Well there is only an hour before the vote on what’s been dubbed “Obamacare lite” and I’m going to shock a few people here by saying this.

The House should pass this bill.

Why because this is the same situation as Toomey Manchin only in reverse.

Even if we take all the complaints about the bill as given killing it springs four traps on the GOP.

1.  More More More:

In the midnight hour she cried more more more

Billy Idol “Rebel Yell” 1983

The old Ted Kennedy plan which always worked was to take an existing piece of what you wanted and over time get the rest of it done as the opportunity came.  It’s how he got liberalism to win.  The opposition to this bill is the exact opposite, by deciding we couldn’t get all that we wanted we guarantee we’ll get none.  While that might be good for fundraising it’s not good for stopping Obamacare

Or to put it another way, if we thought that way during the election we’d have president Hillary now.

UPDATE:  One more thing I didn’t think of.  Every piece of Obama we kill by law, including the funding of Obamacare by law is a piece that the Democrats can’t get back unless they get it passed again by law.  That’s huge.

2.  Blaidd Drwg squared

9th Doctor:  This station is designed to explode the minute it reaches capacity

Doctor Who:  Boom Town 2005

In all the debate that the MSM is giving to this nobody seems to be asking the question that really matters.

“How would keeping Obamacare intact help the American people or the GOP?”

The MSM ask this question because the left knows the answer is “It Wouldn’t!” By leaving Obamacare as is we end up keeping all its economy killing components in place as opposed to some of them.  Maybe it’s just me but if the best I can do if heading for a cliff is decelerate to 30 mph instead of stopping I’ll do it, because that at least gives me time that I didn’t have before.  That’s one of the reasons why smart people on the right will vote for it.  Oddly that’s also the reason why the left will do all they can from preventing smart people from doing so.  Why, because of #3…

3.  I WAS HOPING YOU’D THINK THAT DUMMY: 

Spock: Mister Oxmyx, I understood we had an arrangement, a truce.

Oxmyx: I was hoping you’d think that, dummy.

Star Trek:  A Piece of the action 1968

We keep hearing from some that unless we get full repeal now it’s a failure this implies that doing nothing will give us a reward from the votes and the  mainstream media for the GOP;s inaction.

That just stupid.

Not only will the GOP get all the blame for not repealing Obama but because they allowed it to stay in place the MSM will now be able to successfully shift the blame for all the bad effect of Obamacare to the GOP, and they’ll be able to do this because my conservative friends saved it.

That’s why Trump is smart enough to shift the blame here, he knows the media, he knows the meme and the costs of this failure and if the house wants to pay those costs he’ll let them

That house conservatives don’t get this is pretty sad.

Finally there is one aspect of this that everyone is missing

4.  This isn’t the beginning of the end it’s the end of the beginning .

4th Doctor:  First things first but not necessarily in that order

Doctor Who  Meglos 1980

In all the chest thumping going on everyone is forgetting that if the house bill passes as is the Senate gets a go at it.  This not only means that senators like Cruz and Paul will get a shot and modifying it but even after passage there will be a conference committee to iron out the details.

All of this will not only provide time to make improvements but will also give time to play the either the parliamentary option (allowing extra stuff as part of a 50 vote option) or even the thermonuclear option (losing the filibuster for everything).  Passing this bill allows us to being this process, Waiting till the fall give the left time to stall to kill it, the same tactics the south used to kill civil rights legislation for decades.

This bill as passed isn’t the final bill and congress should know it, so they should stop pretending it is and get the ball rolling.

Bottom line, rejecting this bill is a trap and It pains me to see so many conservatives ready to jump into it, particularly since the MSM and Democrats are practically advertising that it is.  I’ve hit the GOP establishment for getting spooked by the MSM’s stick.  Will my fellow conservatives who didn’t get spooked by the MSM stick be enticed by their carrot?

I sure hope not

Update 2:  (update 1 is up top)  I know many of my writers here disagree with me on this, that’s fine, I respect their opinion and have no problem giving them a platform to disagree with me on this, but I think they’re wrong and I wanted to get that on the record before things happen, not after.

It’s also possible that if this fails there might be time to get a new version passed, but I suspect the closer such a bill gets to primary season the harder it will be to get done and that will enable Democrats in the house to no end.

Update 3:   I’m not sure if pulling the bill was worse than letting it fail, but the absolute unadulterated glee of the mainstream media all over cable and the net right now should tell you how badly we conservatives have just let ourselves be played.

.

On Monday, March 6th a thud so loud it registered on the Richter Scale was heard all across the United States.  That thud was the sound of Speaker Paul Ryan’s ObamaCare replacement plan being released.  Very quickly his replacement plan was greeted by a chorus of angry criticism from the Freedom Caucus, Freedom Works, the Tea Party Patriots, and so many other conservative/libertarian organizations.  All of those organizations saw Speaker Ryan’s proposal as a betrayal of their principles.  Labels such as ObamaCare 2.0, ObamaCare Lite, RyanCare, and RinoCare were immediately thrown at the proposal .

