The World Baseball Classic has begun and we’ve had our first upset as the Netherlands shut out South Korea 5-0 today, however the more interesting game was Uber Underdog Brazil facing two time champion Japan.

Brazil was not expected to even make the tournament. It took two upset wins against Panama in Panama to get that slot.

Manager Barry Larkin’s team managed to take a lead at 3-2 lead against Champion Japan in Japan and was only 5 out away from an incredible upset when they came back with three in the 8th to win the game 5-3.

It highlights the fact you have to get those 27 outs to win in baseball, but it also emphasises that if you are going to beat a Champion, you can’t make basic mistakes.

And that brings us to the Mass GOP straw poll.

Today the Massachusetts GOP had a straw poll in Danvers won by State Rep. Daniel Winslow.

Any GOP candidate facing any democrat in a statewide election is a serious underdog in Massachusetts, considering said candidate is going to face a sitting congressman either Ed Markey or Stephen Lynch that is doubly so.

That means you can’t make stupid or rookie mistakes if you want to win such a race.

So can someone tell me why the GOP is holding their straw poll at a YACHT CLUB?

“America sent a message to the Republican party in November of 2012. And the message is we have to be inclusive, we have to be relevant to women, we have to be relevant to millennials, we have to be relevant to new Americans,” Winslow said. “So I think that the symbolism of being in a country club and requiring people to pay to vote is absolutely the wrong message to send.”

Now Straw Polls are usually fundraising devices so that’s not all that unusual but the following line from the GOP simply floored me.

“Well if they want to pay to host the event, they’re more than welcome to,” said Massachusetts Republican Party Chair Kirsten Hughes. She said the event was not a fundraiser and said the $10 per ballot was to cover the cost of the event — such as staffing and refreshments.

Basic math says that the 193 voters paid $1930 for the event. It what does it say that the Mass GOP found it necessary to charge admission to cover a $2000 bill? Both candidates for GOP Chairman in January boasted of their fundraising skills and reaching out to voters. Nothing says I’m a killer fundraiser like having to grab $10 a head to hold a straw poll (apparently they decided against a meat raffle because my local Knights of Columbus council had one yesterday). When you are facing connected insiders like Lynch & Markey, you want your candidate to run as a regular guy.

I don’t know who told the mass GOP “Nothing says regular guy to the voters like the words ‘Yacht Club'” but whoever did should stuffing envelopes from now on.

It’s only the top of the first so there is plenty of time, but you are an underdog playing the champs, you don’t have a margin of error for more of this.


Olimometer 2.52

This pay week has 5 hours to go and I am just under $200 shy.

10 people @ $20 gives me that gigantic $300 paycheck. Personally I think if the mass GOP invested $300 a week in the site they would have gotten better advice. Hold the event elsewhere, Find a donor to cover the cost and if you want to charge admission to make sure nobody stuffs the ballot box donate the money to the Jimmy Fund.

If that advice wasn’t worth $200 I’d like to know what is?

Tomorrow on DaTechGuy on DaRadio we have two interesting topics

in the 11 AM hour author Larry Correia will be joining us to talk about his Monster Hunter books but we will certanly be talking about his spectacular piece An Opinion on Gun Control the best treatment on the subject I’ve read.

Before that we will be talking yet another Mass Senate Race with Tom Lavin. Will we be seeing Scott Brown vs Ed Markey and who will be named as the place holder when Sen Kerry is confirmed?

Those questions and more will be answered on DaTechGuy on DaRadio Saturday 10 AM till Noon on WCRN AM 830

And if you want to ask question call us at 508-438-0965 or 888-9-FEDORA

If you are outside our 50,000 Watt Range you have a lot of streaming options.

You can listen live using the three different links for the WCRN live stream

If you are using Windows media player click here
If you are using Winamp clip here
If you are using real player click here

If you are using something else, then go to Tune-inhere

And don’t forget if you didn’t catch me hosting the WCRN Morning Show this Thursday you can catch it here.

The Moran Square Diner has been a Fitchburg fixture for decades host

hosting locals. Years ago Senator Edward Kennedy put away a Cheeseburger and a dog at this corner booth during his visit.

With election day 24 hours away Senator Scott Brown Bus came to Fitchburg

and after speaking to the crowd

sat in that very same booth

The Kennedy booth becomes the People’s booth

greeting voters and talking to people at lunch turning the “Kennedy” seat into the “People” seat as he seeks re-election and a full six year term to represent the people of Massachusetts.

It’s not surprising he would find himself in Fitchburg, and not just for the incredible breakfasts and lunch that owner Chris Giannetti has been serving to hungry customers for years.

or the hot chocolate that his daughter enjoyed after a brief interview:

good reasons thought they are.

It was because Fitchburg was one of the key cities that took Brown over the top, shocking pundits nationally and locally with his special election win in January 2010 which was the harbinger of the electoral pounding the left received 10 months. Inspiring GOP challengers such as Jon Golnik running in districts like Ma-3 where once the left once ran unopposed.

His 2010 victory remains a driver as the nation heads for the polls in 2012.

Gail Huff, wife of Senator Scott Brown greets a voter

It’s not an easy road. Incumbency is one of the few advantages Senator Brown brings to the race in 2012, this time around. Massachusetts remains a deep blue state (+25 registration advantage for democrats), instead of a special election with only his race to be decided he faces democrats above and below his spot on the ticket all trying to drive the faithful to the polls and finally he faces in Elizabeth Warren a person with a national following and reputation and millions of dollars to back her from some of the biggest donors the Democrat party has.

GOP candidate for Ma-3 Jon Golnik greets voters in Fitchburg before the Arrival of Senator Brown

These are tough hills to climb for Senator Brown and a source of comfort for Elizabeth Warren

But alas for Professor Warren, Senator Brown counters with two other advantages she cannot match for all the Hollywood dollars she may have to spend. He comes bearing a record as one of the most moderate Senators in the congress at a time where gridlock is a dirty word and “bi-partisan” is the favorite phrase of the media. He spoke of this in his initial remarks:

It’s very hard to condemn your opponent as an “extremist” when he votes against his own party 40% of the time.

Secondly there is Senator Brown demeanor.

Senator Brown has a well-earned reputation for listening to the voters no matter if they agree with him or no and being there when the voters need him. For years people on the right who wondered how Ted Kennedy kept his seat never taking into account his legendary reputation for constituent services. It is no accident that after being elected Senator Brown retained a fair amount of that Kennedy staff and shares that same reputation for listening to and taking care of the voters who sent him to Washington.

Senator Brown with a family at Moran Square Diner

This is why every poll of voters in the state during this race shows him drawing Democrats in numbers that no Republican in the country could ever dream of and why Fitchburg a city where, as Counselor at large Marcus DiNatale notes, Democrats have a 35 point registration advantage can be one of the cornerstones of Senator Brown’s re-election plans.

National Democrats considered this race their linchpin to retain the US senate in 2012, But as the latest polls and Senator Brown’s dogged campaign shows millions of dollars from the biggest elite donors from around the country will be hard pressed to counter a hand shaken in person and an ear willing to listen to a voter, any voter no matter what the party affiliation.

