There are multiple reports in the media that Former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown will endorse Donald Trump for President today.

It is likely that I will not have access to the net when/if it happens so I am writing this in anticipation of the event and all conclusions are based on the report being correct, but let me say right now that if it’s true it’s very significant not because of Scott Brown’s popularity with the Tea Party which has taken a huge hit but with his popularity with the Establishment.

Recall that Senator Brown was the hand picked candidate of the GOP establishment to run in NH, beating out several Tea Party candidates with better records on things like guns, and being practically the only GOP senator to fail to unseat a Democrat incumbent in trouble.

That being the case one might have expected Scott Brown to go with Jeb Bush, or John Kasich or even Chris Christie.

And with the strong finish by Marco Rubio and the MSM dubbing him the new GOP establishment he might have been another viable choice for an endorsement.

He has not.

This is a very public declaration by a candidate currently identified with the NH GOP establishment that the normal establishment candidate are not going anywhere, furthermore it suggests that Donald Trump is still considered the guy to beat in the state.

Also it gives Donald Trump a boost at a time when he most needs it with a candidate who has crossover appeal to democrats who might not want to vote for Hillary but can’t bring themselves to go Bernie and a signal to the “Stop Cruz at any price” crowd, that it is Trump, not Rubio who has the best chance to beat him.

On the minus side Brown has burned some bridges with 2a guys and some conservative activists but in fairness those guys are likely already with Ted Cruz so it’s not a big loss for Trump.

I’ll say this for the Donald, between Palin, Brown and Dole he really has a group of endorsers who are diverse.

It’s no exaggeration to say that this race is not finished with providing surprises.

Today is day 2 of the New Hampshire First in the Nation Leadership Summit and this is clearly not the same Summit we saw last year.

It’s true we have some familiar faces NY re Peter King is back again as is Joe Scarborough but their presence is overwhelmed by a collection of presidential candidate from Jeb Bush to Chris Christie and more.

But while the Press rushes from candidate to candidate in order to get 30 or 60 clip they want for their report there is one group of people who trump them so much that the candidates and their campaigns spare no effort to gain their attention.

The NH State Representatives and activists. People like this man

and this man

and this woman

This is one of the most crowded fields in political history. There will be plenty of money, plenty of media and plenty of talk but the basic ingredient that wins elections is the ground game.

I think Senator Scott gave the best advice to the crowded field:


If you want to win in NH you have to do the legwork and have an in with the local activist and voters and if you don’t manage it, you won’t get very far.

The activists of NH will be waiting watching and listening

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The latest in our series of posts that will not surprise any person who has been paying attention.

Today’s installment comes a post from Granite Grok & a tweet from Boston Bridget on the Elections in NH.

While the GOP was winning Governorships in Illinois, Maryland and even Massachusetts and Republican Senate Candidates were winning every senate seat in sight at the very same time Maggie Hassan was beating Walt Havenstein holding the Governorship and Scott Brown was losing to Jeanne Shaheen.

Mind you they managed to do this at the same time that Republican increased their majority in the state Senate and won the House in the state going from 40 seats down to 70 seats up

So How did Havenstein manage to lose when the GOP was winning statewide? Granite Grok provides a clue

I can now tell the story – a meeting was set up, like back in 2010 with the leaders of the L&F wing of the Party with Papa Smurf (John Sununu Sr), for Havenstein. Walt arrived – and only 4 people were there instead of the scores that had been invited. Each and every one of them, including me, said “No apology, no support. We will not be used as cover; we will not be there”. It is my understanding that Havenstein was PISSED – he was the Nominee so how DARE he not get that support and stomped out redfaced when told the reasons. He assumed that votes would be there – you know what “assumed” means. A lack of Consistency.

 

Oddly it appears that if you use sexual slurs to describe your base and refuse to apologize said people choose not to show up and vote for you.

Unlike Haverstein Brown didn’t directly insult his voters but he did choose to emphasize positions his base hated:

Brown especially with his absolutely pandering in on-bended-knee-running to Shaheen’s Left on being “I’m more Pro-Choice than her!!!!” told another large group of normally Conservative Republicans “I don’t need you at ALL” – that would be the large Pro-Life voters to whom this issue IS their top issue if not their SINGLE issue when voting.

 

Mind you there were pragmatic people who tried for him. Boston Bridget is as pro-life as they come yet there wasn’t a person who worked harder to try and elect him north of the border but that didn’t move the faithful:

The Groksters come to a conclusion:

In each of these candidates, not maintaining a Consistency with their base cost them. It should show that trying to replace that base with another, and being very untransparent about it, failed to create a Trust and you both lost votes.

 

Yeah but a lot of high paid GOP consultant said otherwise, and we all know they know a whole lot more than a blogger in a Fedora and scarf.

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As everyone knows I supported first Karen Testerman and then Bob Smith for the GOP Senate in NH furthermore I argued that nominating Scott Brown might cause 2A and pro-life people to stay home.

However not only did Scott Brown win the primary but he’s run an excellent campaign overall. Combine this with a poor campaign by Shaheen, and the record of president Obama on Ebola & ISIS and viola Senator Brown has a real chance to take that seat.

In one respect win or lose Brown has already done a huge service for the GOP. When the election season began nobody was picking NH as a state the GOP could flip. Thanks to a strong well-financed campaign by Brown the left has spent an inordinate amount of 3rd party/national money resources defending New Hampshire that they could have spent in Louisiana, or Alaska, or North Dakota, or Colorado, or Arkansas, or Iowa, or North Carolina or Montana or Virginia or in the Florida Governor Race etc etc etc.

Taking money from the left is good, but winning the Senate is better and now the Tea Party and Conservatives in New Hampshire have a chance to not only spike the ball providing a final service for conservatives running nationwide.

Until election day an election is like a marketing campaign, but on election day it’s like a battle where morale is critical. As New Hampshire is one of the eastern states it will be reporting earlier than many other states.

If the Democrats media allies can project a victory in New Hampshire fairly early it will keep up the morale of liberals farther west where pols are still open who will be working as hard as they can to hold senate and house seats. It will provide a narrative that will make it easier for Democrat talking heads to keep the troops fighting till the last poll closes.

But picture if by 9 or 10 PM New Hampshire is still in doubt, or better yet imagine if the networks find themselves calling the state for Brown.

Picture the analysts on MSNBC trying to spin a Brown victory as not a fatal disaster for Democrats, picture them trying to give hope to their party faithful farther west, that a loss in NH doesn’t mean the Senate is going GOP bigtime while wearing drawn faces. Even a race that can’t be called will have a depressing effect.

Such a blow could be critical, if the left decides there simply isn’t hope how many may choose to give up? How many will go home, stop working, vote for a green or 3rd party liberal or even to not bother to vote figuring they can’t make a difference. Picture what that will mean not just in Senate & House races but up and down the ticket for the GOP.

While Senator Brown is not the ideal candidate to many conservatives aiding a victory by him on Tuesday might in NH might make the difference between winning and losing for stronger House and Senate conservatives across the nation.

So I urge you , if you are a New Hampshire Tea Party voter, a second amendment defender or even like me, a strong pro-life voter and considered staying home or even voting 3rd party reconsider, because choosing to elect Scott Brown may do more for your cause than you can possibly imagine.

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“To the angel of the church in Laodicea, 10 write this: ” ‘The Amen, the faithful and true witness, the source of God’s creation, says this:

I know your works; I know that you are neither cold nor hot. I wish you were either cold or hot.   So, because you are lukewarm, neither hot nor cold, I will spit you out of my mouth.   For you say, ‘I am rich and affluent and have no need of anything,’ and yet do not realize that you are wretched, pitiable, poor, blind, and naked. I advise you to buy from me gold refined by fire so that you may be rich, and white garments to put on so that your shameful nakedness may not be exposed, and buy ointment to smear on your eyes so that you may see. Those whom I love, I reprove and chastise. Be earnest, therefore, and repent.

Revelation 3:14-19

Avram:  He’s right and he’s right?  They can’t both be right.

Tevye:You know you are also right.

Fiddler on the Roof 1971

It is said that the best compromises are ones where everyone walks away angry, if that is the case I suspect a fair amount of my readership must consider me compromised over the last few election cycles:

For example I’ve upset the teams of establishment republicans like Mitt Romney, Charlie Baker and Scott Brown by pointing out their weaknesses in their position and disdain for the base of the party. A base that a candidate needs if they are going to win elections because said base provides the unpaid foot soldiers that do so much of the busy work on a campaign. That kind of talk doesn’t endear you to the candidates or their teams and it leads to posts like this from Robert Stacy McCain:

See, here’s my problem: It’s not just that I remember all the recent backstabbing and sellouts by Mitch McConnell and his GOP Senate cronies, but I also remember the history of Republican Senate majorities under such paragons of conservative leadership as Bob Dole and Trent Lott. I remember how GOP leaders begged and groveled in their vain attempts to retain the “party loyalty” of such stalwarts of Republican principle as Jim Jeffords and Arlen Specter. And then I think one more time about that Mississippi primary, you see, and the way all these things keep adding up in my mind . . .

Well, maybe Mitch McConnell will be Senate Majority Leader next year. Maybe that gives you a raging boner, just thinking about it.

But speaking for myself, “Meh.”

They haven’t done a damned thing to suggest they even care whether I care or not. And I’m pretty sure I don’t care. Do you? Why?

On the other hand while acknowledging this problem I’ve also noted that after Mitt Romney, Charlie Baker and Scott Brown won their primaries I’ve urged Tea Party people and the GOP base to support them (well not so much Charlie Baker but that’s partly what this post is about) noting not only the positions I agree with them but of the absolutely horrid choices their opponents are and the fact that or the other will have the right and the power to legislate over us.

This hasn’t pleased those who insist there is:

#1. No difference between the parties

#2 That we are enabling those who are discarding us.

To some degree this is correct, there are plenty of interests in the GOP and to a degree a GOP win in this election will be simply a question of GOP interests getting favor vs the left’s interest getting favor and if that sounds like the intrigue of a feudal court that’s because it’s exactly what it is.  This type of talk doesn’t endear me to tea party types  but this argument produces pieces like this from Gene Schwimmer at the American Thinker who lists Obama’s sins from Obamacare to Red lines and then notes the future:

The above bullet points detail what Obama has done in the past. What about the future? Currently on deck, executive amnesty for unlawful aliens, temporarily on the back burner on the pleadings of vulnerable red-state Democrats and by the dread of possibly having to govern with a Republican Senate and House for his last two years.

And here’s an angle conservatives thinking of sitting out the election apparently have not considered: Obama leaves office in 2017. Any other president would want to leave the maximum number of Democrats behind in the House and Senate; however, the political calculations of this most arrogant and narcissistic of presidents will be different. After noon on January 20, 2017, Barack Obama will no longer be president and thus will no longer care whether any Democratic senator or representative is re-elected. After January 20, 2017, he won’t need them anymore.

Democrats might want to think about that while take-no-prisoner conservative purists planning to stay home on November 4 ponder what a completely uninhibited President Obama, the clock ticking on the final two years of his term, might try to accomplish by executive order.

Annoying everyone is not the best way to keep a radio show on the air but the question before the house is:  Which of these two arguments are right?

The answer is both of them.

Yes the Republicans have not earned my vote, they have been squishes they have on occasion kicked us to the curb for their own purposes, but in the End we are conservatives and there is one fact so obvious that I’m ashamed to have to point it out.

Life isn’t Fair!

This is a fact that conservatives should already know, unlike our liberal friends we have to deal with things as they are while doing our best to move things to the way they ought to be.

To my social conservative friends who stayed home over Mitt Romney, ask yourself, would he not have felt it necessary to defend federal law in the DOMA cases?

To my 2nd Amendment friends in NH Would Scott Brown be running around the country providing star power for democrats this cycle? (And if he won would’t we have a pro-life pro 2nd Amendment candidate in NH today? “

To those Tea Party members who fought so hard to get the repeal of the Automatic Gas tax on the ballot?  Would Charlie Baker have allowed the Gas Tax to be linked to the inflation rate forcing us to resort to a ballot question to repeal it?

The time and effort that all of these decisions have cost us could have been spent fighting for other things if he had elected these men last time around.

On election day therefore it is our job in fact our duty to vote for the most viable conservative choice possible to keep thing from moving too far in the wrong direction, even if that choice is not the one we would like to see.

Meanwhile our bigger job is to act and to educate.  Fiscal and Social conservatives not only have better ideas we have the history of these ideas actually working,  Yes the world is full of low information voters out there who have no clue, our job is to give them a clue, to fight the war in the media, in the papers and in the culture to demonstrate the wisdom of what we do and espouse.

It will not be an easy fight, the culture and the media will fight strongly against us but reality is a powerful point in our favor.

Only then when we are willing to make the public case for conservatism and take the slings and arrows that come from it will we be able to move enough of the public so that the courtiers and the connected will find their way to support us, not because of their love of justice and right but because it will profit them and when they come the toadies will follow.

So if you are in New Hampshire make sure that Scott Brown makes it to 51% and when he does make damn sure he knows the difference between 51% & 49% were conservatives like you.

In Massachusetts make sure Charlie Baker gets to 51% and when he does make damn sure he know the difference between that 51% & 49% were conservatives like you

And finally in 2016 get out and vote for the GOP Nominee, even if it is Chris Christie, Jeb Bush or Mitt Romney and make sure every single hanger on who gets a job in DC because if it has that job because of conservatives like you.

And then get out there and made the case for conservatism to the neighbor, to your friends and to your community by your words and your deeds every single day of the year.

And if you think this is too hard, too ambitious and too much work ask yourself this.

Where would the country be if Rush Limbaugh decided it was too hard to fight for conservatism and just decided to spin discs for the last 30 years?

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Well the Massachusetts & New Hampshire Primaries are over and I have thoughts about the results

1. I think Martha Coakley has one advantage over Steve Grossman when it comes to facing Charlie Baker, because she has lost a race to a republican she is unlikely to take him lightly. Granted it’s unlikely the prospect of a national GOP wave will make any difference in Massachusetts, if you are a Democrat the last thing you want to do is let your guard down. Coakley has been burned once I doubt she’ll let herself get burned again.

