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“First we must cross the river,” Benito was saying.  “Do you believe me now when I tell you that you must not attempt to swim it, or even get wet from it, or must you try that too?”

“What happens if I just dive in?”

“Then you will be as you were in the bottle.  Aware and unable to move.  but it will be very cold, and very uncomfortable, and you will be there for all eternity knowing that you put yourself there.”

Larry Niven & Jerry Pournelle Inferno  1976

A long time ago there was a country called Rhodesia. It was the breadbasket of southern Africa however it was ruled by a white minority government. This was an injustice.

That government was eventually replaced by a black majority government under Robert Mugabe rightly allowing proper self-rule. It was renamed Zimbabwe and started on a new chapter in its history

Unfortunately after a while it became clear that Mr. Mugabe was more qualified as a revolutionary than as a leader and while his ruling parties cronies did well the people did not. In order to try to retain electoral popularity started targeting white own farms which produced most of the country’s food. Many farmers left to avoid persecution which eventually led to the government confiscating property owned by white farmers and dishing it out to others who did not have experience in large-scale farming in the name of righting past wrongs.

Unfortunately this not only led to economic calamity but it led to food shortages as Zimbabwe which was once a net food exporter suddenly could not feed itself. After two decades it’s actually reached the point where the country is considering giving land back to this farmers in order to keep itself fed:

Among remaining farmers who have been recommended for a reprieve of Mr Mugabe’s edict that whites can no longer own land in Zimbabwe is Elizabeth Mitchell, a poultry farmer who produces 100,000 day-old chicks each week.

Her farm, Barquest, which lies around 160 miles south of Harare in Masvingo Province, had been allocated by the government to Walter Mzembi, the tourism minister, but he recently retreated after the provincial leadership backed her request to stay.

Shuvai Mahofa, Masvingo’s Provincial Affairs Minister, has recommended five more white farmers be issued with 99-year leases because their operations were, she said, of “strategic economic importance”.

Decades later the country has still not recovered.

Yet today South Africa is poised to follow in their footsteps:

South Africa‘s parliament has passed a motion that could lead to the seizure of land from white farmers without paying them compensation.

Passed by an overwhelming majority of 241 votes to 83 votes against, the proposal to amend Section 25 of the constitution would allow expropriation of land without any financial recompense.

It was put forward by the radical left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party, whose leader Julius Malema told the country’s parliament: “We must ensure that we restore the dignity of our people without compensating the criminals who stole our land.”

And the attacks on farmers have already begun, in fact they’ve been ongoing:

White farmers in South Africa claim they are being targeted in a series of brutal attacks over land that are being overlooked by police and implicitly encouraged by the country’s parliament.

Activist groups promoting the rights of white people in the country claim there have been 90 recorded attacks in 2018 so far, with one farmer murdered every five days on average.

There is no official data supporting the idea that white farmers are more likely to be victims of attacks in South Africa, and the government strongly denies white people are being deliberately targeted and says farm murders are part of South Africa’s wider violent crime problem.

But the sheer brutality of the reported attacks – and the growing anger of a community in South Africa that believes it is being persecuted – are increasingly raising concerns.

and others aren’t all that subtle about it:

Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) leader Julius Malema, who recently declared his party was “cutting the throat of whiteness”, denied white farmers were being killed. “We don’t know violence, we know negotiations,” Malema told a packed Human Rights Day rally in Mpumalanga Stadium on Wednesday.

“And we are very robust in our engagement sometimes. A racist country like Australia says: ‘The white farmers are being killed in South Africa.’ We are not killing them. Now Australia says: ‘Malema, EFF want to kill white farmers, they must come to Australia.’

“If they want to go, they must go. They must leave the keys to their tractors because we want to work the land, they must leave the keys to their houses because we want to stay in those houses. They must leave everything they did not come here with in South Africa and go to Australia.”

Why is South Africa not learning the lessons of Zimbabwe? Well I talked about the reasons 5 years ago at the time of Nelson Mandela’s death:

Without question the removal of the evil Apartheid laws was a positive good and franchise being extended to all citizens is simple justice. A People must have the right to govern themselves and a government that doesn’t reflect the consent of the governed is unjust.

What is not axiomatic is that a popularly elected government will govern well.

The people have freely chosen to elect The African National Congress for 20 years by landslide majorities. That party has failed to stem unemployment, has seen life expectancy drop by nearly a decade during their rule and been a haven for murder and rape.

Some have already sounded the warning alarms on this course of action:

If the South African government seizes private property for free, someone somewhere within the economy will have to pay, whether directly through loss in current and future on farm job opportunities as well as export revenues, or through protracted economic decline that will erode the purchasing power of money, losses in pensions and savings, and deindustrialisation that will destroy future economic growth and off-farm job opportunities for the current generation.

