidity of Mitt Romney’s attack on Donald Trump’s taxes, which echos the dishonorable attacks that Harry Reid used on him.  On that subject I think Stacy McCain’s point from 2012 that I quoted in this post applies:

What I believe is this: Whatever Harry Reid knows about Mitt Romney’s taxes, he obtained from Democrat Party sources who, in turn, got it via the leaking of this confidential information from IRS officials to individuals affiliated with the Obama campaign.

Reid is lying — mischaracterizing his sources — to conceal the fact that the Obama campaign has illegally obtained Romney’s IRS forms.

But don’t expect me to prove that accusation. I don’t think the burden should be on me. The burden should be on Harry Reid. He’s the one I’ve alleged is part of a Nixonian conspiracy at the White House. Why didn’t Harry identify his sources?

In fact the only thing more outrageous than Romney’s attack on Trump’s taxes based on zero evidence is Harry Reid attacking him for it (I’m not kidding)

But for all this nonsense there problem remains: How do you beat Donald Trump?  Right now that’s the only question on the floor and if your candidate isn’t thinking along those lines, he’s not serious and needs to drop out.

The only way to do this is to either bring in new voters for yourself but none of the candidates have the reach to the general public that Trump has so that’s not practicable, the other way is to discourage Donald Trump voters from voting, I don’t see that working either since any attack on Trump simply angers the Trump voter and produces attacks that are not easily countered given his social media reach.

That leaves only one other card. Somehow Make the case to the Donald Trump voter to vote for you instead.

While this is a longshot it is the only viable plan short of the GOP changing it’s convention rules, to stop Trump. You need to persuade these voters that not only are you with them but you’ve been with them since day 1.

On it’s face this seems ridiculous and for Marco Rubio it would be.  His embrace of the gang of 8 makes it impossible and for John Kasich his embrace of obamacare makes it doubly so.  Ben Carson might be able to try such a pitch but he can’t make a case any different than Mr. Trump can.

However  there is one candidate who actually is in a position to make this case. In fact he is in perfect position to do so.

That man is Ted Cruz.

Here’s how.

At tonight’s debate when invited to attack Donald Trump, and believe me CNN will,  Ted Cruz should say something along these lines.

“Actually rather than attack Donald Trump I’d like to thank him. He has energized thousands of new GOP voters, voters who are tired of the party ignoring them on Amnesty, ignoring them on Obamacare, ignoring them on Radical Islam and Ignoring them on Common Core. Mr. Trump has talked about these issues and they have entered the national conversation.”

“And I thank him again for it again, because for years I have been in Washington fighting tirelessly to stop Amnesty so I’m pleased to see Donald Trump adding his words to my actions, for years I have been in Washington fighting tirelessly to defund and stop Obamacare and I’m pleased to see Donald Trump add his words to support my actions, for years I’ve been in Washington fighting tirelessly to get this administration to acknowledge the danger and reality of radical Islam and I’m pleased to see Donald Trump add his voice to support my fight and for years I’ve been making the fight in Washington against Common Core and I’m simply delighted to have Donald Trump add his words to support my fight.

And to those new voters who want to make America Great again, who are angry about Obamacare, Amnesty, Common Core and worried about radical islam I say to you your fight is the one I’ve been fighting for years. Donald Trump’s words are great and I’m pleased to hear them, but if you want someone in the White House that has actually fought these fights that you care about. I ask you for your vote.”

Furthermore every single time Donald Trump brings up these issues in the debate Ted Cruz should affirm these issues that Trump raising AND point to the solid steps that he Ted Cruz has done to achieve them.

I suggest that this is the right way to go for several reasons:

1. It complements Donald Trump for raising these issues that other candidates are ducking
2. It affirms the voters who have come out for Trump noting that their concerns are valid rather than attacking them
3. It brings up Ted Cruz’s record on all of these issues, a record that is superior to all the Non-Trump candidates
4. It notes the difference between Talking about an issue, and DOING something bout an issue
5. It does all of these things without actually attacking Trump.
6. It’s an honest and straightforward case as opposed to the Romney tax BS

I don’t deny this is a going to be a tough sell, but until anyone else comes up with a better way to attract the Donald Trump voters I submit and suggest this is the best plan out there and frankly better than anything an expensive consultant is throwing out there.  And if anyone has a better plan I’d be delighted to hear it.

Good Luck.

Update: At the Weekly Standard (via Insty) they are thinking differently

In his indispensible newsletter, the Transom, Ben Domenech makes a profound observation about tonight’s debate: The best way to become the “Not Trump,” is to beat Trump. And the way to beat him isn’t to argue that he’s a meanie or detail his ideological inconsistencies. It’s to go full-alpha and nuke him from orbit.

I don’t think that will play with Trump voters myself

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It’s 6:31 PM and we have 5 1/2 hours to make the $9 dollars we are shy of our daily goal of $61 and $1282 behind our daily goal for the year (just over 21 days short) that can keep the mortgage and the writers paid.

To those who have kicked in (particularly new subscribers of which we need 114.5 @ $10 a month guarantee our goal every day), thanks ever so much.

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Either way thanks for reading and don’t be shy about letting us know what you think. One can’t improve without critique.

Ohila: All you’re doing is giving her hope.
12th Doctor: Since when is hope a bad thing?
Ohila: Hope is a terrible thing on the scaffold.

Doctor Who: Hell Bent 2015

It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.

Richard P. Feynman. (Via Don Surber)

One of the nasty things about reality is it tends to make mincemeat out of the pleasant illusions that people who wish to deny it. It doesn’t always happen fast and it tends to involve many twists and turns but sooner or later reality like a dripping stream over a boulder wears things down.

Yesterday’s Nevada caucus is a great example of the illusion shattering power of reality as it has caused many myths about the GOP primary to bite the Dust.

Myth #1 Donald Trump has a ceiling of 34 percent or so.

On Tuesday in Nevada Donald Trump managed to pull 46% of the vote. Granted that as a hotel mogul running in a state where the hospitality industry is huge one might expect him to do well but to pull 46% in a five person race is simply astounding.

Myth #2 Donald Trump can’t win caucus states.

Donald Trump two wins prior to Nevada were both in primary states where all you have to do is show up. His only loss came in a caucus state (Iowa) where voting is a time consuming event leading to the theory that the disinterested Trump voters wouldn’t put the time in for a caucus. Nevada proves this theory completely wrong.

Myth #3  Once Candidates Drop out Trump will Lose

We keep hearing the “if enough people drop out Trump will eventually lose because all those votes are anti-Trump” Well Jeb Bush dropped out after South Carolina and Trump’s percentage of the vote increased by 14% while Marco Rubio’s increased by 2% and Ted Cruz’s decreased by 1%.

Myth #4 If only Cruz & Rubio Team up they can beat Trump

In Nevada Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio combined for 45.3% of the vote. Donald Trump won 45.9% of the vote.

Myth #5 Marco Mentum

As much as the GOP establishment would like to pretend otherwise Marco Rubio has no momentum and his strategy of declaring victory after every crushing defeat simply makes him look like a fool.

Myth #6 The Ground game

My Candidate is and remains Ted Cruz, I believe he is he best choice due to his record and he has built an impressive ground game, but when you are dealing with states where you don’t have months to campaign and voters who might not have been paying attention until the week of the primary or caucus a ground game of activists without a comparable media game is comparable to an army attacking without air cover, it’s just not enough.

Myth #7 Conservatism is the key

Of all the myths that have been shattered this is the one toughest for me to admit. Ted Cruz’s line of attack vs Donald Trump that he doesn’t have a conservative record is completely accurate and one of the primary reasons why I can’t even consider Trump over Cruz, but while there might be enough conservatives in the country to deny a GOP nominee victory in a general election if they stay home, Trump’s success demonstrates that there are not enough hardcore conservatives to deny a GOP candidate the nomination if your candidate has enough across the board support.

Myth #8 Specifics vs Broad Outlines

I can’t tell you how many times we’ve heard pundits on TV say “Candidates need to provide specifics” and reporter decry the lack of such plans. The reality is the only people who bother with specifics are the uber geeks who make up the tiniest part of the electorate and the media who wish to use said specifics to bring a candidate down. People who are actually living their lives are looking for the broad outlines. “Build a wall” Stop Radical Islam, Destroy ISIS, Make America great”. If you sell those ideas the voters will let you worry about the details

Myth #9 You HAVE to follow FOXCNNMSNBCTWITTERDRUDGE every second of the evening the night of an election.

This one is a tad facetious but Tuesday night I decided I didn’t want to stay up to wait for the caucus results so I hit the sack letting my body continue to adjust to a normal sleep scheduled vs the 10:30-7 AM shift I had before my layoff a week ago last night. Amazingly when I woke up the next day the world was still there and all the info I wanted about the Nevada results were not only available but free of the speculation of the media trying, much like the climate change crew, that long shot eventualities are a real possibility.

Now I’m sure post Nevada we are going to get a whole new batch of myths sold to us in the hope that it causes us to either watch the various networks or vote a particular way or consider the race over. Right now if fair to say that Trump is the presumptive nominee unless one of the other candidates figure out a way to beat him. That’s not impossible but unless something changes dramatically it’s becoming increasingly improbable.

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And it is a common saying that it is best first to catch the stag, and afterwards, when he has been caught, to skin him.

Henry De Bracton

I find myself constantly amazed at the insistence of partisans of Marco Rubio that not winning any primaries or caucuses is the path to the GOP nomination.

While it inspired a parody song out of me based on “Show Me” from the musical “My Fair Lady”  I think that Bill James in his 1985 Historical Baseball Abstract tells a story whose 100th anniversary this year illustrates the point better than my musical interlude.

In 1916 Hughie Jennings manager of the Detroit Tigers got a letter from a young man who claimed that he could strike out the Ty Cobb on three pitches anytime and anywhere.

Cobb by this time was the best hitter in Baseball.  By 1916 his twelfth season had already led the league in batting (including two seasons hitting over .400) nine times.  He lead the league in hits six times, on base percentage 5 times, stolen bases, RBI’s &runs 4  times, triples & doubles twice and Home Runs once including winning the Triple crown in 1909.

Despite this Jennings decided to risk the 1.80 train fare for the kid to come to Detroit to see what he had and when the 6′ 4″ kid turned up and was ready Cobb came to the plate.  I’ll Let Mr. James pick up the narrative from here:

Cobb hit his first pitch against the right field wall.  his second pitch went over the right field wall.  The third pitch went over the center field wall.  Cobb ws thinking they ought to keep this guy around to help him get into a groove.

“Well” said Jennings.  “What do you have to say?”

the Pitcher stared in hard at the batter’s box.  “You know, ” he said , “I don’t believe that’s Ty Cobb in there.”

Alas for the young man wishful thinking and confident talk was not enough to convince Jennings to grant the kid a roster spot.

That’s Marco Rubio all over.

Marco Rubio is a good young pol who has, except on the issue of illegal immigration, done well so far.  I do not doubt for a moment that he has an even brighter future ahead of him.

But when he boasts of his performance in the 2016 primary season, where despite many high profile endorsement he has failed to win a single race, he sounds like the young kid in this story boasting of his skill while throwing fat Pitches to Ty Cobb without getting a single one by him.

It makes him and his supporters look like fools, that’s bad, but it also means he takes us for fools as well.

That’s worse.

Ok We’ve now had three primaries and my man Ted Cruz has won 1, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd once.  A pretty good record so far.  In baseball that would be a .333 avg.

Marco Rubio who is being celebrated by the pundits and the party as the man to watch has one 2nd place finish and one 3rd place finish and a 5th.  And for all of the glowing words of his supporters he has yet to win a race (somebody should write a song about that)

John Kasich has managed one 2nd place victory and hasn’t done better than 5th anywhere else.

And Ben Carson has not finished higher than 4th.

Yet right now all the talk on the cable news and in the media seems to be:

 How the GOP establishment is rallying around Marco Rubio 

How the party is trying to talk Kasich into puling out to enable Rubio

How the party is trying to keep Ben Carson in to counter Ted Cruz

All of this seems to ignore a simple fact:  Donald Trump

In three contests thus far Donald Trump has won two of them and came in 2nd in the other.

 

If Mr. Trump did not run and Jeb Bush had done this everyone would have declared the race over.

If Mitt Romney had done this in 2012 the pundits would have declared the GOP race over.

Yet the only thing anyone seems to be talking about is which guy is going to take Trump out.

This is ridiculous.

Donald Trump is the front-runner.  He has not only won two contests out of three but more importantly after losing the first contest that he was expected to win was able to learn from it and make the necessary adjustments.

Furthermore he has been winning by increasing GOP turnout to record levels bringing in new voters anxious to hear his two primary messages:

No Amnesty

Stopping Radical Islam

These two primary messages have overshadowed gaffes and contradictions that would have doomed a less popular candidate, but Trump’s base and audience are larger than the media which would dearly love to destroy him and beyond the reach of the GOP establishment which has no influence on the people who support him.

These are the facts and no amount of wishful thinking, establishment endorsements or optimistic spin will change it.

So what IS being done to change it?

From Ben Carson?  Little or nothing.  In an open primary was unable to persuade large amounts of the black electorate to cross over to support him, and unless he has some kind of secret weapon up his sleeve his campaign has no prayer of winning anywhere let alone stopping trump.

From John Kasich?  Not much more.  He isn’t even trying in most of the upcoming states and seems to be staking his hopes on Ohio but doesn’t have the cash or the backing to get anywhere.

From Marco Rubio?  His plan seems to be to keep pretending he’s winning even when he doesn’t under the assumption that he has a divine right to the votes of candidates as they drop out which will eventually raise him over Trump but until he proves he can win somewhere anywhere, all of Rubio’s talk mean nothing.

Only my guy Ted Cruz has managed to beat Trump at least once and unihas continued to attack him using his Trump own words and actions to illustrate him as not a reliable conservative, however even with his strong forward thinking ground game his attacks are blunted by Trump’s ability to attract voters who are not interested in conservative principles.

But if any of them plan on beating Donald Trump they will need to do two things:

Admit that Donald Trump is currently leading:

Adapt their campaigns to deal with Mr. Trumps success.

Reality is what it is and until you admit to reality, you can’t change it.

And the Clock is ticking

 

I was laid off this week from my 3rd shift job so my plan to use said job to pay the mortgage while using the site to get out of debt in a couple of years is out the window unless we suddenly get 125 subscribers at $10 a month. When I say I could use a hand right now I’m not kidding. (We picked up the equivalent of 6 such subscribers this weekend 119 more @$10 a month to go)

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The Marco Rubio Campaign is rightly crowing over winning the Gov Nikki Haley sweepstakes in SC

Team Cruz supposedly made a “feverish bid” for her support, pitching her on the idea that her criticism of Trump in her SOTU rebuttal had damaged her populist cred and backing Cruz would be one way to restore it. Team Jeb had been courting her for ages, believing that Haley’s backing would have been a shot of credibility for his candidacy that Bush could take to his wavering donors as proof that even the party’s young stars still believe he’s in this thing. (George W. Bush made a point of complimenting Haley in his speech at Jeb’s rally this week.) I wonder what would have happened if either of them had showed some strength in recent polls of SC. If Cruz and Trump were neck and neck with Rubio a distant third, Haley might have concluded that Rubio was on his way out of the race and it was Cruz or bust. If, on the other hand, Jeb was neck and neck with Rubio for third, that might have been enough for Haley to roll the dice on him as the center-right’s best chance. As it is, despite his setback in New Hampshire, Rubio’s done well enough lately to make him the safest pick for Haley.

