…To turn a cold war victory that it took half a dozen presidents from Harry Truman to George Bush 41 to win into defeat.

The question isn’t if Putin is going to keep the Crimea that’s already been established, the question is: Will there be an independent country called “Ukraine” anymore or if it does exist how much land it will consist of?

The United States will have absolutely no say in the matter, the EU will have no say in the matter, only Russia & Putin will make that decision with only perhaps China as a limiting factor.

But that’s not a sign this president has reopened the Cold war and lost. This is:

Russia says it is negotiating with eight governments around the world for access to military facilities, to enable it to extend its long-range naval and strategic bomber capabilities.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Wednesday the military was engaged in talks with Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Algeria, Cyprus, the Seychelles, Vietnam and Singapore.

Meanwhile back in the us what is the leader of the free world doing:

A White House official emailed some reporters to say that President Obama’s team met today to discuss the ongoing situation on Ukraine. It appears President Obama did not attend.


Perhaps instead the National Security Team should have invited Sarah Palin, she apparently has a better grasp on the situation than Barack Obama.

The only thing more pathetic than the president’s response is this from the media such as this headline at Politico:

Putin’s Reckless Ukraine Gambit

“Reckless”? Reckless implies he is taking a risk, Vladimir Putin has dealt with Barack Obama and this administration he knows that opposing the man who removed the bust of Winston Churchill did not involve risk.

There is only one question left to ask in my mind: Is the defeat of the United States, the emasculation of it’s international prestige, the abandonment of our allies and the gutting of our military a bug or a feature to President Barack Obama?

If five years ago someone asked me that question I would have called them crazy,

That I am asking this question and honestly don’t know the answer, saddens me beyond belief.

Generations still unborn in countries around the world will pay for our decision to elect the first affirmative action president.


Olimometer 2.52

Its the first day of March and we’re coming off our biggest shortfall ever for our monthly goal just under $500 shy of the mortgage.

However there is also a weekly paycheck goal which took a back seat due to the mortgage shortfall, we’re only $115 shy there and with the rest of the day to do it, that’s entirely doable.

5 $25 tip jar hits will give us that consolation prize and get us started toward making the March goal.

We’ve never failed to meet payroll & Mortgage two months in a row (in fact we’ve only missed them by any significant amount twice in 13 months). Let’s get March off to a good start to so that doesn’t happen now.

He gives me the ball, I take one step and there’s a hole, and I’d never seen a hole, playing for Temple,  and I said, “God, a hole!”

Bill Cosby Why is their Air?  Hofstra 1965

It’s a critical week for the Ukrainians looking to get a semblance of a free society back.

I was concerned when the protesters moved in on the riot police after they started to retreat at once point during the Wednesday truce. I figured the authoritarian Pro-Russian (Pro-Soviet) government would use it as an excuse to send in the troops rather than police to finish them off.

That the government is now doing this instead…:

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych on Friday announced early presidential elections and promised to form a coalition government in a bid to defuse a deep crisis in which scores have been killed and hundreds injured.

There was no immediate comment from opposition leaders, who were meeting among themselves.

In a statement on his website, Yanukovych said he would start the process for early elections but gave no date. He also promised constitutional reforms trimming presidential powers, a key demand of protesters.

He made the announcement after all-night talks with the opposition and three European Union ministers.

…suggests the Putin backed Yanukovych can’t trust his troops to fire on the protectors.

this means there is a tiny hole for the pro-democracy forces to run through.

The only reason why the hole exists is perfect timing for the protesters. If this was either a year ago or a year from now Yankovych would have already “invited” Russian troops to come in and help bring order and that would have led to a situation where either the Ukranian army would have to

1. Fight the Russians (and their own fellows) sparking a full scale regional war/civil war.

2. Let the Russians come in and crush the people circa 1956 Hungary.

However with the Olympics going on in Sochi the Russians in a box for a short period of time because:

1.  With the world’s spotlight on Russia Putin doesn’t want to make a public move to help crush these people.

2.  Given the security threats & needs of the Olympics Putin can’t risk any chance that the deploying of forces in Ukraine leaves a hole for Islamists to get through and launch a successful attack either in Sochi or elsewhere in Russia.

Once the Olympics are done the international officials and the security needs relaxed Putin will be in a position to go into Ukraine in force.

