Some things are just so mind blowingly ridiculous that it amazes me that they would be said.


Here is the WSJ article.

By a more than 2-to-1 margin, Americans say Mr. Obama is doing a better job overall than Republicans at attempting to unify the country in a bipartisan way, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

The poll found that 48% of respondents see Mr. Obama as trying to unify the country, compared to 22% who said that of Republicans and 37% who said that of Democrats defines “unify” thus:

[yoo-nuh-fahy] verb (used with object), verb (used without object), u·ni·fied, u·ni·fy·ing.
to make or become a single unit; unite: to unify conflicting theories; to unify a country.

Now I admit I’m just a blogger and radio talk show host but be definition and not a paid member of NBC or the WSJ but if 48% of the people said Barack Obama is uniting the country, then by definition 52% of the people did not?

No wonder the same media is trying to sell us Sequestration as a cut. They must think we are a nation of idiots.

Then again given the results of he last election…

Update: Glenn links while Sequestration brings back memories of my youth.

…with this statement concerning their just released polls:

In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats — 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats. . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

Amazing how the samples matter once Romney’s numbers improved in Ohio, I wonder where they buy their Cheetos?

Meanwhile in VA the previous D+4 sample becomes an R+1 samples and guess what? Romney now has a +1 pt lead! Change the sample and you change the results. How about that!

“But DaTechGuy” you say, “That party identification is psychological, people call themselves more Republican because the GOP is doing better and Romney is doing better.”

Well if that’s the case then we should see change in Florida. While there seems to be universal agreement that the Debate Moved numbers for Romney Florida remains unchanged, how can that be when other Florida Polls have moved…

…what a coincidence, the D vs R sample hasn’t moved and PRESTO the Obama Romney gap doesn’t move, even when the entire universe concludes Obama is in free fall.

Funny how that works isn’t it?

Mind you Florida & VA are the same states the Suffolk decided not to poll anymore because Romney had it cold.

Why do I have a sneaking suspicion that after the next debate (or perhaps after tonight’s VP debate) the party samples will move and the numbers will improve for the Obama campaign?

If people don’t realize they are being played it’s only because they don’t want to know it.

Update: take a look at the party splits vs the poll results from CBS

It’s worth noting that there is no measure of if people “lean” amazing how the results seem to match the samples within a point or two.

Yesterday I saw a poll out of New Hampshire, that was so unbelievable no incredible in its results that I thought it impossible that a TV station or a college would report it.

With one month remaining before the November 6 election, Barack Obama has opened up a statistically significant lead over Mitt Romney in the battleground state of New Hampshire. In the most recent Granite State Poll, 52% of likely New Hampshire voters plan to vote for Obama, 37% say they will support Romney,

There were so incredible that WMUR the TV station that commissioned the poll led their analysis thus:

The latest WMUR Granite State Poll is either wildly off or we will look back five weeks from now on Election Day and point to this date as the moment we knew Mitt Romney lost New Hampshire.

They are hedging on their own poll. My first thought was bad party splits, I was rather shocked to see an equal party metric in this poll. As this so greatly contradicts what I’ve seen on the ground I continued to look at the numbers and found these figures on the 2008 election within the sample:

215 McCain Palin Voters
309 Obama Biden Voters
14 Other
38 Did not vote 2008

That totals up to 576 people in the sample. How does that split? Here is the math

215/576 = 37.3% McCain Palin
309/576 = 53.6% Obama Biden
14/576 = 2.4% Other
38/576 = 6.5% Did not vote

Difference 53.6- 37.3= 16.3

So you have a sample with a bias of 16.3 points in terms of 2008 voters that is now +15, that would indicate a slight loss of support, but strangely enough they didn’t include a question on their votes in 2010. Just to remind you here is what happened in the state house that year:

Maybe it’s just me but I think this poll might be a tad more informative if it included how the respondents voted in 2010

It’s worth noting that a previous poll from the same group in Aug had a much different sample

McCain Palin 220/529 = 41.5
Obama Biden 259/529= 48.9%
Other 21/529 = 3.9%
Did not vote 29/529= 5.4%

Do you see the magic trick, you play with a sample and suddenly you have a trend. As I predicted after the booing God debacle:

Do not be surprised if there is a negative bounce from this convention or a poll released with a Dem +6-12 in order to hide just how bad things are.