2. Mark Fisher drew 25% of the vote. One must assume that this is the Tea Party ceiling in the state, 39,545. Charlie Baker didn’t need these votes to win the primary but he is definitely going to need them in November.

3. If you want to get an idea of how uphill a fight Baker has. with 98% of the vote in Baker drew 114,461. Don Berwick The Third place finisher in the Democrat primary who you likely never heard of drew 113,296. Think of it. Baker’s 74% of the GOP vote only outpolled an unknown democrat by 1,165 votes.

4. Let’s put it another way, it’s been suggested that a lot of conservatives took Democrat ballots to vote against Coakley. If every single one of those Grossman votes go to Baker and all of Berwick’s votes go to Coakley Baker loses by over 30,000 votes unless he draws those Fisher votes. This is what you call a rock and a hard place.

5. The most interesting result of the night in the state was Seth Moulton unseating Rep John Tierney in the 6th district drawing over 49% of the vote to Tierney’s 41% (three minor candidates drew a combined 9.7%

6. Tierney’s wife’s conviction for tax evasion should have doomed him in 2010 but he won re-election by 13 points that year and 1 point in 2012. The lesson? Voters in Massachusetts 6th district would rather elect a known Democrat Crook than any republican, conservative or liberal.

7. I’ve not seen a Democrat with a more attractive resume than Seth Mouton, businessman, Marine with 4 tours in Iraq however as I look at his issue page all I see a liberal who supports Obamacare, wants more gun laws and thinks Climate Change is the #1 issue facing the world. On the plus side he loves his country enough to fight for it and isn’t a crook.

I’m old enough to remember when those two sentences would have been almost a given for a democrat, now it’s extraordinary.

8. If Richard Tisei couldn’t beat John Tierney he has absolutely no prayer against Mouton. On social issues there is practically no difference between them (Moe Lane is dead wrong here) so Mouton’s 4 tours as a Marine in Iraq will be the deciding factor but that’s not as fatal as his but , particularly given that Tisei’s boycott of the convention was an embarrassment to both the party & Baker. While it was overshadowed by the party’s foolishness vis a vis Fisher there are people in the establishment with long memories who haven’t forgiven him.

7. With the house safely in GOP hands no matter what happens in Ma-6 the national party which might have kicked in a few bucks vs Tierney isn’t going to waste a penny in the impossible task of defeating Mouton.

8. In New Hampshire I was sad to see Andrew Hemingway lose the GOP primary for governor. He is a dynamic young man who would have been a great candidate.

9. The single most important number in Scott Brown’s victory yesterday is 49%. If NH had a runoff system like Mississippi Brown would have to face Jim Rubens head to head. That would have been an interesting race

10. Brown’s ability to get almost 50% in a contested GOP primary suggests that NH is at the tipping point. Within a generation or two NH will not be an acceptable destination for conservatives wanting out of Massachusetts & it wouldn’t surprise me to see them start fleeing NH for red states.

11. On the plus side for the GOP Brown’s large campaign chest is going to force Democrats to devote millions to keep NH from giving the GOP any bit of wiggle room if they take back the senate. (That alone should be enough of an argument for conservatives to unite behind Brown. Every dollar spent in NH by the left is a dollar they can’t spend to defend in NC LA or anywhere else.

12. The most hopeful result was Marilinda Garcia’s victory in the nh-2 congressional race. I’ve been following Garcia for a while and she is the real deal. I suspect the left will go all out to stop her even beyond Brown.

The McCullen v Coakley case that removed the three-point lines in Massachusetts is the potential to have some interesting effects on both the national level and the local level.

Locally of course Coakley is Martha Coakley the current AG of Massachusetts now running for governor. Earlier this month Steve Grossman managed to get the endorsement of the Democrat party for the nomination while Coakley is still leading in the polls.

Coakley will likely be able to parley her name on that case to gain further sympathy from hard core pro-abortion activists, while Grossman can argue that Coakley team did a poor job arguing for the law before the court, so poor that she lost unanimously.

There is also the possibility that outgoing governor Deval Patrick might try to rush a new law through with his large majorities, as both Coakley & Grossman are in state government it’s unclear who that would help.

On the Republican side the issue is a godsend for Mark Fisher. Fisher has already gotten the endorsement of Mass right to life and can engage the base by his celebration of the result.

Not so Charlie Baker

“Charlie hopes the current law is upheld,” a Baker spokesperson told BostInno. Though vague in nature, the statement could be taken in a manner that Baker is, in fact, pro choice, or that he’s simply a proponent of laws enacted at the state level. Either way, his show of support for the cause, however broad in his choice of words, a positive direction for bipartisan collaboration in customarily blue Massachusetts.

Now Fisher is going to need a lot of breaks to beat Baker and this certainly isn’t enough to make the difference but it’s important to note that last thing Baker needs is a reminder to activists that he is squishy on life, particularly if we end up with a 3rd party candidate that’s pro-life on the ballot.

Any believing catholic wanting to avoid mortal sin (you know the type that sends you to hell) would be duty bound given the choice between pro-abortion candidates & a pro life one can only vote one way. As for myself as a Catholic no election is worth my soul.

While this case is likely to make things a little more interesting in Massachusetts it’s going to make things a LOT more interesting in New Hampshire.

Scott Brown ran as a pro-choice candidate last time around, I still remember the ads, they made me sick but as there was not a pro-life choice it was possible to morally vote for him.

In the GOP primary in NH that’s a different story, Senator Brown already has a guns issue that could cost him the 2nd Amendment voters, this case can’t help but highlight that he is a pro-abortion republican which will certainly energize pro-life republicans to turn out in a primary against him.

Nationally the ruling might be a wash simply because the case was 9-0 (take a look at the twitter to see leftist heads explode over the unanimous decision, but Ed Morrissey when reading the decision proper noticed what I did:

There was a considerable amount of disagreement on the idea that the law was content-neutral, and this is the crux of the problem for free-speech advocates. Justice Antonin Scalia issued a scalding concurrence in part, with Justices Anthony Kennedy and Clarence Thomas joining, warning that this decision makes proving a violation of content neutrality in speech restrictions all but impossible:

The four conservatives justices sans the chief wrote concurrent opinions bluntly saying this was unconstitutional on its face while the actual decision practically listed the ways Massachusetts could pass a law that the court could support.

That suggests that the decision was written the way it was in order to get the 9-0 result rather than the 5-4 at best result that would have given conservatives the whole 10 yards. It’s not unusual for a Chief to try to get a unanimous court but those who pay attention might read the tea leaves and decide that it’s more important to get the majority in the Senate to keep the president from replacing any of those 4 liberal votes that was against him today.

Either way November certainly won’t be boring.

If you are a regular reader of this blog you know I think Senator Scott Brown NH Senate run is a mistake that has some potentially disastrous consequences for the GOP in NH. I think it would have been better if Senator Brown had choose to run in Massachusetts and I suspect Charlie Baker would have preferred the same., instead.

But with Brown’s candidacya fait accompli it’s time to look at the bright side, particularly for people like me who support other GOP candidates..

First of all lets acknowledge the biggest advantage of the Brown Candidacy the money.

Before Brown’s entry in the race where Shaheen had a huge advantage in both name recognition and cash.

Scott Brown is a money machine that is drawing national money to the NH GOP race,

Because of Senator Brown’s high name recognition and his strategy of totally ignoring his primary opponents practically all of his money and media can be spent attacking Shaheen. Brown’s high media profile combined with the media wanting him to be the candidate guarantees those attacks will get exposure other attacks would not.

Suddenly Jeanne Shaheen has to play defense against a well funded primary opponent attacking her.  It also means Jeanne Shaheen will be spending the vast majority of her money counter attacking Senator Brown to the exclusion of anyone else.

And the media, cheerleading for Shaheen will be doing the same, practically pretending the remainder of the GOP field:  Smith, Rubens & Martin are ignored.

Now in almost any other state such a situation would be the sound of doom for the rest of the GOP field, but in NH it’s a potentially spectacular development.

Imagine that you are Bob Smith or Jim Rubens till September 9th, the entire air war that you would need to launch against Senator Shaheen is going to be fought for you while at the same time Brown takes all the flak allowing you to take no damage in return.

Now if you live in Ohio, or Texas or even Wyoming you might think this is a real problem but New Hampshire is the perfect place to run a small budget ground game.

NH is a small state, its 10 counties consist of only 244 Cities and towns. Only 26 of them have a population over 10,000 and only Manchester has a population over 100,000.  It is also a small state in area, one can drive from on end to the other in just a few hours   A candidate who did three events a day from May through August could literally do an event in every town in the state, give two extra visits to the cities & towns with over 10,000 residents and STILL take one day a week off to unwind.

If you’re, Bob Smith Jim Rubens that’s very doable.

While Brown courts the big money Donors & the GOP establishment Smith & Rubens can concentrate on the base,.  Now that my candidate Karen Testerman has pulled out and endorsed Smith it’s even a bigger deal since Rubens draws from the same pool that Senator Brown does.

It is time for all of us to put aside pride and focus on our greater GOAL, that of fighting for Family, Faith and Freedom.  I will not force our principle-driven primary voters to make a self-defeating choice.  After much prayer and consultation, I will step aside to allow Senator Bob Smith to be the ONLY conservative name on the primary ballot.

Senator Smith has a well-earned reputation of standing firm for our conservative beliefs and values and for fighting Washington to stop their overreach. Bob Smith was TEA Party before it had a name.

While the rest of the MSM doesn’t get it Jazz Shaw does:

Smith was already nearly within the margins for going head to head against Shaheen – down by roughly six – and any significant bump from former Testerman voters could easily put him in the lead.

And if that’s the case Shaheen could pivot but she does’t DARE pivot, because Brown attacks aren’t about to stop and Shaheen’s record of support for the increasingly unpopular Obama becomes more dangerous by the day.  I’ll give Jazz again

… …All of this spells trouble not only for Shaheen, but for anyone perceived as being soft on conservative issues. So is Brown simply destined to steamroll to the nomination with a pile of out of state money, only to lose to Shaheen later? I still wouldn’t bet the farm on it. We may be seeing more of Bob Smith’s name as the summer wears on and we slowly make our way to the state’s very late, Sept. 9th primary.

If Bob Smith wins the GOP primary Jazz Shaw will look like a genius to the MSM only just shy of Nate Silver.

This is the 10th of my series of Sarah Palin clips from CPAC 2014 & commentary upon them:

Day 1: The Crowd
Day 2: The Entrance
Day 3: Dr. Seuss
Day 4: Why Sarah Feels Good
Day 5: Playing Prevent
Day 6: Sinking Ships
Day 7: Flexibility Pens & Putin
Day 8: Anticipation
Day 9: Don’t blow it

Yesterday we talked about how unexpected the win in Fl-13 was, today lets remind folk about 2010.

If you are new to the story you might not remember the days before 2010 when GOP stalwarts told us our only chance was to cooperate with Barack Obama, to refuse to fight back against Barack Obama, to accept the changes that Barack Obama was offering.

The only two people who seemed to be in a fighting mood were Rush Limbaugh & Sarah Palin.

It wasn’t til the Brown win that any of this started to change and as late as January 8th 2010 (the election was the 19th) the Boston Phoenix ran this story which said (emphasis mine)

In less than two weeks, when Massachusetts voters elect Martha Coakley to the US Senate — let’s not pretend that Republican state senator Scott Brown has any chance of pulling off the monumental upset — they will trigger a massive domino effect that has the state’s political class buzzing with anticipation.

Even after Scott Brown won in Massachusetts shocking the entire country the MSM was in denial. As late as October 2010 we were seeing stories like this:

And posts like this from Politico

Top Democratic officials are convinced, and even some Republicans privately concede, that what’s happening is that party loyalists are coming home and other voters are beginning to assess both candidates in individual races.

“The early polls were really a gauge of people’s anger, but more recent polls are a gauge of people’s options,” Delaware Gov. and Democratic Governors Association Chairman Jack Markell told POLITICO.

What’s driving Democratic optimism is improving polling numbers — both in individual races and in generic indicators — ramped-up fundraising and their field efforts.

It wasn’t until the One Nation & Jon Stewart Rally crashed and burned that the MSM tuned their narrative the day before the election:

That’s why these remarks by Sarah Palin’s remarks are so important

Sarah reminds us that you advance by moving forward and being unafraid to fight.

In 2010 the GOP stepped back and let the Tea Party carry them over the finish line, in 2012 the decided that the Tea Party was not needed for victory and lost.

It’s 2014 and the GOP needs to decide if it wants to dance with the Tea Party that gave them the House majority. There is no reason why the GOP & the Tea Party working together should not guarantee huge GOP victories winning seats in the house and capturing the Senate.

If the GOP doesn’t realize this and decides it’s more important to defeat the Tea Party then the Democrats then will foolishly get their wish.

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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Wednesday and yesterday a pair of tip jar hits moved us to $87 toward our goal of $365 to pay the mortgage and the writers.

After two dismal weeks it’s vital to get those 11 $25 tip jar hits necessary to make the weekly goal to even have an outside chance of making the mortgage this month

We’ve done a lot in the last 10 days from CPAC to NLRC. but it can’t be done without you.

 

With 61 more $20 a month subscribers this site will be able to cover its bills for a full year.

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Yesterday was the close of NLRC 2014 in Nashua New Hampshire an event that was filled with Republicans from the Northeast talking and feeling optimistic about election 2014. The event was well-managed both by the hotel & by the NHGOP. The party & staff under chair Jennifer Horn did an excellent job putting it together.

There are many stories from this event and I’ll be posting more video over the next few days but the story that grabbed the majority of the media was Scott Brown’s announcement of the formation of an exploratory committee to run in New Hampshire. The place was just swarming with press over it.

:

Then came the senator’s speech

I thought it was pretty good and was delivered with great feeling hitting several strong GOP points. It certainly impressed this attendee

Before I say another word let me speak this for the record. Scott Brown was a pretty good Senator from Massachusetts.  He was very open about his positions, carried himself well to the voters in general and even when people disagreed with him, particularly on the Tea Party side always gave them time and a respectful.

