The folks at PEW have released their last poll of the year and their headline seems to be good news for President Obama and bad news for me who has predicted his defeat:

Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign. In the Pew Research Center’s election weekend survey, Obama holds a 48% to 45% lead over Romney among likely voters.

Here is the line from the Poll


Leftist sites are rejoicing at a 3 pt lead with seemingly no time for Romney to change it, I’m sure Nate Silver is already boosting his averages.

Alas for the left, PEW also released their internals and even worse for them I haven’t forgotten how to do basic math so lets look at this last attempt to pretend something is true that isn’t.

First the splits in Party (click to enlarge) :

Pew interviewed 2709 people, 2611 identified themselves as either Republicans Democrats or Independents by their own count 843 Republicans, 1007 democrats and 761 independents. That works out to the following:

Democrats 1007 / 2709 = 37.1%
Republicans 843 / 2709 = 31.1%
Independents 761 / 2709 = 28.8%

So right off the bat we have a poll with a base advantage for Democrats of 6 pts. Even though both Gallup and Rasmussen have told us that the electorate is majority GOP this time around.

That would be enough to laugh this poll off but the mathematical legerdemain doesn’t end there.

All year we were told that this election was going to be who by he who took the independent voters. If you look at this new Pew poll who is leading among independents? Why lo and behold it is….Mitt Romney by 44% to 41% The GOP goes for Romney 91-7 & dems for Obama 94-5

But that doesn’t matter, apparently at this late date the independent vote that was so important just a few months ago doesn’t matter in election 2012 anymore.

That’s strike two but you need three strikes for an out, is there a third one? Guess what, there is!

If we look at the sample in terms of Gender did you know that the electorate in 2012 women are going to outvote men? As there are more women than men that’s not so odd, until you look at the margin… (click to enlarge)

Pew polled 1538 women vs 1171 men. That works out to the following percentages:

Women 1538 /2709 = 56.8
Men 1171 /2709 = 43.2

No wonder the women’s vote is so important! According to PEW apparently women aren’t going to just outvote men in 2012. They are going to do so in this election by 13 whole points! That is pretty interesting, particularly if you look at this chart from a pew study from just 4 years ago

In 2008 Pew reports a 4.2 point turnout advantage over men. Perish the thought, apparently according to THIS poll the 2012 gap is going to make that 2008 figure look positively miniscule…

…if you buy it that is.

OK that’s three strikes, but lets add a throw to first just in case this gets by the Catcher.

Let’s take a closer look at this sample, how representative of the electorate is it? Well one way to find out is to see how this group voted last time around (click to enlarge):

Well look at that a 13 point advantage of Obama voters vs McCain voters, but again this is registered voters, so lets remove those who didn’t vote so we can get down to those likely guys, what would the numbers be?

Obama voters 46 / 86 voters = 53.4%

Ok that seems to mean these voters President Obama took 52.9% of the vote so that’s a full half a point MORE than the president’s share of the vote in 2008

McCain voters 33 / 86 voters = 38.3%

Hmmmm John McCain drew 45.7% of the vote so this figure is a full 7.4 points BELOW John McCain’s vote total from 2008

That a 15.1 point gap in the popular vote that Barack Obama won by 7.2 points, MORE THAN DOUBLE the actual 2008 number. That’s a throw to first to end the inning and the game.

So this is what the Pew poll would have you believe:

#1 We are going to have a D+6 electorate even though all signs indicate the Democrats are not all that thrilled with president Obama but in 2010 the republicans managed historic wins in the states, and the house and big senate wins too.

#2 Even though independents favor Mitt Romney by 3 points in this poll and Republicans are voting 91-7 for Mitt according to their own number the electorate in 2012 is SO democratic that Obama is still up by 3 points

#3 The female electorate on election day is going to outnumber the male electorate by a full 13 points thus negating any advantage that Mitt Romney might have with men.

#4 A sample where the people interviewed supported Obama in 2008 by a figure double than the actual result should be trusted to show us how the electorate will vote in 2012.

There is a phrase to describe this kind of thinking, it’s known as “Willing suspension of disbelief”.

While that is dandy if you are a Doctor Who fan watching the Doctor reverse the polarity of the neutron flow, it doesn’t do a whole lot of good if you are trying to figure out how an election is going to end up in the real world.

