Had a long wait trying to get my credentials apparently instead of being at the Convention center they were at Romney HQ rather than here so I had a bit of a wait before actually getting in.

Once I got in I’ve found it fairly boring, My PC was near dead from traveling and the hone needed charging so I parked myself in a corner and started waiting.

If there is one thing I’ve discovered it’s that:

There is a difference between “projections” and “results”

and there is nothing so fickle as the folks at an event like this.

Lots of mood swings, particularly when Obama was projected to get Pennsylvania (hey last shot to steal before the voter ID law and Michigan wasn’t a big thought but the New Hampshire numbers have surprised me, an awful lot of change in just two years, but then again a lot of people have been running away from Massachusetts. Considering the results from the state so far can’t blame them.

But people here are too busy reacting to early calls, the only thing we can simply do is to wait and let the results come in and see what the actual numbers are, there is no percentage in worry or speculation.

So I will sit and wait which when it comes down it is all that can be done now.

And before we all panic over projections let me note something.

About an hour ago they were calling question 2 as a winner with 7% of the vote in

As of right now it’s trailing 51-49 with 34% of the vote in.

Like in baseball, you actually have to play the game, so don’t get panicked or angry…

…unless someone charges you $4.75 or a can of diet pepsi

Update:
Scott Brown giving concession speech, Massachusetts voters getting what we deserve, I think Brown was better than Warren but perhaps the GOP should have spent some time selling conservatism rather than running from it.

Update 2: Stacy McCain has given up the ghost, I’m still waiting to see the hard numbers out of Wisconsin and I’m even more interested in where the vote is.

Update 3: It’s amazing what happens when you don’t have a 16-1 cash advantage over your opponent in Ohio to boost your chances.

Update 4: Apparently things have to get much worse before they get better, lucky for the US the “much worse” part is practically assured now

We are now a week away from election day and the MSM has been given a gift called Sandy.

Why do I call it a gift to the MSM? Because it gives them a story that overwhelms all others allowing them to put the election on the second or third tier as Romney continues his march.

I have been telling you for a while that the best way to determine what is happening is what people are saying, vs what people are doing.

Yesterday I was listening to Rush on a Minnesota radio station because all the local stations were all Sandy all the time and what did to my wondering eyes did appear but news of Bill Clinton going right there.

Now let’s be clear, There is the president, there is VP and there is Bill Clinton, these are the big guns for the Democrats and are not deployed lightly.

You are sending the single most valuable non-office asset the Democrats have to Minnesota? Not Colorado? Not Nevada, not Wisconsin, not Iowa, not Virginia but MINNESOTA?

How on earth do you justify this move with a week to go unless Obama is in trouble there and if Obama is in trouble in Minnesota then….

As for Pennsylvania we Reported Paul Ryan has done events there, which tells you plenty remember Time is the one commodity you can’t get more of and if Ryan was campaigning in PA last week that means something. Now both sides are spending money in the state but with a difference. The GOP money is a super pac outside of the campaign, the Obama money is DIRECTLY FROM THE CAMPAIGN.

If the White house is spending its limited funds in Pennsylvania then that says…

Finally Florida, the big swing state what are we hearing about Florida.

Zip

Florida WAS a swing state, it was a state everyone spend a lot of time talking about how Paul Ryan was going to drive seniors away from the party.

None of this has happened. This state is in now a Romney State

If the game is no longer being played in Florida and is now being played in Minnesota & Pennsylvania know what that says?

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

And if you don’t believe they are demoralized as hell, look at the faces of the MSM.

Update
Stacy who is on the ground in Ohio gets it:

Yesterday, Jim Messina called the Romney super-PAC’s ad buy in Pennsylvania “desperate.” Today? Yeah, Obama’s buying ads in Pennsylvania.

Does this mean Romney is going to win Pennsylvania? No, but it does mean that it’s close enough that Team Obama couldn’t afford to let Romney air ads unopposed in Pennsylvania. And this news, coming just four days after it was reported that Team Obama is buying ads in Minnesota, is the best indication that Democrat insiders know that the president’s re-election is seriously endangered.

Guys, Romney is going to win this race and it’s not going to be close.

There are two polls I checked out before leaving the hotel today, both had bad news for the GOP but beyond that there is nothing else in common.

One is the WBUR poll on the Brown Warren Race. The WBUR poll shows a big swing toward Warren, now up by 5.

I’ve looked at the internals of the WBUR poll and as always they are spot on.