And that’s what we’ve seen, polls so skewed that we have a convention bounce supposedly from a Clinton Speech that nobody watched because it was opposite a football game.

But even such BS can’t go on for long, particularly when people are finally catching on with the poll manipulation.

So what is the Liberal media et/al to do?

Well if it’s harder to see Romney behind everywhere put out a national poll that is close (+3 Obama with a +8 Obama 2008 sample & +6 D sample) to show our bona fides then as it’s harder to sell Romney behind everywhere in Florida suddenly usa a D+2 sample instead of the +9, in Virgina go D+5 instead of D + ungodly while in Ohio the state we’ve been saying Romney HAS to win we show Romney down 11 with a sample that is 50% dem and 39% +11.D and violá we have exactly what we need to be credible:

A more “balanced” poll showing a slight Romney trend without losing the “Mitt in Trouble” narrative.

The best part of it for the MSM? The media can by playing the sample game can generate the trend they want and will do so as long as they believe they can affect the results. The moment they decide it can’t be pulled off will be the dawn of Media Credibility day when the mission changes as it did the day before the 2010 elections:

So instead their new mission is to be perceived as actually reporting news rather than spinning it. Thus comes media credibility day, the day the press decides to act like actual reporters instead of liberal advocates, it will last long enough for them to claim that they called the election correctly…

And the moment the election is over

…then it will be back to the MSM that we all know and…well that we all know.

That will be the tell.

Update: Ann Althouse got there before me:

German Propaganda Officer: It’s the same dull stuff we’ve been doing. I wish we had something different, some kind of surprise

Leslie Smythe Bedows: What if we told the the truth about the Eastern Front?

German Propaganda Officer: I said surprise not shock.

Hogan’s Heroes “Who Stole my Copy of Mein Kampf?” 1969

There are two new polls the MSM is crowing about tonight.  Well when I say “new” I’m certainly not talking about the methodology.  Looks like the same old thing to me.  Lets start with the NBC WSJ poll:

In the presidential horse race, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden get the support of 50 percent of likely voters, while Romney and running mate Paul Ryan get 45 percent.

As you might guess the demographics of this poll just happens to be +5 Dem even though as I’ve already mentioned Democrats have trailed in registration the entire year with an avg deficit of 2.5 pts.

Such a national sample transforms a 50-45 Obama lead into a 52-43 Romney lead but when you look at the poll results it actually worse than it looks

Let’s look at how the people who answered voted in 2008

Ok 10% say they didn’t vote so to figure out the percentage these numbers represent we divide the figures by 90 removing the voters who didn’t vote and viola

Barack Obama 45/90 = 50%
John McCain 37/90 = 41%
Someone Else 4/90 = 4%
Not Sure 4/90 = 4%

Vs Actual Results
Barack Obama 52.9
McCain 45.7
Other 1.4

OK assuming these people are NOT lying not only do they oversample independents by 6.6 points (I suggest there are a lot of Obama voters hiding there but I have no proof) but based on 2008 figures Obama is undersampled by 2.9 points while McCain is undersampled by 4.7.

Does anyone seriously think the GOP voting sample has dropped 4.7 points from 2008 levels.  Is anyone ANYONE willing to make that case?

In Virgina the Washington Post manages to get even worse

With just seven weeks of campaigning left before the November election, President Obama holds a clear lead over Mitt Romney in Virginia, buoyed by growing optimism about the state of the country and fueled by a big gender gap working in his favor, according to a new Washington Post poll.

Obama leads his Republican rival 52 percent to 44 percent among likely voters. Among all registered voters, the president leads 50 percent to 43 percent, a margin identical to that recorded in a survey in early May. That indicates that Romney has made up little ground during four months of intense advertising and campaign visits.