The fact that PEW and the left is flogging a D+6 poll with a +13 point sample of women is funny, that this poll shows Romney leading among independents yet has Obama up 3 is funnier, that you are releasing a poll two days before an election that has a sample whose members supported Obama at double the rate of 2008 isn’t just funny it screams one thing:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

This is the type of thing you do when you’ve got nothing else, they’ve got NOTHING and we are going to beat them so bad they are going to wonder why they were so willing to sell their credibility on a candidate as bad as this president.

Update: If you think this is trouble for the left consider the new CNN poll. As Breitbart reports:

Moreover, the polls’s crosstabs indicate that Romney is winning self-described independent voters by a giant 59%-37% margin. A 22-point lead among independents virtually guarantees victory for Romney. Yet Democrats are so heavily over-represented in the CNN poll that Romney’s 22-point lead becomes a mere 49%-49% tie.

Here is the sample:

A total of 1,010 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, telephone usage and whether respondents own or rent their homes. Registered voters were asked questions about their likelihood of voting, past voting behavior, and interest in the campaign; based on answers to those questions, 693 respondents were classified as likely voters. Respondents who reported that they had already cast an absentee ballot or voted early were automatically classified as likely voters. Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.

Media Credibility day not withstanding, if you are going to skew a poll with a D+11 sample to get a tie you might as well get a D+12 sample and give Obama a lead. If you are going to make a fool of yourself, why not?
It has Mitt & Obama Tied at 49, but only manages this feat with a +d11 sample

Never let a good crisis go to waste

Rahm Emmanuel

There is nothing more dangerous than an excuse

DaTechGuy

Back in 2010 when the MSM needed something ANYTHING to pretend the Tea Party Rallies were nothing special they grasped onto the Coffee Party (you might remember them) the other 98 percent (I doubt you remember them) Al Sharpton DC march (you remember him if you watch MSNBC) and finally Jon Stewart’s Rally to Restore Sanity (you’re lucky if you don’t remember it)

In addition to abject failure all of these marches, movement etc had one thing in common: Every single one of them was held up by the MSM as the counter to the Tea Party that was going to energize voters to vote for the left. It wasn’t until after the very last one, Jon Stewart’s horrible rally failed did the media the next Monday decide to report: “You know, the Democrats might just be in trouble this cycle.”

Last weekend we saw signs that Media Credibility day was coming early, There were no new rallies by the left,  unlike the Tea Party the final media creation, Occupy (or better put destroy) everywhere failed to inspire the people (in fact they turned them off). More details of Benghazi were coming out, none of them good for the president and it looked like the only thing left to do was batten down the hatches for a long week.

Then came Hurricane Sandy.

Suddenly we had an honest to goodness situation where the president had a chance to do something right on a grand scale and the media went into full idolatry mode

Suddenly Barack Obama who even the left had been calling “aloof” is “decisive”

Suddenly Government regulations that the president had basted of were things the President was relaxing.

Suddenly Chris Christie who was not newsworthy when he was giving some of the best speeches urging voters to reject Obama, was newsworthy when he was praising the president for helping out (strangely enough NYC wasn’t highlighted but there is not a Romney proxy to co-opt there)

And even better for the media, Sandy is a legitimate story worthy of coverage, so if the MSM decided to ignore Benghazi, or Bob Menendez (D-NJ) visits with Dominican Hookers, or play down Romney making appearance in PA & Minn, hey Sandy is a full-fledged disaster and it has to come first.

Most important of all it means rather than sitting talking about an impending Obama defeat to the MSM Sandy means hope.

Sandy is going to be a story long past election day, and every day the MSM keeps it front and center is to them a chance, just a chance that the president can use it to swing this election around, and because it is not going to be done by Tuesday, it means these hopes won’t be dashed until the actual votes are counted on election evening.

Never mind the majority of the damage is in states the president should carry easily

Never mind the vast majority of the country as a whole and the swing states in particular remain untouched.

Never mind that the president: “No person left behind” remark positively incensed conservatives after Benghazi, who were already so motivated you had folks knocking on doors during the storm.

So for the left this means Media Credibility day can be postponed indefinitely and when Barack Obama loses on Tuesday, and there is no political advantage to pushing it Suddenly the question will become: What is president-elect Romney doing to get this disaster taken care of? Why isn’t his transition team making contingencies? The critiques can begin on day one.

The most dangerous thing you can give someone is an excuse, and Hurricane Sandy is an excuse for the media to ignore the reality of this election till the very end, and maybe even beyond.