I figure the protesters have pretty much till the end of February to win outright or get a supervised deal in place .  If by March 5th they have not the Russians will be free to play their cards and it will be all over.

What would I do?  That’s a post for another day.

Update: Captain Ed reports a deal:

Yanukovich is seeing his political support crumble underneath him. Englund further notes for the Post that a new envoy from Moscow may have made the difference between defiance and deference to popular will:

A key player in the talks could turn out to be Vladimir Lukin, dispatched from Moscow Thursday by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Until now, Russia’s lobbying of Ukraine has been so aggressive that Europeans have characterized it as bullying. But Lukin is a respected low-key figure, and his appointment seemed to signal a change in the Kremlin’s tone.

Putin has tried to bind Ukraine and Yanukovych to Russia with economic ties and stymie closer relations between Kiev and the European Union. But Russian analysts said Thursday that the Ukrainian president has shown he cannot defeat the opposition and that the past two days of street fighting, coupled with defiance throughout western Ukraine, have exposed his weakness. If that thinking now extends to the Kremlin, Putin might try to cut the best deal he can.

Any new government in Ukraine will still have to maintain a working relationship with Moscow. The cultural, political, and economic ties are too strong for a complete break, and no democratic government in Kiev could sustain that kind of rupture for long. Putin may have had his knuckles rapped by Ukrainians in this case, but he can still cut deals — as long as he doesn’t give the appearance of propping up a dictator, especially if that means sending troops and tanks over the border as Putin did in Georgia in 2008. The arrival of Lukin may have included a message that no such help would be forthcoming, and that Yanukovich needed to cut a deal soon.

The protesters needs to secure a deal NOW.


Olimometer 2.52

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Michael Corleone: Your enemies always get strong on what you leave behind.

Godfather III 1990

Jon Sable: I’ve never liked Terrorists, not even the pretty ones

Jon Sable Freelance 1985

Pat Buchanan has Jonah Goldberg shaking his head:


The source of his ire is this Piece at Townhall has, to say the least raised a few eyebrows:

Is Vladimir Putin a paleoconservative?

In the culture war for mankind’s future, is he one of us?

His argument is based on a Putin speech that a lot of people in the cultural right like myself would agree with

With America clearly in mind, Putin declared, “In many countries today, moral and ethical norms are being reconsidered.”

“They’re now requiring not only the proper acknowledgment of freedom of conscience, political views and private life, but also the mandatory acknowledgment of the equality of good and evil.”

Pat doesn’t stop there

President Reagan once called the old Soviet Empire “the focus of evil in the modern world.” President Putin is implying that Barack Obama’s America may deserve the title in the 21st century.


Moreover, Putin asserts, the new immorality has been imposed undemocratically.The “destruction of traditional values” in these countries, he said, comes “from the top” and is “inherently undemocratic because it is based on abstract ideas and runs counter to the will of the majority of people.”

Does he not have a point?

You would think an old cold warrior like Pat would see exactly what Putin is doing particularly since we’ve just had a big reminder of what his game actually is but first let me say this:

You won’t find a stronger cultural warrior than me. I’ve described “Gay Marriage” as simple Narcissism and I find that the direction that the baby boomer generation and their appetites have produced untenable and I think people who want to take the government “out of the marriage” business forget that the easiest way out of poverty is to be a child raised by a father and mother who finishes school and refrains from having children while a child.

However that doesn’t change the fact that the answer to Pat’s question on Putin isn’t just “No”, it’s “HELL NO!

Putin is playing the same game the communist bloc did with Nelson Mandela in South Africa  and with segregation in the South before it.  In both cases the west found itself either directly (Jim Crow) or indirectly (Apartheid) on the wrong side of a Moral issue that the vast majority of the world recognizes and the Soviets and their allies looking for an easy dose of Moral authority jumped on board and brought their allies with them.

The fact that in the USSR the black population was practically non-existent and that places like Cuba oppressed people of color was not relevant and got little or no play. As soon as the left condemned the gulag, the lack of political rights, imprisonments or even mass slaughter the Soviets could play the “Jim Crow” and then later the Apartheid card to create a false equivalency between the free world and the heel of the Communist Boot.

That Mandela went with it wasn’t a surprise as he needed any ally he could get, but that American leftists supposedly concerned with human rights bought this bill of goods was more about their own America opposing myopia than anything else.

