There are multiple reports in the media that Former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown will endorse Donald Trump for President today.

It is likely that I will not have access to the net when/if it happens so I am writing this in anticipation of the event and all conclusions are based on the report being correct, but let me say right now that if it’s true it’s very significant not because of Scott Brown’s popularity with the Tea Party which has taken a huge hit but with his popularity with the Establishment.

Recall that Senator Brown was the hand picked candidate of the GOP establishment to run in NH, beating out several Tea Party candidates with better records on things like guns, and being practically the only GOP senator to fail to unseat a Democrat incumbent in trouble.

That being the case one might have expected Scott Brown to go with Jeb Bush, or John Kasich or even Chris Christie.

And with the strong finish by Marco Rubio and the MSM dubbing him the new GOP establishment he might have been another viable choice for an endorsement.

He has not.

This is a very public declaration by a candidate currently identified with the NH GOP establishment that the normal establishment candidate are not going anywhere, furthermore it suggests that Donald Trump is still considered the guy to beat in the state.

Also it gives Donald Trump a boost at a time when he most needs it with a candidate who has crossover appeal to democrats who might not want to vote for Hillary but can’t bring themselves to go Bernie and a signal to the “Stop Cruz at any price” crowd, that it is Trump, not Rubio who has the best chance to beat him.

On the minus side Brown has burned some bridges with 2a guys and some conservative activists but in fairness those guys are likely already with Ted Cruz so it’s not a big loss for Trump.

I’ll say this for the Donald, between Palin, Brown and Dole he really has a group of endorsers who are diverse.

It’s no exaggeration to say that this race is not finished with providing surprises.

Today is day 2 of the New Hampshire First in the Nation Leadership Summit and this is clearly not the same Summit we saw last year.

It’s true we have some familiar faces NY re Peter King is back again as is Joe Scarborough but their presence is overwhelmed by a collection of presidential candidate from Jeb Bush to Chris Christie and more.

But while the Press rushes from candidate to candidate in order to get 30 or 60 clip they want for their report there is one group of people who trump them so much that the candidates and their campaigns spare no effort to gain their attention.

The NH State Representatives and activists. People like this man

and this man

and this woman

This is one of the most crowded fields in political history. There will be plenty of money, plenty of media and plenty of talk but the basic ingredient that wins elections is the ground game.

I think Senator Scott gave the best advice to the crowded field:


If you want to win in NH you have to do the legwork and have an in with the local activist and voters and if you don’t manage it, you won’t get very far.

The activists of NH will be waiting watching and listening

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The latest in our series of posts that will not surprise any person who has been paying attention.

Today’s installment comes a post from Granite Grok & a tweet from Boston Bridget on the Elections in NH.

While the GOP was winning Governorships in Illinois, Maryland and even Massachusetts and Republican Senate Candidates were winning every senate seat in sight at the very same time Maggie Hassan was beating Walt Havenstein holding the Governorship and Scott Brown was losing to Jeanne Shaheen.

Mind you they managed to do this at the same time that Republican increased their majority in the state Senate and won the House in the state going from 40 seats down to 70 seats up

So How did Havenstein manage to lose when the GOP was winning statewide? Granite Grok provides a clue

I can now tell the story – a meeting was set up, like back in 2010 with the leaders of the L&F wing of the Party with Papa Smurf (John Sununu Sr), for Havenstein. Walt arrived – and only 4 people were there instead of the scores that had been invited. Each and every one of them, including me, said “No apology, no support. We will not be used as cover; we will not be there”. It is my understanding that Havenstein was PISSED – he was the Nominee so how DARE he not get that support and stomped out redfaced when told the reasons. He assumed that votes would be there – you know what “assumed” means. A lack of Consistency.

 

Oddly it appears that if you use sexual slurs to describe your base and refuse to apologize said people choose not to show up and vote for you.

Unlike Haverstein Brown didn’t directly insult his voters but he did choose to emphasize positions his base hated:

Brown especially with his absolutely pandering in on-bended-knee-running to Shaheen’s Left on being “I’m more Pro-Choice than her!!!!” told another large group of normally Conservative Republicans “I don’t need you at ALL” – that would be the large Pro-Life voters to whom this issue IS their top issue if not their SINGLE issue when voting.