Democrats were shocked at Scott Brown taking “the Kennedy Seat” but as Senator Brown finished his meal in the booth once graced by his illustrious predecessor the left’s shock in 2010 is slowing becoming their resignation of 2012.

Today we have a special Bonus commentary where I go through the choices on my ballot and tell you who I will be voting for and why.

As you might guess there are not a lot of surprises here but if you want to know the reasoning behind it here is your chance.

Twenty days ago I took a look at a poll from WBUR on the Brown Warren race.It showed Warren up 5 pts but was the first poll I’d seen anywhere that matched registration exactly

A Boston Herald poll showing Brown up +6 came out at the same time. I did a post comparing internals of the polls and found the WBUR poll credible and the Herald poll not.

I’d like to Believe the Herald poll, I really would and I’m aware of a shift of people away from the Democrat party to the ranks of the Unenrolled but without solid data to back it up I have to believe the WBUR poll over the Herald one

When the next WBUR poll Oct 1st matched demographics again I complemented them on twitter.

it got some push back for a friend of mine.

My thought has always been I want accurate polls because otherwise you can’t fix what is wrong with your campaign.

Well the latest WBUR poll is out and for the third time in a row their demographics match registration EXACTLY, it’s quite an achievement these days

This time however the results are totally different:

It appears that Scott Brown last debate combined with different Tactics have shifted this race dramatically, much better than ignoring the results or dismissing them.

And to those who would pooh pooh my pushing of this poll, I didn’t hear you complaining when it showed Warren up.

Be afraid leftists, be very afraid.

I was able to Briefly speak to Senator Brown after an event at the Leominser Elks Club before the Johnny Appleseed festival in Leominster:

One of the things you simply have to love about Scott Brown is he’s so NORMAL. Consider the end of his answer to my question on his appeal:

“Last time I got votes from the Democratic party the independent party the republican party and quite frankly people who just like to party”

Can you imagine, Elizabeth Warren saying this? Can you imagine her even thinking this. She would be Dean Wormer making deals with the Mafia guy. Even worse she would be Neidermeyer.

The left is going to spend a lot of money in the Massachusetts Senate Race, they are going to say a lot of stuff and they are going to be very desperate in the end (Mika from Morning Joe not withstanding) but they simply can’t beat Scott Brown with a candidate like Elizabeth Warren.

And that’s not even touching on the Law License business

Update: I guess Sen Brown has this guys’ vote tied down:

For those too humorless to get it, listen to Senator Brown’s answers, he takes his job seriously as he should but he also doesn’t take himself seriously which he shouldn’t, that is the ticket to detachment not only from reality but from the people you represent.

In a sane and normal world this video would not make a single bit of difference in the Senate Election in Massachusetts:

However the odds of this not going viral is the same as Lindsay Lohan & Amanda Bynes deciding to become Amish so it is going to have to be dealt with. So here is my advice to the Brown campaign:

Best choice: Put out a statement saying something along the lines of this:

Although I agree with the sentiments concerning the NY Yankees this behavior is not acceptable, I condemn it and ask my supporters to conduct themselves with decorum. We are a campaign that believes in doing the right thing

At the same time I would ask the Elizabeth campaign to also do the right thing and release the info concerning her hiring. Professor Warren has claimed she did not use her “native American” to get these positions. The right thing would be to release this information and let the public see for themselves.

Acceptable choice:

I would like to come out and officially say I do not agree with or condone the actions of those chanting at this event. We expect all of our supporters to carry themselves properly and will not tolerate actions to the contrary.

Get a statement out before noon so it plays at once, this needs to be an old story by the time 5 p.m. comes around. After the statement is made, don’t go there again, if the media presses use the first statement to bring up Warren’s lack of transparency & contrast it to you “doing the right thing”

Above all let the Warren Campaign and the MSM overplay it.

Do not: Downplay or Ignore, Why, because the media will not ignore this and will run with it as long as you ignore it (and beyond).

There is a smart and foolish response for the Warren Campaign too, but as she’s not paying me and I’m on the other side so I’ll let her figure that our herself, my guess she will play it dead wrong.

Some things are just so funny and so incredibly wrong that they need to be seen to be believed

If you are having trouble making out the Bumper Sticker on the right here is another version of it with the same words:

What would William Jacobson of Legal Insurrection have given to be in my passenger seat when this picture was taken? I would have preferred it as well since it would have been a lot safer than snapping the photo while driving on Route 2 to Boston while laughing hysterically.

Today on DaTechguy on DaRadio we will be talking Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren in hour 1. and Inviting you to answer the question:

“Do you consider Elizabeth Warren an ethnic Minority deserving affirmative action protection?”

And to our friend on the left who are so scared of the question we will inquire as to why they are.

After 10;30 we will be talking with Matthew Boyle of the Daily Caller on this subject.

In the Second Hour will will bring in Sarah Rumph to talk about the Sean Bielat Campaign in Ma 4 and some new polling that suggest that Joe Kennedy will have a rough time of it.

Join us online at or on twitter at #wcrn call in at 508-438-0965 or 888-9-FEDORA and join the conversation

You know how everybody keeps thinking the Rush Limbaugh, Sandra Fluke business is has totally turned Obama’s anti-religious mandate into a winning issue for Democrats:

I know the pundits think this is a terrific issue for Democrats. They hope we keep talking about forcing Catholics to pay for birth control and “day-after” pills ’til November.

But do you know who doesn’t?

Democrats who actually need Catholics to vote for them in November. People like Elizabeth Warren.

What? Do you mean to say in the bluest of blue states Elizabeth Warren, darling of the left is not finding this a winning issue? Could this actually be?

Democratic consultant Dan Payne agrees: “Recently, issues that have been raised — whether to provide contraception as part of the health care reform and whether women should serve in the front lines of combat — have been on Brown’s turf,” Payne told the Globe.

I guess this explains why we haven’t seen Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren the intellectual force behind the occupy movement on front of this issue.

I took a lot of photos from the Scott Brown event yesterday, I’m including them in this post as a gallery.

If you want my video reports on the event you can find it here.

My story for the Examiner Scott Brown and the ‘Pods that didn’t bark is here, an excerpt:

All in all any experienced political operator looking from the outside would, from what they saw, find the whole event quite unremarkable, but the real story of the night was outside the hall in what could be seen, or rather couldn’t.

I came to the hall expecting protestors, when I entered I saw none. During the event I asked a police officer of rank about organized protest, he reported none. I spoke to Brown team members during the week, they expected protests and made a note of their absence and as I left the hall I saw but a single woman holding a sign across the street.

The most significant story of the upcoming campaign nationally will be the democrats trying to distance themselves from the occupy movement and will be the occupy movement doing its best to facilitate that image.

anyway the photos are below the fold
Continue reading “Photos from yesterday’s Scott Brown event in Worcester”

I’m sitting on the floor of the entrance way to mechanic Hall in Worcester as we prepare for the official announcement from the Scott Brown campaign for his re-election.