Now endorsements are nice they make a great photo op and conventional wisdom say they are big, but as I recall from the NFL playoffs conventional wisdom said the Patriots would defeat Denver who currently possess the Lombardy Trophy (although in fairness Tom Brady was a 2 pt conversion away after one of the most dramatic comeback TD’s in history with seconds left to proving them all right).

Or to put it another way, while on Twitter Robio fans are, with reason, crowing, none of these endorsements mean a thing unless Rubio wins

National Review via politico notes what this does to the Rubio campaign

“He has the very popular sitting governor, very popular junior senator, very popular upstate congressman. He has every favorable position going for him that he could ever hope to have,” Miller said of Rubio. “If Rubio can’t win here, under these favorable circumstances, where can he win?”

This is smart spin, aimed at inflating Rubio’s expectations in the run-up to Saturday’s primary. It’s also an entirely fair observation. Rubio’s team insists they are focused on winning a long-term delegate fight against Trump and Cruz. Yet both of those candidates have already notched wins. Sooner or later, to sustain the perception of viability, Rubio will need to win somewhere. And it’s not unreasonable to ask, as Miller did: If Rubio can’t win here, with most of the state’s Republican apparatus supporting him, where can he?

Think about that a second, in every poll I’ve seen out of SC Rubio trails Trump by a ton and Cruz by a little.  Even Rubio can’t beat Trump in SC where can he beat him and if he finishes behind Cruz then it’s even worse.

Or to put it another way, after SC Trump and Cruz are likely to win place or show in every primary to this point, even with a win Marco will not be able to say that and if he finishes 2nd he barely shows himself more viable than John Kasich.

That’s inspiring as hell isn’t it?

On the bright side, even if he finishes 3rd he’s still doing better than Jeb.

Update: Cue Julie Andrews

Or Audrey Hepburn

C’mom Marco show me

Update 2:  Yes I know Marni Nixon dubbed her in the movie here is the soundtrack

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Yesterday I talked about the media narrative and how, no matter what the result, the narrative would already be in place.

Anyone who watched the coverage yesterday and today can recognize this.

 

Just a week ago, we were told by the talking heads that Donald Trump’s 2nd place finish by 4 pts was a crushing defeat that it brought questions about if Mr. Trump was for real.  At the same time Marco Rubio’s 3rd place finish was the sign that his time had come, the media was all Rubio all the time.  Endorsements poured in and Marco mentum was the rule of the day.

Not so Ben Carson whose 4th place was an afterthought, nor Ted Cruz whose actual victory seemed to mean nothing because NH is different kettle of fish (do people put fish in a kettle)?

 

Well now we’ve seen NH and we’ve learned some interesting things.

 While finishing 2nd place by 4 pts is a crushing defeat in Iowa in NH 2nd place by 18 points is a great victory that can propel a candidate to the upper tier of the GOP field even if said candidate didn’t manage to crack 10% in Iowa.

We learned that while 3rd place by 2 pts in Iowa is an incredible finish that gives a candidate momentum 3rd place in NH by 4 point is no big deal even in a state where you aren’t expected to do well.

We’ve further learned that while 4th place in Iowa is not even worth mentioning 4th place in NH revives a campaign and guarantees a candidate can go on even if that 4th place finish is the best said candidate has done so far.

And most odd of all we’ve seen that a first place finish by a wide margin is less newsworthy than finishing 2nd.

How can this be?  Well it’s very simple.

For the MSM Jeb Bush and John Kasich are the most liberal members of the GOP field supporting Obamacare, Common Core & Illegal Immigration and thus the easiest for Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders to defeat, therefore any meme that potentially advances their chances to get the GOP nomination is to be given the full force of the msm.

Ted Cruz opposes all of those things, thus in Iowa his 1st place finish is eclipsed by Marco Rubio and his 3rd place finish is eclipsed by Jeb Bush because under no circumstances shall any scenario that advances his candidacy be advanced.

Finally while the media absolutely hates Donald Trump they fear Ted Cruz.  Therefore while they will downplay Trump’s win for now they will hold their fire under the assumption that it might come down to Trump vs Cruz and in that case they will go all in for the Donald.

Never forget that the media’s stories are already written, it’s only a question of shoehorning the facts to fit them.

 

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I remain in bed, unable to stand for more than a few minutes with my head spinning and unable to hold down even dry cereal.

The irony is that these symptoms which are considered normal in the aftermath aftermath of my illness could go on for months and continue to cost me days of work that I can’t afford to miss.

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If anyone tells you that they know what’s going to happen today in NH they are full of it.

However while the actual results of the evening are totally up in the air, the MSM memes for today are completely predictable.

DONALD TRUMP:


If Donald wins this by more than 10 pts

MSM will start talking inevitably and declare that only the #2 finisher (unless it’s Ted Cruz) has a prayer to stop him and the talk will be if the establishment decides to go all in.

If Donald trump wins by less that 10 pts (my best guess)

MSM meme will be Trump is vulnerable and MSM will extol the virtues of any 2nd or 3rd place finisher not named Ted Cruz as the alternative to Trump.

If Trump loses to any person not named Ted Cruz.

Said person will be lionized and the Trump campaign declared a paper tiger, they will really cheer if it’s a Bush or Kasich.

If Trump loses to Ted Cruz

Mass Seppuku among members of the MSM and the Party will go all out to push whoever is 2nd.

TED CRUZ

See above if he wins

If Cruz finishes in 2nd or 3rd.

Media will pretend he doesn’t exist and will push the other 2nd or 3rd place finisher , if he gets 3rd by less that 2 pts they’ll push the 4th place person as advancing too.

If Cruz finishes 4th or below , even by one vote

MSM will treat him as a one trick pony and pretend his national campaign is doomed.

 

MARCO RUBIO

If Rubio finishes 2nd or 3rd

He will  be pushed as he alternative to Donald Trump unless a governor finishes 2nd then Rubio will be hit as a guy on the decline.

If Rubio finishes 5th or below

He will be written off by the MSM

 

JEB BUSH, JOHN KASICH, CHRIS CHRISTIE (who can tell the difference anymore?)

 

If any one of them finish in 2nd -4th

Said candidate will be dubbed the “Winner” of NH Establishment primary which will be treated as more important than actually winning..  If more than 1 finishes in the top 4 both will be cheered.

If the finish is 2nd place said candidate will be treated  as if they actual won NH even if they are 20+ pts behind the winner.

Any finish by a gov below 4th and said candidate will be told it’s time to go.

Note Jeb Bush will be treated as if he finished one level ahead of whatever spot he finishes at.

BEN CARSON

Unless he finishes 4th or above he will be totally ignored except to blame Ted Cruz for said finish.

MSM will do their best to keep Carson in the race in the hope that he will hurt Ted Cruz in the south.

 

CARLY FIORINA

Unless she finishes top 4 MSM will say it’s time to go.  If she finishes top 4 with Cruz and Rubio may become de facto Establishment alternative

 

JIM GILMORE

If he finishes about any other candidate it will be treated as  a victory.  If he does not then he’ll tweet out that he’s now in the top 5-8 depending on how many candidates drop out.

MY PREDICTION:  The only candidate that drops out post NH is Chris Christie unless Kasich finishes 6th then he’ll consider it.

 

The Democrats:

BERNIE SANDERS

If Sanders wins by less that 15 points.

MSM will treat result as a great Clinton Comeback and Bill will talk about Hillary as the 2nd coming of the comeback kid.  If it’s single digits it will be considered the Clinton miracle.

If Sanders wins by 15+

Bloomberg is in, Biden is maybe in and Hillary & Bill launch an all out campaign to destroy him that will make the attacks at Ken Starr look like nothing.

 

HILLARY CLINTON

If somehow Hillary Clinton wins

It’s all over for Bernie & the FBI investigation

 

The chances of Hillary being indicted are directly related to how well she does.

My best guess (Bernie by 12)

 

All of this is fun but remember this above all:

 

The actual results are secondary to the the meme the MSM wants to push, those have already been determined.  The only question is will the results allow those memes to be credible.

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Today my plan had been to take a day off of work, head to NH, visit some polling places and finish at the Ted Cruz event in Hollis.

Instead I’m in bed, unable to stand for more than a few minutes with my head spinning and unable to hold down even dry cereal.

The irony is that these symptoms which are considered normal in the aftermath aftermath of my illness could go on for months and continue to cost me days of work that I can’t afford to miss.

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Today on Morning Joe it’s been all about “Marco Rubio and accomplishments” fueled by the inability of Rick Santorum to name one.

They’ve been all in on the “lack of Rubio accomplishments” meme that Chris Christie launched in the debate and in fairness it’s not an unreasonable argument to make about a 1st term Senator running for President.

However there is an irony here that everyone seems to miss.

Let me take you back to April of 2014 Bill Kristol is on the Morning Joe table and he asked the assembled members of the press there to name an accomplishment not of first term senator from Florida or Texas, but of Hillary Clinton a Two term senator, former Secretary of State first lady and former presidential candidate. Here is what happened.

The full segment is here.

I’ve been talking about this subject for three years and nobody in the MSM seems to be interested in it.

Unexpectedly

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The good news is that both my face and web traffic have recovered. January 2016 marks the 4th straight month of recovery and the doldrums of 2014 & early 2015 seem completely behind.

The bad news is DaTipjar has not recovered to 2013 levels yet. With a $62 a day avg goal as of Jan 30th we’re reached where I hoped we’d be January 7th, just over 25%.

Given where the economy is rather than where the MSM pretends it is and that it is January both are understandable and to those who have kicked in (particularly subscribers), thanks much.

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There is a lot to say about Iowa’s results and I’ll be saying it a bit later but I want to note one story from the results in Iowa that is getting no press.

As you know by now Ted Cruz won Iowa with 28% of the vote Trump came in 2nd and Rubio came in 3rd with 24% Ben Carson finished 4th.

There is something about this result that jumps out at me right away.

For years we’ve been told about the xenophobic, bigoted GOP that doesn’t care for blacks and Hispanics yet with 12 candidates on the ballot, 9 whites, one black and 2 hispanic for the party Iowa republicans gave the victory to a Hispanic candidate, gave 3rd place to another hispanic candidate and 4th place to a black candidate.

Between Cruz Rubio and Carson over 60% of GOP votes went to candidates of color in the state of Iowa.

Given the MSM’s meme of the GOP as a bunch of racists I’d think that would be big news yet nobody is talking about what this says concerning the GOP and diversity and race.

I wonder why?

Update: On Morning Joe Sam Stein just touted the 1st woman to “apparently” win the Iowa caucus but had nothing to say about the 1st Hispanic to win an Iowa caucus.

Unexpectedly

Update 2: Lindsey Graham with a straight face just said on Morning Joe that Marco Rubio & Ted Cruz will hurt the GOP with hispanics if nominated because nothing turns off hispanics like nominating the 1st ever hispanic to the top of a major party ticket.

You’ll never lack a spot on MSNBC if you’re a republican willing to declare the GOP out of touch with hispanics & woman.

Update 3: Iowahawk

Update 4: John Nolte at Breitbart notices

Because the DC Media believe it is a powerful weapon that benefits Democrats, nothing will ever stop them from using it. But if this same media truly believed in science and objectivity, the results in Iowa would forever end their relentless smears against conservatives as racists. Tuesday night, one of the whitest and most conservative states in the country — Iowa — gave 60% of the Republican vote to two Hispanics and a black man.

Update 5 Made this prediction just before Jake tapper’s show: on CNN started

23 minutes he did just that in an interview with the GOP chair

Which begs the obvious question

I’d love a good answer to that.

Update 6: Days later the Washington post finally asks the question and of course downplays any suggestion of media bias.

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The good news is that while my face has not fully recovered, web traffic has. January 2016 marks the 4th straight month of recovery and the doldrums of 2014 & early 2015 seem completely behind.

The bad news is DaTipjar has not recovered to 2013 levels yet. With a $62 a day avg goal as of Jan 30th we’re reached where I hoped we’d be January 7th, just over 25%.

Given where the economy is rather than where the MSM pretends it is and that it is January both are understandable and to those who have kicked in (particularly subscribers), thanks much.

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As of this moment the only think we know for sure about Iowa is the fact that hotel room prices are about to drop like a rock.

As I will be at work with no access to a radio or the net my first knowledge of the results in Iowa will, unless I take my laptop with me as I have no smartphone, either at 7 AM or what people with smartphones tell me during breaks.

It’s my opinion that Ted Cruz will put it out, that the turnout thanks to the storm will not grow as much and his ground game will make the difference. It’s also my opinion that not enough people will choose to vote strategically (although it’s the pragmatic thing to do) to turn the Donald Trump events into victory.

It’s also my opinion that Sanders wins simply because to the young Sanders voter the caucus itself is like a Trump event & they’ll so because it’s an event, plus there is enough fear in Hillary voters to make the difference.

But even if I’m wrong and it’s Trump Cruz vs Cruz Trump what’s next? Since I’m obliged to write thing before I have any clue what has actually happened here is what I think:

If TED CRUZ wins by a lot:

An unlikely scenario, but if it happens it will make a huge difference in NH guaranteeing him top 3. This will require cause a bloodbath in NH as the big three establishment candidates plus Rubio fight for their lives. Jeb Bush may decide to back out of NH all together and decide to go all in for SC in order to retain the donor class. But it also becomes last stand for Kasich and Christie, particularly if Rubio finishes a strong 3rd.

It also means that Ted Cruz’s already formidable ground & money advantage increases greatly

As far as the Establishment goes a big Ted Cruz win means decision time. It’s all in to stop him, but to who, Trump, Rubio or Bush? If the Cruz win comes with a Trump collapse then suddenly the the old rules apply again and Bush rises from the grave as Stacy McCain fears.

If TED CRUZ wins by a little (my best guess):

Then all the conventional wisdom that the pundits have talked about continues, Trump in this case likely does well enough to ensure a NH win (unless he collapses then Rubio become the Stop Ted Establishment fan.

All the Ted Cruz wins by a lot scenario’s above apply to a lesser degree including the panic. It also gives the GOP establishment a little time to put off their decision as to what to do.

If Trump comes a close second expect him to be like the US Army after Kasserine, someone who learns a lot from an initial defeat. He will go after Cruz like there is no tomorrow.

If Donald Trump wins by a little

Then NH is his, Cruz might settle to 3rd or 4th there and it sets him up well for continued success. In one respect a close win is best for Trump as it confers the victory he needs with the lessons that a close call can teach.

Cruz will be pilloried by the MSM for losing in this case in an attempt to write him off (it will fail) and it might tempt some campaigns that should end to continue at least to NH or SC) It will also give new hope to Christie and Carson and be a boon to Rubio. If somehow Rubio finishes 2nd to Trump (very unlikely) then he will become the defacto GOP Trump alternative

If Donald Trump wins by a lot

The whole game is blown up. NH is his, Nevada is likely his and the Bush SC plan is in deep trouble. Ted Cruz holds on in the south & will need to rally there. NH becomes a fight for 2nd place but the GOP establishment might just decide that they had better hit the Trump Bandwagon NOW rather than later, unless Rubio comes 2nd & then they might decide to go that way.

