The folks at PEW have released their last poll of the year and their headline seems to be good news for President Obama and bad news for me who has predicted his defeat:

Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign. In the Pew Research Center’s election weekend survey, Obama holds a 48% to 45% lead over Romney among likely voters.

Here is the line from the Poll


Leftist sites are rejoicing at a 3 pt lead with seemingly no time for Romney to change it, I’m sure Nate Silver is already boosting his averages.

Alas for the left, PEW also released their internals and even worse for them I haven’t forgotten how to do basic math so lets look at this last attempt to pretend something is true that isn’t.

First the splits in Party (click to enlarge) :

Pew interviewed 2709 people, 2611 identified themselves as either Republicans Democrats or Independents by their own count 843 Republicans, 1007 democrats and 761 independents. That works out to the following:

Democrats 1007 / 2709 = 37.1%
Republicans 843 / 2709 = 31.1%
Independents 761 / 2709 = 28.8%

So right off the bat we have a poll with a base advantage for Democrats of 6 pts. Even though both Gallup and Rasmussen have told us that the electorate is majority GOP this time around.

That would be enough to laugh this poll off but the mathematical legerdemain doesn’t end there.

All year we were told that this election was going to be who by he who took the independent voters. If you look at this new Pew poll who is leading among independents? Why lo and behold it is….Mitt Romney by 44% to 41% The GOP goes for Romney 91-7 & dems for Obama 94-5

But that doesn’t matter, apparently at this late date the independent vote that was so important just a few months ago doesn’t matter in election 2012 anymore.

That’s strike two but you need three strikes for an out, is there a third one? Guess what, there is!

If we look at the sample in terms of Gender did you know that the electorate in 2012 women are going to outvote men? As there are more women than men that’s not so odd, until you look at the margin… (click to enlarge)

Pew polled 1538 women vs 1171 men. That works out to the following percentages:

Women 1538 /2709 = 56.8
Men 1171 /2709 = 43.2

No wonder the women’s vote is so important! According to PEW apparently women aren’t going to just outvote men in 2012. They are going to do so in this election by 13 whole points! That is pretty interesting, particularly if you look at this chart from a pew study from just 4 years ago

In 2008 Pew reports a 4.2 point turnout advantage over men. Perish the thought, apparently according to THIS poll the 2012 gap is going to make that 2008 figure look positively miniscule…

…if you buy it that is.

OK that’s three strikes, but lets add a throw to first just in case this gets by the Catcher.

Let’s take a closer look at this sample, how representative of the electorate is it? Well one way to find out is to see how this group voted last time around (click to enlarge):

Well look at that a 13 point advantage of Obama voters vs McCain voters, but again this is registered voters, so lets remove those who didn’t vote so we can get down to those likely guys, what would the numbers be?

Obama voters 46 / 86 voters = 53.4%

Ok that seems to mean these voters President Obama took 52.9% of the vote so that’s a full half a point MORE than the president’s share of the vote in 2008

McCain voters 33 / 86 voters = 38.3%

Hmmmm John McCain drew 45.7% of the vote so this figure is a full 7.4 points BELOW John McCain’s vote total from 2008

That a 15.1 point gap in the popular vote that Barack Obama won by 7.2 points, MORE THAN DOUBLE the actual 2008 number. That’s a throw to first to end the inning and the game.

So this is what the Pew poll would have you believe:

#1 We are going to have a D+6 electorate even though all signs indicate the Democrats are not all that thrilled with president Obama but in 2010 the republicans managed historic wins in the states, and the house and big senate wins too.

#2 Even though independents favor Mitt Romney by 3 points in this poll and Republicans are voting 91-7 for Mitt according to their own number the electorate in 2012 is SO democratic that Obama is still up by 3 points

#3 The female electorate on election day is going to outnumber the male electorate by a full 13 points thus negating any advantage that Mitt Romney might have with men.

#4 A sample where the people interviewed supported Obama in 2008 by a figure double than the actual result should be trusted to show us how the electorate will vote in 2012.

There is a phrase to describe this kind of thinking, it’s known as “Willing suspension of disbelief”.

While that is dandy if you are a Doctor Who fan watching the Doctor reverse the polarity of the neutron flow, it doesn’t do a whole lot of good if you are trying to figure out how an election is going to end up in the real world.

The fact that PEW and the left is flogging a D+6 poll with a +13 point sample of women is funny, that this poll shows Romney leading among independents yet has Obama up 3 is funnier, that you are releasing a poll two days before an election that has a sample whose members supported Obama at double the rate of 2008 isn’t just funny it screams one thing:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

This is the type of thing you do when you’ve got nothing else, they’ve got NOTHING and we are going to beat them so bad they are going to wonder why they were so willing to sell their credibility on a candidate as bad as this president.

Update: If you think this is trouble for the left consider the new CNN poll. As Breitbart reports:

Moreover, the polls’s crosstabs indicate that Romney is winning self-described independent voters by a giant 59%-37% margin. A 22-point lead among independents virtually guarantees victory for Romney. Yet Democrats are so heavily over-represented in the CNN poll that Romney’s 22-point lead becomes a mere 49%-49% tie.

Here is the sample:

A total of 1,010 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, telephone usage and whether respondents own or rent their homes. Registered voters were asked questions about their likelihood of voting, past voting behavior, and interest in the campaign; based on answers to those questions, 693 respondents were classified as likely voters. Respondents who reported that they had already cast an absentee ballot or voted early were automatically classified as likely voters. Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.

Media Credibility day not withstanding, if you are going to skew a poll with a D+11 sample to get a tie you might as well get a D+12 sample and give Obama a lead. If you are going to make a fool of yourself, why not?
It has Mitt & Obama Tied at 49, but only manages this feat with a +d11 sample

Never let a good crisis go to waste

Rahm Emmanuel

There is nothing more dangerous than an excuse

DaTechGuy

Back in 2010 when the MSM needed something ANYTHING to pretend the Tea Party Rallies were nothing special they grasped onto the Coffee Party (you might remember them) the other 98 percent (I doubt you remember them) Al Sharpton DC march (you remember him if you watch MSNBC) and finally Jon Stewart’s Rally to Restore Sanity (you’re lucky if you don’t remember it)

In addition to abject failure all of these marches, movement etc had one thing in common: Every single one of them was held up by the MSM as the counter to the Tea Party that was going to energize voters to vote for the left. It wasn’t until after the very last one, Jon Stewart’s horrible rally failed did the media the next Monday decide to report: “You know, the Democrats might just be in trouble this cycle.”

Last weekend we saw signs that Media Credibility day was coming early, There were no new rallies by the left,  unlike the Tea Party the final media creation, Occupy (or better put destroy) everywhere failed to inspire the people (in fact they turned them off). More details of Benghazi were coming out, none of them good for the president and it looked like the only thing left to do was batten down the hatches for a long week.

Then came Hurricane Sandy.

Suddenly we had an honest to goodness situation where the president had a chance to do something right on a grand scale and the media went into full idolatry mode

Suddenly Barack Obama who even the left had been calling “aloof” is “decisive”

Suddenly Government regulations that the president had basted of were things the President was relaxing.

Suddenly Chris Christie who was not newsworthy when he was giving some of the best speeches urging voters to reject Obama, was newsworthy when he was praising the president for helping out (strangely enough NYC wasn’t highlighted but there is not a Romney proxy to co-opt there)

And even better for the media, Sandy is a legitimate story worthy of coverage, so if the MSM decided to ignore Benghazi, or Bob Menendez (D-NJ) visits with Dominican Hookers, or play down Romney making appearance in PA & Minn, hey Sandy is a full-fledged disaster and it has to come first.

Most important of all it means rather than sitting talking about an impending Obama defeat to the MSM Sandy means hope.

Sandy is going to be a story long past election day, and every day the MSM keeps it front and center is to them a chance, just a chance that the president can use it to swing this election around, and because it is not going to be done by Tuesday, it means these hopes won’t be dashed until the actual votes are counted on election evening.

Never mind the majority of the damage is in states the president should carry easily

Never mind the vast majority of the country as a whole and the swing states in particular remain untouched.

Never mind that the president: “No person left behind” remark positively incensed conservatives after Benghazi, who were already so motivated you had folks knocking on doors during the storm.

So for the left this means Media Credibility day can be postponed indefinitely and when Barack Obama loses on Tuesday, and there is no political advantage to pushing it Suddenly the question will become: What is president-elect Romney doing to get this disaster taken care of? Why isn’t his transition team making contingencies? The critiques can begin on day one.

The most dangerous thing you can give someone is an excuse, and Hurricane Sandy is an excuse for the media to ignore the reality of this election till the very end, and maybe even beyond.

I haven’t dived deeply into polls much lately because frankly there has been no point, Mitt Romney has this race and baring the “Live Boy Dead girl” scenario it’s not changing. (actually considering Romany’s rep it wouldn’t take a dead girl, a live girl would shatter his clean image completely)

But with one week to go the last gasp effort to rally the MSNBC troops took place today on Morning Joe as they touted the Quinnipiac/CBS?NYT polls Saying Obama is up 5 in Ohio with a week to go.

What really got me was their claim that the Quinnipiac poll was the “most accurate” and again playing the “poll denier” card. I’ve personally found their numbers the least believable and while they were talking about the fights in other states as an alternative to Ohio for Romney I looked up the internals of this Ohio/VA/Florida poll and found this:

After talking about how reliable Quinnipiac is, for 15 minutes and while I was tweeting out the D+8 samples in all of these states D+7 in Florida, they suddenly pivoted as Mark Halperin brought up the D+8 sample and people asked how can this be the case if Mitt is up by huge margins among independents in this poll?

At this time they made the case that the split in the sample defines the electorate while I argue that the accurate of the poll is based on how the splits match the electorate.

Now Polls have limitation based on the response rate and the various methods of getting people to answer but the actual registration and demographics of a state are a reality, they may change over time but they are what they are no matter what but of a sample is used.