Putin cut his eye teeth in the KGB you can bet your bottom dollar that he knows what he’s doing.  That vast majority of the world is on a different page than the west on Gay Marriage, and cultural issues but Putin’s words are strictly utilitarian as Stacy McCain put it earlier this week when writing about Russia’s slow regression back to Totalitarianism:

Anti-American propaganda may actually be based on factual reporting. There are things our government does, especially in the area of foreign policy and national security, which we don’t necessarily endorse. However, these actions must be understood in an international context. What are our nation’s enemies and rivals doing? Our nation’s policies cannot be viewed in a vacuum, and especially we cannot permit propaganda by hostile powers to suggest that the United States is uniquely evil, so as to undermine our prestige, demoralize our citizens and weaken our defenses against aggressors.

Stacy was born in 59, I in 63 so we’re old enough to recognize the cold war game Putin is playing.

Pat was born in 1938. It amazes me that he doesn’t recognize this game when it’s being played on him.

The power of the Soviets was built on many useful idiots in the west, it’s a shame to see Pat be numbered among them.

Cui Bono?

Lucius Cassius Longinus Ravilla 2nd Century BC

David: Why is that wrong?

Darryl: Look, I have the gift. I didn’t ask for it, but I do. I can sense these things, spirits, whatever you wanna call ’em. Why they’re hangin’ here in the first place? That’s their unfinished business.

David: Do I have the gift?

Darryl: Dude, please. You definitely don’t have it. You’re a civilian.

David: But if I don’t have it, how is it that I can see her and talk to her when no one else can?

Darryl: Exactly.

David: Exactly what?

Darryl: That’s the right question.

Just Like Heaven 2005

One of the things that has characterized modern thought process is the sheer arrogance of it.  They search for deep thoughts such as in the incredible Boston Globe piece asking if someone we were responsible for the Boston Marathon Bombing because we failed the bombers family while ducking the question that provides the obvious answer as it does not fit into their worldview.

I hold it axiomatic that man has not changed much in his whole existence that the same things that drive people, pride, greed, lust, diversion, power, fear are the same things that drive us all today, the only difference being our technological ability to provide these things.

However modern liberals hatred of Western civilization means the basic question the obvious ones as pronounced by Lucius Cassius Longinus Ravilla are meaningless.  They represent just another pronouncement from an old dead white European who didn’t even know how to text or twerk.  How can we possibly learn anything from the likes of him?

That arrogance and worldview is the reason why the import of this pronouncement of Robert Stacy McCain is totally lost on them:

where are Russia’s Assanges, Mannings and Snowdens? Where are the hackers and “whistleblowers” exposing the secrets of America’s enemies?

To a person who has been schooled in the history of Western Civilization and it’s wisdom, those words, like the question of Lucius Cassius Longinus Ravilla give the obvious explanation to the motives of the Edward Snowden, Julian Assanges and Bradley Manning and the leftists who are so enamored with them.  You’ll find they are the same people who in the 80’s were also enamored in every movement the contested Reagan in his battle with the Soviets and the same that ushered in the fall of the house of Tsarnaev

Perhaps even those libertarians who have been schooled in the Constitution and the classics and are naturally suspicious of big government that question is like a light that dawns showing that whatever they may think of the programs that these men exposed, their purpose has less to do with civil liberties than they pretend.

It’s by asking those wise questions, time-tested through history that the whole of Human wisdom is advanced.  They serve reality as it is rather than as others would have it be.

Bryan: That is what happens when you sit behind a desk. You forget things, like the weight in the hand of a gun that’s loaded and one that’s not.

Taken 2008

One of the problem when you have dealt with only a free society in your life you forget how the real world works. However one thing about reality is it tends to provide one with an education…quickly

“They asked us a lot of questions about why we were here? What’s our reasons? What are our intentions? They were communicating back and forth to their captain and they told us that their captain demanded that we leave the Northern Sea Route area immediately and that if we didn’t, he would use ’strict measures.’

“We asked, ’What do you mean by strict measures?’ They confirmed that what they meant by strict measures was fire.

“Preventive fire, at first.”

Ferguson, who was in the meeting between her ship’s captain and the four officers, said the discussions were calm and reasonable. But the manner of the coast guard officers as they continued to receive instructions from their superiors convinced the Sunrise’s captain that the threat was real.

“It was a tone and feeling thing, but at a certain point it seemed to both of us that this was a real possibility. It wasn’t just a bluff.