 

Mind you there were pragmatic people who tried for him. Boston Bridget is as pro-life as they come yet there wasn’t a person who worked harder to try and elect him north of the border but that didn’t move the faithful:

The Groksters come to a conclusion:

In each of these candidates, not maintaining a Consistency with their base cost them. It should show that trying to replace that base with another, and being very untransparent about it, failed to create a Trust and you both lost votes.

 

Yeah but a lot of high paid GOP consultant said otherwise, and we all know they know a whole lot more than a blogger in a Fedora and scarf.

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As everyone knows I supported first Karen Testerman and then Bob Smith for the GOP Senate in NH furthermore I argued that nominating Scott Brown might cause 2A and pro-life people to stay home.

However not only did Scott Brown win the primary but he’s run an excellent campaign overall. Combine this with a poor campaign by Shaheen, and the record of president Obama on Ebola & ISIS and viola Senator Brown has a real chance to take that seat.

In one respect win or lose Brown has already done a huge service for the GOP. When the election season began nobody was picking NH as a state the GOP could flip. Thanks to a strong well-financed campaign by Brown the left has spent an inordinate amount of 3rd party/national money resources defending New Hampshire that they could have spent in Louisiana, or Alaska, or North Dakota, or Colorado, or Arkansas, or Iowa, or North Carolina or Montana or Virginia or in the Florida Governor Race etc etc etc.

Taking money from the left is good, but winning the Senate is better and now the Tea Party and Conservatives in New Hampshire have a chance to not only spike the ball providing a final service for conservatives running nationwide.

Until election day an election is like a marketing campaign, but on election day it’s like a battle where morale is critical. As New Hampshire is one of the eastern states it will be reporting earlier than many other states.

If the Democrats media allies can project a victory in New Hampshire fairly early it will keep up the morale of liberals farther west where pols are still open who will be working as hard as they can to hold senate and house seats. It will provide a narrative that will make it easier for Democrat talking heads to keep the troops fighting till the last poll closes.

But picture if by 9 or 10 PM New Hampshire is still in doubt, or better yet imagine if the networks find themselves calling the state for Brown.

Picture the analysts on MSNBC trying to spin a Brown victory as not a fatal disaster for Democrats, picture them trying to give hope to their party faithful farther west, that a loss in NH doesn’t mean the Senate is going GOP bigtime while wearing drawn faces. Even a race that can’t be called will have a depressing effect.

Such a blow could be critical, if the left decides there simply isn’t hope how many may choose to give up? How many will go home, stop working, vote for a green or 3rd party liberal or even to not bother to vote figuring they can’t make a difference. Picture what that will mean not just in Senate & House races but up and down the ticket for the GOP.

While Senator Brown is not the ideal candidate to many conservatives aiding a victory by him on Tuesday might in NH might make the difference between winning and losing for stronger House and Senate conservatives across the nation.

So I urge you , if you are a New Hampshire Tea Party voter, a second amendment defender or even like me, a strong pro-life voter and considered staying home or even voting 3rd party reconsider, because choosing to elect Scott Brown may do more for your cause than you can possibly imagine.

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“To the angel of the church in Laodicea, 10 write this: ” ‘The Amen, the faithful and true witness, the source of God’s creation, says this:

I know your works; I know that you are neither cold nor hot. I wish you were either cold or hot.   So, because you are lukewarm, neither hot nor cold, I will spit you out of my mouth.   For you say, ‘I am rich and affluent and have no need of anything,’ and yet do not realize that you are wretched, pitiable, poor, blind, and naked. I advise you to buy from me gold refined by fire so that you may be rich, and white garments to put on so that your shameful nakedness may not be exposed, and buy ointment to smear on your eyes so that you may see. Those whom I love, I reprove and chastise. Be earnest, therefore, and repent.

Revelation 3:14-19

Avram:  He’s right and he’s right?  They can’t both be right.

Tevye:You know you are also right.

