For reasons I don’t quite understand I found myself extremely tired yesterday and crashed at about 5 p.m. I woke up to two pieces of news spelling disaster for the Democratic Party and President Obama.

The first being NY-9. Both the Washington Post and the New York Times report that Bob Turner has won election in NY-9 the first time a republican has accomplished this feat since Woodrow Wilson was in the White House.

First the post:

With the outcome of his own reelection effort 14 difficult months away, President Obama suffered a sharp rebuke Tuesday when voters in New York elected a conservative Republican to represent a Democratic district that has not been in GOP hands since the 1920s.

And it wasn’t lost from lack of effort

National Democrats poured more than $500,000 into a last-ditch effort to save the seat and deployed former president Bill Clinton and Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) to try to mobilize voters.

But in the end they could not overcome the power of the surfing Rabbi, at least that’s what the the democrats are claiming according to the NY Times

Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida, the chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, said the district’s large concentration of Orthodox Jews made it unusual and meant the race had few national ramifications.

“In this district, there is a large number of people who went to the polls tonight who didn’t support the president to begin with and don’t support Democrats — and it’s nothing more than that,” she said in a telephone interview.

Yup people in this district oppose democrats so much that they rejected this very same GOP candidate last year by a 20 point margin and last elected a republican when the Ford Model T was still in production. The Post doesn’t mince words:

Democrats worry that the apparent drag that the president had on Weprin could be repeated and amplified nationwide during the 2012 elections.

“Make no mistake about it, the albatross around Weprin’s neck is named Obama, and Democrats who value honesty will tell you privately that the president’s 37 percent approval rating in the district is making it difficult for Weprin to win a race that in almost any other time would be a slam-dunk,” Stuart Rothenberg, an independent analyst and editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, wrote Tuesday.

It’s interesting to note the Times mentions Weprin’s vote to redefine marriage as a factor as well. I wonder if that will be lost on democrats in the state come 2012?

Meanwhile out west in a race Democrats once thought was winnable, the party came face to face with reality:

In Nevada’s 2nd District, the GOP used an aggressive strategy to lock it up for their candidate, former state Sen. Mark Amodei, as early as possible – to the point that national Democrats, once bullish on their chances there, never played in the contest and now deny they ever intended to.

Well of course they lost, this is a REPUBLICAN district, that means nothing. It’s not like the democrats didn’t poll well in their strongholds…

Even in Clark County, the liberal-leaning area in the district’s southeast corner that borders Las Vegas, Amodei, a former state lawmaker, took Marshall by 23 points.

Marshall did slightly better in Washoe County, which includes Reno, losing by only 10 points with 88 percent of votes there counted. That figure was a rare silver lining for Obama, who lost the second district but won Washoe in 2008 and will need to compete there in 2012 if he wants to take the crucial swing state.

Coming a few days after his big jobs speech and a day after his bill was submitted to congress it will be tough for the MSNBC/Morning Joe crowd, who live by the Times and Post, to spin these results as anything other than a rebuke to the president, particularly NY-9 where the same GOP candidate lost in 2010 by 20 points.

Remember none of this would be possible without the Anthony Weinernon-story“.

However the Democrats and the cocktail party left have not given up hope. They’ve found a person to reverse their 2012 fortunes in the form of…..Elizabeth Warren?

Consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren will formally launch her U.S. Senate candidacy in Massachusetts Wednesday morning, her campaign confirmed to POLITICO Tuesday.

Warren has been testing the waters with a listening tour over the last month and will release a video shot last week to kick start her bid against freshman Republican Sen. Scott Brown.

Liberal commentators at the Politico are ecstatic as are those at Talking Points memo Balloon Juice, the Huffington Post. Perhaps they might be less orgasmic if they read the first sentence in the Washington Post story concerning her candidacy: (emphasis mine)

Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard professor and former Obama administration official who became a hero to liberals with her sharp critique of the nation’s financial institutions, will announce Wednesday that she is challenging Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts for his seat in 2012.

A former Obama administration official is running against Scott Brown and democrats are optimistic? I can’t think of anything more politically tone-deaf the day after the most significant electoral rebuke to the president since the 2010 midterms.

And make no mistake, there is nothing more likely to get Tea Party activists who were unhappy with Scott Brown more fired up than nominating a former Obama administration official to oppose him.

On August 5th, 60 days after experts at the NYT scoffed at the GOP’s chances, this blog noted that candidate Weprin refused to publicly back president Obama’s reelection. I repeat the words I wrote then:

I don’t know what it tells you but I know what it tells me:

Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell!

Guys if you are nervous about 2012 it’s only because you haven’t been paying attention.

If I’m the GOP I would ask every democratic candidate on the state or federal level on Camera the following question:

“Do you support the re-election of President Obama and if so what will you do to aid his campaign?”

The answers should be priceless.