Although I want Scott Brown to win, this poll pleases me, Brown has made some big mistakes in the air war (more on that tomorrow) and hopefully this poll will cause him to pivot to a better strategy, the one that gave him the lead in the first place.

You can’t correct a problem unless you know it’s there, this poll informs the Brown campaign of a problem and thus is useful

I like that!

While I like the WBUR poll I absolutely LOVE the Time Magazine poll in Ohio showing Obama up 5.

You might ask: “DaTechGuy have you gone roadtrip crazy? Why would you love a poll showing Romney losing Ohio?”

Simple I looked at the internals of this poll. Unlike most polls the partisan splits are not as obvious, you have to do some math but it’s really quite simple.

They polled 783 people in the unweighed sample 290 Democrats, 220 Republicans and 224 independent. That comes out to a sample that is Dem 37.0% GOP 28.0 and 28.6 Ind That’s D+9

With 742 total respondents you have 273 Dems, 206 GOP and 215 independents that’s a split of 36.7% dems, 27.7% GOP and 28.9 Ind. Again a D+9 split

As Ohio is a +1 GOP state on registration this indicates the MSM has gone back to the “spin the polls” business to keep their people on the registration.

I’m delighted by this, it means the Obama campaign and the MSM has decided there is no way to reverse these numbers short of simple propaganda, this means they will not change their strategy and this race is finished.

Either that or the left is in denial, that’s exactly where I want them to be.

Closing note. In the studio on Morning Joe, Joe & Mika and the Panel are all hanging their hats on the Time Magazine poll, but Chuck Todd in Ohio hedged. Joe & Mika are opinion folk, they can afford to take a side, but Chuck Todd is the chief WH guy, he can’t look a fool

Mitt Romney is going to win this election and it’s not going to be close.

Bottom line.

10:30 Not a single vote has changed tonight, this race is over better get used to saying President Romney folks.

10:23 Whenever this spins to the economy it is bad for the White House

10:16 Bad move by the president pivoting to economy, another slow pitch for Romney to hit out

10:12 Debate has started to backslip again

10:01 The president playing the flip flop card, not a bad tactic, but would have been more effective if he started in 1st debate to establish this theme.

9:59 The President talking about travels less effective, Romney landing some solid blows now.

9:57 The point “you skipped Israel and the countries noticed” was devastating.

9:54 The green revolution statement is important, the media gave it short shift

9:50 I’m not seeing anything so far that will change the race tonight

9:44 Is it just me or does that horses and “we have aircraft carriers” business sound condensing?

9:33 That was a slow pitch over the plate from the president, and Mitt just hit it out: I don’t want to see for the next four years what I saw the last four years. Just what he needs, and ties the 5 point plan to foreign issues pretty well with the Latin America connection.

9:32 The “never stronger alliances” just doesn’t fly, but Mitt seems to be playing prevent tonight so far or is it just me?

9:27 Am I the only guy who can’t tell these two guys apart so far?

9:17 Rather quiet exchange to this point other than the small barbs

9:12 The line concerning 50’s 20’s 80’s is cute but pretending Russia is not a threat considering they have supported the bad guys consistently is nonsense.

9:09 The path is to get the Muslim world to reject extremism on its own. That will be very hard.

9:08 The President’s answer in terms of what he did in Libya, is patently false. However the back story concerning Libya is correct.

9:06 Rather long Answer by Romney on the first question

We’ve talked in the past about the Obama’s campaign’s fundraising and the trouble at the DNC is having concerning it.

At Instapundit Elizabeth Price Foley says the following:

Several reports over the weekend show that the Obama campaign is doing a horrible job at screening out/preventing illegal foreign donations.

Elizabeth you are totally missing the point, you are assuming that it is the goal of the Obama Campaign to screen out illegal donations.

The goal of the campaign is not to obey the law and screen out these donation, the goal is to accept as much money as possible that can not be positively proven to be illegal.

As I said in one of my very first posts, any Tech Guy knows the difference between a bug and a feature, this is a feature. As Instapundit reader Steve Nelson said in 2008:

Notice the problem with Obama’s websites?

Neither he nor his staff is censoring the comments…. but they’ve set the site up to allow others to do so.

Neither he nor his staff asked for any illegal foreign contributions, or for contributions from obviously false donors….. they just disabled the standard controls and credit card checks to allow it to happen.

They didn’t have any ties to whacky characters with extreme ideas…. but the campaign website allowed anyone to set up a “blog” and put out the propaganda.

In each case, Obama and his staff were careful to leave no directly illegal / unethical fingerprints of their own….. but they sure made it easy for “supporters unknown” to do so through their IT systems.

