Yesterday I posted on figures at Nate Silver web site showing Trump with a lead and suggesting it was time for Democrats to start panicking. That post scored an instalanche and as of this writing is
one of my more popular posts of the year.

However it didn’t take long for the “Nowcast” to flip back to Hillary and someone on twitter tweeters explained why

This is Nate’s Tweet

So seeing Nate’s tweet I clicked on it and it led to a poll from Raba Research

Now I don’t claim to be Jake Tapper but I have been doing this for seven-years now and until that moment I had never heard of “Raba Research” so I went real clear politics to find some info on them but couldn’t find their poll. I did a search on the page for “raba research” and the two results that came up had nothing to do with any such company.

So I did another search and found a PR announcement from Albrect Public Relations titled “Introducing Raba Research” Which celebrated their being noticed by Politico and Nate Silver.

The date of that Press Release? March 16th 2016

Yes that’s right, the first poll after the Democrat convention, the poll that shows Hillary Clinton with an incredible 10 point bounce, the poll that put Hillary back in the lead comes from a company that has been doing polling for….under six months.

Now I don’t claim to know the folks at RABA Research, they might be a lot smarter than me and their poll might be the greatest thing since the invention of Kentucky Derby Pie and there are such a thing as talented rookies, that’s why MLB has a rookie of the year award.

But if I was going to declare a 10 point bounce for Hillary Clinton convention in the face of massive protests, walkouts and empty halls that the media tried to suppress, I think I just might want to rely on a poll that has been around a little longer than Hillary’s granddaughter.

But that’s just me, I predict that on the Sunday shows and the Monday morning shows the Raba Research poll showing the 10 pt Hillary bounce will be the talk of the town and considered proof positive that the Donald Trump wave has reached its crest


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Pseudolus: [to Hysterium] Calm yourself down! I’ll tell you when it’s time to panic!
Miles Gloriosus: I smell mischief here!
Pseudolus:  It’s time.

A Funny Thing Happened on the way to the Forum 1966


If Don Surber smokes he’s lighting a cigar right now because here is Nate silver site this morning

time to panic

It’s one thing for a guy like me or Glenn or Don Surber or Even Rush Limbaugh to tell Democrats that they are in trouble it’s another thing to be told this by Nate silver the day after the Democrat convention and a week of the MSM lionizing all they did and said.

If you thought you saw some low tactics before given the combination of Clinton & Obama Panic you ain’t seen nothing yet. How Donald Trump handles will make all the difference.

Closing thought, Fyi to Dr. Jill Stein be aware that as a clear and present threat to their power the same anvil aimed at Trump by Clinton/Obama/DNC is heading for you too.

Update: Instalanche thanks Glenn, I see Nate is already revising and viola Hillary is up 51.7 – 48.2 but consider that not only has Nate underreported Trump in the past this still means that Hillary’s post election bump, isn’t.

BTW we have a series of six new writers who will be trying out here over the next six weeks. They are Tech Knight, Christopher Harper, Rh/NG36B , Ellen Kolb, JD Rucker Jon Fournier Each will be writing a piece a week here for six weeks and the ones who draw the most hits (both in views and via DaTipJar) will be staying so give them a peek and help decide who joins our existing Magnificent seven writers.

Update 2: Meet the MSM’s New favorite Rookie poll

Unexpectedly that is.

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Do you remember when Jeb Bush won the 2016 GOP nomination due to his massive cash advantage and the massive amounts of money his superpacs spent on Ads?

Hillary Clinton and her allies continue to outspend Donald Trump and his backers over the airwaves by a 15-to-1 margin, according to ad-spending data from SMG Delta.

Team Clinton has spent $57 million on ads so far in the general election — $25 million coming from the campaign and another $32 million from pro-Clinton Super PACs.

By comparison, Team Trump has aired $3.6 million in ads, with all of the spending from two outside groups, the National Rifle Association ($2.3 million) and Rebuilding America Now ($1.3 million). The Trump campaign has yet to spend a single cent on ads so far in the general election

Well apparently according to Quinnipiac the voters in swing states don’t remember it either:

The presidential matchups show:

Florida – Trump at 42 percent to Clinton’s 39, compared to a 47 – 39 percent Clinton lead June 21;
Ohio – Clinton and Trump tied 41 – 41 percent, compared to a 40 – 40 percent tie June 21;
Pennsylvania – Trump at 43 percent to Clinton’s 41 percent, compared to June 21, when Clinton had 42 percent to Trump’s 41 percent. With third party candidates in the race, results are:
Florida – Trump leads Clinton 41 – 36 percent, with 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 4 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;
Ohio – Trump at 37 percent to Clinton’s 36 percent, with Johnson at 7 percent and Stein at 6 percent;
Pennsylvania – Trump over Clinton 40 – 34 percent with 9 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein.

“Donald Trump enters the Republican Convention on a small roll in the three most important swing states in the country. He has wiped out Hillary Clinton’s lead in Florida; is on the upside of too-close to call races in Florida and Pennsylvania and is locked in a dead heat in Ohio,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

The PDF of the poll is here and just for fun this is the chart of the comparative spending in swing states from that NBC piece:


Two thoughts:

If Hillary is having this much trouble when she’s outspending trump 10-1 or more and with the media turning on him bigtime, what will happen once Trump actually starts to spend?

This chart and poll results are the single biggest threat to the consultant class that has come down the pike in decades.

Update: How bad is it for Hillary? Last night she Called into the O’Reilly Factor and took questions from Bill without restriction talking tough on terror.

If I was Jill Stein I’d be tweeting out that fact to the feel the bern crowd every hour on the hour from now till election day.

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The NYT is suddenly very down on polls titled Stop the Polling Insanity

OVER the past few weeks, cable news networks and other media sites have trumpeted wild fluctuations and surprising results in polling on the presumed general-election matchup between Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton.

I’m sure this has nothing to do with two consecration polls showing Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton at a time when such polling could persuade Democrat super delegates to reconsider giving the nomination Bernie Sanders instead who consistently out polls Trump.

After all the Times would’t do that to protect Hillary would they?

Ever think you had woken up and found you were still asleep and dreaming?

That’s how I felt when I saw this tweet from the Donald Trump camp.

My reaction to this was, wow, just wow, which is a polite way of saying:


In a way it makes sense. The Donald™ has decided (correctly btw) that there is little or no chance of winning over Ted Cruz voters so there is no downside for him here and given the abject hatred of Ted Cruz by the establishment GOP, the media etc etc etc this line of attack is likely to be repeated and popular and hopefully overshadowing the Marco Rubio surge. All part of the overall Trump control of the air campaign plan

Of course it’s also there is always the chance that he’s making this idiocy up as he goes along.

I was thinking it was most self delusional tweet you will see from a presidential campaign, or at least it would be if twenty minutes before I made this Joke concerning Rand Paul & Rick Santorum (both good men btw) leaving the GOP race…

….Jim Gilmore tweeted this.

My reaction of course is ARE YOU KIDDING ME, he really means it!

I’m trying to figure out which tweet is more delusional and just can’t decide so I think it’s time for a poll.

After all the world needs more laughter.

Captain Darling:  So you see, Blackadder, Field Marshal Haig is most anxious to eliminate all these German spies.
General Melchett:  Filthy Hun weasels fighting|their dirty underhand war
Captain Darling:   !And, fortunately, one of our spies
 General Melchett:  Splendid fellows, brave heroes,|risking life and limb for Blighty.

Black Adder Goes Fourth General Hospital 1989

As I recall it was a mere week ago that the left was beside itself at Judge Roy Moore daring to defy federal courts claiming:

So the chief justice, never shy about taking on a fight, even a losing one, acted. He fired off a missive to state probate judges to refuse the marriage licenses to gay couples, saying they weren’t bound to adhere to the ruling of the federal judge who declared Alabama’s gay marriage ban unconstitutional.

this has led to an ethics complaint by the liberal Southern Poverty Law Center and sites on the left have been full of accusation and outrage

The Bottom line is the left is absolutely beside itself that Moore a state judge would defy a federal ruling and have made it clear that such a stance is not to be tolerated in a law-abiding America.

Unless of course it’s a ruling they don’t like:

But perhaps more unsettling to supporters of constitutional checks and balances is the finding that 43% of Democrats believe the president should have the right to ignore the courts. Only 35% of voters in President Obama’s party disagree, compared to 81% of Republicans and 67% of voters not affiliated with either major party.

Allah Pundit comments:

Once you tell the president it’s cool to ignore court rulings if it’s “important,” you might as well pass an enabling act and hand him supreme power. Forty-three percent of Democrats, an actual plurality, didn’t flinch, though. And the irony is, Obama’s own defenses of his power grabs aren’t much more sophisticated than that. His rationale for executive amnesty is that Congress is hopelessly gridlocked, the legal limbo that illegals find themselves in is intolerable, and we’ve now reached a point of crisis (a political crisis for the White House, not a policy crisis) that simply demands executive action. It’s crucially important that he act unilaterally and that he act now, even though he can’t quite explain — again, on policy terms — why that is. Just trust him. It’s important. And Democrats do, including and especially the core Democratic constituencies of women, young adults, and minorities.

This might seem a contradiction to most of us but as this is one of the advantages of a philosophy whose primary driver is ends justifying means.

We’ve been hearing how people have turned on Barack Obama and how people regret their votes for him but with Tea Party anger at the GOP still present how much of that regret still actually exists?

I thought I’d find out by our 2012 Regrets I’ve had a few poll

[poll id=”2″]


You can only vote once.  We’ll take your votes till Friday and announce the results on DaTechGuy on DaRadio


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If you think the coverage and commentary we provide here is worth your support please consider hitting DaTipJar below to meet our annual expenses.

Consider the lineup you get In addition to my own work seven days a week you get John Ruberry (Marathon Pundit)  on Sunday Pat Austin (And so it goes in Shreveport)  on Monday  Tim Imholt on Tuesday,  AP Dillon (Lady Liberty1885) Thursdays, Pastor George Kelly Fridays,   Steve Eggleston on Saturdays with  Baldilocks (Tue & Sat)  and   Fausta  (Wed & Fri) of (Fausta Blog) twice a week.

If that’s not worth $20 a month I’d like to know what is?

The Sterling case is still the big story in the media, and the administration is very happy about that, because the rest of the news doesn’t look all that good, such as:

here’s Carney insisting that the Ben Rhodes email that lit up conservative media yesterday, which listed as one of the White House’s goals before Susan Rice’s Sunday show appearances “to underscore that these protests are rooted in an Internet video, and not a broader failure of policy,” didn’t necessarily mean Benghazi — even though the whole reason Rice was booked was because a U.S. ambassador had just been killed in the American consulate there. It’s basically his version of “These aren’t the droids you’re looking for.” Is it working?

I don’t think I could do a job where I had to life for a living.

Then there’s the question of Big money, Big Democrat money that is:

During a gathering here of major Democratic donors this week that has raised more than $30 million for liberal groups, questions about the party’s split personality on the issue were dodged, rejected or answered with an array of rationalizations. That is, when they weren’t met with recriminations or even gentle physical force.

You mean to say the Koch brothers are not the only source of big money in politics? Who woulda thunk it!

Meanwhile while Mr. Sterling has said some nasty stuff in private, a Democrat congressman is being a little more public in his racism and has an explanation for CNN:

Bash: Isn’t that a racially charged term?

Thompson: “For some it is, but to others it’s the truth.”

Bash: Because looking at that and hearing that kind of language, that certainly wouldn’t be appropriate if it was coming from somebody who was white.

Thompson: “But I’m black.”

Bash: That makes it OK?

Imagine if Cliven Bundy gave that “to others it is truth” answer, but as Allahpundit put it:

Look at it from his perspective: He knows he won’t be reprimanded, so why waste time cooking up anything more than pro forma spin?

Meanwhile growth continues to be poor:

Economic growth plummeted to a dismal 0.1% in the first quarter of 2104. They’re blaming it on the weather…
…Oh well, don’t worry. The economists who predicted a 1.1% rise assure us that a strong rebound is just around the corner.