I suspect the tea party bridges he burned came from bad consultant advice. On a personal level you can’t help but like the man and his wife Gail is not only charming but just plain nice.

I wish he was running in Massachusetts against Ed Markey instead of in NH.  I think he would have won the special election there AND would win a contest in the state now.

New Hampshire,that’s a totally different story

New Hampshire is one of the most informed voter bases in the nation.  They have more state reps per citizen than any other and take their politics seriously.

To a crowd of low information voters Senator Brown’s stirring speech would have been the start of a rallying cry but the problem is, the GOP base in New Hampshire, like the rest of the tea party types, are not made of low information voters.

They remember Scott Brown opinion on the assault weapons ban and were angry enough to show up in freezing cold 300 strong last year to protest it. They remember the 2012 campaign where in ads he described himself as a “different kind of republican” as if there is something wrong with being one. They remember the ads portraying him as pro-choice that really bothers people like me.  As NH gets blanketed by Massachusetts media they couldn’t avoid those ads if they tried.

They also remember the day after his hand-picked chair for the GOP chair squeaked though on the second ballot to get the top GOP job in the state on the back the belief it would mean Brown would be running in the special election to replace John Kerry, he announced he would not be running (a huge shame BTW as Kristen Hughes has turned out to be an excellent party chair who would have carried Brown over the finish line).

In short they remember him running from the tea party after being elected, running away from the GOP during his last campaign and then running from the fight.

Now comes 2014 and it’s looking like 2010 all over again and what happens?

Brown doesn’t run in Massachusetts where he could easily contrast himself with Ed (voting present) Markey on Obamacare AND on a willingness to stand up and be counted.

He crosses the border back to NH because Jeanne Shaheen is considered vulnerable and is now giving speeches about republican unity. Even Maureen Dowd sees this:

It’s not that Democrats are particularly scared that the 54-year-old former Massachusetts senator is going to get elected as a New Hampshire senator — although it’s conceivable that a charming, carpetbagging, middling politician could jump across the border and unseat Jeanne Shaheen.

FYi Dowd’s Carpetbagging charge is bogus, Brown was Born in NH he’s had connections to the state for years and frankly if NH disqualified people who escaped from Massachusetts from the state you’d disenfranchise half the electorate, but she’s spot on two paragraphs later

This is what’s really freaking out Democrats: They know that Brown, after making some real money working for Fox News since his loss to Elizabeth Warren two years ago, wouldn’t even be getting into the race if the political environment weren’t so toxic for Democrats.

That’s really the issue,  Browns decision to run appears to people in NH as something imposed from on high and that brings up another sore spot in the state that can best be illustrated by what or rather who I didn’t see at NLRC 2014.

Granite Grok.

Granite Grok is the premiere conservative group blog in the state. There is nobody that has advanced conservative position and candidates with more strength. Furthermore they are generally everywhere if a political event is taking place Granite Grok is there to cover it and stream it live.

Grok didn’t show up. Their reaction to the Scott Brown run was the title of their post:

Meh

Grok’s absence symbolizes the split between the Tea Party wing of the NH GOP & the Establishment wing of the GOP.  It’s reaching the point of open war. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that a conservative 3rd party will arise in the state after the November election unless this is taken care of.

This has to be addressed NOW. Scott Brown & the NH GOP’s problem is a lot like Mitch McConnell at CPAC he needs to address the elephant in the room which are his positions on life and guns because as of today those NH Republicans will not turn up and vote for Senator Brown in a general election.

And if they don’t forget a senate seat in Washington, if they stay home the NHGOP can kiss the prospect of taking back the state house and senate goodbye in a year where Democrats in the state are running scared.

Nominating Brown takes the gun issue off the table that the GOP should be able to beat the Democrats over the head with and will put Kelly Ayotte who voted on the right side of the bill on the spot two years before her re-election campaign.

I’ve said this before and I will again, my candidate is Karen Testerman (her site is here) but if Brown is nominated the GOP had better decide to mend fences fast, or it will cost them more than they bargained for.

Of course the best solution is just voting for Karen, she can hit Shaheen on the 2nd Amendment like this:

when Senator Brown can not.

Update:  added a link & rearranged an ambiguous sentence.

Update 2: Jazz Shaw interviewed Karen Testerman yesterday:

Since joining the primary hunt last fall, Testerman has been a target of liberals in the Granite state. A spokesperson for the state Democrat party responded to her initial announcement by describing her as a far-right extremist and a rubber stamp for the Tea Party.

Jazz did some great work in NH this weekend.
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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Sunday a new week and I hate to start it on a down note but we’ve now had three straight weeks without making our goal.

Without 15 $25 tip jar hits we will have no prospect of making mortgage this month.

I’m going to bluntly say I need you to hit this tip jar if you if this experiment is going to succeed.

Your call.

 

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Today I’m at the North east Republican Leadership Conference at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Nashua NH

nhgop photos fri 1 001

NH is a very small state and as you might guess the scale of this conference is dwarfed by CPAC but there is plenty happening here

The representatives of the Draft Ben Carson Campaign are here.

Representatives of the Bob Smith Campaign were here

As is Senator Smith himself

the Young Americans for Freedom Turned up

The College Republicans of NH

And NH GOP Chair who gave me an interview

After her opening Remarks

but while there are many stories and people here including several Presidential Contenders for 2016 who are here the big story is the imminent announcement by Scott Brown of the formation of an exploratory committee to run for Senate.

I remarked on this:

and frankly fret on what his 2nd Amendment & abortion views will do for NH Turnout on the State Rep and Senate level.

But while I found plenty of people who share those worries the national party seems simply delighted by this prospect.

I will say what I said before, I’m supporting Karen Testerman in the primary but if Scott Brown wins the nomination I will happily support him over the democrat choice and would urge others to do so as I did for Mitt Romney.

I don’t have high hopes on that score.

Update: Fixed ambiguous sentence in 2nd to last paragraph

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Olimometer 2.52

Friday is here and for the 3rd week in a row a full payweek is not.

We remain at $120 dollars toward this week’s goal of $365 to keep the bills paid. That’s $245 short.

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I remember the first Scott Brown campaign.

The crowds were incredible, the excitement was contagious, people in Massachusetts really believed it was a sign that the direction that had led us to ruin for decades might actually be ending.

And the Grass Roots that had been silent for years, the people who were sick of political correctness, of government intrusion, of high taxes and who say Mr. Brown as the best and last chance to stop Obamacare disaster that they (unlike the MSM) clearly saw before them, in its tracks emerged from the shadows and worked, oh HOW they worked. The number of man hours, the phone calls, the stand out were incredible.

They gave the one item that is more valuable than money for a campaign, The one thing you can never make more of…TIME!

After the victory he was hailed at CPAC he was celebrated, local bars were naming drinks after him and fear gripped the left in Massachusetts to the point where millions were spent to defend seats in congress in 2010 simply to hold the line and while they managed to do this, it cost them in many close races nationwide and lead to the GOP house majority that remains to this day.

Brown was a pragmatic senator on many issues and the media cheered him on celebrating him and suggesting that his only chance for re-election was to move left, unfortunately Brown agreed, time and time again he sided with Democrats and ran from the Tea Party that worked so hard to elect him.

When the Democrats choose the extreme ultra left candidate Elizabeth “You didn’t build that” Warren as their candidate national Democrats were orgasmic, gone was their complements of Scott Brown & the fawning media coverage. Instead they elevated Warren and dumped millions into sending Senator Brown home.

Alas with the left solidly against him, Brown still veered left and like Mitt Romney he kept his distance from the Tea Party and the base even as he needed ever single vote to keep his seat.

It didn’t save Mitt & it didn’t save Brown.

2014 is just a few days away and with Obamacare crashing and burning the best chance they have to save the senate for Barack Obama is to exacerbate the conflicts between the Tea Party & the Establishment GOP.

And lo and behold suddenly MSNBC and Morning Joe are all abuzz about Senator Brown selling his house in Massachusetts and moving to NH to run for the Senate Seat currently occupied by Jeanne Shaheen.

Already the backlash over Brown’s positions has begun, The Nashua protests will just be the beginning and the media will do their best to fan the flames in order to rip the partnership that made the GOP a majority party in congress asunder and rest assured it will only get worse as time goes on.

Maybe Senator Brown thinks he’s the best chance to beat Senator Shaheen, after all the contrast between the 60th vote for & the 41st vote against Obamacare is an appealing political juxtaposition but that will be small comfort if it rips the GOP apart in the one state in New England where they still have an organization that can complete on the state and national level.

In a piece at Fox Senator Brown wrote this:

Democrats would love for nothing more than for us to spend precious time and resources fighting amongst ourselves on unrelated issues. Indeed, this remains their best hope for avoiding a total wipeout at the ballot box next year.

If we aren’t able to come together and stand united around our core principles, the future of both our country and our political party is bleak.

That’s true, but I can’t think of anything that is more likely to cause that to happen in New Hampshire than Senator Brown running in the state for Senate.  The left did their best to use Senator Brown once before against the party and his own interests and it ended in defeat and division in the Massachusetts GOP just as it had a chance to begin their climb out of an impossible hole.  If he is truly concerned with party unity, if he wants to be sure the GOP has a united message so they win local races in the state as well as that vulnerable senate seat, the best thing he can do is stay out of the primary and endorse whoever wins to the hilt.

It will be quite Ironic if three years after Scott Brown was the spark that torched their citadel in 2010 he becomes the Molotov Cocktail to burn down the GOP chances to win the Senate and keep a hold in NH.

Update: The subject of the grass roots and marketing came up on this week’s show a key except:

Whose going to man the offices, who’s going to bang on the doors, make phone calls do those things and volunteer in waves, and when that first wave of volunteer gets tired you got to have a 2nd wave & a third wave and the first wave is rejuvenated and those people do tend to be on the ah not on the extremes but the more dedicated people, then perhaps from a republican point of view more conservative.

Paid consultants are all about their pay, it’s the volunteers that are willing to work without pay that make the difference and they come from the base.

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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Monday the 6th day of Christmas, After a slow Sunday the only movement toward a full paycheck this week was a pair of Subscriptions payments which have us $22 of the way toward our $340 goal

Given this December (a month that blogs normally go to die in off years) has been not only our best month this year and still has an outside chance of becoming our best month EVAH in terms of traffic I certainly have no business complaining about one slow Sunday.

But like a closer in baseball what you did last week or yesterday doesn’t matter

So good months and good weeks aside the paycheck still need to be made which means I need 16 tip jar hitters kicking in $20 before the close of business on Saturday to make week 53 of 2013 & week 1 of 2014 a success.

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El Cid:  Sire, you risk having no Spain at all

El Cid 1961

Mr. Spock: I fail to see why you do not understand us. You yourself have stated the need for unity of authority on this planet. We agree.

Bella Oxmyx: Yeah, but I got to be the unity.

Star Trek A Piece of the Action 1968

Yesterday I headed up to Nashua NH to cover the scheduled 2nd Amendment protest against the Scott Brown candidacy (let’s not pretend it was just a 2nd Amendment meeting). On my way I decided to hit the only Chick-Fil-A in the state (one of two in NE) for a quick bite:

(A & E might want to take notes there)

I got to Nashua center around 4 PM and noticed right away Parking was going to be an issue. There was a suited gentleman digging out spots behind the building. I spoke to a police sergeant who told me my best was to use a municipal garage about 200 yards and 4 blocks away.

As I headed back to my car to move it I ran into a person from WMUR channel 9 who had pulled aside next to me. He told me the 2nd Amendment protesters would be across the street and a 2nd group of democrats protesting Brown would be in the parking lot at the side.

He commented that the 2nd Amendment folks weren’t able to get a permit but were coming anyway, we both agreed we had no idea where anyone was going to park.

10 Min later after parking down the road I started the walk over to the area, passing by the Jeanne Shaheen office on the way

brown stills 002

The Hunt Building was a couple of blocks farther up

brown stills 004

I noticed an old barber shop across the street unfortunately there was an issue with the camera and the recording I made didn’t take but the Barber took notice, he agreed to an interview but first I wanted to get to the area where the protest would be.

At 4:30 (an hour before it was scheduled) there were about a half-dozen protesters there and the sun was already down and I interviewed the Patriot Pastor dressed in colonial garb and carrying a musket.

I then headed back to the Barber shop and interviewed the barber who gave me his take on 50 years at that location:

After the interview I headed back to the protest area the sidewalks were already icy and I nearly fell on the way, by then there were about 8 or 9 folks.

brown stills 005

I then talked to one of the Granite Grok crowd (one of three who would eventually arrive.

It seemed to me the odds were against this protest, there was no place to stand, the green had several issues of snow made hard by several cold days, there was no place to park and it being December 19th the chances of building a noticeable crowd seemed slim but people kept coming…

and they were bringing some very interesting homemade signs

brown stills 006

The Crowd kept growing and pretty soon there were was a mass of humanity that ended up both at the Monument and across the street at the corner of Hunt building

And it kept growing, the signs got more and more creative:

brown stills 013

And they had to get creative to make more space. My hand count of the crowd kept rising

The crowd hit 100 then 150, soon the crowd was over 200 and on two corners and the worry I mentioned in the last video must have hit the Brown people because shortly a group of well dressed college age kids suddenly showed up at the opposite corner where some of the anti-brown folks had already gathered carrying pre-printed “Run Scott Run” signs.

I crossed the street and asked if anyone would be interviewed. At first they declined (shades of Mitt Romney in Concord in 2011) but Jake Wagner of the College Republicans, who made it a point to say he was not with the others, talked to me

I then interviewed one of the anti-brown protesters who they gathered around

He was much less surprised than me and invoked Dick Swett who was promptly voted out of office in NH after a vote against the 2nd Amendment.

brown stills 015

Meanwhile people were trickling into the front door. There was a fair amount of police deployed but the said everyone was behaving well, their main concerning was keeping the massive crowd on the side-walk and making sure nobody got killed crossing the street at that every busy intersection with the four-way light.

