I asked the question yesterday Have the Democrats learned to count?. Apparently the news from George Miller and Nancy Pelsoi is yes:

Miller told DeLauro that there were “more pro-life votes in the House than pro-choice” and that abortion-rights advocates had better acknowledge that reality.

In the end, Pelosi’s strategy paid off in a big win for her and President Barack Obama. After Rep. Bart Stupak’s (D-Mich.) amendment banning abortion funding was approved with 64 Democratic votes, Pelosi was able to push through the health care reform package on a virtually straight-line party vote, 220-215.

Even more significant is the very next paragraph:

Pelosi wasn’t the only one getting pressure on the amendment. As rumors spread that Republicans might vote “present” in order to scuttle the entire bill, even Cardinal Francis George, archbishop of Chicago and president of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, called Republican leader John Boehner to make sure the GOP didn’t play any games with the Stupak amendment, sources said.

One the democratic party once again become a place where a foe of Abortion can live comfortably within that party the Republicans are in trouble. If the party also becomes friendly on other Religious issues then all bets are off.

As a Catholic I’m am thrilled, as a Republican I am very worried, but in the end the Catholic Hat is more important. Politics is polities but good and evil is good and evil.

Some of us like to eat, sleep and spend time with their families but for those who have other interests there is so much news at NY-23 that it’s hard to keep up:

There were a lot of people who doubted the polls that showed Hoffman up, well Begala apparently doesn’t:

This first anniversary is really important. The tea party crowd hopes to use Palin’s endorsement in the NY-23 special election to send one of their own to Congress on the very first anniversary of President Obama winning the White House. And we can’t let that happen. The inmates have taken over the asylum, and are abandoning the Republican candidate in favor of the extreme conservative.

The Huffington Post is in a snit over Hoffman:

And then it has the web address of a blog called PlanetAlbany, linking to a blog called Draft Dede as a Democrat. Pretty damning stuff, right? Dede Scozzafava – Hoffman’s Republican opponent – is actually a Democrat! And the proof is right there in this blog that links to this other blog, by some Democrats so proud of Dede Scozzafava that they prefer to remain completely anonymous.

That’s how crafty they are.

MoveOn doesn’t doubt it either:

The Sarah Palin wing of the Republican Party could get a big boost if a far right, third party candidate wins a three-way House race in upstate New York. Election Day is Tuesday. Can you contribute to help Democrat Bill Owens pull out a victory?

Bill Owens finally gets his name mentioned, the left seems to be thinking of someone else, someone they are afraid of, Sarah Palin. They certainly seem to be afraid of her, they’re sure not afraid of Romney:

“I have chosen not to endorse the Republican in the 23,” Romney, R-Mass., said while campaigning for GOP gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell.

Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom provided a few more details regarding Romney’s thinking: “Mitt Romney is a Republican and he tends to support the Republican candidate in races and when he can’t because there are too many differences on the issues, he stays out of the race altogether and that’s the course he’s following in the New York special election. He doesn’t plan to make any endorsement at all.”

Ah Mitt Romney voting present again, where have I seen that before?

But Dede Shouldn’t worry she is getting some press and an interesting ad as well

Politico (where Mike Allen once called Palin’s endorsement a suicide mission) is OUTRAGED and calls it a “republican” dirty trick

The group’s presumed intent with the ad is to trick unsuspecting GOP voters into thinking Scozzafava is the choice of progressives so they will then support her Conservative party challenger, Doug Hoffman. Common Sense in America is spending about $150,000 on the ad buy, and it is up on broadcast and cable in all three media markets in the sprawling upstate New York district.

There are two problems with this argument; the first of course being how we have been told over and over that moderate candidates are favored in New York. If that is the case then this ad should be of great help to Dede. It couldn’t be that all that advice about being moderate wasn’t meant to help could it?

Ed Driscoll points out the second problem:

Also, the headline at Politico is titled, “Republican Dirty Tricks” — as the Rhetorican asks, why are Republicans being blamed for a group that wants to knock out the candidate in the race who’s a Republican?

After all politico says it is trying to “trick republicans” that wouldn’t seem to be the purpose of a Republican dirty trick.

And this report from the Campaign Spot seems to support that argument:

Two of the candidates for New York’s special election race are participating in a debate right now: Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava began a half-hour ago at SUNY Plattsburgh’s E. Glenn Giltz Auditorium. So far, judging from Tweeted updates, the discussion between the liberal Democrat and the liberal Republican has been (surprise!) full of agreement

The Other McCain and Hotair are disputing the question of “Why is Doug Hoffman ducking a debate” First Allahpundit at hotair:

I suspect the stated reason and the real reason are two different things, but whichever it is, this is lame. The only good reason to duck a debate is if you’re so far ahead of your opponent that the risk of showing up and stumbling into a bad answer is greater than the expected gain from showing up and doing well. That’s not the case with Hoffman; while Scozzafava may have faded, there’s no question that he and the Democrat, Bill Owens, are neck and neck.

And then Robert Stacy:

Hoffman’s spokesman Rob Ryan told me the Plattsburgh NPR debate was “the perfect venue for Scozzafava and Owens to debate who’s more liberal.” And if Hoffman is “ducking” debates, how come he’s appearing in a TV debate today in Syracuse?

