With the replacement of Renice Priebus we are seeing all of the “Trump in disarray” “Trump is doomed”, “Trump is a failure” memes trotted out again complemented by another set of poor arguments forecasting disaster. Most of the critiques are spurious but there is at least one that has basis in fact.

Of all the critiques of President Donald Trump that have come from the lips of the media there is one that is completely accurate, his polling numbers are less than one might desire in a president.  In fact if you look at the Real clear politics average of polling you will find that since the day he announced his candidacy to this moment Donald Trump has not had a single day when his favorable rating exceeded his unfavorable rating.  In fact he has not had a single day when his average favorable rating hit 45%.  Not one!

And if his personal ratings are bad his job approval ratings are even worse with a 14 point gap as of this writing and numbers that hit 46% one day of his presidency (Feb 4th 2017).

Given these polling figures augmented by “expert” pundits amplifying them, this special election cycle President Trump’s foes, like a gambling man seeing a run of cards he likes, bet millions these numbers meant the smart money was on defeat for this president and the party he leads.

Yet in every special election when polling numbers are replaced by actual voting numbers we have seen the President’s party prevail.  From Montana to Georgia and beyond, Trump keeps winning in defiance of what these poll numbers say.

The question is why? Is he beating the odds or are the polls wrong?

It would be no shock if the polls are suspect. Given the constant drumbeat of the press against Trump it would not be unwise to question the poll results they offer.

I think however there is something more than that going on and it comes down to two things we have seen from Donald Trump.

Firstly while he and his job approval numbers have been dismal the things the policies he supports are actually popular.  For example, his temporary travel ban while excoriated by the media in a poll at Politico hit 60% meanwhile Obamacare which he opposes, while enjoying its first ever surge of popularity since it was passed has never once hit 50% approval.

But what I really think has been the difference is Trump himself is a doer rather than a talker.  All his life President Trump, while famous for his showmanship has been a doer, a builder, a person who knows how to get things done.  You may not like him on a personal level, you may not approve of his tweets, but he’s all about doing things and it’s in the nature of things for people to go with doers.

Or to put in another way, when you need a set of breaks for your car your first criteria isn’t:  Is this mechanic likable?  , If you need a plumber to fix your toilet you don’t worry:  Does this plumber tweet the wrong things?   If you need minor surgery the #1 criteria to pick your surgeon isn’t:  Is this doctor “woke” to the media’s culturally approved gender norms?

No, what people want is a mechanic who knows how to fix breaks, a plumber who knows how to fix toilets and a surgeon who knows how to repair that hernia because if said mechanic, plumber or surgeon can’t do those things nothing else matters.

This is the real secret of the success of Donald Trump in the White House.  The polls can say what they want and the pundits can complain loudly, but as long as he gets laws passed, keeps getting judges approved, keeps American energy flowing and the economy booming, builds up the military and protects us from terror when it comes time for the American people to vote the smart money will be on him, Particularly as the Obamacare debacle demonstrates DC insiders seem determined to take credit for any failures that might take place

There is a breathless headline from an NBC Poll just out:

NBC/WSJ Poll: Just 29 Percent Approve of Trump’s Firing of James Comey

Now reading that headline you would think that 71 percent disapprove, and I’m sure that’s what NBC wants you to think, however if you actually read the story you find out…

Just 29 percent of Americans say they approve of President Donald Trump’s decision to fire FBI Director James Comey, while 38 percent disapprove, according to results from a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Another 32 percent of respondents don’t have enough to say on the matter.

Don’t know enough to say?  Actually the poll says “No opinion” in the graphic but it’s another attempt to make the Comey firing a problem when it isn’t, particularly when you discover that the 38 percent that is angry is driven by Democrats (2 of 3 polled) who are likely outraged about Trump getting that 2nd scoop of Ice cream.

So in the interest of showing what media spin is I’ve taken the liberty of rephrasing the headline to reflect the actual reality which is this:

The US public doesn’t give a damn that Trump fired Comey, but the media wants them to.

Exit question, if after a week of pushing this story the united and concerted MSM media efforts can’t even get 40% of the public riled up about Comey what does that say about their power to actually influence the public these days?