I crossed back over and discovered that the half a dozen democrat protestors had joined the 2nd amendment crowd (I actually recognized some of the signs I had seen them during the Warren campaign)

I interviewed one of them

My hand count was already up to 228 (not counting the leftists) and as some of the folks on the left departed they left their signs for others

brown stills 008

I headed back to the corner to cross and get a shot of the Run Scott Run group but by then the 8-10 of them had gone inside, but one of the announced GOP candidates Author Andy Martin had a sign promoting himself

brown stills 017

He counted 75 people max inside at that point where he and Dennis who I interviewed earlier both noticed something I had not about a difference between the sign for the Brown event:

brown stills 016

and those Run Scott Run signs

brown stills 014
Namely something that was missing…

Nobody had apparently taken ownership of the Brown signs. I think it would be interesting to see who paid for those signs and took ownership?

Dennis noted that the people holding the signs were VERY sensitive about his suggestion that they had been paid, but didn’t deny it.  That’s an interesting question too. (Later that night I spoke to an active GOP activist who was not at either protest who said they were giving away the tickets to the Brown event to try to fill the hall.

Back across the street I ran into Skip from Granite Grok who was covering the speakers, we interviewed each other.

I also noticed a familiar face from the GOP presidential debates, one of the Ron Paul folks who opposed Brown over the Nat defense authorization act.

But the main focus remained the 2nd Amendment as evidenced by the speakers.  My count had reached 300 which was simply astounding.

By 7:30 I had been outside for 3 hours I ducked inside a pizza place two blocks down to import some videos and get a bite, as I came out people were starting to leave the Brown event and one gentleman Craig Powers bearing a book agreed to talk.

Brown’s speech was about common ground. Craig believes Brown is necessary due to changing demographics but I’m thinking the better move is to advance conservatism and convince people  rather than get a less conservative candidate and run away from your party.

Back across the street “GOP Senate Candidate Karen Testerman who had attended the Brown event was now with the 2nd Amendment people, one of only two or three people who attended both.

Full disclosure, if I had a NH vote Karen would be my candidate.

Why the GOP establishment would not want to support a minority woman whose strongly conservative is beyond me.

As everyone was leaving I noticed Marilinda Garcia leaving the Brown event, despite the late hour and her not being dressed for the cold she stopped to speak to me. As a candidate for Congress she was properly diplomatic about the Senate Race.

She pooh poohed the sexist attacks on her but pointed out those attacks is why it’s hard to get women to run for the GOP. My opinion is it’s the lack of consequence or denunciation of those attacks by the MSM when they are targeted at GOP women is the real culprit.

Why she is not promoted more by the GOP nationally more makes not sense to me either.

By 8:15 things were all over and I began the walk back to the car

What I took away from all of this:

1. If you are drawing 300 people standing out in the cold on Dec 19th to protest Scott Brown how many are going to show up when the weather is warmer and they don’t have to stomp down the snow to make room for people to stand.

2. The Scott Brown plan is the Mitt Romney plan, make sure enough conservative candidates are in the race to win a primary with 30% of the vote.

3. If Brown is the nominee the BEST CASE if the NH GOP is this:

There will be a 3rd party 2nd amendment candidate and every single GOP candidate running for state office will be asked that 2nd Amendment question concerning Brown putting them in an impossible position with the people they will need to win.

The worst case scenario:

There will be a permanent 3rd party (NH Conservative republicans) that will draw the activists, the libertarians etc which will either replace or permanently replace the GOP in the state.

And I believe when (I don’t think it’s an if anymore) this happens that party will spread across the country and tear the GOP apart state by state.

The most amazing thing, all of this is completely avoidable but I’m rapidly coming to the conclusion that the GOP would rather be a minority party of the “right” people than win a majority with the uncouth tea party.

I can’t think of anything more foolish for a political party.

The full photo gallery follows my pitch

Update: the Politico report cuts the Anti-Brown crowd by almost 2/3 but maybe they didn’t keep an eye out the outside crowd

Simkin was among the people, most clad in orange hunting gear and a few carrying guns, who stood in a dark and snowy park to tell the ex-Massachusetts senator that they don’t want him to run for Senate. They singled out his support for a federal assault weapons ban, his opposition to a national conceal-and-carry law and the endorsement he received from gun-control proponent New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg last year.

Inside the building, Brown continued to stoke speculation about his intentions, which have morphed in a matter of weeks from being widely viewed as attention-grabbing antics to he’s-actually-likely-to-do-this serious. Brown made no news in the speech, which was closed to the press.

But he impressed a crowd of 90 donors as he talked about his move to New Hampshire and touted the importance of retail campaigning, attendees said afterward.

The left has to be dancing over this.

Update 2:  Some Statements from Senator Brown:

I am looking forward to being close to my mom as she gets older and needs assistance from my sister and me. I am also looking forward to being closer to my immediate and extended family.

Once we get settled, we will do what many other people have done upon moving into New Hampshire. We will register to vote, get new licenses and enjoy the fact that there is no income or sales tax in New Hampshire.

That frankly is no different most of the people who leave Massachusetts.  the Roll Call has more
Still, the former Bay State senator is headlining the New Hampshire GOP’s holiday fundraiser Thursday evening. It’s just the latest in a series of political appearances for Brown in recent months, as national Republicans actively recruit him to challenge Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

Now it’s certainly going to be Brown personal advantage to keep the National GOP wanting more, it will allow him to fund raise and get his feel in the state but the longer this goes on the more likely he will starve off the funds of other potential GOP candidates.

That’s the Catch 22  Brown’s best chance in a GOP primary is a crowded field but the longer he delay’s announcing the more likely he will face only a single opponent that the anti-brown forces can rally against, frankly the best chance for the GOP to win this seat is for Senator Brown to announce that he is not running and do while there is still time for the existing candidates to to get things moving.

Meanwhile the National GOP meddling will have the net effect of longterm disaster for the party in the state.

Swell.

Update 3:  Nashua Patch’s coverage

Also on hand was Gary Lambert, a Republican candidate for Congress, who said he’s “a big tent kind of guy,” and while he would be joining the Brown event as a supporter, he first wanted to stand outside with his fellow gun rights activists.

The smartest thing Senator Brown could have done was follow suit.

Update 4: Hotair and Jazz Shaw is on it but doesn’t see the danger.

Update 5:  A Delayed Instalanche 4 to go to catch Johnson

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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Friday and we have only managed $133 of the $340 goal for the week with two days to go in my payweek.

8 tip jar hits at $25 will make a full paycheck.  13 are needed to get me back on the pace to pay for both the Magnificent Seven and the mortgage.

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The good folks who support the 2nd Amendment in NH have a protest scheduled at the same time as Scott Brown’s “Holiday Party” (which “Holiday”, Arbor day?) at 5:30 at the HUNT MEMORIAL BUILDING 6 Main Street, Nashua, NH .  This event is going to be a call to oppose any candidate of any party who is anti second Amendment.

There is an impressive line up sponsoring this event according to Granite Grok including:

 The New Hampshire Firearms Coalition, Gun Owners of NH, Second Amendment Sisters, Republican Liberty Caucus, Several State Legislators and several of NH’s leading Sporting Clubs

But as it’s Christmas Time, the season for giving they decided it was proper to give a gift and they have a special one for one lucky attendee an AR-15!

Here is how you win (again via Granite Grok)

1) COME TO THIS EVENT!
2)WEAR BLAZE ORANGE
3) FILL OUT AN ENTRY FORM
4) BE PRESENT TO WIN!

and, MOST IMPORTANTLY…winner MUST be eligible to receive a NON-MASSACHUSETTS COMPLIANT AR-15 RIFLE. That’s right, this firearm CANNOT BE SOLD OR TRANSFERRED to a RESIDENT of Massachusetts or ANY OTHER state that restricts the size of magazines or the features on a firearm such as flash suppressors and collapsible stocks. We only raffle off guns that have the features Massachusetts based politicians like Scott Brown would prohibit if given the opportunity. The firearm will be transferred by Riley’s in FULL COMPLIANCE with (THIS) state’s and federal laws.

I guess I won’t be winning a Christmas gift for my Godson in Massachusetts but I can still cover the story.

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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Thursday and the good news the ball has moved.

The bad news it only moved $4.

Don’t get me wrong every little bit helps but as of today we’re still $219 shy of this week’s goal and a full $340 short to keep pace this month’s goal.

9 $25 Tip jar hits will solve the 1st problem, 14 will solve the second but any hit will move us closer to both goals. But will we get them?

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The Breaking of the 60 subscriber barrier is a great leap but not as great as the ability to know the Mortgage & Magnificent Seven are going to be pain in full on the 1st instead of on the 30th.

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You’ve got to be kidding me.

DaTechGuy January 31st 2013

The time to take over the GOP (state by state) or set up a real third party (let’s call it the conservative party, like NY state), is NOW, after a historic election that demonstrated the ineptness of the “Wizards of Smart”.

Mike Rogers November 9th 2012

There are a lot of reasons why NH republicans might oppose a run by Scott Brown for the Senate in NH:  The running away from the base in the Elizabeth Warren race, the pro-choice ads, and as Granite Grok points out New Hampshire is a huge 2nd Amendment State:

Given that he has had his vetting as Gun Control Advocate by none other than Mayor and Nanny of NYC Bloomberg (whose Mayors Against Illegal Guns’s “No More Names” tour listed Boston Marathon Bomber Tamerlan Tsarnaev as a”gun victim” when it stopped in Concord, NH) who gave liberally (snicker) to his failed campaign against Elizabeth Warren, it is clear that Scott Brown’s stance that he’d be fine in supporting another Federal “assault weapon” ban. Thus, those of us that believe that the Republican US Senate Nominee should, at the least:

fully support the Party Platform (“We believe that our founding fathers placed the 2nd Amendment in a position of prominence with intent; that law-abiding citizens of the United States of America have a right to protect and defend their lives, their families and their property without government infringement.”)
whole heartedly support the Letter AND the Spirit of the US Constitution (“Second Amendment: A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.”)
show a full respect for the NH Constitution (“Article 2-a: All persons have the right to keep and bear arms in defense of themselves, their families, their property and the state.”)

As it is clear that Mr. Brown lacks quite a bit in these regards, we will be letting him AND the NH GOP Leadership know of our ire by staging this rally.

All of these reasons to oppose a Brown candidacy are valid, but if you want to understand why New Hampshire Republican should tell Senator Brown not to run for the Senate in New Hampshire all you have to do is go back to January 31st of this year.

There was a big fight in the Massachusetts GOP for party chair between two strong candidates.  Rick Green a businessman was supported by the Tea Party / activist wing of the party vs Kirsten Hughes a Chelsea city counselor who worked on the Scott Brown campaign against Elizabeth Warren as deputy finance director.

I covered both candidates during a forum on the 22nd of January and even at that time it was understood this was going to be a very close race.

Hanging over the race was the pending special election to fill the senate seat made empty by John Kerry nomination as Secretary of State.  Senator Brown had not yet announced and the party very much wanted him to run.

Hughes was Scott Brown’s candidate:

With Bob’s departure, I am writing to you today to endorse Kirsten Hughes for Chair of the Massachusetts Republican Party.

It was widely believed among the voters in the room that Hughes election would be an incentive for Brown to enter that race and her connection to the Brown campaign and fundraising was one of her selling points.  The day of the vote the Herald reported on his involvement in the race.  The timing was interesting:

If I was a pessimist, which I’m not, I would think that this story was dropped today by Brown in order to scare the last few undecideds into siding with him after badgering State Committee members with personal plea phone calls for weeks. (Rumor has it Green is up by two.)

On January 31st the vote took place, this is what happened:

In fact is was even weirder than first reported but eventually there was a second ballot and Kirsten Hughes won, however it took the shouts from the crowd for the party to announce the actual vote count.  (41-39).  Activists reacted like this:

and this:

But in the end the election was over and many of the party leaders who voted for Ms. Hughes at least had the comfort in knowing that they would have a state chair friendly to the Brown Campaign and be best able to integrate the efforts of the part to get back that senate seat.

After all a Brown win in the special election would mean he’d be running for re-election in an off year as an incumbent in 2014 giving the party their best chance to grow the vote for state legislature & Senate candidates  all the way down the ticket.

That hope lasted almost 12 hours:

At lunchtime today, I spoke to Senator Brown by telephone.  His news was as surprising to me as I’m sure it was to you.  Certainly, we can all understand this was a highly personal decision for Senator Brown and his family.  Yet, it’s certainly a disappointment for many in our party.

So what the reaction of Scott Brown at a time when his choice for GOP chair has just won by the thinnest of margins?  What was his move when the party needed someone to rally behind? What was his decision when that new chairperson that he explicitly supported most needed a positive story to change the subject from the debacle of the 31st?  What was the decision when all those party voters who cast their vote counting on him to be there to support the party?

He took his ball and went home.

The end result?   Ed Markey, was able to win a lifetime senate seat against a weak candidate while drawing only 60% of the vote Martha Coakley did in 2010.

Even with Senator Brown’s problems with the base he could have drawn those numbers with one hand tied behind his back.

Now less than a year later, he is heading North to NH where the GOP held the state just one election ago to  jump the line ahead of GOP candidates in the state ready and able to run?

I can think of nothing more likely to exacerbate the existing divides in the NH GOP than this.

It will amplify the mistake Speaker Boehner made with the base.

The divide it creates will cost the party seats in both the state senate and house.

It will put Kelly Ayotte in an impossible position where anything she says and does will anger someone whose vote she will need in 2016.

Now it’s axiomatic, for all his faults Brown would be far superior to Jeanne Shaheen and if nominated by the NH GOP I would encourage every voter to support him rather than reward the 60th vote for Obamacare with another six years but I can’t think of a more selfish or self centered move by the Senator nor anything more likely to cause a 3rd party movement in the state that will spread nationally.
I like Senator Brown, he’s a nice guy with a great family and the GOP nationwide should be grateful for the boost he gave to the party.  It’s fair to say that Tea Party election in Massachusetts in 2010 is the reason why the GOP hold the house today, As a Senator he always had time for people from the state even those who disagreed with him and frankly it’s not all that unusual for a person in Massachusetts to say “enough” and move to New Hampshire, but it’s one thing for the party to run a moderate republican in a state where the GOP not even healthy enough to be on life support, it’s quite another to do so in a state where conservatism is still strong.

