Yesterday I posted on figures at Nate Silver web site showing Trump with a lead and suggesting it was time for Democrats to start panicking. That post scored an instalanche and as of this writing is
one of my more popular posts of the year.

However it didn’t take long for the “Nowcast” to flip back to Hillary and someone on twitter tweeters explained why

This is Nate’s Tweet

So seeing Nate’s tweet I clicked on it and it led to a poll from Raba Research

Now I don’t claim to be Jake Tapper but I have been doing this for seven-years now and until that moment I had never heard of “Raba Research” so I went real clear politics to find some info on them but couldn’t find their poll. I did a search on the page for “raba research” and the two results that came up had nothing to do with any such company.

So I did another search and found a PR announcement from Albrect Public Relations titled “Introducing Raba Research” Which celebrated their being noticed by Politico and Nate Silver.

The date of that Press Release? March 16th 2016

Yes that’s right, the first poll after the Democrat convention, the poll that shows Hillary Clinton with an incredible 10 point bounce, the poll that put Hillary back in the lead comes from a company that has been doing polling for….under six months.

Now I don’t claim to know the folks at RABA Research, they might be a lot smarter than me and their poll might be the greatest thing since the invention of Kentucky Derby Pie and there are such a thing as talented rookies, that’s why MLB has a rookie of the year award.

But if I was going to declare a 10 point bounce for Hillary Clinton convention in the face of massive protests, walkouts and empty halls that the media tried to suppress, I think I just might want to rely on a poll that has been around a little longer than Hillary’s granddaughter.

But that’s just me, I predict that on the Sunday shows and the Monday morning shows the Raba Research poll showing the 10 pt Hillary bounce will be the talk of the town and considered proof positive that the Donald Trump wave has reached its crest

Unexpectedly


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Pseudolus: [to Hysterium] Calm yourself down! I’ll tell you when it’s time to panic!
Miles Gloriosus: I smell mischief here!
Pseudolus:  It’s time.

A Funny Thing Happened on the way to the Forum 1966

 

If Don Surber smokes he’s lighting a cigar right now because here is Nate silver site this morning

time to panic

It’s one thing for a guy like me or Glenn or Don Surber or Even Rush Limbaugh to tell Democrats that they are in trouble it’s another thing to be told this by Nate silver the day after the Democrat convention and a week of the MSM lionizing all they did and said.

If you thought you saw some low tactics before given the combination of Clinton & Obama Panic you ain’t seen nothing yet. How Donald Trump handles will make all the difference.

Closing thought, Fyi to Dr. Jill Stein be aware that as a clear and present threat to their power the same anvil aimed at Trump by Clinton/Obama/DNC is heading for you too.

Update: Instalanche thanks Glenn, I see Nate is already revising and viola Hillary is up 51.7 – 48.2 but consider that not only has Nate underreported Trump in the past this still means that Hillary’s post election bump, isn’t.

BTW we have a series of six new writers who will be trying out here over the next six weeks. They are Tech Knight, Christopher Harper, Rh/NG36B , Ellen Kolb, JD Rucker Jon Fournier Each will be writing a piece a week here for six weeks and the ones who draw the most hits (both in views and via DaTipJar) will be staying so give them a peek and help decide who joins our existing Magnificent seven writers.

Update 2: Meet the MSM’s New favorite Rookie poll

Unexpectedly that is.


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This morning while figuring out what I want to say today I read two posts that clicked in my mind exactly how to explain the GOP establishment.

One of them was at Instapundit and linked to a piece by Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight on Donald Trump & Polls titled One less reason to be skeptical of Trump.

He listed reasons to be skeptical of Trump success and added one that was not data driven saying he expected the GOP Establishment to do all it could to stop him:

But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:

  • The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated.
  • Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better.
  • Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president.
  • An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.)

You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.

Now let’s look at Pastor George Kelly’s of my magnificent seven’s piece Is he or She a Conservative.  It’s the piece that precedes the one you’re reading now on this blog and notes the records of four candidates Rubio, Cruz, Trump and Carson. It’s Rubio & Cruz that I am thinking of here.

  • Senator Marco Rubio possesses a lifetime (ACU) score of 98%. One would venture to say that Mr. Rubio’s impeccable conservative credentials should be beyond dispute.