In the 7 AM Hour more of the same and in the 8 AM hour they repeated this nonsense. This isn’t a poll, this is a last gasp before Media Credibility day arrives and it becomes impossible to deny what already exists.

That the Morning Joe team is spending a show trying to sell the accuracy of a D+8 poll in Ohio & VA & +7 in Fla to their far left base speaks volumes, here is what it says to me:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

When you are reduced to Chuck Todd arguing body language in private conversations that’s pretty bad, by contrast you have Romney people canvasing during the damn storm.

Folks, there is going to be a turnout effort in Ohio like you’ve never seen. George Cullen has been canvassing door-to-door for the past five weeks. He usually hits about 50 doors a day, but only got 25 under the storm conditions yesterday. He’s a West Point graduate who served six years in the Army, and he says, “The conservatives are very energized.”

Yeah this is a D+8 state SURE! It will be fun to watch these guys next Wednesday.

Update: Just called Robert Stacy McCain on the ground in Ohio and asked about the “Body Language” stuff from Chuck Todd: “It’s crazy” He spoke to Kevin Madden on Sunday one of the top guys in the Romney Campaign after rally. He seemed calm and laid back. He hasn’t seen any of this scary “Body Language” from the Romney folks.

They are still working hard, they have not slacked off nor would anyone expect them to but if our friends on the left want to tell themselves this, as the folks in the south say “Bless their Hearts”.

Update 2: Ed Morrissey elaborates:

In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election. If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead. However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday. In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.

I guess that explains why we didn’t see Ed on the show today. I suspect that message wouldn’t have been all that welcome.

Update 3: Instalanche and Michael Graham who you might recall was the owner of the site “Anybody But Mitt” says what is coming:

I believe we’re on the verge of a solid Romney win for two reasons. One is the objective evidence. The other is the ugly desperation of the Obama campaign in its final days.

and he raises a very important point I never thought of:

The president, on the other hand, has peaked at 47 percent. The Battleground Poll model shows Obama losing 52 percent to 47 percent. Rasmussen daily tracking has Obama losing 49 percent to 47 percent. Pew has him tied: 47 percent to 47 percent. But more important, all the polls show Obama sliding or stuck. None show any upward movement.

Obama supporters are quick to tell you “the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.” Two things: a) that’s what candidates who are behind always say; b) this is election day.

Next Wednesday is going to be fun.

Update 4: Stacy who I so rudely woke up in the first update asks an obvious question:

You might think some reporter at the New York Times, which co-sponsored this poll, would think it worth his while to interview the people at Quinnipiac and ask where they’re getting these weird over-samples of Democrats. What is causing this? How is it that Republicans report greater voting enthusiasm by such large margins, and yet are underrepresented in the poll’s sample? It makes no sense.

I’d love to hear the answer.

BTW PPP poll now being touted, Iowa Sample is D+5 Wisconsin D+4

There are two polls I checked out before leaving the hotel today, both had bad news for the GOP but beyond that there is nothing else in common.

One is the WBUR poll on the Brown Warren Race. The WBUR poll shows a big swing toward Warren, now up by 5.

I’ve looked at the internals of the WBUR poll and as always they are spot on.

Although I want Scott Brown to win, this poll pleases me, Brown has made some big mistakes in the air war (more on that tomorrow) and hopefully this poll will cause him to pivot to a better strategy, the one that gave him the lead in the first place.

You can’t correct a problem unless you know it’s there, this poll informs the Brown campaign of a problem and thus is useful

I like that!

While I like the WBUR poll I absolutely LOVE the Time Magazine poll in Ohio showing Obama up 5.

You might ask: “DaTechGuy have you gone roadtrip crazy? Why would you love a poll showing Romney losing Ohio?”

Simple I looked at the internals of this poll. Unlike most polls the partisan splits are not as obvious, you have to do some math but it’s really quite simple.

They polled 783 people in the unweighed sample 290 Democrats, 220 Republicans and 224 independent. That comes out to a sample that is Dem 37.0% GOP 28.0 and 28.6 Ind That’s D+9

With 742 total respondents you have 273 Dems, 206 GOP and 215 independents that’s a split of 36.7% dems, 27.7% GOP and 28.9 Ind. Again a D+9 split

As Ohio is a +1 GOP state on registration this indicates the MSM has gone back to the “spin the polls” business to keep their people on the registration.

I’m delighted by this, it means the Obama campaign and the MSM has decided there is no way to reverse these numbers short of simple propaganda, this means they will not change their strategy and this race is finished.

Either that or the left is in denial, that’s exactly where I want them to be.

Closing note. In the studio on Morning Joe, Joe & Mika and the Panel are all hanging their hats on the Time Magazine poll, but Chuck Todd in Ohio hedged. Joe & Mika are opinion folk, they can afford to take a side, but Chuck Todd is the chief WH guy, he can’t look a fool

Mitt Romney is going to win this election and it’s not going to be close.

“You mean to tell me—HA HA HA—that there are actually people—HOHOHOHO—who—GASP GASP— FALL for that STUPID disguise?”

Ambush Bug to Clark Kent/Superman Action comics 560

After putting out this tweet yesterday

Some members of the left are understandably upset so Jonathan If you don’t believe Obama is up in the polls you’re a “poll denier” Chait has decided to respond:

Oops sorry that sure sounded like him, here is what he actually said:

This is a bluff. Romney is carefully attempting to project an atmosphere of momentum, in the hopes of winning positive media coverage and, thus, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

For those of you still able to read this because you weren’t drinking in front of your PC’s or laptops let me explain the the error of he that NY Mag sees fit to pay for this nonsense

Mr Chait has fallen victim to his own propaganda, like General Beauregard who was shocked to discover that the elaborate designs to invade the North early in the war propagated by Albert Sydney Johnston was an elaborate bluff, Mr. Chait has fallen victim to the rest of the media’s similar moves in this election cycle.

Mr. Chait may I be so bold as to note that during the month of September while the media was assuring us Barack Obama was mopping up the floor with Mitt and the only question left was: “Would Mitt abandon Ohio as hopeless?” the people with skin in the game were busy giving the GOP an 80+ Million cash advantage?

May I remind Mr. Chait that almost no candidate in a close race has been willing to appear with Barack Obama and if he was on any fewer web sites of candidates seeking office they would have milk cartons all over swing states.

And may I finally remind Mr. Chait that the MSM would not decide to give favorable coverage to Mitt if Christ himself came down from heaven with JFK & FDR to endorse him for the presidency the media would hit Mitt for crossing the line between the religious and the political

Mr Chait, I hate to disappoint you but not only IS Romney winning, but he has been winning for a lot longer than the media has been willing to admit. If Obama was any more toast he would be served with your breakfast with a pad of butter and a side of Jam at your favorite local diner.

But by all means believe what you want to believe and when Mitt Wins (and wins big) you can push the stolen election meme that the UN observers are undoubtedly preparing to write.

Much simpler than sell examination.

Editors note: It goes without saying that this entire piece assumes Mr. Chait believes this nonsense and is not trying hie best to stem the tide of a depression so deep among Democrats that they fear losing the coveted Honey Boo Boo endorsement.

I’ve already talked about the nonsense concerning equal pay laws pointing to the 1970’s Batman PSA to remind us all that equal pay for Equal work has been the law of the land for almost two generations.

But let’s pretend for the sake of argument that Yes there has been a grand conspiracy afoot and women do indeed make only 72% of men for the same work.

If we stipulate this as a fact lets note three important points.

1. The Economy is as bad as it ever has been in my lifetime, I don’t think it’s as bad as the great depression but I believe it is worse than the late 70’s which was the worst I remembered before now. (In fairness I didn’t have the responsibilities then that I have now)

2. In a tough economy business’ trying to survive find themselves forced to work on smaller and smaller profit margins.

3. Talk to any business owner and they will tell you the single biggest expense they deal with is labor, in fact the incredible costs of labor is the reason why so few people are being hired.

So for the last four years we’ve been in mired in a horrible economy with businesses forced to cut margins any way they can simply to survive.

Yet women have borne the brunt of the job loss in this economy

Here is the question: If you are a business owner in the worst economy in decades who is cutting your bottom line to the bone in order to try to preserve some kind of margin, wouldn’t you be the women who are being paid less and laying off the men who are making more? In fact aren’t you replacing the higher paid men with these women that you can supposedly get for 72 cents on the dollar?

But DaTechGuy, you KNOW these evil discriminatory business would not let money get in the way of their prejudices.

If that was the case then prejudice against Mexicans would have kept jobs from moving south of the border and bigotry against Chinese would have kept jobs from Asia.

You can’t have it both ways, either these guys are greedy businessmen who would throw grandma off the cliff to make an extra buck or they are bigots of such incredible proportion that they are willing, in an age when interest rates for investments are at best 1 or 2% a full 28 cents on the dollar just to satisfy their own hatred of women.

The Doctor: What are you a journalist?

Penny: Yes!

The Doctor: Then make it up.

Doctor Who Partners in Crime 2008

Robert Stacy McCain and the Sept Finance Report drives the final stake through the Democrats Heart:

The Democrats ended September with cash on hand of $4.6 million, compared to the Republican National Committee’s $82.6 million.

That’s nearly an 18-to-1 cash advantage for Republicans.

And if you think that’s bad this is worse:

the DNC, they had to take out loans to pay the bills so that they owed $20.5 million at the end of September, meaning that that (subtracting cash on hand from total debt) they were $15.9 million in the red — essentially bankrupt. Wasserman-Schultz’s committee only raised $3.7 million in September; at that pace, it would take them more than four months to clear their debt, even if they didn’t spend another dime in the meantime.

What is the most significant word in this story? SEPTEMBER.

You see the first debate wasn’t until Oct 3rd. September was the DNC in Charlotte. It took place the first week of the month. A convention that our media friends told us was such a success for the Obama Campaign, A Convention the media told us put Romney in a big hole, a convention that meant Romney would need a miracle of a debate performance to recover from.