I will be setup in the print media section

Brown will be here:

the crew are checking people in

And the final pep-talk has been given.

I’ll update as time permits.

Update: Talked to state committee candidate Janet Leombruno about the event

WCRN is well represented:

Kalya Berube of the Brown Campaign talks to John Weston of WCRN

and will be broadcasting live from the hall

I took a Pan as we entered

And interviewed a brown supporter named Nancy

Our morning team Sherman Whitman , engineer Derek Drowne and Hank Stoltz

Update: Former congressman and WCRN Morning Host Peter Blute talks to me

Update another pan 15 min to go:

Just before the start

Update: Excerpts of speeches from Gail Huff the Senator’s wife

And from the Senator:

He is announced

Clip 1

Clip 2

Clip 3

The end of the speech

The start of the Rope line

And Sen Brown answers a question from me on the “Cease Fire”

Update: My collected photos are here.

State Senator Jen Flanagan (D) and State Rep Kim Ferguson (R) spoke at the twin City Tea Party tonight at the Border Bar and Grille to talk about Redistricting.

They spoke mainly about the process and spoke a lot about the Federal requirements concerning majority minority districts.

They answered a fair amount of questions and I have plenty of video that I will update with as soon as they are uploaded.

Continue reading “State Senator Jen Flanagan and Rep Kim Ferguson at the Twin City Tea Party 11-28-11”

While I was interviewing Bill Gunn, Tom Wesley, and Marty Lamb Sen Richard Moore was on the Air at WCRN, he talked to me right after he finished:

Conservatives I’ve talked to speak and think well of Sen Moore but it’s interesting to note that he talked to me about being a conservative democrat and opposing the majority in the state often.

The Times they are a changing!

Here is the video of Jen Flanagan and her opponent Neal Heeren at the Twin city Tea party on the 28th

I recorded these in about 10 minutes swatches based on my camera and the space on my two cards:

I actually think she made a good presentation. I thought her answer on “Tea Party Extremism” was a safe answer, but I think her answer on NH was week.

She did meet with people privately and talked for a while, as I said before she deserves a lot of credit for showing up.

Here is her opponent Neal Heeren

I missed the start of his speech as my batteries needed switching.

Without a question Heeren was a weaker speaker, he had to refer to his notes quite a bit on opening and seemed very uncomfortable on stage, rather odd for a lawyer. On the issues he was more correct but you have to be able to make the case to people. That’s a skill he can develop but if Flanagan keeps showing up and manages to make credible explanation and presentations it will be harder for him.

This more than anything illustrates why Flanagan’s presence was smart! Rather than avoiding the Tea Party in fear she confronts it directly. Were all her answers good enough? Likely not but you can’t beat something with nothing. She is an experienced pol and a personable lady. There is no reason why she shouldn’t make a good impression on the people she represents.

If what you believe is right it can stand up to argument. Liberals in fear of the tea party have conceded that argument. If they follow the example of Flanagan for good or ill that might change.

I’ll have Jen Benson and Kurt Hayes up later tonight

The Twin city tea party had its monthly meeting at the Border Grille and Bar yesterday. That in itself isn’t big news.

What WAS big news is that it included a candidates forum and two sitting DEMOCRATIC members of the General Court attended.

Jennifer Flanagan
(Sen 4th Worcester district) and Jen Benson (Rep 37th Middlesex District) along with their opponents Neal Heeren (4th Worcester Senate) and Kurt Hayes (37th Middlesex) showed up and took audience questions and stayed to talk to the people at intermission!

The significance of this can’t be overestimated. For over a year the media has been painting tea party members as wild eyed extremists. Congressmen and women have avoided town hall meetings in fear of encountering them and now sitting democratic members of the General Court attend events.

Both Jens deserve a lot of credit for doing so, it shows a respect for the people who will be voting in this election, but more importantly it shows that they are smart enough to realize that pretending a portion of the electorate must be ignored is a losing policy. Rather than giving the floor to their opponents they engaged the tea party members as voters to be persuaded.

Did they win any votes? I don’t know but I think both were impressive and helped themselves. Just as it is hard to stereotype the tea party when you actually interact with them it is hard to do the same with candidates who take the time to talk to you.

Incidentally I’ll have video uploaded and posted later in the day.

Is this an anomaly or is this the shape of things to come? Well as goes Massachusetts…

Update: Instalanche! Thanks Glenn, welcome all take a peek around. Find out why Foster Kamer is Vizzini, why the Iranians are just cowardly bullies, check out my cynical look at Church Closings and Dave Weigel and of course my Amazon reviews.

Update 2: This is actually the Second bi-partisian event held by the Twin City Tea Party. The First was on Flag Day and included the mayor of Leominster. The evidence of change in drawing local pols is evidenced by this video:

When local pols in the most liberal state in the nation feel comfortable being seen at tea party events the worm has turned. I think tea parties nationwide should take a good hard look at what the Twin City Tea Party group is doing and copy it.

Update 3: Here is the video of Flanagan and Heeren

Update 4: And here is the video of Benson and Hayes.

It is not the same as it actually passing or being signed by the Gov, but it’s a start:

The measure, which passed on a 28-10 vote as an amendment to the budget, would bar the state from doing business with any company found to break federal laws barring illegal immigrant hiring. It would also toughen penalties for creating or using fake identification documents, and explicitly deny in-state college tuition for illegal immigrants.

The amendment would also require the state’s public health insurance program to verify residency through the Department of Homeland Security, and would require the state to give legal residents priority for subsidized housing.

Hotair asks some political questions:

Assuming it passes the Massachusetts house, does Deval Patrick dare veto it? He’ll want to, of course, but he’s up for reelection this year and 84 percent support ain’t beanbag.

Since the Mass House isn’t as contested as it should be they might just not pass it, but then again maybe they know the difference between 300 & 10,000.

I was in the middle of writing another post when I heard Joe talk about the super-majorities and the nonsense of complaining about republicans. When the subject of republicans came up the words “Sarah Palin” came out of someone’s mouth and the first words that came in the background was “wrote on her hand.”

Not a word about the speech, how it was received, her popularity at Daytona, she wrote on her hand that’s all that matters.

but that wasn’t the amazing thing. Mika then went after Scott Brown saying the voters of Massachusetts don’t know him, he doesn’t stand for anything and voted for nothing. You ignorant Massachusetts rednecks!

I like Mika but I don’t remember seeing her anywhere that I went.

and that Kennedy seat nonsense from her? Maybe I should call her Mika Coakley.

If democrats want to know why they aren’t taken seriously, this is why. Contempt for the people.

9:03 p.m. Breitbart introducing her CNN & MSNBC ignoring him

9:05 p.m. Calls out the vets and salutes them.

9:07 p.m. “CSPAN you might not be welcome at the Heathcare negotiations but you are welcome at the Tea Party convention.” ZING!

9:08 p.m. Gives a shout out to Scott Brown, in many ways he represents what this movement is all about. Talks about the Dems passing blame about the loss in Mass.

9:09 p.m. “They won’t blame their agenda and that’s what got them into this mess.”