Deniability — it’s built right in.

It took me a long time to come to this conclusion and to say it openly, but when it comes to the Obama Administration we are simply not dealing with honorable people. To this administration the ends always justifies the means.

Bottom line these guys are Marxists and as we’ve said many times if you start from the idea they are all Marxists it makes perfect sense.

The Doctor: What are you a journalist?

Penny: Yes!

The Doctor: Then make it up.

Doctor Who Partners in Crime 2008

Robert Stacy McCain and the Sept Finance Report drives the final stake through the Democrats Heart:

The Democrats ended September with cash on hand of $4.6 million, compared to the Republican National Committee’s $82.6 million.

That’s nearly an 18-to-1 cash advantage for Republicans.

And if you think that’s bad this is worse:

the DNC, they had to take out loans to pay the bills so that they owed $20.5 million at the end of September, meaning that that (subtracting cash on hand from total debt) they were $15.9 million in the red — essentially bankrupt. Wasserman-Schultz’s committee only raised $3.7 million in September; at that pace, it would take them more than four months to clear their debt, even if they didn’t spend another dime in the meantime.

What is the most significant word in this story? SEPTEMBER.

You see the first debate wasn’t until Oct 3rd. September was the DNC in Charlotte. It took place the first week of the month. A convention that our media friends told us was such a success for the Obama Campaign, A Convention the media told us put Romney in a big hole, a convention that meant Romney would need a miracle of a debate performance to recover from.

Yet in the land of Realville in that awesome month for the left when the month when Republicans were going down for the third time the people who actually write the checks were so impressed by the party they left them in a state where they had about 6% of the cash the GOP did.

You can believe one of two things, either the money men all employed psychics who were under the influence of Pyroviles:

Sept 1st 2012 Big Money INC HQ

or the media was shoveling in the hopes of bucking up the left and scaring the right.

Believe what you want, here is what I believe:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

It’s easy to ride right through them when they can’t afford Horses!

Looking at the media reaction to the debate particularly from our friends in MSNBC perfectly illustrates the difference between Strategy and Tactics that I discussed in one of my premium commentaries.

The left seems unanimous that Obama won this debate decisively, they point to the “women” questions. They point to Candy Crowley’s “tackle” of Mitt Romney. They point to polls at both CBS that had Obama winning by 8 and CNN that had Obama up by 7.

Unfortunately Barack Obama and the left are looking tactically and not strategically, they are subjecting Barack Obama to as George Bush called it: The Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations.

Two weeks ago Barack Obama turned in comparatively one of the worst debate performances since Admiral Stockdale. The media and the left has been in panic ever since. They weren’t worried about Obama losing the debate, they were worried about Obama drooling all over himself, as I tweeted last night:

If you grade Barack Obama on the Denver Scale he got an A+, in reality this debate was about even, I gave Romney a 2 pt win but I have no problem with someone who gives Obama that same margin, but the goal here isn’t to be given the a nod on point, the goal is to win the election.  In the Frank Luntz focus group out in Nevada, a swing state it was DEVASTATING.

Note the only defenders of Obama were all “Romney is after our ladyparts”.

On MSNBC while the entire table was ABSOLUTELY positive Obama won, the verdict of actual voters of the focus group was quite different.

and when Chris Matthews threw a loaded question attempting to push the women in the panel away from Romney, he failed.

I don’t have the CNN panel video but they also split on where they were voting.

That’s the bottom line, it doesn’t matter what people think about winning the debate it’s who they will vote for as John King on CNN said:

“Yankee fans agree the Tigers won last night but they’re not voting for Detroit”

Romney is ahead if Obama doesn’t move those voters he is toast.  I’ll give Chris Barron the last word:

This race is over, start practicing saying: President Romney

Update: I suspect if the president did as well as MSNBC thinks there would not be a legion of idiots publicly vowing to kill Mitt Romney

Funny how the MSM doesn’t find this a story, isn’t it?

Update 2: the Evil Blogger Lady gets it.

There has been a lot of back and forth about “Will Barack Obama Throw Hillary under the Bus over Benghazi?” or vice-versa this week .

It was quite a situation, If Obama threw Hillary under the bus would the Clintons work subrosa against him? (I maintain they already have been.)  If Hillary threw Obama under the bus  would the African-American community make her pay in 2016, it’s one thing for them to be pissed off at Obama, it’s quite another for some white lady to beat up on him.