I haven’t dived deeply into polls much lately because frankly there has been no point, Mitt Romney has this race and baring the “Live Boy Dead girl” scenario it’s not changing. (actually considering Romany’s rep it wouldn’t take a dead girl, a live girl would shatter his clean image completely)

But with one week to go the last gasp effort to rally the MSNBC troops took place today on Morning Joe as they touted the Quinnipiac/CBS?NYT polls Saying Obama is up 5 in Ohio with a week to go.

What really got me was their claim that the Quinnipiac poll was the “most accurate” and again playing the “poll denier” card. I’ve personally found their numbers the least believable and while they were talking about the fights in other states as an alternative to Ohio for Romney I looked up the internals of this Ohio/VA/Florida poll and found this:

After talking about how reliable Quinnipiac is, for 15 minutes and while I was tweeting out the D+8 samples in all of these states D+7 in Florida, they suddenly pivoted as Mark Halperin brought up the D+8 sample and people asked how can this be the case if Mitt is up by huge margins among independents in this poll?

At this time they made the case that the split in the sample defines the electorate while I argue that the accurate of the poll is based on how the splits match the electorate.

Now Polls have limitation based on the response rate and the various methods of getting people to answer but the actual registration and demographics of a state are a reality, they may change over time but they are what they are no matter what but of a sample is used.

In the 7 AM Hour more of the same and in the 8 AM hour they repeated this nonsense. This isn’t a poll, this is a last gasp before Media Credibility day arrives and it becomes impossible to deny what already exists.

That the Morning Joe team is spending a show trying to sell the accuracy of a D+8 poll in Ohio & VA & +7 in Fla to their far left base speaks volumes, here is what it says to me:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

When you are reduced to Chuck Todd arguing body language in private conversations that’s pretty bad, by contrast you have Romney people canvasing during the damn storm.

Folks, there is going to be a turnout effort in Ohio like you’ve never seen. George Cullen has been canvassing door-to-door for the past five weeks. He usually hits about 50 doors a day, but only got 25 under the storm conditions yesterday. He’s a West Point graduate who served six years in the Army, and he says, “The conservatives are very energized.”

Yeah this is a D+8 state SURE! It will be fun to watch these guys next Wednesday.

Update: Just called Robert Stacy McCain on the ground in Ohio and asked about the “Body Language” stuff from Chuck Todd: “It’s crazy” He spoke to Kevin Madden on Sunday one of the top guys in the Romney Campaign after rally. He seemed calm and laid back. He hasn’t seen any of this scary “Body Language” from the Romney folks.

They are still working hard, they have not slacked off nor would anyone expect them to but if our friends on the left want to tell themselves this, as the folks in the south say “Bless their Hearts”.

Update 2: Ed Morrissey elaborates:

In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election. If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead. However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday. In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.

I guess that explains why we didn’t see Ed on the show today. I suspect that message wouldn’t have been all that welcome.

Update 3: Instalanche and Michael Graham who you might recall was the owner of the site “Anybody But Mitt” says what is coming:

I believe we’re on the verge of a solid Romney win for two reasons. One is the objective evidence. The other is the ugly desperation of the Obama campaign in its final days.

and he raises a very important point I never thought of:

The president, on the other hand, has peaked at 47 percent. The Battleground Poll model shows Obama losing 52 percent to 47 percent. Rasmussen daily tracking has Obama losing 49 percent to 47 percent. Pew has him tied: 47 percent to 47 percent. But more important, all the polls show Obama sliding or stuck. None show any upward movement.

Obama supporters are quick to tell you “the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.” Two things: a) that’s what candidates who are behind always say; b) this is election day.

Next Wednesday is going to be fun.

Update 4: Stacy who I so rudely woke up in the first update asks an obvious question:

You might think some reporter at the New York Times, which co-sponsored this poll, would think it worth his while to interview the people at Quinnipiac and ask where they’re getting these weird over-samples of Democrats. What is causing this? How is it that Republicans report greater voting enthusiasm by such large margins, and yet are underrepresented in the poll’s sample? It makes no sense.

I’d love to hear the answer.

BTW PPP poll now being touted, Iowa Sample is D+5 Wisconsin D+4

There are two polls I checked out before leaving the hotel today, both had bad news for the GOP but beyond that there is nothing else in common.

One is the WBUR poll on the Brown Warren Race. The WBUR poll shows a big swing toward Warren, now up by 5.

I’ve looked at the internals of the WBUR poll and as always they are spot on.

Although I want Scott Brown to win, this poll pleases me, Brown has made some big mistakes in the air war (more on that tomorrow) and hopefully this poll will cause him to pivot to a better strategy, the one that gave him the lead in the first place.