Color Powerline & Tony Aardvark less than surprised:

A major miscalculation by Greenpeace, the old USSR might be gone, but the new Russia led by Comrade Putin is little changed from the USSR, now instead of the KGB, there are the incredibly rich oligarchs and Gazprom pulling the strings behind the scenes, with same the ruthlessness that the KGB once did. Democracy and free democratic protest is an anathema to Russians used to centuries of despotic rule by the Czars and 70 years of communist tyranny, and the sort of praise that Greenpeace gets in the west from fawning Liberal politicians is never going to happen in Russia.

When you spend your life in a free society without threat, when your version of history is a politically correct one with the US as your villain you forget the dangers of powerful countries that find you as an obstacle. With the US in retreat Russia’s is not shy about removing such obstacles as a 2nd group of Greenpeace protesters are discovering:

The Investigative Committee, the federal law-enforcement body conducting the probe, vowed Tuesday to bring to justice all those involved in the Sept. 18 incident “regardless of their citizenship.” The crew of 30 onboard the Greenpeace vessel Arctic Sunrise includes one American, four Russians and six Britons.

Under Russian law, piracy carries a penalty of up to 15 years in prison. The activists haven’t been charged.

The announcement of the criminal case came as authorities towed the Dutch-flagged ship from the Prirazlomnaya drilling platform to the port city of Murmansk. The crew, which had been held on board by Russian officers since the confrontation, was then taken ashore late Tuesday for questioning.

Of course there was a time when the leader of the free world might have been able to do something  I don’t doubt a Reagan or a Truman would have reacted swiftly,  but Obama’s America?

This reminded me of a talk a few weeks ago, with another veteran diplomat who often confers with leaders with whom Mr. Obama meets. I had asked: When Obama enters a room with other leaders, is there a sense that America has entered the room? I mentioned De Gaulle—when he was there, France was there. When Reagan came into a room, people stood: America just walked in. Does Mr. Obama bring that kind of mystique?

“No,” he said. “It’s not like that.”

Some of our friends on the left  are getting a real lesson, what it’s like when their dream of restrained America the left always dreamed of means and they don’t like it:

The biggest risk is not political but social. Wealthy societies with people who think wealth is a given, a birthright—they do not understand that we are in the fight of our lives with countries and nations set on displacing us. Wealth is earned. It is far from being a given. It cannot be taken for granted. The recession reminded us how quickly circumstances can change.”

I feel bad for these fools as I did for the Soviet dissidents in the 60 70’s and 80’s but my regret is slightly tempered by knowing they worked very hard to achieve the results that now put them on trial before an empowered and aggressive Russia.

This is the world you wanted leftists,I hope enjoy it.  I know Russia is.


Olimometer 2.52

My “wealth” is earned by tip jar hitters coming up with #305 a week.  I’m still  $56 short.  If you can to change that please consider hitting DaTipJar below.



On of the lines from yesterday’s debate was the president pooh poohing Russia as a threat:

OBAMA: Governor Romney, I’m glad that you recognize that Al Qaida is a threat, because a few months ago when you were asked what’s the biggest geopolitical threat facing America, you said Russia, not Al Qaida; you said Russia, in the 1980s, they’re now calling to ask for their foreign policy back because, you know, the Cold War’s been over for 20 years.

Yeah all those days of sending those who disagree to the Gulag are long gone…oh wait

While President Barack Obama voiced his support for friendlier ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the presidential debate, the human rights dignity of the all-female punk band, Pussy Riot, appeared to have been terribly violated since they had been imprisoned to serve in Siberian (prison camp) gulags.

According to Russia Today, “two members of the convicted Pussy Riot punk band will serve their prison terms in remote prisons, despite their pleas to stay in the capital. The exact correctional facilities will be revealed as soon as prisoners arrive to their final destinations.”

Ah it brings me back to the halcyon days of youth, but today so many of the young have no idea exactly what communism is and was.

Putin is KGB and KGB under any other name is just the same.

Update: This is via live at five.

I tend to watch a lot of classic TV so when I saw this story:

China and Russia reaffirm support for Syria

China on Wednesday restated its opposition to military intervention in Syria, as Russia sought to halt fresh UN Security Council action after a massacre of civilians sparked global fury.

