I interviewed state chairman Matt Borges on Wednesday

there are a ton of State Party chairmen from all over the country here and I have no idea why they aren’t being constantly interviewed.


Olimometer 2.52

Maybe the MSM won’t give you interviews with your state party chairman but DaTechguy will, and all I ask in return is a paltry $305 a week to give you the interviews you won’t see on TV.

What could be fairer than that?


I haven’t dived deeply into polls much lately because frankly there has been no point, Mitt Romney has this race and baring the “Live Boy Dead girl” scenario it’s not changing. (actually considering Romany’s rep it wouldn’t take a dead girl, a live girl would shatter his clean image completely)

But with one week to go the last gasp effort to rally the MSNBC troops took place today on Morning Joe as they touted the Quinnipiac/CBS?NYT polls Saying Obama is up 5 in Ohio with a week to go.

What really got me was their claim that the Quinnipiac poll was the “most accurate” and again playing the “poll denier” card. I’ve personally found their numbers the least believable and while they were talking about the fights in other states as an alternative to Ohio for Romney I looked up the internals of this Ohio/VA/Florida poll and found this:

After talking about how reliable Quinnipiac is, for 15 minutes and while I was tweeting out the D+8 samples in all of these states D+7 in Florida, they suddenly pivoted as Mark Halperin brought up the D+8 sample and people asked how can this be the case if Mitt is up by huge margins among independents in this poll?

At this time they made the case that the split in the sample defines the electorate while I argue that the accurate of the poll is based on how the splits match the electorate.

Now Polls have limitation based on the response rate and the various methods of getting people to answer but the actual registration and demographics of a state are a reality, they may change over time but they are what they are no matter what but of a sample is used.

In the 7 AM Hour more of the same and in the 8 AM hour they repeated this nonsense. This isn’t a poll, this is a last gasp before Media Credibility day arrives and it becomes impossible to deny what already exists.

That the Morning Joe team is spending a show trying to sell the accuracy of a D+8 poll in Ohio & VA & +7 in Fla to their far left base speaks volumes, here is what it says to me:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

When you are reduced to Chuck Todd arguing body language in private conversations that’s pretty bad, by contrast you have Romney people canvasing during the damn storm.

Folks, there is going to be a turnout effort in Ohio like you’ve never seen. George Cullen has been canvassing door-to-door for the past five weeks. He usually hits about 50 doors a day, but only got 25 under the storm conditions yesterday. He’s a West Point graduate who served six years in the Army, and he says, “The conservatives are very energized.”

Yeah this is a D+8 state SURE! It will be fun to watch these guys next Wednesday.

Update: Just called Robert Stacy McCain on the ground in Ohio and asked about the “Body Language” stuff from Chuck Todd: “It’s crazy” He spoke to Kevin Madden on Sunday one of the top guys in the Romney Campaign after rally. He seemed calm and laid back. He hasn’t seen any of this scary “Body Language” from the Romney folks.

They are still working hard, they have not slacked off nor would anyone expect them to but if our friends on the left want to tell themselves this, as the folks in the south say “Bless their Hearts”.

Update 2: Ed Morrissey elaborates:

In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election. If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead. However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday. In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.

I guess that explains why we didn’t see Ed on the show today. I suspect that message wouldn’t have been all that welcome.

Update 3: Instalanche and Michael Graham who you might recall was the owner of the site “Anybody But Mitt” says what is coming:

I believe we’re on the verge of a solid Romney win for two reasons. One is the objective evidence. The other is the ugly desperation of the Obama campaign in its final days.

and he raises a very important point I never thought of:

The president, on the other hand, has peaked at 47 percent. The Battleground Poll model shows Obama losing 52 percent to 47 percent. Rasmussen daily tracking has Obama losing 49 percent to 47 percent. Pew has him tied: 47 percent to 47 percent. But more important, all the polls show Obama sliding or stuck. None show any upward movement.

