The Nation’s Top Two Problems per Gallup over the last 10 years

There are a lot of ways you can grade the 1st year of the Trump presidency USA today ran a piece giving him grades from A+ to F, but for my money the best way to see how the public grades this presidency is not a poll concerning this president’s approval but chart above showing Gallup’s polling of the nation’s top two problems over the least decade.

As you can see from these numbers over the last ten years the economy has been the #1 or #2 issue in the country every single year.

Not anymore.

According to Gallup after one year of Trump in the White House not only the Economy dropped to sixth (Jobs is 7th) but according to them you have to go back to 1999 to find a time when less people mentioned the economy as the country’s #1 problem.

And this is BEFORE the full effect of the Trump tax cuts that not a single democrat in either house voted for takes effect.

There are some people who think the GOP in general and Trump in particular are in trouble come November 2018.

After looking at those numbers I don’t.


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Finally might I suggest my book  Hail Mary the Perfect Protestant (and Catholic) Prayer makes an excellent Gift.

Pseudolus: [to Hysterium] Calm yourself down! I’ll tell you when it’s time to panic!
Miles Gloriosus: I smell mischief here!
Pseudolus:  It’s time.

A Funny Thing Happened on the way to the Forum 1966

 

If Don Surber smokes he’s lighting a cigar right now because here is Nate silver site this morning

time to panic

It’s one thing for a guy like me or Glenn or Don Surber or Even Rush Limbaugh to tell Democrats that they are in trouble it’s another thing to be told this by Nate silver the day after the Democrat convention and a week of the MSM lionizing all they did and said.

If you thought you saw some low tactics before given the combination of Clinton & Obama Panic you ain’t seen nothing yet. How Donald Trump handles will make all the difference.

Closing thought, Fyi to Dr. Jill Stein be aware that as a clear and present threat to their power the same anvil aimed at Trump by Clinton/Obama/DNC is heading for you too.

Update: Instalanche thanks Glenn, I see Nate is already revising and viola Hillary is up 51.7 – 48.2 but consider that not only has Nate underreported Trump in the past this still means that Hillary’s post election bump, isn’t.

BTW we have a series of six new writers who will be trying out here over the next six weeks. They are Tech Knight, Christopher Harper, Rh/NG36B , Ellen Kolb, JD Rucker Jon Fournier Each will be writing a piece a week here for six weeks and the ones who draw the most hits (both in views and via DaTipJar) will be staying so give them a peek and help decide who joins our existing Magnificent seven writers.

Update 2: Meet the MSM’s New favorite Rookie poll

Unexpectedly that is.


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Pseudolus: [to Hysterium] Calm yourself down! I’ll tell you when it’s time to panic!
Miles Gloriosus: I smell mischief here!
Pseudolus:  It’s time.

A Funny Thing Happened on the way to the Forum 1966

 

Given how far off the polls were in Kentucky it might seem odd to talk about the importance of  poll, particularly this far out from election day but as I looked at the internals of the Quinnipiac poll which tells us that Cruz, Christie Carson and Rubio all beat Hillary head to head from anywhere from 3-10 pts and found there were  numbers that you need to know when it comes to this poll.

34-32

That is the ratio of Democrats to republicans in this poll.  That’s a two point advantage for democrats.  That matters because according to gallop the spread is actually a 4 point democrat advantage.  This could mean one of two things:

 Republicans were over sampled which means the polls are slightly closer that they appear

The Gap between republicans and democrats is closing.

If it’s the first then it means that other than Ben Carson Hillary is actually within the margin or error on Rubio, Cruz and Christie which is still not a good thing but it doesn’t mean that it’s time for Democrats to panic.

If it’s the 2nd, then it’s time for the Democrats to panic

While that set of numbers might be a source of general panic for democrats there is a 2nd specific set up numbers  concerning a specific candidate that should bother them very much.

73-19

That is the split of the Black Vote if the candidates for President are Hillary Clinton for the Democrats (73) and Ben Carson for republicans (19)

Now by any normal measure winning a group by a 54% margin would make you feel pretty good, but for Democrats this is a disaster.

The days when a Democrat can win the presidency with only 73% of the black vote is long gone and as for a republican winning 19% of the black vote, you have to go back to Nixon in 1960 (32%) to see any number near that 19% and that year Nixon only won 49 of the White vote.

