by baldilocks

Gaddafi and Hussein are dead.

It’s said that North Korea’s Kim Jong Un doesn’t want to give up his nukes because of what happened to Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi.

After the US invaded Iraq, which resulted in the deposition and execution of Saddam Hussein, Gaddafi gave up his country’s nukes, only to be abandoned by the succeeding US administration – which resulted in Qaddafi’s deposition and execution. If the reports about Kim’s reasoning are true, it’s cogent piece of reasoning.

I’m Old Enough To Remember WhenTM Gaddafi publicly gave up his clandestine nuclear program and Syria’s Bashar Assad promised to pull his troops out of Lebanon, both saying, in effect: “I am not Saddam Hussein.”

As we know, the premise for the invasion of Iraq was that Hussein had Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), refused to give them up, and refused to allow UN inspection of those weapons. Following the invasion, however, no WMD materials were found in Iraq and the “Bush Lied” meme was born.

(Aside: for years that was the cudgel that Democrats – some of whom had access to the same domestic and foreign intelligence reports that George W. Bush’s intel advisers did and many of whom voted for intervention in Iraq — used to criticize Bush. These Democrat critics included former Senators Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, along with current Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer, all of whom voted “yea” for the Iraq Resolution.)

Bashar Assad

In the intervening years, various sources in-the-know have reported that Hussein sent his WMD materials to Syria. If this is true, then it was little skin off Assad’s nose to promise to pull back his troops; he had other many other plans brewing, thanks to Hussein, and at least one other source.

Then, in 2007, the Israelis bombed Syria, targeting what they said was a nuclear reactor under construction.

A video taken inside a secret Syrian facility last summer convinced the Israeli government and the Bush administration that North Korea was helping to construct a reactor similar to one that produces plutonium for North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, according to senior U.S. officials who said it would be shared with lawmakers today.

The officials said the video of the remote site, code-named Al Kibar by the Syrians, shows North Koreans inside. It played a pivotal role in Israel’s decision to bomb the facility late at night last Sept. 6, a move that was publicly denounced by Damascus but not by Washington.

Sources familiar with the video say it also shows that the Syrian reactor core’s design is the same as that of the North Korean reactor at Yongbyon, including a virtually identical configuration and number of holes for fuel rods. It shows “remarkable resemblances inside and out to Yongbyon,” a U.S. intelligence official said. A nuclear weapons specialist called the video “very, very damning.”

Emphasis mine.

The Syrian government expressed outrage about getting bombed by the “Zionist Entity,” of course, and even used the “Bush Lied” rhetoric, but did little else about it. In 2011, the IAEA concurred with Israel’s claim about the facility.

It turns out that the nuclear connections between Syria and North Korea go back to about 1997. If you’re going read at least one of the links, read this one.

So maybe it’s true that Kim doesn’t want to end up like Gaddafi or Hussein — or even Assad — and is using the only leverage he has to stay in power.

This business will get out of control and we will be lucky to live through it.

There is also an Iran connection – naturally – and the Syrian Civil war, and the Russian involvement … but this post is long enough. I just wanted to point to the items, incidents, and connections that nearly every public commentator seems to have forgotten and/or discounted.

Juliette Akinyi Ochieng blogs at baldilocks. (Her older blog is located here.) Her first novel, Tale of the Tigers: Love is Not a Game, was published in 2012. Her second novel tentatively titled Arlen’s Harem, will be done one day soon! Follow her on Twitter and on Gab.ai.

Please contribute to Juliette’s JOB:  Her new novel, her blog, her Internet to keep the latter going and COFFEE to keep her going!

Or hit Da Tech Guy’s Tip Jar in the name of Independent Journalism!

by baldilocks

This repost isn’t apropos of anything in the news at present, but reading it brings back some memories of those in the mainstream media and even some bloggers who thought that happy, nice talk toward Islamists would sooth their murderous intent and that tough talk would inflame them.  Ah, the Good Old Days!

Originally posted at my old blog on July 25, 2005.

Let me see.

Talking about conditions under which WMD might be used is out; talking about using WMD in the event that one or more is used on us is definitely out. And talking about potential targets of WMD in the event that one or more is used on us is mega-out and bigoted to boot.

So why don’t we just dismantle them all right now?