9:10 p.m. Democrats own this. When you have supermajorites one would think that went without saying but nobody in the media seemed to want to say it. “If this can happen in Massachusetts it can happen anywhere.”

9:11 p.m. “Competitive primaries are democracy in action.” Shades of Mayor Wong. “May the best ideas win.”

9:13 p.m. “Don’t let any one leader define the movement.” I’m sure the media will laugh at that considering her speech. She calls the soul of the movement the American people.

Hasn’t she read Jacob Weisberg? The people are the problem

9:15 p.m “On Christmas day the system did not work.”

9:16 p.m. “There are questions we would like to have asked this terrorist before he lawyered up.” CNN and MSNBC made a big mistake broadcasting this. They will have to unspin this stuff to people who would not hear this straight.

9:18 p.m. “We need a commander-in-chief not a professor of law.” This is really gotta hurt.

9:20 p.m. Questions the administration lack of support for Iranian dissidents.

9:21 p.m. Gives president Obama credit for following advice of the generals, seems to be a bit hesitant in her speech at times.

9:22 p.m. Robert Stacy Smittyis live blogging too.

9:23 p.m. Take a lesson from JFK all your problems are not the fault of your predecessor. Ouch.

9:24 p.m. The bailouts have become a slush fund, asks were are the consequences for the bad choices of Wall Street, that is one thing that Obama might echo.

9:26 p.m. Borrowed printed up made up dollars, we can’t sustain the programs funded by them. “It’s tough to tell people no in tough times.”

9:27 p.m. “how’s that hopey changy thing working out for ya?” , hits Joe “nobody messes with Joe” Biden , “they held that transparency meeting behind closed doors.”

9:29 p.m. Mentions the phantom districts and the overruns. “The list of broken promises is long.”

9:31 p.m. Reminds us of the promise of having bills online 5 days before being voted on. “We are drowning in debt and many of us have had enough.” This has to be the first time a lot of the viewers on MSNBC have heard any of this stuff.

9:32 p.m. “We’re stealing opportunities from our children.”

9:34 p.m. Calls for lower taxes for small business, this part is republican boiler plate. “They need to get government out of the way.”

9:35 p.m. Take the reset button from Putin and give it to congress on healthcare. Talks about allowing insurance over state lines and tort reforms.

9:37 p.m. We need all of the above on energy, give Obama a shout out on Nuke power but wants more than words. Attacks Cap and “tax”.

9:38 p.m. How can we best serve?…I had the honor of the lifetime in 2008… they want us to keep on fighting…We don’t need a leader like we’re a bunch of sheep.”

9:39 p.m. Gives a shout out to Stupak, “When we can work together we will.”

9:41 p.m. “The constitution provides the best roadmap for the most perfect union.” That is a tee shirt.

9:42 p.m. Says we shouldn’t have to apologize for our troops who are a force for good. Heads just exploded at MSNBC. Calls for civility.

9:45 p.m. “There is nothing wrong with American that we can’t fix as Americans.”, “Government working for the people is what this movement is all about.”

Just over 40 minutes. Ed on MSNBC calls it an “interesting” speech, Bob Shrum calls her a “Merchant of hate with a smile.” It’s going to be hard to sell that to people who actually heard this.

Palin Q & A. Didn’t know that was coming.

Q: How do you see the future of the 3rd party movement? “The republican party would be smart to absorb as much of the movement as possible.” That’s what normally happens to 3rd parties.

Q: What do you want to see from candidates here? A: Limited gov. Mentions we won’t agree on everything but the basics are important.

Q: What are the top 3 things to be done when he have a conservative congress? A: “Reign in spending and develop our resources (Green heads exploding now), not being afraid to go back to our roots as a God fearing nation not being afraid of saying we don’t have all the answers as fallible men and women. (MSM & Allahpundit heads exploding again) Don’t be afraid to proclaim their alliance with their creator.

9:53 p.m. “Who cares what the lamestream media says about us!” That’s going to stick.

9:55 p.m. “It’s cool to see blue dog dems peeking in under the tent of the movement.” Says they will come out of the closet as believers in conservatism.

9:56 p.m. Q: What is the Palin plan? A: “Support those who understand the foundation of our country.”, and echo’s Reagan’s “We win, they lose.”

9:58 p.m. I don’t think she knows CNN & MSNBC are carrying this.

9:59 p.m. She will endorse and campaign for candidates during this election.

10:01 p.m. “Don’t fake it.”, it builds distrust. Avoid promises you will not keep. MSNBC cuts away. CNN stays with it misses something key about her speaking fee happy to give it back. MSNBC is in full attack mode with Neil Boratz as their counter voice but attacks her for speaking up for life, of course he does..

CNN is replaying it or at lest seems to be doing so.

…has been sworn in.

Just got back from the Alamo restaurant where I met a friend and mentor from my first computer job for lunch.

The food is good, not as spicy as I’m used to, but the portions were generous and the people pleasant and the ambiance enjoyable particular for a history buff. The tacos were less spicy but had a generous portion of meat and the Fajita was very tasty. I still prefer the Boarder Grille and Bar but I’d eat there again without hesitation.

During that very late lunch I told my friend the entire story of Stacy’s week here in Fitchburg. He was totally fascinated by it.

And then he told me about his Polling place in Sharon Mass. He is a very liberal man in a very liberal town that ended up going for Coakley. He and his wife shake their head when they know I watch Fox and listen to Rush:

When he went to the polling place there were a bunch of Brown supporters in the cold holding signs for their candidate.

There were a pile of Coakley signs leaning against the building facing down.

He was VERY surprised at the Brown win he couldn’t believe that he could pull it off. When I asked him if that’s because he thought democrats would turn out or because he thought it would be stolen if it was close, he demurred saying he thought national democrats wouldn’t allow it. Make of that what you will.

Because of the long story and a train cutting across Rte 117 on the way home I didn’t get to see the Brown swearing in on TV.

But now comes the time to govern. If he does so honestly and above board and makes sure people understand why he takes the positions he does, he will do fine.

Update: Oh and Robert Stacy is on the road again.

Yes, that’s right, folks. Despite the law-enforcement dragnet across Virginia and Tennessee — “Be on the lookout for a black 2004 KIA Optima . . .” – I have arrived at an undisclosed location in Birmingham. Political intrigue and shenanigans are afoot down here in God’s country, and I’ll be updating regularly.

While en route — 785 miles in 15 hours, including a two-hour nap in the car this morning at a rest area near Bristol, Tenn. – I had several phone conversations with Alabama political activists. I’m learning more about the scandals swirling around state attorney general Troy King. A parade of King’s aides have been called before a federal grand jury, and the “Truth On Troy” blog has more.

Down in the Wiregrass Country (2nd Congressional District), Tea Party candidate and Marine Corp veteran Rick Barber slammed the Obama administration’s proposal to repeal “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.”

I met Rick Barber during the Brown campaign, he was up north volunteering to help out. He seems a decent enough fellow. I’d have no problem voting for him. I’m not familar with his opponents in the primary to make a judgement on them.