Republican Dede Scozzafava, Democrat Bill Owens, and Conservative Party Candidate Doug Hoffman will all take part in a debate at the NewsChannel 9 studios Thursday night at 7pm on NewsChannel 9.

That’s why I’m leaving this morning for Syracuse. It would help if some people would at least learn to make a phone call or two before jumping to the unwarranted conclusion that the liberal MSM spin is always true.

Always trust the boots on the ground, speaking of boots he is heading back up and wants company:

If you’re a conservative student who has been wondering what you can do to make a difference, the Hoffman campaign needs you. Maybe your Mom and Dad are conservatives who are fed up with RINO sellouts in the GOP establishment, and they’ll help pay your way to upstate New York.

This is the last weekend before Election Day Nov. 3, and there’s lots of work to do. All you have to do is get up there and contact the Hoffman campaign, and you’ll be in the middle of the biggest election of the year.

If my son wasn’t in high school I’d love to get him over there.

Meanwhile Dede’s best chance is stuff like this:

I have known Assemblywomen Scozzafava for the 11 years I have served as village trustee and now as Mayor. Not once have I considered Assemblywomen Scozzafava a career politician. She has spent countless hours fight for our residents of Northern New York, first as Mayor of Gouverneur, and asNew York State Assemblywomen. As New York State Assemblywomen she has provide our residents with exceptional services. She has always been there to assist the Village of West Carthage with any issues at the state or local level. I question the amount and quality of services our residents and local communities will receive if either of the others were elected. They don’t even feel it is necessary to debate or answer questions on local issues before we vote.

All politics is local and if she has built up a good local rep then she has a chance, but does she actually have that rep? I suspect if she did she wouldn’t be in last place right now.

Michael Barone who has forgotten more about politics then I’ll ever know has this to say about the race:

The situation in New York 23 is simply bizarre. Local Republican leaders nominated an assemblywoman who has been endorsed by the ACORN-allied Working Families Party and who backs the unions’ card check bill. One of the Republicans passed over was nominated by the Conservative Party and has picked up endorsements from Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty. He has raised money on the Internet and from the anti-tax Club for Growth. He’s now leading in two polls commissioned by his supporters.

All of which highlights, in exaggerated form, the distrust of tea party protesters for Republican insiders and could result in a plurality for the Democrat. As William Galston points out in his New Republic blog, during Obama’s presidency voters have been growing more conservative but remain disdainful of Republicans.

Great writers can sum up complex issues in a few sentences. Michael Barone is a great writer.

Anyway do you want to know how things are actually going? The National Review has the clues. Clue one:

A slew of old guard conservative names at the National Conservative Campaign Fund are endorsing Doug Hoffman in New York’s special House election. Among the bigger names: Ed Meese, David Keene, Alfred Regnery, Brent Bozell, Richard Viguerie, Tony Perkins, and Ken Blackwell.

Big Batch of conservatives endorsing following the lead.

Clue two: Al D’Amato:

“On NY1 tonight, former New York Senator Al D’Amato said he is considering endorsing Hoffman for Congress in NY-23.”

Last rats jumping off the sinking ship? Well maybe not the last because of Clue 3:

The NRCC recently aired a web ad that takes on Hoffman’s stances on civil unions, bailouts, and his residency in NY-23. (Watch it here.) As Guy writes: “’Doug Hoffman: Running from himself’ is the NRCC ad’s tagline. Pitiful.”

That sounds bad but the key line is at the end:

In the meantime, before Election Day, don’t expect the NRCC to pummel Hoffman. They may have published this web ad, but with Scozzafava dropping in the polls, a source tells us that the NRCC will try to avoid clashing with Hoffman.

They know how to count and must have gotten one fundraising rejection too many.

No matter how it turns out it won’t be boring. How will it turn out? We will know for sure in 5 days.

Vote Hoffman!

…the way this race is playing out and the excitement therein is just awesome to any political junkie. The pols, the counter pols, the endorsements, the fights, it’s more thrilling to us political guys than Hillary swank nude is to a six year old boy no matter what Daniel Kalder says.

It is really something to see (I’m talking about the political race). If you spend your time on the sites, watching Fox and MSNBC screaming at one and cheering the other (doesn’t matter which one) you know it doesn’t get much better than this.

Oh and Vote Hoffman.

…on the morning shows particularly on ABC they were talking about heathcare momentum and how the GOP is being hurt by not signing on etc etc etc. So lets one more time say the basic truths concerning the heathcare bill.

The Democrats have a large majority in the House and a 20 vote majority in the Senate. The full 60 votes.

They can any time they want pass any heathcare plan they want to pass and can laugh at the republicans for opposing it.

If the democrats thought the health care plans were either good in terms of results or good in terms of the politics they would do this. Tip O’Neil never worried about the republican minority when he was pushing bills.

and now the bottom line:

The reason democrats are not passing a bill on their own is because they KNOW it is garbage that rewards their supporters. They are unwilling to pass it when they have to take 100% of the responsibility for the result

This is simple fact. It is not debatable. It can’t be spun. These people are pols and they know how to count. If Obamacare was a winner, if the 9/12 movement were just a few thousand Glenn Beck fan they would simply go on ahead. As Robert Stacy quoted:

Reality is that which doesn’t go away when you stop believing in it.

This is reality and no media reporting, no White House spin and a million bloggers calling people racists are not going to change these facts. As long as the republicans keep their nerve and refuse to give the democrats cover then this garbage will not pass.