Yet in the land of Realville in that awesome month for the left when the month when Republicans were going down for the third time the people who actually write the checks were so impressed by the party they left them in a state where they had about 6% of the cash the GOP did.

You can believe one of two things, either the money men all employed psychics who were under the influence of Pyroviles:

Sept 1st 2012 Big Money INC HQ

or the media was shoveling in the hopes of bucking up the left and scaring the right.

Believe what you want, here is what I believe:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

It’s easy to ride right through them when they can’t afford Horses!

Looking at the media reaction to the debate particularly from our friends in MSNBC perfectly illustrates the difference between Strategy and Tactics that I discussed in one of my premium commentaries.

The left seems unanimous that Obama won this debate decisively, they point to the “women” questions. They point to Candy Crowley’s “tackle” of Mitt Romney. They point to polls at both CBS that had Obama winning by 8 and CNN that had Obama up by 7.

Unfortunately Barack Obama and the left are looking tactically and not strategically, they are subjecting Barack Obama to as George Bush called it: The Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations.

Two weeks ago Barack Obama turned in comparatively one of the worst debate performances since Admiral Stockdale. The media and the left has been in panic ever since. They weren’t worried about Obama losing the debate, they were worried about Obama drooling all over himself, as I tweeted last night:

If you grade Barack Obama on the Denver Scale he got an A+, in reality this debate was about even, I gave Romney a 2 pt win but I have no problem with someone who gives Obama that same margin, but the goal here isn’t to be given the a nod on point, the goal is to win the election.  In the Frank Luntz focus group out in Nevada, a swing state it was DEVASTATING.

Note the only defenders of Obama were all “Romney is after our ladyparts”.

On MSNBC while the entire table was ABSOLUTELY positive Obama won, the verdict of actual voters of the focus group was quite different.

and when Chris Matthews threw a loaded question attempting to push the women in the panel away from Romney, he failed.

I don’t have the CNN panel video but they also split on where they were voting.

That’s the bottom line, it doesn’t matter what people think about winning the debate it’s who they will vote for as John King on CNN said:

“Yankee fans agree the Tigers won last night but they’re not voting for Detroit”

Romney is ahead if Obama doesn’t move those voters he is toast.  I’ll give Chris Barron the last word:

This race is over, start practicing saying: President Romney

Update: I suspect if the president did as well as MSNBC thinks there would not be a legion of idiots publicly vowing to kill Mitt Romney

Funny how the MSM doesn’t find this a story, isn’t it?

Update 2: the Evil Blogger Lady gets it.

Gloria:  “Wow, that’s convoluted logic”

Archie:  “Yes, and that’s the kinda straight thinking I’m trying to put across here.”

All in the family 1972

I woke up late today and have been trying to think of how to properly encapsulate the reaction of the far left to Joe Biden’s performance last night.  In my travels this morning I found exactly what I wanted in a sign in front of a person’s house on Providence Street in Fitchburg

Ignoring for a moment the “How long have they had a chimp problem on Providence Street?” question, nothing better describes the MSNBC/P2 crowd today than this image.

The entire “demoralized as hell” meme is all about how our friends on the left have been selling the American people an alternative version of reality not in sync with actual events and yesterday’s debate provided the best example of this.

Democrats running for office have been running away from Barack Obama for a year.  After the president’s debate performance the American People started joining them.  To the left who had embraced the Sam Tanenhaus “death of conservatism” meme, who discounted the midterm election and who considered the victory of people like Ted Cruz and Mia Love in GOP primaries as a bug rather than a feature of the conservative movement,  panic and depression set in.  They needed something, ANYTHING to convince them all is not lost.

Then came Joe Biden and yesterday’s debate.

Biden was rude, Biden made weird faces, Biden totally misrepresented Libya, but he also was combative, challenged Paul Ryan as needed, hit key Democrat talking points and had a perfectly adequate debate, (in my opinion losing on points) not particularly memorable but not one that was going to cost the left any votes it already had.

But to the MSM, to MSNBC, to Chris Matthews, Ed Schultz and to every leftist who were preparing to move to Massachusetts after election day in the hope that Question #2 will pass and they can end it all Joe Biden was a savior.

HE stopped the bleeding.  He fought back.  He showed the Democrat party was better than the GOP.  He was a man schooling a boy.  He re-energized the base!

Never mind that the election is 27 days away and they’re losing.

Never mind the need to expand the base.

Never mind that Paul Ryan at that same table succeeded at the only job he had in this debate, demonstrating that he was perfectly capable of stepping into the #1 spot if something, God forbid should happen to Mitt Romney in the next four years.

No, says the left, we aren’t hearing any of this, we don’t see it!  All we saw was a mighty warrior who vanquished the evil youth who is going to kill our seniors and sell our poor for sausages.  You can say all you want that this debate didn’t move voters away from Mitt but we’re not listening to you!

The activist MSNBC  left can put its fingers in its ears all it wants, it can pretend this debate is a game changer rather than, at best, a draw, but the few democrats involved in the campaign still living in realville understand that all Joe Biden performance accomplished was bandaging an open wound. It might stop the bleeding but it’s not going to get the patient in any condition to win a race.

And 27 days is not a lot of time left for them so that means one thing for us on the right:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

If our friends on the left believed in novenas I’d suggest three of them to St. Jude, but he might start asking uncomfortable questions about the unborn…

Update: Speaking of delusional chimps….

Remember a professional press outfit actually paid this guy for years.

…with this statement concerning their just released polls:

In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats — 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats. . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

Amazing how the samples matter once Romney’s numbers improved in Ohio, I wonder where they buy their Cheetos?

Meanwhile in VA the previous D+4 sample becomes an R+1 samples and guess what? Romney now has a +1 pt lead! Change the sample and you change the results. How about that!

“But DaTechGuy” you say, “That party identification is psychological, people call themselves more Republican because the GOP is doing better and Romney is doing better.”

Well if that’s the case then we should see change in Florida. While there seems to be universal agreement that the Debate Moved numbers for Romney Florida remains unchanged, how can that be when other Florida Polls have moved…

…what a coincidence, the D vs R sample hasn’t moved and PRESTO the Obama Romney gap doesn’t move, even when the entire universe concludes Obama is in free fall.

Funny how that works isn’t it?

Mind you Florida & VA are the same states the Suffolk decided not to poll anymore because Romney had it cold.

Why do I have a sneaking suspicion that after the next debate (or perhaps after tonight’s VP debate) the party samples will move and the numbers will improve for the Obama campaign?

If people don’t realize they are being played it’s only because they don’t want to know it.

Update: take a look at the party splits vs the poll results from CBS


It’s worth noting that there is no measure of if people “lean” amazing how the results seem to match the samples within a point or two.

To those democrats and Independents whose minds are open to argument, listen closely to the Democratic party that will gather in Charlotte, ask yourself if you hear your voice in the clamor, ask if these Democrats still speak for you?

Artur Davis Aug 28th 2012

Several months ago I was on a conference call with the now official GOP nominee for ma-4 Sean Bielat during which his operative Sarah Rumpf actually referred us to Joe Kennedy III’s web site to see how devoid it was of idea.

It was an extraordinary moment I had never heard of a representative of a candidate directing voters to their opponent site and I asked her about it. She said she had never made such a recommendation before but Kennedy’s website demonstrated his lack of ideas so well.

During the GOP convention that the MSM declared a failure Artur Davis Former Congressman from Alabama and Former member of the Democrat Party during a speech Rob Eno of Red Mass Group said “Should have been the Keynote” implored Americans to Watch the Democrat Convention and see if that is the party they think it is.

Lucky for the Democrat party most American’s didn’t take him up on it so they received a filtered and spun version of reality where the booing of God and Jerusalem was a non issue and Bill Clinton’s speech was not outdrawn by the opening of the Football season.

Now that the first debate is behind us and the protective screen that the media has surrounded the Obama campaign has been pierced NOW is the time to replay on the air some of those highlights that the media decided was not newsworthy at the time.

I think some of those videos might be a revelation to those who still think this is John F. Kennedy’s Democrat party. It certainly will be a revelation to those getting those calls claiming Barack Obama is not pro abortion.

called a sp

“Tell the Truth”

Grover Cleveland

“The King’s good servant, but God’s First.”

St Thomas Moore July 6th 1535  his last words before being executed

In the days before instant communication it was not uncommon for surrogates for candidates touring the west to not just tailor their message to fit a particular community, but to bluntly declare a candidates support for a hot button issue in one town while in another proclaim his undying opposition to the same issue.

With no way to check and with the likelihood of a tiny local paper’s report not going beyond the area it was pretty safe. Even if an individual noticed the voice of that individual ability to call out such behavior was generally limited to the individuals they saw in person.

Well years have passed and lo and behold some tactics have not changed one bit and the target seems to be Catholics:

While the campaign denies that faith will be used to hammer on Romney, campaign callers are pushing Mitt’s Mormonism as a reason for Catholics not to vote for Romney.

Now anyone who has paid attention to this blog or Stacy McCain’s is not the least bit surprised to see the “Mormon” card but while that is despicable, what followed really shocked me:

Just a week ago, I reported a call from an Obama supporter received by a Catholic in Pennsylvania. The caller, identifying herself as Catholic, insisted Obama was not pro-abortion and Planned Parenthood did not encourage abortions.

And if you think this might have been a rogue caller, think again:

“Well, I could not believe that I had received another call from the Obama campaign looking for another of my college aged children in less than a week. I informed the caller that my son was a practicing Catholic and would not be supporting a pro-abortion, pro-gay marriage candidate who did not respect the Catholic faith in his HHS mandate that would force all Catholics to pay for birth control, sterilization, and the abortion pill.”

At that point, the Obama supporter started reading from the same script that Joy had heard from the first call.

Mind you at the very same time we have Democrats running ads in New England attacking Republicans for their opposition to abortion. Stacy McCain:

This is a scripted attack, which seems to be a “push poll” specifically targeted at Catholics registered as Republican, with the purpose of suppressing the pro-life vote for Mitt Romney. Exactly how widespread it is or who is funding and directing it, we don’t know.This is what is called Push Polling

There was a time when such tactics might fly under the radar, but in the days of the intenet and Fox news.