You can’t correct a problem unless you know it’s there, this poll informs the Brown campaign of a problem and thus is useful

I like that!

While I like the WBUR poll I absolutely LOVE the Time Magazine poll in Ohio showing Obama up 5.

You might ask: “DaTechGuy have you gone roadtrip crazy? Why would you love a poll showing Romney losing Ohio?”

Simple I looked at the internals of this poll. Unlike most polls the partisan splits are not as obvious, you have to do some math but it’s really quite simple.

They polled 783 people in the unweighed sample 290 Democrats, 220 Republicans and 224 independent. That comes out to a sample that is Dem 37.0% GOP 28.0 and 28.6 Ind That’s D+9

With 742 total respondents you have 273 Dems, 206 GOP and 215 independents that’s a split of 36.7% dems, 27.7% GOP and 28.9 Ind. Again a D+9 split

As Ohio is a +1 GOP state on registration this indicates the MSM has gone back to the “spin the polls” business to keep their people on the registration.

I’m delighted by this, it means the Obama campaign and the MSM has decided there is no way to reverse these numbers short of simple propaganda, this means they will not change their strategy and this race is finished.

Either that or the left is in denial, that’s exactly where I want them to be.

Closing note. In the studio on Morning Joe, Joe & Mika and the Panel are all hanging their hats on the Time Magazine poll, but Chuck Todd in Ohio hedged. Joe & Mika are opinion folk, they can afford to take a side, but Chuck Todd is the chief WH guy, he can’t look a fool

Mitt Romney is going to win this election and it’s not going to be close.

“You mean to tell me—HA HA HA—that there are actually people—HOHOHOHO—who—GASP GASP— FALL for that STUPID disguise?”

Ambush Bug to Clark Kent/Superman Action comics 560

After putting out this tweet yesterday

Some members of the left are understandably upset so Jonathan If you don’t believe Obama is up in the polls you’re a “poll denier” Chait has decided to respond:

Oops sorry that sure sounded like him, here is what he actually said:

This is a bluff. Romney is carefully attempting to project an atmosphere of momentum, in the hopes of winning positive media coverage and, thus, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

For those of you still able to read this because you weren’t drinking in front of your PC’s or laptops let me explain the the error of he that NY Mag sees fit to pay for this nonsense

Mr Chait has fallen victim to his own propaganda, like General Beauregard who was shocked to discover that the elaborate designs to invade the North early in the war propagated by Albert Sydney Johnston was an elaborate bluff, Mr. Chait has fallen victim to the rest of the media’s similar moves in this election cycle.

Mr. Chait may I be so bold as to note that during the month of September while the media was assuring us Barack Obama was mopping up the floor with Mitt and the only question left was: “Would Mitt abandon Ohio as hopeless?” the people with skin in the game were busy giving the GOP an 80+ Million cash advantage?

May I remind Mr. Chait that almost no candidate in a close race has been willing to appear with Barack Obama and if he was on any fewer web sites of candidates seeking office they would have milk cartons all over swing states.

And may I finally remind Mr. Chait that the MSM would not decide to give favorable coverage to Mitt if Christ himself came down from heaven with JFK & FDR to endorse him for the presidency the media would hit Mitt for crossing the line between the religious and the political

Mr Chait, I hate to disappoint you but not only IS Romney winning, but he has been winning for a lot longer than the media has been willing to admit. If Obama was any more toast he would be served with your breakfast with a pad of butter and a side of Jam at your favorite local diner.

But by all means believe what you want to believe and when Mitt Wins (and wins big) you can push the stolen election meme that the UN observers are undoubtedly preparing to write.

Much simpler than sell examination.

Editors note: It goes without saying that this entire piece assumes Mr. Chait believes this nonsense and is not trying hie best to stem the tide of a depression so deep among Democrats that they fear losing the coveted Honey Boo Boo endorsement.

I’ve already talked about the nonsense concerning equal pay laws pointing to the 1970’s Batman PSA to remind us all that equal pay for Equal work has been the law of the land for almost two generations.

But let’s pretend for the sake of argument that Yes there has been a grand conspiracy afoot and women do indeed make only 72% of men for the same work.

If we stipulate this as a fact lets note three important points.

1. The Economy is as bad as it ever has been in my lifetime, I don’t think it’s as bad as the great depression but I believe it is worse than the late 70’s which was the worst I remembered before now. (In fairness I didn’t have the responsibilities then that I have now)

2. In a tough economy business’ trying to survive find themselves forced to work on smaller and smaller profit margins.

3. Talk to any business owner and they will tell you the single biggest expense they deal with is labor, in fact the incredible costs of labor is the reason why so few people are being hired.