I implore Senator Brown to re-consider his run in NH for the sake of the state party and the national one.

A Postscript:  One thing I should make clear, I don’t blame Ms. Hughes for either the election stuff nor the Brown move.  She started in an impossible position trying to clean up a mess that was given to her.  I’ve never heard her once complain about the bad hand she was dealt, instead she works hard all over the state and gets little media credit for her efforts:

It’s interesting to note her aide said “you only have five minutes” but she turned to him saying “he only needs three for his interviews”. A party chair who is familiar with the habits of the people covering her knows what she is doing. I opposed her election but she has been proving herself a very capable and impressive party chair.

I would think that would be a story but highlighting a young, smart attractive, hard working young woman leading a state GOP doesn’t fit the media whole “war on women” meme does it?

Update:  No matter who is the GOP nominee this ad is going to be a problem for Jeanne Shaheen

and a lot of other Democrats who were the 60th vote for Obamacare.

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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Wednesday and we’re raised $117 toward our $340 weekly goal

As of today we’re also $344 shy of the pace needed make the monthly goal

9 $25 Tip jar hits will solve the 1st problem, 14 will solve the second but any hit will move us closer to both goals.  That’s one less that yesterday but until time runs out I don’t mind if the ball moves slow as long as it continues to move in the right direction

Help keep us moving by hitting DaTipJar below.

We are only 59 1/4 new subscribers at $20 a month to cover both the Mortgage and the Magnificent Seven without a daily shake of DaTipJar all year.

The Breaking of the 60 subscriber barrier is a great leap but not as great as the ability to know the Mortgage & Magnificent Seven are going to be pain in full on the 1st instead of on the 30th.

Give yourself a Christmas present that will inform and entertain you 365 days a year in 2014. Subscribe below.




Today, former U.S. Senator Scott Brown endorsed Dr. Michael Stopa, Ph.D., in the fifth congressional district election.  The special election is to fill the seat vacated by Ed Markey.  The Stopa campaign issued a press release:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: 9:00 am, October 8, 2013
Natick, Massachusetts
Former U.S. Senator Scott Brown has endorsed Dr. Michael  Stopa in the Fifth Congressional District.  As Sen. Brown said in a recorded phone call to supporters,
“We need an honest, hardworking, articulate Republican to represent the people of Massachusetts in Washington.
As your Senator, I fought for jobs and prosperity in Massachusetts and I believe Mike will do the same for the Fifth Congressional District.”
The Stopa campaign thanks the former Senator for his endorsement.  Dr. Stopa is a professor of nanophysics at Harvard. He lives in Holliston with his wife and four children.
The primary election is October 15th, and the general election is December 10th.

Mike Stopa has also been endorsed by Niall Ferguson, Rep. Keiko Orrall, and Rep. Betty Poirier.  Today, the Daily Caller published an article about Dr. Stopa’s critiques of global warming hysteria.  (Article here.)

Captain Sulu: All right, now we’ve given them something else to shoot at

Star Trek VI The Undiscovered Country 1991

When I first saw this story I had to laugh:

Former U.S. Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts is traveling to Iowa on Sunday to check out the big boar and the super bull at the Iowa State Fair – and to size up whether Iowans might take a liking to him.

“I’m going to be coming out more often to try to determine whether there’s an interest in my brand of leadership and Republicanism,” Brown told The Des Moines Register in a telephone interview this afternoon.

Connections through his wife to Iowa not withstanding let me point out that Scott Brown has as much of a chance of being the GOP nominee in 2016 as I have…

…which is why if I was Rand Paul, Ted Cruz or Rick Santorum I would do all I can to encourage speculation of such a run, his entry into the race and my contributors to kick into any exploratory committee for president for the man.

 

Let me point you to this exchange from Friday’s Morning Joe on MSNBC

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Scarborough: I have to say, ed, though, if i’m Chris Christie, I’m thrilled that Ted Cruz and Marcr Rubio–

Ed Rendell: absolutely.

Scarborough and Rand Paul, and Rick Santorum are all going out to Iowa, all — you know what, they’re going to be a thousand people thinking I’m going to win this from the right and they’re going to chop each other up and then have a guy with a 72% approval rating in new jersey going out there and you get 25, 30% of the vote, you win.

Ed Rendell:I always believed the — a moderate could win the republican primaries by being the only moderate in the field.

 

Chris Christie is staking out a position to the left of Paul, Cruz & Santorum and the cunning plan is to make sure the more conservative vote is divided enough for him to cruise over the finish line with 25-30% of the vote.

If Scott Brown is in the mix the equation changes.

Suddenly you have a split in the more liberal wing of the GOP, suddenly in states where there are open primaries democrats trying to push the GOP to the left have two choices rather than one.

This is one of the oldest tricks in the book, divide your opponents vote. All you need is a person with a healthy enough ego to believe they have a better shot of winning then they actually do and just enough money from already maxed out donors to keep them in the game for as many primaries as you need them for. And given this story from the Herald…

Former U.S. Sen. Scott Brown told the Herald he is exploring a possible 2016 presidential bid today as he hit a well-worn stomping ground for Oval Office hopefuls – the Iowa State Fair.

“I want to get an indication of whether there’s even an interest, in Massachusetts and throughout the country, if there’s room for a bi-partisan problem solver,” said Brown, who has been meeting with top republicans nationally and last week hosted a Fenway event for Republican National Committee members. Brown indicated he isn’t close to deciding whether he will run. “It’s 2013 I think it’s premature, but I am curious. There’s a lot of good name recognition in the Dakotas and here – that’s pretty good.”

…the healthy ego ready to be persuaded of unrealistic expectation part isn’t going to be an issue.

Big disclaimer. I’ve met and interviewed Scott Brown, I’ve met his wife and his daughters and enthusiastically supported both of his runs for US Senate in Massachusetts and believe he would be infinitely better than either of our current US Senators from Massachusetts not to mention infinitely better in the White House than our current president. Just like Ed Morrissey says

One final thought, I’m Really interested to see what Morning Joe has to say about this story. The crew has always liked Scott Brown. If they hit the idea of this run, I think that will telegraph something that a lot of conservatives have been thinking.

 

Update:  Added ST 6 quote and moved the Chris Christie Paragraph to after the Morning Joe quote where it was meant to be.

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Olimometer 2.52

If you told me that I would be leading my Monday Morning Post with a Scott Brown for President post 48 hours ago I wouldn’t have believed you.

But if you told me a year ago I’d be trying to pay my mortgage every month via tip jar hits every week I wouldn’t have bought that either.

I’m only 1-3 for making my full $305 paycheck this August. but hopefully my former home town senator will help push me over the line.

.

Other seed fell on rocky ground where it had little soil. It sprang up at once because the soil was not deep. And when the sun rose, it was scorched and it withered for lack of roots.

Mark 4:5-6

Today is election day and Gabriel Gomez faces an uphill battle to win what should be a well deserved victory against career pol Ed Markey.

Unlike the Scott Brown race there has been no democrat panic at the very end and not even an outlier to suggest that Gomez might make the same and no rush of national bucks to save the day (although anything is possible)

Yesterday at a Tea Party event I saw the leader who is both a tea party member and active in the local GOP committee (if only the GOP had someone like this as chairman) who I’ve seen at standouts and events for Gomez talk about her conversation with him this weekend extolling his virtues and I took off my “blogger” hat to make one final pitch to the tea party faithful assembled quoting from this piece that even if we have objections on some issues that it is vital that we get out and vote Gomez and encourage others to do so.

That such a pitch has to be made at a tea party event shows the difference between 2010 & 2013.

In 2010 nobody outside of Massachusetts gave Scott Brown a chance to win, when the GOP was giving only “pro-forma” support the Tea Party was active, working hard for Brown. It was the grass roots, the bloggers who led.

Brown campaign declared himself “Nobody’s man but your own” he ran on personality, and the closest thing he did to distancing himself from the tea party was declining to have Sarah Palin come to campaign for him. It was only when the National GOP saw that the Tea party and the grassroots were ready to drag him over the finish line did they jump in.

Brown’s victory, inspired activists nationwide and made the 2010’s Big Red Wave Possible giving the GOP the majority but also sent a wave of tea party members who voted not in deference to the GOP establishment but based on the support of the people.

While national republicans  appreciated their chairmanships they didn’t like having to bow to the people who made them possible.

In the next cycle the establishment supported non-tea party people in primaries, for congress and for president, Scott Brown distanced himself and the CPAC conservatives who once welcomed him as a hero noticed. In return while declaring they would vote for him, they would not work for him and without that grass root support both Mitt Romney and Scott Brown lost re-election (I suspect this had a lot to do with his decision not to run for this Senate seat).

Flash forward to 2013 a contested GOP primary for the seat Kerry once held. A conservative Tea Party candidate Mike Sullivan is winning straw poll after straw poll over Gomez and the dynamic Rep Dan Winslow.  The National Party supports Gomez who pitches himself as a “new kind of Republican” and gives him a huge money advantage and when election day comes Gomez has won over 50% of the vote  and the right to face Democrat Ed Markey.

And that’s where the miscalculation came in.

To the national party Gabriel Gomez was a dream candidate, Navy Seal, Vet, successful businessman and LATINO!

But to the grass roots locally and nationally didn’t care Gomez’s race, they looked at his positions. Pro Manchin/Toomey, Pro Gang of Eight, Pro Global Warming declaring himself “A New Kind of Republican” as if there is something wrong with being a member of the GOP.

I don’t blame Gomez. He has never to my knowledge attacked the tea party and has been very forthright about his positions not even bending before a conservative Fox News Sunday audience.  That’s more honorable than one who says one thing during a campaign to get money & votes and then flips. (hi Senator Rubio, how ya doin?)

Nationally the Grassroots who felt themselves burned with Scott Brown and Mitt Romney kept their pocketbooks closed. You saw no stream of activists rushing to Massachusetts to ring doorbells and sell Gabriel Gomez to the people of the state and locally one of the most prominent conservative commentators urged people to just stay home.

And that’s why on the eve of an election where every hand need to be on deck to stop a career poll like Ed Markey who votes dem 98% of the time I was obliged to make a pitch to Tea Party members to show up and vote for GOP candidate Gabriel Gomez.

That’s a really bad sign.

Perhaps I’m wrong, perhaps Latino voters who have been rather silent during this race will turn out in huge numbers without the left shuttling them to the polls or without local activist groups bringing them to vote for the first of their own ignoring those who call Gomez a LINO (Latino in name only)  For the sake of my state and my country I hope they do

If not the Miracle Max video in Ed Morrissey’s post will be quite apt.

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Olimometer 2.52

It’s Tuesday and the weekly paycheck has moved forward only 12 more readers kicking in $20 are needed to give me a full check for the first time in June.

Yeah even if I make the paycheck I’ll still be short $354 for the mortgage but one target at a time.

For now I’ll worry about finding a dozen of you willing to hit DaTipJar below and get me to that first goal. Then I’ll worry about finding 18 more.

In my earlier post I touched on Chris Christie’s motivations for his moves on Hurricane Sandy a few weeks ago but I didn’t touch on the argument made in Christopher Bedford’s  piece that Chris Christie is going nowhere in 2016.

I think he’s right.

Let’s note two examples from the recent past.

1. December 21st 2009 Martha Martha Martha

Martha Coakley has just won a 4 way Democrat Primary after pledging to not allow any abortion restriction in the Obamacare almost immediately has an epiphany

In a statement to the Globe yesterday, Coakley said that although she was disappointed that the Senate bill “gives states additional options regarding the funding mechanisms for women’s reproductive health services,’’ she would reluctantly support it because it would provide coverage for millions of uninsured people and reduce costs.

As Newsbusters reported at the time even the Globe called them on it

Coakley is such a self-serving hypocritical flip-flopper than not even the Boston Globe could spin this story to make her look good. In almost any other state, Coakley would have very little chance in the general election but, hey, this is Massachusetts we are talking about here. Democrat candidates for senator aren’t so much elected as automatically coronated.

Well a lot of Dem activists remember this and having little fear of the GOP decided not to get to work, but the perfect storm of Obama care and the appeal of Scott Brown turned the coronation into the first shot of the tea party revolution that eventually gave the GOP the House that they have retained ever since. But if Coakley hadn’t upset the base with a month to go before the election they might have energized their people to the point

2. May 24th 2011 Remember where you came from

Scott Brown rode the perfect storm to a senate seat in Massachusetts. The most important part of that was the army of volunteers from the tea party that who worked tirelessly to take him across the finish line in an election with no other race on the ballot by five points.

Once the democrats were forced to use the previously passed senate version of Obamacare to get the bill passed in the house. Senator Brown worried about his re-election prospects in a strongly blue state decided to take a different tack forgetting this golden rule:

No matter how many votes you give them, no matter many words you say or do. LIBERAL NGO’S AND THE MSM ARE NOT GOING TO SUPPORT YOU IN 2012.

Once you get this through your head, the rest is easy.

Of these lessons the 3rd is the most important for Senator Brown to learn, will he be wise enough to do so. That is the $64,000 question.

Unfortunately Senator Brown answered the question in spades on the Ryan Budget:

In addition to the first lesson that he hadn’t learned there were two new rules that he missed out on:

1. I don’t know what other people’s expectations but I expect my US Senator’s to use a standard other than “Does Newt Gingrich put his foot in his mouth” on what will be supported or not.

2. If anyone in the GOP thinks that the League of Liberal Women voters or any other liberal group is going to go less all out against Scott Brown they are deluding themselves. Brown could vote a straight Harry Reid line and Massachusetts liberals would spend tens of millions to destroy him.

and that’s the nice way of putting it. Legal Insurrection wasn’t nearly as kind:

I don’t blame you for voting against the Ryan bill; I don’t have litmus tests, and while I think the overall framework is the right direction, I can’t argue with the fact that people may have specific alternatives or amendments.

But you don’t have alternatives. In your op-ed you simply repeat the hackneyed and failed notions of waste, fraud and abuse, with tort reform thrown in. That will not cut it. That is a dodge.

You apparently have no solutions to what you admit to be an unsustainable course, but you took the opportunity to imply that Republicans will abandon seniors. You don’t come right out and say it, but you came pretty close.