It’s just not as easy.

Now if these people had taken Artur Davis advice and actually watched the Democrat convention they likely wouldn’t be substitutable to this nonsense, but as things are I expect the same MSM that had no idea how SNL could parody the 1st Obama/Romney debate to not touch this except as part of their post election analysis

As Catholics.org warned

Catholics across the nation should be prepared to receive these deceitful and dissembling phone calls. They should learn from this Catholic mother, this pro-life warrior and RN, to speak the truth, with charity, to those who are willing to tell lies in support of their favored political candidate.

These Catholics for Obama calls are coming your way — the scripts are written, their call centers are ready, and they are well-funded.

What really amazes me is the people identifying themselves as Catholics saying things they know are simply not true. Stacy McCain again

“This is Chicago thugocracy on display. Demoncrats have no morals. Their hero Saul Alinsky taught that the ends justifies the means.”

Indeed, and — remembering that Alinsky dedicated his book Rules for Radicals to Lucifier — these tactics are quite literally Satanic.

Well that being the case, for my fellow Catholics I suggest invoking St. Thomas Moore. & St. John Fisher in that spirit I have composed the following prayer:

St. John Fisher & St. Thomas Moore at the cost of your own lives you defended the truth of the faith. We beg you in this election season to aid us. Help us to hear the truth as taught by the holy church that you died to defend, defend the right in the face of opprobrium and give us the strength to reject the temptation to deceive for any worldly gain or goal. Through your intercession, may the same Holy Spirit that sustained you in trial inspire us to the right . We ask this through Christ our Lord

Amen

And remember we must pray not only for those who are the targets of deception but for those trying to deceive.

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We are getting closer and closer to DaTechGuy 100th show Celebration at Lago’s Ristorante on October 20th. We will be broadcasting live from 10-noon and then staying till 2 to eat and say hello to all the people who made 100 weeks possible.

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There is a ton of crowing on the right and worry on the left based on the new PEW poll showing President Obama’s +8 lead turning into a Mitt Romney 4 point lead in just 30 days.

Granted the debate was devastating but even no, especially with polls one finds encouraging, it is VITAL to see if there is some hanky panky going on with the sample.

Last time I hit the PEW poll because the sample was D+9 when I saw the D vs R sample number on this poll I saw something I have never NEVER seen before in a national poll:

A +4 R sample in a national poll? Say What!

That is a 13 point sample swing, 13 points. if you compare this to the Rasmussen numbers this poll slight oversamples the GOP by 1.4 pts. I have never EVER seen a national poll do his and neither have any of you.

So what happens when you skew the sample 13 points in the other direction? Lo and behold the results…move in the other direction.

“But DaTechGuy” you say, How do we know both samples aren’t right? Can’t this isn’t just more people saying they are Republican because they NOW support Romney, you know following the crowd and all that?”

Glad you asked my boy, glad you asked.

Remember last month when I looked at this poll I looked at the numbers concerning who the sampled voted for in 2008, saw the ridiculous gap in the figures and said this:

That’s a 15 point Obama edge in an election that Obama won by 7.2 but it’s even worse because those numbers are based on 86. if you do the full percentages based on 100% of voters it comes out Obama 54.6% (+1.7 over 2008) and McCain 37.2% (-8.6 under 2008) in this sample.

Now you might think Obama is ahead but does anyone ANYONE believe he will do 1.7 point better than 2008. Does anyone ANYONE believe Romney will underperform McCain by 8.6?

Maybe that will fool Talking points Memo, Firedoglake and the like but it won’t fool anyone who can, you know do MATH.

I looked at that same Obama vs McCain question in the new poll. In this sample the 15 point edge is down to 5

And lets do the math again to turn those who voted into the proper percentages

Obama 52.9

(pct of Sample that voted Obama)=42 (obama 08 voters)/85(number who voted)

McCain 43.5

(pct of Sample that voted McCain)=37 (obama 0 8 voters)/85(number who voted)

Ok in this sample the Obama sample matches his 2008 figure EXACTLY, while the McCain sample is under by a mere 2.3 points. Unless all of these people were lying about who they were voting for last time and suddenly got religion we have a sample that is within 2.3% of the actual vote in 2008

So what does this mean?

It means that when you have a poll that closely reflects the actual GOP vs Dem split (within 1.4 points of it if you believe Rasmussen) you get a result that accurately reflects what is going on rather than a Democrat fantasy.

Much as I hate to give solace to Andrew Sullivan, public opinion didn’t swing 12 points in a week, Pew simply took a sample that almost matches the American electorate and we are seeing what was already there, only more so.

Postscript: I follow memeorandum on twitter and as I was finishing this post I saw this jaw dropping tweet:

I followed that tweet to this story at the Washington Post:

If either Pew or Gallup kept their “sample balance” constant, there would be far less of a shift in their headline numbers. Poll watchers need to closely assess both trend-lines as the election draws near.

That’s exactly right but wasn’t that the same argument I’ve been making right along? The argument that got all of us called Poll “Truther” and poll “Deniers” and “Conspiracy Theorists”?

All I have to say is Pew, welcome to Realville!

Exit Question: Is this sample Pew’s attempt to correct itself pre-election or will see a new poll just before the day re-skewed to try and create the Obama comeback?

Update: Twitchy notices

After screening out respondents who are unlikely to vote, Pew was left with a sample of likely voters that was R+3, according to Chuck Todd.

If the sample in the Pew poll is skewed toward Republicans, it probably is not off by much. A month ago, Rasmussen reported a 2-point edge for Republicans in party ID. In Wisconsin’s recall election a few months ago, the partisan breakdown was R+1, according to exit polls. Party ID was tied 35-35 in 2010.

But we’re glad to see liberals acknowledge that polls can be skewed and that it is possible for a sample to over-represent members of one party or the other. Maybe Obama supporters won’t call us insane the next time we question a D+13 sample.

Chuck Todd? Chuck Todd is now a poll truther? I didn’t see him at the meeting, does he know the secret handshake?

Update 2: Althouse watches Sully’s meltdown and figures it out:

Sorry, but it’s hard not to see this as a lot of posing. A set up for the big announcement that Obama is back. If Obama is any good at all in the next debate or the one after that, we’ll be told the man is a miracle.


Update 3:
That new Pennsylvania Poll that has Romney down 2 pts has some interesting splits:

If you include leaners then it’s one point closer.

As for registration

I don’t have a lot of faith in Pennsylvania, there will be plenty of walking around money in the cities and the suspension of the ID law for this election means the left has one last chance to do what they do best. 2016 will be different but I don’t have high hopes here.

As for Michigan the internals of that poll aren’t out yet but the last one was D+5 be very interested to see what this one is.

Update 4: Michigan internals are now out here is the sample:

So the sample is D+5 has Barack Obama up 3 48-45. Last month when the numbers showed Obama up 10 47-37 the sample was….D+5

be afraid Democrats, be very afraid.

Update Bottom: Oh and a reminder, the Washington Post is a multi-million dollar corporation and the people they pay just figured out poll samples matter.

I am a guy who since the Obama years makes his entire living from Ads and Tip Jar hitters and have been saying this for months. If you think that my analysis of polls that the Washington Post finally has figured out, is worth something I would be most grateful if you were to hit the DaTipJar to help keep this stuff coming




And of course Tip Jar hitter get the codes for my Subscriber only videos the newest once comes out tomorrow.

What do you think the Swedes’ll say sir?” he asked, greatly daring. The responsibility was none of his, and he knew by experience that Hornblower was likely to resent being reminded that Bush was thinking about it.

“They can say what they like” said Hornblower, “but nothing they can say can but Blanchefleur together again”

C. S. Forester Commodore Hornblower 1945 p 129

My father has been dead for over 25 years but one of the lessons he taught me that really stuck was this: If something needs to be done, don’t ask permission first do it, DO IT!

It has served me well, particularly in reporting, but the administration seems to have taken this advice to the next level.

There is under 40 days to the election, Barack Obama will never be running for president again (I don’t subscribe to the “dictator” theory that some hold) the idea is to get re-elected. As I’ve pointed out for over a year, the facts on the ground and the actions of those with skin in the game have indicated disaster for a long time.

While media has instead been all “happy happy joy joy” the Obama campaign knows where things actually are, when they are behind closed door they are forced to live in realville. The first rule is to WIN, that is the thing they want to do and they are not going to worry about the niceties.

  1. They would much rather deal with questions of voting irregularities controlling the justice department not worry about that from Hawaii.
  2. They would much rather talk to Lockheed now about disobeying the law and let Jay Carney try to answer Jake Tapper’s questions than hit a President Romney over the job losses.
  3. They would much rather talk about a 7.8% jobs figure during the month of October and then wait for the “adjusted figures” in a month or two, than have to deal with one more month of defending 8% on the campaign trail.
  4. They would much rather take those untraced credit card contributions with the security codes off, then explain why the money isn’t there for those 30 second attack ads.
  5. They would much rather deal with a GOP congress investigating the administration on Fast & Furious, Libya, Solyndra et/al then have a GOP congress ignore them as old news of the last administration.

And while the Media would “question the timing” if a GOP candidate was running for re-election the Obama campaign knows the media will question the questioning instead.

It’s like the old Joke Tip O’Neill told in his book about the bartender calling the owner to see if Casey is good for a drink:

Owner: Has he had it?

Bartender: Yes

Owner: Then he’s good for it.

Now my father was a principled man who wouldn’t do a dishonest thing if you paid him (and on occasion suffered dearly for his refusal to do so but that’s another story) but if you believe with hundreds of millions of dollars at stake and power few people can imagine the Chicago Crowd is going to have any restraints.

Then you’re at worst in the tank or at best a sucker.

You are not of the body!

Star Trek: The return of the Archons 1967

A lot has been said and written about this New Yorker cover

But there is one thing that I’d like to add to the conversation.