Obama supporters are quick to tell you “the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.” Two things: a) that’s what candidates who are behind always say; b) this is election day.

Next Wednesday is going to be fun.

Update 4: Stacy who I so rudely woke up in the first update asks an obvious question:

You might think some reporter at the New York Times, which co-sponsored this poll, would think it worth his while to interview the people at Quinnipiac and ask where they’re getting these weird over-samples of Democrats. What is causing this? How is it that Republicans report greater voting enthusiasm by such large margins, and yet are underrepresented in the poll’s sample? It makes no sense.

I’d love to hear the answer.

BTW PPP poll now being touted, Iowa Sample is D+5 Wisconsin D+4

There are two polls I checked out before leaving the hotel today, both had bad news for the GOP but beyond that there is nothing else in common.

One is the WBUR poll on the Brown Warren Race. The WBUR poll shows a big swing toward Warren, now up by 5.

I’ve looked at the internals of the WBUR poll and as always they are spot on.

Although I want Scott Brown to win, this poll pleases me, Brown has made some big mistakes in the air war (more on that tomorrow) and hopefully this poll will cause him to pivot to a better strategy, the one that gave him the lead in the first place.

You can’t correct a problem unless you know it’s there, this poll informs the Brown campaign of a problem and thus is useful

I like that!

While I like the WBUR poll I absolutely LOVE the Time Magazine poll in Ohio showing Obama up 5.

You might ask: “DaTechGuy have you gone roadtrip crazy? Why would you love a poll showing Romney losing Ohio?”

Simple I looked at the internals of this poll. Unlike most polls the partisan splits are not as obvious, you have to do some math but it’s really quite simple.

They polled 783 people in the unweighed sample 290 Democrats, 220 Republicans and 224 independent. That comes out to a sample that is Dem 37.0% GOP 28.0 and 28.6 Ind That’s D+9

With 742 total respondents you have 273 Dems, 206 GOP and 215 independents that’s a split of 36.7% dems, 27.7% GOP and 28.9 Ind. Again a D+9 split

As Ohio is a +1 GOP state on registration this indicates the MSM has gone back to the “spin the polls” business to keep their people on the registration.

I’m delighted by this, it means the Obama campaign and the MSM has decided there is no way to reverse these numbers short of simple propaganda, this means they will not change their strategy and this race is finished.

Either that or the left is in denial, that’s exactly where I want them to be.

Closing note. In the studio on Morning Joe, Joe & Mika and the Panel are all hanging their hats on the Time Magazine poll, but Chuck Todd in Ohio hedged. Joe & Mika are opinion folk, they can afford to take a side, but Chuck Todd is the chief WH guy, he can’t look a fool

Mitt Romney is going to win this election and it’s not going to be close.

…with this statement concerning their just released polls:

In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats — 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats. . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

Amazing how the samples matter once Romney’s numbers improved in Ohio, I wonder where they buy their Cheetos?

Meanwhile in VA the previous D+4 sample becomes an R+1 samples and guess what? Romney now has a +1 pt lead! Change the sample and you change the results. How about that!

“But DaTechGuy” you say, “That party identification is psychological, people call themselves more Republican because the GOP is doing better and Romney is doing better.”

Well if that’s the case then we should see change in Florida. While there seems to be universal agreement that the Debate Moved numbers for Romney Florida remains unchanged, how can that be when other Florida Polls have moved…

…what a coincidence, the D vs R sample hasn’t moved and PRESTO the Obama Romney gap doesn’t move, even when the entire universe concludes Obama is in free fall.

Funny how that works isn’t it?

Mind you Florida & VA are the same states the Suffolk decided not to poll anymore because Romney had it cold.

Why do I have a sneaking suspicion that after the next debate (or perhaps after tonight’s VP debate) the party samples will move and the numbers will improve for the Obama campaign?

If people don’t realize they are being played it’s only because they don’t want to know it.