It’s possible that this helps Bush the most since with Cruz disposed of he has the biggest donor network to actually compete.

This is the only Scenario where I see either Huckabee or Santorum getting to NH

Final thought: If any candidate other than Trump, Cruz or Rubio finish in the top 3 THAT becomes the subhead in the GOP no matter what the result. If it’s an establishment guy NH goes completely insane.

Note: If suggestions that Carson is thinking of dropping that have just been reported, all bets are off.

Democrats:

If Bernie Sanders wins by a lot:
The Trump explosion squared. DNC panic and the Biden & Bloomberg stuff goes into overdrive. Both the “stop Bernie” and the “Replace Hillary NOW!” plans go into full swing and the Clintons find themselves fighting for their political lives. At this point the black community will have to choose a side. The Clintons will tell them to name their price and pay it, but they might just see what the Replace Hillary Now and Bernie camps might offer for their support.

It’s possible that the Obama administration and the Clinton’s go into mutually assured destruction mode. That all depends on what threats get made by the Clinton’s or the Administration in an attempt to either force them to back her or pressure her to leave. MSN in full panic mode.

If Bernie Sanders wins by a little (my best guess)

The slow Clinton bleed continues and all the tough decisions that a big Bernie win would force are delayed. Again Clinton appeals to the minority community to be her firewall post NH but minor defections continue. The DNC decides to sweat it out for NH in the hopes that Hillary can recover post NH. The whispers of indictment continue but aren’t enough to go anywhere yet. It’s all wait and see.

If Hillary wins by a little.

Most of the DNC panic dissipates, suddenly Biden & Bloomberg are silent. Nothing from Justice but the infighting in the FBI over the rule of law continues but is suppressed by Obama. In many ways this is the optimum result for the left because it solves problems without forcing their hand totally. The one danger for the DNC is if there is any sign of a “dirty tricks”, then the Democrat activist revolt will make Chicago 1968 look like a Victorian Picnic.

If Hillary wins by a lot:

It’s all over, no indictments, Justice covers for her and the FBI is caught between outrage and resignation. The press goes all in to cover for her and turns all it’s attention to destroying Trump or Cruz.

Final thought. The MSM goal is to advance whatever scenario helps elect Hillary to the White House and destroys first Ted Cruz than the GOP. If you keep that in mind in the coverage of Iowa over the next 24 hours, then you will not be surprised.

(Fyi the GOP goal is to destroy Ted Cruz so in that half of the coverage they and the MSM will be working together.

When viewed in an inertial reference frame, an object either remains at rest or continues to move at a constant velocity, unless acted upon by an external force

Newton’s 1st law of Motion

Lyndon Johnson’s loss had been due a political fluke. He had been beaten not by his opponent’s friends but by his opponent’s foes. 

Lyndon Johnson the Path to Power

A few days ago I saw a piece concerning Iowa that crunched the numbers in Iowa that suggest Donald Trump is going to have more trouble than he thinks in Iowa.

Really, so in order to justify Trump’s lead, somehow 50,000 more caucus attendees will have to show up and vote for Trump than have ever shown up before. Trump has 12 paid staffers in Iowa, led by Tana Goetz, a 48-year-old former runner up on “The Apprentice.” Wow, what raw horsepower.

He contrasts that to Ted Cruz:

Cruz has over 1,000 precinct chairs, a 240-plus person leadership team and over 5,000 volunteers in every one of Iowa’s 99 counties (all of which Cruz has pledged to visit before the caucuses, and it looks like he’ll make it happen). They’re led by seasoned professionals such as Jake Dagel, who was field director for Turning Point USA.

It’s a devastating  analysis but it overlooks one very important thing, and that’s strategic voting

While the GOP doesn’t have the same process as the dems who can, if the supporters of a candidate can’t get enough people to go with them to advance go with another candidate, it’s going to be very apparent very early if an attendee’s candidate has a shot in their district.

When that happens then it will be time for voters to decide:  “Do I stick with my guy or do I think strategically?”

Think if you are a Jeb Bush, or a Chris Christie, or a John Kasich guy.  Your man isn’t going to win Iowa, you likely won’t even finish in the top 3.  What is your game plan to win the nomination?

If you’re Jeb Bush guy, you need to be the last non-Trump man standing.  So you have to stop Ted Cruz.

If you’re Chris Christie or John Kasich you have to finish in the top 3 in NH, you aren’t likely to stop Donald Trump there so you have to stop Ted Cruz.

You’re Carly Fiorina, Trump is a perfect foil for your campaign, Ted Cruz is not so you have to stop Ted Cruz.

and it’s not just establishment types thinking this;

You’re a Mike Huckabee or a Rick Santorum supporter, your only prayer (assuming you have one) is to cancel out the one guy who has taken the votes you won with in 2008  & 2012 so that you can win in the south so you have to stop Ted Cruz.

You are Ben Carson voter, you know your man who has the potential to attract voters in the south who might normally not vote in a GOP primary but you have to get to those primaries with a campaign still alive so you have to stop Ted Cruz.

Your Rand Paul voter, you can’t allow libertarians to be looking for another principled alternative so you have to stop Ted Cruz.

The only candidate with a disincentive to this is Marco Rubio, the NYT not withstanding he needs to keep his guys in line to keep himself viable, a fight between him and Cruz diminishes his rivals and increases him, he needs is folks to boost his numbers at all costs.

Now you might say:  “But Datechguy Iowa is a big conservative state what makes you think there are enough establishment votes to save Iowa for Trump”

My answer.  Mitt lost Iowa by only 8 votes and those Mitt guys are all in for Bush  stopping Cruz.

Bottom line, with the exception of Marco Rubio every single other candidate has an incentive to stop Ted Cruz from winning Iowa, even if it gives the win to Trump.

Trump doesn’t need 50,000 extra voters to show up at the caucus to win, he simply needs enough voters to put the other candidates voters in a spot where they have a pragmatic choice between helping Trump win or helping letting Cruz win.

That is Donald Trump’s secret weapon and don’t think for one moment he doesn’t know it.

P.S.  You’ll not that I didn’t include Jim Gilmore with all due respect for the former gov of VA why would I?

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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

This morning while figuring out what I want to say today I read two posts that clicked in my mind exactly how to explain the GOP establishment.

One of them was at Instapundit and linked to a piece by Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight on Donald Trump & Polls titled One less reason to be skeptical of Trump.

He listed reasons to be skeptical of Trump success and added one that was not data driven saying he expected the GOP Establishment to do all it could to stop him:

But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:

  • The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated.
  • Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better.
  • Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president.
  • An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.)

You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.

Now let’s look at Pastor George Kelly’s of my magnificent seven’s piece Is he or She a Conservative.  It’s the piece that precedes the one you’re reading now on this blog and notes the records of four candidates Rubio, Cruz, Trump and Carson. It’s Rubio & Cruz that I am thinking of here.

  • Senator Marco Rubio possesses a lifetime (ACU) score of 98%. One would venture to say that Mr. Rubio’s impeccable conservative credentials should be beyond dispute.

Alas, this is not the case.

Senator Rubio committed for many Immigration Hawks the unpardonable sin by supporting the GANG of 8’s Immigration Reform measures.  For this he has obtained the wrath of Boarder Security Conservatives.

Nevertheless, Mr. Rubio has been in the Senate for four (4) years and his voting record and public service testify that he is a True Conservative.

State Representative Marco Rubio was Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives when he mounted a race for the US Senate and ran against former Republican Governor Charlie Crist.

Mr. Rubio ran as a Tea Party Conservative; this writer is shocked and somewhat baffled over how anyone could call Marco Rubio “an establishment Republican.”

I’ve actually wondered that myself, I think what’s cost Rubio has been his attempts to spin what he did (or rather the spin of some of his supporters) instead of just saying.  Boy I tanked that didn’t I?  Pastor Kelly continues with Ted Cruz (who I’ve endorsed)

  • A look at Senator Ted Cruz of Texas’s (ACU) scores is equally impressive: Senator Cruz has a lifetime rating of 100%!  This is an astounding voting percentage (two years of Senatorial service).

Mr. Cruz is an intellectual wonder who graduated with distinction from both Princeton and Harvard Law School.

A similarity of both Senators reminds Conservatives of how far they have come since President Obama became President:  Both of these Senators are products of “The Tea Party Movement”; and both men ran against the Republican establishment.

A brief look at the two young Senators (Rubio & Cruz) is a testimony to the Intellectual and Political transformation that has affected our nation since William F. Buckley, Jr. founded “National Review” in 1955.

As the old song states, “You’ve come a Long Way Baby!”

Both Misters Rubio and Cruz are certifiably “CONSERVATIVE!

Now lets consider one other thing.  As Mr. Silver the party establishment is going all out to destroy Ted Cruz in Iowa.  At the same time the big money superpac for THE establishment candidate Jeb Bush who is floundering in both Iowa and NH and currently running 4th in his home state of Florida has been on an advertising blitz in NH going all out attacking not Donald Trump the leader, not Ted Cruz, not John Kasich who is supported by the Sununu family one traditional Bush family allies but Marco Rubio.

This tells me one of two things.

The Establishment GOP is still looking to nominate Bush and the plan is to take out both Cruz and Rubio early so that Jeb can be the only candidate standing as an alternative to Trump, the they can go all in against him.  Cruz gets the big guns attention because of his huge hard money advantage and incredible existing grass roots ground game in half the primary states already  & Rubio is left to Jeb’s moneybags on the theory that without a strong Iowa/NH showing he’ll can’t sustain his campaign long enough to make it to florida or be a threat afterwards leaving it Jeb vs Trump once again with the full might of the GOP ready to fight on Jeb’s side.

Under no circumstances can a conservative with the voting record of either Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz be allowed to be president.  Forget that both would be the first Hispanic to lead a major party ticket, forget Rubio’s gang of eight stuff.  We can’t take the chance that a tea party candidate be the head of the party particularly ones so solidly opposed to abortion.

Given the inability of anyone to land a punch on Trump (although Cruz’s latest ad is devastating) It’s possible that #1 is only Jeb plan.  After all the GOP establishment might be pragmatically thinking that they can’t stop Trump and the time to join is now while they can get something for it rather than later when it means nothing and his cooperation with their priorities will carry a higher price.

But given what I’ve seen of the GOP establishment in Washington , Massachusetts and particularly NH I think #2 is a pretty safe bet.

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9th Doctor: This station is designed to explode the minute it reaches capacity.
Rose: Didn’t anyone notice? Isn’t there someone in London checking this sort of stuff?
Margaret: We’re in Cardiff. London doesn’t care. The South Wales coast could fall into the sea and they wouldn’t notice.

Doctor Who Boomtown 2005

One of the most important things that is constantly ignored by people trying to spin event for their gain is context such as what is currently going one by people who are trying to paint Ted Cruz as supporting Illegal Immigration & gay marriage.

The best way to expose this canard is to put things in their proper context and the best way I can think of doing that is taking a page out of Bill James book and talk about baseball.

Namely Carl Yastrzemski in 1968.

For those not familiar with either Baseball in general or Carl Yastrzemski in particular he was a left fielder for the Boston Red Sox who played from 1961 till 1983. Carl played Left field replacing the immortal Ted Williams while playing the occasional game in center field right field and even third base. With the coming of Jim Rice and the DH era he became a regular 1B and occasional DH in addition to Left Field duties

He was a far superior fielder to Williams winning seven Gold gloves over 23 seasons and also leading the league in outfield assists seven times, but it was his bat that helped him to 18 all star games 3 batting titles 5 on base titles two slugging titles 3 doubles titles and in 1967 became the last player to win the triple crown Hitting .326 with 44 Home Runs and 121 Runs batted in leading in all three categories and getting the Boston Redsox to the world series for the first time in 21 years.

Yaz would retire in 1983 and be promptly voted into the baseball hall of fame along with Johnny Bench both in their first year of eligibility. Yaz snagged 94.6% the 17th highest number of ballots all time but behind Bench that year who got 96.4%.

So pretty much in the 115 years of modern baseball it’s safe to say he was one of the greatest players of all time considered by many in the top 5 left fielders behind Stan Musial, Williams, Ricky Henderson and Barry Bonds and without question in the top 10.

But for the purpose of this piece let’s focus on his 1968 season, which followed his career year.

At first glance it would seem to be a disappointment. Yaz batted .301 a full .025 point drop from his previous year. He hit 23 home runs just over half his total of the prior year, and drove in 74 runs, a far cry from the 121 of the year before.

However let’s take a closer look at these number via a few Topps baseball card backs First in RBI’s

yaz rbi 1969

As you can see Yaz’s RBI’s total was good enough to put him 8th in the league tied with rookie Reggie Jackson and just behind Brooks Robinson but not near his teammate Ken Harrelson who led the league

Well how about those 23 meager Home Runs?

yaz hr

Yet it turns out Yaz 23 Home Runs while 2nd on the Red Sox behind Ken Harrleson’s 35 was good enough for 7th in the league just behind two members of the World Series winning Detroit Tigers (Norm Cash and Bill Freeman) and behind league leader Frank Howard’s 44.

Finally let’s look at his batting avg. How did a .301 average look in 1968? Turns out pretty damn good

yaz avg1969 1

Yup he lead the league in fact not only was he was the only man in the American league to hit over over .300 that year but only one other player even managed to get to .290

yaz avg1969 2.

But the best way to judge how good those stats were are to look at the MVP voting for the year

yaz mvp 1969

Yaz’s numbers were good enough to get him 9th place in the MVP voting in the year of the pitcher. Denny McLain of the World Series Champion Detroit Tigers would win the MVP and two other pitchers would finish tied for 5th in the voting (Luis Tiant & Dave McNally) ahead of him. Yaz would be 6th among position players behind HR leader Frank Howard, RBI leader Ken Harrelson & three Detroit Tigers batters, all who had the advantage of not facing Tiger pitching that year. In fact Yaz would be 1st in a stat not yet invented wins over replacement a full 2 runs against #2 player Brooks Robinson.

So all in all, while at first glance Carl Yastrzemski’s 1968 numbers were not that impressive, particularly compared to the year before based on relative numbers that year IN CONTEXT, he was easily one of the 10 best players in the league.

Now let’s consider Ted Cruz in context on Immigration the favorite attack of the Marco Rubio team, the one that really matters, amnesty.

First remember the reason for this attack from Rubio fans is to cancel out his own problems on the issue, as was evident even as he made appearance in early 2014.

While he touched on one of the elephants in the room (that one being the statue of one next to his podium) he didn’t have a word to say about the other, his support for the Senate Amnesty bill that has been the chief cause of his freefall in NH presidential polls.

Nevertheless his speech was well received and it remains to be seen if with such a large field of excellent GOP candidates to choose from, he will be able to recover his former standing. That pretty much depends on what happens with amnesty in the house.

If the House fails to pass the Amnesty bill then I suspect he will be given a mulligan and be able to make his case.

If however the house passes a bill, and such a bill gets to the president’s desk then Republicans in NH and elsewhere are unlikely to forget, or forgive

This was the cause for the Rubio Regeneration and his decision to stand with Ted Cruz on other issues in 2013

Alas for Rubio McCain was right, he DID get the credit, or rather the blame and now in every pol he falls into the 2nd tier of GOP contenders for 2016.
The field we used for this poll is not exactly the same as April- Ayotte and Cruz replaced Susana Martinez and Rick Perry, who had received little support. But at any rate it’s clear Marco Rubio has fallen precipitously, from 25% then to his current 7% standing.