When I saw this cover, my first thought wasn’t, of Clint Eastwood, nor the President’s debate performance or even how important it is for the left to acknowledge the debate as it was rather than coming up with Romney Cheating nonsense, Jim Lehrer critiques or racial theories concerning the performance.

My first thought was this:

That’s clever, I wonder who did the phony cover?

Ponder that for a moment, My instincts told me that cover could NOT have been the actual New Yorker cover, that our friends on the left were incapable of this kind of critique of the president, that given the last several years the idea that one could poke fun at Barack Obama in any substantive fashion that didn’t involve how bright or wonderful he was, simply did not exist in the liberal mindset. In my mind it would be as foreign to them and as unthinkable as would desecration of the sacramental Host of the Body of Christ would be to me.

I looked at the politico story concerning this, I wanted to know how our liberal friends were reacting, there were zingers such as “they should have drawn and empty chair in one side and Pinocchio in the other” to the fantastic “Obama threw it in purpose, it will help him.” But out of 34 comments I saw only two attacking the New Yorker (and one of the two was from a gentleman of the right being ironic.

That it took until I saw the cover on the New Yorker’s own site to believe it says more about the last 4 years and the media than anything else, and it explains why Greg Sargent’s nonsense about “unemployment truthers” and “panic” is just that.

The reality is we have seen a MSM so biased toward this administration that OF COURSE we reflectively assume that such a cover had to be parody

We have reached a point with this administration’s mendacity is so great that of course we don’t buy their last-minute “miraculous” jobs report.

So if Greg “I’ll publish anything media matters gives me”, Or Dave “Yes I was part of Journolist but Stacy & DaTechGuy still like me” Weigel want to create a “Brither/Truther” meme go ahead. Let the atlantic and Think Progress and all of the far left join you.

I suspect Jack Welch as former head of GE has more credibility on the issue than all of you put together.

“I am doing nothing more than raising the question,” Mr. Welch said. “It’s fact-based.”

Here are Mr. Welch’s facts. To hold the unemployment rate even as the population grows, he said, the economy needs to add between 150,000 and 200,000 jobs a month.

“We haven’t reached those numbers at all,” Mr. Welch said. Employers added a seasonally adjusted 114,000 jobs in September, down from a revised 142,000 jobs in August. The economy, however, has added 143,000 jobs a month after revisions this year.

Your reaction and the New Yorker Cover have become ample proof that the emperor not only has no clothes, but even those in the court are now willing to say it.

And THAT is a game changer.

Sorta Update: (after post scheduled but before it posted) It looks like Powerline & the Anchoress got there before me and this quote from Neo Neocon says it all:

Freedom of the press is one of the liberties for which Americans have fought and died, and yet the free press freely entered into this arrangement, of its own free will—in order to get “access,” a place at the very best cocktail parties, and to further their self-appointed mission of “telling a conflicted people a higher truth.”

This week DaTechGuy on DaRadio broadcasts live from the American Products store as we are on hand for the 3rd Fall American Arts-Crafts-Products and Services Show taking place at the American Products Store 87 Main Street – that’s Route 9- in Cherry Valley

We’ll talk to the owner and spend some more time talking about the debate and about living in Realville.

In our second hour our guest is Bishop EW Jackson who has called on Christians to leave the Democrat party

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He’s going to show you the bricks. He’ll show you they got straight sides. He’ll show you how they got the right shape. He’ll show them to you in a very special way, so that they appear to have everything a brick should have. But there’s one thing he’s not gonna show you. When you look at the bricks from the right angle, they’re as thin as this playing card. His whole case is an illusion, a magic trick.

My Cousin Vinny 1992

Remain Calm, all is well

Animal House 1978

 

We are now more than 24 hours out of the Obama/Romney and the full impact of the Media & the Obama campaign’s brief visit to Realville is still rippling though the political community.

For months the Obama Campaign and the Media have crafted a carefully built house of cards that Barack Obama has been in the lead for months and that the GOP had no chance.

Their weapons were polls skewed even more that the shots of the villains hideout in the old Batman series and the control of the narrative that the media can shape.

But on Wednesday 65 million people+ saw Mitt Romney next to Barack Obama, unfiltered, face to face and they liked what they saw.

The excuses poured out. Oh it was the altitude, oh Jim Lehrer didn’t do his job (apparently this job is to carry the Democrat Candidate see David Gregory and the 2nd part of the Scott Brown Elizabeth Warren), Romney was using “racist dog whistles“, oh and Romney was just a big fat liar etc etc etc.

The real problem is an economy that is in horrible shape

The real problem is even with skewed polls people think the country is in the wrong direction

The real problem is each day more facts on Libya come out damaging to the administrations narrative

Mike Barnicle on Morning Joe yesterday alone noted the lack of his teleprompter. But the real problem has been the lack of a competent president

The real problem is the empty Chair that Clint Eastwood debated showed up Wednesday.

And now the Tens of millions of people who don’t follow the fight every day like you dear reader, saw the emperor with no clothes and then went back to their lives immune to the agreed counter message the left/whitehouse/msm is now coordinating.

And people are figuring it out. Three examples:

Remember AARP booing of Paul Ryan at their convention. The media pushed that story. But they didn’t do much pushing on their coordination with the Obama administration in passing Obamacare

Thanks to just-released emails from the House Energy and Commerce Committee, we now know that AARP worked through 2009-10 as an extension of a Democratic White House, toiling daily to pass a health bill that slashes $716 billion from Medicare, strips seniors of choice, and sets the stage for rationing. We know that despite AARP’s awareness that its seniors overwhelmingly opposed the bill, the “nonpartisan membership organization” chose to serve the president’s agenda.

The 71 pages of emails show an AARP management taking orders from the White House, scripting the president’s talking points, working to keep its board “in line,” and pledging fealty to “the cause.” Seniors deserve to know all this, as AARP seeks to present itself as neutral in this presidential election.

You didn’t hear much of this unless you read blogs like Bill Jacobson’s but Wednesday President Obama invoked the support of AARP on stage and AARP didn’t like it:

“While we respect the rights of each campaign to make its case to voters, AARP has never consented to the use of its name by any candidate or political campaign. AARP is a nonpartisan organization and we do not endorse political candidates nor coordinate with any candidate or political party.

Simple question: Even if the president had a bad day, does AARP throw Barack Obama under the bus if they see him winning?

We’ve been told that Barack Obama has a huge advantage in early voting, we’ve seen poll after poll talking about how even if Romney “turns things around” too many people have already voted.

Yet here are the reports that we’ve seen in the last few days:

While in 2008, 33 percent of the 1,158,301 absentee ballots went to Democrats and just 19 percent to registered Republicans, a 14-point gap, this year 29 percent are being requested by Democrats and 24 percent by Republicans, a five-point gap.

What could be worse for Obama?

University of Dayton Professor Larry Schweikart told American Majority Action President Ned Ryun that the GOP gains favor Romney. “Although it is early, we will soon be at a point where–assuming Republicans vote for Romney–the Democrats will have to overwhelmingly win all the remaining early voting just to be even on November 6. But, given Ohio’s voting history, if the numbers are even close after early voting, Obama will lose, and possibly lose big.”

And the Guardian:

A Guardian survey of six of the most crucial swing states upon which the outcome of the presidential ballot is likely to depend has found that new voter registrations recorded between January and August this year are markedly down compared with the same period in 2008. The drop is particularly pronounced in several states for the Democrats – a likely indication that Barack Obama’s re-election team has been unable to match the exceptional levels of voter excitement generated by his candidacy four years ago.

and of course Rasmussen poll which shows the GOP registration at its second highest number ever.

Question: If the president is doing so well, where are all these republicans coming from?

Finally as I’ve said before, as we get closer and closer to the finish line, time becomes the one commodity you can’t get more of, so every second is precious.

Yesterday President Obama coming off his disastrous performance in Denver had a large and successful rally at least through the eyes of a fan:

When Obama arrives, looking casual in khakis and a jacket, the clouds literally part. Good grief, does this guy have even the sun on his campaign payroll? Surveying the huge audience, he gets them eating out of his hand from the start: “I’ve been told this is good practice for Halloween on State Street!”

This is not the subdued, diplomatic Obama of the presidential debate. Offering a clue about the way he’ll spend the month before the election, the president lights into Mitt Romney with gusto. Referring to Romney’s overeager debate performance, he says, “I met this very spirited fellow who looked like Mitt Romney.” The conceit is that this “fellow” wasn’t the real Romney, having masked his views to appear more moderate.

Aside from this new material on the debate, much of what Obama says is familiar: “We can’t afford to double-down on the same trickle-down policies that got us into this mess.” “We succeed when everyone has a shot.” But he delivers his message so fiercely that you fear for Mitt Romney’s safety at the next debate.

Obama has the crowd screaming as he turns up the heat at the end of his speech. “I’m not fighting to create Democratic or Republican jobs, I’m fighting to create American jobs!”

A pretty picture, but the problem isn’t the picture it’s where the picture is being taken.

The rally was in Madison Wisconsin, a state that just last month the media reported polls showing a double digit lead for the President.

Question: If the polls are correct as reported, why is the president spending one of the few precious days left in this campaign in a supposedly safe blue state?

The answer to all of these things is simple, the Obama Campaign like the Obama presidency has been what it always has been, a con, grift, an illusion. Take off the media filter and you see things as they are.

And when you see things as they are, there is only one thing to do

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

Or as Stacy McCain might say: “Keep up the skeer”

Right now a lot of pundits are giving a lot of reasons why Mitt Romney won tonight.

President Obama didn’t attack enough

Jim Lehrer didn’t control the debate

Romney dodged his base

etc etc etc

These are all important points, but people are forgetting something.

In every poll even the ones so skewed that it you would guess they were taken at the SEIU vs NAACP charity softball game the Right Track/Wrong Track Numbers are upside down for the President.

The American People want an excuse to replace this president, Mitt Romney needed do to one basic thing, show the American People that he is an acceptable and competent alternative.