Fiddler on the Roof 1971

It is said that the best compromises are ones where everyone walks away angry, if that is the case I suspect a fair amount of my readership must consider me compromised over the last few election cycles:

For example I’ve upset the teams of establishment republicans like Mitt Romney, Charlie Baker and Scott Brown by pointing out their weaknesses in their position and disdain for the base of the party. A base that a candidate needs if they are going to win elections because said base provides the unpaid foot soldiers that do so much of the busy work on a campaign. That kind of talk doesn’t endear you to the candidates or their teams and it leads to posts like this from Robert Stacy McCain:

See, here’s my problem: It’s not just that I remember all the recent backstabbing and sellouts by Mitch McConnell and his GOP Senate cronies, but I also remember the history of Republican Senate majorities under such paragons of conservative leadership as Bob Dole and Trent Lott. I remember how GOP leaders begged and groveled in their vain attempts to retain the “party loyalty” of such stalwarts of Republican principle as Jim Jeffords and Arlen Specter. And then I think one more time about that Mississippi primary, you see, and the way all these things keep adding up in my mind . . .

Well, maybe Mitch McConnell will be Senate Majority Leader next year. Maybe that gives you a raging boner, just thinking about it.

But speaking for myself, “Meh.”

They haven’t done a damned thing to suggest they even care whether I care or not. And I’m pretty sure I don’t care. Do you? Why?

On the other hand while acknowledging this problem I’ve also noted that after Mitt Romney, Charlie Baker and Scott Brown won their primaries I’ve urged Tea Party people and the GOP base to support them (well not so much Charlie Baker but that’s partly what this post is about) noting not only the positions I agree with them but of the absolutely horrid choices their opponents are and the fact that or the other will have the right and the power to legislate over us.

This hasn’t pleased those who insist there is:

#1. No difference between the parties

#2 That we are enabling those who are discarding us.

To some degree this is correct, there are plenty of interests in the GOP and to a degree a GOP win in this election will be simply a question of GOP interests getting favor vs the left’s interest getting favor and if that sounds like the intrigue of a feudal court that’s because it’s exactly what it is.  This type of talk doesn’t endear me to tea party types  but this argument produces pieces like this from Gene Schwimmer at the American Thinker who lists Obama’s sins from Obamacare to Red lines and then notes the future:

The above bullet points detail what Obama has done in the past. What about the future? Currently on deck, executive amnesty for unlawful aliens, temporarily on the back burner on the pleadings of vulnerable red-state Democrats and by the dread of possibly having to govern with a Republican Senate and House for his last two years.

And here’s an angle conservatives thinking of sitting out the election apparently have not considered: Obama leaves office in 2017. Any other president would want to leave the maximum number of Democrats behind in the House and Senate; however, the political calculations of this most arrogant and narcissistic of presidents will be different. After noon on January 20, 2017, Barack Obama will no longer be president and thus will no longer care whether any Democratic senator or representative is re-elected. After January 20, 2017, he won’t need them anymore.

Democrats might want to think about that while take-no-prisoner conservative purists planning to stay home on November 4 ponder what a completely uninhibited President Obama, the clock ticking on the final two years of his term, might try to accomplish by executive order.

Annoying everyone is not the best way to keep a radio show on the air but the question before the house is:  Which of these two arguments are right?

The answer is both of them.

Yes the Republicans have not earned my vote, they have been squishes they have on occasion kicked us to the curb for their own purposes, but in the End we are conservatives and there is one fact so obvious that I’m ashamed to have to point it out.

Life isn’t Fair!

This is a fact that conservatives should already know, unlike our liberal friends we have to deal with things as they are while doing our best to move things to the way they ought to be.

To my social conservative friends who stayed home over Mitt Romney, ask yourself, would he not have felt it necessary to defend federal law in the DOMA cases?

To my 2nd Amendment friends in NH Would Scott Brown be running around the country providing star power for democrats this cycle? (And if he won would’t we have a pro-life pro 2nd Amendment candidate in NH today? “

To those Tea Party members who fought so hard to get the repeal of the Automatic Gas tax on the ballot?  Would Charlie Baker have allowed the Gas Tax to be linked to the inflation rate forcing us to resort to a ballot question to repeal it?

The time and effort that all of these decisions have cost us could have been spent fighting for other things if he had elected these men last time around.

On election day therefore it is our job in fact our duty to vote for the most viable conservative choice possible to keep thing from moving too far in the wrong direction, even if that choice is not the one we would like to see.

Meanwhile our bigger job is to act and to educate.  Fiscal and Social conservatives not only have better ideas we have the history of these ideas actually working,  Yes the world is full of low information voters out there who have no clue, our job is to give them a clue, to fight the war in the media, in the papers and in the culture to demonstrate the wisdom of what we do and espouse.