Now I’m a Ted Cruz guy but I’m telling you right now Democrats are terrified of Ben Carson and will do all they can to destroy him because if he is the nominee or even on the ticket you can’t guarantee the numbers in the black community that the left needs to win.

If I was the Democrats, I’d be scared, very scared.

Exit question, picture a Carson/Cruz or a Cruz/Carson ticket.  If you are a local Democrat machine, do you risk providing transportation to black and hispanic voters who might inside the booth decide to vote their race rather than their party?

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I know you can get the MSM for nothing, but that’s pretty much what most of them are worth.

Fool me once and you’ve fooled me, fool me twice and you’ve fooled me two times, the third time would make it three times.

Captain Obvious (for Hotels.com)

The Washington Post makes an amazing discovery today:

Proud to be an American? You’re probably not a true liberal.

That’s not really an amazing statement per se, what’s amazing is the Washington Post actually ran with it.

Michelle Obama took some heat in 2008 for saying that, “for the first time in my adult life I am proud of my country…

As it turns out, that sentiment isn’t all that unusual on the far left of American politics. According to a new Pew Research Center study, only 40 percent of consistently liberal Americans say they often feel proud to be Americans.

The other 60 percent say that doesn’t describe them.

This amazing flash of realization does prove on thing,  Given half a century or so even the liberal media can notice something that’s staring them in the face.

I daresay that by my 100th birthday the NYT might even figure out that people under investigation don’t destroy hard drives when the evidence on them is exculpatory.

Sheriff of Nottingham: We’ll reorganize the entire lottery on a larger scale. I want hundreds more tokens made, my men-at-arms will help you sell them. Everyone will be force to buy at least one token. no one is to refuse.

The Adventures of Robin Hood The Lottery 1958

Indo Montoya:  You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

The Princess Bride 1987

I spotted this piece out of Gallup that got me laughing:

Although the Obama administration is boasting higher-than-expected enrollment for the Affordable Care Act, Americans’ attitudes toward the healthcare law have changed only marginally since the open enrollment period ended for 2014. A steady 43% of Americans approve of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, also known as “Obamacare,” while a majority continue to disapprove of it, roughly where sentiment was before the enrollment window officially closed on March 31.

It wasn’t in fact the piece or the statement that Obamacare remains unpopular it was the title of the piece:

Despite Enrollment Success, Healthcare Law Still Unpopular

Enrollment success?

This administration had years to gear up for Obamacare, they had the full power of the government behind them and a law that penalized people if they failed to sign up for their program and despite all this they managed to make their goal on the very last day of the deadline (and as time goes on the numbers seem more and more iffy).

Cripes thanks to Obamacare you have people driving to Mexico for healthcare:

Californians unhappy with their forced Obamacare related healthcare packages are finding a cheaper and more efficient way to see a doctor — high tail it to Mexico.

The growing trend among Californians finds citizens driving into Mexican towns like Tijuana, and seeing a doctor for as little as $15 out of pocket. While the Obama administration remains puzzled why so few Latinos are signing up for health insurance, the answer can be found just a few short miles away from the border.

As I’ve said before the only success that Obamacare can claim is supposedly selling tickets on the Titanic.

I’ll believe Obamacare is a success when vulnerable senators start running on it.

 

 

 

I generally don’t pay a lot of attention to the KOS SEIU poll because…well it’s the Kos SEIU poll but I noticed the Breitbart link and on a whim checked it out.

That Romney has a +4 lead in a poll that has a +3 democrat sample is bad.

That 56% call wrong track in a +3 democrat sample is worse.

But the most devastating number is right here

Take a look at that number Barack Obama in a KOS/SEIU poll is only drawing 85% of the black vote! Even if he gets all the undecided it only rises to 88%.

This has to be a shock to the left, but if you have been reading this site it is simply the logical conclusion to events.

In August of last year I described this as the Barber Shop election for the black community:

I’m sure that if I went back to Ga-4 and asked the overwhelmingly black community there: “Do you support the president?” I’d be told YES overwhelmingly. If my friend George, a black minister in that same community asked that question I suspect he would get a more nuanced response.