That’s the real story here.

Update:  powerline discovers another headline to rephrase


All of this is paid for by you. If you think this site and our writers are worthwhile goal consider subscribing and become (if you wish) a listed as a Friend of DaTechguy blog

Remember all subscribers get my weekly podcast emailed directly to you before it goes up anywhere else.


Choose a Subscription level



And of course if you want to give a one shot hit (and help pay DaWife’s medical bills) you can hit DaTipJar




Olimometer 2.52

If you are not in the position to kick in your funds we’ll always accept your prayers.

Yesterday I posted on figures at Nate Silver web site showing Trump with a lead and suggesting it was time for Democrats to start panicking. That post scored an instalanche and as of this writing is
one of my more popular posts of the year.

However it didn’t take long for the “Nowcast” to flip back to Hillary and someone on twitter tweeters explained why

This is Nate’s Tweet

So seeing Nate’s tweet I clicked on it and it led to a poll from Raba Research

Now I don’t claim to be Jake Tapper but I have been doing this for seven-years now and until that moment I had never heard of “Raba Research” so I went real clear politics to find some info on them but couldn’t find their poll. I did a search on the page for “raba research” and the two results that came up had nothing to do with any such company.

So I did another search and found a PR announcement from Albrect Public Relations titled “Introducing Raba Research” Which celebrated their being noticed by Politico and Nate Silver.

The date of that Press Release? March 16th 2016

Yes that’s right, the first poll after the Democrat convention, the poll that shows Hillary Clinton with an incredible 10 point bounce, the poll that put Hillary back in the lead comes from a company that has been doing polling for….under six months.

Now I don’t claim to know the folks at RABA Research, they might be a lot smarter than me and their poll might be the greatest thing since the invention of Kentucky Derby Pie and there are such a thing as talented rookies, that’s why MLB has a rookie of the year award.

But if I was going to declare a 10 point bounce for Hillary Clinton convention in the face of massive protests, walkouts and empty halls that the media tried to suppress, I think I just might want to rely on a poll that has been around a little longer than Hillary’s granddaughter.

But that’s just me, I predict that on the Sunday shows and the Monday morning shows the Raba Research poll showing the 10 pt Hillary bounce will be the talk of the town and considered proof positive that the Donald Trump wave has reached its crest

Unexpectedly


I’d like to think we do good work here If you’d like to help us keep up the pace please consider hitting DaTipJar




Olimometer 2.52

Please consider Subscribing. If less than 1/3 of 1% of our readers subscribed at $10 a month we’d have the 114.5 subscribers needed to our annual goal all year without solicitation.

Plus of course all subscribers get my weekly podcast emailed directly to you before it goes up anywhere else.


Choose a Subscription level



Pseudolus: [to Hysterium] Calm yourself down! I’ll tell you when it’s time to panic!
Miles Gloriosus: I smell mischief here!
Pseudolus:  It’s time.

A Funny Thing Happened on the way to the Forum 1966

 

If Don Surber smokes he’s lighting a cigar right now because here is Nate silver site this morning

time to panic

It’s one thing for a guy like me or Glenn or Don Surber or Even Rush Limbaugh to tell Democrats that they are in trouble it’s another thing to be told this by Nate silver the day after the Democrat convention and a week of the MSM lionizing all they did and said.

If you thought you saw some low tactics before given the combination of Clinton & Obama Panic you ain’t seen nothing yet. How Donald Trump handles will make all the difference.

Closing thought, Fyi to Dr. Jill Stein be aware that as a clear and present threat to their power the same anvil aimed at Trump by Clinton/Obama/DNC is heading for you too.

Update: Instalanche thanks Glenn, I see Nate is already revising and viola Hillary is up 51.7 – 48.2 but consider that not only has Nate underreported Trump in the past this still means that Hillary’s post election bump, isn’t.

BTW we have a series of six new writers who will be trying out here over the next six weeks. They are Tech Knight, Christopher Harper, Rh/NG36B , Ellen Kolb, JD Rucker Jon Fournier Each will be writing a piece a week here for six weeks and the ones who draw the most hits (both in views and via DaTipJar) will be staying so give them a peek and help decide who joins our existing Magnificent seven writers.