Update: Minor edits made, after all I wrote it at 3 a.m.

Update 2: Inserted a missing link

Update 3: The Lonely Conservative and Doug Ross link, thanks, and Mayor Bloomberg shows why he is the Democrats favorite Republican:

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg dismissed the suggestion the outcome has national implications.

No wonder Rinos kept talking him up as a presidential candidate

C.S. Lewis The Screwtape letters

The characteristic of Pains and Pleasures is that they are unmistakably real, and therefore, as far as they go, give the man who feels them a touchstone of reality.

Zero Mostel & Leon Greene: A funny thing happened on the way to the forum

Pseudolus: (to Hysterium) Calm yourself down! I’ll tell you when it’s time to panic!
Miles Gloriosus: I smell mischief here!
Pseudolus: [beat] It’s time.

While MSNBC and company tout last night’s Obama speech, anticipating its use as a mighty sword to slay the GOP dragon, two small special elections are suddenly appearing on the national radar. Nv-2 and NY-9.

The race in the NV-2 is not expected to produce a lot of drama. In the 30 years the district has existed it has never elected a democrat, although there has been a few close races. By an odd coincidence just after Ladd Ehlinger’s latest ad in the district we see Democrats folding the tent:

In truth, the party has all but given up on winning; early-voting numbers show a sluggish Democratic turnout, suggesting that Amodei is en route to a big win.

NY-9 is another matter: It elected its first democrat in 1836 twenty years before the GOP even existed. In 154 years since the party was formed and 70+ elections they ran in the district, Republicans have won 5, the last when Woodrow Wilson. was in the white house.

However Barack Obama has changed the equation and the numbers are looking good for Bob Turner.

Robert Stacy McCain:

There’s good reason for the Democrats to panic: A poll conducted last week showed Turner leading 44%-40% with 12% undecided.

Mickey Kaus:

The Public Policy Polling surveys affiliated with Markos Moulitsas’ Daily Kos web site have established a track record for off-year accuracy in recent months. They were eerily right about the race to succeed Jane Harman in my own district. (CA-36). They were right in the Wisconsin recall elections. So I’ve been eagerly awaiting their poll for the vacant Weiner seat, NY-9. Now we have some indication as to which way it will go, in the form of twitters from PPP’s Tom Jensen, including this one:

My pretty straight forward take on the first night of our NY-9 poll: Dems in BIG trouble. It deserves the caps.

Big Government:

Republican Bob Turner holds a 6-point lead over Democrat rival David Weprin, 50-44, in the race to replace Anthony Weiner in New York’s 9th congressional district, as the campaign heads into its final days ahead of the special election on Tuesday, September 13. The lead is significant, outside the poll’s 3-point margin of error, and suggests that Turner heads into Tuesday’s contest as the slim favorite.

Daily Kos:

David Weprin Might Lose —NEEDS HELP!

Now before you start thinking that Bob Turner is the second coming of Oscar W. Swift (the only Republican in history to be re-elected in ny-9) lets concede he has one intrinsic advantage over democrat David Weprin. He actually lives in the district:

That’s nice. So the Democrats are running a man who doesn’t live int he district and has no plans to move into it if he should win. I wonder how that would be spun in the media if Turner lived outside the district.

When you have Democratic heavyweights like Pelosi and Hilderbrand taking a personal interest in a race that shouldn’t even be close this means trouble.

With this election right on the heels of the presidential speech that the media trumpeted for weeks as a gamechanger such a once is a century defeat will be tough to spin away:

Barack Obama’s approval rating is 43 percent in the poll, against a 54 percent disapproval rating. So if they lose Democrats are going to struggle to explain how the election was a fluke, and not evidence that Barack Obama’s new jobs push is doomed. It won’t be like the loss of Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat, which enabled Republicans to filibuster bills, but it’s one less vote, and one unwelcome talking point just five days after his Big Speech.

That’s Dave Weigel writing for Slate, that well-known bastion of GOP thought.

And the spin has already begun as you can tell from tweets like this via Kerry Picket:

If democrats lose in NY-9 it is going to be seen as a repudiation of Barack Obama directly after his major speech. While the media will do their best to spin it otherwise Democrats in congress and democrats in states who will have to run on a ticket with this president will see this result and ask: “Am I willing to put my political future in Barack Obama’s hands?”

I think the answer to that question will make or break many a democrat.

So to anybody believing the MSM spin concerning Obama’s electability and the GOP’s field’s weakness I have one thing to say:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

Update: Ladd Ehlinger and the surfing Rabbi have weighed in, does that mean it’s all over?

So has Yid with Lid

There is a special election in Nevada and you know what that means. Ladd Ehlinger strikes again!

So if you are a reader in Nevada district 2 you know what to do, get out there September 13 and support Mark Amodei!

And if you are in NY-9 don’t forget Bob Turner either.

Good show on gored913 for bring Ladd on-board, good move!