And in January I noted the Obama campaign found the need to reach out to black voters

The rumors of dissatisfaction of the black community with president Obama are not rumors but fact and even the prudent estimates I have given overstates his popularity among African-Americans requiring immediate action to motivate the uninspired and pressure the wavering to make sure Black turnout doesn’t drop.

And my numbers were based on him drawing 93% of the Black vote:

In May I noted the effect of Gay Marriage on the race a Black community where the Black church makes such a difference:

Forget the absurdity that a vote based on race to begin with and imagine you are a Black voter disgusted with the president’s record but getting pressure over racial solidarity. The Gay Marriage suddenly makes staying home a matter of sticking with your Pastor and your God.

In June I noted the polls in NC that meant huge trouble:

One out of five Black Americans in a state where the president won 95% of the Black vote the last time around have explicitly told strangers they will not support the first black president for re-election and they have expressed that decision in a public poll..

It is that public nature that makes all the difference because it reinforces what other Black Americans may be thinking in other states but are hesitant to say aloud.

It is a paradigm shift and if it repeats itself beyond North Carolina then this election over.

and in July we talked about the Romney applause line at the NAACP event that got little or no press:

The media has to dodge this issue because it has the potential to create the same split between leadership and rank and file that we have seen in Unions and mainstream coverage of that applause would shatter that narrative.

But the question is did the Black Media duck it? An answer came in September:

My friends the Democrat party and their progressive coalition have become anti God, anti Bible, anti church anti family, anti marriage, and anti-life. They have turned their backs on Christians, it’s time for us to turn our backs on them.

While I had Bishop Jackson on my show the MSM ignored him but they can’t ignore this KOS poll.

It is a bad thing for the Democrats if the percentage of Blacks in the total electorate drops, it’s a worse thing for Democrats if the Party’s share of the black vote drops below 90%. If you have an election where both total black electorate drops AND President Obama’s share of the Black vote drops from 95% to below 90% that means only one thing:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

Exit question: In my opinion this is a huge story, why didn’t the MSM cover it? Did they simply miss it or did they deliberately ignore it?

Update: Instalanche, thanks Glenn FYI I will be having another 1 hour DaTechGuy on DaRadio special tomorrow at 1 p.m. on WCRN AM 830 sponsored by DuVarney & Co Jewelers since 1854 where we will discuss this and the movie Fear of a Black Republican. Listen live at wcrnradio.com

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See you then

Many years ago there were only the major papers and the three big networks, so when a poll like the current CBS/NYT Quinnipiac poll that Morning Joe is reporting as the doom of the Romney Campaign would never be questioned. Instead you would only see these results:

but those days are gone and the new media is alive so while the Morning Joe table continues to do their victory dance I took a look at these polls from Florida, Ohio & Pennsylvania and on the very last line of the very last page Found the following:

So with a sample that is D+9 in Florida, Barack Obama has a +9 lead on Mitt Romney! In Ohio with a D+9 Sample Obama has a +10 Lead and in Pennsylvania with a D+11 sample he has +12 lead.

Now I have absolutely no trouble believing these states are close nor to I disagree that Mitt Romney should be more aggressive but come ON guys?

By an odd coincidence the last time this poll came out Hugh Hewett questioned Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Polls and asked him about this (emphasis mine):

Hugh Hewett: But I don’t know how that goes to the issue, Peter, so help me. I’m not being argumentative, I really want to know. Why would guys run a poll with nine percent more Democrats than Republicans when that percentage advantage, I mean, if you’re trying to tell people how the state is going to go, I don’t think this is particularly helpful, because you’ve oversampled Democrats, right?

Peter Brown: But we didn’t set out to oversample Democrats. We did our normal, random digit dial way of calling people. And there were, these are likely voters. They had to pass a screen. Because it’s a presidential year, it’s not a particularly heavy screen.

HH: And so if, in fact, you had gotten a hundred Democrats out of a hundred respondents that answered, would you think that poll was reliable?

PB: Probably not at 100 out of 100.

HH: Okay, so if it was 75 out of 100…

PB: Well, I mean…

HH: I mean, when does it become unreliable? You know you’ve just put your foot on the slope, so I’m going to push you down it. When does it become unreliable?

PB: Like the Supreme Court and pornography, you know it when you see it.