Update 2: Meet the MSM’s New favorite Rookie poll

Unexpectedly that is.


I’d like to think we do good work here If you’d like to help us keep up the pace please consider hitting DaTipJar




Olimometer 2.52

Please consider Subscribing. If less than 1/3 of 1% of our readers subscribed at $10 a month we’d have the 114.5 subscribers needed to our annual goal all year without solicitation.

Plus of course all subscribers get my weekly podcast emailed directly to you before it goes up anywhere else.


Choose a Subscription level



Do you remember when Jeb Bush won the 2016 GOP nomination due to his massive cash advantage and the massive amounts of money his superpacs spent on Ads?

Hillary Clinton and her allies continue to outspend Donald Trump and his backers over the airwaves by a 15-to-1 margin, according to ad-spending data from SMG Delta.

Team Clinton has spent $57 million on ads so far in the general election — $25 million coming from the campaign and another $32 million from pro-Clinton Super PACs.

By comparison, Team Trump has aired $3.6 million in ads, with all of the spending from two outside groups, the National Rifle Association ($2.3 million) and Rebuilding America Now ($1.3 million). The Trump campaign has yet to spend a single cent on ads so far in the general election

Well apparently according to Quinnipiac the voters in swing states don’t remember it either:

The presidential matchups show:

Florida – Trump at 42 percent to Clinton’s 39, compared to a 47 – 39 percent Clinton lead June 21;
Ohio – Clinton and Trump tied 41 – 41 percent, compared to a 40 – 40 percent tie June 21;
Pennsylvania – Trump at 43 percent to Clinton’s 41 percent, compared to June 21, when Clinton had 42 percent to Trump’s 41 percent. With third party candidates in the race, results are:
Florida – Trump leads Clinton 41 – 36 percent, with 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 4 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;
Ohio – Trump at 37 percent to Clinton’s 36 percent, with Johnson at 7 percent and Stein at 6 percent;
Pennsylvania – Trump over Clinton 40 – 34 percent with 9 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein.

“Donald Trump enters the Republican Convention on a small roll in the three most important swing states in the country. He has wiped out Hillary Clinton’s lead in Florida; is on the upside of too-close to call races in Florida and Pennsylvania and is locked in a dead heat in Ohio,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

The PDF of the poll is here and just for fun this is the chart of the comparative spending in swing states from that NBC piece:

money

Two thoughts:

If Hillary is having this much trouble when she’s outspending trump 10-1 or more and with the media turning on him bigtime, what will happen once Trump actually starts to spend?

This chart and poll results are the single biggest threat to the consultant class that has come down the pike in decades.

Update: How bad is it for Hillary? Last night she Called into the O’Reilly Factor and took questions from Bill without restriction talking tough on terror.

If I was Jill Stein I’d be tweeting out that fact to the feel the bern crowd every hour on the hour from now till election day.


I’d like to think we do good work here If you’d like to help us keep up the pace please consider hitting DaTipJar




Olimometer 2.52

Please consider Subscribing. If less than 1/3 of 1% of our readers subscribed at $10 a month we’d have the 114.5 subscribers needed to our annual goal all year without solicitation.

Plus of course all subscribers get my weekly podcast emailed directly to you before it goes up anywhere else.


Choose a Subscription level



 

The NYT is suddenly very down on polls titled Stop the Polling Insanity

OVER the past few weeks, cable news networks and other media sites have trumpeted wild fluctuations and surprising results in polling on the presumed general-election matchup between Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton.

I’m sure this has nothing to do with two consecration polls showing Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton at a time when such polling could persuade Democrat super delegates to reconsider giving the nomination Bernie Sanders instead who consistently out polls Trump.

After all the Times would’t do that to protect Hillary would they?

Ever think you had woken up and found you were still asleep and dreaming?

That’s how I felt when I saw this tweet from the Donald Trump camp.