It will not be an easy fight, the culture and the media will fight strongly against us but reality is a powerful point in our favor.

Only then when we are willing to make the public case for conservatism and take the slings and arrows that come from it will we be able to move enough of the public so that the courtiers and the connected will find their way to support us, not because of their love of justice and right but because it will profit them and when they come the toadies will follow.

So if you are in New Hampshire make sure that Scott Brown makes it to 51% and when he does make damn sure he knows the difference between 51% & 49% were conservatives like you.

In Massachusetts make sure Charlie Baker gets to 51% and when he does make damn sure he know the difference between that 51% & 49% were conservatives like you

And finally in 2016 get out and vote for the GOP Nominee, even if it is Chris Christie, Jeb Bush or Mitt Romney and make sure every single hanger on who gets a job in DC because if it has that job because of conservatives like you.

And then get out there and made the case for conservatism to the neighbor, to your friends and to your community by your words and your deeds every single day of the year.

And if you think this is too hard, too ambitious and too much work ask yourself this.

Where would the country be if Rush Limbaugh decided it was too hard to fight for conservatism and just decided to spin discs for the last 30 years?

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Well the Massachusetts & New Hampshire Primaries are over and I have thoughts about the results

1. I think Martha Coakley has one advantage over Steve Grossman when it comes to facing Charlie Baker, because she has lost a race to a republican she is unlikely to take him lightly. Granted it’s unlikely the prospect of a national GOP wave will make any difference in Massachusetts, if you are a Democrat the last thing you want to do is let your guard down. Coakley has been burned once I doubt she’ll let herself get burned again.

2. Mark Fisher drew 25% of the vote. One must assume that this is the Tea Party ceiling in the state, 39,545. Charlie Baker didn’t need these votes to win the primary but he is definitely going to need them in November.

3. If you want to get an idea of how uphill a fight Baker has. with 98% of the vote in Baker drew 114,461. Don Berwick The Third place finisher in the Democrat primary who you likely never heard of drew 113,296. Think of it. Baker’s 74% of the GOP vote only outpolled an unknown democrat by 1,165 votes.

4. Let’s put it another way, it’s been suggested that a lot of conservatives took Democrat ballots to vote against Coakley. If every single one of those Grossman votes go to Baker and all of Berwick’s votes go to Coakley Baker loses by over 30,000 votes unless he draws those Fisher votes. This is what you call a rock and a hard place.

5. The most interesting result of the night in the state was Seth Moulton unseating Rep John Tierney in the 6th district drawing over 49% of the vote to Tierney’s 41% (three minor candidates drew a combined 9.7%

6. Tierney’s wife’s conviction for tax evasion should have doomed him in 2010 but he won re-election by 13 points that year and 1 point in 2012. The lesson? Voters in Massachusetts 6th district would rather elect a known Democrat Crook than any republican, conservative or liberal.

7. I’ve not seen a Democrat with a more attractive resume than Seth Mouton, businessman, Marine with 4 tours in Iraq however as I look at his issue page all I see a liberal who supports Obamacare, wants more gun laws and thinks Climate Change is the #1 issue facing the world. On the plus side he loves his country enough to fight for it and isn’t a crook.

I’m old enough to remember when those two sentences would have been almost a given for a democrat, now it’s extraordinary.

8. If Richard Tisei couldn’t beat John Tierney he has absolutely no prayer against Mouton. On social issues there is practically no difference between them (Moe Lane is dead wrong here) so Mouton’s 4 tours as a Marine in Iraq will be the deciding factor but that’s not as fatal as his but , particularly given that Tisei’s boycott of the convention was an embarrassment to both the party & Baker. While it was overshadowed by the party’s foolishness vis a vis Fisher there are people in the establishment with long memories who haven’t forgiven him.

7. With the house safely in GOP hands no matter what happens in Ma-6 the national party which might have kicked in a few bucks vs Tierney isn’t going to waste a penny in the impossible task of defeating Mouton.

8. In New Hampshire I was sad to see Andrew Hemingway lose the GOP primary for governor. He is a dynamic young man who would have been a great candidate.