So for the last four years we’ve been in mired in a horrible economy with businesses forced to cut margins any way they can simply to survive.

Yet women have borne the brunt of the job loss in this economy

Here is the question: If you are a business owner in the worst economy in decades who is cutting your bottom line to the bone in order to try to preserve some kind of margin, wouldn’t you be the women who are being paid less and laying off the men who are making more? In fact aren’t you replacing the higher paid men with these women that you can supposedly get for 72 cents on the dollar?

But DaTechGuy, you KNOW these evil discriminatory business would not let money get in the way of their prejudices.

If that was the case then prejudice against Mexicans would have kept jobs from moving south of the border and bigotry against Chinese would have kept jobs from Asia.

You can’t have it both ways, either these guys are greedy businessmen who would throw grandma off the cliff to make an extra buck or they are bigots of such incredible proportion that they are willing, in an age when interest rates for investments are at best 1 or 2% a full 28 cents on the dollar just to satisfy their own hatred of women.

The Doctor: What are you a journalist?

Penny: Yes!

The Doctor: Then make it up.

Doctor Who Partners in Crime 2008

Robert Stacy McCain and the Sept Finance Report drives the final stake through the Democrats Heart:

The Democrats ended September with cash on hand of $4.6 million, compared to the Republican National Committee’s $82.6 million.

That’s nearly an 18-to-1 cash advantage for Republicans.

And if you think that’s bad this is worse:

the DNC, they had to take out loans to pay the bills so that they owed $20.5 million at the end of September, meaning that that (subtracting cash on hand from total debt) they were $15.9 million in the red — essentially bankrupt. Wasserman-Schultz’s committee only raised $3.7 million in September; at that pace, it would take them more than four months to clear their debt, even if they didn’t spend another dime in the meantime.

What is the most significant word in this story? SEPTEMBER.

You see the first debate wasn’t until Oct 3rd. September was the DNC in Charlotte. It took place the first week of the month. A convention that our media friends told us was such a success for the Obama Campaign, A Convention the media told us put Romney in a big hole, a convention that meant Romney would need a miracle of a debate performance to recover from.

Yet in the land of Realville in that awesome month for the left when the month when Republicans were going down for the third time the people who actually write the checks were so impressed by the party they left them in a state where they had about 6% of the cash the GOP did.

You can believe one of two things, either the money men all employed psychics who were under the influence of Pyroviles:

Sept 1st 2012 Big Money INC HQ

or the media was shoveling in the hopes of bucking up the left and scaring the right.

Believe what you want, here is what I believe:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

It’s easy to ride right through them when they can’t afford Horses!

Looking at the media reaction to the debate particularly from our friends in MSNBC perfectly illustrates the difference between Strategy and Tactics that I discussed in one of my premium commentaries.

The left seems unanimous that Obama won this debate decisively, they point to the “women” questions. They point to Candy Crowley’s “tackle” of Mitt Romney. They point to polls at both CBS that had Obama winning by 8 and CNN that had Obama up by 7.

Unfortunately Barack Obama and the left are looking tactically and not strategically, they are subjecting Barack Obama to as George Bush called it: The Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations.

Two weeks ago Barack Obama turned in comparatively one of the worst debate performances since Admiral Stockdale. The media and the left has been in panic ever since. They weren’t worried about Obama losing the debate, they were worried about Obama drooling all over himself, as I tweeted last night:

If you grade Barack Obama on the Denver Scale he got an A+, in reality this debate was about even, I gave Romney a 2 pt win but I have no problem with someone who gives Obama that same margin, but the goal here isn’t to be given the a nod on point, the goal is to win the election.  In the Frank Luntz focus group out in Nevada, a swing state it was DEVASTATING.

Note the only defenders of Obama were all “Romney is after our ladyparts”.

On MSNBC while the entire table was ABSOLUTELY positive Obama won, the verdict of actual voters of the focus group was quite different.

and when Chris Matthews threw a loaded question attempting to push the women in the panel away from Romney, he failed.

I don’t have the CNN panel video but they also split on where they were voting.

That’s the bottom line, it doesn’t matter what people think about winning the debate it’s who they will vote for as John King on CNN said:

“Yankee fans agree the Tigers won last night but they’re not voting for Detroit”

Romney is ahead if Obama doesn’t move those voters he is toast.  I’ll give Chris Barron the last word:

This race is over, start practicing saying: President Romney

Update: I suspect if the president did as well as MSNBC thinks there would not be a legion of idiots publicly vowing to kill Mitt Romney

Funny how the MSM doesn’t find this a story, isn’t it?