And if a dirty bomb is smuggled over one of our borders by Islamists and is detonated, subjecting hundreds of thousands to millions of Americans to one of the most horrible deaths imaginable, along with rendering an area of our country uninhabitable for X-amount of centuries/millennia, I’ll urge whatever government officials that are left to think hard and long before making the Islamists and their co-religionists angry/even angrier—assuming that the target city isn’t LA.

After all, I and my fellow citizens would still have something left to lose. Possibly.

No, I’m not serious.

I don’t want us to have to use any type of WMD on anyone. Twenty [2016: thirty now] plus years ago when I used to load nuclear missiles onto fighter-bomber aircraft in the Air Force, I used to hope the same thing. But I still went to work everyday and I still reenlisted several times; and even though I was no longer a weapons loader, I was still most keenly aware of the ultimate expression of military might of our Armed Forces. And though I questioned my role in those forces at one time way back then, I had that question answered by a set of terrorists, no less: one day it might be necessary.

I didn’t want to bring this particular part of my background up again. It’s too much like playing the “chickenhawk” card, as Froggy said in the comments to this post. However, when I read some of the posts and columns which excoriate anyone who even considers naming a possible WMD target of the US in the wake of a WMD attack on us and I notice the dripping condescension from many of the various “arguments” against, I am reminded that (some) civilians forget the arsenal of death on which this country is sitting and what it is for: deterrence, either before or after. The purpose of the arsenal is for making an enemy think twice about attacking us either the first or the second time. Anything other purpose is secondary–if it exists at all–such as whether a nuking will make a given group hate us more or not.

Otherwise, why bother to maintain it?

To have someone say ‘don’t talk about it’ and tell me that I am ‘irresponsible’ for doing so makes me wonder what planet they’ve been living on. Then I remember that I am the one who has spent most of my adult life on “another planet,” a planet on which anyone with functioning cognition knows what our military’s purpose is and what it is capable of, security clearance or no.

I think that the nutcases who would detonate a WMD on our soil should be reminded, not told, but reminded of what we have waiting for any enemy that would obliterate an American city. We can keep arguing about whether certain targets are strategic or not, but since this enemy isn’t organized in the nation-state government structure [2016: yet], that question is far from answered. And to assume that it’s never talked about in “polite” company outside of secure information access facilities is, as I said before, naïve.

Let’s hope, however, for enemy’s sake–and ours–that the question at hand is never answered.

Tom Tancredo was right.

UPDATE: Maybe this post is apropos of today’s news. The results of being nice…what difference a decade makes, not to mention a president.  (ht: Instapundit)

Juliette Akinyi Ochieng blogs at baldilocks. (Her older blog is located here.) Her first novel, Tale of the Tigers: Love is Not a Game, was published in 2012. Her second novel will be done in 2016. Follow her on Twitter.

Please contribute to Juliette’s Projects JOB:  Her new novel, her blog, her Internet to keep the latter going and COFFEE to keep her going!

Or hit Da Tech Guy’s Tip Jar in the name of Independent Journalism—->>>>

baldilocks

Nuclear ExplosionAs I grow older I have noticed that the world around me has changed. This is not unusual; change is the one constant in life.

One of those changes has been a gradual shift in politics to pure name calling and lack of, let’s just say, honesty with politicians. But, it isn’t just them. We elect them, therefore, isn’t the voting public at fault? Well, that is a philosophical question for another day, but applicable to this particular discussion.

As a nation, like it or not, we are about to enter into an agreement with the Iranians pertaining to their nuclear agreement. As a part of this “deal” Iran will obtain nuclear weapons. It is going to happen.

Who cares if another Nation has these weapons? After all, there are other nuclear powers which including the following:

  • The United States
  • Russia
  • The United Kingdom
  • France
  • China
  • India
  • Pakistan
  • North Korea
  • Israel

At least these are the known ones.

What’s one more?

The difference here is that Iran is spending loads of money supporting terrorist groups and their tactics and has also declared what they would do with these weapons should they have them.

Now, I know, someone is going to say, “Ohhhh those crazy Iranians are just saying that to make their citizens happy, they really won’t use them.”

Ummm, ok. Maybe, but maybe not.

Personally, I am well aware that there are conventional weapons now that offer up the same yield as a nuclear device. All one has to do is look at the MOAB for this sort of behavior. Google MOAB sometime and see the videos on YouTube. It is a conventional device with as much explosive power as the Hiroshima Bomb.

Back to the Iranians and name calling.

I have entered into a discussion with people about this deal. I have often been called names because I wasn’t 100% on board with the President and Secretary Kerry. Fine, call me names who cares. But I think it speaks volumes of where we are in this national politically.