…in the Sherlock Holmes story Silverblaze The Left bank of the Charles notes the something missing in an old e-mail that he received before the election.

Might I suggest to the person he is referring to that she read about Tip O’Neill specifically page 65 of Tip O’Neill and the Democratic Century (my Amazon review from 2001 here)

“The soldiers like the thin mints.” said the girl scout when asked and the rest nodded. The thin mints joined the box on the side of the table where people buying cookies for the troops put them. As the girls took the money the two scout mothers, cold but uncomplaining, watched with approval as their troop plied their trade outside of the church.

“I was very surprised when he won.” said the taller of the pair and her fellow nodded in agreement. A native of the midwest who settled in Massachusetts after marriage, she was surprised at how democratic and liberal her new home was. Usually on election days her husband and herself voted the same side. This time however her spouse supported Republican Scott Brown.

Once the name was spoken the young scouts started talking about how cool they thought he was. This was in diametric opposition to the two leaders both of whom cast votes for Martha Coakley on the 19th.

The kids interest was not unique, at the school where she works the students reaction pleasantly surprised her. “The 8th grade students were really excited by the election.” she noted, “I had never seen them interested in any election in the past.” Like her own household the support was divided by gender. The Boys liked Brown and the girls were for Coakley, but it was their attention to the race that pleased her most.

Other Coakley supporters also expressed surprise: “I can’t see how he can credibly support the Massachusetts Healthcare plan and oppose the national one when they are basically the same thing.” said a 40 something system tech preparing for a night of Dungeons & Dragons. Another man who voted Coakley at the same game thought it odd that democrats would vote against their party “…because someone doesn’t play nice?”

Yet that was the very sentiment of a 30 something mother at the butcher shop who changed her mind on election day. It was the non stop negative ads that finally turned her away from the Candidate that only 4 days before she had supported happily to my face.

The Coakley voters surprise existed among Brown supporters as well, unable to convince themselves that their candidate would overcome the power of the Massachusetts Democratic Machine. When asked what they thought made the difference in the end, there was one constant answer. “I don’t think the heath care plan is a good idea”, expressed a Brown supporting woman at the local bakery. That sentiment was repeated over and over by voters on both sides. Martha Coakley’s unwavering support for its passage was costly and the President’s appearance only emphasized that fatal support.

Yet consider: Against an unexciting candidate supporting the most unpopular position of an administration declining in popularity, a strong dynamic candidate with a solid background, a personable touch to delivering a positive appealing message only managed 52% of the vote. Photoshops and victory parties not withstanding he needs to take that number to heart.

With only 2 years till he is up for election the question becomes: With healthcase resolved by then, how can Scott Brown win that majority when he faces a more prepared candidate running a better campaign? What will he have to do to persuade voters who voted for him once (and those he who didn’t) to pull the lever for him a 2nd time?

Among the gamers they accepted that he wouldn’t be supporting the healthcare bill that he so vigorously opposed but their issue was the Republican Caucus. “If he is just going to vote in lockstep with the Republicans to block everything he can’t get my vote.” (they might take heart from this story from the Herald today).

For most, both Brown and Coakley people the answer was the same. “If he can fulfill his promises he can win my vote” said the shorter of our Girl Scout Leaders. The mother of 4 thought he deserved a chance to see what he can do, expressing hope that the election would persuade democrats statewide to be more attentive to the people and less in lockstep with the Boston Machine. Her fellow agreed on both counts as did the woman in the Bakery and her husband. “He has to follow through.” she declared saying it’s one thing to promise changes, it’s another to actually make them happen.

The question really becomes a matter of voter perception. Will they see him for what he is: a junior senator of the minority party with one vote among 100, or will they imbue upon him all the hopes and dreams for a different direction in Washington? If they see the former then he is likely to succeed, if the latter then they likely will be disappointed.

However I suspect one person at least will not be. When asked what she will need from Scott Brown to earn her vote a second time our last minute decider answered with a single word: Integrity!

Needham Ma 7:58 a.m.

Exactly one week before the lot was overflowing. It was necessary to find a parking place far from the door resulting in a run back to the car when we saw then candidate Scott Brown leave for a press conference.

It was here at the phone banks where we saw what seemed a continuous stream of volunteers from all over the state and some from beyond anxious to help. On that first day we ran into a group from Michigan ready to get to work for the candidate they supported, but there just wasn’t room for them to even enter the office.

Today the parking lot had plenty of spaces and the regular tenants didn’t have to compete to get a close one. The frenzy of activity and the crowds were gone but there was still a gentleman at the desk politely but firmly protecting the office and providing the same security that he did during the campaign in other locations.

As I sat with him a man who worked for the building owners came in. I asked him about the difference a week made, he contrasted the relative quiet today with the energy of the place when this office and another one upstairs were rented by the Scott Brown campaign. The tenants had seen the people and the candidate and liked what they had saw. “It was very exciting time.” he said, “They all felt like they were part of it.” The office smoker had the best view. Most of the year he would find himself alone outside satisfying his nicotine fix. Over the last week his trips outside meant that he had plenty of company for a change.

That feeling of being part of it was shared at Mighty Subs a few blocks down the street. All during yesterday customers came in talking about the election, how they voted and how happy the result had made them (with very few exceptions). Arthur (the owner) commented how he had gotten an e-mail at the web site from some person from Free Republic thanking them for supporting Scott Brown.

At this moment his wife Karen came to the front to say hello. She was excited and happy about the Brown victory but was curious about that e-mail. I explained that the e-mail came from Stacy’s McCain’s stories featuring her. When she learned her photo was on the net her priceless reaction brought a smile to my face.

It was Karen who told us how personable he was as a customer long before he decided to run, and it was that sense of personal retail politics in the tradition of Tip O’Neill that made a difference.

Back at the headquarters there was contractor spreading ice melt in front of the entrance way just as I was preparing to leave. When asked about the election he was pleased with the results. The Senator represented his district before in the State Senate and had dealt with him on some local matters. He expounded on what a good guy he was and how he always gave him his ear. His previous votes as a democrat had been for Ted Kennedy but now Scott Brown was his senator and he was very happy about it. When asked if another candidate with similar views would have gotten his vote, he thought about it for a moment before saying “Probably not, knowing him made all the difference”

His reaction reminded me of three twenty something Coakley supporters that I talked to on the Red Line as we left the Obama rally on Sunday. They had come from Kansas and Oklahoma as AmeriCorps volunteers and had found themselves in Massachusetts, a state that matched their liberalism. As liberals they decided to help support their candidate with their signs since they could not with their votes.

In the Red states where they lived Massachusetts had a very particular image. They heard people weren’t friendly and their opinions were painted with a broad liberal brush. They found that people were very friendly and willing to talk just about anything. The more they got to know people the more they got to like both the people and the place where their work had taken them erasing the painted image with personal experience.

It was that same type of personal touch that Scott Brown brought to his candidacy taking away characture the left leaning media had tried to paint him with, allowing him to turn a 30 point deficit into a 5 point victory. The people of Massachusetts got to know him and that made all the difference.