The Polls still stink

a new ABC News/Washington Post poll that shows President Obama skidding to a dismal 41/52 approval/disapproval score. The poll contains other bad news for Democrats, e.g., by 53%-39%, respondents say it is more important to have Republicans in Congress to check Obama’s agenda than Democrats to support it. And the numbers on Obamacare are bad.

very bad

On the heels of the release of a Washington Post-ABC News poll which showed President Barack Obama sinking to the lowest approval rating of his presidency and Democratic voters displaying a lack of enthusiasm ahead of the 2014 midterm elections, a Harvard University Institute of Politics poll of young voters is set to further dispirit Democrats.

That survey of 18-29-year-olds found that only 23 percent of young Americans say they will “definitely” vote in November, a drop of 11 points from Harvard IOP’s last poll conducted in November, 2013.

And Wendy Davis has gone from Democrat heroine to Glenn Close impersonator

“The uninformed opinions of a Washington, D.C., desk jockey who’s never stepped foot in Texas couldn’t be less relevant to what’s actually happening on the ground,” Karin Johanson, Davis campaign manager, said in a surprising statement after Shumlin’s slight.

I will not be ignored Peter

If the left is lucky all of this will continue to be overshadowed until a new meme can overwhelm the reality for them.



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Tomorrow at noon while the rest of Massachusetts is either in Boston cheering or watching Boston celebrate on TV I will be in the studio bringing you DaTechGuy on DaRadio

Tomorrow we will talk with Professor Janine Parry about the polls in Arkansas that foreshadowed the new poll concerning the Democrats reported in Mother Jones:

In Democratic districts, net incumbent approval has plummeted by 11 points, from +8 approval to +3 disapproval. In Republican districts, incumbent approval has gone down only 4 points. You see the same results when they ask a question about warmth of feeling toward incumbents: It’s down 7 points in Republican districts and 9 points in Democratic districts.

This isn’t good news for Democrats. It’s true that attitudes toward the Republican Party have taken a bigger hit than attitudes toward the Democratic Party, but attitudes toward actual incumbents are exactly the opposite. And in elections, that’s what matters.

You can join the conversation at 888-9-fedora (unless you are listening to a replay of course).

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And if you missed last week’s show with Ed Morrissey of Hotair you can hear the first hour here and the second here.

MP 1: We had better yield a point or two rather than go to war with the Americans

Mp 2: Yes, nothing but hard knocks there

Conversation in Parliament 1830′ per Fletcher Pratt Preble’s Boys 1950

John Henry Thomas:They’ve got you outnumbered, lets start with that.

Col Langdon:   Being outnumbered is a fact of life we’ve gotten used to.

The Undefeated 1969

One of my first memories of school was my big brother’s memorable fight at St. Anthony’s.

I was in Kindergarten & my big brother was in 8th grade, My brother had enough of a bully and resolved to fight him.  It was 1968 a different time where fighting was more accepted in culture,  nevertheless he was told he was going to be a losing proposition the other guys was bigger and stronger & had more friends to back him up.  He fought him anyway.

The result was as predicted, my brother took a beating like few people endured any objective observer would have said he lost…

…until they looked at the bully who was beaten pretty bad, not as bad as my brother but worse than he’d ever been beaten before.

They both got in big trouble, the nuns didn’t put up with this stuff, but in the end neither that guy or his friends ever bothered my big brother again.

And that brings us to the shutdown & the 37% solution.

The media has noted that the polls show the Republicans are blamed more than the Dems for the shutdown, in fact even Ted Cruz’s own polling shows that is true.

However the same polls are showing Barack Obama at 37% approval, Show that while the GOP is getting more blame the President’s numbers are taking a big hit and the democrats in congress are not doing well either:

In another edition of the polls the media won’t cover, between September 29 and October 6, Democrats have lost a four point lead in Rasmussen’s generic ballot that asks voters if they would vote for a Democrat or Republican in the upcoming midterm elections. That poll is now tied at 40% – 40%. At the end of last month, Democrats led 42% – 38%.

Yet the media won’t touch it as Rush Limbaugh illustrated yesterday:

Wolf Blitzer on March 13th, 2006, when Bush’s approval number hit 36%. Today Barack Obama’s approve number’s at 37%, and they are not talking about it. The AP story in which that poll result is announced has the following headline: “Poll: GOP Gets The Blame In Shutdown.” They have a poll that shows that 71% of the American people are blaming the Republicans for the shutdown. In the same poll, 50% are blaming the Democrats for something, but the media says, “Look, 20% spread, boy, the Republicans are really taking it on the chin for the government shutdown.” But the poll does not say people are upset with the shutdown.

But that’s not the point. The point is, once again, there is no media, there is no news. This is the Democrat Party with activists disguised as journalists. Thirty-seven percent approval for The Messiah, “Barack Hussein Obama! Mmm! Mmm! Mmm!” And it’s not some outlier poll. You have to read over halfway down into that story to learn that. I haven’t seen it anywhere else. It’s been on AP, but have you seen anybody else pick that up? It’s just classic.

Think about this for a second. The president is at 37% the Democrats 50% and that’s with the newspapers and the media solidly behind them for weeks and months blaming the GOP.

What will Democrat numbers look like in a week, a month?

The GOP is used to this treatment and can handle it, the question becomes how much longer can Democrats handle it? How much longer before they run out of the GOP core voters to beat up on in the shutdown and have to defund causes the left care about?

How low can they go? If the GOP can hold it’s nerve we’ll find out but when it gets too low for them to bear watch a deal be made and watch the media pivot celebrating Barack Obama’s willingness to compromise for the good of the county.

Should be interesting.

Olimometer 2.52

Thursday comes and I’m a full $261 shy of my paycheck.

It will take 13 tip jar hitters to kick in $20 to change that.

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Cobb: From what I’ve seen, Paden doesn’t care about money. He says he doesn’t care about anything, but he does. There’s just no tellin’ what it’s gonna be.

Silverado 1985

For where your treasure is, there also will your heart be.

Luke 12:34

Yesterday while driving with my son’s we listened to Michael Graham ask an interesting question.

Looking at the President’s sudden drop in popularity among youth, the question became why?

You have a lousy economy where college students and high school ones have no prospect work, but we had that for 4 years and they still voted for him.

You have Obamacare but the young now increasingly living on their parents insurance have not been affected, except for the cutting of some hours.

You have Benghazi but with so few young people serving that might as well be a video game.

The IRS scandal?   You have to actually have a job and paying taxes to worry about the IRS and with the young so disengaged how many ARE involved in the tea party or even know what that’s about?

But the NSA scandal:  THAT they understand.

Young people spend their entries lives on the net or smartphones. When not in the nearly quaint act of calling they are texting or surfing or downloading (legally and illegally).

So now think of it. The NSA scandal means that Barack Obama’s people have access to every call, every download and every peep on the net and even a low information voter can’t miss that the entertainment industry absolutely loves this president.

And while the youth might not care about the implications of silencing the Tea Party or dead navy seals but they know that industry and they how much they want stiff penalties for illegal downloads.

My son told me he has friends who have been downloading movies and songs for years who literally are afraid of using their computers since the NSA scandal broke.

To old fogies like me who doesn’t think .99 cents for a song is a big deal it’s the least of our worries in term of the NSA and other scandals but while we’re busy fighting on immigration the young kids have noticed stories like this:

The US Supreme Court refused Monday to take up the case of a woman ordered to pay a $220,000 fine for illegally downloading music off the internet.

The country’s top court upheld without comment the verdict against Jammie Thomas-Rasset in the long-running, high-profile digital piracy case.

…and seen themselves.  The woman in that story could be any one of them.

Of course the president could solve that problem by pushing for laws loosing up download rules, but if you thought the entertainment industry moved the White House on Gay Marriage that’s nothing to how they’ll howl if anything is done to loosen the copyright rules that puts money in their pockets.

The youth of America are disengaged and disinterested but when the generation that’s living with their parents,  can’t pay their college loans and won’t get hired full time to avoid Obamacare see the possibility of fines they can never pay for laws they KNOW they’ve broken they notice.


Olimometer 2.52

The great paycheck drought continues and after two consecutive weeks of missing my paycheck going into Tuesday with only $2 toward the $305 paycheck can not be spun in any positive way.

It can only be corrected and the final arbiter of if that correction is to take place, is you.

If you think I’ve earned that paycheck then I’d encourage you to hit DaTipJar below so I don’t remain over $800 shy of the mortgage bill this month.

If not, I’ll try harder. no amount of optimism will pay this month mortgage.

Don’t tell me words don’t matter

Barack Obama Feb 16th 2008

As soon as the coin in the coffer rings, the soul from purgatory springs.

attributed to Johann Tetzel

Craig: The Balliols will kiss his ass, so we must.

Braveheart 1995

As the various Obama scandals continue to percolate (not that people know what percolate means anymore) there seems to be one constant when it come to this president, his approval rating.

In one sense that is not all that odd, this president maintained his numbers through four of the worst economic years of the half century of my life, he maintained his popularity despite pushing through what might be the single most unpopular piece of legislation that has ever been brought before the American people and passed by a congress, albeit without a single GOP vote.

So given that start it’s not all that unusual that the IRS Scandal, the AP Scandal and especially the Benghazi Scandal have not seriously affected his overall approval.

Mind you the people aren’t giving him high marks on actual performance, the majority continues to think the country is in the wrong direction, and is not convinced of the president’s explanations for them.

The sight of people taking the 5th before congress, of Americans describing persecution by the IRS,  the changing Benghazi stories where Americans died and the attempt to play a member of the press as a terrorist accomplice without cause instinctively rubs Americans the wrong way.

Yet the president’s approval remains in the high 40’s to low 50’s there is clearly a floor to the president’s approval rating and no amount of scandal or failure can puncture it.

The question is why?

I’ve given this a lot of thought and am forced to conclude people aren’t so much supporting Barack Obama as they are justifying themselves & inoculating themselves

During the election of 2008 it seemed the entire world was caught up into the idea that a not even one term senator and a state legislator with a record of missing votes coming from the most corrupt political machine in the county was going to lead the country to an incredible future.

If that wasn’t ridiculous enough many also believed that the Election of Barack Obama would  permanently make race issues a thing of the past.

Five years later both of those statements seem so absurd that even the farthest left of democrats are not willing to say it.

And when it became apparent that Barack Obama was over his head came the excuses:

The presidency was too big a job (never mind that over 3 dozen men managed it under worse circumstances than he)

The opposition was obstructing him (never mind that every president since Carter faced at least 4 years of a house of congress against him)

The  Tea Party, or Rush Limbaugh or Glenn Beck were opposing him (Never mind that every republican president since the 60’s has had a united media uniformly opposing him)

it didn’t matter what Barack Obama did, because he was trying, REALLY HARD.

and if you didn’t support him, well we all knew the reason why:


That isn’t a tweet from 2008, that’s a tweet from today five years later. After all the scandal, after all the failure, after five years of the worst economy most living Americans have seen this is still where we are with an affirmative action hire who can not be critiqued without being branded as a racist.

People seriously thought they were done with this, and we are still hearing these world expressed publicly and not just by individuals on twitter but on national programs to a national audience.

And if this is what is being said to the general public, what is being said on alternative media, in black media, how many people seriously believe that all of this is a conspiracy to bring down the first black president because of the color of his skin.

And it’s something people can relate to, in every bureaucracy there are people that can’t be touched, people who have relatives in the right places, people who have slept their way to the top, or people who if you say a word about them will lead to your doom.  Much easier to get on with your work, nod and smile.

One of the principles of liberalism that we have seen over and over again is virtue is not based on what you do, it’s based on what you say, what you express.   You can have all the wealth you want, but if you express support for the Occupy Movement you care about the poor, you can have the largest carbon footprint in the world, but if you believe in global warming or carbon taxes you are saving the earth.

And likewise in reverse if you believe the wrong thing, or say the wrong thing it doesn’t matter what you actually do, your words condemn you in their eyes.

The American people are too distracted, too exhausted and too busy just trying to get by in Obama’s brave new world to want to deal with this.  They just want that indulgence back.

I think that segment of the public who doesn’t like the way things are going refuse to publicly hold Obama Responsible for anything period.  So they’ll carry on and wait. They’ll happily accept the indulgence the professional left will give them while they gripe privately out of earshot hoping they can wait out the rest of the term out without trouble.