A “no” vote wasn’t good enough, you had to do it in a way so as to damage fellow Republicans by playing into the false Democratic narrative. You are a hero for your op-ed, but not to the people who supported you.

Go down the list of those praising your op-ed, and you will see the same people who smeared you as a “birther”, who distributed rape mailers against you, who mocked you as a crazy extremist, who accused you of endorsing sexual violence against your opponent, and who will work to defeat you in 2012.

I can’t speak for all your supporters, and maybe not even for many of them. But I’m done defending you against the people who are cheering your op-ed.

So it’s time to say goodbye and good luck.

I will not work against you, but I also will not work for you. There are many more important battles to fight in 2012.

Just remember Morning Joe praised Scott Brown over and Over again but when the chips were down they were in Warren’s corner. Meanwhile on election day there was nobody to take my mother to vote for Scott Brown except me.

Scott Brown is a nice guy. He made time for voters and he was the spark that lit the republican revolution, but his willingness to toss aside the activists, the same mistake that Martha Coakley is a why a candidate as weak as Elizabeth Warren was able to beat him so convincingly.

And his sudden endorsement of the Assault Weapons Ban isn’t going to get the base dialing the phone for him either.

Part of that storm was the work of hundreds of dedicated conservative activists but without the hard work of tea party activists going all out in a state where they had never had any hope at all, Brown’s election would not have been possible.

And to the amazement of many I’m not even going to touch on Mitt Romney’s problems with conservatives.

No Chris Christie is no Mitt Romney, no Scott Brown and certainly no Martha Coakely. He is a strong, determined and dynamic person who will not make the mistake that Romney did in being shy about attacking so one should never say “never” but you must have the foot soldiers to fight and he can’t win without them.

The real question is this: Is Chris Christie’s Ego so large that he thinks the MSM will still love him when he is the GOP standard-bearer? If he’s foolish enough to buy that he doesn’t have any business running for any higher office

I’m going to be very busy today so before I go off and vote and check various races here are the videos / photos from the Scott Brown & Mitt Romney events that I didn’t get up last night.

Interviews (Voters always come first, they are the most important)

Mitt Volunteer from last night Mystery author Richard Hatin

Sitting right behind me were two voters who came only for Kid Rock

(he and his wife left as soon as Mitt was introduced by Kid Rock):

Bruce the Obama guy’s seat after Mitt was announced by Kid Rock

There was also Dan who came from VT to volunteer

And Craig when it was all over

Next a little Kid Rock

And a few shots

Party time!

Funny picture of the night

The reason that sign is in front of the other woman’s face is the first picture I took was them together but the lady behind the sign was a Verizon Arena worker on duty she asked not to be in the picture so I reshot

Picture most indicative of the race as a whole was from the morning


This is Rosemary Reynolds, City Counselor in Fitchburg for a long time and solid democrat until recently when as a faithful catholic she simply couldn’t stomach it anymore. She like my mother actually changed her registration but a lot of people like her are still registered as D but voting R.

And then there is this reception for Mitt:

It’s important to note there were two distinct sides one to be close to Mitt & one to be close to Kid Rock. Mitt’s side was more full by a factor of 3

(going to post and then update with the rest of the videos and photos in a sec…)

Update, now the pols…

Congressman Frank Guinta:

I didn’t get Charlie Bass’ speech but I got this shot

Ovide Lamontagne candidate Governor:

Sen Kelly Ayotte:

and the crowd before Kid Rock

Uploading the photos next

The Moran Square Diner has been a Fitchburg fixture for decades host


hosting locals. Years ago Senator Edward Kennedy put away a Cheeseburger and a dog at this corner booth during his visit.

With election day 24 hours away Senator Scott Brown Bus came to Fitchburg

and after speaking to the crowd

sat in that very same booth

The Kennedy booth becomes the People’s booth

greeting voters and talking to people at lunch turning the “Kennedy” seat into the “People” seat as he seeks re-election and a full six year term to represent the people of Massachusetts.

It’s not surprising he would find himself in Fitchburg, and not just for the incredible breakfasts and lunch that owner Chris Giannetti has been serving to hungry customers for years.

or the hot chocolate that his daughter enjoyed after a brief interview:

good reasons thought they are.

It was because Fitchburg was one of the key cities that took Brown over the top, shocking pundits nationally and locally with his special election win in January 2010 which was the harbinger of the electoral pounding the left received 10 months. Inspiring GOP challengers such as Jon Golnik running in districts like Ma-3 where once the left once ran unopposed.

His 2010 victory remains a driver as the nation heads for the polls in 2012.

Gail Huff, wife of Senator Scott Brown greets a voter

It’s not an easy road. Incumbency is one of the few advantages Senator Brown brings to the race in 2012, this time around. Massachusetts remains a deep blue state (+25 registration advantage for democrats), instead of a special election with only his race to be decided he faces democrats above and below his spot on the ticket all trying to drive the faithful to the polls and finally he faces in Elizabeth Warren a person with a national following and reputation and millions of dollars to back her from some of the biggest donors the Democrat party has.

GOP candidate for Ma-3 Jon Golnik greets voters in Fitchburg before the Arrival of Senator Brown

These are tough hills to climb for Senator Brown and a source of comfort for Elizabeth Warren

But alas for Professor Warren, Senator Brown counters with two other advantages she cannot match for all the Hollywood dollars she may have to spend. He comes bearing a record as one of the most moderate Senators in the congress at a time where gridlock is a dirty word and “bi-partisan” is the favorite phrase of the media. He spoke of this in his initial remarks:

It’s very hard to condemn your opponent as an “extremist” when he votes against his own party 40% of the time.

Secondly there is Senator Brown demeanor.

Senator Brown has a well-earned reputation for listening to the voters no matter if they agree with him or no and being there when the voters need him. For years people on the right who wondered how Ted Kennedy kept his seat never taking into account his legendary reputation for constituent services. It is no accident that after being elected Senator Brown retained a fair amount of that Kennedy staff and shares that same reputation for listening to and taking care of the voters who sent him to Washington.

Senator Brown with a family at Moran Square Diner

This is why every poll of voters in the state during this race shows him drawing Democrats in numbers that no Republican in the country could ever dream of and why Fitchburg a city where, as Counselor at large Marcus DiNatale notes, Democrats have a 35 point registration advantage can be one of the cornerstones of Senator Brown’s re-election plans.

National Democrats considered this race their linchpin to retain the US senate in 2012, But as the latest polls and Senator Brown’s dogged campaign shows millions of dollars from the biggest elite donors from around the country will be hard pressed to counter a hand shaken in person and an ear willing to listen to a voter, any voter no matter what the party affiliation.

Democrats were shocked at Scott Brown taking “the Kennedy Seat” but as Senator Brown finished his meal in the booth once graced by his illustrious predecessor the left’s shock in 2010 is slowing becoming their resignation of 2012.

Today we have a special Bonus commentary where I go through the choices on my ballot and tell you who I will be voting for and why.

As you might guess there are not a lot of surprises here but if you want to know the reasoning behind it here is your chance.

I have complemented the WBUR poll in the past, looking at the latest version I see no reason to question it today. If the race with the same demographics has shifted then there is a reason and I believe I know the reason for it.

As her economic message has failed Elizabeth Warren has gone all abortion all the time (as has the Democrat party nationwide). This has caused Scott Brown to make a huge mistake.

In commercial after commercial Brown’s response is “me too”.

Listen, faithful Catholics understand Scott Brown is not where we want him to be, we understand that he is not as bad as Liz Warren, but Scott Brown needs to understand that he can’t out liberal Elizabeth Warren no matter how much he tries.

I’ll still vote for Brown, and I still suggest you do to, but just a reminder there are many people of faith who left the Democrat party because they were not wanted.

Brown needs to shift again and go back to what gave him a lead in the past, campaigning on his record. It’s a good record, and it’s a winning record.

This race is all about the economy, anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool.

Senator Brown if you are not going to remind the state why we voted for you. If your campaign’s response is to run away from the base at every chance you get, then maybe, the base will decide “You know what, I’ll vote for you, but if you don’t want me maybe I don’t need to work that phone anymore, maybe I don’t need to do that standout.”

Or maybe like me they’ll decide they don’t need that sign in front of their house anymore.

I can manage a 60% republican in Massachusetts I don’t expect better yet, but don’t expect me to hold a sign for you if you are going to hang a “kick me” sign on my back while I do it.

Your choice.

There are two polls I checked out before leaving the hotel today, both had bad news for the GOP but beyond that there is nothing else in common.

One is the WBUR poll on the Brown Warren Race. The WBUR poll shows a big swing toward Warren, now up by 5.

I’ve looked at the internals of the WBUR poll and as always they are spot on.

Although I want Scott Brown to win, this poll pleases me, Brown has made some big mistakes in the air war (more on that tomorrow) and hopefully this poll will cause him to pivot to a better strategy, the one that gave him the lead in the first place.

You can’t correct a problem unless you know it’s there, this poll informs the Brown campaign of a problem and thus is useful

I like that!

While I like the WBUR poll I absolutely LOVE the Time Magazine poll in Ohio showing Obama up 5.

You might ask: “DaTechGuy have you gone roadtrip crazy? Why would you love a poll showing Romney losing Ohio?”

Simple I looked at the internals of this poll. Unlike most polls the partisan splits are not as obvious, you have to do some math but it’s really quite simple.

They polled 783 people in the unweighed sample 290 Democrats, 220 Republicans and 224 independent. That comes out to a sample that is Dem 37.0% GOP 28.0 and 28.6 Ind That’s D+9

With 742 total respondents you have 273 Dems, 206 GOP and 215 independents that’s a split of 36.7% dems, 27.7% GOP and 28.9 Ind. Again a D+9 split

As Ohio is a +1 GOP state on registration this indicates the MSM has gone back to the “spin the polls” business to keep their people on the registration.

I’m delighted by this, it means the Obama campaign and the MSM has decided there is no way to reverse these numbers short of simple propaganda, this means they will not change their strategy and this race is finished.

Either that or the left is in denial, that’s exactly where I want them to be.

Closing note. In the studio on Morning Joe, Joe & Mika and the Panel are all hanging their hats on the Time Magazine poll, but Chuck Todd in Ohio hedged. Joe & Mika are opinion folk, they can afford to take a side, but Chuck Todd is the chief WH guy, he can’t look a fool

Mitt Romney is going to win this election and it’s not going to be close.

Today’s commentary is on the right vs the perfect. Here is the teaser:

The full commentary available only with the password is here, to view it simply hit DaTipJar




and I’ll send you the code as soon as I see the confirmation e-mail. If you don’t want to worry about ever missing a single video choose any subscription level




and I will e-mail you the codes every week as soon as the videos are uploaded and the posts are ready.

Tomorrow is the DaTechGuy 100th show Celebration at Lago’s Ristorante on October 20th. We will be broadcasting live from 10-noon and then staying till 2 to eat and say hello to all the people who made 100 weeks possible.

If you want to come simply fill out the form below

See you then

Twenty days ago I took a look at a poll from WBUR on the Brown Warren race.It showed Warren up 5 pts but was the first poll I’d seen anywhere that matched registration exactly

A Boston Herald poll showing Brown up +6 came out at the same time. I did a post comparing internals of the polls and found the WBUR poll credible and the Herald poll not.

I’d like to Believe the Herald poll, I really would and I’m aware of a shift of people away from the Democrat party to the ranks of the Unenrolled but without solid data to back it up I have to believe the WBUR poll over the Herald one

When the next WBUR poll Oct 1st matched demographics again I complemented them on twitter.

it got some push back for a friend of mine.

My thought has always been I want accurate polls because otherwise you can’t fix what is wrong with your campaign.

Well the latest WBUR poll is out and for the third time in a row their demographics match registration EXACTLY, it’s quite an achievement these days

This time however the results are totally different:

It appears that Scott Brown last debate combined with different Tactics have shifted this race dramatically, much better than ignoring the results or dismissing them.

And to those who would pooh pooh my pushing of this poll, I didn’t hear you complaining when it showed Warren up.

Be afraid leftists, be very afraid.

As we get ready for tonight debate here is my examiner piece contrasting the two debates in Massachusetts I covered this week, Brown v Warren & Tsongas V Golnik:

On Sunday afternoon incumbent Niki Tsongas running to retain her seat in the newly redrawn 3rd Massachusetts district faced Jon Golnik in the first debate of their rematch of the 2010 race at the Concord Carlisle High School.

On Monday Evening incumbent Scott Brown running to retain his seat in the US senate faced Elizabeth Warren in their second debate at the Tsongas Center in Lowell.

Both debates where an hour long and both featured the respective nominees of the Republican and Democrat Parties but there the similarities ended.

We focus on the big races, Romney vs Obama, Brown vs Warren but there are hundreds of house races flying under the radar that the future of the next president’s terms will depend on.

Please click and read the whole thing, it’s the easiest way to put 3/4 of a cent in my pocket short of hitting DaTipJar

I shot a lot of photos and videos from Yesterday’s Brown Warren debate the full catalog is below but here are a few worth some comment:

First some stills (augmented by video when appropriate)

A Union Truck

There was a HUGE union presence here for Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren, it made a big difference in the cheer level in the auditorium.

When they say “Organized” labor they aren’t kidding and in a campaign that really helps.

View from the stage 6:57 PM

Just before the debate Still photos were allowed from around the stage, In addition to the shots of the candidates and the students on stage I shot this one of the attendees, contrast that to the same shot 3 hours earlier


Frankly if you wanted to get a real idea of the crowd size you should have seen the concession lines.

They were HUGE.

Enter Barney Frank:

Rep Barney Frank as you might expect, attended the debate, I briefly spoke to him on not having to campaign this year. You could see he was visibly more relaxed. Any person who has run a congressional campaign can relate and understand this, even “easy” races require more effort than you think

At the same time you have attendees like this father and son

Do not be surprised to see a kid like this going in the VIP entrance in 50 years as a sitting congressman

HOWARD LAWRENCE CARR

I was not the only representative of WCRN in the building Howie Carr’s show is simulcast on WCRN where our 50,000 watt signal augments his own at WRKO. He also gave out some interesting T-Shirts:

but most important of all he took time for a quick interview during a break in the show:

Fedoras

You didn’t think I was going to ignore the Fedora shots did you? At the stage

In the Press Room


And a better Fedora than mine.