Update: The Lonely Conservative links and directly says what this post hints at:

There are quite a few days between now and the election in November. GOP candidates – it’s time to hit the road.

The better you know the people you want to represent the better you will represent them.

Update: Camp of the Saints links to me and several other good posts on the aftermath of the election. Worth a read.

I’ve had a full nights sleep that hasn’t been preceded by a drive out of Boston for the first time in days. When I came downstairs Robert Stacy (I’ll sleep when I’m dead) McCain was still typing at the dining room table, has there ever been a person who works so hard for such a small amount of cash?

I took him for a quick cig run to Tedeschi’s market (that took over the store 24 in Fitchburg) and ran into the mother of a friend of mine who does Janitorial work at the Post Office and the Hospital. She said people were very happy in both locations, but for liberals the anger was extreme, but apparently not all of them.

The worst is that I can’t help but feel like the main emotion people in the caucus are feeling is relief at this turn of events. Now they have a ready excuse for not getting anything done.

Four days ago I told a certain Mr. McCain who happened to be sleeping on my couch that democrats in congress were hoping for an upset to give them an excuse to get out of yet another vote that could push them off the cliff. I thank Mr. Marshall for proving me right in print (well in pixels anyway).

Stacy is picking a bad time to leave Fitchburg. The front page of our local paper is that Planned Parenthood is about to open an office here. The must think the timing is good with 4 Catholic Parishes due to close by June.

It is in fact exactly the opposite, it’s not only bad it’s really bad. The natural anger that the closing would have generated at the church, combined with the anger over the economic and employment situation now has a place where it can be re-directed. The large Hispanic (I hate that word, what does it mean?) population here is very Catholic as well.

The only good news about this? With such a new opening perhaps the Charming Roxeanne will be in town to blog about it a bit and I can introduce the young lady to the wife and kids. My oldest is active in right to life, they should get along like a house afire.

Well the train beckons so I must go. It’s been a great week, but like Cincinnatus I now prepare to return to being just another guy looking for a job (that elusive $800 a week) in Massachusetts who runs a small blog where I talk about things that interest me.

Thanks for joining me for the ride, and if you like what you have read you are welcome to stop by to read anytime.

I’m still in a bit of a daze as I start to re-transition to a normal life and try to catch up on sleep but I noticed that I didn’t do the “fun” posts that Dan and Stacy did so here is some of that:

Would you believe I was so tired I didn’t recognize Norah O’Donnell? Until I read Dan’s post I didn’t realize she was there. Then again ok it’s Norah O’Donnell she’s there, big deal.

Ace of spades is a nice quiet guy, his actual self is so counter instinctual to his blog.

I must have been the only guy there not drinking.

Ali Akbar (Brown’s new media guy) is a smart young young who has such a clear idea of what he wants to do it’s amazing. With the experience that age will bring he will really be a go to guy.

Update/Clarification: I should mention that Ali is not with the permanent staff but was hired by the Brown campaign. If what I saw was any indication I strongly suggest any person thinking of running a senate/house campaign give him a call to snap him up. He will be invaluable to you.

Oh and did I mention that some bloggers had better seats than media. (I wasn’t one of them) but that’s ok, in my opinion the stage wasn’t where the action is.

There is nothing that gives you the impression of the approach of old age than seeing all these people working and having the thought “My God they’re so young!” go through your head.

Speaking of going through one’s head, Pam Geller of Atlas tried on my fedora and I had to look away, my comment was I’m glad my wife didn’t know what I was thinking at that point. What was that thought? My God is this woman attractive!

I also complemented her on her work, the stuff she covers is very important, particularly with the level of indifference concerning Radical Islam.

Funny story I was discussing radical Islam with her for a bit when I realized that I hadn’t introduced myself to the lady to her left. (I’d already met Kerry Pickett) thinking I was being impolite to a lady I apologized and introduced myself. That person was Karen Tumulty of Time Magazine. I get the distinct impression that she thought I was trying to schmooze (hey look time talks to me), but unless she reads this (unlikely) she will never know.

Speaking of Kerry Pickett she was filing stories from my dining room table on Friday night. You can’t help but like this woman, she has competence in places that people don’t have, and has the bluntness of my older sister. She also has what I call the “20 year face” she is the type of woman who will look just as nice 20 years later. She reminds me of my wife brains and beauty. The fact that some lucky young man has not married her is a striking blow to the reputation of the entire male sex or a tribute to her good judgment in waiting for a guy worthy of her.

And yes I’m an old Sicilian Catholic that’s the way I think.

Speaking of young smart woman one of the great pleasure of the night was speaking with Roxeanne, ironic as one of my favorite films is Jose Ferrer’s as Cyrano de Bergerac

The concept that 1000 people were interested in what I had to say on a webcast was fascinating.

Strangely enough I had no interest in talking to the Brown daughters, but I must say I felt very good for his wife Gail who must have spent a lot of time biting her tongue in the last few weeks.

Carl Cameron is a very nice guy and gave us respect and time.

I can’t wait to find work so I can get a new laptop, mine is on its last legs.

Take a look at this video from 73wire Real Clear Politics and see if you can spot something important…

That is me in the background, While most of the reporter types were busy talking to themselves, I was interviewing the waitstaff. Why? Because they were the only voters in the room! I talked to more than a dozen of them and got great information on all kinds of things. It speaks volumes that a room full of reporters didn’t think of doing this.

If you want to get real answers to real questions ask Joe Malone, not Mitt Romney.

The local reporters don’t know how lucky they are. The Brown win will lead to more competitive races, which are less boring to cover.

I am not used to the amount of hits and e-mail I’ve gotten, it will be a bit till I’m caught up, and I apologize if I didn’t reply in my normal prompt way. No wonder instapundit doesn’t do comments.

None of the celebration stuff hit me, once I decided the race was over in my mind I was already thinking about the next story or maybe it was sheer exhaustion.

On and speaking of celebration I discovered Atlas dances while sitting down as I do.

Speaking of sheer exhaustion I’m hitting the sack since I have to be out of the house by 4. I can’t wait to return to a regular sleep cycle.

…would take the right lesson or the wrong lesson from yesterday’s vote:

As I was driving home with Stacy after an errand I heard Rush reading this column in the Globe and I had my answer.

The sheer contempt for the electorate that the column and those who commented with approval of it drips of the bigotry I heard at the Obama rally combined with the arrogance of the Coakley campaign.

If the GOP doesn’t take advantage of this foolishness it’s only because they are not trying or in the word of Phil Sheridan:

Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell

If we don’t ride through them it’s because we are not trying.

Update: Camp of the Saints links and has pictures!

…who was so kind to listen to an old man pontificate. I’m actually at a 2nd computer so I will be linking to your blog as soon as my laptop is back up and unpacked. I will include said link in this post. and other.

And to the rest who are reading this, she may not think she has things to add to the conversation but after talking to her, I think she does.

Everyone has something to offer and that little bit can make a big difference. In yesterdays election everyone who voted for Scott Brown contributed a single vote, but together it made history.