Alas, this is not the case.

Senator Rubio committed for many Immigration Hawks the unpardonable sin by supporting the GANG of 8’s Immigration Reform measures.  For this he has obtained the wrath of Boarder Security Conservatives.

Nevertheless, Mr. Rubio has been in the Senate for four (4) years and his voting record and public service testify that he is a True Conservative.

State Representative Marco Rubio was Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives when he mounted a race for the US Senate and ran against former Republican Governor Charlie Crist.

Mr. Rubio ran as a Tea Party Conservative; this writer is shocked and somewhat baffled over how anyone could call Marco Rubio “an establishment Republican.”

I’ve actually wondered that myself, I think what’s cost Rubio has been his attempts to spin what he did (or rather the spin of some of his supporters) instead of just saying.  Boy I tanked that didn’t I?  Pastor Kelly continues with Ted Cruz (who I’ve endorsed)

  • A look at Senator Ted Cruz of Texas’s (ACU) scores is equally impressive: Senator Cruz has a lifetime rating of 100%!  This is an astounding voting percentage (two years of Senatorial service).

Mr. Cruz is an intellectual wonder who graduated with distinction from both Princeton and Harvard Law School.

A similarity of both Senators reminds Conservatives of how far they have come since President Obama became President:  Both of these Senators are products of “The Tea Party Movement”; and both men ran against the Republican establishment.

A brief look at the two young Senators (Rubio & Cruz) is a testimony to the Intellectual and Political transformation that has affected our nation since William F. Buckley, Jr. founded “National Review” in 1955.

As the old song states, “You’ve come a Long Way Baby!”

Both Misters Rubio and Cruz are certifiably “CONSERVATIVE!

Now lets consider one other thing.  As Mr. Silver the party establishment is going all out to destroy Ted Cruz in Iowa.  At the same time the big money superpac for THE establishment candidate Jeb Bush who is floundering in both Iowa and NH and currently running 4th in his home state of Florida has been on an advertising blitz in NH going all out attacking not Donald Trump the leader, not Ted Cruz, not John Kasich who is supported by the Sununu family one traditional Bush family allies but Marco Rubio.

This tells me one of two things.

The Establishment GOP is still looking to nominate Bush and the plan is to take out both Cruz and Rubio early so that Jeb can be the only candidate standing as an alternative to Trump, the they can go all in against him.  Cruz gets the big guns attention because of his huge hard money advantage and incredible existing grass roots ground game in half the primary states already  & Rubio is left to Jeb’s moneybags on the theory that without a strong Iowa/NH showing he’ll can’t sustain his campaign long enough to make it to florida or be a threat afterwards leaving it Jeb vs Trump once again with the full might of the GOP ready to fight on Jeb’s side.

Under no circumstances can a conservative with the voting record of either Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz be allowed to be president.  Forget that both would be the first Hispanic to lead a major party ticket, forget Rubio’s gang of eight stuff.  We can’t take the chance that a tea party candidate be the head of the party particularly ones so solidly opposed to abortion.

Given the inability of anyone to land a punch on Trump (although Cruz’s latest ad is devastating) It’s possible that #1 is only Jeb plan.  After all the GOP establishment might be pragmatically thinking that they can’t stop Trump and the time to join is now while they can get something for it rather than later when it means nothing and his cooperation with their priorities will carry a higher price.

But given what I’ve seen of the GOP establishment in Washington , Massachusetts and particularly NH I think #2 is a pretty safe bet.

****************************************************************************

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I’ve commented a few times on how the media has, for the most part ignored Herman Cain and his early success.

Yesterday Dave Weigel wrote quite a few excellent posts but the most interesting was concerning a Gallup poll and Herman Cain:

Cain has come out of the gate making knowledge blunders (not knowing what the “right of return” is, for example), getting generally dismissive coverage. There is no team of reporters covering his every move on the trail, as there is for Huntsman. There’s no massive scrum outside his appearances, as there is for Pawlenty. And yet he’s outpolling Pawlenty.

That’s accurate, but while Stacy is ecstatic that his pal Dave is giving Herman some richly deserved props, I think he is missing the big picture here.