Update: take a look at the party splits vs the poll results from CBS

It’s worth noting that there is no measure of if people “lean” amazing how the results seem to match the samples within a point or two.

Yesterday I saw a poll out of New Hampshire, that was so unbelievable no incredible in its results that I thought it impossible that a TV station or a college would report it.

With one month remaining before the November 6 election, Barack Obama has opened up a statistically significant lead over Mitt Romney in the battleground state of New Hampshire. In the most recent Granite State Poll, 52% of likely New Hampshire voters plan to vote for Obama, 37% say they will support Romney,

There were so incredible that WMUR the TV station that commissioned the poll led their analysis thus:

The latest WMUR Granite State Poll is either wildly off or we will look back five weeks from now on Election Day and point to this date as the moment we knew Mitt Romney lost New Hampshire.

They are hedging on their own poll. My first thought was bad party splits, I was rather shocked to see an equal party metric in this poll. As this so greatly contradicts what I’ve seen on the ground I continued to look at the numbers and found these figures on the 2008 election within the sample:

215 McCain Palin Voters
309 Obama Biden Voters
14 Other
38 Did not vote 2008

That totals up to 576 people in the sample. How does that split? Here is the math

215/576 = 37.3% McCain Palin
309/576 = 53.6% Obama Biden
14/576 = 2.4% Other
38/576 = 6.5% Did not vote

Difference 53.6- 37.3= 16.3

So you have a sample with a bias of 16.3 points in terms of 2008 voters that is now +15, that would indicate a slight loss of support, but strangely enough they didn’t include a question on their votes in 2010. Just to remind you here is what happened in the state house that year:

Maybe it’s just me but I think this poll might be a tad more informative if it included how the respondents voted in 2010

It’s worth noting that a previous poll from the same group in Aug had a much different sample

McCain Palin 220/529 = 41.5
Obama Biden 259/529= 48.9%
Other 21/529 = 3.9%
Did not vote 29/529= 5.4%

Do you see the magic trick, you play with a sample and suddenly you have a trend. As I predicted after the booing God debacle:

Do not be surprised if there is a negative bounce from this convention or a poll released with a Dem +6-12 in order to hide just how bad things are.

And that’s what we’ve seen, polls so skewed that we have a convention bounce supposedly from a Clinton Speech that nobody watched because it was opposite a football game.

But even such BS can’t go on for long, particularly when people are finally catching on with the poll manipulation.

So what is the Liberal media et/al to do?

Well if it’s harder to see Romney behind everywhere put out a national poll that is close (+3 Obama with a +8 Obama 2008 sample & +6 D sample) to show our bona fides then as it’s harder to sell Romney behind everywhere in Florida suddenly usa a D+2 sample instead of the +9, in Virgina go D+5 instead of D + ungodly while in Ohio the state we’ve been saying Romney HAS to win we show Romney down 11 with a sample that is 50% dem and 39% +11.D and violá we have exactly what we need to be credible:

A more “balanced” poll showing a slight Romney trend without losing the “Mitt in Trouble” narrative.

The best part of it for the MSM? The media can by playing the sample game can generate the trend they want and will do so as long as they believe they can affect the results. The moment they decide it can’t be pulled off will be the dawn of Media Credibility day when the mission changes as it did the day before the 2010 elections:

So instead their new mission is to be perceived as actually reporting news rather than spinning it. Thus comes media credibility day, the day the press decides to act like actual reporters instead of liberal advocates, it will last long enough for them to claim that they called the election correctly…

And the moment the election is over

…then it will be back to the MSM that we all know and…well that we all know.

That will be the tell.

Update: Ann Althouse got there before me:

The MSM or your own eyes?

OK, if you believe the polls, Mitt Romney’s 10 points behind in Ohio. But then there are those people — THOUSANDS of people — who stood in line in the rain to get in to see Mitt this afternoon in downtown Toledo:

OK so it’s Stacy McCain’s eyes but you get the point:

Because people in losing campaigns ALWAYS generate giant lines to see candidates who have tanked in your state and hear them speak:

“The world need the example of America”
That’s something that’s been missing for a while.