If we can’t have a dialog for more than 2 minutes offering up concepts and ideas and backing those up with one another without being called names because I don’t instantly agree with you, well that isn’t going to offer up viable solutions now is it? If you keep putting down a person’s Idea long enough just because it does not follow along your party lines, soon you will get no ideas from other persons you are in fact requesting alternative ideas from.

Think of it kind of like incest. One generation down maybe nothing weird happens but sometimes you get Geoffry from Game of Thrones.

The only other thing that happens when I discuss this Iranian deal is discussed in my experience is the question “What’s the alternative, no deal? War?”

Think of it like buying a car. Would you spend Mercedes Money on a Hyundai? No that’s a bad deal. So most people would walk away.

Yes, no deal is fine in that case, and with the Iranians. It is ok sometimes to walk away.

But not when it comes to politics. There we just need a deal we can go on the news and say look we got a deal. Yeah, but it sucks. However, that isn’t on the news, but let that go.

Don’t believe me?

A former combat medic and I wrote a book recently called The Last World War (Available on Amazon in eBook and Print).This book was written by myself (usually a conservative guy) and a Texan, gun toting, former combat medic with two tours in Southwest Asia (including combat duty). I assure this particular part of a review made us laugh:

PC Pajama Boys write and AH/Future History Book? Is this what we have come to? Left Wing Obama Boys are now writing in this genre?”

Well let’s see, neither of us are fans of the President, neither of us voted for him, not that it matters. The review went on to basically indicate something that we thought carefully about before writing the book (which has other very complimentary, 5 star reviews btw).

The issue with this person was that if we are nuked by Iran the United States would respond (in his opinion) by turning Iran into a parking lot for a massive glass factory.

Well, I for one am not so sure.

Let’s look at the first few people in that loop. President Obama? Would he nuke back? If Iran had used all of its nuclear weapons and there were no other attacks imminent would he launch nuclear weapons? I don’t’ think so. He would more likely go on TV and demand calm while there was a “detailed investigation to determine who was really behind the nuclear attack.”

Let’s say President Obama was not the President for some reason (which happens in the book) and Vice President Biden is the President? Would he under those circumstances? I don’t think so either. Vice President Biden would roll his eyes, throw his hands up and look like a shifty used car salesman.

How about Speaker of the House? I know he wouldn’t. He’d cry, but not launch nukes.

The book is fictional, but the response by those who chose to not rate it well has all been politically based. Because apparently we have gotten to the point as a nation where two veterans who write FICTION novels are now accused of politics we don’t hold based on what may happen once Iran gets nuclear weapons if we assume the spinal fortitude of those who run our country to be what we have experienced it to be.

Now, personally, I am of the belief that nuclear weapons will be used again in anger. There will be more tests, and there will, almost without a doubt, be an attack using one at some point in the not so distant future. I leave it to others to decide what will happen when that occurs, but I believe what we have written was what would happen based on those in charge today. It would not be a nuclear response on our part. It would be conventional, and our conventional troops are the best in the world, and in my opinion, would be dominant as they always are.

I would like to conclude today by asking that everyone be more patient. Exchange ideas with those we disagree with, have the discussion. Listen to their opinion; ask them why they believe what they believe. If their reason why is reasonable to you perhaps you will change your mind. If it is not, well then you know where the flaw in their thinking is and (key word here) politely point out your why on that same subject, you might just get a convert.

I know someone is going to say, “Yeah well they won’t listen,” well no. Not at first and certainly not if you don’t try, but the exchange of ideas is what adults should do. We should not have name calling, especially by our elected leaders who use the nightly news I’m stuck watching to tell me how awful the other guy is, but never get around to saying what they would do, merely how bad that other guy is.

To the guy who wrote that review, thanks for reading the book, I appreciate you taking some time, but I assure you your review will not go into the annals of history as one we care much about as you admit in it that you stopped reading before the halfway point. Next time, review books you finished and not those you decided who I was and what I was before you bothered to look into the matter. Never, ever jump to a conclusion. Thanks!

We leave you with this thought. The next time we get upset with the ways those that lead this country behave, we have no one but ourselves to blame. We need to find the right guy, not the most “electable,” find the right guy and work hard to get that guy into office. Don’t let anyone tell you it can’t be done. I’m sure someone told that to a guy named Washington a long time ago.