I thought for a second I might be watching MeTV

On a serious note to a person of my age or older this headline should not be any kind of surprise. With the Rise of Putin the old KGB man has gone fully back to its old Soviet days when it comes to foreign policy and China since it’s fall to communism has always done it’s best to protect the rights of dictators to slaughter their own people, as it’s a tactic they use themselves.

But to the young folks who have been taught that the Cold War was a fight between two equally questionable philosophies, to youth who have been taught that the US is an imperial power, to the occupods who believe that America represents the height of oppression and to the folks like Chris Hayes who don’t see our troops who stood against our cold war enemies as heroes it doesn’t compute.

There is and has been a simple reality that the US has been on the side of the angels for over 100 years and the rare times when we have looked the other way involved either fights against a greater evil (the Nazis, the Cold war) or exceptions, while for our communist friends in China since the 48 and the Soviets and the Putin era Russians, supported consistently by the left, have not. No amount of “cool” people wearing Che T-Shirts will change this.

One can debate if the US should or should not intervene in Syria, that’s legit, but the reality that Russia and China will always do their best to protect any nation that chooses to slaughter their own people can’t be debated. It is a simple fact.

The Wiki Leaks news continues to grow:

First some very ugly news from the Guardian:

A scandal involving foreign contractors employed to train Afghan policemen who took drugs and paid for young “dancing boys” to entertain them in northern Afghanistan caused such panic that the interior minister begged the US embassy to try and “quash” the story, according to one of the US embassy cables released by WikiLeaks.

The Lonely Conservative is rightly discussed as is Stacy.

Meanwhile Atlas points out some wikileaks stuff that continues to be ignored:

According to the latest WikiLeaks document “dump,” Saddam’s toxic arsenal, significantly reduced after the Gulf War, remained intact. Jihadists, insurgents and foreign (possibly Iranian) agitators turned to these stockpiles during the Iraq conflict and may have brewed up their own deadly agents, according to the WikiLeaks web site.

During that time, former Iraqi General Georges Sada, Saddam’s top commander, detailed the transfers of Iraq’s WMD. “There [were] weapons of mass destruction gone out from Iraq to Syria, and they must be found and returned to safe hands,” Mr. Sada said. “I am confident they were taken over.”

Color me unsurprised, but the rest of the media will totally ignore this.

Meanwhile Hackers attempt to wreak vengeance on Sarah Palin for daring to oppose the leaks:

The website and personal credit card information of former Gov. Sarah Palin were cyber-attacked today by Wikileaks supporters, the 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate tells ABC News in an email.

Hackers in London apparently affiliated with “Operation Payback” – a group of supporters of Julian Assange and Wikileaks – have tried to shut down SarahPac and have disrupted Sarah and Todd Palin’s personal credit card accounts.

“No wonder others are keeping silent about Assange’s antics,” Palin emailed. “This is what happens when you exercise the First Amendment and speak against his sick, un-American espionage efforts.”

This will guarantee them sympathy on MSNBC and with most of the MSM. Cubachi thinks it is foolish of them:

How stupid can these people be? They just proved that they’re not all about free speech. They are all about quelling and silencing opposition with fear, and destroying America’s infrastructure. A bunch of dangerous dolts.

For those of you who don’t think WikiLeaks is a terrorist organization, what does this say where they engage in cyber warfare against our country and innocent people?

I don’t think it’s stupidity, I think they recognize the left sympathy with wikileaks has nothing to do with speech and everything about hitting the US.

As for the Terrorist part, well lets ask an actual terrorist:

‘I Never Denounced’ W.U. Violence: Ayers Compares Weather Underground to WikiLeaks

Remember terrorists aren’t terrorist if they support the left.

Meanwhile Twitter has acted:

The group responsible for “hacking” several companies which have cut ties with and services to Wikileaks as well as Sarah Palin moments ago had their twitter account suspended.

Expect the get a life crowd to go after Twitter next, as they did against Mastercard as reported here:

In what they called “Operation Payback”, the network of online activists targeted firms including Mastercard and Visa, in the latest front of the battle over leaked US diplomatic cables.

The group, known as Anonymous and thought to be 1,500 to 2,000-strong, flooded the websites of the credit card companies, and that of the Swedish prosecution authority, with millions of bogus visits.

Their attack came after the financial giants, along with the online payment firm PayPal, announced they would no longer process donations to the anti-secrecy group.