9. The single most important number in Scott Brown’s victory yesterday is 49%. If NH had a runoff system like Mississippi Brown would have to face Jim Rubens head to head. That would have been an interesting race

10. Brown’s ability to get almost 50% in a contested GOP primary suggests that NH is at the tipping point. Within a generation or two NH will not be an acceptable destination for conservatives wanting out of Massachusetts & it wouldn’t surprise me to see them start fleeing NH for red states.

11. On the plus side for the GOP Brown’s large campaign chest is going to force Democrats to devote millions to keep NH from giving the GOP any bit of wiggle room if they take back the senate. (That alone should be enough of an argument for conservatives to unite behind Brown. Every dollar spent in NH by the left is a dollar they can’t spend to defend in NC LA or anywhere else.

12. The most hopeful result was Marilinda Garcia’s victory in the nh-2 congressional race. I’ve been following Garcia for a while and she is the real deal. I suspect the left will go all out to stop her even beyond Brown.

The McCullen v Coakley case that removed the three-point lines in Massachusetts is the potential to have some interesting effects on both the national level and the local level.

Locally of course Coakley is Martha Coakley the current AG of Massachusetts now running for governor. Earlier this month Steve Grossman managed to get the endorsement of the Democrat party for the nomination while Coakley is still leading in the polls.

Coakley will likely be able to parley her name on that case to gain further sympathy from hard core pro-abortion activists, while Grossman can argue that Coakley team did a poor job arguing for the law before the court, so poor that she lost unanimously.

There is also the possibility that outgoing governor Deval Patrick might try to rush a new law through with his large majorities, as both Coakley & Grossman are in state government it’s unclear who that would help.

On the Republican side the issue is a godsend for Mark Fisher. Fisher has already gotten the endorsement of Mass right to life and can engage the base by his celebration of the result.

Not so Charlie Baker

“Charlie hopes the current law is upheld,” a Baker spokesperson told BostInno. Though vague in nature, the statement could be taken in a manner that Baker is, in fact, pro choice, or that he’s simply a proponent of laws enacted at the state level. Either way, his show of support for the cause, however broad in his choice of words, a positive direction for bipartisan collaboration in customarily blue Massachusetts.

Now Fisher is going to need a lot of breaks to beat Baker and this certainly isn’t enough to make the difference but it’s important to note that last thing Baker needs is a reminder to activists that he is squishy on life, particularly if we end up with a 3rd party candidate that’s pro-life on the ballot.

Any believing catholic wanting to avoid mortal sin (you know the type that sends you to hell) would be duty bound given the choice between pro-abortion candidates & a pro life one can only vote one way. As for myself as a Catholic no election is worth my soul.

While this case is likely to make things a little more interesting in Massachusetts it’s going to make things a LOT more interesting in New Hampshire.

Scott Brown ran as a pro-choice candidate last time around, I still remember the ads, they made me sick but as there was not a pro-life choice it was possible to morally vote for him.

In the GOP primary in NH that’s a different story, Senator Brown already has a guns issue that could cost him the 2nd Amendment voters, this case can’t help but highlight that he is a pro-abortion republican which will certainly energize pro-life republicans to turn out in a primary against him.

Nationally the ruling might be a wash simply because the case was 9-0 (take a look at the twitter to see leftist heads explode over the unanimous decision, but Ed Morrissey when reading the decision proper noticed what I did:

There was a considerable amount of disagreement on the idea that the law was content-neutral, and this is the crux of the problem for free-speech advocates. Justice Antonin Scalia issued a scalding concurrence in part, with Justices Anthony Kennedy and Clarence Thomas joining, warning that this decision makes proving a violation of content neutrality in speech restrictions all but impossible:

The four conservatives justices sans the chief wrote concurrent opinions bluntly saying this was unconstitutional on its face while the actual decision practically listed the ways Massachusetts could pass a law that the court could support.

That suggests that the decision was written the way it was in order to get the 9-0 result rather than the 5-4 at best result that would have given conservatives the whole 10 yards. It’s not unusual for a Chief to try to get a unanimous court but those who pay attention might read the tea leaves and decide that it’s more important to get the majority in the Senate to keep the president from replacing any of those 4 liberal votes that was against him today.

Either way November certainly won’t be boring.

If you are a regular reader of this blog you know I think Senator Scott Brown NH Senate run is a mistake that has some potentially disastrous consequences for the GOP in NH. I think it would have been better if Senator Brown had choose to run in Massachusetts and I suspect Charlie Baker would have preferred the same., instead.