That’s a very low threshold and he didn’t just clear it, he pole vaulted over it having numbers and details at his fingertips, as befits his nature

The people are dying to vote against President Obama, they just needed a reason to do so, Mitt Romney gave them that.

My advice to my friends on the right?

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

Now is the time to finish this guy off.

Update: Late night Instalanche Hi all, Three things:

1. I have a special edition of DaTechGuy on DaRadio coming up 1 p.m. EST on WCRN AM 830 listen live at wcrnradio.com

2. Saturday I will be doing my show live from the American Products Store’s American Crafts show. The Crafts event is from 9-3 I’ll be broadcasting from 10-noon 187 Main Street – that’s Route 9- in Cherry Valley

3. On Saturday Oct 20th we will have our 100th show, we are broadcasting live from Lago’s Ristorante Mill Street Worcester, we will be broadcasting 10 to noon and staying till two meeting with listeners and providing a free brunch. If you would like to go just click the ticket below and reserve a spot because seating is limited

And don’t forget I have subscription commentaries now available, if you want to see a teaser of the latest one click here.

Update 2: Consider this from Jonah:

David Freddoso who said on Twitter that if all you knew about Romney was what you saw in Obama’s TV ads, you’d get the sense that Obama’s been lying to you all this time. Romney helped himself tonight — possibly a lot.

At first I wouldn’t believe, because I was a Norman I wouldn’t let myself believe…

Olivia DeHavilland The Adventures of Robin Hood 1938

JOURNALIST: Public opinion-made to order.

DIZ*: Yeah, Taylor-made.

Mr. Smith Goes to Washington 1938

This morning I briefly linked to Ann Althouse’s piece as an update to my bit on polling and narratives, but the more I think about it the more I see real significance in her blog post that deserves attention.

Let’s start with the title:

What’s the birther/truther word for those who think political polls have become, basically, propaganda?

Right off we see an equivalence between “birthers” (those who think President Obama was not born in Hawaii) and Truthers (Those who believe we attacked ourselves on 9/11 as part of a grand conspiracy) and those who doubt the polls,  A person not reading the rest of this would naturally think this post was dismissive of those who question the pollsters

Pollers? Pollemicists? Poller bears? The Poller Opposites? Help me out.

It sounds like she is going to have some fun with those rubes who doubt, Johnathan Chait would be happy

I need a good coinage for the condition I’ve found myself lapsing into.

…right up until the point when it becomes apparent that she is one of those people

Here’s the latest symptom.

Note the use of the word, “symptom” she is describing a disease, a problem something that must be cured

I think I saw somewhere this morning — on Drudge? — that CNN had the presidential race suddenly tightening up, in advance of the polls.  And my first thought — I just blurted it out loud

Again, note the phrase:  “Just blurted it out loud“, no careful consideration, no weighing of evidence she just reacted .

— was: They’re saying it’s close right in advance of the debate so they can say, after the debate, that Obama went up. He won the debate.

Ann Althouse is a prominent law professor, an academic, she’s not just some Cheetos eating blogger.  Law professors just don’t do this kind of thing.  She continues:

I went over to Drudge to look for what I’d seen, and I didn’t find that but I found:

Under oath, Edwards pollster admits polls were ‘propaganda’…

POLL: Plurality of Americans believe POLLS biased for Obama…

Althouse is a lawyer, he understand the difference between circumstantial evidence and admissible evidence.

And here’s what I remember seeing this morning that brought on my pollemic

Again pollemic a word signifying something unreasonable.

: “New CNN/ORC poll less skewed for Barack Obama than the previous one.”
The survey, that includes a smaller eight percent over-sample of Democratic voters, has Obama leading by a 49 percent to 47 percent edge….

The news here is not that this poll is slightly skewed, but compared to the 15.4 percent skewed in favor of the Democrats in the controversial September 10 CNN/ORC poll, this latest one is based on a far less skewed sample.

Note she states as fact that the previous poll was badly skewed, (and yes it was) and she points out that the subsequent poll is skewed “far less”

And then comes the full Maid Marian, the moment of realization

See? I think they adjust the skew to get the result that suits the propaganda purpose, and they’re temporarily making the race look tight to make the debate seem super-important. (That’s good for CNN’s ratings, so there’s a commercial, nonpolitical reason too for poll fakery.) Then they can make a show of breaking the news that Obama got big debate bounce.

Now why is this any more important than any other, take a look at the language here, Ann Althouse is an Obama voter from 2008 who insists that given the same information at the time she still would have voted for him, but month after month she has seen what she has seen, in fact during the entire Scott Walker business she was in the middle of it. Being a reasonable person she didn’t want to believe, she didn’t want to think that we had reached this point in our political and media discourse, but she saw first had the difference between reality as it is and reality as our media present it, till finally at an instinctive level when exposed to it she can’t restrain herself anymore. No matter how much she would rather it not be so, she finds herself crying aloud like the child in the farie tale: “The Emperor has no Clothes”

I think there are millions of Ann Althouse/Maid Marions who have come to realizations that they would rather have not over the last few years. And I think the media has only itself to blame.

Ann Welcome to realville.

Yesterday I saw a poll out of New Hampshire, that was so unbelievable no incredible in its results that I thought it impossible that a TV station or a college would report it.

With one month remaining before the November 6 election, Barack Obama has opened up a statistically significant lead over Mitt Romney in the battleground state of New Hampshire. In the most recent Granite State Poll, 52% of likely New Hampshire voters plan to vote for Obama, 37% say they will support Romney,

There were so incredible that WMUR the TV station that commissioned the poll led their analysis thus:

The latest WMUR Granite State Poll is either wildly off or we will look back five weeks from now on Election Day and point to this date as the moment we knew Mitt Romney lost New Hampshire.

They are hedging on their own poll. My first thought was bad party splits, I was rather shocked to see an equal party metric in this poll. As this so greatly contradicts what I’ve seen on the ground I continued to look at the numbers and found these figures on the 2008 election within the sample:

215 McCain Palin Voters
309 Obama Biden Voters
14 Other
38 Did not vote 2008

That totals up to 576 people in the sample. How does that split? Here is the math

215/576 = 37.3% McCain Palin
309/576 = 53.6% Obama Biden
14/576 = 2.4% Other
38/576 = 6.5% Did not vote

Difference 53.6- 37.3= 16.3

So you have a sample with a bias of 16.3 points in terms of 2008 voters that is now +15, that would indicate a slight loss of support, but strangely enough they didn’t include a question on their votes in 2010. Just to remind you here is what happened in the state house that year:

Maybe it’s just me but I think this poll might be a tad more informative if it included how the respondents voted in 2010

It’s worth noting that a previous poll from the same group in Aug had a much different sample

McCain Palin 220/529 = 41.5
Obama Biden 259/529= 48.9%
Other 21/529 = 3.9%
Did not vote 29/529= 5.4%

Do you see the magic trick, you play with a sample and suddenly you have a trend. As I predicted after the booing God debacle:

Do not be surprised if there is a negative bounce from this convention or a poll released with a Dem +6-12 in order to hide just how bad things are.

And that’s what we’ve seen, polls so skewed that we have a convention bounce supposedly from a Clinton Speech that nobody watched because it was opposite a football game.

But even such BS can’t go on for long, particularly when people are finally catching on with the poll manipulation.

So what is the Liberal media et/al to do?

Well if it’s harder to see Romney behind everywhere put out a national poll that is close (+3 Obama with a +8 Obama 2008 sample & +6 D sample) to show our bona fides then as it’s harder to sell Romney behind everywhere in Florida suddenly usa a D+2 sample instead of the +9, in Virgina go D+5 instead of D + ungodly while in Ohio the state we’ve been saying Romney HAS to win we show Romney down 11 with a sample that is 50% dem and 39% +11.D and violá we have exactly what we need to be credible:

A more “balanced” poll showing a slight Romney trend without losing the “Mitt in Trouble” narrative.

The best part of it for the MSM? The media can by playing the sample game can generate the trend they want and will do so as long as they believe they can affect the results. The moment they decide it can’t be pulled off will be the dawn of Media Credibility day when the mission changes as it did the day before the 2010 elections:

So instead their new mission is to be perceived as actually reporting news rather than spinning it. Thus comes media credibility day, the day the press decides to act like actual reporters instead of liberal advocates, it will last long enough for them to claim that they called the election correctly…

And the moment the election is over

…then it will be back to the MSM that we all know and…well that we all know.

That will be the tell.

Update: Ann Althouse got there before me:

Thanks to some upload problems with some of my videos from the Ma-3 debate between Jon Golnik and Rep Nikki Tsongas I ended up missing most of Morning Joe, and due to some arrangements for my 100th Show event (You’re invited ticket at the bottom of this post BTW) I missed most of Morning Joe yesterday and with the big debate in Lowell between Scott Brown I only had time to note in passing the oddities of the latest Washington Post poll as an update to an already written piece:

If you are going to make a declaration in your poll you need to provide at least the cross tabs to be checked, like the Boston Globe poll.

Apparently while I was busy shooting photos, interviewing folks at the debate and etc a huge national debate over that Washington Post poll took place

Chuck Todd was ridiculing people who believe there is a media conspiracy. Meanwhile, his own network has dragged its feet on coverage of the administration’s disastrous handling of Libya and, well, he works for MSNBC.

That doesn’t bother me all that much in once sense, after all if media of national standing (or whatever standing MSNBC has) are answering you, that says where the debate is, but then this morning as I went through the posts I needed to do, I saw this bit revelation via Red State from the Post:

Out of 929 registered voters in the new poll, 161 live in one of these eight states, with a margin of sampling error of eight points.

Erick Erickson does the basic math

In short, the Washington Post conducted a national poll and discovered that 161 of those surveyed lived in swing states. Charitably — and Cohen does not break it down — that would work out to 20 voters polled in each of 8 swing states. TWENTY!!!