Allahpundit says not so fast on the blame game:

I’m not sure how Tapper’s so sure who the culprit is. Wikileaks itself has been DDOS’d a bunch of times, presumably by freelance “hackers,” since the latest document drop. Maybe the London group did hit Palin and Mastercard, or maybe it’s copycats who also support Wikileaks, or maybe it’s freelancers looking to get in on the action for whatever reason. The ‘Net’s becoming a freefire DDOS zone, which makes it hard to keep track of who’s firing each of the bullets.

My Money’s on the Flemish Menace

Meanwhile there are those who are celebrating the wikileaks crowd such as the Russians:

According to Russia’s English-language television news Russia Today, the Kremlin thinks that Julian Assange is too important for a Time Magazine Person of the Year and needs more substantial recognition for his work — like, say, sharing the stage with Barack Obama with a Nobel Peace Prize. The Week has the lengthy video that is unintentionally hilarious as it explores whether the US or Israel’s assassins will get to Assange first.

The story is noteworthy for the number of truthers involved in it, meanwhile on the left coast:

An Army private jailed for allegedly leaking sensitive military data is a hero and should be freed, according to a resolution under consideration by the Berkeley City Council.

The council is expected to vote Tuesday on whether to declare its support for Pfc. Bradley Manning, who’s suspected of providing WikiLeaks with classified military documents and a video depicting an Army helicopter attack in Baghdad in which 11 civilians were killed.

Sister Toldaja asks the question:

Ummmm. Can we question their patriotism yet?

Yet? I never stopped. Remember during the 80 when all those anti-nuke groups hit Reagan and it was revealed that the Soviets funded those guys all those years. I’d be shocked if they didn’t have such a connection now.

I’ll give the last word belongs to the daily gut:

Look, I’m tired of people making this a huge “transparency” issue. Thank God Assange wasn’t alive during the French Resistance, or we’d be speaking Australian now.

Bottom line: the left loves Assange because he’s attacking America.

And our lives demand secrecy – whether in times of war, or warts.

That’s pretty much it.

Update: Glenn Reynolds 3:18 A.m.

SHOCKER: Berkeley City Council Plans Vote to Honor Wikileaks Leaker Bradley Manning.

My question: Why is this a Shocker?

…will not be as restrained or as nuanced as the American Response to 9/11.

I don’t expect to see soul searching or worries about the niceties. Putin is KGB and they certainly are not going to worry about keeping the US or international press happy, and the Russian Press certainly isn’t going to call for kid gloves.

And lets not pretend it is not Islamic:

While the Chechnyan conflict started off as a political rebellion, it has been an Islamist affair for most of the last several years. The “Black Widows” took part in the infamously botched seizure of a Moscow theater in 2002, when Russian authorities gassed the hostages and terrorists in an attempt to disable them, but wound up killing many of them instead.

This will not be pretty. Nor should we expect it to be.

One of the more reasonable arguments concerning the White Houses’ missile defense move is the cost savings it entails. It sounds pretty good but it is deceptive.

First of all political capital and possibility monetary capital was spent to get the permission to put the stuff there in the first place. Now that it will not be deployed that is all now a loss.

Second of all it means if either the technology or threat changes then we would have to spend it all again, only this time we would have less credibility and it would have a higher cost in political and financial capital, in fact it might not even be in time. Sort of like the four stage strategy of diplomacy via Sir Humphrey starting around 6 min in this clip or if you just want the meat at 7:40

If your goal is to actually do nothing then it’s a great plan. If your goal is you know actual deterrence it’s not a good idea. It’s like losing money in a machine and then just putting more in again instead of getting your quarters back first.

But Datechguy you say: Aren’t these missiles actually better than the ground stuff and more flexable? It’s the arugment in the LGF thread on the subject that was offered and here is my answer verbatim:

Those things are true in the physical sense but it is a worse deterrent in a political sense. If a country is under actual threat there is little question in the mind of the potential aggressor that it will use a deterrent under it’s own control on it’s own soil.

If the deterrent is not on their own soil then the political will of the guarantor is taken into effect. Europe’s graveyards are full of casualties of the lack of political will.

That’s why US troops South Korea are a more effective deterrent then a promise to deploy troops would be. It’s also why we actually had troops in Europe instead of relying on a nuclear deterrent. Your more likely to stay in the pot if you already have money in it.

That is the reality.