And we will pay for it.


Olimometer 2.52

Today my youngest found a package from amazon Figuring out what it was and considering that he’s been on the slack side left a note ending with the words:

Thanks dad but I feel like I’ve done nothing to warrant it.

There are days when I feel the same here and it’s for you to decide if my work warrants the weekly paycheck that I’m currently 14% on the way toward.

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Two pieces of news came out yesterday that at first glance might seem totally unrelated, first a poll concerning President Obama

His approval rating has dropped to the lowest level in more than a year, with more voters now turning thumbs down on his performance than thumbs up, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll. The measure of how much people like him also has dropped.

He’s still vastly more popular than Congress, particularly congressional Republicans. But in the biggest political clash of the year – over the federal budget and how to curb deficits – voters split 44 percent to 42 percent between preferring Congress or Obama.

Ok so polling shows Barack Obama is having some trouble in the numbers, big deal, polls go up and down all the time. It’s the nature of things, and anyway why on earth would this have anything to do with this:

Donald Trump thinks actress Ashley Judd would make a “great” Senate candidate, the real estate mogul tweeted on Tuesday.

“All reports indicate Ashley Judd will be running for Sen. McConnell’s seat,” Trump wrote. “She’s going to be a great candidate. …Re: Ashley Judd: Keep @KarlRove away. He already made her a viable candidate.”

Asked to clarify the remarks, Trump told POLITICO in a statement: “Ashley Judd’s candidacy was created by Karl Rove’s terrible ads; even before she thought seriously about running. The ads made her look great and now she probably will run.”

Trump has previously said that an ad from Rove’s super PAC was “the best thing that ever happened to Ashley Judd—simply increases her profile.”

DaTechGuy you’ve totally lost me, why on EARTH are you quoting Donald Trump opinion in Ashley Judd when everyone from Glenn Reynolds to Stacy McCain says she’s a joke, and what on earth does this have to do with the president’s poll numbers?

It’s actually pretty simple, celebrity culture and low information voters.

One of the reasons why Barack Obama beat all the odds and won re-election with a bad record and an even worse economy combination was the inability of Mitt Romney’s message to break through to low information votes. The president’s ad blitz made sure the background noise had nothing to do with the reality.

This time it has had the exact opposite effect, particularly on the sequester. The president pushed the evil of sequester and pointed to it as a direct cause of the White House cancelling kids tours and the media lapped it up.

Those EVIL republicans, on every network and on CNN in every airport people who do not pay attention to the news say school kids not about to tour the white house. The realities that other cuts could be made didn’t matter, the people who only see news in passing while checking on Lady Gaga or their favorite movie star knew the money wasn’t there for parties because of Republicans then they picked up their magazines to find out about Adele and Beyonce and read this:

The same week that President Obama’s administration announced that due to sequestration, White House tours would be cancelled, sources at the White House announced that it would be hosting megastars Adele and Beyonce at Michelle’s 50th birthday party next year. “America’s First Lady will be holding a huge celebrity-packed party for her birthday at the White House next year and, as she adores Adele and Beyonce, she has asked them both to sing,” the source told the UK Daily Mail. The source did say that “The Obamas will pay Adele’s expenses as it’s a private party, not a State one.”

OK they likely didn’t read that because low information voters don’t read Breitbart, they check out entertainment sites like this one:

Today it was revealed that director Quention Tarantino is desperate to have her compose a song for his new film after he fell in love with her Oscar-winning song for Skyfall.

And just a few hours later, it has been reported that the London lass has now been asked to perform at Michelle Obama’s 50th birthday alongside Beyoncé.

and the drop, and BET, and hello, and in entertainment sections elsewhere.

Bottom line the “White house can’t afford tours” story and the “White House has Beyonce & Adele to sing” story hit the exact same places that the low information voters go at the exact same time and the same voters who wouldn’t be caught dead on Fox (or any news site) suddenly had the message that Brietbart was trying to make

It’s been suggested the GOP get involved in the culture pages this is why.

And that’s why Ashley Judd is dangerous.

At first glance Judd is a joke with an entire persona that is totally opposite to what wins in Kentucky, but remember those same low information voters are not going to be reading any of the stories we are writing about her. They will see her celebrity, they will see various stars turn out for her, maybe a singer or two

We can have story after story about Judd and her pronouncements but if they don’t break though to the voter who simply sees a pretty Kentucky girl who managed to make it big, who does work for “charity” its not going to make a difference.

Granted Kentucky went heavily for Mitt in 2012 but it becomes a question of which message gets through to the people. A celebrity like Judd can break through to people in ways a regular pol simply can’t and there is absolutely no way for Mitch McConnell to portray himself as anything else like a Washington insider.

And when Mitch McConnell an established long time pol starts running ads against this pretty Kentucky girl who managed to make good watch how people react.

Does this mean she can romp, particularly if there is not a Tea Party Candidate dividing the GOP? No, but it means that if the GOP takes Judd, a woman who can raise money and get coverage at will, they might be vulnerable to the same mistakes Massachusetts Democrats made in January 2010 in a race they couldn’t lose.

We are in a brave new world, after two generations of the secular culture reaching that low information voter whose preparation for exercising the franchise our forefathers fought for is People’s magazine and the Supermarket tabloids are a factor. Sometimes it gives, sometimes it takes away and we ignore it at our and the country’s peril.

Olimometer 2.52

I’ll be in transit to DC today and I have a couple of posts scheduled before I land. While I’m going to travel far today the quest for that elusive $300 paycheck hasn’t moved an inch since yesterday.

We had a fair amount of traffic the last few days with our coverage of the SF ads and CPAC is going to hopefully drive more, but without those 14 people willing to kick in that $20 this week, all the traffic in the world won’t matter.

So if you can give a hand to keep independent conservative blogging going consider hitting DaTipJar and getting that thermometer moving

Some things are just so mind blowingly ridiculous that it amazes me that they would be said.


Here is the WSJ article.

By a more than 2-to-1 margin, Americans say Mr. Obama is doing a better job overall than Republicans at attempting to unify the country in a bipartisan way, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

The poll found that 48% of respondents see Mr. Obama as trying to unify the country, compared to 22% who said that of Republicans and 37% who said that of Democrats defines “unify” thus:

[yoo-nuh-fahy] verb (used with object), verb (used without object), u·ni·fied, u·ni·fy·ing.
to make or become a single unit; unite: to unify conflicting theories; to unify a country.

Now I admit I’m just a blogger and radio talk show host but be definition and not a paid member of NBC or the WSJ but if 48% of the people said Barack Obama is uniting the country, then by definition 52% of the people did not?

No wonder the same media is trying to sell us Sequestration as a cut. They must think we are a nation of idiots.

Then again given the results of he last election…

Update: Glenn links while Sequestration brings back memories of my youth.

This headline at First Read is simply incredible:

Public lowers expectations heading into Obama’s 2nd term

Apparently Hope and chance is gone, the public has lost hope and doesn’t expect much change.

In addition, more than seven in 10 are dissatisfied with the current state of the economy, and just more than a third are either “very” or “fairly” confident in Obama’s ability to promote a strong and growing economy.

And 60 percent believe the coming year will be a time to hold back and save because of harder times ahead, versus 34 percent who instead think it will be a time of economic expansion and opportunity

So let’s get this straight, Over seventy percent of the public are dissatisfied with the economy, just over a third of the people are confident in the president’s ability to fix it, and 60% of the folks are battening down the hatches for rough weather.

Yet this man just two months ago won 300+ electoral votes?

What’s more this directly contradicts other aspects of the poll:

on Obama’s qualities as president, he gets the best marks for being easygoing and likeable (61 percent give him high marks here), having the ability to handle a crisis (55 percent), being compassionate (53 percent), being knowledgeable and experienced (53 percent) and being a good commander in chief (51 percent).

Bottom line, if this poll is accurate, the public doesn’t expect President Obama to get anything done, but he’s a nice compassionate guy and that’s all that counts. “Yeah my contractor hasn’t fixed that wall, the roof still leaks and the patches in the wall are failing, but I hate to replace him, he’s SUCH a nice guy.” What does this say about us as a nation?

I’ve said in the past that we get the government we deserve and I really thought we deserved better. But looking at these poll results, we just plain don’t.

As a person of the right I’ve already expressed my opinion of what the House should do in terms of the “Fiscal Cliff” although I absolutely love Glenn Reynolds’ ideas in USA Today which include Simpson Bowels, a plan to taxing the Government revolving Door and particularly his idea for Hollywood:

3. Make Hollywood Pay Its Fair Share. At the DNC, actress Eva Longoria offered to pay more taxes. Well, back during that Eisenhower era that the Dems are so nostalgic for, there was a 20% excise tax on movie theater revenues. It was established to help pay off the post-World War II debt. Now we’re in debt again. Bring it back. For added fun, extend it to DVD sales, movie downloads and music on CDs and over the Internet. As a great man once said, at some point, you’ve made enough money. If we need more tax revenue, who better to pay it than Hollywood fatcats with their swimming pools and private jets?

but while these ideas are creative there is one thing I have no patience for right now and that’s quoting polls right after an election:


A survey of 800 Obama voters, conducted last month by Benenson Strategy Group for the moderate Democratic think tank Third Way and shared first with POLITICO, finds that 96 percent believe the federal deficit is a problem and that 85 percent support increasing taxes on the wealthy.

Yet 41 percent who supported the Democratic incumbent want to get control of the deficit mostly by cutting spending, with only some tax increases, while another 41 percent want to solve it mostly with tax increases and only some spending cuts.

Just 5 percent of Obama supporters favor tax increases alone to solve the deficit, half the number who back an approach that relies entirely on spending cuts.


Meanwhile, according to polling by CNN, registered voters oppose Obamacare by a margin of 10 points — 52 to 42 percent. Independents like Obamacare even less, opposing it by a margin of 22 points — 57 to 35 percent. Clearly, voters didn’t think they were ratifying Obamacare when they pulled the lever for Obama.


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 56% of Likely Voters at least somewhat approve of President Obama’s job performance. Forty-two percent (42%) at least somewhat disapprove.

This is the second day in a row the president’s approval rating has been this high. This is his highest level of approval since being reelected and the highest since the earliest days of his time in office

and Gallup

For the first time in Gallup trends since 2000, a majority of Americans say it is not the federal government’s responsibility to make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage. Prior to 2009, a majority always felt the government should ensure healthcare coverage for all, though Americans’ views have become more divided in recent years.

Now it’s the job of polling companies to poll but I think any argument on what to do at this time based on polls are nonsense.

We just had an election. The result was the status quo. Any poll that says Obama voters want spending cuts is meaningless because those same voters choose the candidate who pushed for tax increases instead, as Mary Katherine Ham put it:

Too bad they all voted for the man who’s offering a rather more unbalanced approach than Republicans.

If the voters wanted a President who wanted spending cuts, if such an issue was overriding to them, they would have acted differently, if they didn’t like the GOP House or the Democrat senate they had a chance less than 30 days ago to do something about it.

They did not.

I objected to the left arguing the GOP should follow their path based on polls in December of 2010, I see no logical reason for any pol to base a decision on a random sample polling when they have the hard data from the only one that matters.

I fully expect Barack Obama and Harry Reid to act based on their victories, I expect the GOP to do the same, what happens next will depend on how clever they are in doing it. As far as the American People are concerned they had better decide to like it.

I haven’t dived deeply into polls much lately because frankly there has been no point, Mitt Romney has this race and baring the “Live Boy Dead girl” scenario it’s not changing. (actually considering Romany’s rep it wouldn’t take a dead girl, a live girl would shatter his clean image completely)

But with one week to go the last gasp effort to rally the MSNBC troops took place today on Morning Joe as they touted the Quinnipiac/CBS?NYT polls Saying Obama is up 5 in Ohio with a week to go.

What really got me was their claim that the Quinnipiac poll was the “most accurate” and again playing the “poll denier” card. I’ve personally found their numbers the least believable and while they were talking about the fights in other states as an alternative to Ohio for Romney I looked up the internals of this Ohio/VA/Florida poll and found this:

After talking about how reliable Quinnipiac is, for 15 minutes and while I was tweeting out the D+8 samples in all of these states D+7 in Florida, they suddenly pivoted as Mark Halperin brought up the D+8 sample and people asked how can this be the case if Mitt is up by huge margins among independents in this poll?