And have spoken basic truths aloud:

Mr Broad said an “even bigger humanitarian crisis”, like a food shortage, could emerge if the situation escalated.

“The great lesson from Zimbabwe is when you value your farmers, you have food on the supermarket shelves,” he said.

If the goal was a prosperous and well fed South Africa that advice and example from history would be noted but for Marxists and Socialists the goals are not a prosperous and well fed South Africa but a South Africa governed by prosperous and well fed Marxist Socialists.

And when such people fail to govern well, as they invariably do, a scapegoat is required to pacify the people and the farmers of South Africa have been elected, and if such a decision leads to economic disaster and famine among the people, as long as that result doesn’t affect the ruling parties, they will shrug it off and proclaim any who question their decision as racists.

The saddest thing about what is going to happen is that unlike Mugabe in Zimbabwe where he ruled with an iron fist and brought this disaster down upon his land South Africa had Mandela who choose not to be a dictator and left an actual democracy allowing the people to freely choose their own path and yet they have chosen the same path as Mugabe.

Democracies and Republics always get the Government’s they deserve, I had hoped that after decades of oppression by a minority and bad government by the majority South Africans might have decided they deserved better.

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Cannot vouch for the modernity of the map. I’ll put a new one up if this one is outdated.

by baldilocks

Sitting in for Fausta.

I’ve been putting off commentary on this.

White South African farmers will be removed from their land after a landslide vote in parliament.

The country’s constitution is now likely to be amended to allow for the confiscation of white-owned land without compensation, following a motion brought by radical Marxist opposition leader Julius Malema.

It passed by 241 votes for to 83 against after a vote on Tuesday, and the policy was a key factor in new president Cyril Ramaphosa’s platform after he took over from Jacob Zuma in February.

Mr Malema said the time for ‘reconciliation is over’. ‘Now is the time for justice,’ News24 reported.

As a teenager, I read James Michener’s The Covenant. It’s Michener’s usual fare, a historical novel, this one based on South Africa and the history which led to the country’s existence. Just a few minutes ago, I downloaded an audiobook version from the LA Public Library.

Since I have the luxury of time to refresh my reading on this country, I’ll save any in-depth commentary on this specific situation for another post. But I don’t have to do a refresher course on human nature.

I’ve seen the non-South African opinion sides forming among my friend and, yes, with some notable exceptions, those opinions are formed along the color line. Both white and black South Africans have legitimate grievances. Here’s the thing, once all grievances are addressed, even unto death, where does it end? Spoiler: it doesn’t end.

Regarding a potential tribal war here in the US, I said this six years ago.

The God of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob reserves vengeance to Himself, and instructs Jewish and Christian believers to forego it. But even if one does not believe in Him, it’s easy to see the chaos which is nearly always brought about by the unending cycle of human vengeance. You murder/enslave/oppress mine, then I take vengeance and murder/enslave/oppress yours. Then you take vengeance and murder/enslave/oppress more of mine. Then I …

Funny how every single proponent of vengeance manages to forget this over and over.

Juliette Akinyi Ochieng has been blogging since 2003 as baldilocks. Her older blog is here.  She published her first novel, Tale of the Tigers: Love is Not a Game in 2012.

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 People who say, “I vote for the man, not the party” are therefore fools, blown around by the wind and prone to believe whatever they see on TV, because when you vote for the man, you get the party

RS McCain: Pulling at the other end of the Rope

Now that the Mandela memorial service is over and his funeral service a day away it’s time to look at the state of South Africa since his initial election.

Electorally it’s no surprise to anyone that since 1994 Nelson Mandela’s African National Congress has dominated the electoral landscape.  Mandela own election was practically a foregone conclusion.  He won the election in 1994 with over 62% of the vote and his African national congress won 252 seats in the 400 seat parliament.

It’s fair to say that problems of transitioning out of white minority rule was the primary duty of Mandela and by any standard that was admirably done.  His decision to not seek re-election and give up power that he could have kept was key to ensure democratic rule.

But the nation didn’t just get Mandela in power, it got the ANC in power and while Mandela didn’t run in 1999 the ANC did

In 1999 ANC did even better than in 1994 electing Thabo Mbeki with 66.35% and winning 266 seats in parlament.  In 2005 the trend continued as Mbeki was reelected with 69.69% of the vote and the ANC parliamentary majorly went to 279 seats.

Mbeki resigned in Sept 2008 over a corruption case involving Jacob Zuma who would win the presidency in 2009 for the ANC with 65.9% of the vote and 264 seats figures better than Mandela’s initial election but the lowest level of support for the ANC since then.