So there’s an 11 point gap among 161 people with a margin of error of around 8%. But the Washington Post reported this as a fact

So let me get this straight, the media that has called bloggers members of the Cheetos Brigade as Joe Scarborough did, the media that says we are in a “parallel universe“, the same media that called us conspiracy theorists when we dared point out the mathematics problems with the polls, some even admitted by pollsters. The same media that pooh poohed the nine year stats of voter registration , the media that has maximum access to the voters and large corporations to back them up.

This same media is using their national microphone to report as fact an 11 point lead for Barack Obama in swing states based on a twenty voters per state?

Pardon my language but ARE YOU FRIGGIN KIDDING ME?

Yes I’m a blogger, yes I don’t have a degree in journalism, writing or even English (BS Computer Science Minor American History) Yes I’m actually typing this in my bed wearing my underwear as per the stereotype because that’s when I scan the news in the morning and do my writing before I get myself ready to go out and do everything else.

But I damn well know you can’t judge a lead in swing states based on a sample so small per state that it couldn’t fill the 5th street diner.

Erickson again

Perhaps instead of being insulting, he, a former staffer for Tom Harkin’s Presidential campaign and whose wife was or is a Democratic operative, should acknowledge conservative distrust of the media and try to explain how the polls are shaped, skewed, weighted or not, and the general methodology.

It is my nature to believe the best of people but if anyone ANYONE actually believes that this media is not collectively trying to give this race to Barack Obama they are suckers.

And with all due respect to the opinion of Gov Christie I think it is vital to call these guys out on it, not because of a single election but because it is damaging to our democracy and to the first amendment to ignore this.

I’m a Republican, I’m with Mitt Romney, but when, in my opinion I thought Mitt was the weakest of the GOP candidates I called him out on it, and took flack for it from my side.

I’m with Scott Brown, but when I saw the WBUR poll that gave Elizabeth Warren a lead correctly reflected state voter registration I complemented them on it and took flack for it from my side.

I’m with Jon Golnik but when I said he did not win the debate Sunday against Nikki Tsongas I took flack for it from my side.

I could have ignored these things and wrote on something else but I said them anyway because I live in realville and THESE THINGS ARE TRUE!

My name is on this blog, I owe it to my name to say what I see and think is accurate.

I live off of the tip jar hits and subscriptions people make here and off the ads people buy, I owe it to those people to give them not just a quality product but a product as accurate as I can based on my observations and reporting.

I am a partisan and want my side to win, I owe them a fair critique so if they know how to fix problems they might have so they can win.

If you are a member of the MSM and you have a byline I don’t mind if you have a bias, I don’t even have a problem if you want Obama to win, but I do mind if you for the sake of that bias and that desire to re-elect Obama, report without question bad data or skewed data and then go after those who call you on it.

That is simply disgraceful, dishonest and dishonorable and you should be ashamed of yourselves for prostituting yourself in this way.

Until you change your ways, don’t you dare DARE treat me and my friends in a condescending way.

As I mentioned I live off of my tip jar hits and subscribers, if you think my coverage is worth it, I would highly appreciate it if you considered kicking in to help pay the bills. The car that took me to the Brown Warren debate goes into the shop tomorrow and I had to pull a grand from the business to cover basic house bills this month, any amount would be appreciated




150 Subscribers at the lowest level pays the monthly house bills, 300 allows me to start rebuilding savings and 500 will pay for travel to cover national issues








And if you are in the Worcester area on the 20th, join me for the 100th show and the brunch to follow.

UPDATE: The worst poll EVAH! These guys are trying their best do hide it but I’m sorry if you poll a sample with a +17.2 point advantage of people who voted Obama in 2008, a result that gets you a +15 Obama lead in 2012 is not a surprise it’s almost a foregone conclusion. Note the same poll in Aug that showed Obama up +3 had a +7.3 Obama 2008 vs McCain 2008 voter split

The Simpsons have been on TV for a very long time. A lot of people have seen this scene of Homer voting for Obama:

But registering for McCain

And while 29 Million plus have seen this fictional account there is a little bit of reality that has not gotten the same attention:

For some reason this video hasn’t gone viral. Funny I would think this would be of interest to the news media, but then again there are a lot of interesting things that don’t get a lot of play like this interesting tidbit of information:

You read that correctly: In any attempted poll or survey, only 9% of attempted contacts come back with an actual response.

That means 91% of sampled households are NOT having their opinions recorded by pollsters.

Now personally I think not answering polls are foolish but the math is the math and reality is reality, so when I see polls the the Washington Post poll that says this:

This time, the issue isn’t sampling — at least not in the national polling. The D/R/I is only a D+3 at 33/30/33, a pretty reasonable model for this year’s election. That’s right in between the 2008 and 2010 exit polling results.

The big gap on swing states makes less sense, though. The biggest non-swing states should favor Obama — California, New York, and Illinois, with Texas being the only large non-swing state that is firmly in the Republican column. Romney will win the South easily, but Obama gets the whole West Coast and most of New England, too. Without a chance to see the samples in each state and the demographic breakout, I’m a little skeptical that Romney could be losing by eleven in the swing states but only by two nationwide.

If you are going to make a declaration in your poll you need to provide at least the cross tabs to be checked, like the Boston Globe poll.

I crunched the numbers and found the sample split thus D-36.5% R-14.2 Other -48.3%.

The Democrat numbers match registration but the GOP numbers are up 3 points from the latest state figures, while it is certainly possible that the GOP has gained a bit (after all when you are as low as the party is you can only go up) this poll certainly has not played games with registration numbers to get Liz Warren ahead. If that is the case Scott Brown might need to do some tweaking (I’m suggested some already)

Reality reality involves looking at things as they are, for example the one commodity that neither campaign can get more of before election day is Time and that time has to be spent where support is needed, thus the question.

Why is Obama postponing a trip to Columbus, Ohio to come to Madison, Wisconsin the day after the first debate?

This is for all the marbles, does a candidate really waste a day that he can’t replace in this way?

If you want to dispute my take on the polls, fine make your case, but the math is the math and the reality is the reality and don’t think for one moment that either the Obama campaign or the Romney Campaign doesn’t know where this race is.

Don’t watch what they say, watch what they DO. That is the only way you can afford a home in realville.

Update: And Stacy McCain tells you, there are papers in Realville too.

Update 2: Speaking of realville, Brian Preston finds PPP doesn’t have an apartment in that town in North Carolina.

How does PPP arrive at this 48-48 tie? Looking at page three, we find the answer: Democrats make up 48% of the respondents, while Republicans only make up 34%.

Is it possible that Democrats outnumber Republicans by 14%, and will vote that way on November 6, in North Carolina?

Sure, it’s possible. It’s also possible that space monkeys will descend from their base on one of Jupiter’s moons to declare a cheese war on the US Virgin Islands tomorrow.

Well that would explain the lack of security in Libya, the administration is preparing for the Virgin Islands Cheese wars.

Well NBC has a new poll out and Morning Joe is simply salivating:

President Barack Obama leads Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, and the two are locked in tight contests in Nevada and North Carolina, according to a new series of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls released Thursday.

Obama is ahead of Romney, 51 percent to 44 percent, among likely voters in New Hampshire. He also edges Romney in Nevada and North Carolina, but within the margin of error.

In Nevada, Obama gets the support of 49 percent of likely voters and Romney gets 47 percent. In North Carolina, it’s Obama at 48 percent and Romney at 46 percent. (Among registered voters in all three states, Obama’s lead expands to 8 points in New Hampshire, 4 points in North Carolina, and a wider 7 points in Nevada.)

I hate to put a damper on our friends on the left, even those who consider us “Poll deniers” or “Poll truthers” but as a resident of Realville I look at reality and here is what I see in this NBC/Marist poll, lets start with New Hampshire:

That’s a 46-40 split in a state where just two years ago Kelly Ayotte won a senate seat by 23 points.

And supposedly this is the case even though this very same poll show the right track wrong track numbers thus:

Because when people think the country is going in the wrong direction by 7 pts 51-44 their reaction is ALWAYS “stay the course”.

Last NH thought, before you start screaming how Obama won New Hampshire in 2008 lets take a look at what happened in 2010:

Yeah that’s a state where the 2008 paradigm is in play

Now lets try North Carolina that supposedly has a +2 Obama figure:

Here is the right track/wrong track

Yeah 41-54 right track wrong track SURE these guys are winning, here is the partisan split:

48-42 plus 6 Dem sample in North Carolina, now lets look at what happened in NC in 2010

Yeah that is another state that is going all 2008 in November:

Now lets look at Nevada, again lets start with Right Track / Wrong Track:

14 points, Obama is up 2 with a right track/wrong track deficit of 14 points.

Lets look at the partisan split:

47-42 plus 5 dem. now lets see what Nevada did in 2010

The GOP picked up two seats in 2010 enough and the Governor’s mansion enough to sustain any veto during the election where Harry Reid managed a massive turnout to save his seat. Interestingly enough while 52% of the vote was cast by the GOP the Democrats kept a majority.

But hey the still held the legislature in a GOP wave election, does that mean Obama is actually going to do well in the statewide vote. I’m glad you asked. Interestingly there was another election in Nevada on September 13th 2011. An election for the Nevada 2nd district surely this would show the power of Barack Obama…

…or not.

But this STILL doesn’t mean that these polls are off after all we have a record of polling accurate polling in Nevada right? PPP did a poll just the day before the election and it showed Amodei winning:

Ok Sure we showed a 13 point margin when the election had a 22 pt spread but we had the winner right and THAT means our polling is accurate!

———————–

This is what we in Realville call “Math” if Eugene Robinson wants to call it a conspiracy theory and Morning Joe wants to make fun of it, bless their hearts as they say down south.

The data is the data and all the pretending otherwise from people who didn’t see 2010 coming and insisted the GOP were fools to support Pat Toomey or Marco Rubio doesn’t change it.

Update: Yup the focus on registration in samples is a conspiracy theory, it’s so ridiculous so foolish and so delusional that Gallup finds it necessary to reassure folks:

The discussion of the party identification composition of poll samples comes up in every presidential election with which I’ve been involved. Interested observers often opine that when a given poll shows that Candidate X is ahead, it cannot be correct because there is a higher percentage of voters who identify with Candidate X’s party in the sample than there should be, based on comparison to some previous standard.