I would remind you I’ve seen the same kind of crowds in New Hampshire. But the MSM knows better after all winning campaigns ALWAYS give out free phones to get people to vote for them:

And that Libya stuff as reminded by this video at Ace of Spades HQ our Ambassador likely had it coming:

Meanwhile Stacy McCain still residing in realville writes in his American Spectator piece about the doom & gloomers making an important point:

It is easy for cynical pundits and dyspeptic critics to minimize what this election means. Whatever the results on November 6, the TV talking heads will still have their network sinecures on November 7. David Brooks won’t forfeit any book contracts and Peggy Noonan won’t lose any lecture fees, just because Obama wins the election. Such members of the GOP’s professional intelligentsia have never cast their lot with the Tea Party, nor have they shown any empathy for the grassroots activists who are manning phone banks and distributing yard signs, the volunteers motivated by a sincere belief that defeating Obama is essential to the preservation of the American Republic.

They don’t need an Obama Phone they just need to be told how smart they are. As for the rest of us

Remarkable irony: Many of those conservative now working hardest to elect Mitt Romney are conservatives who spent the primary campaign supporting other candidates in an effort to prevent Romney’s nomination as the “It’s His Turn” choice of the party establishment. Meanwhile, the elite pundits who spent the primary season nitpicking every fault of Romney’s rivals are now the first to raise the white flag of surrender, abandoning hope in the candidate that they insisted was the only one in the GOP field with any realistic chance to win in November.

Our problem isn’t our candidate, it’s our media more interested in looking smart to the elites they hang with.

I’ve been very careful not to play that game (also not to sue anybody or to file any criminal complaint), leaving them with nothing else to do except recycle old smears. And my “much higher income”? Yeah, armagnac and decolletage!

What I am paid to do is cover the news. These distractions from Rauhauser aren’t going to stop me from earning my pay, and so I’m off to Ohio to cover the Romney-Ryan bus tour,

Robert Stacy McCain The Best Revenge Ohio Bound 9-24-12

A few days ago I got a call from Robert Stacy McCain asking me if I could join drive down to his undisclosed location (that he offered to disclose) pick him up and head for Ohio.

My situation did not allow it, so Stacy was able (with some effort apparently) to change Ali Akbar’s mind to join him for yet another trip to cover the Mitt Romney Bus Trip in Ohio.

Stacy has photos here and a piece in the Spectator here but this really isn’t so much about this particular trip nor the idea of Stacy & Ali on the road.

It’s about stuff like this:

NC Chairman Reince Priebus just held an impromptu press gaggle and said, “We’re going to outspend the DNC 10-to-1 for the next six weeks.” Asked about polls showing Romney-Ryan trailing in Ohio, Priebus said “we’re within a field goal and we’re going to crush [the Democrats] on the ground.”

I’m watching Morning Joe right now and I haven’t seen a word about this declaration by the chairman of the GOP. I don’t pretend to have been doing this long or having been trained in this business (BS CSC minor US History) but the blunt statement that: “We’re going to outspend the DNC 10-1 for six weeks” from the GOP chairman is what we call “News!”

Now the new Mitt Romney ad “No we can’t” is devastating

but although I can give informed opinion on it, ANYONE can see it and give opinion on it.

But today Chris Christie the Governor of NJ is going to be in NH trying to help Ovide Lamontagne put the corner office of a swing state back in the hands of the GOP and I intend to cover it.

It won’t be as long a drive as Ohio and I’ll still have a chance to drop my youngest off for his classes but there will be first hand photos and video from the scene.

This is the real strength of the new media, granted Stacy McCain is a Hybrid as a longtime reporter who uses new media as to some degree am I since I’ve had 50,000 watts of radio power to back me up but consider. This message that Mr. Priebus will be out to tens of thousands of people who will share it will tens of thousands more regardless of what the MSM tells you.