What do you do? Well Hillary has threaded the needle in a way that accomplishes everything she needed to thus.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Monday tried to douse a political firestorm around the deadly assault on a U.S. diplomatic mission in Libya, saying she is responsible for the security of American diplomatic outposts.

“I take responsibility” for the protection of U.S. diplomats, Clinton said during a visit to Peru. But she said an investigation now under way will ultimately determine what happened in the attack that left four Americans dead.

The moment I heard this I had one thought: This is the move of a political master. Consider what this accomplishes:

Seemingly:

It is a statesman like move, going forward and not ducking responsibility in a way nobody has been willing to do.

In Reality:

It covers her, by taking responsibility it heads off all kinds of stories that might come up with a theme of finding fault. Why should congress investigate to pin blame when it’s already been accepted?

Seemingly:

It supports the president, by taking the blame she shields the first Black president both showing herself a good soldier to the party and most importantly to the black community.

In Reality:

It undermines Obama by making her look strong, and him look weak. He is now forced to make some kind of statement second as a response. It’s the 3 AM phone call with her answering while he goes to Vegas.

Seemingly:

It ends press coverage on what the Obama Administration should do next, blame assigned move on.

In Reality:

It doesn’t end coverage it changes it.  What will the president do about this?  It puts Obama in a box.  Blame is assigned so what is the punishment?   If Hillary is responsible does he ask for her resignation, does he fire her? With his electoral prospects already sinking he dare not do either, and God help him if she resigns on her own. It would be another example of her acting while he is paralyzed.  It is the final act of Carterization of the president.

Seemingly:

It makes her vulnerable as every commentator on the right calls for her head in the hope of embarrassing Obama and taking her down a peg.

In Reality:

It gets her in good with the base of her party.  I can see the fundraising e-mails now.  “She’s taken responsibility and those nasty right wingers are piling on”  This will coin money for her.  That doesn’t even take into account how the press will react.

Seemingly:

It hurts  her 2016 election prospects after all she is responsible for an attack on the US on the Anniversary of 9/11 no less.

In Reality:

Not only does this make her look presidential (Expect comparisons to JFK’s Bay of Pigs speech from the MSM)  but it neutralizes her primary opponents on the subject, in fact for the second time in twelve years she will be able to paint herself as the victim of the irresponsibility of a man who should have known better.

Seemingly:

It hands President Romney a ready-made issue in 2016 to use.

In Reality:

It puts Romney in a box.  Every president has foreign policy failures and Mitt will have his share.  Imagine the debate  answer: “President Romney is right.  I was secretary of state during the Benghazi debacle and I took full responsibility for it.  What I would like to know is when the president will take responsibility for (insert relevant issue here)”.  It  will put and keep Mitt on the defensive.

The Bottom line is forgetting all the national security and moral issues involved. Hillary has done the thing that most helps her in the long run while all the time managing to undermine her foes on both the left and the right in one fell swoop.

That doesn’t mean it wasn’t the right thing to do, it IS but as usual the right thing is generally the smart thing and this was the smartest thing anyone in this administration has done in a while.

This story may continue, but in terms of its negative impact there will be little if any on Hillary Clinton from this point on.

Simply amazing.

Update: Stacy Smithy gets it:

Why am I not a Presidential candidate? Because if I was Mitt, I’d be all: “I’d like to congratulate the President on his choice of Secretary of State. After the better part of four years, somebody in the Administration finally took responsibility the way leaders do, on one of those hopefully rare occasions when it involves confessing a shortcoming. In this case, one that involved the butchery of four Americans. Hopefully this President isn’t too old to learn something from all this. Better leaders plan so as to minimize these sorts of tragedies. Lesser men play the Casablanca card and locate a usual suspects for a round-up. How is Nakoula doing these days, Mr. President?”

Update 2: On Morning Joe Hillary Clinton compared to JFK. Think about it, in under 12 hours Hillary goes from: “The person responsible for a disaster” to JFK saying “defeat is an orphan”.

Today is day one of campaign 2016.

Update 3: Captain Ed Morrissey (he will always be Captain Ed to me) NAILS it:

It’s a jaw-dropping display of a leadership vacuum, which Hillary ended up having to fill herself. This is exactly what Hillary warned voters about in 2008. The contrast between her moment of leadership in this crisis and Obama’s lack of leadership since the very beginning of it will not help Obama make the case for another four years of buck-passing at the top, not even when Obama showed leadership on the Nicki Minaj-Mariah Carey feud.

And Stacy McCain spots an oversight on my part:

Corrected and noted.

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