Wow an 8 point lead, Romney doesn’t have a chance…until you look at the partisian split:

A +8 Dem split in a +3 GOP state would seemingly turn a 8 pt dem lead into a 3 pt GOP advantage but believe it or not again it’s worse than it looks.

The party split in VA is 39-36 in favor of the GOP so that means that while this poll undersamples dems by 4 points (11%) They under sample republicans by 15 points a full 38% percent

There are a lot of words you can use to describe this kind of poll but if you have an honest bone in your body “News” isn’t one of them.

Today Politico, MSNBC, the Washington Post and the Moderate Voice all breathlessly report that while the negative campaign has brought down the popularity of both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, the president leads Mitt by 6 points in the latest NBC/WSJ poll.

I was at the Weaver/Golnik debate so I missed the release of the poll but Allahpundit was home and noticed something important.

The 2008 national exit poll sample, taken when Hopenchange fever was at its zenith, was 39D/32R/29I, or D+7. This one, after three years of Obamanomics dreck, is somehow D+11 if you include leaners and D+12(!) if you don’t. Anyone feel like taking these results seriously?

Bottom line in a poll 46% Democrat and 35% Republican, yet with an 11 point advantage the president only manages a 6 point lead.

It gets more interesting if you look at the internals.

One of the topics asked about was Obamacare, according to the internals 40% of the respondents favored it while 44% opposed it.

So in the poll the number of people who supported Obamacare was 13% below the total number of Democrats in the poll, while the number of people who opposed Obamacare was over 25% greater than the number of Republicans polled.

The obvious question is this. Considering that we are in an internet age and the internals of this poll are available why on earth would NBC/WSJ even bother to release a poll so skewed that it can be debunked in about 19 seconds?

The answer lies in the links I lead with. Each of the sites primary audience consists of leftists and none of them mention the D11 split.

This poll has nothing to do with reporting the state of the race, it has everything to do with convincing the left that president Obama is not in the trouble he is in.

For us on the right willing to actually read the internals of this poll and know what it means it says one thing:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

If they are playing these games in July you can’t imagine what will happen in October.

Update: Instalanche Thanks Glenn

The DaTechGuy Fundraiser lumbers on. The primary goal is $3000 with a race that might be closer than people think in Ma-3 it is going to be worth your time and money to kick in to make sure it’s covered. Any help is appreciated. For details click here for the progress check the thermometer to the right and to kick in hit DaTipJar”.

Looking at the latest NBC/WSJ poll and there are some interesting small trends within that are worth examining. Let’s start with Presidential approval:

Ok there is only a 1 pt shift, nothing seemingly to write home about. How about commitment to the respective candidates:

Over the last month Romney voters are three to seven points more committed to their candidate, while Obama voters are one to three-points less committed. It’s noteworthy that the drop in commitment is much greater for the president among those actually registered to vote, still the primary season for the GOP just ended so perhaps Romney’s better numbers are not as big a deal. How about the view of congress. That shouldn’t be affected by who is the presidential candidate:

So a GOP controlled congress is one point less popular while a Democrat controlled congress is three points less popular. Interesting. Time to look at the race itself:

Romney remains unchanged at 43 while Obama drops two points from 49-47 leaving a 4 point spread in favor of the president.

So the numbers indicate a slight move away from the democrats and the president vs last month, not really dramatic news…until you look at the May polling sample:

Vs the April one

The May sample polls 3% less Republicans and 1% more democrats than April. A full 4% difference in the left’s favor and yet with an extra point of Democrats in the sample:

  • Obama’s approval is down a point
  • Preference for Democrat control of congress is down 2 points
  • Voters Definitely voting Obama is down 1-3 points
  • and Obama polls two points lower.

Meanwhile on the other side with a 3 point decline in the GOP sample

  • Preference for Republican control of congress is down 1 point
  • Voters Definitely voting Romney is Up 3-6 points
  • and Romney polls the same as before.

And you are telling me that the GOP is only now figuring out Romney Can win?