While Morning Joe insists Scott Brown is “desperate” William Jacobson informs you of Elizabeth Warren “missing” law license.

While the MSM doesn’t look toward NH (where the Democrat candidate for governor Maggie Hassan is careful to avoid the words “Barack Obama” & “Democrat” in her ads). I and other blogs such as Granite Grok will cover it.

This is what the new media does, this is what it is. If you go to a political event, shoot video and ask questions you are doing what media was designed to do and with the Internet, facebook, twitter et/al if you cover something significant or even small, you have the chance to fill the void that the MSM leaves when it doesn’t suit their agendas.

There is no substitute for being there. Be there make the difference and watch the MSM howl!

You know that poll that shows Obama up by 5.

In all the talk and the gushing you don’t see much on the internals, because if you look at them you see several interesting things:

First lets look at gender, as you know Obama is up with women and down with men, so what was the sample of this poll?

Hold on a second. it’s axiomatic that Obama is polling better with women than men, We are running a polls with an 8 point gap in gender and calling it significant?

let’s look a little closer How about party affiliation?

Hmm a 4 pt split advantage to Democrats, how does that square with the actual party split in the state? I’m not a big fan of Wikipedia but it is the quickest source I could find it shows the demographic split as in Ohio as GOP+1

So in a state that has a 1 pt GOP advantage PPP and the MSM is touting a poll with a 4 pt Dem Skew, a five point difference and lo and behold, what happens? Obama is up 5.

But DaTechGuy, you say. “what about the ideological split, you didn’t mention that, that split favors conservatives.”

I’m glad you brought that up, lets take a look at the self identified conservative/liberal split of the respondents:

Now that’s kind of odd isn’t it? this crosstab suggest that you have a 42% of the people in the poll self identifying themselves as conservative in a poll that is 37% Republican, yet only 28% call themselves liberal? Are we to believe that ALL of republicans are Conservatives with some spill over to the middle or is it more likely that our liberal friends, like their fellows in the media don’t see their own biases and believe themselves moderate?

But OK that’s a supposition, not a fact so if this poll is to be believed Romney is polling 3 pts above his conservative base yet obama is polling 22 pts above his liberal one.

Is there anyone ANYONE stupid enough to believe that? Are you?

This is the poll the MSM is pushing. These figures are available to them just as they are to me, why is it that they are treating these Ohio numbers as Gospel? The answer is in my previous post today from Sarah Hoyt:

However, unless you are going to deny that Journolist ever existed, that respectable journalists engaged to elect Barack Obama despite his deep negatives by coordinating attacks on anyone who challenged him, you can’t say they don’t conspire on the propaganda front. In fact, that’s all they have.

And let’s not forget that we’ve seen interesting interpretations of Ohio polls before (O+9 vs Romney in Nov 2011 REALLY, the same Obama union leaders kept out of their state? during their referendum.)

The MSM isn’t reporting to inform you, they are spinning to demoralize you and to energize a base that was so inspired by Obama they couldn’t fill the stadium in NC they reserved.

Some concern tolls might fall for this nonsense, but I’m not for one second and neither should you.

Update: Sarah Rumpf shows the the official GOP release on the subject, but I still think the better argument is to look at the data the left is using because it doesn’t stand up to any scrutiny.

Update 2: AllahPundit notes a CNN poll getting a lot of press that is just as….interesting:

Speaking of which, number two: Romney trails overall by six points while leading among independents … by 14?

The only way to make those numbers make sense is if the sample of likely voters skews sharply Democratic, which seems improbable, and if the sample of independents here is minuscule. That wouldn’t be unusual for CNN, if so: Just like last week, it looks like they’re pressing hard to get self-identified indies to identify themselves as leaners one way or the other and then reserving the indie column for the few remaining “true independents.” With a small enough sample, Romney could theoretically lead O by 50 points among this group and still trail overall.