And that’s why he is sticking with Ted Cruz this time.

While some (OK me) figure Rubio is young and was played, he’s not taking any chances. As long as Ted Cruz continues to fight Marco Rubio stands at his side.

It’s an odd situation, the MSM avoids mentioning or attacking Rubio on the subject saying bluntly he needs to get himself right with the tea party, almost as if they were working under the assumption that he is faking it but more likely because they will need to convince him to vote with them again if amnesty passes the house.

And on the other end while Rubio stands with Cruz in the Senate he isn’t making appearances before conservative groups like the Tea Party. His absence from the DC rally two weeks ago was no accident. He knew if he took that stage the chorus of boos would have been the story.

 

But more importantly than the whys about Marco Rubio’s tactics, what were people saying at the time

 

But as Congress arrives at a key moment in its work to overhaul the nation’s immigration laws, the two stand at opposite ends of the debate on whether to allow the nation’s 11million unauthorized immigrants to become citizens. That divide mirrors the argument within the Republican Party over how to handle the immigration bill — and could end up propelling, or sinking, the two senators as they mull possible presidential runs in 2016.

 

That’s USA today in May of 2013 on Ted Cruz vs Marco rubio. They seem to think they weren’t on the same side, they’re not alone:

NBC Latino June 2013:

Cruz also spoke at Republican Congressman Steve King’s six hour anti-immigration reform press conference on Wednesday where he was greeted with cheers and claps as he maintained his hard stance against the bill. Congressman King was the legislator who introduced an amendment to repeal DACA and deport DREAMers.
In the Tea party rally, however, Senator Marco Rubio’s name wasn’t received so warmly at King’s rally. The once Tea-Party favorite faced a backlash from the crowd gathered in front of the Capitol. Audience members booed at any mention of Rubio’s name. Some attendees carried signs targeting the Florida Republican.

“Marco Rubio has not read his own bill” exclaimed Robert Rector, a researcher for the Heritage Foundation.

National Review notes Chuck Schumer didn’t think Cruz was for it:

Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.), who suggested that Cruz’s opposition to the bill had less to do with his desire for increased border security than with his opposition to a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. (Cruz filed an amendment that would bar illegal immigrants from becoming citizens.) “I would like to point out the border security in the state of Texas is not some abstract concept,” Cruz said, before inviting Schumer and his other colleagues to come visit and see for themselves. “I believe Americans of goodwill, both Republicans and Democrats across this country want the U.S. government to get serious about securing the border.”

Let’s take a look at the vote concerning one Cruz amendment on immigration:

A Senate committee rejected an immigration-legislation amendment offered by Sen. Ted Cruz today that would have added significant security resources along the U.S.-Mexico border.

The amendment proposed tripling the number of Border Patrol agents stationed along the U.S.-Mexico border and quadrupling equipment, “including cameras, sensors, drones and helicopters,” within three years. And the 700 miles of border fence required by a 2006 law would need to be finished.

If the Department of Homeland Security failed to comply, 20 percent of its budget for the next year would be shifted as block grants to border states, giving state officials in Texas, Arizona, California and New Mexico more funds for their own border security efforts. And another penalty: a 20 percent salary cut for the Secretary of Homeland Security and all other political appointees at the department.

The amendment was voted down 13-5, with Sen. John Cornyn supporting his fellow Republican after a brief pause during the roll call.

US News and World Report:

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, a newly elected Republican with a penchant for making headlines, filed an amendment that would bar undocumented immigrants currently living in the United States from ever earning citizenship…Cruz isn’t the only one throwing potential poison pills into the mix.

Poison Pill?

The New Yorker:

The long-awaited immigration-reform bill written by the haplessly named Gang of Eight in the United States Senate got buried this week, not unexpectedly, by a great mudslide of amendments—more than three hundred, at last count…Many were malicious. Senator Ted Cruz, of Texas, proposed that anyone who had ever lived illegally in the U.S. be barred for life from U.S. citizenship. The primary purpose of this overhaul, of course, is to offer the eleven million people believed to be living here illegally the chance to become legal—to give those who qualify a “pathway to citizenship.”

Malicious? Doesn’t sound like support for the bill to me

Huffpo:

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), an almost certain “no” vote on the bill from the so-called gang of eight, filed an amendment on Tuesday to ban anyone who has been in the U.S. without status from becoming a citizen at any point…

Other Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee have also proposed measures that would fundamentally change the bill. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) filed a whopping 77 amendments, while Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) filed 49.

Cruz told conservative commentator Sean Hannity in April that he has “deep concerns” about allowing undocumented immigrants to eventually become citizens.

Jeff sessions filed 49 Amendments to the gang of 8 bill? does that means he supported it too?

Fox Latino:

Supporters of the bill, mainly of the part of it that would legalize millions of undocumented immigrants, kept a steady drumbeat in defense of the measure though emails, websites and social media.In a press release, America’s Voice, a leading national group that advocates for more lenient immigration laws, singled out Cruz’s anti-citizenship amendment as particularly worrisome.

“This would not only destroy the path to citizenship in the Senate bill—the popular heart of an immigration reform solution—but also turn its back on 100 years of precedent in immigration policy,” said the release.

Apparently America’s voice didn’t think Cruz was a supporter of the bill.

Did you remember that Ted Cruz launched a petition against the gang of eight bill? KFYO said at the time:

We will see who has more pull in the Senate right now. Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz. The immigration bill could still be strengthened though. Or Rubio could bail on the Gang of Eight and join with Ted Cruz. Interesting to watch.

Hmmm Cruz vs Rubio here, he also sent an open letter concerning it to congress with his objections which were not just over the amendment:

 

Let’s assume that Joe’s Burger Shack has 100 employees and that at Joe’s Burger Shack, with 100 employees, business is doing relatively well, people are eating more hamburgers, and Joe decides he wants to hire 5 more people. If Joe and Joe’s Burger Shack decide they want to hire five more people, if Joe chooses to hire five U.S. citizens or if he chooses to hire five legal permanent residents–five legal immigrants–Joe faces a penalty of $25,000 for doing so–$5,000 apiece right off his bottom line to the IRS. In contrast, if Joe decides instead to hire five RPIs, who came here illegally among those 11 million who are here illegally but granted RPI legalization under the Gang of 8 bill, Joe pays a penalty of zero dollars.
Let me ask a simple, commonsense question. In this instance, who is Joe, the small business owner, going to hire? This bill creates an enormous incentive to hire those here illegally, and at the same time it does it by creating a statutory penalty for hiring U.S. citizens and for hiring legal immigrants. That makes no sense.

 

And talked to Byron York about it who wrote this:

So Cruz’s amendments were designed to 1) eliminate the legalization-first, security-later structure of the Gang of Eight bill while still creating a way to legalize those now here illegally; 2) increase certain types of legal immigration; and 3) remove what might be called the moral hazard of rewarding those who came here illegally with citizenship and federal benefits. “In introducing amendments, what I endeavored to do was improve that bill so that it actually fixes the problem,” Cruz told me. “I think an overwhelming majority of Americans in both parties wants to see our broken immigration system fixed, wants to see the problem solved, the border secured, and our remaining a nation that welcomes and celebrates legal immigrants. Given that bipartisan agreement outside of Washington, my objective was not to kill immigration reform but to amend the Gang of Eight bill so that it actually solves the problem rather than making the problem worse.”

Each of Cruz’s amendments was entirely defensible, but also entirely impossible in today’s climate. The Gang of Eight bill is a painstakingly-crafted proposal which Democrats would abandon immediately if any of Cruz’s ideas were incorporated in it. Schumer and his allies have a long list of deal-killers, and it includes every single one of Ted Cruz’s ideas.

As Politico reported Cruz said:

“If the objective is to fix the problem, the Democrats have to be willing to compromise.”

They were not and Cruz talked to Rush Limbaugh about it at the time on his show:

RUSH: Yeah, but you don’t expect that hold up, do you? I mean, within a day or two, Senator Schumer’s gonna find a camera and talk about how discriminatory it is. “Here we’ve just granted these people status! We’ve just allowed them to come out of the shadows, and it’s just unconscionable now that we don’t let them vote,” and so a whole new amendment might be made to eliminate the 13 years. Is stuff like that possible, because I don’t blame people who have a cynical view like that.CRUZ: You’re absolutely right. That is certainly coming. It’s why I’ve introduced a number of amendments to try to fix this mess. One amendment that I’ve talked about today on the floor of the Senate is an amendment to put real teeth in border security — this bill has no teeth in border security — to triple the border patrol, to increase fourfold the helicopters, fixed-wing assets, technology on the border, to put in place a strong biometric exit-entry system.

RUSH: Those were all voted down?

CRUZ: They have been, and critically, the most important piece is to say, “Secure the border first, before any legalization.”

And there was also this welfare tidbit

CRUZ: Well, you know, if there’s one thing Washington knows how to do, it’s come up with bogus cost estimates. I mean, we all remember when Obamacare was passed and we were told it would save money, and we’ve now discovered that it’s gonna cost trillions, and it’s only getting worse. You know, the CBO figures just focus on the immediate, short-term impact and not the long-term impact, and they just focus on the federal level. So, for example, the proponents of the Gang of Eight say that no one who is here illegally will be eligible for welfare. In the Judiciary Committee, I submitted an amendment — a very simple sentiment, just a couple of sentences — that said, “No one who is here illegally shall be eligible for any means-tested welfare federal, state, or local.” Every Democrat on the committee and the Republican members of the Gang of Eight all voted against it.

RUSH: Yes! Exactly!

CRUZ: It was very clarifying. When they go and say, “There’s no welfare,” why do they vote against a provision that would make it clear?

and let’s remember what was at state here:

RUSH: We’re talking to Senator Ted Cruz from Texas about the Gang of Eight’s immigration bill. Senator Graham was on TV Sunday, basically said that we need to do this, just as you said, to get back in the good graces of the Hispanic community. And I think you’re right, the consultants are telling Republicans — you know, you can tell somebody anything. The fact they believe this is what’s frightening to me. Because where does this stop, Senator? If, for example, we gotta get back in the good graces of Hispanics, therefore we have to support amnesty and throw out what we believe, then what’s next for abortion? What’s next for gay marriage? What’s next for anything that we disagree with the Democrats on? Well, the gays don’t like you Republicans, and you’d better sign on to gay marriage or you’re never gonna get their support. I mean, it’s the same line of thinking and it has no end to it unless you play it all the way out and the Republican Party ceases to exist.

CRUZ: Rush, you’re exactly right. These same consultants advise on every one of those issues that Republicans give up our principles and become Democrats. You know, I’m always amused when the New York Times writes editorials trying to be helpful to Republicans and say, “This is the way Republicans can save themselves.” Look, the New York Times disagrees with us. They’re entitled to disagree with us, but it’s not like we should take their advice.

RUSH: Well, they don’t want to save us.

CRUZ: That’s exactly right. They want to destroy us.

Ted Cruz understood this in 2013 and still understands it today. Marco Rubio didn’t understand it then which is why he and his supporters are trying to rewrite history on Ted Cruz today. It’s just as nonsensical as claiming Carl Yastrzemski had a bad year in 1968 based on the stats.

Both claims are nonsense and the proof is just a google search away.

I’ll give the last words to Cruz himself

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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other.

Benjamin Franklin

Yesterday Marco Rubio was all over the various networks and several blogs talking about both his CNBC interview and his Today show interview and they are both worth your time.

But  while the interviews in question are generating some buzz it seems nobody has noticed a particular segment piece that while meant to defend himself against the youth & inexperience charge used vs Barack Obama actually makes a devastating case against the candidacy of his VP Joe Biden.

Marco Rubio was asked if the argument against Barack Obama that electing a first term Senator without experience is a bad idea applied equally to him.  Here is the exchange emphasis mine.

Harwood:   One consequence of rising in the polls is that you start seeing your rivals engage with you more  Jeb Bush has raised the issue of your leadership said, suggested you’re a little:  “obamaish.” what do you say about that?

Rubio:  Well first of all I don’t think anyone  running on the Republican side is anything like Barack Obama.  And when people say that what they’re accusing him of is: he didn’t have enough experience or he’s was a senator   You know he’s been president now for seven years he’s got seven years of presidential experience and I still disagree with the decisions he’s making.  I think it’s deeper than the number of years he, I don’t think he would,   if he had been in the senate for 50 years I think he still would have met some of the failures he’s meeting because  his ideas don’t work,  they just don’t work.

Note  Rubio’s point.  Barack Obama’s problem is his ideas are wrong.  Even if he was in congress for 50 years they would be wrong.

And that Brings us to Joe Biden.

Joe Biden was elected to the US Senate in 1972 during the Nixon Landslide and in those nearly 50 years  he has been fighting for the same failed liberal policies  that the Obama administration is pushing today.  Higher taxes , more spending.  Bigger government getting involved in local issues from Education to what a local baker can bake or not.  And on foreign policy again it’s the same from Defeat in Vietnam to Defeat in Iraq & Syria, From obstructing Reagan opposing the Communists in Russia & South America downplaying their threat to Retreating from Russia & Islamist and enabling the Communists in Cuba today  and downplaying the Islamic treat.

Barack Obama has the excuse of being an inexperienced chicago pol, Joe Biden does not.  Experience may keep a dear school but not even nearly 50 years has taught Joe Biden a thing about what works.

Marco Rubio has perfected defined Joe Biden, he’s what Barack Obama will be in 40 years still wrong, still doing his best to enable our enemies and attack American culture & taxpayers at home.

 He nailed it without even trying, well done

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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

By:  Pat Austin

SHREVEPORT – The latest CNN poll reveals nothing more than that Election 2016 is still anyone’s game; well, almost anyone.  I think Kasich, Santorum, and Jindal can hang it up and start vying for positions in a future Republican administration.

Following the CNN debate Carly Fiorina’s numbers have surged and Trump has stumbled a bit.  Carson has also dropped while Rubio has advanced.

This debate was the first one I’ve watched this season.  I wanted to watch to see what I’m missing about Trump – everyone is so thrilled that he is saying things nobody else will say, they’re ready to elect him, it seems.  I remain unconvinced.

Trump does indeed say the most outrageous things.  Several times during this debate my jaw simply dropped in stunned silence that such utterings could come from a supposedly serious presidential contender.  On the subject of whether or not vaccines cause autism, a claim now debunked by science, Trump holds fast:

I am totally in favor of vaccines. But I want smaller doses over a longer period of time. Because you take a baby in — and I’ve seen it — and I’ve seen it, and I had my children taken care of over a long period of time, over a two or three year period of time.

Same exact amount, but you take this little beautiful baby, and you pump — I mean, it looks just like it’s meant for a horse, not for a child, and we’ve had so many instances, people that work for me.

Just the other day, two years old, two and a half years old, a child, a beautiful child went to have the vaccine, and came back, and a week later got a tremendous fever, got very, very sick, now is autistic.

It’s as if the child simply caught a permanent case of flu or something.  Based on nothing whatsoever, Trump concludes that this child “now is autistic” because of “the vaccine.”  Based on what?  A fever?  It’s simply an irresponsible and outrageous claim without real evidence behind it and one that strikes fear in the hearts of parents.  Shame on him.