There are several reasons why this is a faulty approach to evaluating a poll’s results.

He makes his case and I encourage you all to read it and make up your own minds, but there was one bit that jumped out at me that really gives away the game:

Now if a given poll in Ohio in this election shows Obama with a 10-percentage-point lead, one should just ask, “How likely is it that Obama would be ahead by 10 points if he won by five points in 2008?” — forgetting party identification, which we assume is going to be higher for the Democratic Party if Obama is ahead, anyway.

It’s totally backwards, people join or leave a party based on changes in what they think or believe, that the cause of a voting pattern, this gentleman treats it as an effect.

Now I don’t claim to be a professional poll guy. I don’t work at Gallup and the only people paying me are my advertisers and tip jar hitters. I trust my readers. If you decide he’s right and I’m all wet, that’s fine, if you think I’m right that’s fine too. I’m more than happy to see what happens when the votes are counted and we find out who is right.

But the math is the math and no computer model can change it.

Many years ago there were only the major papers and the three big networks, so when a poll like the current CBS/NYT Quinnipiac poll that Morning Joe is reporting as the doom of the Romney Campaign would never be questioned. Instead you would only see these results:

but those days are gone and the new media is alive so while the Morning Joe table continues to do their victory dance I took a look at these polls from Florida, Ohio & Pennsylvania and on the very last line of the very last page Found the following:

So with a sample that is D+9 in Florida, Barack Obama has a +9 lead on Mitt Romney! In Ohio with a D+9 Sample Obama has a +10 Lead and in Pennsylvania with a D+11 sample he has +12 lead.

Now I have absolutely no trouble believing these states are close nor to I disagree that Mitt Romney should be more aggressive but come ON guys?

By an odd coincidence the last time this poll came out Hugh Hewett questioned Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Polls and asked him about this (emphasis mine):

Hugh Hewett: But I don’t know how that goes to the issue, Peter, so help me. I’m not being argumentative, I really want to know. Why would guys run a poll with nine percent more Democrats than Republicans when that percentage advantage, I mean, if you’re trying to tell people how the state is going to go, I don’t think this is particularly helpful, because you’ve oversampled Democrats, right?

Peter Brown: But we didn’t set out to oversample Democrats. We did our normal, random digit dial way of calling people. And there were, these are likely voters. They had to pass a screen. Because it’s a presidential year, it’s not a particularly heavy screen.

HH: And so if, in fact, you had gotten a hundred Democrats out of a hundred respondents that answered, would you think that poll was reliable?

PB: Probably not at 100 out of 100.

HH: Okay, so if it was 75 out of 100…

PB: Well, I mean…

HH: I mean, when does it become unreliable? You know you’ve just put your foot on the slope, so I’m going to push you down it. When does it become unreliable?

PB: Like the Supreme Court and pornography, you know it when you see it.

HH: Well, a lot of us look at a nine point advantage in Florida, and we say we know that to be the polling equivalent of pornography. Why am I wrong?

PB: Because what we found when we made the actual calls is this kind of party ID.

HH: Do you expect Democrats, this is a different question, do you, Peter Brown, expect Democrats to have a nine point registration advantage when the polls close on November 6th in Florida?

PB: Well, first, you don’t mean registration.

HH: I mean, yeah, turnout.

PB: Do I think…I think it is probably unlikely.

Mind you this is the guy who actually does the poll saying this

Let me close with this bit from the American Spectator and an exchange between Ben Bradlee and Ed Rollins from 2004

A few weeks later, the Washington Post ran a story that confirmed Rollins’ initial beliefs. The Post confessed that… well… oops… it had made a mistake with those California polling numbers. Shortly afterward came the November election, with California once again giving Reagan a more than 16 point victory. In fact, Reagan carried 49 states, winning the greatest landslide victory in presidential history while losing Minnesota in — yes — a close race. Mondale had 49.72% to Reagan’s 49.54%, a difference of .18% that might have been changed by all that money that went into California. Making Reagan the first president in history to win all fifty states.

After the [2004] election, Ed Rollins ran into the Washington Post’s blunt-speaking editor Ben Bradlee and “harassed” Bradlee “about his paper’s lousy polling methodology.”

Bradlee’s “unrepentant” response?

“Tough sh…t, Rollins, I’m glad it cost you plenty. It’s my in-kind contribution to the Mondale campaign.”

Got that?

Now that election wasn’t close, this election will be a lot closer. Is this an in-kind contribution for The One? You tell me.

This is why the MSM will always hate the New Media, in Ben Bradlee’s day they would never be called on this. Today we will call them on it every single day.

Update: I can’t believe I forgot to check the numbers with independents but it’s make this poll even MORE of a joke:

Here is the split among independents in Florida according to the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll

In Ohio


They don’t provide figures in Pa which I found strange but lets ask the obvious question

How do you reconcile +9 point Obama leads if Romney leads with BOTH independents & Republicans? And do you REALLY believe that Obama is doing better among democrats than Romney is among republicans by enough to make up for that difference. Do you REALLY?

John Nolte puts it best:

Florida:

In 2004 the vote was R+4.
In 2008 the vote was D+3
CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9.

Ohio:
In 2004 the vote was R+5
In 2008 the vote was D+8
CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9

Pennsylvania:

In 2010 the vote was D+3
In 2008 the vote was D+7
CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9.

Again, why won’t the media report the dramatic news that Democrats are expected to turnout in record numbers against Republicans?

Because the media doesn’t believe it.

This isn’t reporting, this is propaganda and frankly after Romney wins should be treated as an in-kind contribution to the DNC, these are also not the tactics of a side that is winning.

Update 2:
Stacy McCain is less diplomatic than me

journalism is also my profession, and the fact that I’m pursuing it on a blog doesn’t change my astonishment at the utter shamelessness of these people. As usual this morning, I’ve been watching MSNBC and I think this would be an accurate headline:

QUINNIPIAC POLL SHOWS OBAMA
LEADING BY 10 POINTS IN OHIO;
OBJECTIVE JOURNALIST CHUCK TODD
‘SPORTING A WOODY’ ON LIVE TV

It’s really that bad. I watch MSNBC so you don’t have to, and their crew is practically breaking out the champagne to celebrate these poll numbers. Their smug self-satisfied glee makes me want Romney to stomp Obama so bad that Chuck Todd is crying like a little girl on Election Night.

Is that a Neutral and Objective urge?

Perhaps not, but at least I’m honest about it, and there’s that old thing about “afflicting the comfortable.” Keep in mind that Chuck Todd is not just a partisan talking-head MSNBC commentator; he is political director of NBC News.

I can’t wait to see the explanations come election day.

Update 4: Neo Neocon notes that Quinnipiac has a different defination of Big Red Flag than I do

From what Brown says, Quinnipiac doesn’t stratify its polls unless there’s a huge red flag staring them in the face. But Gallup does. Its accuracy would depend on what parameters it uses for stratification, and how well they reflect reality.

Or maybe a dem skew is considered a “huge blue flag” so that’s OK.

If it’s day ending in “y” we have a poll showing Mitt Romney in terrible shape:

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters finds little good news for Mitt Romney but a race that remains competitive.

Obama leads 50 percent to 47 percent, which is within the margin of error. His 50 percent job approval rating puts him at a crucial threshold for an incumbent seeking reelection. It’s an uptick from the spring and summer, but 48 percent still disapprove.

It’s interesting to note that on TV this split being played up a lot more than in the written story. On Morning Joe this was evidence Mitt Romney DOOM! (no video available yet)

However Dalek Media not withstanding I live in realville and in realville we judge polls by their internals and the internals of this poll have two results that say a lot:

Let’s zoom in on that

So we have a poll with a 43-40 sample D + 3 but lets look even closer at the internals. They asked a really good question:


Which of these statements best describes how you have usually voted in past elections:

Not only do you have a 49-45 split D vs R here but look at the straight/strongly numbers and you have D + 7 split.

Let’s remind everyone where the Electorate actually is:

Ok lets give Barack Obama the benefit of the doubt and assume that after the DNC convention who’s most memorable moment is needing a phony vote to put God & Jerusalem back in the platform the 4.3 GOP August advantage has gone back to a 0.9 that existed in July. That still means this poll is off +4 to +5

As I’m typing this Chuck Todd is saying in every “legitimate poll” president Obama is ahead (thus he discounts the new PA poll showing a 2 pt gap but as I haven’t seen internals yet I’m still withholding judgement on it.) so I ask this question to Chuck Todd via Twitter?

I submit and suggest that until the media answers that question, all they are doing is spreading Democrat propaganda.

I don’t pretend I am not unbiased but the numbers are the numbers, if you have the numbers to back up what you say, provide them, if you don’t then you are simply an in-kind contribution to the Barack Obama campaign.

BTW I call the MSM the “Dalek Media” because no matter what MSM show you see they all look alike, all sound alike and if you dare speak words that contradict their liberal narrative this is their reaction:

Update: Latest PPP poll in Florida Obama up +4 but unfortunately for those pushing the poll some of us live in realville and want to see the splits:

Not only do we have a D+8 sample on this poll but when it’s known that Democrats do better with women and the GOP with men this poll has a +6 split women over men.

Update 2: Heard back from the reporter who did the initial story on the PA poll, internals go out tomorrow but he directed me to this link which shows a D+6 sample

First, our ratio of interviews conducted with Republicans and Democrats in our recent polls (49D – 43R) gives Democrats a 6-point advantage based on the fact that Democrats outnumber Republicans in actual registration. However, this ratio is slightly more Republican based on both national and state polling showing that Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats this year given high intensity among Republicans who strongly disapprove of the President’s job performance. Nonetheless, this +6 Democratic advantage is only one point less Democrat than the 7-point advantage these same exit polls gave Democrats in the 2008 presidential election.

Oh and fixed a bad link.