Top Republicans, long privately skeptical about their presidential prospects, are coming around to a surprising new view — that Mitt Romney may well win the White House this November.

Margin-of-error polling, fundraising parity last month, conservative consolidation around Romney and a still-sluggish economy has senior GOP officials increasingly bullish about a nominee many winced over during a difficult primary process.

Guys, I’ve been telling you for MONTHS that these people are scared. All their actions have suggested disaster for a long time. Cripes the whole Stacy McCain Brett Kimberlin business, Holder and Harvard and even the Dylan Ratigan and Tamron Hall shutting off the mike add up to just one thing.

Ride Right Through them, they’re demoralized as Hell!

I know you’re late to the party but I’m happy to have you aboard.

When Morning Joe finally got around to covering US news today, they pushed a New poll on the Debt Ceiling debacle.

They stressed that 38% of respondents wanted the debt ceiling raised up 10 points in three months. The story has this gem:

When told that failing to raise the debt ceiling could jeopardize payments to Social Security recipients and military personnel, 49 percent support increasing it.

Let look a little deeper directly in the poll language:

(Some/other) people say do NOT raise the debt ceiling because doing so will make it easier to increase spending and harder to reduce the deficit, and will increase the debt held by other countries and passed on to the next generation. Efforts to control the debt must begin now and the first step needs to be to not raise the debt ceiling.
(Other/some) people say RAISE the debt ceiling because failing to do so could stop the government from meeting its obligations, including payments to those on Social Security and in the military, and cause additional harm to the economy. Efforts to control debt should be comprehensive and long-term rather than artificial and short-term.

Look at those two statements and compare them. One talks about long terms problems the other screams no Social Security or Military checks, what do you this is going to move people? (I note they still didn’t manage to get 50% for the Democratic position even with this nonsense.)

Maybe it’s just me, but but when a poll result doesn’t go far enough your way and you try to “inform” or “educate” the person your polling telling them that their benefits to get a different result, isn’t that is what we would normally call a push poll?

Finally lets look at who they polled, they certainly can’t do worse than the CBS poll ,but they put in a good effort:

Look at those numbers. You not only have the GOP outnumbered by the Democrats 40-32 in the poll (and the 3/4 of that difference are STRONG democrats) but look at the number from the last election they are even better.

You have a 14 point difference between those who voted for Barack Obama and those who voted for McCain. Look at that number and roll it through your head. They poll 48% more Obama voters vs McCain voters and MSNBC is breathlessly reporting that the Republicans are losing the message war?

Even better they say that 47% approval is pretty good considering all that is going on. Hey if you are polling almost 3 Obama Voters for every two McCain voters and you are only getting 47% that is not pretty good, that is Disaster!

Can you imagine the numbers we would be seeing if we had anything even remotely resembling the actual split in the country? They can, and that’s why the polls are skewed like this. It means they are scared and when they are scared there is only one thing to do:

Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell

This sort of stuff can only sway people who are uninformed and in this internet age, one is uninformed only by choice.

There are a lot of numbers being thrown around about the NBC poll today. On Morning Joe they point out Obama’s is given a 49% approval, but there are some internal numbers in this poll that you need in order to understand that approval figure and where we actually are. So lets examine the internals.

We’ll start with the splits:

Strong Democrat …………….. 19
Not very strong Democrat ….. 13
Independent/lean Democrat …10
Strictly Independent ………….14
Independent/lean Republican ..10
Not very strong Republican ….11
Strong Republican …………….13
Other (VOL) …………………… 8
Not sure ……………………….. 2

So this means that the skew of the poll to begin with is 42% dem vs 34% GOP. Gee do ya think an 8 point difference in party affiliation might have something to do with the numbers? I’d say polling nearly 25% more democrats than republicans might help the democrats bottom line figures a tad.