On the subject of war with Afghanistan, I think Dr. Ben Carson really hurt himself when he indicated that the “bully pulpit” would have been his first choice rather that war after 9/11:

I said, you can do the same kind of thing. Declare that within five to 10 years we will become petroleum independent. The moderate Arab states would have been so concerned about that, they would have turned over Osama bin Laden and anybody else you wanted on a silver platter within two weeks.

There are smart ways to do things and there are muscular ways to do things. And sometimes you have to look at both of those to come up with the right solution.

This puts him straight in the camp with Ron Paul, I think, and while I think Ben Carson is a brilliant and gentle man, he cannot lead this country at this time with this philosophy.  It is naïve at best.

Peggy Noonan’s analysis of this debate was as spot on as any I’ve seen and her remarks on Carly Fiorina perfectly summarize her performance:

Ms. Fiorina has broken through again. This was the debate in which she became an acknowledged heavyweight. She is prepared, has a highly organized mind, and remains collected under the lights in a way that allows her to be what she is, knowledgeable and eloquent. She was brilliant on Planned Parenthood, direct on Mr. Trump and bankruptcy—at this point she’s using him as a foil. Her closing remarks on Lady Liberty and Lady Justice were so strong, the man sitting next to me insisted she must have known the question was coming. She can, however, be too stern. There’s nothing wrong with putting a woman on the currency; it does not erase anyone’s history.

That being said, (and I’m sure I’m about to infuriate a lot of people) I think Carly will most likely end up in the VP slot – and she would be superb there.

As for Rubio, I think he is statesmanlike, knowledgeable, and strong, but too many people simply don’t trust him anymore. I don’t know if he can overcome that.  He will carry that Gang of Eight vote with him like an albatross, yet this is what he says today:

So I’ve seen every aspect of it, and I can tell you America doesn’t have one immigration problem, it has three.

First, despite the fact that we are the most generous country in the history of the world in allowing people to come here legally, we have people still coming illegally.

Second, we have a legal immigration system that no longer works. It primary is built on the basis of whether you have a relative living here instead of merit.

And third, we have 11 million or 12 million people, many of whom have been here for longer than a decade who are already here illegally.

And we must deal with all three of these problems. We cannot deal with all three of these problems in one massive piece of legislation. I learned that. We tried it that way.

Here’s the way forward: First, we must — we must secure our border, the physical border, with — with a wall, absolutely. But we also need to have an entry/exit tracking system. 40 percent of the people who come here illegally come legally, and then they overstay the visa. We also need a mandatory e-verify system.

After we’ve done that, step two would be to modernize our legal immigration system so you come to America on the basis of what you can contribute economically, not whether or not simply you have a relative living here.

As strong as he is on so many other issues, Rubio may never get past immigration; voters have long memories and much mistrust these days.

In the end, I think the CNN poll shows more than anything else that we still have a long way to go and we can anticipate many more changes to come.  Once the undercard starts filtering out and those votes swing hither and yon, as will the money, things will change as well.

I have a friend who swears that Trump is going to pull out of this and swing his support, and votes, to Ted Cruz.  I’m not seeing that at all, but there you go.  I do believe, at least, that Trump never really intended to be this far ahead when he got in this and is as surprised as anyone that he’s still in the lead.  But, he’s faltering now, I think. His biggest line is always a blustery roll about how successful he’s been and not much substance after that.

It’s a long way to 2016 and will certainly be an entertaining ride.

 

Pat Austin blogs at And So it Goes in Shreveport.

OK I’ve had a few hours to sleep on it and here are my debate takeaways.

Winner:  Main Debate Rand Paul:  Despite not having much time in the early rounds won two segments.  Made strong cases for everything he believed and sold his positions well.  Accomplished everything he needed to do, the only question is do people agree with those positions.

Winner: First Debate Lindsey Graham:  Memorable lines , humor and again made the case first for a ground war against isis, the single most important issue for the future of the country and for pressing the Obama administration in the senate.

Graham will get a small bump because he’s polling so low with Paul it’s harder because he’s making cases for things that many in the base disagree with.

Five interesting points.  

My two “winners”  are both people I disagree with.

Not only were there no bad debate performances in either debate but there was an awful lot of substance in them (particularly in debate 1)

The debate was specifically designed to promote confrontation .  It did and the candidates made the most of them.  I’m sure to the ratings delight of CNN

While it was a very long night for the Candidates it was even longer for the moderators who did an excellent job.

There wasn’t a person on either stage (even the ones I disagree with) that didn’t make themselves more credible it was like a convention of British Sea Captains from the Napoleonic Wars

 

Let’s go through the candidates starting with debate 2 in sort of the order of how they did.

Marco Rubio:  2nd place  Did exactly what he had to do, got noticed, had memorable moments and made excellent cases over an over.  Gave donors a reason to stay.

Carly Fiorina:  Completely justified her promotion to the main debate stage in a situation where he needed to do so.  Strong answers, and played to the MSM expectations and brought up the Planned Parenthood videos which will play very strongly to the base.

Chris Christie:  Reminded every conservative in the country why he was so popular before and used his time wisely.

Mike Huckabee:  Every chance he got she knocked it out of the part and really did a great job on the Kim Davis question noting the accommodations for Islamic Terrorists vs a Christian Clerk.

Jeb Bush:  A slow start but showed energy and reassured the donor class that was worried with a friendly establishment audience.

Donald Trump:  Target #1 of everyone there.  Brought up two excellent points (having to be friends with everyone in business and the threat of North Korea) that had previously been ignored.  Proved he could take a punch which is an important quality in a front runner.

Ted Cruz:  Like Huckabee took good advantage of every chance he had to talk, if he had been given the chance to make his climate change response might have been able to win.

Scott Walker:  May have saved his campaign by coming back strong

Ben Carson:  Gave good answers but criticized for being low key.  But that’s how he is.

John Kasich:  The least memorable performance of the night, yet still a good one, seemed kind of a poor man’s Lindsey Graham.

Debate 1:

Rick Santorum:  A very strong performance, made the best case for a min wage hike (I disagree there) that I’ve heard so far.

Bobby Jindal:  Really strong appeal to the base, very energetic again did the job he needed to do getting noticed.

George Pataki:  Had the single best hit on Hillary in either debate noting that she was a Senator from NY the target of terror attacks and still did what she did.

Short Term:  Tactical results:

Who was helped the most last night?  Carly Fiorina, she realized right away what the pundits were looking for & gave it to them.  Lots of credibility.

Who was hurt the most last night?  Ben Carson, the media has spun this as a defeat even though he is presenting himself the same as he always was.  The media template is to give Carly the push at his expense.

Long Term Strategic results:

Who was helped the most long term?  Donald Trump:  Not only did he dominate time and prove he could take every punch thrown at him but because nobody did bad enough to be eliminated that guarantees the vote will remain divided.  The longer that’s true the bigger advantage he has.

Who was hurt the most last night?  John Kasich:  Not because he did bad, he didn’t but because Jeb Bush did better and he is the establishment Bush fallback position.

A much longer post is coming about:

The flexible 14th amendment Kim Davis  Birthright citizenship

Ironic moment of the night:  Jeb Bush hits Kim Davis for not obeying nonexistent federal law while insisting he would not hit Colorado for ignoring explicit federal drug laws.

Most significant post debate moment:  Frank Luntz group, nobody in the group said Ted Cruz won but every single person in the group was impressed by him.  Continues to play the long game.

Am I the only one who noticed….The post debate interview with Donald Trump where he talks about getting to know his opponents.  I think it was rather revealing & will affect the way he counterpunchers in the future.

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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what they’re good for.

By A.P. Dillon

The first Republican debate was more entertaining than it had a right to be.

While a historic number of people watched it, they were likely doing so to see what came out of Trump’s mouth next. Those folks were probably not disappointed.

I was watching for how the candidates reacted to a few key issues. One of them is education — specifically Common Core.  I was not disappointed.

The question on Common Core was fired right at Jeb Bush, who dodged it without the words “Common Core” ever crossing his lips. It was artful, but to those of us engaged in the fight against the Core, it was predictable and highly disingenuous.

First, it should be noted that Arne Duncan has attacked parents and insulted millions with his ‘white suburban mom‘ rhetoric. Jeb Bush and John Kasich prefer to utilize Unicorns to smear parents with.

Second, Jeb Bush’s promotion of Common Core runs in contradiction to his claim he is a proponent of school choice. Common Core is the opposite of choice, sir.

The question on Common Core was then redirected to Sen. Marco Rubio. I was a bit surprised that they didn’t toss it to Kasich.  After all, Kasich is in this race to take Common Core heat off Jeb and hand him Ohio.

What Rubio said in his response effectively stapled Bush’s position on Common Core to Bush’s own forehead:

Well, first off, I too believe in curriculum reform. It is critically important in the 21st Century. We do need curriculum reform. And it should happen at the state and local level. That is where educational policy belongs, because if a parent is unhappy with what their child is being taught in school, they can go to that local school board or their state legislature, or their governor and get it changed.

Here’s the problem with Common Core. The Department of Education, like every federal agency, will never be satisfied. They will not stop with it being a suggestion. They will turn it into a mandate.

In fact, what they will begin to say to local communities is, you will not get federal money unless do you things the way we want you to do it. And they will use Common Core or any other requirements that exists nationally to force it down the throats of our people in our states.

This response isn’t just applicable to Common Core or the Department of Education. There are examples of this mandate machine we call the Federal government in every sector of our lives now.

The lengths to which the federal government has gone to ensure control over the states to date is Orwellian. And this control seeking behavior is increasing.

Rubio didn’t stop with Jeb Bush on education either, he took a clean shot at Hillary Clinton and “free” college this week. From a press release from his campaign site:

“Hillary Clinton’s higher education plan is Obamacare for college. Clinton’s plan doubles down on the outdated system that’s created skyrocketing tuitions and degrees that don’t lead to jobs. Rather than modernize our system by embracing new innovations, Clinton will raise taxes and pour more money into a broken system. 

Good to see Rubio taking aim at Clinton on this topic. This is yet another example of where another federal mandate could be created funded by our own tax dollars.

Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton now have another thing in Common beyond donors — Rubio has called them both out on education. Clinton, like Bush, also is a supporter of Common Core.

AP DillonA.P. Dillon resides in the Triangle area of North Carolina and is the founder of LadyLiberty1885.com.
Her current and past writing can also be found at IJ Review, StopCommonCoreNC.org, Heartland.org and Watchdog Wire NC.
Catch her on Twitter: @LadyLiberty1885

Final Update:  The more I think about it the more I’m thinking Fox accomplished exactly what they were looking for.  More on Saturday morning.

I’m offended by the “Donald Trump going after women BS” by Megan Kelly and Donna Brazile. We are constantly told by women that they are strong, assertive who are equals to men, but if they are treated the same why a man is suddenly its offensive. Either you are tough enough to take the hits or you are the weaker sex who need to be protected from offensive speech, pick one.

I agree with Elizabeth Price Foley at Instapundit:

GOP PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE LOSER? FOX NEWS: I was particularly disappointed with the ridiculous “gotcha!” questions posed by Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace. Can Fox News please focus on the issues and not try to play favorites?

1st Place Donald Trump: By Default proved he belonged there won’t lose support among the new crowd that tuned in that aren’t political animals.
2nd place Rand Paul: Did everything he needed to do, was both memorable and substantive
3rd Place Ben Carson Didn’t get many chances but handled them the best
4th Chris Christie Got noticed make his points and reminded those who had gone Bush why they supported him before
5th Rubio Lots of solid answers
6th Huckabee, had memorable lines but was lost every exchange with another customer.
7th Cruz Almost perfect but seemed to be constantly ignored by the panel
8th Walker Good lines but never jumped out.
9th Kasich Played to the crowd but too long on a lot of answers
10th Bush Almost didn’t notice he was there. That’s bad news for the big donors.

My rankings I think there was only one so so performance (Bush) , Kasich got a lot of love from the home crowd but wasn’t impressive, Walker was fine but not overly impressive , Cruz was very good but got very little time, Huckabee had memorable lines but not as hot, Rubio was very good, Chris Christie did very well , Ben Carson didn’t get many chances to speak but clearly hit nerves, Rand Paul managed to be both combative and substantive and Trump proved he belonged on the stage.

11:03 Trump closes with his standard the US is not what is should be, we have to make our country great again.

11:02 Bush speaking (he was left alone for 30 min) fair close stumbled a bit like his brother at the end.

11:00 Ted Cruz, day 1 give a laundry list of what he would do strong but Ben Carson trumps him with the half a brain line. Huckabee: Hits Hillary Clinton when everyone thought he was talking Trump, Scott Walker: Talks record and recalls, the “and we won”

10:58 Paul give a first rate close, notes he leads Clinton in five states Obama won, Rubio talks about his history,

10:56 Closing Kasich goes over his record, pretty good response, Pretty good answer by Christie about his record

10:55 Carson Asked about race relation: Give his pat neurosurgeon answer I operate on the part that makes a person what they are crowd loves it.

10:54 Rubio asked about God & va: Rubio says God has blessed us we must help our vets only one fired

10:51 Kasish asked the God question, long winded answer, Walker invokes his past and the protests against him

Last round Closing question first: Have they received word from God: I get God daily from Scripture God speaks through the bible talks about his father’s conversion. You shall know them by their fruits. Knocking it out of the park

Good round for everyone but I think Paul’s answer was the best for him

10:45 Christie invited to hit Paul, instead agrees with Carson about Military, agrees that we can’t be funding our enemies, but says Israel needs to fund.

10:44: Why did you change your budget to allow aid to Israel: At least I have a budget, Israel is a friend, We shouldn’t borrow money from China to send it to anyone. We can’t give away money we don’t have. We don’t project power from bankruptcy court.

10:42 Huck asked about Transgender troops: Huckabee: The purpose of the Military is to kill people and break things. We’ve forgotten why we have a military. it’s not a social lab.

10:41 Walker on confronting Russia if they go after Baltic states: “Russia & China know more about Hillary’s emails than we do ”

10:40 would you have struck Syria?: Talks about an army that’s not ready while our enemies grow strong & our friends don’t trust us. I’d shore up the military first.

10:36 They are back breaking news about the Iranian General, goes to Trump again: Trump talks about Iran and discusses Iran deal as garbage. If Iran was a stock you should buy it. The Russian cyber attack brought up, FINALLY asked cruz something. Have they declared Cyberwar: Cruz: Of course they have goes through the list of the enemies gains.

Rubio & Paul did best that round, it’ been an hour since they said a word to Ted Cruz WTF?

10:33 Paul asked about protecting religion: Says I don’t want the government going after they guns or my religion.

10:31: Kasich asked the “what if your child is gay” to Kasich: he plays the unconditional love card and brags about going to a gay wedding. Kelly should be ashamed of herself for that question.

10:28: Bush asked about trump: Thinks he’s divisive but we need to win. Trump says when it comes to the world we have no time for tone we have to get the job done.

10:26 Trump asked about his changes: tell story about a person not aborted that made a different, invokes Ronald Reagan best you can do there.