The videos next after the jump

Continue reading “The full photos and Videos from the Brown Warren Debate”

****Update: I was a tad sick yesterday so I crashed last night. Any photos not in this post went up the next day here.

I’m at the Tsongas Center for the 2nd debate between Sen Scott Brown & Elizabeth Warren in the Race for the only seat the GOP currently holds in Massachusetts

I arrived at 3 p.m and was showed where to park by a nice lady by the name of Maureen who directed me to the press parking area.

As I parked I saw some guys unloading Scott Brown signs from their vehicle:

They were late compared to the Warren folks who were already lining the area, I spotted a union truck that signs were unloading from

When I got to the meridian I stared to record:

More to Come…..

UPDATE: Jumping to the live blog

****Almost 6-7 min on Fauxahauntus issue, this is NOT good for Liz Warren.

**** 7:12 Brown landing roundhouses early

**** 7:15 Gregory being Gregory but Brown seems to be throwing him easily. Warren really on Defensive here.

**** 7:16 Warren interrupting Brown and Gregory lets her. This is exactly what she doesn’t need particularly with only a 1 hour debate.

The first full 20 minutes all hitting Warren on one issue or the other and we haven’t even gotten to the law license issues.

It’s very true Scott Brown was supported by Mitt Romney early, David Gregory trying to link Romney with Brown, Brown outpolling Romney by 20 pts in Massachusetts.

7:23: The Bi-Parisian issue important in Massachusetts (d-24 state) , The Lugar thing doesn’t help, Gregory trying to stick Brown with McConnell.

7:26 I’m sorry nobody believes Brown will not be voting for McConnell

7:27: Not voting with Obama is a positive to me,

7:30 Union rent a crowd booing Brown for daring to prevent Warren from interrupting him

7:32: the more money you give to Washington the more they are going to spend.

7:33 Brown really outnumbered at that table but more than holding his own.

7:35 If this was a boxing match the ref would have already stopped it Brown is destroying her.

(more video from the folks outside)

7:40 We are back I’d love to hear what Warren’s cornerman was telling her

7:46: The Union heavy crowd doesn’t like Brown’s dream act answer but it plays VERY well in Massachusetts with Massachusetts voters

7:49 Afghanistan question, Warren wants troops home now. Brings up military in family, Warren’s best answer of the night

7:50 Brown supporting surge and timetable not supporting giving date, but both answers good one. Will rely on Generals and President.

7:52 Gimmie question on supreme court followed by a gimmie question on women in Massachusetts Gregory trying to bail out Warren and another loaded question on John Kerry, designed to hurt Brown with base.

7:54 Are you serious we are wasting the last question on Bobby Valentine? REALLY?

7:58 David Gregory carried Elizabeth Warren for the last 15 min of this debate, simply amazing.

******

My verdict: You would have to go to Reagan/Carter to find a more one sided debate, Brown simply destroyed her in the first half and if David Gregory did not carry her with softballs it’s would have been even worse. This is the kind of debate that changes elections.

I was able to Briefly speak to Senator Brown after an event at the Leominser Elks Club before the Johnny Appleseed festival in Leominster:

One of the things you simply have to love about Scott Brown is he’s so NORMAL. Consider the end of his answer to my question on his appeal:

“Last time I got votes from the Democratic party the independent party the republican party and quite frankly people who just like to party”

Can you imagine, Elizabeth Warren saying this? Can you imagine her even thinking this. She would be Dean Wormer making deals with the Mafia guy. Even worse she would be Neidermeyer.

The left is going to spend a lot of money in the Massachusetts Senate Race, they are going to say a lot of stuff and they are going to be very desperate in the end (Mika from Morning Joe not withstanding) but they simply can’t beat Scott Brown with a candidate like Elizabeth Warren.

And that’s not even touching on the Law License business

Update: I guess Sen Brown has this guys’ vote tied down:

For those too humorless to get it, listen to Senator Brown’s answers, he takes his job seriously as he should but he also doesn’t take himself seriously which he shouldn’t, that is the ticket to detachment not only from reality but from the people you represent.

In a sane and normal world this video would not make a single bit of difference in the Senate Election in Massachusetts:

However the odds of this not going viral is the same as Lindsay Lohan & Amanda Bynes deciding to become Amish so it is going to have to be dealt with. So here is my advice to the Brown campaign:

Best choice: Put out a statement saying something along the lines of this:

Although I agree with the sentiments concerning the NY Yankees this behavior is not acceptable, I condemn it and ask my supporters to conduct themselves with decorum. We are a campaign that believes in doing the right thing

At the same time I would ask the Elizabeth campaign to also do the right thing and release the info concerning her hiring. Professor Warren has claimed she did not use her “native American” to get these positions. The right thing would be to release this information and let the public see for themselves.

Acceptable choice:

I would like to come out and officially say I do not agree with or condone the actions of those chanting at this event. We expect all of our supporters to carry themselves properly and will not tolerate actions to the contrary.

Get a statement out before noon so it plays at once, this needs to be an old story by the time 5 p.m. comes around. After the statement is made, don’t go there again, if the media presses use the first statement to bring up Warren’s lack of transparency & contrast it to you “doing the right thing”

Above all let the Warren Campaign and the MSM overplay it.

Do not: Downplay or Ignore, Why, because the media will not ignore this and will run with it as long as you ignore it (and beyond).

There is a smart and foolish response for the Warren Campaign too, but as she’s not paying me and I’m on the other side so I’ll let her figure that our herself, my guess she will play it dead wrong.

I just received a new poll for Ma-3 (My congressional district) that says a lot about the races in Massachusetts.

This is a district that is newly formed so there are not concrete numbers available for the party splits (I am systematically calling each town in the district to get the numbers hope to have them by the end of the week). But while we don’t have the party splits we DO have the numbers from the Scott Brown election for the district in 2010:

Brown 57% 129521
Coakley 42% 95820
Kennedy<1% 2181

There are of course three races going on here the first is for president:

Barack Obama – 52%
Mitt Romney – 44%
Undecided – 4%

This at first glance looks like bad news for Mitt in Mass, To even have an outside chance of winning in Massachusetts he needs big numbers in areas outside of Boston, Worcester & Springfield.

Meanwhile in the Congressional race looks very similar

Niki Tsongas – 52%
Jon Golnik­ – 45%
Undecided – 3%

Tsongas is running even with Obama but Golnik is already closer than the last time he faced her. Can he he close a 7 pt gap. It should be doable, it will take hard work and turnout but it CAN be done.

Meanwhile here is are Scott Brown numbers these hold the key for all the races we have talked about.

Scott Brown – 54%
Elizabeth Warren – 42%
Undecided – 4%

At first glance this poll might be encouraging to Elizabeth Warren, she is still even with Martha Coakley and Brown would have to that 3 out of the remaining 4 pts of undecided to match the last go around. But there are several reasons to worry here if I’m Warren first comes this split in the polls

Female – 55%

Male – 45%

Yes you read that right, you have a +10 pt gap women vs Men and yet Scott Brown out polls that champion of women Liz Warren by 12 points (and remember this was taken BEFORE the law license revelations of today)

“But DaTechGuy”, you say, “didn’t you teach us not to jump until you see the splits what were the splits on this poll?”

I’m so glad you asked here are the splits in this poll:

Democrat – 31%
Republican – 17%
Independent / Other – 52%

That’s +14 for dems in a +24 state (-4 dem vs +6 GOP compared to statewide, undeclared is the same) This is a much more GOP section of the state but I’ll need till the end of the week to confirm by how much but lets note the following:

In a sample that is +14 dem & +10 women

Barack Obama only has an 8 point lead on Mitt Romney
Nikki Tsongas only has a 7 point lead on Jon Golnik

And Scott Brown leads Elizabeth Warren by 12 points! Twelve POINTS!

Brown needs a good gap here to win in Mass and for Mitt to have any chance at winning the state he has do to better but to pull these kind of numbers with a -14 disadvantage if extrapolated statewide & nationally says a lot about both Warren & Obama and none of it good.

While all of that is important lets look at this congressional race and the numbers involved.

Favorable/Unfavorable

Tsongas is +22 with a 57% Favorability Ratings. She has a famous name and is a sitting congresswoman but more importantly she is a pleasant person. Additionally only 8% of the electorate dosn’t have an opinion so that’s a real advantage.

Her Opponent Jon Golnik has a +16 Favorability Ratings, that’s nothing to sneeze at particularly in a -14 poll sample but the big difference here is 34% of those polled either haven’t heard of him or haven’t made up their minds.

This is his opening, 7 points is extremely doable and Golink has several things he can do

1. Obamacare: Remember Obamacare was the reason Scott Brown did so well last time, Nikki Tsongas has (to her credit) not run away from her vote for the Unpopular law. Golnik needs to tie her Obamacare so tightly to Nikki Tsongas that if she fell into the water she could use her vote as a flotation device.

2. Brown/Golnik Warren/Tsongas: Scott Brown was an early endorser of Jon Golnik, he needs to play up, it must be Golnik & Brown vs Tsongas & Warren. If Scott Brown so much as goes stop to go get Gas anywhere in the District Golnik needs to sanding next to him. Any Brown event in Ma-3 HAS to be a Golnik event meanwhile all over Fitchburg I see Nikki Tsongas & Elizabeth Warren signs together, great, link them by the hip.

3. Positive Positive Positive: Hitting a 66 year old widow of a beloved figure in the state isn’t going to do the trick, the instinct to go negative needs to be resisted (and no tying her to Obamacare is not negative advertising, that’s the truth)

The case to make is this: Nikki Tsongas is a nice person and an honest person, she just wrong. That’s the ad: Nikki Tsongas & Elizabeth Warren, wrong on Obamacare, wrong on Taxes and wrong for the 3rd District. Jon Golnik like Scott brown believes lower taxes, ending the Mandate of Obamacare and will fight to bring jobs back to new 3rd district.

This race is completely winnable by Jon Golnik with some hard work and some smart moves but if you are the left consider this:  In Massachusetts with a +14 D sample and a +10 Women sample  has an opponent in striking range.

If this is the situation in Massachusetts what must it be nationwide in states where Obama is not as popular?

And it shouts to the right loud and clear:

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

If I was the left, I’d be afraid, VERY afraid.

Here is what people discovered:

  • Scott Brown stands by his good record.
  • Scott Brown’s stands by his awful record
  • Everybody loves the troops
  • Everybody loves women.
  • Scott Brown wants to protect Millionaires & Billionaires
  • Elizabeth Warren wants to turn your wallet into her personal piggy bank.

What you really learned, this style debate is fun and it’s not about the moderator which is good, but it got old really fast.

Good thing for Brown: The “I stand by my record” is appealing.  It’s always good when a person doesn’t duck

Bad thing for Brown: He is a likable person, you didn’t like ether of these folks much by the end.

Good thing for Warren: The stress of her family in the military. It de-elites her which is her biggest weakness

Bad Thing for Warren: If there was ever a week to NOT stress how much you want Barack Obama as the Commander-in-Chief, this was it.

My take:  Tacitly:  This debate was pretty much a wash, I think that helps Warren because of her slight lead. When a great part of your appeal is likability a debate that makes you want to throw rocks at the screen is bad, that could hurt, Scott Brown.

 

Strategically:  Brown established a big meme last night.  “Elizabeth Warren wants to turn your wallet into her piggy bank” was a memorable line.  If he has planted that meme in the heads of people it can be the basis of attacks for the rest of the campaign.  Additionally Warren took a big risk stressing not just she support for Barack Obama (which helps in MA)  but her support for him as Commander in Chief.

As the details of a successful Terrorist attack on  9/11  continue to come out the “I want to keep Barack Obama” as commander in Chief.” just might come back to haunt her.

Warren people might be happy tonight but if the Brown Campaign is smart (and I think they are) they will hang the repetitive narratives of this debate around Elizabeth Warren’s neck and make her slowly choke her on it.

This could be VERY Interesting

Update: I should have mentioned we also found out that Scott Brown in not an incumbent, because the debate moderator refused to call him “Senator” he was Mr. Brown. In my life I have never seen that. Was there a single debate where Ted Kennedy was not referred to as “Senator”?

Yesterday I put up a post saying I believed the WBUR poll showing Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren leading over the Herald poll showing Senator Scott Brown ahead, I mentioned in passing anecdotal evidence that supported my data based conclusions but didn’t detail it. If you were wondering what I saw that favors Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren, wonder no more!

1. Visibility:

Two months ago you couldn’t find a house with a sign for Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren sign in my driving area with a magnifying glass, today they are everywhere I go and not just on open land but at private houses. Signage doesn’t win elections as Joe Solomito discovered last year but a total lack of signage doesn’t help.

2. The Silent Woman:

Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren has shifted her TV ads. Instead of her talking you have other people talking for her. That helps, When she talks you instantly think “Elitist” (unlike say Stacy McCain) Having regular people talk for her instead hides who she is and that’s smart.

3. The Brown Pivot:

Senator Scott Brown’s TV ad have shifted a bit, he was doing great with the TV ads in the truck and with Democrats talking about why they support Brown but three ads in particular don’t help;

a. The “Good Job” ad:

<iframe width=”440″ height=”275″ src=”http://www.youtube.com/embed/2dlDrSVrIio” frameborder=”0″ allowfullscreen>

This is one of the “Truck” ads, for most of the at it works, talking about how he opposed members of congress using inside info for stock deals but the bit with Obama telling him “Good Job” doesn’t play as well as he might think. It is no coincidence that Obama visited the weekend before his election victory in 2010

b. The “I’m pro-choice” ad:

<iframe width=”440″ height=”275″ src=”http://www.youtube.com/embed/5kUdnLx5n5Y” frameborder=”0″ allowfullscreen>

There are a lot A LOT of people who are in the GOP strictly over Abortion. While they understand that Brown is not with them (and Warren is worse) they don’t need to be reminded on the air.   Even worse the tone of the ads suggest that if you don’t support Abortion you are not for women.  That is an insult to the ladies who fight tirelessly against the murder of unborn life.  Take that first 5 seconds off that ad and it would work. For myself this ads and his appeal to the GOP to drop the abortion plank is why although I’ve voting Brown and will urge others to do so, I can’t put his sign in my yard.

c. The “Elizabeth Warren” is lying ad:

As a rule you don’t put up an ad like this unless you are worried and you certainly don’t appear in that ad yourself. You have a woman voice over the ad or have either your wife or one of your daughters do the TV ad but NOT YOU. A man who complains that a woman is picking on him becomes the butt of jokes for guys and turns off women no matter what any metrosexuals tell you otherwise.