Update 2: the Evil Blogger Lady gets it.

Gloria:  “Wow, that’s convoluted logic”

Archie:  “Yes, and that’s the kinda straight thinking I’m trying to put across here.”

All in the family 1972

I woke up late today and have been trying to think of how to properly encapsulate the reaction of the far left to Joe Biden’s performance last night.  In my travels this morning I found exactly what I wanted in a sign in front of a person’s house on Providence Street in Fitchburg

Ignoring for a moment the “How long have they had a chimp problem on Providence Street?” question, nothing better describes the MSNBC/P2 crowd today than this image.

The entire “demoralized as hell” meme is all about how our friends on the left have been selling the American people an alternative version of reality not in sync with actual events and yesterday’s debate provided the best example of this.

Democrats running for office have been running away from Barack Obama for a year.  After the president’s debate performance the American People started joining them.  To the left who had embraced the Sam Tanenhaus “death of conservatism” meme, who discounted the midterm election and who considered the victory of people like Ted Cruz and Mia Love in GOP primaries as a bug rather than a feature of the conservative movement,  panic and depression set in.  They needed something, ANYTHING to convince them all is not lost.

Then came Joe Biden and yesterday’s debate.

Biden was rude, Biden made weird faces, Biden totally misrepresented Libya, but he also was combative, challenged Paul Ryan as needed, hit key Democrat talking points and had a perfectly adequate debate, (in my opinion losing on points) not particularly memorable but not one that was going to cost the left any votes it already had.

But to the MSM, to MSNBC, to Chris Matthews, Ed Schultz and to every leftist who were preparing to move to Massachusetts after election day in the hope that Question #2 will pass and they can end it all Joe Biden was a savior.

HE stopped the bleeding.  He fought back.  He showed the Democrat party was better than the GOP.  He was a man schooling a boy.  He re-energized the base!

Never mind that the election is 27 days away and they’re losing.

Never mind the need to expand the base.

Never mind that Paul Ryan at that same table succeeded at the only job he had in this debate, demonstrating that he was perfectly capable of stepping into the #1 spot if something, God forbid should happen to Mitt Romney in the next four years.

No, says the left, we aren’t hearing any of this, we don’t see it!  All we saw was a mighty warrior who vanquished the evil youth who is going to kill our seniors and sell our poor for sausages.  You can say all you want that this debate didn’t move voters away from Mitt but we’re not listening to you!

The activist MSNBC  left can put its fingers in its ears all it wants, it can pretend this debate is a game changer rather than, at best, a draw, but the few democrats involved in the campaign still living in realville understand that all Joe Biden performance accomplished was bandaging an open wound. It might stop the bleeding but it’s not going to get the patient in any condition to win a race.

And 27 days is not a lot of time left for them so that means one thing for us on the right:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

If our friends on the left believed in novenas I’d suggest three of them to St. Jude, but he might start asking uncomfortable questions about the unborn…

Update: Speaking of delusional chimps….

Remember a professional press outfit actually paid this guy for years.

…with this statement concerning their just released polls:

In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats — 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats. . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

Amazing how the samples matter once Romney’s numbers improved in Ohio, I wonder where they buy their Cheetos?

Meanwhile in VA the previous D+4 sample becomes an R+1 samples and guess what? Romney now has a +1 pt lead! Change the sample and you change the results. How about that!

“But DaTechGuy” you say, “That party identification is psychological, people call themselves more Republican because the GOP is doing better and Romney is doing better.”

Well if that’s the case then we should see change in Florida. While there seems to be universal agreement that the Debate Moved numbers for Romney Florida remains unchanged, how can that be when other Florida Polls have moved…

…what a coincidence, the D vs R sample hasn’t moved and PRESTO the Obama Romney gap doesn’t move, even when the entire universe concludes Obama is in free fall.

Funny how that works isn’t it?

Mind you Florida & VA are the same states the Suffolk decided not to poll anymore because Romney had it cold.

Why do I have a sneaking suspicion that after the next debate (or perhaps after tonight’s VP debate) the party samples will move and the numbers will improve for the Obama campaign?

If people don’t realize they are being played it’s only because they don’t want to know it.

Update: take a look at the party splits vs the poll results from CBS


It’s worth noting that there is no measure of if people “lean” amazing how the results seem to match the samples within a point or two.