At this time they made the case that the split in the sample defines the electorate while I argue that the accurate of the poll is based on how the splits match the electorate.

Now Polls have limitation based on the response rate and the various methods of getting people to answer but the actual registration and demographics of a state are a reality, they may change over time but they are what they are no matter what but of a sample is used.

In the 7 AM Hour more of the same and in the 8 AM hour they repeated this nonsense. This isn’t a poll, this is a last gasp before Media Credibility day arrives and it becomes impossible to deny what already exists.

That the Morning Joe team is spending a show trying to sell the accuracy of a D+8 poll in Ohio & VA & +7 in Fla to their far left base speaks volumes, here is what it says to me:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

When you are reduced to Chuck Todd arguing body language in private conversations that’s pretty bad, by contrast you have Romney people canvasing during the damn storm.

Folks, there is going to be a turnout effort in Ohio like you’ve never seen. George Cullen has been canvassing door-to-door for the past five weeks. He usually hits about 50 doors a day, but only got 25 under the storm conditions yesterday. He’s a West Point graduate who served six years in the Army, and he says, “The conservatives are very energized.”

Yeah this is a D+8 state SURE! It will be fun to watch these guys next Wednesday.

Update: Just called Robert Stacy McCain on the ground in Ohio and asked about the “Body Language” stuff from Chuck Todd: “It’s crazy” He spoke to Kevin Madden on Sunday one of the top guys in the Romney Campaign after rally. He seemed calm and laid back. He hasn’t seen any of this scary “Body Language” from the Romney folks.

They are still working hard, they have not slacked off nor would anyone expect them to but if our friends on the left want to tell themselves this, as the folks in the south say “Bless their Hearts”.

Update 2: Ed Morrissey elaborates:

In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election. If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead. However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday. In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.

I guess that explains why we didn’t see Ed on the show today. I suspect that message wouldn’t have been all that welcome.

Update 3: Instalanche and Michael Graham who you might recall was the owner of the site “Anybody But Mitt” says what is coming:

I believe we’re on the verge of a solid Romney win for two reasons. One is the objective evidence. The other is the ugly desperation of the Obama campaign in its final days.

and he raises a very important point I never thought of:

The president, on the other hand, has peaked at 47 percent. The Battleground Poll model shows Obama losing 52 percent to 47 percent. Rasmussen daily tracking has Obama losing 49 percent to 47 percent. Pew has him tied: 47 percent to 47 percent. But more important, all the polls show Obama sliding or stuck. None show any upward movement.

Obama supporters are quick to tell you “the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.” Two things: a) that’s what candidates who are behind always say; b) this is election day.

Next Wednesday is going to be fun.

Update 4: Stacy who I so rudely woke up in the first update asks an obvious question:

You might think some reporter at the New York Times, which co-sponsored this poll, would think it worth his while to interview the people at Quinnipiac and ask where they’re getting these weird over-samples of Democrats. What is causing this? How is it that Republicans report greater voting enthusiasm by such large margins, and yet are underrepresented in the poll’s sample? It makes no sense.

I’d love to hear the answer.

BTW PPP poll now being touted, Iowa Sample is D+5 Wisconsin D+4

There are two polls I checked out before leaving the hotel today, both had bad news for the GOP but beyond that there is nothing else in common.

One is the WBUR poll on the Brown Warren Race. The WBUR poll shows a big swing toward Warren, now up by 5.

I’ve looked at the internals of the WBUR poll and as always they are spot on.

Although I want Scott Brown to win, this poll pleases me, Brown has made some big mistakes in the air war (more on that tomorrow) and hopefully this poll will cause him to pivot to a better strategy, the one that gave him the lead in the first place.

You can’t correct a problem unless you know it’s there, this poll informs the Brown campaign of a problem and thus is useful

I like that!

While I like the WBUR poll I absolutely LOVE the Time Magazine poll in Ohio showing Obama up 5.

You might ask: “DaTechGuy have you gone roadtrip crazy? Why would you love a poll showing Romney losing Ohio?”

Simple I looked at the internals of this poll. Unlike most polls the partisan splits are not as obvious, you have to do some math but it’s really quite simple.

They polled 783 people in the unweighed sample 290 Democrats, 220 Republicans and 224 independent. That comes out to a sample that is Dem 37.0% GOP 28.0 and 28.6 Ind That’s D+9

With 742 total respondents you have 273 Dems, 206 GOP and 215 independents that’s a split of 36.7% dems, 27.7% GOP and 28.9 Ind. Again a D+9 split

As Ohio is a +1 GOP state on registration this indicates the MSM has gone back to the “spin the polls” business to keep their people on the registration.

I’m delighted by this, it means the Obama campaign and the MSM has decided there is no way to reverse these numbers short of simple propaganda, this means they will not change their strategy and this race is finished.

Either that or the left is in denial, that’s exactly where I want them to be.

Closing note. In the studio on Morning Joe, Joe & Mika and the Panel are all hanging their hats on the Time Magazine poll, but Chuck Todd in Ohio hedged. Joe & Mika are opinion folk, they can afford to take a side, but Chuck Todd is the chief WH guy, he can’t look a fool

Mitt Romney is going to win this election and it’s not going to be close.

Well I got my man

Don Liddle September 29, 1954 the Polo Grounds

We have talked about the interesting use of polls and stats. This weekend we saw a story that claimed that 1 in 5 self identified conservatives who have already voted in Ohio voted for Barack Obama.

Well, you have to believe it. It’s the truth. CNN said so.

Now I’m sure the results were exactly as they said and one in five of the people who identified themselves as conservatives to CNN voted Obama but I’d be interested in how many people that was? How many “conservatives” were polled? 1000? 100, less…


I’d really like a link there but let me give you two examples so you can understand how you can fudge a statistic without lying.

Here is the pitching line from Game 1 of the 1954 World Series:

If you looked at this box score and was told Sal Maglie came out of a tie game with Runners on 1st & 2nd with nobody out, you would of course assume that Liddle did his job, no hits, no walks, one guy faced, retired him and that was it.

But anyone with even a passing knowledge of baseball knows the reason why the Giants were able to win this in the 10th was because of a fellow named Mays:

Liddle’s stat line while accurate is misleading.

A more modern example came from yesterday when Felix Baumgartner had quite a fall on Sunday.

Now this was one of the most viewed events in history but lets look at this statistically. Based on all of the real world data currently in existence:

1. 100% of all humans who have jumped from 128,000 have survived
2. 100% of all men who have jumped from 128,000 have landed on their feet
3. Statistically a larger percentage of those who have fallen down stairs have suffered fatal injuries than those who have jumped out of a capsule at 128,000 feet above the earth.
4. More human being have died from being beaned at the plate in Major league games than have died from Jumping out of a capsule at 128,000 feet

Make sure you look at some of these interesting polls claims the same way you do those four truthful sentences above.

Update:  Insta-Driscoll-Lance thanks Ed and some shameless plugs

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There is a ton of crowing on the right and worry on the left based on the new PEW poll showing President Obama’s +8 lead turning into a Mitt Romney 4 point lead in just 30 days.

Granted the debate was devastating but even no, especially with polls one finds encouraging, it is VITAL to see if there is some hanky panky going on with the sample.

Last time I hit the PEW poll because the sample was D+9 when I saw the D vs R sample number on this poll I saw something I have never NEVER seen before in a national poll:

A +4 R sample in a national poll? Say What!

That is a 13 point sample swing, 13 points. if you compare this to the Rasmussen numbers this poll slight oversamples the GOP by 1.4 pts. I have never EVER seen a national poll do his and neither have any of you.

So what happens when you skew the sample 13 points in the other direction? Lo and behold the results…move in the other direction.

“But DaTechGuy” you say, How do we know both samples aren’t right? Can’t this isn’t just more people saying they are Republican because they NOW support Romney, you know following the crowd and all that?”

Glad you asked my boy, glad you asked.

Remember last month when I looked at this poll I looked at the numbers concerning who the sampled voted for in 2008, saw the ridiculous gap in the figures and said this:

That’s a 15 point Obama edge in an election that Obama won by 7.2 but it’s even worse because those numbers are based on 86. if you do the full percentages based on 100% of voters it comes out Obama 54.6% (+1.7 over 2008) and McCain 37.2% (-8.6 under 2008) in this sample.

Now you might think Obama is ahead but does anyone ANYONE believe he will do 1.7 point better than 2008. Does anyone ANYONE believe Romney will underperform McCain by 8.6?

Maybe that will fool Talking points Memo, Firedoglake and the like but it won’t fool anyone who can, you know do MATH.

I looked at that same Obama vs McCain question in the new poll. In this sample the 15 point edge is down to 5

And lets do the math again to turn those who voted into the proper percentages

Obama 52.9

(pct of Sample that voted Obama)=42 (obama 08 voters)/85(number who voted)

McCain 43.5

(pct of Sample that voted McCain)=37 (obama 0 8 voters)/85(number who voted)

Ok in this sample the Obama sample matches his 2008 figure EXACTLY, while the McCain sample is under by a mere 2.3 points. Unless all of these people were lying about who they were voting for last time and suddenly got religion we have a sample that is within 2.3% of the actual vote in 2008

So what does this mean?

It means that when you have a poll that closely reflects the actual GOP vs Dem split (within 1.4 points of it if you believe Rasmussen) you get a result that accurately reflects what is going on rather than a Democrat fantasy.

Much as I hate to give solace to Andrew Sullivan, public opinion didn’t swing 12 points in a week, Pew simply took a sample that almost matches the American electorate and we are seeing what was already there, only more so.

Postscript: I follow memeorandum on twitter and as I was finishing this post I saw this jaw dropping tweet:

I followed that tweet to this story at the Washington Post:

If either Pew or Gallup kept their “sample balance” constant, there would be far less of a shift in their headline numbers. Poll watchers need to closely assess both trend-lines as the election draws near.

That’s exactly right but wasn’t that the same argument I’ve been making right along? The argument that got all of us called Poll “Truther” and poll “Deniers” and “Conspiracy Theorists”?

All I have to say is Pew, welcome to Realville!

Exit Question: Is this sample Pew’s attempt to correct itself pre-election or will see a new poll just before the day re-skewed to try and create the Obama comeback?

Update: Twitchy notices

After screening out respondents who are unlikely to vote, Pew was left with a sample of likely voters that was R+3, according to Chuck Todd.

If the sample in the Pew poll is skewed toward Republicans, it probably is not off by much. A month ago, Rasmussen reported a 2-point edge for Republicans in party ID. In Wisconsin’s recall election a few months ago, the partisan breakdown was R+1, according to exit polls. Party ID was tied 35-35 in 2010.

But we’re glad to see liberals acknowledge that polls can be skewed and that it is possible for a sample to over-represent members of one party or the other. Maybe Obama supporters won’t call us insane the next time we question a D+13 sample.

Chuck Todd? Chuck Todd is now a poll truther? I didn’t see him at the meeting, does he know the secret handshake?

Update 2: Althouse watches Sully’s meltdown and figures it out:

Sorry, but it’s hard not to see this as a lot of posing. A set up for the big announcement that Obama is back. If Obama is any good at all in the next debate or the one after that, we’ll be told the man is a miracle.

Update 3:
That new Pennsylvania Poll that has Romney down 2 pts has some interesting splits:

If you include leaners then it’s one point closer.

As for registration

I don’t have a lot of faith in Pennsylvania, there will be plenty of walking around money in the cities and the suspension of the ID law for this election means the left has one last chance to do what they do best. 2016 will be different but I don’t have high hopes here.

As for Michigan the internals of that poll aren’t out yet but the last one was D+5 be very interested to see what this one is.

Update 4: Michigan internals are now out here is the sample:

So the sample is D+5 has Barack Obama up 3 48-45. Last month when the numbers showed Obama up 10 47-37 the sample was….D+5

be afraid Democrats, be very afraid.

Update Bottom: Oh and a reminder, the Washington Post is a multi-million dollar corporation and the people they pay just figured out poll samples matter.