It is axiomatic that the old Journolist crowd hates Sarah Palin and will whenever possible knock her for a loop. I’ve already stated the MSM and the Democratic party (talk about redundancy) actually fear a Palin candidacy and will do their best to derail one.

Does Weigel do this, Why yes! While Praising Herman Cain he damns Sarah Palin in the guise of critiquing Byron York for missing the primary story:

But we’re talking about the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee who has been the subject of multiple books (including two of her own), two documentaries, and in some months as much as 50 percent of all media coverage of the GOP field. Fifteen percent? That’s actually about half of what she got in the very first survey of this primary, a February 2009 CNN poll.

Dave somehow doesn’t take into consideration in his critique relentless attacks from a media that never mentions her successes while always attempting to belittle her.

The simple fact is the left needs to stop Sarah Palin and the best equation to stop her has already been written:

(Social Conservatives+Tea Party) / (Sarah Palin+Michelle Bachmann + Herman Cain) = Romney wins in early primaries

As long as the left was reasonably sure Sarah Palin was not running, Herman Cain needed to be ignored by the MSM. They couldn’t take the chance of him becoming a threat to Mitt Romney and/or Jon Hunstman, who are the most likely GOP candidates to lose to Obama. That means any attention Dave gave Herman online wasn’t picked up by the MSM.

And while his obligatory Palin Bus post was fun:

I sort of like the idea of Palin doing this on Memorial Day weekend, a time when plenty of reporters (like, er, me) are headed out of D.C. Brings back memories of her giving reporters a July 3, 2009 assignment to cover her resignation announcement.

It seemed interesting to me the very day polls indicate that Palin might be running, Weigel’s first post is: “Gosh that Herman Cain looks pretty impressive doesn’t he?”

Well of course that’s just Dave. It doesn’t mean the old Journolist crew is back in business deciding to suddenly notice Herman Cain . I mean you’d need something like a pollster from Daily Kos writing for the NYT saying the same thing for that to be true wouldn’t you?

But what I found more newsworthy is the strong performance of Herman Cain, the entrepreneur and talk-show host who was included in Gallup’s poll for the first time. He polls at 8 percent, ahead of candidates like Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann and Jon Hunstman, who have received far more attention.

Well what do you know Nate Silver in the NYT is impressed by Herman Cain too! What an amazing coincidence!

Now I’ve already said I like Herman Cain, but mark my words, the “Journo-listic” MSM will suddenly find him a lot more interesting and worthy of coverage for as long as they think he will take votes away from Palin.

Will Herman take advantage of it? He’s not running to lose so of course he will, but I suspect that if the media’s attempt to use him to neutralize Palin succeeds then they will no longer consider him newsworthy or electable.

EXTRA UPDATE…CBS follows suit.

Update: Exhibit B: the DNC attacks

Update 2: On Morning Joe the entire thesis of the opening team is Sarah Palin is NOT running (One thing they didn’t mention her age, she would only be 60 in 2024 so she has a ton of time). They spent their time saying she will not, Politico also says she was not running, calling it an “attention grab”. (They don’t deign to mention this Byron York Piece)

And surprise surprise, who do they not mention by name? Herman Cain!

Remember the thesis, If Palin is running they boost Cain, if not they ignore him. As long as they believe Palin is out, Cain (who they also fear) must be kept down.

Update 3: Same theme on Today. They maintain Palin is not running so not only to they fail to mention Cain they don’t even show the Herman Cain Graphic in the Gallup poll. Can’t show a Black Republican in 3rd 5th place if Palin isn’t running.

Update 4: Welcome Conservatives for Palin readers, You will want to check out this post on why I support Palin and today’s DaTechGuy on DaRadio’s 2nd hour on political courage.

Update 5: Welcome Weigel readers, exhibits B C and D are here. Also might I point out that Charles Johnson and co are not arguing with me but with Paul Revere’s own words.

I really like Dave, only met him one but Stacy McCain vouches for him and there was something about the man that just seems right, but I think he’s dead wrong on Palin. But check out my stuff and make up your own mind and give me what for if you would like to.

Update 6: BTW Charles Johnson btw is having a very bad day.