My reaction to this was, wow, just wow, which is a polite way of saying:

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

In a way it makes sense. The Donald™ has decided (correctly btw) that there is little or no chance of winning over Ted Cruz voters so there is no downside for him here and given the abject hatred of Ted Cruz by the establishment GOP, the media etc etc etc this line of attack is likely to be repeated and popular and hopefully overshadowing the Marco Rubio surge. All part of the overall Trump control of the air campaign plan

Of course it’s also there is always the chance that he’s making this idiocy up as he goes along.

I was thinking it was most self delusional tweet you will see from a presidential campaign, or at least it would be if twenty minutes before I made this Joke concerning Rand Paul & Rick Santorum (both good men btw) leaving the GOP race…

….Jim Gilmore tweeted this.

My reaction of course is ARE YOU KIDDING ME, he really means it!

I’m trying to figure out which tweet is more delusional and just can’t decide so I think it’s time for a poll.

After all the world needs more laughter.

Captain Darling:  So you see, Blackadder, Field Marshal Haig is most anxious to eliminate all these German spies.
General Melchett:  Filthy Hun weasels fighting|their dirty underhand war
Captain Darling:   !And, fortunately, one of our spies
 General Melchett:  Splendid fellows, brave heroes,|risking life and limb for Blighty.

Black Adder Goes Fourth General Hospital 1989

As I recall it was a mere week ago that the left was beside itself at Judge Roy Moore daring to defy federal courts claiming:

So the chief justice, never shy about taking on a fight, even a losing one, acted. He fired off a missive to state probate judges to refuse the marriage licenses to gay couples, saying they weren’t bound to adhere to the ruling of the federal judge who declared Alabama’s gay marriage ban unconstitutional.

this has led to an ethics complaint by the liberal Southern Poverty Law Center and sites on the left have been full of accusation and outrage

The Bottom line is the left is absolutely beside itself that Moore a state judge would defy a federal ruling and have made it clear that such a stance is not to be tolerated in a law-abiding America.

Unless of course it’s a ruling they don’t like:

But perhaps more unsettling to supporters of constitutional checks and balances is the finding that 43% of Democrats believe the president should have the right to ignore the courts. Only 35% of voters in President Obama’s party disagree, compared to 81% of Republicans and 67% of voters not affiliated with either major party.

Allah Pundit comments:

Once you tell the president it’s cool to ignore court rulings if it’s “important,” you might as well pass an enabling act and hand him supreme power. Forty-three percent of Democrats, an actual plurality, didn’t flinch, though. And the irony is, Obama’s own defenses of his power grabs aren’t much more sophisticated than that. His rationale for executive amnesty is that Congress is hopelessly gridlocked, the legal limbo that illegals find themselves in is intolerable, and we’ve now reached a point of crisis (a political crisis for the White House, not a policy crisis) that simply demands executive action. It’s crucially important that he act unilaterally and that he act now, even though he can’t quite explain — again, on policy terms — why that is. Just trust him. It’s important. And Democrats do, including and especially the core Democratic constituencies of women, young adults, and minorities.

This might seem a contradiction to most of us but as this is one of the advantages of a philosophy whose primary driver is ends justifying means.

We’ve been hearing how people have turned on Barack Obama and how people regret their votes for him but with Tea Party anger at the GOP still present how much of that regret still actually exists?

I thought I’d find out by our 2012 Regrets I’ve had a few poll

[poll id=”2″]

 

You can only vote once.  We’ll take your votes till Friday and announce the results on DaTechGuy on DaRadio

************************

Olimometer 2.52

We remain 5 grand away from making our expenses for the year and a sold $1000 away from making them this month.

If you think the coverage and commentary we provide here is worth your support please consider hitting DaTipJar below to meet our annual expenses.

Consider the lineup you get In addition to my own work seven days a week you get John Ruberry (Marathon Pundit)  on Sunday Pat Austin (And so it goes in Shreveport)  on Monday  Tim Imholt on Tuesday,  AP Dillon (Lady Liberty1885) Thursdays, Pastor George Kelly Fridays,   Steve Eggleston on Saturdays with  Baldilocks (Tue & Sat)  and   Fausta  (Wed & Fri) of (Fausta Blog) twice a week.

If that’s not worth $20 a month I’d like to know what is?