Oh and check out her blog, a young woman of such intelligence and gifts, who has been quietly applying them to the cause of life, should be heard.

And to the nice young man who was with her, my complements sir!

And Stacy introduced me, for that alone you should hit his tip jar.

First Senator Scott Brown wins and now I see that Rich’s comic Blog has returned after a 27 day absence with the next chapter in his 3rd Doctor Saga, The Stalker of Norfolk.

All I need is that job and the week will be complete.

Update…and I trust you have been reading Robert Stacy, unfortunately we aren’t sitting near each other so I have missed his pithy wisdom.

Update 2: Ok that true Adrienne is pithy too and sounder theologically.

That I called this race at 9:39 a.m. yesterday. This was a mere 9 hours ahead of Michael Graham.

I know it’s considered bad form to quote oneself but I’d like to remind everyone that Zogby called it the other way and I said the following:

He is a big time pollster and I’m an overweight Sicilian in a fedora so attention must be paid.

The lesson:

1. Always believe the data points.

2. When given a choice between a big time pollster who makes a whole lot more than $800 a week and a currently unemployed overweight Sicilian in a fedora who has been riding Tucker Carlson for an $800 a week job; Always go with the overweight Sicilian

…and take the cannoli!

…but Dan’s system is snarfing something that my system can’t so I’ll type in my updates that I missed.

9:11 p.m Net is down again this is becoming a pain in the neck

9:13 p.m. Stacy is not a happy man right now

9:18 p.m. Talking to network lady working on it.

9:20 p.m. I’ve just been told that Coakley has conceded

9:22 p.m. The room just went up in a roar, they have found out and the crowd has gone wild….

9:29 p.m. Very jealous of Ace’s air card right now

9:40 p.m. Went through the crowd and talked to Joe Malone. He believes there will be no problem getting national GOP money to support local candidates for statewide office. He didn’t pad the answer.

9:50 p.m. Crowd chanting yankees suck when they show the Coakley stuff on the screen

9:52 p.m. Ace is blogging up a storm, since I can’t get on I’m searching out people to talk to for news.

10:01 p.m. The Loudest boo came when she thanked President Obama.

10:04 p.m. I’m still shocked it was only 5 pts.

10:05 p.m. For Martha Coakley the big question is: Can she get up off the mat and learn from this defeat enough to defend her job?

10:25 p.m. The warm up speakers are up, the crowd is VERY happy, I’m surprised how subdued I am.

10:28 p.m. Romney says the country has reason to thank us, he’s damn right.

10:31 p.m. Chant of “Gas up the truck”

10:32 p.m. Chant of “41!” followed by “People’s seat.”, now chant of “seat him now”

10:37 p.m. “It was all of us against the machine.” Boy I wish I could see Olberman’s face

10:38 p.m. Gail Huff is on the stage, I’m glad she can finally enjoy this.

10:39 p.m. He just said his daughters are both available, a bunch of heads at NOW just blew up.

10:43 p.m. Thanked John McCain (also was gracious to Kerry, and the President) should thank the Other McCain too

10:46 p.m. “When they’re in trouble in Massachusetts, they’re in trouble everywhere.” Democrats should be afraid very afraid.

10:48 p.m. Hits the heathcare bill, more than anything else that caused democrats to cross over.

10:50 p.m. USA chant

10:51 p.m. I really owe Dan Collins a big one for this.

10:57 p.m. “I’m nobody’s senator but yours” Down come the balloons.

11:00 p.m. I’m still pretty surprised at the smallness of the win. Expected much more, I will be very interested in the breakdown of the Democratic absentee vote,

Brockton: Talked to a voter: Very long lines at the polls, an even split between Brown and Coakley signs and people holding them.

Revere: My contact tells me that Brown is the subject on everyone lips. Martha is not. He informs me that for a Republican candidate to generate this much buzz in the city is unknown.

Jamaica Plain: Looking solidly for Martha.

Talked to a gentleman from Boston who voted for Brown, he has known the family for years and is delighted with the candidate, I asked if he would have considered voting republican if another candidate with Brown’s positions had been running. He was not sure, but he expressed no excitement for Coakley.

Update: 2nd report from Leominister from a different polling location. Long lines of voters no Coakley signs, several people holding signs for Brown.

Grafton: Strong Republican town and tonight will be no different, voters excited that they will be making a difference.

Randolph: Normally strong democratic, trending Brown, “she is not personable”

WBUR and the Globe report that the Coakley campaign is alleging fraud. I’m so glad I wasn’t drinking when I heard about that.

Talking to Carl Cameron from Fox now about what we have both seen. Barney Frank loudly proclaimed Ms. Coakley’s faults across the room with no attempt to keep anyone from hearing. This doesn’t happen when you have a chance to win.

Leominster again: Two different precincts. For the first time I have reports of Coakley people holding signs, at City hall it is dead even, at ward 4 one more Coakley person that for Brown. And a heads up to the Right Wing Gammer these are reports from guys you know.

South Boston: Not a sign in the window for either candidate, told that if this was a Kennedy Election there would be no question what would be happening. Southie being Southie people are not saying it aloud when I asked a man in a bar this morning (1:20 a.m.) who he supported, another fellow next to him told me it was none of my business although he used more “colorful” language however the people who have talked to me suggest it will be going Brown.

7:59 p.m. The crowd is just dying for 8 p.m. I’m wondering how fast the media will call it.

8:01 p.m. I think the lack of sleep is finally starting to hit me, I think I’ve had less than 14 hours sleep since Friday.

The main web guy is talking in front of me all about what they did right on the web.

8:12 p.m. I hate to disappoint my pal in Leominster who insisted that the “Brown Vote Fraud” nonsense was real but this report puts the kibosh on what I already laughed about. Wishful thinking on the media’s part doesn’t make it so.

8:15 p.m. The food was pretty good and the band is very loud, these people are having a lot of fun.

8:21 p.m. How loud is the band? I have ear candy in my ears, Dr Who the Mutant Phase playing and I can’t hear it over the band, on the plus side the Band is pretty good.

8:25 p.m. BTW did I forget to mention that I was introduced to Pam Geller a couple of hours ago (charming lady) and that Ace of Spades grabbed a spot between me and Dan.?

8:38 p.m. Net went down snarfing a nearby one. I normally wouldn’t do that, but I just interviewed Scott Brown’s brother Bruce and I want to get it it up.

8:57 p.m. Net is back up but believe it or not it was down while I questioned Scott’s brother Bruce and then Mitt Romney.

8:58 p.m. The crowd is cheering for a 5 point lead so far, I can’t get excited for something that I’ve already decided has happened.

8:59 p.m. I asked Gov Romney if the republicans can exploit the victory tonight, he didn’t like the word exploit but said that republicans can win if they support lower taxes, less government blah blah blah… Reasked the question saying how do we make this Berlin 1991 instead of Hungary 1958, same generic answer, before I could press on how to recruit candidates etc the national media started to swarm.