Thanks for reading the post, and for those who have read and enjoyed my various works of fiction, I am humbled by you taking the time to enjoy that work. It is an honor to have fans.

With The Iran Deal  Munich II now in place (and with Democrats highly invested in continuing to prop up the Obama myth unlikely to stop it) the nations of the middle east have arrived at Decision time.

They pretty much have four choices

1.    Form an alliance with Iran:

Iran is about to become the regional power in the area one is either going to have choose sides.  If they think that nobody is going to be willing or able to stop Iran then it may be time to made an accommodation while there is still some leverage to be had.

After the anti-jew rhetoric that comes with such an alliance will likely play well with your population and by hanging with Iran this makes you automatically anti-ISIS which might get you some love from the west.

2.  Form an alliance with Israel:

Other than ISIS the one nation that will fight to the death against Iran is Israel, they are also likely the one nation that can and will resist them at all costs.

Plus while Iran is getting closer & closer to the bomb Israel not only already has it but has, unlike Iran, demonstrated a willingness to not use said bomb to destroy their enemies even though they use terror against them.

While such an accommodation might not be publicly popular given that the alternatives are being ruled by Iran or destroyed by ISIS this choice has a lot of appeal if you want a modern civilized technological powerhouse with you.  (Besides Israel has powerful friends in high places & I don’t mean the US).

3.  Build or Buy a Bomb:

 OK so you don’t want to be vassals of Iran and your hatred of Jews is so great that you simply can’t bring yourself to ally with Israel (or you’re afraid your people will revolt or join ISIS if you do).  The third choice is to get a bomb of your own.

Odds are you don’t have the time to build a bomb but the sooner you start the sooner you finish and if you are awash with oil money you can buy the technology, the expertise and maybe even the whole kit and caboodle.

Of course this option has risks.  If the Iranians finish their bomb first they might decide to strike before you can get your deterrent in place, or if your anti-Israel rhetoric is strong enough Israel might decide to preempt you first.

4.  Hope Things Change in America after election 2016:

This isn’t as easy as it sounds, not only do you need a GOP victory which is at best a 50-50 shot but you need a GOP president willing to rally the allies who will have a year of making money off of Iran in a tough economy.

And of course there is no guarantee that your country will still be in one piece by the time.

and if you are one of the few in the middle east that thinks this deal will actually work, sitting around doing nothing will make perfect sense in the hope that neither side will find you worth worry about.

Who knows if your position is high enough in government perhaps you’ll be able to steal enough to let you and your family retire to the west in style before trouble heads your way.

 

I suspect that we will see the nations of the middle east move pretty quickly along these lines because unlike the global warming crowd that has learned to make predictions that can’t be disproved in their lifetime I suspect we’re going to see the fruits of this deal before the regeneration of the next doctor take place, maybe even before Peter Capaldi’s days in the role are done.

For years we have all been watching the news about Iran and disagreements they have with a number of governments around the world about their nuclear program. We have all seen the discussions of sanctions, lifting sanctions, red lines, pushing red lines, and even had our own internal disagreements over what should be done about the aspirations of their weapons (or peaceful) program.

I have written extensively on this subject in various places as a scientist. Having a nuclear background myself I find the discussion interesting, if for no other reason than just how poorly nuclear “things” are understood.

A number of years ago I started writing fiction novels. It is something I enjoy, and have met with some very humbling positive reader feedback. I do hope if you have read one that I can include you as a fan. It is truly an honor to have entertained people.

The point of this discussion is that, like everyone else, I want to know what Iran wants to do with those weapons. That is assuming they get their hands on them. That caused me to read as much as I could of their official releases to see what their intention was, and nothing positive could be found.

Nations that want many nuclear weapons are defending themselves, a nation that wants four or five and has stated targets in mind I take issue with.

I do not think the United States should be the world police, nor should we dictate to everyone. But this time they have something in mind. That something led me to write a fiction novel. The premise of The Last World War: Volume 1 Trial By Fission is my fictionalized version of what happens if Iran gets these weapons and does what they say they want to do. I hope you enjoy the read and we do apologize to the one reviewer who said we kept him up at night.

Below is an excerpt from that book which can be purchased on Amazon in paperback and eBook format. It can be purchased in paperback or eBook for Kindle (which I will reduce to just a $0.99 download for the next few days).