I am a guy who since the Obama years makes his entire living from Ads and Tip Jar hitters and have been saying this for months. If you think that my analysis of polls that the Washington Post finally has figured out, is worth something I would be most grateful if you were to hit the DaTipJar to help keep this stuff coming

And of course Tip Jar hitter get the codes for my Subscriber only videos the newest once comes out tomorrow.

Earlier this week I got an E-mail from the great Fausta.

I gave her a call and we talked about a poll she wanted my opinion on. It is the Latino Decisions polls and she thought the numbers were kind of weird.

I took a look at the poll and it didn’t take long to notice some ….interesting issues to wit:

This is the sixth release of an 11-week tracking poll of Latino registered voters. Each week impreMedia and Latino Decisions will release a new rolling cross-section of 300 completed interviews with Latino registered voters across all 50 states. Battleground interviewers are combined across all six weeks and are 267 completed interviews, with Florida accounting for the largest share of battleground states.

So the battle ground figures in this poll are actually mini samples taken over six weeks while opinions might be changing. That’s bad enough but consider one more thing:

Battleground states: FL, NV, CO, AZ, OH, NH, NC, VA, IA, MO (all 7 points or smaller margin in current presidential polls)

Forget the insanity of trying to extrapolate the latino vote over fifty states based on a 300 person sample. Lets look at the 10 battleground states 267 answers over 10 states.

I would just say the numbers but I think I can explain this with a visual much more effectively:

And yes people are actually falling for this stuff.

Update: Welcome Green Room & Faustina readers. Don’t forget there are still free tickets available for my 100th show extravaganza (we’ll feed you) My analysis of what has really been going on overall (quoted by Rush) is available here and don’t forget for as little as the price of a single Starbucks coffee you can get access to my subscriber/tip jar hitter only commentaries. A teaser here.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll on political affiliation and there is good news and bad news for our friends on the left:

The good news is that after a very bad August Democrat party affiliation has not only improved but is at its highest rating of the year at 34.2% of the voting pubic. That is the best figure for Democrats since November of 2011 which was the last time they lead in the party affiliation numbers

The bad news for our friends on the left is that even through the GOP has dropped from its all time high of 37.6% last month, the 36.8% figure is still higher than any other figure since December of 2010. Additionally the September figure is a full 3.7% over September of 2010 and the same figure in 2010 month in 3.4% over September of 2008

Meanwhile even the modest increase democrats puts them a full 7.2 points behind election day 2008 but a half a point behind election day 2010 the worst drubbing the party has taken since Reagan’s re-election in 1984 or the Gingrich revolution of 1994

Put simply for all the grand pronouncements of the MSM over the last few weeks, for all the crowing of polls and the declarations that Mitt Romney is in bad shape with two months to go till election day party affiliation in the united states continues to be majority GOP and by a 2.6% margin.

What does that mean to national polling? That means if this poll is anywhere near accurate (and as I’ve already shown in trends it has matched the election right along since 2004, Democrats in General and Barack Obama in particular are in not only in serious trouble, but if the gap between the GOP and Democrat match they best gains of the year for the next two months till election day they will STILL be behind the GOP

BTW if you won’t believe Rasmussen will you believe the liberal Guardian Newspaper

A Guardian survey of six of the most crucial swing states upon which the outcome of the presidential ballot is likely to depend has found that new voter registrations recorded between January and August this year are markedly down compared with the same period in 2008. The drop is particularly pronounced in several states for the Democrats – a likely indication that Barack Obama’s re-election team has been unable to match the exceptional levels of voter excitement generated by his candidacy four years ago.

The six states included in the Guardian survey – Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia – are all being bitterly fought over by Obama and his challenger Mitt Romney. Backed by their respective Democratic and Republican parties, both candidates have sought to maximise turnout by running registration drives in an attempt to attract new voters to their cause.

At first I wouldn’t believe, because I was a Norman I wouldn’t let myself believe…

Olivia DeHavilland The Adventures of Robin Hood 1938

JOURNALIST: Public opinion-made to order.

DIZ*: Yeah, Taylor-made.

Mr. Smith Goes to Washington 1938

This morning I briefly linked to Ann Althouse’s piece as an update to my bit on polling and narratives, but the more I think about it the more I see real significance in her blog post that deserves attention.

Let’s start with the title:

What’s the birther/truther word for those who think political polls have become, basically, propaganda?

Right off we see an equivalence between “birthers” (those who think President Obama was not born in Hawaii) and Truthers (Those who believe we attacked ourselves on 9/11 as part of a grand conspiracy) and those who doubt the polls,  A person not reading the rest of this would naturally think this post was dismissive of those who question the pollsters

Pollers? Pollemicists? Poller bears? The Poller Opposites? Help me out.

It sounds like she is going to have some fun with those rubes who doubt, Johnathan Chait would be happy

I need a good coinage for the condition I’ve found myself lapsing into.

…right up until the point when it becomes apparent that she is one of those people

Here’s the latest symptom.

Note the use of the word, “symptom” she is describing a disease, a problem something that must be cured

I think I saw somewhere this morning — on Drudge? — that CNN had the presidential race suddenly tightening up, in advance of the polls.  And my first thought — I just blurted it out loud

Again, note the phrase:  “Just blurted it out loud“, no careful consideration, no weighing of evidence she just reacted .

— was: They’re saying it’s close right in advance of the debate so they can say, after the debate, that Obama went up. He won the debate.

Ann Althouse is a prominent law professor, an academic, she’s not just some Cheetos eating blogger.  Law professors just don’t do this kind of thing.  She continues:

I went over to Drudge to look for what I’d seen, and I didn’t find that but I found:

Under oath, Edwards pollster admits polls were ‘propaganda’…

POLL: Plurality of Americans believe POLLS biased for Obama…

Althouse is a lawyer, he understand the difference between circumstantial evidence and admissible evidence.

And here’s what I remember seeing this morning that brought on my pollemic

Again pollemic a word signifying something unreasonable.

: “New CNN/ORC poll less skewed for Barack Obama than the previous one.”
The survey, that includes a smaller eight percent over-sample of Democratic voters, has Obama leading by a 49 percent to 47 percent edge….

The news here is not that this poll is slightly skewed, but compared to the 15.4 percent skewed in favor of the Democrats in the controversial September 10 CNN/ORC poll, this latest one is based on a far less skewed sample.

Note she states as fact that the previous poll was badly skewed, (and yes it was) and she points out that the subsequent poll is skewed “far less”

And then comes the full Maid Marian, the moment of realization

See? I think they adjust the skew to get the result that suits the propaganda purpose, and they’re temporarily making the race look tight to make the debate seem super-important. (That’s good for CNN’s ratings, so there’s a commercial, nonpolitical reason too for poll fakery.) Then they can make a show of breaking the news that Obama got big debate bounce.

Now why is this any more important than any other, take a look at the language here, Ann Althouse is an Obama voter from 2008 who insists that given the same information at the time she still would have voted for him, but month after month she has seen what she has seen, in fact during the entire Scott Walker business she was in the middle of it. Being a reasonable person she didn’t want to believe, she didn’t want to think that we had reached this point in our political and media discourse, but she saw first had the difference between reality as it is and reality as our media present it, till finally at an instinctive level when exposed to it she can’t restrain herself anymore. No matter how much she would rather it not be so, she finds herself crying aloud like the child in the farie tale: “The Emperor has no Clothes”

I think there are millions of Ann Althouse/Maid Marions who have come to realizations that they would rather have not over the last few years. And I think the media has only itself to blame.

Ann Welcome to realville.

Yesterday I saw a poll out of New Hampshire, that was so unbelievable no incredible in its results that I thought it impossible that a TV station or a college would report it.

With one month remaining before the November 6 election, Barack Obama has opened up a statistically significant lead over Mitt Romney in the battleground state of New Hampshire. In the most recent Granite State Poll, 52% of likely New Hampshire voters plan to vote for Obama, 37% say they will support Romney,

There were so incredible that WMUR the TV station that commissioned the poll led their analysis thus:

The latest WMUR Granite State Poll is either wildly off or we will look back five weeks from now on Election Day and point to this date as the moment we knew Mitt Romney lost New Hampshire.

They are hedging on their own poll. My first thought was bad party splits, I was rather shocked to see an equal party metric in this poll. As this so greatly contradicts what I’ve seen on the ground I continued to look at the numbers and found these figures on the 2008 election within the sample:

215 McCain Palin Voters
309 Obama Biden Voters
14 Other
38 Did not vote 2008

That totals up to 576 people in the sample. How does that split? Here is the math

215/576 = 37.3% McCain Palin
309/576 = 53.6% Obama Biden
14/576 = 2.4% Other
38/576 = 6.5% Did not vote

Difference 53.6- 37.3= 16.3

So you have a sample with a bias of 16.3 points in terms of 2008 voters that is now +15, that would indicate a slight loss of support, but strangely enough they didn’t include a question on their votes in 2010. Just to remind you here is what happened in the state house that year:

Maybe it’s just me but I think this poll might be a tad more informative if it included how the respondents voted in 2010

It’s worth noting that a previous poll from the same group in Aug had a much different sample

McCain Palin 220/529 = 41.5
Obama Biden 259/529= 48.9%
Other 21/529 = 3.9%
Did not vote 29/529= 5.4%

Do you see the magic trick, you play with a sample and suddenly you have a trend. As I predicted after the booing God debacle:

Do not be surprised if there is a negative bounce from this convention or a poll released with a Dem +6-12 in order to hide just how bad things are.

And that’s what we’ve seen, polls so skewed that we have a convention bounce supposedly from a Clinton Speech that nobody watched because it was opposite a football game.

But even such BS can’t go on for long, particularly when people are finally catching on with the poll manipulation.

So what is the Liberal media et/al to do?

Well if it’s harder to see Romney behind everywhere put out a national poll that is close (+3 Obama with a +8 Obama 2008 sample & +6 D sample) to show our bona fides then as it’s harder to sell Romney behind everywhere in Florida suddenly usa a D+2 sample instead of the +9, in Virgina go D+5 instead of D + ungodly while in Ohio the state we’ve been saying Romney HAS to win we show Romney down 11 with a sample that is 50% dem and 39% +11.D and violá we have exactly what we need to be credible:

A more “balanced” poll showing a slight Romney trend without losing the “Mitt in Trouble” narrative.

The best part of it for the MSM? The media can by playing the sample game can generate the trend they want and will do so as long as they believe they can affect the results. The moment they decide it can’t be pulled off will be the dawn of Media Credibility day when the mission changes as it did the day before the 2010 elections:

So instead their new mission is to be perceived as actually reporting news rather than spinning it. Thus comes media credibility day, the day the press decides to act like actual reporters instead of liberal advocates, it will last long enough for them to claim that they called the election correctly…

And the moment the election is over

…then it will be back to the MSM that we all know and…well that we all know.

That will be the tell.

Update: Ann Althouse got there before me:

Thanks to some upload problems with some of my videos from the Ma-3 debate between Jon Golnik and Rep Nikki Tsongas I ended up missing most of Morning Joe, and due to some arrangements for my 100th Show event (You’re invited ticket at the bottom of this post BTW) I missed most of Morning Joe yesterday and with the big debate in Lowell between Scott Brown I only had time to note in passing the oddities of the latest Washington Post poll as an update to an already written piece:

If you are going to make a declaration in your poll you need to provide at least the cross tabs to be checked, like the Boston Globe poll.

Apparently while I was busy shooting photos, interviewing folks at the debate and etc a huge national debate over that Washington Post poll took place

Chuck Todd was ridiculing people who believe there is a media conspiracy. Meanwhile, his own network has dragged its feet on coverage of the administration’s disastrous handling of Libya and, well, he works for MSNBC.

That doesn’t bother me all that much in once sense, after all if media of national standing (or whatever standing MSNBC has) are answering you, that says where the debate is, but then this morning as I went through the posts I needed to do, I saw this bit revelation via Red State from the Post:

Out of 929 registered voters in the new poll, 161 live in one of these eight states, with a margin of sampling error of eight points.