10:25: Rubio asked about life of the mother exception claims, denies supporting exception

10:23 Bush asked about Planned Parenthood asked about the Bloomberg board that funded it: Bush claimed he joined for education, notes his pro-life record. “I didn’t know but it doesn’t matter. That’s an ad against him”

Every candidate helped themselves that last round, perhaps Carson & Christie the most

10:15 Quotes first debate asks on Iran deal: Asks Walker on Day 1 tear up deal. Walker invokes the Iranian hostage crisis, stronger sanctions and then convince allies to do the same. Paul on the deal. I oppose the iranian deal, he didn’t negotiate from strength. I don’t mind negotiation but must go from strength, no release of sanctions until proof of compliance: Huckabee: Trust but Verify Trust Iran vilify us. Notes the death to america & Israel stuff, Three great answer there.

10:13 Great answer on economy by Rubio

10:10 Trump asked about 4 bankruptcies: Doesn’t apologize for using bankruptcy laws to his advantage for the four times in 100’s of deals. Point to the money he made. Chris Wallace presses, Trump points out he got out of Atlantic City before it went bust.

10:07 Christie & Huckabee on entitlement reform asked if Huckabee is lying: Huckabee is not lying he’s just wrong, Gives specific answer on retirement reform, good answer. Huckabee noting that it’s not the people’s who had their own money taken that it’s screwed up. It’s wrong to do so. Christie It’s already happened we have to fix it as it is.

10:05 Bush notes Clinton wont’ even comment on Keystone, Walker defends his record on jobs notes three elections

10:01 If Hillary is nominee: Carson suggest Hillary will NOT win. She is the epidemy of the secular progressive movement, counts on the fact that people are uninformed

On twitter Carson being attacked mercilessly for mentioning God by the left.

After 2nd Break Trump still ahead, but Cruz, Paul & Walker did well.

9:55: Rubio asked on Common Core: Dept of Ed won’t stop with a suggestion it will become a mandate.

9:53 Bush asked about Common core: Spins Fed government should be involved in standards. Points to his voucher plans.

9:51: Huckabee asked about government size: talks flat tax, Carson talks flat tax and tithing

9:49 Walker’s “everything hillary clinton touches” line was classic

9:46 asked Trump about single payer: Note get rid of the artificial lines. Paul hits him again., Trump asked about donations to dems: “When I give they help”

9:44 Hey they finally got back to Ben Carson asked about waterboarding: He jokes about being ignored: What we do is our business and I’m not going to broadcast it and I don’t believe in fighting a politically correct war.

9:43: To Bush: asked about the War and his hedging on it: It was wrong but they didn’t die in vain. Points out to Obama leaving causing the problem & the rise of ISIS.

9:42: How can you defeat ISIS in 90 days to Cruz: Cruz says our policy should be “If you join ISIS you are signing your death warrant.” Cruz contrasts Obama on Christians vs Islam

9:40 Doesn’t Ben Carson get to be questioned anymore?

9:37 Christie invited to hit Paul on terrorism. He does big time. Paul “I want to support the 4th amendment.”, “Christie says it’s hot air”. Paul says get a warrant “you want to give him (obama) a big hug go ahead again.”

9:35 Ted Cruz will you support Kate’s Law?: I filed that law leadership blocked it. “It’s not a question of stupidity they don’t want to enforce the law.”

9:34 To Paul: Why in the last two years have you changed your position. “I changed because I listed to the American people.”

9:32 Rubio asked about Trump too: People feel like we are being taken advantage of. Talks about the legal people.

9:31: Back asking Kasich is Trump is right: “Trump is hitting a nerve”, he’s got his solution we’ve got ours, lists accomplishments.

9:28: No clear leader but Trump finished strong & is the pol leader so wins by default

9:25 Trump asked to answer Bush directly on the immigration debate: “If it weren’t for me Chris you wouldn’t even be talking about it.” “Reporters are a dishonest lot.” Wallace challenges his evidence, Trump says Border Patrol people tell him this.

9:24 Bush on Immigration Do you stand by the “It’s an act of love” statement. Yes but we have to secure border. Unimpressive answer.

9:22 Megan Kelly asks Kasich about taking Obamacare money to expand medicare: Ignores the cost question and points to other types of savings.

9:20 Why is GOP at fault on foreign policy to Paul: Points out that ISIS rides around in US Humvees, I have been fighting us from arming their friends.

9:18: Huckabee asked if he is too radical: Invoke the constitution to protect the 5th amendment & 14th amendment to protect children from abortion vs a new amendment.

9:17 Would you really let a mother die to Scott Walker: Deflects the question points to his strong pro-life position.

9:15 To Christie, NJ Sucks why should we vote for you: “Christie You should have seen it before I got there.” Talks about cuts

9:15: Ted cruz asked if he’s too divisive? “The American people are looking for someone to speak the truth.”

9:13 Temperment question vs women. Points toward Trumps twitter account. We have no time for political correctness talks strength. throws a punch at Megan Kelly.

9:11 Jeb Bush asked about dynastic stuff. talks about his record, talks reserves they call me Veto Corleone.

9:09 Marco Rubio: If this is a resume contest Hillary Clinton will be the president

9:07: First question goes to Carson, do you know enough about what’s going on. (Same question that I asked him in NH two months ago) Disputes it, experience comes from a lot of arenas. “America became a great nation not because it was flooded with politicians ”

9:05 Boy Rand Paul didn’t waste time he’s hedging his bets attack. Didn’t phase Trump.

9:04 Raise you hand if you won’t pledge to support the GOP candidate or run 3rd party Only Trump does.

9:02 Everyone is being introduced again home field advantage Kasich

8:57 For God’s sake stop the pre-talk and let them start, they are the actual stars not the moderators

8:56 The candidates take the stage

8:53 Not really interested in the pre-debate panel

Hey there are people there this time

Ok time for Debate 2, my debate 1 commentary is here

I can see what the NYT is more respected than mere bloggers, We just cover the speeches of presidential candidates, their Q & A with voters and how those voters think, while the NYT gets to the thing that really matter when picking a president

Marco Rubio and His Wife Cited 17 Times for Traffic Infractions

Yeah, the Clintons might have gotten all that foreign money and wiped their servers to hide their past but what is that next to 17 traffic tickets by the Rubios in 18 years?

I guess we’d better get him in the White House since it will mean they won’t be driving for themselves anymore.

Just remember this the next time people on the left say Clinton’s record is no big deal.

Oh and one more thing (emphasis mine)

According to a search of the Miami-Dade and Duval County court dockets, the Rubios have been cited for numerous infractions over the years for incidents that included speeding, driving through red lights and careless driving. A review of records dating back to 1997 shows that the couple had a combined 17 citations: Mr. Rubio with four and his wife with 13. On four separate occasions they agreed to attend remedial driving school after a violation.

I wonder does the NYT going after the Rubio’s over his wife’s traffic tickets constitute a war on women?

Update:  It just hit me, isn’t the real story that the Rubio & his family, despite being a State Rep, Speaker of the Florida House, a US Senator and now a Presidential Candidate actually got cited for these ticketed and paid a penalty for it rather than having them fixed and go away?

Update 2:  Twitchy puts it in perspective:

‘Bombshell’! What Marco Rubio did ‘while Hillary was selling uranium to Putin’ is the distraction of the day

Update 3:  Hotair

The whole story is silly and insubstantial. If there was some indication that the Rubios used their political power to have traffic tickets vanish, that would be a story. Instead, the Rubios had to pay a lawyer to deal with the court issues, perhaps a bit of a luxury but noteworthy only for their legitimate use of legal options rather than political power to deal with the tickets.

Ben Shapiro asks whether the New York Times might have noticed any untoward activities from another political spouse:

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If you prefer coverage of the Presidential candidates rather than questions covering their wife’s driving records please remember the only way I can do this type of journalism is if enough people choose to kick in to support me making a nominal living doing it.

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By:  Pat Austin

SHREVEPORT – Boy, did I ever step into it last week.  I forgot how thick-skinned bloggers need to be sometimes, and how vitriolic and hateful people can be when conflicting opinions exist.

My old friend William Jacobson at Legal Insurrection asked me to expound on my belief that Marco Rubio still has potential as a viable candidate in the 2016 Primary.  Keyword:  “potential.”

I touched on the subject in this space a couple of weeks ago and elaborated at Jacobson’s request at Legal Insurrection.  He’s got a really tough crowd over there and they basically rode me out of town on a rail, insulted my intelligence, and flogged me in the comments.  I really sort of expected that, but I was sorry it got so ugly.  I quit monitoring comments after the first few popped up.  In the end I think there were over 40 comments left on the post, but honestly, I quit reading them.  If comments are only insulting and not instructive, there’s no point.

At any rate, I’ll offer one last word on Rubio here and then I’m done with it.  I’m not endorsing Rubio.  Do I still see potential there?  Sure, I do.

Did he screw up with the Gang of Eight deal?  Absolutely.  Without a doubt.

Do I advocate amnesty?  No, I don’t, but I think we have to deal with this issue in a humane way and within the legal system.

But, do I think Rubio made have learned a lesson?  Possibly.

Should we trust him again?  I think he has to earn that trust by his actions (not words) and that’s not easy to do.  It takes time.

As to Rubio’s “new” immigration plans, should he get elected (a longshot, I would say now), which he explained on Face the Nation:

What I would do if I was president, the first thing I would do is, I would ask Congress to pass a very specific bill that puts in place E-Verify, an entry-exit tracking to prevent visa overstays, and improve security on the border. Once we achieve that, step two would be, we would modernize our legal immigration system, less family- based, more merit-based.

And then the third step would be to pass the bill that goes to the 10 million people that are here, or 12 million that are here illegally. If they have been for longer than a decade, they have to pass background check, they have to learn English, they have to pay taxes, they have to pay a fine. And they would get a work permit.

And after a substantial period of time in that status, assuming they haven’t violated any of the conditions of that status, they would be allowed to apply for legal residency, just like anybody else would, not a special process. And after you’re a legal resident, after a number of years, by law, you’re allowed to apply for citizenship.

It’s a long process. It’s a reasonable process. It’s a fair process. But it has to happen in that order. And it begins with serious enforcement measures.

Call me a liberal if you want to, but I don’t see anything wrong with that.  Get the enforcement measures in place first, like E-Verify, secure the border, the entry-exit tracking system – all that is good, right?  (The whole process would probably be dead in the water right there because I don’t see them every really securing the border). Only when all that works would I be interested in the rest of his plan:  the people here longer than a decade, clean background check, they’ve violated no laws  – not even traffic tickets (other than coming here illegally for which they’d pay a fine), learn English, and only then award a work permit – a legal working visa.  Stay out of trouble, earn your way, contribute to society, and then after a certain number of years they could apply for citizenship.

I just don’t have a problem with that; your only other choice is to round them all up and send them back and right now we can’t even seem to do that with the criminals, much less the ones that are working and raising families.

And that’s my last word on Marco Rubio.  Like everyone else, I’ll watch the debates, watch the candidates, watch it all unfold, and then decide on a candidate.

I’m certainly not advocating or endorsing anyone at this point.  I can’t take anymore venomous attacks this week.

Pat Austin blogs at And So it Goes in Shreveport.

By:  Pat Austin

SHREVEPORT – A couple of weeks ago William Jacobson queried the possibility of conservatives falling in love with Marco Rubio again.  As one of the original Not One Red Cent bloggers, I’d like to know the answer to that question, too.

The comments on the professor’s blog, Legal Insurrection, were not particularly favorable to Mr. Rubio.  Many conservatives are still displeased over Rubio’s immigration stance; not just that, but Rubio’s alliance with Schumer, McCain, Durban and Graham didn’t do him any good, either.

One comment on Jacobson’s post remarks that Rubio is too young and inexperienced, a remark which simply makes me gag given the level of inexperience the Democrats opted for with Mr. Obama.  That argument no longer holds water.  Period.

Can conservatives fall in love with Rubio again?  Byron York took a crack at sizing up the field as with regard to Mr. Rubio, notes:

Marco Rubio is clearly enjoying a moment. He is relaxed and funny in front of crowds, flying high after a well-received campaign announcement. In addition, Rubio appears to be winning growing support among some GOP establishment figures and opinion makers — the ones who worry about Jeb Bush’s dynastic problem, fear Scott Walker is not ready for prime time, and have given up on Chris Christie. But Rubio has to convince other Republicans who worry that he is too green for the top job, and he still has his record to contend with, when opponents take a very close look at his signature achievement, the Senate-passed Gang of Eight comprehensive immigration reform bill.

It’s very early in this process, you know.  Way too early to be predicting how the field will shake out, but I think we are certainly able to tell who the contenders are.  The Not One Red Cent blog originated when the Republican establishment endorsed Charlie Crist in the Florida Senate primary over the young up and comer, Rubio; it was obvious to anyone with eyes that Crist was a Rino and not to be trusted, so conservatives flocked to Rubio in that race and rightly so.  Crist has since shown his true colors.  I feel the same way about any Jeb Bush establishment nomination when I look at the Republican field.  My two cents?  No more Bushes.

Looking at the rest of York’s recap, I’m not a Christie fan, either.  I agree with York that Scott Walker has potential but I don’t think he has the national recognition yet to pull it off.  I’m stunned that he has Jindal in his mix; note to Byron York:  Jindal isn’t “catching fire” for a reason.  Pay attention to Louisiana’s budget sinkhole, Jindal’s chronic cuts to higher education, and his flip flopping on Common Core to name a few.

To answer Mr. Jacobson’s question, I think Rubio has potential to pull conservatives back in.  I love Ted Cruz, but face it – and I know this is blasphemy in conservative circles, but Cruz it just too good.  He’s too conservative and I don’t think he’ll get the majority necessary to recapture the Executive branch.  The Democrats have stacked the deck.  Rubio has the potential and the charisma (and face it, charisma is about all Obama had), to pull in Republicans of almost all breeds.

Except those still ticked off about his Gang of Eight deal.  Marco has some serious sucking up to do.

 

Pat Austin blogs at And So it Goes in Shreveport.

On Friday Night Marco Rubio spoke to a full house at the Rockingham Republican Committee dinner.

The Room was packed with tables reserved for groups from the Seacoast Republican women (who despite Democrat claims to the contrary exist in great numbers.) the various Senate candidates (Scott Brown and Karen Testerman both had tables) and a vast swath of GOP members anxious to hear what the senator had to say.

Senator Rubio’s  speech ran about 40 minutes and touched on the themes of the American Dream and what Republicans were doing to preserve it.  He focused on education noting that it was only after the sales from his book that his own student loans were paid off.

Obamacare and foreign affairs were touched on but his most stirring words concerned his family coming and making it in America and his father’s efforts to secure the American dream for his children.  He argued for school choice as an issue illustrating the GOP way of doing things stating the only people in the country who do not have a choice in schools are the poor.and further stressed that it was the breakdown of the family that is the chief cause of poverty in the United States.  That’s a message that social conservatives like myself have argued for a while.

While he touched on one of the elephants in the room (that one being the statue of one next to his podium) he didn’t have a word to say about the other, his support for the Senate Amnesty bill that has been the chief cause of his freefall in NH presidential polls.

Nevertheless his speech was well received and it remains to be seen if with such a large field of excellent GOP candidates to choose from,  he will be able to recover his former standing.  That pretty much depends on what happens with amnesty in the house.