But with Brown’s candidacya fait accompli it’s time to look at the bright side, particularly for people like me who support other GOP candidates..

First of all lets acknowledge the biggest advantage of the Brown Candidacy the money.

Before Brown’s entry in the race where Shaheen had a huge advantage in both name recognition and cash.

Scott Brown is a money machine that is drawing national money to the NH GOP race,

Because of Senator Brown’s high name recognition and his strategy of totally ignoring his primary opponents practically all of his money and media can be spent attacking Shaheen. Brown’s high media profile combined with the media wanting him to be the candidate guarantees those attacks will get exposure other attacks would not.

Suddenly Jeanne Shaheen has to play defense against a well funded primary opponent attacking her.  It also means Jeanne Shaheen will be spending the vast majority of her money counter attacking Senator Brown to the exclusion of anyone else.

And the media, cheerleading for Shaheen will be doing the same, practically pretending the remainder of the GOP field:  Smith, Rubens & Martin are ignored.

Now in almost any other state such a situation would be the sound of doom for the rest of the GOP field, but in NH it’s a potentially spectacular development.

Imagine that you are Bob Smith or Jim Rubens till September 9th, the entire air war that you would need to launch against Senator Shaheen is going to be fought for you while at the same time Brown takes all the flak allowing you to take no damage in return.

Now if you live in Ohio, or Texas or even Wyoming you might think this is a real problem but New Hampshire is the perfect place to run a small budget ground game.

NH is a small state, its 10 counties consist of only 244 Cities and towns. Only 26 of them have a population over 10,000 and only Manchester has a population over 100,000.  It is also a small state in area, one can drive from on end to the other in just a few hours   A candidate who did three events a day from May through August could literally do an event in every town in the state, give two extra visits to the cities & towns with over 10,000 residents and STILL take one day a week off to unwind.

If you’re, Bob Smith Jim Rubens that’s very doable.

While Brown courts the big money Donors & the GOP establishment Smith & Rubens can concentrate on the base,.  Now that my candidate Karen Testerman has pulled out and endorsed Smith it’s even a bigger deal since Rubens draws from the same pool that Senator Brown does.

It is time for all of us to put aside pride and focus on our greater GOAL, that of fighting for Family, Faith and Freedom.  I will not force our principle-driven primary voters to make a self-defeating choice.  After much prayer and consultation, I will step aside to allow Senator Bob Smith to be the ONLY conservative name on the primary ballot.

Senator Smith has a well-earned reputation of standing firm for our conservative beliefs and values and for fighting Washington to stop their overreach. Bob Smith was TEA Party before it had a name.

While the rest of the MSM doesn’t get it Jazz Shaw does:

Smith was already nearly within the margins for going head to head against Shaheen – down by roughly six – and any significant bump from former Testerman voters could easily put him in the lead.

And if that’s the case Shaheen could pivot but she does’t DARE pivot, because Brown attacks aren’t about to stop and Shaheen’s record of support for the increasingly unpopular Obama becomes more dangerous by the day.  I’ll give Jazz again

… …All of this spells trouble not only for Shaheen, but for anyone perceived as being soft on conservative issues. So is Brown simply destined to steamroll to the nomination with a pile of out of state money, only to lose to Shaheen later? I still wouldn’t bet the farm on it. We may be seeing more of Bob Smith’s name as the summer wears on and we slowly make our way to the state’s very late, Sept. 9th primary.

If Bob Smith wins the GOP primary Jazz Shaw will look like a genius to the MSM only just shy of Nate Silver.

This is the 10th of my series of Sarah Palin clips from CPAC 2014 & commentary upon them:

Day 1: The Crowd
Day 2: The Entrance
Day 3: Dr. Seuss
Day 4: Why Sarah Feels Good
Day 5: Playing Prevent
Day 6: Sinking Ships
Day 7: Flexibility Pens & Putin
Day 8: Anticipation
Day 9: Don’t blow it

Yesterday we talked about how unexpected the win in Fl-13 was, today lets remind folk about 2010.

If you are new to the story you might not remember the days before 2010 when GOP stalwarts told us our only chance was to cooperate with Barack Obama, to refuse to fight back against Barack Obama, to accept the changes that Barack Obama was offering.

The only two people who seemed to be in a fighting mood were Rush Limbaugh & Sarah Palin.