So the ANC, the party of Mandela has ruled the Country for 20 years. with solid overwhelming majorities.  In fact the irony is ANC’s  worst electoral showing was the year Mandela ran.   The question is:  What kind of job have they done for South Africa?

Well one simple measure of how a country is doing is the unemployment rate.  Let’s look at the IMF figures:

In 1990 the year that Nelson Mandela was released South Africa’s unemployment rate was at 18.78% doubling the 1980 rate of 9.24%.  By the first year of free elections (1994) it was up to 22.89%.  There was a sudden drop in the rate in 1995 to 16.71% but by 1997 the rate was back over 20% (20.95%) and since h left office in 1999 through 2010 the rate has averaged 25.76%  from a high of 30.41% in (2002) and a low of 22.23% (2007).

The current rate in the 3rd quarter of 2013 according to government stats is 24.7%


Another excellent measure of a county is life expectancy at the time of Mandela’s election let’s take a look at the trend since 1985

South Africa life expectancy 1985-2010
South Africa life expectancy 1985-2010

You would think that the end of incredible repression would increase, not decrease life expectancy.  A lot of this has to do with the AIDS rate:

More than five million people in South Africa are HIV-positive – about 10% of the total population.

Last year more than 260,000 people with Aids died – almost half the figure of all those who died in the country.

and the future is not bright:

At least 28% of South African schoolgirls are HIV positive compared with 4% of boys because “sugar daddies” are exploiting them, Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi has said.

He said 94,000 schoolgirls also fell pregnant in 2011, and 77,000 had abortions at state facilities, The Sowetan newspaper reports.

So under ANC rule South Africa has a quarter of its work force idle.  More than a quarter of schoolgirls HIV positive and  Life expectancy down a full 1/6.

And we haven’t even talked the murder rate at 31.3 per 100,000 (by comparison even with the Cartel violence Mexico’s murder rate is 22 per 100,000)

As the LA times reports

South Africa has some of the world’s highest rates of violent crime, with casualty figures mounting like those in a small war. The country had slowly whittled down its murder rate since 1995, but this year’s marginal increase raised fears that the battle against crime may have stalled.

The Institute for Security Studies, a South African think tank, said the figures were presented in a “vague” manner, making analysis difficult. Only the percentage change was provided, without the raw figures.

In fairness the murder rate the year Mandela was elected it was 64.9 higher than Detroit.  Now they are doing better than Detroit.  Let’s look at where South Africa’s killings are taking place

Residents in low-income areas, the analysis shows, are far more likely to be murdered than their middle and high-income counterparts. Half of South Africa’s murders occur in only 13% or 143 out of 1 127 of police precincts.

A vast majority of the average of 43 murders that take place daily do not make the news. They happen in areas where crime and violence are part of the daily despair of residents who already feel marginalised and forgotten by media and politicians.

Remember the person writing this article is a person trying to downplay the violence in South Africa.

As for Rape:

Interpol says South Africa is the world’s rape capital and less than 1% of rape cases are reported to police. According to a reliable website that compiles rape statistics this has had a detrimental effect on successfully pursuing rape cases in the country.

How bad is it? This bad::

South Africa’s parliament issued a reprimand to police Monday after media outlets reported that police stations across the country were running out of rape kits

Mind you all of this is after two decades of rule by the African National Congress duly elected and regularly re-elected by the free people of South Africa.

Without question the removal of the evil Apartheid laws was a positive good and franchise being extended to all citizens is simple justice.  A People must have the right to govern themselves and a government that doesn’t reflect the consent of the governed is unjust.

What is not axiomatic is that a popularly elected government will govern well.

The people have freely chosen to elect The African National Congress for 20 years by landslide majorities.  That party has failed to stem unemployment,   has seen life expectancy drop by nearly a decade during their rule and been a haven for murder and rape.

Yesterday spectacle to the world showing how South Africans  has progressed under the management of the leftist African National congress.  It’s been a great time for the country “except maybe for the people who got killed or raped.”

I’m sure some will think this a rather hard critique, some might even throw an epithet at me for it (remember there are five a’s in raaaaacist).  To those critics of all races, creeds and political beliefs I ask this question:

Would any one of you choose to move to such a country, raise your children in such a country or encourage your sons and daughters to do so?

Update: While the media is busy discussing Angelo-American-Danish relations almost nobody in media seemed to notice or bother covering the booing of the President of South Africa

But apparently the South African president did

Perhaps the booing might have something to do with this:

The question is: Will they make the ANC pay at the ballot box?