9:02 p.m. I asked about the dangers of the exceptions game due to the victory (that I’ve already claimed has happened we just don’t “know” it yet) he maintains that Scott is down to earth enough to not over promise and has the willingness to work very hard to achieve the goals he has set.

…with Dan Collins by my side and press credentials on our fedoras. Stacy is currently being interviews Breitbart TV streaming here.

The mood in the press room seems quiet I don’t think the enormity of what is going to happen has hit yet. I almost wish I was at the Coakley place since the reactions there are not only going to be priceless but the news in terms of what and how the democrats react will really determine if this resounds in Massachusetts the way it will all over the country.

with Stacy and Dan Collins to take our promised seats on blog row.

Late report from the RightWingGammer, in Newburyport, normally he would expect D+15; today it’s too close to call.

He also has some good advice:

DO NOT, I repeat, DO NOT think this is in the bag! Go, vote, then celebrate, but no earlier than 7:00PM please. Make the liberals there think differently. Catch them by surprise.

Update finally tally from Newburyport: Coakley by 1

In normal times candidates are looking for a strong person on the top of the ballot to increase turnout for people below it who do not have name recognition but share the party of that top name.

As we’ve reported here before, the one constant in this race has been that people do NOT like Martha Coakley (not even her supporters, I’ve run into only 3 who actually like her). Even with the superstars of the Democratic Party around her, she can not draw crowds comparable to Brown.

When you have an unpopular person at the top of the ticket, the dynamic reverses you need races on a local level that people care about to get your core voters to turn out.

But there is no other race, she is alone, she is trailing in the polls and it is cold and snowy. As of 1:44 p.m. there is STILL no person holding a sign for Coakley at ward 6.

The local democratic pols have absolutely no skin in this race and they see the probability of their regular voters ready to vote republican. They are not going to spend their political capital on a race that appears to be lost for no political reward.

There is nothing local at stake

Update: It’s one thing for the local pols to sit back and do nothing, this is quite another:

He is the president of an American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) local in Worcester and says that he is one of three officials of the local who is supporting Republican Scott Brown.

There is top-down pressure from AFSCME pressuring locals to support Democrat Martha Coakley, but the president of this local (there are multiple AFSCME locals in Worcester) says he tosses those directives “straight in the garbage.”

Make sure you read the last line in that story.

Turnout is steady at the polling station at the Senior center, more signs for the local Sheriff candidate and one sign holder for Brown. He’s getting a lot of positive feedback from the passers by. When asked if anyone showed up for Coakley they said one person stayed 30 seconds and left leaving three Martha Coakley signs turned face down against the building.

He Believes this is going to be the start of something big in the state for republicans.

Update: Stacy’s site is down again.

Update 2: Ran into the Mayor Lisa Wong as she prepared to go to vote, she was enthusiastic in her support for Martha Coakley who she has known personally since she was a young girl.

She thought the turnout might be lighter not just because of the weather but due to “election fatigue” due to so many special elections in so short a time.

When asked to predict the results she did not hesitate to proclaim that Martha Coakley would win the day. She lamented that the race seemed to be turning on national issues rather than local ones but praised contested elections “Contested elections keep us honest”.

Scott Brown certainly seems to providing a contested election.

Update 3: She might be more hesitant if she saw Stacy’s interview with Annie DiMartino. Annie is an old school Tip O’Neill pol. She would NEVER suggest on camera that Brown had the edge if there was the slightest chance for Coakley today.

Oh and one other thing: Annie is a saint and a friend. She never opened her diner on Saturdays because she used it as a base to organize supplies to food banks and directly to the poor and hungry. Anybody who says a bad word about Annie in my presence will have to deal with me.

Update 4: Would you believe I just got a call about a computer job. Absolutely no time to answer the questionnaire right now but I was able to discover that the person calling was a Massachusetts resident and will likely be voting for Scott Brown later in the day.

Update 5: Moran Square Dinner: The feeling there is the same as Mike Barnicle, Coakley ran a horrible Campaign. Among the customers who pass through she runs THIRD behind Brown and Kennedy.

…from people I know:

Leominster: Staunch Democrats wicked scared at what they are seeing.

Worcester: Democratic foot soldiers on the ground worried and discouraged.

Update: Got a call from a friend looking for tech support, no time to debug her system but asked her about the election, she dislikes both candidates but will vote Coakley as the lesser of two evils. That is the the race in a nutshell.

Ok the time for dithering and for hesitating is over, it is now election day and it’s time for me to directly say what I think the result will be rather than hinting.

I am called DaTechGuy, I do tech support, that is all about looking at a system and deciding what is going on based upon the data that we see.

I have been to events on both sides: Scott Brown’s people are excited, the Coakley people are going through the motions.

The Scott Brown people can’t WAIT to vote, the Martha Coakley people (and by some reports the candidate herself) are discouraged and dispirited.

The Brown people draw huge crowd wherever they go. Coakley rallies I’ve attended were at colleges where many of the students who attended them were not voters. At the Brown rallies a one or two Coakley supports would attend. At the Worcester event with Bill Clinton more registered voters were outside holding Brown signs than inside to see the president. In Boston proper, the city of Tip O’Neill the Brown supporters countering the president’s appearance dwarfed those who were outside for Coakley.

When debugging a system you go where the data takes you. I still have a bit of that pre-2004 Red Sox Fatalism that all Massachusetts residents born before 1985 have, it drove my early skepticism, but the data is the data and from what I’ve seen I there can only be one conclusion:

I say Scott Brown is going to win this race and I don’t think it is going to be close.

Update: Via Glenn Reynolds: Zogby is predicting a Coakley win. He is a big time pollster and I’m an overweight Sicilian in a fedora so attention must be paid. I have seen absolutely no evidence of this on the trail unless that small hint at the Coakley rally on Friday means more than it suggested.

Update 2: We use paper ballots in Fitchburg (glenn will be pleased) so if anything funny goes on it won’t be here.

Update 3: If this report by Michelle is indicative of the tactics being used by the Attorney General’s supporters then they are just fools.

There is nothing more likely to guarantee a full scale electoral revolt in this state and an even larger one nationwide than a stolen election here. This is short term political thinking live for the moment thinking.

The line at the polling station started before 7 a.m. and the stream of voters remained steady despite slick roads.

Poll workers said the voters were enthusiastic, they hadn’t seen anything like it before in a state where the results of National elections are a given.

Update: Talked to an elderly couple as they left the polls. There were excited to be voting in a contested race in Massachusetts and Voted for Brown. I asked what they hear from people they work with. That includes a lot of non-profits, and college people; traditional bastions of Democratic strength; they report a 55-45 split in favor Coakley among the ones they know. They expressed a worry concerning machine politics and dirty tricks.

At the roadside entrance to the parking lot where people traditionally hold signs for their candidates a single person holding a Brown sign was present when I came in. On my way out we spoke. He had been there since 7 a.m. and people driving in and driving by were honking and giving thumbs up the entire time.

He was joined by two guards from a local prison holding a sign promoting a local candidate for Sheriff. The guards were solidly for Brown as were the people they worked with.

Update 2: Robert Stacy is awake and blogging