Erick Erickson does the basic math

In short, the Washington Post conducted a national poll and discovered that 161 of those surveyed lived in swing states. Charitably — and Cohen does not break it down — that would work out to 20 voters polled in each of 8 swing states. TWENTY!!!

So there’s an 11 point gap among 161 people with a margin of error of around 8%. But the Washington Post reported this as a fact

So let me get this straight, the media that has called bloggers members of the Cheetos Brigade as Joe Scarborough did, the media that says we are in a “parallel universe“, the same media that called us conspiracy theorists when we dared point out the mathematics problems with the polls, some even admitted by pollsters. The same media that pooh poohed the nine year stats of voter registration , the media that has maximum access to the voters and large corporations to back them up.

This same media is using their national microphone to report as fact an 11 point lead for Barack Obama in swing states based on a twenty voters per state?

Pardon my language but ARE YOU FRIGGIN KIDDING ME?

Yes I’m a blogger, yes I don’t have a degree in journalism, writing or even English (BS Computer Science Minor American History) Yes I’m actually typing this in my bed wearing my underwear as per the stereotype because that’s when I scan the news in the morning and do my writing before I get myself ready to go out and do everything else.

But I damn well know you can’t judge a lead in swing states based on a sample so small per state that it couldn’t fill the 5th street diner.

Erickson again

Perhaps instead of being insulting, he, a former staffer for Tom Harkin’s Presidential campaign and whose wife was or is a Democratic operative, should acknowledge conservative distrust of the media and try to explain how the polls are shaped, skewed, weighted or not, and the general methodology.

It is my nature to believe the best of people but if anyone ANYONE actually believes that this media is not collectively trying to give this race to Barack Obama they are suckers.

And with all due respect to the opinion of Gov Christie I think it is vital to call these guys out on it, not because of a single election but because it is damaging to our democracy and to the first amendment to ignore this.

I’m a Republican, I’m with Mitt Romney, but when, in my opinion I thought Mitt was the weakest of the GOP candidates I called him out on it, and took flack for it from my side.

I’m with Scott Brown, but when I saw the WBUR poll that gave Elizabeth Warren a lead correctly reflected state voter registration I complemented them on it and took flack for it from my side.

I’m with Jon Golnik but when I said he did not win the debate Sunday against Nikki Tsongas I took flack for it from my side.

I could have ignored these things and wrote on something else but I said them anyway because I live in realville and THESE THINGS ARE TRUE!

My name is on this blog, I owe it to my name to say what I see and think is accurate.

I live off of the tip jar hits and subscriptions people make here and off the ads people buy, I owe it to those people to give them not just a quality product but a product as accurate as I can based on my observations and reporting.

I am a partisan and want my side to win, I owe them a fair critique so if they know how to fix problems they might have so they can win.

If you are a member of the MSM and you have a byline I don’t mind if you have a bias, I don’t even have a problem if you want Obama to win, but I do mind if you for the sake of that bias and that desire to re-elect Obama, report without question bad data or skewed data and then go after those who call you on it.

That is simply disgraceful, dishonest and dishonorable and you should be ashamed of yourselves for prostituting yourself in this way.

Until you change your ways, don’t you dare DARE treat me and my friends in a condescending way.

As I mentioned I live off of my tip jar hits and subscribers, if you think my coverage is worth it, I would highly appreciate it if you considered kicking in to help pay the bills. The car that took me to the Brown Warren debate goes into the shop tomorrow and I had to pull a grand from the business to cover basic house bills this month, any amount would be appreciated

150 Subscribers at the lowest level pays the monthly house bills, 300 allows me to start rebuilding savings and 500 will pay for travel to cover national issues

And if you are in the Worcester area on the 20th, join me for the 100th show and the brunch to follow.

UPDATE: The worst poll EVAH! These guys are trying their best do hide it but I’m sorry if you poll a sample with a +17.2 point advantage of people who voted Obama in 2008, a result that gets you a +15 Obama lead in 2012 is not a surprise it’s almost a foregone conclusion. Note the same poll in Aug that showed Obama up +3 had a +7.3 Obama 2008 vs McCain 2008 voter split

The Simpsons have been on TV for a very long time. A lot of people have seen this scene of Homer voting for Obama:

But registering for McCain

And while 29 Million plus have seen this fictional account there is a little bit of reality that has not gotten the same attention:

For some reason this video hasn’t gone viral. Funny I would think this would be of interest to the news media, but then again there are a lot of interesting things that don’t get a lot of play like this interesting tidbit of information:

You read that correctly: In any attempted poll or survey, only 9% of attempted contacts come back with an actual response.

That means 91% of sampled households are NOT having their opinions recorded by pollsters.

Now personally I think not answering polls are foolish but the math is the math and reality is reality, so when I see polls the the Washington Post poll that says this:

This time, the issue isn’t sampling — at least not in the national polling. The D/R/I is only a D+3 at 33/30/33, a pretty reasonable model for this year’s election. That’s right in between the 2008 and 2010 exit polling results.

The big gap on swing states makes less sense, though. The biggest non-swing states should favor Obama — California, New York, and Illinois, with Texas being the only large non-swing state that is firmly in the Republican column. Romney will win the South easily, but Obama gets the whole West Coast and most of New England, too. Without a chance to see the samples in each state and the demographic breakout, I’m a little skeptical that Romney could be losing by eleven in the swing states but only by two nationwide.

If you are going to make a declaration in your poll you need to provide at least the cross tabs to be checked, like the Boston Globe poll.

I crunched the numbers and found the sample split thus D-36.5% R-14.2 Other -48.3%.

The Democrat numbers match registration but the GOP numbers are up 3 points from the latest state figures, while it is certainly possible that the GOP has gained a bit (after all when you are as low as the party is you can only go up) this poll certainly has not played games with registration numbers to get Liz Warren ahead. If that is the case Scott Brown might need to do some tweaking (I’m suggested some already)

Reality reality involves looking at things as they are, for example the one commodity that neither campaign can get more of before election day is Time and that time has to be spent where support is needed, thus the question.

Why is Obama postponing a trip to Columbus, Ohio to come to Madison, Wisconsin the day after the first debate?

This is for all the marbles, does a candidate really waste a day that he can’t replace in this way?

If you want to dispute my take on the polls, fine make your case, but the math is the math and the reality is the reality and don’t think for one moment that either the Obama campaign or the Romney Campaign doesn’t know where this race is.

Don’t watch what they say, watch what they DO. That is the only way you can afford a home in realville.

Update: And Stacy McCain tells you, there are papers in Realville too.

Update 2: Speaking of realville, Brian Preston finds PPP doesn’t have an apartment in that town in North Carolina.

How does PPP arrive at this 48-48 tie? Looking at page three, we find the answer: Democrats make up 48% of the respondents, while Republicans only make up 34%.

Is it possible that Democrats outnumber Republicans by 14%, and will vote that way on November 6, in North Carolina?

Sure, it’s possible. It’s also possible that space monkeys will descend from their base on one of Jupiter’s moons to declare a cheese war on the US Virgin Islands tomorrow.

Well that would explain the lack of security in Libya, the administration is preparing for the Virgin Islands Cheese wars.

Well NBC has a new poll out and Morning Joe is simply salivating:

President Barack Obama leads Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, and the two are locked in tight contests in Nevada and North Carolina, according to a new series of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls released Thursday.

Obama is ahead of Romney, 51 percent to 44 percent, among likely voters in New Hampshire. He also edges Romney in Nevada and North Carolina, but within the margin of error.

In Nevada, Obama gets the support of 49 percent of likely voters and Romney gets 47 percent. In North Carolina, it’s Obama at 48 percent and Romney at 46 percent. (Among registered voters in all three states, Obama’s lead expands to 8 points in New Hampshire, 4 points in North Carolina, and a wider 7 points in Nevada.)

I hate to put a damper on our friends on the left, even those who consider us “Poll deniers” or “Poll truthers” but as a resident of Realville I look at reality and here is what I see in this NBC/Marist poll, lets start with New Hampshire:

That’s a 46-40 split in a state where just two years ago Kelly Ayotte won a senate seat by 23 points.

And supposedly this is the case even though this very same poll show the right track wrong track numbers thus:

Because when people think the country is going in the wrong direction by 7 pts 51-44 their reaction is ALWAYS “stay the course”.

Last NH thought, before you start screaming how Obama won New Hampshire in 2008 lets take a look at what happened in 2010:

Yeah that’s a state where the 2008 paradigm is in play

Now lets try North Carolina that supposedly has a +2 Obama figure:

Here is the right track/wrong track

Yeah 41-54 right track wrong track SURE these guys are winning, here is the partisan split:

48-42 plus 6 Dem sample in North Carolina, now lets look at what happened in NC in 2010

Yeah that is another state that is going all 2008 in November:

Now lets look at Nevada, again lets start with Right Track / Wrong Track:

14 points, Obama is up 2 with a right track/wrong track deficit of 14 points.

Lets look at the partisan split:

47-42 plus 5 dem. now lets see what Nevada did in 2010

The GOP picked up two seats in 2010 enough and the Governor’s mansion enough to sustain any veto during the election where Harry Reid managed a massive turnout to save his seat. Interestingly enough while 52% of the vote was cast by the GOP the Democrats kept a majority.

But hey the still held the legislature in a GOP wave election, does that mean Obama is actually going to do well in the statewide vote. I’m glad you asked. Interestingly there was another election in Nevada on September 13th 2011. An election for the Nevada 2nd district surely this would show the power of Barack Obama…

…or not.

But this STILL doesn’t mean that these polls are off after all we have a record of polling accurate polling in Nevada right? PPP did a poll just the day before the election and it showed Amodei winning:

Ok Sure we showed a 13 point margin when the election had a 22 pt spread but we had the winner right and THAT means our polling is accurate!


This is what we in Realville call “Math” if Eugene Robinson wants to call it a conspiracy theory and Morning Joe wants to make fun of it, bless their hearts as they say down south.

The data is the data and all the pretending otherwise from people who didn’t see 2010 coming and insisted the GOP were fools to support Pat Toomey or Marco Rubio doesn’t change it.

Update: Yup the focus on registration in samples is a conspiracy theory, it’s so ridiculous so foolish and so delusional that Gallup finds it necessary to reassure folks:

The discussion of the party identification composition of poll samples comes up in every presidential election with which I’ve been involved. Interested observers often opine that when a given poll shows that Candidate X is ahead, it cannot be correct because there is a higher percentage of voters who identify with Candidate X’s party in the sample than there should be, based on comparison to some previous standard.

There are several reasons why this is a faulty approach to evaluating a poll’s results.

He makes his case and I encourage you all to read it and make up your own minds, but there was one bit that jumped out at me that really gives away the game:

Now if a given poll in Ohio in this election shows Obama with a 10-percentage-point lead, one should just ask, “How likely is it that Obama would be ahead by 10 points if he won by five points in 2008?” — forgetting party identification, which we assume is going to be higher for the Democratic Party if Obama is ahead, anyway.

It’s totally backwards, people join or leave a party based on changes in what they think or believe, that the cause of a voting pattern, this gentleman treats it as an effect.

Now I don’t claim to be a professional poll guy. I don’t work at Gallup and the only people paying me are my advertisers and tip jar hitters. I trust my readers. If you decide he’s right and I’m all wet, that’s fine, if you think I’m right that’s fine too. I’m more than happy to see what happens when the votes are counted and we find out who is right.

But the math is the math and no computer model can change it.

Today on DaTechGuy on DaRadio 10 AM EST we are talking the Polls and the so interesting samples that the media is Ignoring

At 10:30 we’ll be talking to Tom of VA-Right who did the work the MSM doesn’t want to do on the Polls in Virginia

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As everyone knows I’ve been hitting the polls lately for their simply outrageous attempts to create a false narrative by playing games with Demographic results.

In the last 48 hours two polls have come out concerning the Scott Brown Race in Massachusetts with diametrically different results, one by the liberal leaning WBUR a public radio Station out of Boston and once by the Boston Herald the right leaning Newspaper of the city.

WBUR puts Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren up by 5, The Herald puts Senator Scott Brown up by 6. That is fully a 11 point different in two polls released a day apart. Obviously they BOTH can’t be reflective of the State as a whole so lets look at them one at a time:

WBUR: This is a real difference from the last poll I looked at that showed a dead heat so when this poll came out I was ready for the worst and went straight for the party splits.