Let me point out one basic thing, if the electorate would produce the results they wanted you wouldn’t see such interesting sample gymnastics.

Newscaster: “This is largely as I predicted, except the silly party won…”

Eric Idle Monty Python’s flying circus 1969

Our friends in the media have come up with a million different excuses to explain why Mitt Romney, or Newt Gingrich or Herman Cain or Michelle Bachmann etc etc etc have no chance against Barack Obama.

While generating a lot of wind bold talk isn’t a sign of reality, actions are, and check out this action from Josh Kraushaar in National Journal:

“I am disappointed that Congressman Johnson supported President Obama’s free trade agenda this year. These agreements will ship even more of our jobs overseas,” Wilson told WTRF-TV.

Nothing odd there, after all one might expect Republican Challengers to be attacking sitting congressmen for backing the president…

…Except that Mr. Wilson is former Democratic congressman Charlie Wilson and the congressman he is attacking is sitting republican Rep Bill Johnson.

Run that through your head one more time, we’ve reached the point where we have democrats attacking Republicans for voting with a sitting Democratic president and this is in Ohio where supposedly the union referendum win proves that the Democrats are on the rise.

I’d say this is pretty big news, I’ll bet the MSM newshawks are all over it. Let’s see what ABC has to say about it:

Ok ABC didn’t find it newsworthy but they did report on Michelle Bachmann not wanting a US embassy in Iran as a gaffe.

Well perhaps NBC/MSNBC will cover it:

I guess they didn’t think it was as newsworthy as a NH state senator’s endorsement of Romney in New Hampshire.

That is a little more newsworthy with the primary day nearing but not as big in my mind…surely CNN would cover a breaking story like this one:

Nah, it’s nowhere near as newsworthy as Rick Santorum praying for Herman Cain in his hour of need.

At least CBS is bound to lead with it, after all WTRF  first reported the story and it is a CBS station:

Well there’s good news and bad news. The top story of the search WAS about former congressman Charlie Wilson of Ohio, the bad news was it’s a 4-year-old bit about how he’s not the same Charlie Wilson as in the movie.

Bottom line, a real national indicator of how the race for 2012 is looking in a key state doesn’t ring the chimes for any of the MSM outlets, even the ones whose affiliates report it.

Conservatives might have worries and headaches about the GOP field, but they have one intrinsic advantage, Barack Obama will not be at the top of it. The media can dance around and ignore this fact all they want but this will be the driver for the 2012 election from top to bottom.

The democratic Public Policy Polling outfit is breathlessly reporting “Obama up big in Ohio“:

One person who should be feeling particularly good about last night’s election results in Ohio is Barack Obama. On our weekend poll, which got the final result of Issue 2 correct to within a point, Obama led all of his Republican opponents in the state by margins ranging from 9-17 points. After a very tough year for Democrats in Ohio in 2010, things are looking up.

Oh really? Let’s dig a little deeper in the story and see what PPP considers looking up.

Obama continues to suffer from poor approval ratings in Ohio with only 41% of voters approving of him to 49% who disapprove.

Perhaps that might explain why Union Leaders kept him at arms length on the question 2 issue, because on Question 3 in Ohio concerning Obamacare he was crushed!

So I decided to check out the internals of the poll, and I noticed question 16. It was…interesting

Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.

Democrat ………………………………………….. 41%
Republican…………………………………………. 35%
Independent/Other………………………………… 24%

So let me get this straight. Obama’s approval rating is EXACTLY equal to the amount of democrats in a poll and I’m supposed to be worried? Moreover in a hotly contested republican primary I’m supposed to be shocked that supporters of one candidate are not enthusiastic about their current opponents?

If democrats can’t do better in a poll where they have a nearly 20% advantage in the sample size then I have only one thing to say

Ride Right Through them They’re Demoralized as hell!

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