Now lets see how those people voted last time

Yes, Voted
Voted for Barack Obama ….. 42
Voted for John McCain ……. 32
Voted for someone else ……. 5
Not sure ……………………… 3
No, Did Not Vote …………… 18
Not sure ………………………. –

The spread of Obama voters vs McCain voters in this sample is 3 points greater than his actual 2008 election spread but lets look deeper:

Nearly 1 in 5 of the people who answer claimed they did not vote last time in an election that drew huge turn out, so lets extrapolate those figures without the 18% that claim they didn’t vote. What kind of spread does that leave us compared to the actual 2008 results (52.9 Obama vs 45.7 McCain)?

Voted for Barack Obama ….. 52
Voted for John McCain ……. 40
Voted for someone else ……. 6%

In the last election President Obama got 52.9% of the vote so the poll reflects that figure within 1% but John McCain got 45.7% of the vote. This means this poll under-represents McCain voters by over 11%

But if the McCain numbers were under-represented by almost six points how is it that Obama’s numbers are within 1% of his actual figure. Look at the “voted for someone else” figure 6%. In the election only 1.5% of the electorate voted for a non-major party candidate. How on earth does this poll manage to oversample that group by a factor of 4?

How is it possible? Well I’ve interviewed thousands of people over the past 18 months from all over the country. I have talked to many people who voted for McCain and were proud of it, but have not talked to a single person who voted for McCain who regretted it. I’ve talked to plenty of people who voted for Barack Obama as well, but I’ve also talked to many Obama voters who were very apologetic about that vote who now regret it.

I submit and suggest that quite a few of those who were “not sure” or “did not vote” or “voted for someone else” in this poll were actually Obama Voters who didn’t want to admit it. This would be consistent with both my interviews and the trends that we will discuss later on.

Now lets look at this set of numbers of registered voters and how they say they’ll vote in 2012:

Probably vote for President Obama ………………45
Probably vote for Republican candidate …………40
Vote for other party (VOL) …………………….. …2
Depends/Depends on who opponent is (VOL) …..11
Not sure …………………………………………….. 2

In the internals of the polls you can see that the 45% figure (with one exception a 43%) has been steady since Feb. I submit that this is a ceiling for the president. Consider in a poll with 42% self identified Democrats only 45% will “probably” vote for President Obama.

Meanwhile in a poll where you had only 32% republicans 40% say they will probably vote for the GOP. This tells you where the independents are trending.

Finally lets tackle that 49% approval number.

There are two items that needs to be addressed. The first is the approval trends that I have alluded to before.

In this poll for approval the choices are not “Positive” “Negative” and “Neutral” they are “Very Positive” “Somewhat Positive” and “Somewhat Negative” and “Very Negative””

If you look at the tend numbers for the first 4 months of his term he was over 40% Very Positive (Max 47%), for the following three months he was over 30% Very positive, since then “Very positive” has been below 30% (27% this month) Meanwhile the “somewhat positive” has remained between 18-23% throughout his presidency while “Neutral” has ranged from 9-15% (14% this month) This means that the trend since inauguration has been a full 20% of support slipping into disapproval.

Finally consider these demographics:

White ……………..75
Black ………………11
Asian ……………… 2
Other ……………… 3
Hispanic (VOL) …… 7
Not sure/refused … 2

It is not up to me to speak for the black community but I’m telling you that people of various nationalities tend to be less likely to critique on of their own publicly than privately. You will find this in families and in almost every ethnic group. You are even less likely to see an ethnic group publicly “disapprove” the first of their own in any particular job. The black community runs 90-95% Democratic and voted that way last election. If you think that more than one in 20 black Americans are going to tell a national pollster that they disapprove of the first Black President you are absolutely out of your minds.

One can spin it any way you want but if you look at the internals of this poll the bottom line is Barack Obama is hemorrhaging his popularity and barring some cataclysmic failure on the GOP side or incredible success on his side he is not going to win re-election.

Just got some of the most crushing news I’ve had in years, An Instalanche doesn’t cure it but it certainly can’t hurt.

Update: 2 Got my first ever link from the weekly standard. That’s kind of cool. Still a tad down but hard let financial problems get to you when you are fundraising for people who have lost absolutely everything.