HH: Well, a lot of us look at a nine point advantage in Florida, and we say we know that to be the polling equivalent of pornography. Why am I wrong?

PB: Because what we found when we made the actual calls is this kind of party ID.

HH: Do you expect Democrats, this is a different question, do you, Peter Brown, expect Democrats to have a nine point registration advantage when the polls close on November 6th in Florida?

PB: Well, first, you don’t mean registration.

HH: I mean, yeah, turnout.

PB: Do I think…I think it is probably unlikely.

Mind you this is the guy who actually does the poll saying this

Let me close with this bit from the American Spectator and an exchange between Ben Bradlee and Ed Rollins from 2004

A few weeks later, the Washington Post ran a story that confirmed Rollins’ initial beliefs. The Post confessed that… well… oops… it had made a mistake with those California polling numbers. Shortly afterward came the November election, with California once again giving Reagan a more than 16 point victory. In fact, Reagan carried 49 states, winning the greatest landslide victory in presidential history while losing Minnesota in — yes — a close race. Mondale had 49.72% to Reagan’s 49.54%, a difference of .18% that might have been changed by all that money that went into California. Making Reagan the first president in history to win all fifty states.

After the [2004] election, Ed Rollins ran into the Washington Post’s blunt-speaking editor Ben Bradlee and “harassed” Bradlee “about his paper’s lousy polling methodology.”

Bradlee’s “unrepentant” response?

“Tough sh…t, Rollins, I’m glad it cost you plenty. It’s my in-kind contribution to the Mondale campaign.”

Got that?

Now that election wasn’t close, this election will be a lot closer. Is this an in-kind contribution for The One? You tell me.

This is why the MSM will always hate the New Media, in Ben Bradlee’s day they would never be called on this. Today we will call them on it every single day.

Update: I can’t believe I forgot to check the numbers with independents but it’s make this poll even MORE of a joke:

Here is the split among independents in Florida according to the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll

In Ohio


They don’t provide figures in Pa which I found strange but lets ask the obvious question

How do you reconcile +9 point Obama leads if Romney leads with BOTH independents & Republicans? And do you REALLY believe that Obama is doing better among democrats than Romney is among republicans by enough to make up for that difference. Do you REALLY?

John Nolte puts it best:

Florida:

In 2004 the vote was R+4.
In 2008 the vote was D+3
CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9.

Ohio:
In 2004 the vote was R+5
In 2008 the vote was D+8
CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9

Pennsylvania:

In 2010 the vote was D+3
In 2008 the vote was D+7
CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9.

Again, why won’t the media report the dramatic news that Democrats are expected to turnout in record numbers against Republicans?

Because the media doesn’t believe it.

This isn’t reporting, this is propaganda and frankly after Romney wins should be treated as an in-kind contribution to the DNC, these are also not the tactics of a side that is winning.

Update 2:
Stacy McCain is less diplomatic than me

journalism is also my profession, and the fact that I’m pursuing it on a blog doesn’t change my astonishment at the utter shamelessness of these people. As usual this morning, I’ve been watching MSNBC and I think this would be an accurate headline:

QUINNIPIAC POLL SHOWS OBAMA
LEADING BY 10 POINTS IN OHIO;
OBJECTIVE JOURNALIST CHUCK TODD
‘SPORTING A WOODY’ ON LIVE TV

It’s really that bad. I watch MSNBC so you don’t have to, and their crew is practically breaking out the champagne to celebrate these poll numbers. Their smug self-satisfied glee makes me want Romney to stomp Obama so bad that Chuck Todd is crying like a little girl on Election Night.

Is that a Neutral and Objective urge?

Perhaps not, but at least I’m honest about it, and there’s that old thing about “afflicting the comfortable.” Keep in mind that Chuck Todd is not just a partisan talking-head MSNBC commentator; he is political director of NBC News.

I can’t wait to see the explanations come election day.

Update 4: Neo Neocon notes that Quinnipiac has a different defination of Big Red Flag than I do

From what Brown says, Quinnipiac doesn’t stratify its polls unless there’s a huge red flag staring them in the face. But Gallup does. Its accuracy would depend on what parameters it uses for stratification, and how well they reflect reality.

Or maybe a dem skew is considered a “huge blue flag” so that’s OK.