If the House fails to pass the Amnesty bill then I suspect he will be given a mulligan and be able to make his case.

If however the house passes a bill, and such a bill gets to the president’s desk then Republicans in NH and elsewhere are unlikely to forget, or forgive.

Interesting note, the break in the audio came during the standing ovation for a 97 year old Marine pilot who served in both WW 2 and Korea. It was so long I had time to stop the video as my space filled up, extract my memory card, put in a new video card, power up and restart the video…and the applause was still going on.

 

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by Fausta Rodriguez Wertz

I can not attend CPAC this year, but have been paying attention to the speakers; yesterday Senator Marco Rubio’s speech on American exceptionalism defined America’s post-Obama foreign policy, as Mediate rightfully said:

He defined the threats he warned that the United States will face in the near future and defined current and long-term America’s economic challenges in terms relating to the preservation of free trade guaranteed by American military and diplomatic strength.

All the threats come from totalitarian regimes, regimes who do not respect their citizens’ God-given rights: “Any government and any leader who violates those rights is an illegitimate one.”

Rubio asserted that “America must be involved in leading the world”. “There is only one nation on earth capable of rallying and bringing together the free people on this planet to stand up to the spread of totalitarianism. The United Nations cannot do this. In fact, they cannot do anything.”

“If you think high taxes and regulations are bad for our economy, so is global instability and the spread of totalitarianism,” Rubio continued. “What we have in America is the exception, not the rule, in human history. Almost everyone who has ever lived on this planet didn’t’ get to choose their leaders, and they didn’t get to choose their life either.”

Ed Morrissey:

Rubio nails it on foreign policy, and in a way explains why the Obama administration fell into the trap of their own arrogance. Barack Obama campaigned on “hope and change,” and later implied (if not quite stated outright) that he was the change and the hope. The administration seemed to have bought its own hype. The mere fact of his election was supposed to argue that America had already fundamentally changed, and that all that was needed to get imperial-oriented nations like China and Russia to see the light was a reset button or two.

That’s the “fantasy” world inhabited by the Obama administration, as the Washington Post described it last weekend. Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John Kerry all seem to believe that just talking about change and hope will mean that nations run by power-seeking leaders will suddenly embrace Utopianism, because — as Kerry explicitly said — that’s the right side of history, and the geopolitical manipulations of Russia and China are on “the wrong side of history.” There is absolutely no evidence for that claim, except for their own declarations that it’s so.

Video of the full spech:

Memeorandum thread.

Fausta Rodriguez Wertz writes on Latin American and USA politics and culture at Fausta’s blog.

“We don’t need a lot of Jim DeMint disciples…As soon as they get here, we need to co-opt them.”

Fmr Sen Trent Lott

For weeks now we have been hearing the daily drumbeat from the GOP establishment either openly or clandestinely of the Dangers of Ted Cruz and his willingness to support the tea party base of the GOP. He and to a lesser extent Mike Lee have borne the brunt of attacks as they tell anyone who will listen what a disaster their moves on Obamacare will be for the GOP.

There are many ways to refute this argument but the best is to simply say one name. Marco Rubio.

Marco Rubio was not popular with the establishment in the GOP when he first came up. As Robert Stacy McCain pointed out  spared no expense to support Charlie Crist during the Florida Senate primary

“All they care about is getting their chairmanships back, and they don’t care how they get there,” said the operative. “They don’t want to spend any money, so they were looking for a self-funder.”

“They” are Republican senators, and what my friend was explaining was the otherwise inexplicable decision of the National Republican Senatorial Committee to endorse Charlie Crist in the Florida Senate race — 15 months before the primary!

The fortune spent on Crist proved poorly spent, not only did Crist run as an independent but Democrats rather than pushing their on candidate (Remember Kendrick Meeks?) supported Crist in defeat and he rewarded them by “evolving” into an Obama endorsing democrat.

Thus Marco Rubio became the candidate of the Tea Party and was their favorite, until he made a mistake.

It was a rookie mistake and given the reactions of the MSM and others in the establishment that treated him as the “golden boy” it was almost understandable.

There was speculation concerning Rubio as  a possible vp candidate and then when the president won re-election the speculation turned to 2016, he drew 600 in a November Iowa appearance...and then came the MSM and “immigration reform”.

For months the MSM,  hoping to give the re-elected Obama a victory,  said in no uncertain terms that the only way for the GOP to “save” itself or to make a candidate acceptable to “Hispanic” voters.  Leading establishment GOP figures, anxious to court favor with business interests, echoed the need to move on the subject totally ignoring the millions of members of the base who didn’t bother to show for two straight moderate candidates.

and Marco Rubio believed them

As his profile on the “gang of 8”  advanced Marco Rubio found himself doted on by the press, CNN & MSNBC were conservatives go to die suddenly had him on as a regular guest, liberal papers around the country praised him and when the base stated to object…

Marco Rubio leading the RINO Squish Amnesty Parade? After so many conservatives personally vouched for Marco’s bona fides as The Real Deal?

…they praised him even more!  They talked about his courage and principal and dismissed polls suggesting this was causing trouble., but then things started to happen

“Over the last three months, Marco Rubio’s name and face and voice have been so attached to the comprehensive immigration bill that it has virtually killed any enthusiasm among Republicans in Iowa for a Rubio presidential candidacy,” said GOP State Central Committee member Jamie Johnson. “Most Republicans here now see Rubio as the amnesty candidate.”

“Rubio seems to be so damaged it will be very difficult for him to recover here in Iowa,” said Rep. Steve King. “My perspective is that the immigration issue will sort Republican candidates.”

“Rubio has hurt himself immeasurably with his support of the current immigration bill,” said Sioux City conservative radio host Sam Clovis. “The rule of law still trumps all the feel-good aspects of the bill.”

That was only six months after the days he was drawing crowds in that same state.

However the establishment persuaded him to stay the course and when the Senate bill passed 68-32 with Rubio providing coverage for many other GOP senators.  John McCain said it wouldn’t cost him:

“I think it’s just foolish,” McCain, R-Ariz., told The Arizona Republic on Friday. “I’m not endorsing anyone, but I can tell you Marco Rubio is an articulate spokesperson for what conservatives believe in, in principle. And if we pass immigration reform, which is certainly not clear, he would get enormous credit for it.”

Alas for Rubio McCain was right, he DID get the credit, or rather the blame and now in every pol he falls into the 2nd tier of GOP contenders for 2016.

The field we used for this poll is not exactly the same as April- Ayotte and Cruz replaced Susana Martinez and Rick Perry, who had received little support. But at any rate it’s clear Marco Rubio has fallen precipitously, from 25% then to his current 7% standing.

And that’s why he is sticking with Ted Cruz this time.

While some (OK me) figure Rubio is young and was played, he’s not taking any chances.  As long as Ted Cruz continues to fight Marco Rubio stands at his side.

It’s an odd situation, the MSM avoids mentioning or attacking Rubio on the subject saying bluntly he needs to get himself right with the tea party, almost as if they were working under the assumption that he is faking it but more likely because they will need to convince him to vote with them again if amnesty passes the house.

And on the other end while Rubio stands with Cruz in the Senate he isn’t making appearances  before conservative groups like the Tea Party.  His absence from the DC rally two weeks ago was no accident.  He knew if he took that stage the chorus of boos would have been the story.

It will take a lot of effort and luck for Rubio to win back the good graces of the base.  If Ted Cruz succeeds with Rubio at his side that might do it.

The media insists there is no chance, and how foolish the GOP is for following him but any member or that GOP that people like Ted Cruz can’t count.

Actually senators CAN count, that’s why every member of the GOP who is running in 2014 is voting with Cruz, because they know all the laughter and all the insults that the MSM can muster won’t matter come primary day.

Just ask Marco Rubio.

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It was from such an unlikely beginning as an unwanted fungus accidentally growing on a sterile plate that Sir Alexander Flemming gave the world penicillin.  James Watt watched an ordinary household kettle boiling and conceived the potentially of steam power.  Would Albert Einstein ever have hit upon the theory of relativity if he hadn’t been clever? All these tremendous leaps forward have been taken in the dark. Would Rutherford ever have split the atom if he hadn’t tried? Could Marconi have invented the radio if he hadn’t by pure chance spent years working at the problem? Are these amazing breakthroughs ever achieved except by years and years of unremitting study? Of course not. What I said earlier about accidental discoveries must have been wrong.

Monty Python A book at Bedtime 1973

One of the things you tend to learn in business when you decide to go out on your own is the value of hard work.

When it comes right down to it there is no substitute to getting out there and doing what needs to be done, you can stall, you can it, no matter how many consultants you speak to, no matter how cool your apps no matter what kind of technology you use success at any endeavor involves the willingness to get involved and work at it.

A lot of people talk about luck but it’s a lot easier to be at the right place at the right time when you constantly show up.

It’s the same think with being a father it takes effort to raise good kids and part of that effort is to constantly remind and constantly teach the moment you stop teaching bad habits start.

And that brings us to the Immigration bill and conservatism.

Marco Rubio continues to push the illegal immigration bill with his aides in the belief it will make him clean with the  throwing out really interesting words while, Lindsey Graham declares without such a bill the GOP can’t win in 2016.  They are looking for that magic bullet to make republicans in general and Rubio in particular clean for 2016.

Some like Rush think it’s a question of money

What’s at play here is money.  If these elected Republicans are told by their donors that the money is gonna dry up if this amnesty thing doesn’t happen, what are they gonna do?

And if there’s a lot of it, if there’s a lot of corporation PAC money, corporate personal donation money coming from people who want amnesty, what’s gonna happen?

and while one should not discount the influence of big cash I think even more so they are looking for the easy way out.

I’ve argued over and over again that the argument for conservatism is an easy argument to make but what can be hard is to persevere in making that case.

You can’t simply say it once and go away, you have to go back, day after day, week after week, month after month and year after year and keep driving home the case for free markets, self-reliance and the advantage of freedom vs dependence.  Sometimes it takes a lot of years to sink in.  Consider this video that conservatives are going crazy over.

It’s a powerful statement, but take a look at Senator Guillory. He’s not a young man, it took a lot of years to finally make him see what liberalism is.

How many times do you think he heard the message of conservatism and rejected it before he finally saw it? What would have happened if the people who persuaded him decided it was too hard to keep making the case and instead choose to do something cosmetic?

Learning anything is hard, teaching anything is hard, it is repetition, it is training it is work, no matter how basic the message it has to be constantly reinforced, regularly made, through events, through speakers through people going directly to the communities making the case over and over again, never stopping.

Consider this passage from the book The Battle for the Falklands by Max Hastings and Simon Jenkins (the definite work on the subject)

An SAS officer remarked during the campaign on the problem that affects many Third world armies of concentrating on acquiring expensive technology rather than applying basic training and skills. On his own travels abroad, he said, he found again and again that his hosts disbelieved all that he told them about the achievements of the SAS being based on intensive, ceaseless meticulous training and preparation. “They all secretly believe that there is some pill you can take if you will tell them what it is.”

Lindsey Graham and Marco Rubio are apparently not up to it.   They’d rather have a shortcut, a big friendly button to make all their political problems go away.

If they think this 1000+ page bill is that magic pill then the education has to start with them.

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The great paycheck drought had a slight break as I noticed a tip jar hit I missed. We’ve actually reached the $27 dollar mark for the week.

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When I look at Marco Rubio and the immigration bill that he has been alternately ducking from and pushing I see Lyndon Johnson pre 1957.

Johnson was in a quandary. He wanted to be president but after seeing the failure of Richard Russell as a presidential candidate outside the south over civil rights Johnson (and to some degree Russell) decided he had to be “made clean” on the issue to allow him to run with a chance of winning.

Johnson has played a careful juggling act making a bill weak enough to prevent a full southern filibuster (in the end only Strom Thurmond would) thus allowing it to pass yet enough of a bill so the civil rights community would still accept it and more importantly (to Johnson) to get the credit for the bill as opposed to the GOP who had been pushing for such legislation unsuccessfully for years.

Marco Rubio is trying to play a similar game.

The left has successfully played the “illegal immigration” issue as a tribal issue, playing the game that any person who support enforcing immigration law as written hates and distrusts Latinos.

Never mind that if you are a low skilled voter more low skilled workers mean you’ll have a harder time getting a job.

Never mind that Latino’s hold other issues much higher than immigration.

And never mind that the Latino vote actually declined from 2008 to 2012 as a percentage of the vote

If you are not supporting a bill providing amnesty then you are obviously some kind of racist and the media will tear you apart for it and it looks like he’s not alone among the GOP to have bought into this:

it doesn’t matter who you run in 2016.  We’re in a demographic death spiral as a party and the only way we can get back in good graces with the Hispanic community in my view is pass comprehensive immigration reform.  If you don’t do that, it really doesn’t matter who we run in my view.

So it doesn’t matter how bad the economy is, it doesn’t matter how many Latinos were slaughtered thanks to fast and furious it doesn’t matter what you do, unless you have a bill that includes Amnesty there will be no chance of persuading Hispanics voters to support you.

Rubio is banking on this earning him credit with the MSM come 2016. Let me remind Marco Rubio of something that I mentioned back during the GOP primaries concerning Mitt Romney:

no matter who the GOP nominates the democrats will paint him as a “right wing extremest racist” So why nominate a person that is going to run off the conservative vote the GOP needs to win?

Seriously?

Senator Rubio do you really think that the press which is simply drooling over the chance to support Hillery Clinton is not going to be pounding you on a daily basis in 2016?

Do you really think the media will give you rather than Obama credit if this bill passes?

Do you Really think Democrats will not be running ad after ad on Latino radio stations hitting you and you won’t be getting the same “Latino in Name Only” treatment Gabriel Gomez is getting now?

And most incredible of all you actually think that the same conservatives who didn’t forgive Mitt Romney for his faults and stayed home after four years of Obama are going to forgive you and turn out in 2016 if this bill becomes law?

Senator Rubio, I like you, I really do, but if you actually believe this, then you’re too naive to be president, let alone the GOP nominee.

And Senator Rubio one more thing, it was Kennedy’s need for southern support that got Johnson on the ticket and an assassin’s bullet not his support for the Civil rights bill that got Lyndon Johnson to the White House.

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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Monday and after two failed weeks for the weekly paycheck Sunday got off to a poor start with only $2 in the till. On the bright side that was $2 more then the previous few days.

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I like Kelly Ayotte and Marco Rubio is far superior to Charlie Crist but I’d really appreciate it if they’d answer this question on the new immigration “this is not in any way amnesty” bill.

If cities like Cambridge are not enforcing current law and if the federal government is not currently enforcing it properly….

…then what is the incentive once Amnesty is granted for them to enforce the new one.

Let me know when you come up with a believable answer.

Hey remember when the PLO was famous for saying one thing in English and something different in Arabic to their own people.

Marco Rubio apparently does:

In a Spanish-language interview Sunday with the network Univision, Sen. Marco Rubio, the leading Republican on the Gang of Eight comprehensive immigration reform group, made his strongest statement yet that legalization of the nation’s estimated 11 million illegal immigrants must happen before any new border security or internal enforcement measures are in place, and will in no way be conditional on any security requirements.

“Let’s be clear,” Rubio said. “Nobody is talking about preventing the legalization. The legalization is going to happen. That means the following will happen: First comes the legalization. Then come the measures to secure the border. And then comes the process of permanent residence.”