It wasn’t til the Brown win that any of this started to change and as late as January 8th 2010 (the election was the 19th) the Boston Phoenix ran this story which said (emphasis mine)

In less than two weeks, when Massachusetts voters elect Martha Coakley to the US Senate — let’s not pretend that Republican state senator Scott Brown has any chance of pulling off the monumental upset — they will trigger a massive domino effect that has the state’s political class buzzing with anticipation.

Even after Scott Brown won in Massachusetts shocking the entire country the MSM was in denial. As late as October 2010 we were seeing stories like this:

And posts like this from Politico

Top Democratic officials are convinced, and even some Republicans privately concede, that what’s happening is that party loyalists are coming home and other voters are beginning to assess both candidates in individual races.

“The early polls were really a gauge of people’s anger, but more recent polls are a gauge of people’s options,” Delaware Gov. and Democratic Governors Association Chairman Jack Markell told POLITICO.

What’s driving Democratic optimism is improving polling numbers — both in individual races and in generic indicators — ramped-up fundraising and their field efforts.

It wasn’t until the One Nation & Jon Stewart Rally crashed and burned that the MSM tuned their narrative the day before the election:

That’s why these remarks by Sarah Palin’s remarks are so important

Sarah reminds us that you advance by moving forward and being unafraid to fight.

In 2010 the GOP stepped back and let the Tea Party carry them over the finish line, in 2012 the decided that the Tea Party was not needed for victory and lost.

It’s 2014 and the GOP needs to decide if it wants to dance with the Tea Party that gave them the House majority. There is no reason why the GOP & the Tea Party working together should not guarantee huge GOP victories winning seats in the house and capturing the Senate.

If the GOP doesn’t realize this and decides it’s more important to defeat the Tea Party then the Democrats then will foolishly get their wish.

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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Wednesday and yesterday a pair of tip jar hits moved us to $87 toward our goal of $365 to pay the mortgage and the writers.

After two dismal weeks it’s vital to get those 11 $25 tip jar hits necessary to make the weekly goal to even have an outside chance of making the mortgage this month

We’ve done a lot in the last 10 days from CPAC to NLRC. but it can’t be done without you.

 

With 61 more $20 a month subscribers this site will be able to cover its bills for a full year.

I would ask that you do subscribe by hitting the button below.  If your finances allow it, consider choosing Hat level or better.  A subscription comes not only with exclusive commentary, but on a weekly basis you will have the opportunity to get direct access to me by phone to provide feedback or suggestions to make sure this site is worthy of your financial support and patronage.


 

Yesterday was the close of NLRC 2014 in Nashua New Hampshire an event that was filled with Republicans from the Northeast talking and feeling optimistic about election 2014. The event was well-managed both by the hotel & by the NHGOP. The party & staff under chair Jennifer Horn did an excellent job putting it together.

There are many stories from this event and I’ll be posting more video over the next few days but the story that grabbed the majority of the media was Scott Brown’s announcement of the formation of an exploratory committee to run in New Hampshire. The place was just swarming with press over it.

:

Then came the senator’s speech

I thought it was pretty good and was delivered with great feeling hitting several strong GOP points. It certainly impressed this attendee

Before I say another word let me speak this for the record. Scott Brown was a pretty good Senator from Massachusetts.  He was very open about his positions, carried himself well to the voters in general and even when people disagreed with him, particularly on the Tea Party side always gave them time and a respectful.

I suspect the tea party bridges he burned came from bad consultant advice. On a personal level you can’t help but like the man and his wife Gail is not only charming but just plain nice.

I wish he was running in Massachusetts against Ed Markey instead of in NH.  I think he would have won the special election there AND would win a contest in the state now.

New Hampshire,that’s a totally different story

New Hampshire is one of the most informed voter bases in the nation.  They have more state reps per citizen than any other and take their politics seriously.

To a crowd of low information voters Senator Brown’s stirring speech would have been the start of a rallying cry but the problem is, the GOP base in New Hampshire, like the rest of the tea party types, are not made of low information voters.

They remember Scott Brown opinion on the assault weapons ban and were angry enough to show up in freezing cold 300 strong last year to protest it. They remember the 2012 campaign where in ads he described himself as a “different kind of republican” as if there is something wrong with being one. They remember the ads portraying him as pro-choice that really bothers people like me.  As NH gets blanketed by Massachusetts media they couldn’t avoid those ads if they tried.

