This morning while figuring out what I want to say today I read two posts that clicked in my mind exactly how to explain the GOP establishment.

One of them was at Instapundit and linked to a piece by Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight on Donald Trump & Polls titled One less reason to be skeptical of Trump.

He listed reasons to be skeptical of Trump success and added one that was not data driven saying he expected the GOP Establishment to do all it could to stop him:

But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:

  • The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated.
  • Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better.
  • Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president.
  • An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.)

You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.

Now let’s look at Pastor George Kelly’s of my magnificent seven’s piece Is he or She a Conservative.  It’s the piece that precedes the one you’re reading now on this blog and notes the records of four candidates Rubio, Cruz, Trump and Carson. It’s Rubio & Cruz that I am thinking of here.

  • Senator Marco Rubio possesses a lifetime (ACU) score of 98%. One would venture to say that Mr. Rubio’s impeccable conservative credentials should be beyond dispute.

Alas, this is not the case.

Senator Rubio committed for many Immigration Hawks the unpardonable sin by supporting the GANG of 8’s Immigration Reform measures.  For this he has obtained the wrath of Boarder Security Conservatives.

Nevertheless, Mr. Rubio has been in the Senate for four (4) years and his voting record and public service testify that he is a True Conservative.

State Representative Marco Rubio was Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives when he mounted a race for the US Senate and ran against former Republican Governor Charlie Crist.

Mr. Rubio ran as a Tea Party Conservative; this writer is shocked and somewhat baffled over how anyone could call Marco Rubio “an establishment Republican.”

I’ve actually wondered that myself, I think what’s cost Rubio has been his attempts to spin what he did (or rather the spin of some of his supporters) instead of just saying.  Boy I tanked that didn’t I?  Pastor Kelly continues with Ted Cruz (who I’ve endorsed)

  • A look at Senator Ted Cruz of Texas’s (ACU) scores is equally impressive: Senator Cruz has a lifetime rating of 100%!  This is an astounding voting percentage (two years of Senatorial service).

Mr. Cruz is an intellectual wonder who graduated with distinction from both Princeton and Harvard Law School.

A similarity of both Senators reminds Conservatives of how far they have come since President Obama became President:  Both of these Senators are products of “The Tea Party Movement”; and both men ran against the Republican establishment.

A brief look at the two young Senators (Rubio & Cruz) is a testimony to the Intellectual and Political transformation that has affected our nation since William F. Buckley, Jr. founded “National Review” in 1955.

As the old song states, “You’ve come a Long Way Baby!”

Both Misters Rubio and Cruz are certifiably “CONSERVATIVE!

Now lets consider one other thing.  As Mr. Silver the party establishment is going all out to destroy Ted Cruz in Iowa.  At the same time the big money superpac for THE establishment candidate Jeb Bush who is floundering in both Iowa and NH and currently running 4th in his home state of Florida has been on an advertising blitz in NH going all out attacking not Donald Trump the leader, not Ted Cruz, not John Kasich who is supported by the Sununu family one traditional Bush family allies but Marco Rubio.

This tells me one of two things.

The Establishment GOP is still looking to nominate Bush and the plan is to take out both Cruz and Rubio early so that Jeb can be the only candidate standing as an alternative to Trump, the they can go all in against him.  Cruz gets the big guns attention because of his huge hard money advantage and incredible existing grass roots ground game in half the primary states already  & Rubio is left to Jeb’s moneybags on the theory that without a strong Iowa/NH showing he’ll can’t sustain his campaign long enough to make it to florida or be a threat afterwards leaving it Jeb vs Trump once again with the full might of the GOP ready to fight on Jeb’s side.

Under no circumstances can a conservative with the voting record of either Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz be allowed to be president.  Forget that both would be the first Hispanic to lead a major party ticket, forget Rubio’s gang of eight stuff.  We can’t take the chance that a tea party candidate be the head of the party particularly ones so solidly opposed to abortion.

Given the inability of anyone to land a punch on Trump (although Cruz’s latest ad is devastating) It’s possible that #1 is only Jeb plan.  After all the GOP establishment might be pragmatically thinking that they can’t stop Trump and the time to join is now while they can get something for it rather than later when it means nothing and his cooperation with their priorities will carry a higher price.

But given what I’ve seen of the GOP establishment in Washington , Massachusetts and particularly NH I think #2 is a pretty safe bet.

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Here is Ted Cruz’s speech from the YAF event in Nashua NH last friday

He took a few questions after his speech:

On creating political opportunity

On Standing with our allies:

and on replacing Obamacare

I also got the reactions of Seroach

and Michael

The crowd seemed to like what it saw, the only question is will the others who follow do better?

Da TechGuy, loyal Catholic extraordinaire, has been pushing for the now-surging Rick Santorum back when it wasn’t popular to do so.  A lot of people think that Romney is the inevitable nominee – the one who can beat Obama, has the experience to be President, etc. – but let’s remember that there are still a lot of chess pieces on the board.  A queen, if you will. An untapped Sarah Palin endorsement.

The field has been a mess for months, with Perry, Cain, Gingrich, Paul, and now Santorum being the Not Romney Du Jour. The Governor has wisely avoided endorsing anyone early on, in a crowded, fluctuating field.  But the Iowa caucuses are tomorrow; New Hampshire, the following week; then South Carolina and Florida before the end of the month.  If Rick Santorum, or any not-Romney figure, is in good shape going into February, she’ll endorse. When she does, prepare for the “inevitable” Romney nomination to tank as conservatives coalesce around their new standard-bearer.