Now the debates will help because it is impossible for Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren to not speak for herself there but if you are playing duck dodge and hide it won’t wash. Never forget this rule: Never try to out liberal a liberal it won’t win you a single vote among actual liberals and it just turns off conservatives & independents.

You are an appealing candidate and a pretty good senator, people like you, I like you. Just be yourself and say what you’ve done and what you believe.   Be proactive not reactive and you will win, be reactive and you give your opponent an opening she doesn’t deserve.

As everyone knows I’ve been hitting the polls lately for their simply outrageous attempts to create a false narrative by playing games with Demographic results.

In the last 48 hours two polls have come out concerning the Scott Brown Race in Massachusetts with diametrically different results, one by the liberal leaning WBUR a public radio Station out of Boston and once by the Boston Herald the right leaning Newspaper of the city.

WBUR puts Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren up by 5, The Herald puts Senator Scott Brown up by 6. That is fully a 11 point different in two polls released a day apart. Obviously they BOTH can’t be reflective of the State as a whole so lets look at them one at a time:

WBUR: This is a real difference from the last poll I looked at that showed a dead heat so when this poll came out I was ready for the worst and went straight for the party splits.

The Good news is finally FINALLY I’m seeing a poll where the splits match the demographics of the state.  The unweighed poll numbers were as follows:

Total 507 voters

Democrats polled 185 37%
GOP  60 12%
Unenrolled or other 262 51%

That’s a D+25 split which if this was a national poll would be a complete joke (and not quite unexpected considering the Whoppers we’ve seen lately) but in Massachusetts a state with under 5 GOP members in it’s senate and where getting to 25% representation in the House was an ACHIEVEMENT that’s not a joke, that’s the reality It matches up with the population based on the official state numbers from earlier this year.

WBUR’s poll gets Warren up 5 by the following results:

Sen Scott Brown:

With Unenrolleds (Independents):   51% electorate Brown up 49-35 (ind) Brown gets 24.99 vote

With the GOP:   12% electorate Brown up 85-9 (r)  10.2 vote

With Democrats:  37% electorate Warren up 71-15 (D) 5.55 vote

That adds up to 40.5 % of the vote for Scott Brown

On the other end Former Obama Administration Official Warren breakdown adds up to 17.85 (Ind) + 1.08 (GOP) + 26.27 (DEM)

That adds up to 45.2%

These numbers match the polling and demographics so I find this poll:   Credible

———————-

Boston Herald:

Now lets look at the Herald poll that has Brown up by 6 numbers

This poll shows Sen Brown up Buy 6 points among registered voters & 4 points among likely voters. It’s the first poll I’ve ever seen showing a Republican doing WORSE among likely voters than registered ones.

Sen Scott Brown takes:   93% of GOP & Leaners 58% of Independents & 20% of Democrats.
Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren takes:   7% of Republicans & Leaners, 35% of Independents & 73% of Democrats

The results are dramatically different vs the WBUR poll Brown’s share of the GOP vote is 8pts higher Warren’s 2 pts lower, With independents Brown is +9 in the Herald with Warren flat & with Dems Brown’s Share jumps +5 pts while Warren’s is +2

That accounts for part of the difference but lets look at the all important demographic split

lets focus on that highlighted area

This represents a split of +17 Dems without leaners and +20 with people who lean one way or the other. This however doesn’t match the latest demographics of the state. While the GOP figure is about right the Democrat figure is of 28% among likely voters is a full 9 points lower than it should be.

The Herald poll indicates Sen Brown winning one in five democrats so that under-sampling has a lesser effect but even so under-sampling by 9 points?   It just won’t do. If you adjust based on that under-sampling that Turns the Sen Brown 4-6 pt lead into a Warren 1-3 pt lead.

Thus I must dub the Herald poll:  Not Credible

I’d like to Believe the Herald poll, I really would and I’m aware of a shift of people away from the Democrat party to the ranks of the Unenrolled but without solid data to back it up I have to believe the WBUR poll over the Herald one. Moreover several anecdotal bits of evidence have cropped up lately that suggest Former Obama Administration Official Elizabeth Warren has improved her standing which makes the WBUR poll more believable to me (more on that tomorrow).

But “DaTechGuy” you Might say, “You’re a Republican, you want Brown to win.  It’s your duty to back up the poll to help swing the momentum.”

That may be the MSM way but I say balderdash! The way to win a campaign is to look at it honestly and base your actions accordingly.  If I am winning I want to know it so I can keep exploiting my success, if I’m not I want to know it so I can correct any problems or mistakes.

Self delusion is no way to win an election, a lesson the MSM will learn nationally in November.

Update:  Sharp eyed readers will notice the original name for this post was “WBUR shows how it’s done”.  I started writing it yesterday but crashed on the couch exhausted before I finished it.  When I woke up at 2:30 AM the Herald poll was out and decided to shift the focus to a comparison and simply forgot to rename the internal title.

Update 2:  Today new fox poll that is supposedly “devastating” to the Romney Campaign Parisian splits Ohio D +6  Virginia D +5 Florida D +5 Ho Hum, more of the same.

Update 3:  it is spelled Pew but perhaps it should be spelled PU.  Pew reports Obama +8 Sample D +9 the biggest joke of the poll is this:

That’s a 15 point Obama edge in an election that Obama won by 7.2 but it’s even worse because those numbers are based on 86.  if you do the full percentages based on 100% of voters it comes out Obama 54.6% (+1.7 over 2008) and McCain 37.2% (-8.6 under 2008) in this sample.

Now you might think Obama is ahead but does anyone ANYONE believe he will do 1.7 point better than 2008.  Does anyone ANYONE believe Romney will underperform McCain by 8.6?

Maybe that will fool Talking points Memo, Firedoglake and the like but it won’t fool anyone who can, you know do MATH.

This week a KPC poll came out from Massachusetts showing a dead heat between Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren and a 16pt lead for Barack Obama.

There are several parts of this poll that are interesting and informative but the single most important figure you need to see is this:

Take a look at that split in Massachusetts Dems out number R’s by 23 points This should tell you how hard it is to elect a Republican nationally. If Independents split 50-50 you would have a 61.5% vs 39.5 win for the Democrats, a 22 point split, but instead it’s 56-40 for Obama.

What does that tell us nationally: Regardless of what the media is telling you Obama is in trouble

Massachusetts is one of the most liberal states in the nation (D+23). In this state a three-point Romney lead among independents is not going to make a huge difference, but in states that are say D+5 with independents that are less left leaning that could make a huge difference.

That is interesting but not as interesting as this:

Take a look at the reverse splits on Romney & Warren Voters vs Obama & Brown voters. If you are a Romney voter you are almost certainly voting for Brown only 3% going Warren & 2% undecided, yet if you are an Obama voter you are four times more likely to Voter for Brown than a Romney voter is to vote for Liz Warren (12%) with an almost equal number still up for grabs (11%).

Meanwhile the exact opposite is at the bottom, Liz Warren voters go for Obama in the same proportion as Romney voters for her, yet Brown voters are five times more likely (15%) to vote Obama with only a 4% up for grabs.

What does this tell us nationally? It tells us the MSM & National Base of the MSM has gone uber left.

There were several interesting local candidates who were willing to challenge Scott Brown, but the National Media and the National Democrats were totally enamored with Elizabeth Warren, pushing for her candidacy and filling her coffers until the local folks were squeezed out. The national media continues to push for Liz Warren bigtime yet look at these results.

How far left is a candidate who is too far left for Obama voters in Massachusetts?

That this is the candidate the national media simply adores and continues to push should inform you not just about Liz Warren, but should inform you about the national media that is still in denial over the results of the 2010 election.

And believe me, if you think they were in shock in 2010, 2012 will put them in a coma.
#2 The

Today I saw a tweet from Michael Graham about becoming an Honorary Girl

I clicked on it, and saw his post which referred to a story lat the Boston Globe:

The chairman of the Massachusetts Democratic Party, rallying state delegates before the Democratic National Convention, today said that Senator Scott Brown tried to portray himself as “an honorary girl” by folding laundry in a TV commercial targeting women voters.

Chairman John Walsh made the comment in a blistering opening statement at the delegation’s first breakfast meeting before the convention kicks off Tuesday. Brown is facing a stern reelection challenge from Democrat Elizabeth Warren, who will address the convention on Wednesday night.

Mind you this was not a single congressman speaking in an interview. This was the Massachusetts Democrat Party Chairman speaking at a DNC breakfast to the Massachusetts delegation.

The Globe Story continues:

Asked about his “honorary girl” comment afterward, the chairman told the Globe that he was being “fresh.”

Michael Graham snarks over it

Hey, John—I fold laundry. I do dishes, too. And I love to cook. So am I an “honorary girl,” too?

That’s funny but not the point. How did the delegation react? Did they clap, did they boo? How was he not shouted down? Where are the members of the delegation denouncing the comment on camera? These are remarks made by a Democrat Party State Charmian at the Democrat Party’s National Convention, a convention featuring Sandra Fluke and nobody’s talking? Where is Debbie Wasserman Schultz calling for his resignation? Where is Stephanie Cutter demanding he apologize? Where is Barack Obama or even former Obama Administration official Elizabeth Warren distancing herself from this chairman?

And where on earth is the MSM?, I saw this on Twitter TWITTER! How is it that the media that was all Todd Akin all the time not doing wall to wall coverage on this remark? They aren’t just excusing this remark, they are SILENT.

If you didn’t understand that the “War on Women” business was as phony as a $3 bill before, you sure ought to now.

As anyone knows I’m not a big fan of Elizabeth Warren politically (I’ve never met the lady, I’ve heard she’s rather nice rather nice person) and I certainly don’t support her for Senator. But while I’m amused by the grief she is getting over the lilly-white photo lets point out a few things:

  • It’s the middle of Summer younger people in college or high school have free time
  • The Unemployment rate is high, it’s even higher among the young and even higher among young people of color
  • I doubt the Elizabeth Warren Campaign (or any campaign) would turned away a young person of color who volunteered

Now I would submit and suggest that the whole dependency culture message of the Democrats should naturally turn off minorities, the whole condescending: “You can’t make it without me and the Government” business is a thumb in the eye while the GOP message of: “You can do it and we’ll get Government out of the way” is one of confidence.

However I am led to believe that there area fair number of of people of color who disagree with me here and overwhelming support the left, but his picture doesn’t suggest it.

The success of the Tea Party electorally is due to the willingness of people to get involved, and give work and time to causes they believe in, and despite the cries of “Astroturf” by Pelosi there isn’t a bunch of Koch money funding them.

You run with the volunteers you have. Elizabeth Warren has been running for quite a while. If you are a member of the GOP like me sure, I can look at that picture and laugh, maybe I’d joke: “What are you talking about? I’ll bet all of those folks are 1/32 Cherokee.”

But if I’m Elizabeth Warren I have two choices: I can pull an SEIU and pay people of color to show up as if they are volunteers AstroTurfing the pictures or I can take the shot with the people who actually show up.

So young leftist I’m sure Warren would have been happy to have your face in that shot, if you weren’t in the picture it’s your fault not hers.

Of course If I was you, I’d head on down to the Scott Brown HQ instead….

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DaTechGuy’s fundraiser continues and as you can see by the thermometer your $10 & $20 is needed to keep things going as there is not a bunch of Koch money in the till for the record if the Koch brothers or rich conservatives want to kick in and get me to our $3000 goal and beyond , I’m a capitalist, I’ll take it!




Last week in Bow NH I asked John Jackson, a Scott Brown Supporter a question:

“Do you think as a person from Massachusetts that the national reaction to that speech might actually backfire in Massachusetts towards Elizabeth Warren as well to the favor of Scott Brown?”

John said it was very hard to tell.

This weekend noting the president’s dash away from the words he appropriated from Elizabeth Warren, the one member of congress running toward him I asked another question:

If Elizabeth Warren is too left for Barack Obama ya think she might be too left to beat Scott Brown?

Today Scott Brown released an ad that answered that question:

The ad is Brilliant! It quotes Kennedy, Clinton, LBJ, Ford and Reagan and their messages of praise for the American entrepreneur with the speeches of the president and of Elizabeth Warren with the words:

How did we go from this…to This?

Once a one minute version of this ad starts playing it’s going to be devastating. Why because as Ed Morrissey notes it contrasts yesterdays Democrats with the current lot:

It’s the use of traditional Democrats that’s most effective, though, and one suspects the claiming of the Kennedy mantle that will most sting Warren and the Democrats in Massachusetts. The ad reminds voters that this isn’t their fathers’ Democratic Party any longer — a point Joe Lieberman made last week — and that Warren and Obama represent extremes on the Left that remain very much disconnected with mainstream American attitudes about enterprise and the role of government.

That has been the biggest advantage for the left in Massachusetts, they have been living off the legacy of JFK and others when the only resemblance they have with them is the letter “D”.

This is going to be devastating to Warren in an election where she needs to find votes outside her normal comfort zone.

Be Afraid Democrats, be VERY afraid.

Update: Greg Sargant Media Matter’s favorite MSM echo is calling Brown a liar, that means he is right on target. If that wasn’t proof enough the Maddow Blog Kos and Charles Johnson have joined in (no links for them). This suggests this is a real game changer and they know it.
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The DaTechGuy Fundraiser is in progress, I’d really like to hit that primary goal of $3000 before the end of July. Can you help?

For details click here for the progress check the thermometer to the right and to kick in hit DaTipJar”.