The Good news is finally FINALLY I’m seeing a poll where the splits match the demographics of the state.  The unweighed poll numbers were as follows:

Total 507 voters

Democrats polled 185 37%
GOP  60 12%
Unenrolled or other 262 51%

That’s a D+25 split which if this was a national poll would be a complete joke (and not quite unexpected considering the Whoppers we’ve seen lately) but in Massachusetts a state with under 5 GOP members in it’s senate and where getting to 25% representation in the House was an ACHIEVEMENT that’s not a joke, that’s the reality It matches up with the population based on the official state numbers from earlier this year.

WBUR’s poll gets Warren up 5 by the following results:

Sen Scott Brown:

With Unenrolleds (Independents):   51% electorate Brown up 49-35 (ind) Brown gets 24.99 vote

With the GOP:   12% electorate Brown up 85-9 (r)  10.2 vote

With Democrats:  37% electorate Warren up 71-15 (D) 5.55 vote

That adds up to 40.5 % of the vote for Scott Brown

On the other end Former Obama Administration Official Warren breakdown adds up to 17.85 (Ind) + 1.08 (GOP) + 26.27 (DEM)

That adds up to 45.2%

These numbers match the polling and demographics so I find this poll:   Credible


Boston Herald:

Now lets look at the Herald poll that has Brown up by 6 numbers

This poll shows Sen Brown up Buy 6 points among registered voters & 4 points among likely voters. It’s the first poll I’ve ever seen showing a Republican doing WORSE among likely voters than registered ones.

Sen Scott Brown takes:   93% of GOP & Leaners 58% of Independents & 20% of Democrats.
Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren takes:   7% of Republicans & Leaners, 35% of Independents & 73% of Democrats

The results are dramatically different vs the WBUR poll Brown’s share of the GOP vote is 8pts higher Warren’s 2 pts lower, With independents Brown is +9 in the Herald with Warren flat & with Dems Brown’s Share jumps +5 pts while Warren’s is +2

That accounts for part of the difference but lets look at the all important demographic split

lets focus on that highlighted area

This represents a split of +17 Dems without leaners and +20 with people who lean one way or the other. This however doesn’t match the latest demographics of the state. While the GOP figure is about right the Democrat figure is of 28% among likely voters is a full 9 points lower than it should be.

The Herald poll indicates Sen Brown winning one in five democrats so that under-sampling has a lesser effect but even so under-sampling by 9 points?   It just won’t do. If you adjust based on that under-sampling that Turns the Sen Brown 4-6 pt lead into a Warren 1-3 pt lead.

Thus I must dub the Herald poll:  Not Credible

I’d like to Believe the Herald poll, I really would and I’m aware of a shift of people away from the Democrat party to the ranks of the Unenrolled but without solid data to back it up I have to believe the WBUR poll over the Herald one. Moreover several anecdotal bits of evidence have cropped up lately that suggest Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren has improved her standing which makes the WBUR poll more believable to me (more on that tomorrow).

But “DaTechGuy” you Might say, “You’re a Republican, you want Brown to win.  It’s your duty to back up the poll to help swing the momentum.”

That may be the MSM way but I say balderdash! The way to win a campaign is to look at it honestly and base your actions accordingly.  If I am winning I want to know it so I can keep exploiting my success, if I’m not I want to know it so I can correct any problems or mistakes.

Self delusion is no way to win an election, a lesson the MSM will learn nationally in November.

Update:  Sharp eyed readers will notice the original name for this post was “WBUR shows how it’s done”.  I started writing it yesterday but crashed on the couch exhausted before I finished it.  When I woke up at 2:30 AM the Herald poll was out and decided to shift the focus to a comparison and simply forgot to rename the internal title.

Update 2:  Today new fox poll that is supposedly “devastating” to the Romney Campaign Parisian splits Ohio D +6  Virginia D +5 Florida D +5 Ho Hum, more of the same.

Update 3:  it is spelled Pew but perhaps it should be spelled PU.  Pew reports Obama +8 Sample D +9 the biggest joke of the poll is this:

That’s a 15 point Obama edge in an election that Obama won by 7.2 but it’s even worse because those numbers are based on 86.  if you do the full percentages based on 100% of voters it comes out Obama 54.6% (+1.7 over 2008) and McCain 37.2% (-8.6 under 2008) in this sample.

Now you might think Obama is ahead but does anyone ANYONE believe he will do 1.7 point better than 2008.  Does anyone ANYONE believe Romney will underperform McCain by 8.6?

Maybe that will fool Talking points Memo, Firedoglake and the like but it won’t fool anyone who can, you know do MATH.

German Propaganda Officer: It’s the same dull stuff we’ve been doing. I wish we had something different, some kind of surprise

Leslie Smythe Bedows: What if we told the the truth about the Eastern Front?

German Propaganda Officer: I said surprise not shock.

Hogan’s Heroes “Who Stole my Copy of Mein Kampf?” 1969

There are two new polls the MSM is crowing about tonight.  Well when I say “new” I’m certainly not talking about the methodology.  Looks like the same old thing to me.  Lets start with the NBC WSJ poll:

In the presidential horse race, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden get the support of 50 percent of likely voters, while Romney and running mate Paul Ryan get 45 percent.

As you might guess the demographics of this poll just happens to be +5 Dem even though as I’ve already mentioned Democrats have trailed in registration the entire year with an avg deficit of 2.5 pts.

Such a national sample transforms a 50-45 Obama lead into a 52-43 Romney lead but when you look at the poll results it actually worse than it looks

Let’s look at how the people who answered voted in 2008

Ok 10% say they didn’t vote so to figure out the percentage these numbers represent we divide the figures by 90 removing the voters who didn’t vote and viola

Barack Obama 45/90 = 50%
John McCain 37/90 = 41%
Someone Else 4/90 = 4%
Not Sure 4/90 = 4%

Vs Actual Results
Barack Obama 52.9
McCain 45.7
Other 1.4

OK assuming these people are NOT lying not only do they oversample independents by 6.6 points (I suggest there are a lot of Obama voters hiding there but I have no proof) but based on 2008 figures Obama is undersampled by 2.9 points while McCain is undersampled by 4.7.

Does anyone seriously think the GOP voting sample has dropped 4.7 points from 2008 levels.  Is anyone ANYONE willing to make that case?

In Virgina the Washington Post manages to get even worse

With just seven weeks of campaigning left before the November election, President Obama holds a clear lead over Mitt Romney in Virginia, buoyed by growing optimism about the state of the country and fueled by a big gender gap working in his favor, according to a new Washington Post poll.

Obama leads his Republican rival 52 percent to 44 percent among likely voters. Among all registered voters, the president leads 50 percent to 43 percent, a margin identical to that recorded in a survey in early May. That indicates that Romney has made up little ground during four months of intense advertising and campaign visits.

Wow an 8 point lead, Romney doesn’t have a chance…until you look at the partisian split:

A +8 Dem split in a +3 GOP state would seemingly turn a 8 pt dem lead into a 3 pt GOP advantage but believe it or not again it’s worse than it looks.

The party split in VA is 39-36 in favor of the GOP so that means that while this poll undersamples dems by 4 points (11%) They under sample republicans by 15 points a full 38% percent

There are a lot of words you can use to describe this kind of poll but if you have an honest bone in your body “News” isn’t one of them.

For the last two weeks we have been treated to the narrative that Barack Obama is surging at the polls, Mitt Romney is in trouble and unless there is a massive change in direction it is all over.

Simply put this is a lie.

Of all the polls you have seen, there is one poll that has gotten no attention, it is a poll that has been taken monthly, it is a poll that Doug Ross spotted and promoted on his site. It is the Rasmussen Poll of party identification.

They have party identification results online dating back to 2004. Here are the 2012 numbers through August

That shows a GOP advantage in registration this year but you might say: “Hey, Datechguy, you’ve been hitting polls all year, why can’t THIS poll be wrong?”

That’s a good question, we can answer it by asking another question: Does this poll of party identification correspond with the results of national elections?

Lets take a look:

2004 George Bush wins re-election

The closest the Republicans come to democrats in registration is Sept at a .6 in September. On election day Democrats had a registration advantage of 1.5. Yet not only did George Bush win re-election with that disadvantage but the GOP took 3 senate seats and 3 House seats over 2002.

2006 Midterms Revenge of the left:

In January the GOP was the closest they would be .6 off but by November the Mark Foley scandal was still big news and on election day Democrats had a spread of 6.1 points. This carried them to a net gain of 31 house seats & 5 seats.

2008 The coming of Barack Obama

The year of hope and change. The closest split was 5.6 in January & in September after the Palin Pick but by election day not only was the split 7.6 for Dems but for the first time (Feb) A party had identification over 40%. The Democrats kept that number over 40% 8 out of 12 months that year reaching a high of 41.7% the largest number in this 9 year sample for either party. With these figures it’s should be no surprise that Barack Obama win but Democrats picked up 8 seats in the Senate & 21 Seats in the house.

2010 Midterms The Rise of the Tea Party

2010 proved conclusively that timing is everything for the first time in the nine years, the GOP took an advantage in poll registration from -2.9 to plus 1.3 in one month, and that month was November.

Additionally the 37.0 figure for the GOP was the highest for the party since Dec 2004. At the very same time the 33.7 figure in December was the lowest figure for democrats EVER.

Correspondingly the GOP gained 6 Senate seats (not counting the Jan Scott Brown Race) and in the house picked up 63 seats more than democrats picked up in 2006 & 2008 combined.

These results since 2004 seem to indicate the poll is reliable. So what has it said lately, lets start with 2011 lets look at 2011

This is the year of the great fights between the GOP House & the president and it’s the most interesting year of the lot. The lead changes hands 6 times during the year as the country tries to figure out what it wants and for the first time EVER Other was in the lead, (Aug) tied with the GOP (33.5) ahead of democrats (33.0) other was ahead of the GOP 3 times in 2007.

Now lets look at that 2012 chart again:

At no time during the year do the Democrats have a registration advantage vs republicans, the gap closes in July & re-separates in August. The low point for the GOP was July for 34.9 and the high August at 37.6 For democrats the high was 34.0 in June & July the low was 32.4 in Feb

What does this mean for November? It means a lot.

The Democrats won 2 election in this period 2006 & 2008 with a 6.9 advantage in 2006 & a 7.6 advantage in 2008.

There is no example of the Democrats winning since 2004 with an advantage less that 6.9.

The GOP won two elections in this period 2004 with a -1.6 disadvantage & 2010 with a 1.3 advantage. This means the GOP has proven it can win with not only a small lead but with an actual disadvantage. Additionally with an advantage of only 1.3 they pulled off the biggest house swing in my lifetime.

Can these number change? Well the biggest 1 month swing I’ve seen is 4.2 Oct-Nov in 2010 the biggest 3 month swing was Dec 2007-Feb 2008 6.9 in favor of Democrats at the rise of Obama.

Tell me with the economy in the tank, and the new trouble in the Middle East, what is the prospect of a swing of that size to the Democrats happening again right now? Moreover even if that record registration swing repeated itself right now this would give democrats an advantage of only 2.6 points.

I’ve covered a lot of national polls on this site over the last year and all those polls ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX have one thing in common.

Not a single one of those polls had a sample with a GOP advantage.

As Rush would say: Zip, Zero Nada.

Not only have none of these polls had a GOP advantage but the closest we saw was a D+4 poll.

Doug Ross via (@NumbersMuncher & @AriFleischer) has a great chart on his site that I’ll reprint here:

In every single poll showing Barack Obama ahead on this chart the sample is at least D+4 Even if the biggest swing in history takes place in the next 3 months toward the left that is 1.4 points above what the party split will be.

All of the figures I’ve cited are from a source publicly available. The Media know these figures, the left knows these figures and the Networks know these figures.

Yet they are still using polls with huge democrat samples and representing them as real.

I don’t know what that tells you but I sure know what it tells me

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

The election of Barack Obama was the biggest con ever perpetuated on the US Public, the polls the media is reporting these days is a close second.

Update: CBS belowns itself, D+13 REALLY?