 

An excerpt from The Last World War:

 

The news anchor kept talking, filling airtime no matter what, “I want to remind everyone, that we still have no idea who is behind these acts. We don’t know much of anything yet, other than there have been two nuclear explosions in two United States cities, which history will surely…please hold for a moment…”

She put her finger to her ear, listening intently to her earpiece, “Ladies and Gentlemen, we have our first video feed coming in from a helicopter over the destruction near Fort Worth. This is from a traffic helicopter that had yet to take off when the device detonated. Many of them that were in the air at the time were tragically downed when the detonation happened. This one had to be fueled then fly in from more than a hundred and fifty miles northeast. Ah, the picture is coming…” her sentence ended abruptly as she turned to see the picture on the screen behind her.

She was not the only person who would stop mid-sentence upon first seeing the images. The video of the scenes of destruction would stop even the most professional of newscasters all over the globe.

As far as the camera could focus the scene of the desolate landscape was nothing but giant piles of rubble. Pieces of what once were multi-story buildings, automobiles, what might have been a highway overpass, maybe a school bus were all thrown together in massive piles.

In the distance some portions of buildings could be seen remaining with some large missing portions. A steel beam was sticking out of one of the remaining structures giving a smoke filled, charred reminder that the buildings here were recently much taller.

A city was gone from the Earth. It was there, just this morning. It was there, and now it wasn’t. It had been turned into a pile of waste. The land was still there, bits of junk were still there. None of what had been the well-organized and constructed buildings stood in any useable fashion.

The cameraman pulled back for a wide shot and the destruction appeared to go on even further and wider than Frank had imagined possible. It wasn’t completely flattened out but looked to be something akin to the surface of an abandoned island in the Pacific, one of the ones that were used for testing of all kinds of weaponry during and after World War II.

Frank could not believe that what he was looking at had been a thriving metropolitan area just a few short hours ago. Being in the combat branches of the military he had seen destruction from bombs, explosives, and missiles, but this was far beyond any of that. If you looked closely in the distance you could see what appeared to be steel superstructures of buildings on fire. Given that this was a nuclear blast there should be no fuel left on the surface burning, this had to be the metal itself that had gotten so hot that it was producing a flame. It was too much for Frank to even wrap his mind around. That much heat, it just wasn’t possible that this was really happening.

The helicopter slowed. There was a static filled audio feed from the pilot. By now the audience had put together from the somewhat broken transmissions from the helicopter that on the images were from the edge, not at the center, of the damaged area. The fires in the distance were too massive and the pilot did not feel he could get closer without risking his aircraft. They were attempting to search for survivors. The recording of damage could wait until they helped what people they could. So far they were searching, but not finding anyone left alive.

The pilot was systematically searching the area. The camera panned down rather than pointing in front of the flight path in order to increase their chances of finding someone still moving. The pilot was asking for help of anyone watching his feed to alert him if they saw something he missed. On the audio feed the pilot could be heard praying to himself between official radio exchanges. He must have forgotten that he pushed the voice activated transmission button. Who could blame him?

The helicopter came upon what had recently been an elementary school. At least they came upon the remnants of a playground that indicated that is what this building probably used to be. It could have been a daycare center, but it was certainly something with children in mind. What remained of some of the children who had been on the playground could be seen littering the area. Their bodies had been turned to the color of blackened fireplace ash. Some of the piles of ash still maintained the shape of small humans who had finished their lives in intense pain based on the positions they had been in when they reached their final breath.

One small child who had been on the side of the building and therefore not “protected” by its structure was burned down to a pure white skeleton. At this discovery the camera operator and pilot stopped speaking into the radio. Their flight slowly, almost sadly, changed direction away from the blast center moving further towards the outskirts. The camera remained focused on the skeletal remains of the once playful child as long as it could as the nation and world took note of the price of this attack had cost the innocent civilians of the United States.

All that was heard from the pilot after this sad discovery was a very timidly voiced statement, “We are going to look further north for survivors.”

The news anchor came back into view as tears were streaking her makeup in silent emotions stains, “We have just received word from an overseas colleague. We have no reason to doubt the validity. There have been three nuclear explosions in Israel, our close friend and ally in that region. Our prayers go out to everyone in Fort Worth, Detroit and Israel. May God help Israel and God help the United States. We are at War. I hope humankind can survive this madness.”

She got up and walked off camera covering her face to hide the new stream of tears now flowing uncontrollably.

Frank closed the screen on the laptop saying, “Let’s get that first aid review underway. We have to get in there and help whoever is left alive.”