They also remember the day after his hand-picked chair for the GOP chair squeaked though on the second ballot to get the top GOP job in the state on the back the belief it would mean Brown would be running in the special election to replace John Kerry, he announced he would not be running (a huge shame BTW as Kristen Hughes has turned out to be an excellent party chair who would have carried Brown over the finish line).

In short they remember him running from the tea party after being elected, running away from the GOP during his last campaign and then running from the fight.

Now comes 2014 and it’s looking like 2010 all over again and what happens?

Brown doesn’t run in Massachusetts where he could easily contrast himself with Ed (voting present) Markey on Obamacare AND on a willingness to stand up and be counted.

He crosses the border back to NH because Jeanne Shaheen is considered vulnerable and is now giving speeches about republican unity. Even Maureen Dowd sees this:

It’s not that Democrats are particularly scared that the 54-year-old former Massachusetts senator is going to get elected as a New Hampshire senator — although it’s conceivable that a charming, carpetbagging, middling politician could jump across the border and unseat Jeanne Shaheen.

FYi Dowd’s Carpetbagging charge is bogus, Brown was Born in NH he’s had connections to the state for years and frankly if NH disqualified people who escaped from Massachusetts from the state you’d disenfranchise half the electorate, but she’s spot on two paragraphs later

This is what’s really freaking out Democrats: They know that Brown, after making some real money working for Fox News since his loss to Elizabeth Warren two years ago, wouldn’t even be getting into the race if the political environment weren’t so toxic for Democrats.

That’s really the issue,  Browns decision to run appears to people in NH as something imposed from on high and that brings up another sore spot in the state that can best be illustrated by what or rather who I didn’t see at NLRC 2014.

Granite Grok.

Granite Grok is the premiere conservative group blog in the state. There is nobody that has advanced conservative position and candidates with more strength. Furthermore they are generally everywhere if a political event is taking place Granite Grok is there to cover it and stream it live.

Grok didn’t show up. Their reaction to the Scott Brown run was the title of their post:

Meh

Grok’s absence symbolizes the split between the Tea Party wing of the NH GOP & the Establishment wing of the GOP.  It’s reaching the point of open war. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that a conservative 3rd party will arise in the state after the November election unless this is taken care of.

This has to be addressed NOW. Scott Brown & the NH GOP’s problem is a lot like Mitch McConnell at CPAC he needs to address the elephant in the room which are his positions on life and guns because as of today those NH Republicans will not turn up and vote for Senator Brown in a general election.

And if they don’t forget a senate seat in Washington, if they stay home the NHGOP can kiss the prospect of taking back the state house and senate goodbye in a year where Democrats in the state are running scared.

Nominating Brown takes the gun issue off the table that the GOP should be able to beat the Democrats over the head with and will put Kelly Ayotte who voted on the right side of the bill on the spot two years before her re-election campaign.

I’ve said this before and I will again, my candidate is Karen Testerman (her site is here) but if Brown is nominated the GOP had better decide to mend fences fast, or it will cost them more than they bargained for.

Of course the best solution is just voting for Karen, she can hit Shaheen on the 2nd Amendment like this:

when Senator Brown can not.

Update:  added a link & rearranged an ambiguous sentence.

Update 2: Jazz Shaw interviewed Karen Testerman yesterday:

Since joining the primary hunt last fall, Testerman has been a target of liberals in the Granite state. A spokesperson for the state Democrat party responded to her initial announcement by describing her as a far-right extremist and a rubber stamp for the Tea Party.

Jazz did some great work in NH this weekend.
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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Sunday a new week and I hate to start it on a down note but we’ve now had three straight weeks without making our goal.

Without 15 $25 tip jar hits we will have no prospect of making mortgage this month.

I’m going to bluntly say I need you to hit this tip jar if you if this experiment is going to succeed.

Your call.

 

With 61 more $20 a month subscribers this site will be able to cover its bills for a full year.

I would ask that you do subscribe by hitting the button below.  If your finances allow it, consider choosing Hat level or better.  A subscription comes not only with exclusive commentary, but on a weekly basis you will have the opportunity to get direct access to me by phone to provide feedback or suggestions to make sure this site is worthy of your financial support and patronage.