Update: I stayed up late tweeting this out and had this tweet from a leftist named Mr. D who made this incredible assertion:


Being not only fair-minded but also sane and rational I asked for some data, the exchange was….interesting


Oh I’m now not only a bigot but it’s as clear as proving the sky is blue so who needs data?


Hey I can take a photo of the sky to prove it’s blue, if all these polls skew GOP you would think you can produce at least 1 to show it, but not this is the left I’ve said it so it MUST be true.

Talk about hide the decline.

Update 3: Great example of my point in the PPP Virgina Poll. Poll claims Obama up 50-45. Poll Sample +3 Dem

Actual registration split in Virginia? GOP +3

Update 4: I should stress that none of these figures are an argument to be complacent, to not make the calls, to not engage and to not fight for every vote out there. The registration trends are in our favor but apathy is fatal. Be cocky but not lazy.

Update 5: Instalanche Thanks Glenn & Powerline picks today, thanks guys.

Update 6: Linked by Hillbuzz, Ace, Neoneocon, Best of the Web, Before it’s news, polipundit, Evil Blogger Lady and I’m told mentioned on the air by Rush Limbaugh.

Thanks to you all, welcome to all the new readers and check out the site, the radio show (latest episode available by clicking on my fedora above) Nice to have you here.

Update 7: BTW for those who don’t know I like Rush have been arguing all the objective data shows the Democrats are not only losing but “Demoralized as Hell” click on the words “Ride Right Through them They’re demoralized as hell” for the full series and if you are a Rush fan you will want to read this or the short version here.

Update 8:  My disdain for skewed polls is not limited to polls shifted to favor candidates I oppose.

Update bottom: One more thing. The MSM will pay Politico & the Morning Joe people to put out this stuff, my stuff is only possible because of you, any help is appreciated

This week a KPC poll came out from Massachusetts showing a dead heat between Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren and a 16pt lead for Barack Obama.

There are several parts of this poll that are interesting and informative but the single most important figure you need to see is this:

Take a look at that split in Massachusetts Dems out number R’s by 23 points This should tell you how hard it is to elect a Republican nationally. If Independents split 50-50 you would have a 61.5% vs 39.5 win for the Democrats, a 22 point split, but instead it’s 56-40 for Obama.

What does that tell us nationally: Regardless of what the media is telling you Obama is in trouble

Massachusetts is one of the most liberal states in the nation (D+23). In this state a three-point Romney lead among independents is not going to make a huge difference, but in states that are say D+5 with independents that are less left leaning that could make a huge difference.

That is interesting but not as interesting as this:

Take a look at the reverse splits on Romney & Warren Voters vs Obama & Brown voters. If you are a Romney voter you are almost certainly voting for Brown only 3% going Warren & 2% undecided, yet if you are an Obama voter you are four times more likely to Voter for Brown than a Romney voter is to vote for Liz Warren (12%) with an almost equal number still up for grabs (11%).

Meanwhile the exact opposite is at the bottom, Liz Warren voters go for Obama in the same proportion as Romney voters for her, yet Brown voters are five times more likely (15%) to vote Obama with only a 4% up for grabs.

What does this tell us nationally? It tells us the MSM & National Base of the MSM has gone uber left.

There were several interesting local candidates who were willing to challenge Scott Brown, but the National Media and the National Democrats were totally enamored with Elizabeth Warren, pushing for her candidacy and filling her coffers until the local folks were squeezed out. The national media continues to push for Liz Warren bigtime yet look at these results.

How far left is a candidate who is too far left for Obama voters in Massachusetts?

That this is the candidate the national media simply adores and continues to push should inform you not just about Liz Warren, but should inform you about the national media that is still in denial over the results of the 2010 election.

And believe me, if you think they were in shock in 2010, 2012 will put them in a coma.
#2 The

Click the cartoon to by Michael’s latest book: “Everyone has a right to my opinion”

For several months I’ve been pointing out holes in the various polls that the MSM has been pushing for the last 5 months. May 15th

It is going to be necessary to have a narrative of the Obama campaign “roaring back” or having momentum. By embracing reality today in August or September they can release a poll with a bigger skew and viola instant Democratic momentum to report!

May 23rd:

The May sample polls 3% less Republicans and 1% more democrats than April. A full 4% difference in the left’s favor and yet with an extra point of Democrats in the sample:

And of course there is the MSM dismissing polls they didn’t like May 31st:

The post gets updated with the results of the Marquette Law School poll with Walker up seven. Sargent notes it’s “just inside the margin of error” and quotes a different source saying Walkers lead is under a point. That source? Talking Points Memo!

Sargent’s piece whether a press release for TPM & Media Matters or an attempt to con one more bit of work or dollar from democrat loyalists who ignore any non MMFA approved source

June 6th Donna Cahill said the following

nothing the convenient lapses of memory on the air for the left

But the old hiding crosstabs trick continued on Aug 8th

Hearing the report I went straight to the story at the times and looked for the crosstabs.

They weren’t there.

Then I went to the “how the polls were conducted” page. They had a link to NY Times polls and clicked there next.

There are a lot of charts and a lot of fancy graphics, and even a video or two. It sure looks pretty.

What isn’t there is the following

The Democrat vs GOP split on the polls

The Split of how the voters polled voted in 2008

or if it’s there it’s hiding REALLY good.

And Aug 10th both CNN:

So we have a poll where Romney is OVER-PERFORMING among his people growing his pie. THAT is the one indisputable fact that we can see from this poll.

Why is this important, I’ll explain it again: You don’t hide the figures if they favor you. If the breakdowns favored Obama they would be out there and arguing them, we would be seeing people talk about how great the president is doing among both his own side and drawing independents toward him. Instead you have to dig and do long division to establish the one fact that we can be sure of in this poll: Mitt Romney is performing beyond his base.

And the Fox poll:

So in a poll where there is a 9 point split between Democrats & Republicans Surprise Democrats lead by 9.

We also discovered that the PPP is capable of oversampling Republicans when they believe it is to their advantage Aug 21:

There’s another problem with this poll for Akin, one we don’t usually see from PPP emphasis mine— they significantly oversampled Republicans. The D/R/I on this survey is R+9 at 30/39/32, but even the GOP-sweep 2010 election had exit polls for Missouri showing an R+3 advantage, 34/37/28. I’m not sure I’d trust that one-point margin lead in this poll.

Now that’s really different, why would PPP suddenly choose this moment to oversample republicans?

Could it be that they are desperate to make sure that Todd Akin stays in the race?

I suspect that if he chooses to remain, the next sample will be less lopsided and more accurate.

If you wanted evidence that certain public polls are a tool to produce a desired result rather than inform, here it is.

All of these were examples of the Dem’s skewing poll results. It’s exactly the same, except for one thing.

Before the conventions the polls were standing alone, they were trying to create a narrative of strength independent of all other things. NOW they are trying to create a narrative of momentum from a political convention where the most enduring memory is the Democrat party booking God and Jerusalem.

The tactics are no different then they were a week a month or 6 months ago, the only difference is they are trying to link a false effect to a cause in order to sell it better. Remember what Allahpundit asked about that CNN poll last night:

Speaking of which, number two: Romney trails overall by six points while leading among independents … by 14?

And Dean Chambers at the Examiner has an explanation for that:

This new CNN/ORC survey, unlike many other analyzed, not only over-samples Democratic voters, but also massively under-samples independent voters, to produce a result more favorable to Barack Obama. This survey’s sample includes 397 registered Republicans and 441 registered Democrats. But the survey included a total of 822 registered voters, leaving only 37 independent voters at most. The survey clearly under-sampled independent and Republican voters.

This is not a coincidence, this is by design as John Nolte reminds us in a long post that finishes thus:

Harris and VendeHei and their team of shameless JournOlisters don’t give a damn about the jobless or the poor or the middle class or the concept of objective and honest reporting — all Harris and VandeHei and their team of shameless JournOlisters care about is dragging Their Precious One over the finish line.

This is not reporting this is campaigning.. Ed Morrissey today:

The media has been slow to tell the full story of the jobs crisis ever since Tim Geithner and Joe Biden declared a “Recovery Summer” in 2010. With some exceptions, the media has not bothered to puncture the claim from Obama of having added 4.5 million jobs, nor putting the decline of the workforce at the front of their stories on jobs reports, or even mentioning the underlying dynamic of population growth that is so critical to understanding those statistics. This is the worst economic recovery since the Great Depression, made worse by this administration’s economic and regulatory policies. Had that happened under a Republican President, those conclusions would be front-page news every single day.

The question isn’t if the MSM will continue to play this game, they will, the question isn’t even if some of us will fall for it. The question is, will the Romney campaign fall for it?

This is a true test of Romney’s resolve. He’s like the pilot of a plane rolling down the runway for takeoff. There’s a tree line at the end of the runway that he has to clear. He’s sure he’ll make it. He’s gaining speed, getting some lift, but he’s still not high enough, and at about three-quarters down the runway, a lot of passengers are getting scared. Does Romney keep going according to plan, confident he’ll clear the trees when the time comes? Or does he try some last-minute maneuver?

I suspect he will clear those trees with a lot to spare.

Final thought, The MSM wouldn’t have to do this if Obama wasn’t in deep trouble, DEEP trouble.

Today on DaTechGuy on DaRadio we bring in Rob Eno of Red Mass Group to talk about the Republican Convention, from Clint to Mitt and particularly the speech that impressed the two of us the most Artur Davis.

We will also be talking to Ohio based pollster Fritz Weaver about the poll he took in Missouri on Todd Akin and polls in general.

Join us on 10 AM EST on WCRN AM 830 Worcester Mass and don’t forget if you are somehow outside our 50,000 Watt Range you have a lot of streaming options.

You can listen live using the three different links for the WCRN live stream
If you are using Windows media player click here
If you are using Winamp clip here
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If you are using something else, then go to Tune-in.

And yes you can be part of the conversation call 508-438-0965 or toll-free nationwide 888-9-fedora.

Hope to talk to you then.

Anyone who reads this blog knows I don’t have a lot of faith in polling unless I see the internals. So when I saw this story at life news:

Poll Claims Todd Akin Has Re-Taken Lead on Claire McCaskill

The lead shown was 3 points for Akin. While it was not an outrageous number it was 12 pts different that the last announced poll. So immediately was suspicious:

Fritz Wenzel analyzed the results of the survey and concluded that “Despite the firestorm of news in the Senate race over the past few weeks, most voters have already made up their mind in the race, the survey shows. The fact that 80% said they were firm in their choice certainly indicates that this is a race that will be decided more by ideology and turnout efforts by the campaigns and less by breaking news that flashes across the news pages and cable news channels.”

So I looked at the memo page but there were no internals listed.

At that point I was ready to put up a post calling BS but I noticed the memo contained a contact number so I did what a reporter who wants a question answered is supposed to do I called.

Not only did I get the company but I got Mr. Weaver himself, he agreed to talk to me.

I asked him about the poll and the internals. He told me the split was as follows:

Republicans 34%
Democrats 33%
Independents 33%

Talk about a balanced poll. I’ve never seen a poll so exactly split. and this split is consistent with the actual partisan split in Missouri. I asked why the internals were not included he said the internals were given both to the client and to Politico (which had this story but didn’t put them out in their piece.)

Mr. Weaver answered all my questions and agreed to be on this week’s DaTechGuy on DaRadio on Saturday.

If this poll is accurate it confirms what I said on the 24th.

For all of the grief you have gotten none of the underlying issues that were a problem for McCaskill are still there. The economy, Obamacare, unemployment the lot.

There are a lot of people on the right who might be embarrassed by an Akin victory. Apparently to the voters of Missouri they would be much more embarrassed by a McCaskill win.

Exit question. If this is correct and Akin wins without the GOP what will the MSM say, what will McCaskill say and most importantly what will the media say?

Claire McCasKill runs away…from Obama

So now we have the Republican candidate who has been told in no uncertain terms that he won’t be getting one penny from the RNC and the Democrat sprinting away from the titular head of her party like Usain Bolt toward a Nike endorsement. Who is going to wind up financing this shindig seeing the way things are going?

Claire Claire Claire, you can run all the comercials you want but you can’t take back that Obamacare vote