Here is an excerpt from a Senator Rand Paul interview, which was published in this Breitbart Article, where he criticizes Speaker Ryan’s legislation.

I think the reason why the House leadership bill is Obamacare Lite is because it retains subsidies. Obamacare had subsidies for people to buy insurance. In the Paul Ryan bill, they keep the subsidies—they just call them refundable tax credits. Some people are predicting that it’s actually going to be more expensive than the subsidies we have under Obamacare. This isn’t you getting your own money back, this is you getting somebody else’s money

The second thing that Paul Ryan’s Obamacare Lite bill does is they keep the Obamacare taxes—all of them—for a year. And then after a year, they keep the Cadillac Tax forever. That’s the tax on if you have really good insurance, Obamacare taxes that. So will Paul Ryan’s plan.

The third thing they do that is Obamacare-like is they keep the individual mandate. It seems like every Republican says they were against the individual mandate. That’s if you didn’t buy insurance you had to pay a penalty to the government, a tax. Obamacare Lite, Paul Ryan’s plan, just changes it so you have to pay a penalty to the insurance companies.

Then the fourth thing they do is they actually subsidize the insurance companies. Right now, insurance companies are losing money and Obamacare has this rescue thing called ‘risk corridors’ to bail out the insurance companies. Paul Ryan has got the same thing, he just calls it reinsurance and it’s $100 million worth. I predict that might not even be enough.

Speaker Ryan claims that his proposal is the best that can be done, because the repeal and replace needs to be done under Budget Reconciliation, to avoid a Democrat filibuster in the Senate.  According to Speaker Ryan his legislative proposal is just step one in a 3 step process.  Here is how he describes this process on his official website

As Speaker Ryan explained at his press conference, this approach has three overarching phases:

The American Health Care Act, which takes full advantage of the budget reconciliation process to avoid a Democratic filibuster;

Administration actions, notably by HHS Secretary Price, to stabilize the health insurance market, increase choices, and lower costs; and

Additional legislative policies, such as allowing individuals to purchase coverage across state lines, that by Senate rules cannot be included in a reconciliation bill.

Unfortunately, Speaker Ryan’s original proposal is such a miserable starting point for this Herculean effort it makes achieving anything worthwhile nearly impossible.

Many Republicans have stated that Speaker Ryan’s proposal is open to amendments.  This is what Representative Mark Sanford had to say about amendments in this Breitbart Article:

With regard to a healthcare bill moving forward, I see leadership’s healthcare plan as an opening proposal,

The debate that is forming will allow conservatives to enhance and improve what has been proposed, and I think this could represent a win for patients, healthcare providers, and the taxpayer alike.

Hopefully major amendments to Speaker Ryan’s proposal will be allowed,  but I’m not at all optimistic about that.

Why is Speaker Ryan’s proposal such a miserable first attempt?  Conservative Review has a very insightful theory  which they shared in this Article

In order to benefit individuals, a plan would have to focus on choice, competition, flexibility – the things that allow people to purchase what best suits their needs. Enter the next act in the health care reform drama – Paul Ryan’s “American Health Care Act” (AHCA for short). Republicans believe in free markets, right? So clearly the fundamental underpinnings of a Republican-designed health care plan will focus on freedom and individual choice, right? Uh … right?

A close look at the AHCA reveals a different operating philosophy, one more tied to preserving the status quo and appeasing industry interests than to improving cost of care, and choice for individuals. Put more simply, Paul Ryan’s Obamacare substitute is fundamentally geared toward keeping a stable customer base for insurers and encouraging universal insurance coverage rather than toward enabling a free market for health care.

According to this article, The Federalist has a theory about why Speaker Ryan’s proposal fails to repeal ObamaCare:

If you want to know why Republicans have bogged down, notice one peculiar thing about the Obamacare debate so far. It’s not really a debate over Obamacare, it’s a debate over Medicaid. That’s because Obamacare mostly turned out to be a big expansion of Medicaid. The health insurance exchanges that were supposed to provide affordable private health insurance (under a government aegis) never really delivered.

Ever since the passage of ObamaCare, Republican were united under the banner of full repeal and then replace.  Unfortunately, Speaker Ryan’s proposal is only a partial repeal. After the release of RyanCare, the Republicans are now seriously, if not hopelessly,  divided.  I believe only a return to full repeal will unite the Republican Party.  After the full repeal then the Republicans can pass a free market, patient centered replacement such as the one Senator Rand Paul authored.  Here is a link to his plan: Rand Paul Plan.