The Sterling case is still the big story in the media, and the administration is very happy about that, because the rest of the news doesn’t look all that good, such as:

here’s Carney insisting that the Ben Rhodes email that lit up conservative media yesterday, which listed as one of the White House’s goals before Susan Rice’s Sunday show appearances “to underscore that these protests are rooted in an Internet video, and not a broader failure of policy,” didn’t necessarily mean Benghazi — even though the whole reason Rice was booked was because a U.S. ambassador had just been killed in the American consulate there. It’s basically his version of “These aren’t the droids you’re looking for.” Is it working?

I don’t think I could do a job where I had to life for a living.

Then there’s the question of Big money, Big Democrat money that is:

During a gathering here of major Democratic donors this week that has raised more than $30 million for liberal groups, questions about the party’s split personality on the issue were dodged, rejected or answered with an array of rationalizations. That is, when they weren’t met with recriminations or even gentle physical force.

You mean to say the Koch brothers are not the only source of big money in politics? Who woulda thunk it!

Meanwhile while Mr. Sterling has said some nasty stuff in private, a Democrat congressman is being a little more public in his racism and has an explanation for CNN:

Bash: Isn’t that a racially charged term?

Thompson: “For some it is, but to others it’s the truth.”

Bash: Because looking at that and hearing that kind of language, that certainly wouldn’t be appropriate if it was coming from somebody who was white.

Thompson: “But I’m black.”

Bash: That makes it OK?

Imagine if Cliven Bundy gave that “to others it is truth” answer, but as Allahpundit put it:

Look at it from his perspective: He knows he won’t be reprimanded, so why waste time cooking up anything more than pro forma spin?

Meanwhile growth continues to be poor:

Economic growth plummeted to a dismal 0.1% in the first quarter of 2104. They’re blaming it on the weather…
…Oh well, don’t worry. The economists who predicted a 1.1% rise assure us that a strong rebound is just around the corner.

The Polls still stink

a new ABC News/Washington Post poll that shows President Obama skidding to a dismal 41/52 approval/disapproval score. The poll contains other bad news for Democrats, e.g., by 53%-39%, respondents say it is more important to have Republicans in Congress to check Obama’s agenda than Democrats to support it. And the numbers on Obamacare are bad.

very bad

On the heels of the release of a Washington Post-ABC News poll which showed President Barack Obama sinking to the lowest approval rating of his presidency and Democratic voters displaying a lack of enthusiasm ahead of the 2014 midterm elections, a Harvard University Institute of Politics poll of young voters is set to further dispirit Democrats.

That survey of 18-29-year-olds found that only 23 percent of young Americans say they will “definitely” vote in November, a drop of 11 points from Harvard IOP’s last poll conducted in November, 2013.

And Wendy Davis has gone from Democrat heroine to Glenn Close impersonator

“The uninformed opinions of a Washington, D.C., desk jockey who’s never stepped foot in Texas couldn’t be less relevant to what’s actually happening on the ground,” Karin Johanson, Davis campaign manager, said in a surprising statement after Shumlin’s slight.

I will not be ignored Peter

If the left is lucky all of this will continue to be overshadowed until a new meme can overwhelm the reality for them.

****************************

 

Olimometer 2.52

This blog exists as a full time endeavor thanks to your support. The reporting, the commentary and the nine magnificent seven writers are all made possible because you, the reader choose to support it.

This has been a very bad month we are still  $1042 for a full pay.

If you think the work we do here for the conservative movement is worth it, please consider hitting DaTipJar below.

Naturally once our monthly goal is made these solicitations will disappear till the next month but once we get 61 more subscribers  at $20 a month the goal will be covered for a full year and this pitch will disappear until 2015. Consider the lineup you get for this price, in addition to my own work seven days a week you get John Ruberry (Marathon Pundit) and Pat Austin (And so it goes in Shreveport)  on Sunday  Linda Szugyi (No one of any import) on Monday  Tim Imholt on Tuesday,  AP Dillon (Lady Liberty1885) Thursdays, Pastor George Kelly Fridays,   Steve Eggleston on Saturdays with  Baldilocks (Tue & Sat)  and   Fausta  (Wed & Fri) of (Fausta Blog) twice a week. If that’s not worth $20 a month I’d like to know what is?