I’d love to see what the current price is on the Rubio 2016 domain name.  I suspect the price will drop like a rock after this, if it hasn’t already but Powerline disagrees:

remember, the Republicans nominated John McCain in 2008 notwithstanding his prior support for amnesty. They then nominated Mitt Romney in 2012 notwithstanding Romneycare. Although Republicans often are portrayed by the MSM as hopeless ideologues, we don’t behave that way when it comes to nominating presidential candidates.

Allahpundit says it’s that or nothing:

I think he’s calculating, unfortunately quite rationally, that conservatives are far more likely to forgive him for selling out their core interest in the name of winning over Latinos than general-election voters are if he becomes known as The Man Who Killed Reform.

and it’s all about getting a bill, he’s trying to pull a Johnson.

Update:  Ouch!

rubio

This is a suckers bet.

6th Doctor: My last incarnation, I was never happy with that one

Peri:   Why ever not?

6th Doctor: It had a certain feckless charm, it simply wasn’t me.

Doctor Who The Twin Dilemma 1984

Yesterday Byron York reported on an anomaly concerning Marco Rubio:

Sen. Marco Rubio, the leading Republican behind the Gang of Eight comprehensive immigration reform bill, says he will not vote for the legislation he helped write and has staked his political future on, unless substantial changes are made before final Senate consideration.

This simply can’t be, we’ve been hearing for months how this bill is progressing, I keep hearing 70 votes from the left and every pundit around keeps saying how VITAL it is for any potential GOP candidate to get on board.

And Marco Rubio has been all over it from the stat, even cutting ads urging conservatives to support the bill that are even now still running on conservative talk shows around the country.

How is it that Rubio is threatening to vote against his own bill, the bill that is the salvation of his party, the bill that will make him acceptable to the MSM as a presidential candidate?

Well there is one simple explanation that as a Doctor Who Fan I should have thought of before: Regeneration!

As every Doctor Who fan knows after Regeneration a time lord’s personality changes, sometimes dramatically  the Doctor old teacher Cardinal Borusa for example went from someone ready to die for Gallifrayan traditions to kidnapping and murder in an attempt to achieve immortality and rule forever.

This is apparently the 3rd Incarnation of Rubio & second regeneration of the Senator.  The first likely was caused by the president’s re-election.  It was quite a shock to a lot of people so it’s no surprise that it might trigger an event as dramatic as Regeneration.

That would certainly account for the sudden decision of the tea party hero, the man who defeated Charlie Crist so completely that he switched sides, to start pushing for a de-facto amnesty bill, the item on the very top of the liberal dream of a new Amnesty Bill.

What triggered this new regeneration?  I suspect it might have been due to an injury in….Iowa:

Over the weekend I emailed a number of Iowa conservatives to ask them a few general questions about the GOP field. I didn’t mention immigration or any other issue; I just wanted their thoughts. What I got back, as far as Rubio was concerned, was all about immigration, and nearly all negative

“Over the last three months, Marco Rubio’s name and face and voice have been so attached to the comprehensive immigration bill that it has virtually killed any enthusiasm among Republicans in Iowa for a Rubio presidential candidacy,” said GOP State Central Committee member Jamie Johnson. “Most Republicans here now see Rubio as the amnesty candidate.”

“Rubio seems to be so damaged it will be very difficult for him to recover here in Iowa,”

And that damage is great enough that the Senator has again regenerated into a person conservative enough to fight against his own bill.

Rubio’s transformation hasn’t been that dramatic, after all he still looks the same but it will be a few days or perhaps several weeks to see if this regeneration takes and if this 3rd incarnation of Marco Rubio is the Conservative Tea Party leader willing to fight, the Amnesty Bill backer willing to give Democrats victory on a signal issue or maybe someone entirely different.

We’ll just have to wait and see.

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Olimometer 2.52

While Macro Rubio has regenerated yesterday DaTipJar & Weekly Paycheck was pretty stagnant

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Lt. Weinberg: “I strenuously object?” Is that how it works? Hm? “Objection.” “Overruled.” “Oh, no, no, no. No, I STRENUOUSLY object.” “Oh. Well, if you strenuously object then I should take some time to reconsider.”

A Few Good Men 1992

I listened to Marco Rubio on Rush Limbaugh’s show last week talk about the Immigration bill I heard him make the case that it was necessary because what we have no is de-facto amnesty.

All of this talk of the necessity of this bill, the provisions and rules written within it and how vital its passage is glosses over the single question when if asked causes this entire house of cards argument to collapse:

If this administration and the ones before it didn’t see fit to obey and/or enforce the existing laws on the books for whatever ideological or political reason they had before. Why does anybody think this administration or future ones will enforce the provisions of this NEW law that they don’t like?

“I’m not going to close the border or enforce immigration rules, it hurts us politically. Oh these are NEW rules designed to do the same thing? Well that’s different.

The only problems this bill is meant to solve are the political problems of those pushing it, but I’ll talk more about that another day.

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Olimometer 2.52

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I’m not sure what to think.  My opinion of the Paul family is mostly shaped by Ron Paul.  You remember him right?  Older gentlemen, never met a government agency he liked, has a bunch of college-age follower-droids, ran for president several times.  Ron Paul is for many the only introduction into libertarianism they have had.  Having been “schooled” time and time again by Ron Paul followers who seem to all use the same pre-determined arguments (like zombies repeating what they were taught at the mother ship) against everyone and anyone who may even slightly disagree with them (like calling them “statists” and no different than President Obama), I’d grown weary of the libertarian movement.

Taking a look at the “liberty” platform, they definitely have some solid core beliefs.  Government should be smaller, much smaller. Civil liberties good, government intrusion bad.  Good stuff.

Then they go off the deep end.  They want to legalize all drugs, end the Federal Reserve (I’m sorry everyone, I agree it needs more review like regular audits, but you can’t just “End the Fed”), legalize prostitution, and legalize same-sex marriage.

Libertarians are natural allies to Conservatives on issues related to the size and scope of government (though I’m not sure both groups agree on the degree of that scope).  However, I cannot nor will I ever support legalizing heroine and prostitution.

But, given the mammoth size of our government, it seems that coming together on our shared fiscal concerns should be paramount.  However, I’ve never met a Ron Paul supporter who is able to have a meaningful conversation about areas of relative agreement between conservatives and libertarians.  As soon as I say something like, “are you sure we should end ALL foreign aid?  What about for war-torn countries or for Israel?  Maybe we should just reduce the amount we dole out and ensure our aid only goes to allies?”  The Ron Paul supporter will respond by flying off the deep end and telling me that I am in bed with the Left and that my ideas would lead to the end of America as we know it.

After having several interactions at various events during the last few years (and lots of arguing on Facebook), I came to the conclusion that whatever the Ron Paul supporters are selling, I don’t want it.  They are a badly-behaved bunch who lose the opportunity for persuasion by choosing to engage in disrespectful behavior with an all-or-nothing mentality that only allows for their version of libertarian purism.

So, you can imagine my surprise over the last several months as I’ve watch Sen. Rand Paul.  I fully expected Senator Paul to behave in office like his dad did (don’t get me wrong, I think that Ron Paul is a good man, but he was not an effective legislature).  I’ve gone from being pleasantly surprised at Senator Paul to now finding myself cheering for him and hoping that he is real thing (and this is not just a  show).  Consider the evidence:

Rand’s filibuster- Let’s face it, that was the best television we’ve seen in a long time.  It also demonstrated, however, the commitment of Senator Paul to issues he deems of vital importance.  He had a point to make and he made it.  He is a leader.

Rand’s stance on drugs – Rand has often discussed the overcriminalization of drug offenders.  He is not trying to legalize drugs, but to have a more reasonable approach to the so-called Drug War (are we still doing that?).  In other words, he has found a position that appeals to someone like me, a staunch conservative, and that may actually get some traction.  And he has a point.  Someone caught with drugs at a very young age can be in jail for decades based on our zero-tolerance policy.  I’m not sure I agree there should be no jail for drug offenses, but a policy that considers the nature of the crime and the individual involved is one worth considering.

Rand’s visit to Howard University – Senator Paul had the guts to visit Howard University.  He got both cheers and jeers from media onlookers and blogger-pundits.  However, it certainly was a gutsy move, especially considering the fact that he spent time after his speech in a Q+A session.  He didn’t ace every question, but assumedly he learned from his experience and will be even better the next time.

Rand’s recent letter on immigration – Okay, if you are like me, you are wondering what has taken over Senator Rubio.  He is peddling his immigration bill on all sorts of conservative talk shows.  He is gutsy, for sure.  To actually have an on-air interview with Mark Levin on an issue Levin disagrees with is, well, nearly suicidal.  But, trying to push the bill through without reasonable debate is naturally causing concern by many.  (Also, whining that not allowing illegals amnesty is like slavery crosses the line).   Senator Paul, in light of the tragic events of last week in Boston, has asked for more reflection on the immigration bill.  He sent a letter to Sen. Reid asking that the legislation be examined with analysis on the bombings and determine what immigration failures may have taken place.  Smart move by Sen. Paul.  He is absolutely correct.

Rand’s commitment to life – This got little attention, but a few weeks ago, Senator Paul introduced the “Life at Conception Act.”  He knows a bill like this will never even see the light of day, unfortunately, but it is good to know where he stands.  He had a fiasco recently on CNN when asked about abortion.  He said there are “thousands of exceptions” to his pro-life stance.  He later backtracked and confirmed he is truly pro-life.  I’m going to choose to believe he misspoke on TV trying to find ways to find common ground with the host vs. not actually being pro-life.  He’ll need to work on the message.  But, I’m grateful to see him introduce the “Life at Conception Act” legislation if for no other reason than it demonstrates where he stands.  Also, it ticked off liberals (and you gotta love that).

My point in all of this is Rand Paul is doing a good job of positioning himself close enough to libertarians to pick up some of their vote, but far enough away so as to remain credible with conservatives.  He certainly is not concerned about getting moderates.  That is fine with me.  So, when he runs for President (that’s right, I said “when” and not “if.”  Let’s not fool ourselves.  He is not just considering a run, he is doing everything he can to prepare for a run), I think he may be a viable option.

However, I would advise him to not use his dad as a debate coach.

Lisa @ AmericaisConservative.org

Marco’s Rubio’s CPAC Speech was well received here was the crowd

And here is the speech itself.

He was back to back with Rand Paul, what a double feature!

It was a strong speech. He will be tough in 2016

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Olimometer 2.52

Well it’s the last shot, It ain’t over till it’s over but it’s damn close.





Last week I was on a conference call with Americans for Prosperity. they put out their scorecard rating each member of congress. It’s an elegant card of excellent use if you want to see exactly how your congressman or Senator did last session.
You can pull your information based on the categories that mean the most to you:

search issue

You can also search by state, name or even by your individual zip code to see how your members of congress have done.

As nice as the page looks, what matters is the score. As you might guess AFP being a fiscally conservative group a person like Rand Paul does pretty well in their rankings:

Rand Paul

91% Pretty good numbers. It will come in handy when Rand Paul runs in 2016 but what about his most visible potential rival in the Senate Marco Rubio?

rubio

100%. A perfect score. That’s pretty impressive but scoring 10% higher than Rand Paul on Economic Freedom?. One would not think that’s possible.

If you are going to run for president as a fiscal conservative and you are scoring nearly 10 points higher than Rand Paul on the AFP scorecard that’s a walking talking Billboard for campaign contributions.

It will be interesting to see if Rubio can keep that score above the Senator from Kentucky. It’s the type of talking point that will play very well in Iowa and New Hampshire.

and That’s how Politics works.

I don’t usually do this but I predict Gov Mitt Romney will select Gov Tim Pawlenty as his VP on the GOP ticket.

Here is why it will not be Paul Ryan

The only chance Obama has is a base election. He needs to depress an energized GOP base and energize the Democrat base, Paul Ryan would do so, thus he is off the table.

This is also why you won’t see an Allen West, or a Bachmann, or a Palin or etc etc etc. Any strong conservative that the base likes and the left hates will not be the pick.

(BTW: In the long-term Ryan is more valuable in the congress selling a Romney budget/tax plan)

Here is why it will not be Chris Christie:

Christie has served only two yeas as governor. This brings the same experience issue as Obama. While he has performed well, it takes away an easy attack on Obama. Plus while Christie’s plain talk is appealing it would also energize the left, although not as much as the other choices above, and his clashes with the NRA and the right could be problematic.

Here is why it will not be Rob Portman:

Portman’s connection with the Bush administration gives the president the ability to link Romney to president Bush additionally his political operation will be more effective to turn out the vote if he is still in the Gov Mansion
where he will have the levers of power to use as a tool of persuasion.

Also Ohio is not going to be as close as some think.

Here is why it will NOT be Bobby Jindel

On first glance Jindel might seem the obvious choice, an excellent combination of a guy the right likes who doesn’t energize the left. He is also incredibly competent.

But what he brings to the table doesn’t change that Jindal didn’t endorse Romney till April after Santorum pulled out of the race. If he had endorsed him before the March Primary it might have been different but that is the type of thing that the Romney Campaign, which values loyalty, won’t forget.

Additionally the south and Louisiana is not in question for Romney, I don’t think Jindal brings a lot of extra votes (unless there is a large block of Indian-Americans in key swing states that I’m not aware of would would be excited by the first Indian American in the white house.)

Here is why it will NOT be Kelly Ayotte

Kelly Ayotte at first glance would be a perfect pick for many reasons: An early endorser of Mitt Romney, from a small swing state, Endorsed by Sarah Palin so liked by the right, and as anyone who has talked to her can tell you, a smart dynamic woman who has a huge future ahead of her in the party. So why would she not be picked? A few reasons.

1. Her experience is not executive experience.

2. She has served in the Senate around the same amount of time that Barack Obama did before he ran.

3. She comes from the same region as Romney (NH vs Mass)

4. The MSM will “Palinize” her in an attempt to destroy her.

This last point is rather sad and will not affect her in NH in terms of re-election but she has a very strong future before her. Once that first term is done it will be much harder to hit her in this fashion. I think if she has ambitions for higher office I think finishing that first term would be the best long-term move for her.

BTW for all the reasons above except for #3 It will not be Rubio

BTW Keep an eye on Kelly Ayotte, if she is not on the ticket this time (and there is an outside chance she will be) you can bet your bottom dollar she will be in my lifetime. This woman has a spectacular future ahead of her.

And here is why it WILL be Tim Pawlenty

Tim Pawlenty has been a governor he has the executive experience that supplements Romney

He comes from Minnesota and can draw votes from the region.

When he pulled out he endorsed Romney early and has been a loyal, effective surrogate for him.

He does not energize the left to any degree.

and here is the clincher.

Mitt Romney has plenty of opposition research on Tim Pawlenty from his own campaign. Romney knows Pawlenty and knows what the left has on him because he had it first.

For all of these reasons: I predict Mitt Romney will be selecting Tim Pawlenty as his VP pick.

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The DaTechGuy fundraiser continues. Mitt Romney had a record fundraising month I’m just $100 million or so behind him but if I can manage to get to that $7500 level I can pick up that used 15-year-old Mercury and have wheels again.

For details click here for the progress check the thermometer to the right and to kick in hit DaTipJar”.




And this is the clin